Trials

South Asian communities in the UK experience disproportionate maternal and child health inequalities linked to non-recommended infant feeding practices, limited health literacy, and socioeconomic constraints. Participatory learning and action (PLA) is effective in low- and middle-income countries, but high-income evidence is scarce. This pilot assessed the feasibility of a community facilitator-led PLA intervention to improve infant feeding among South Asian families in East London. A three-arm pilot feasibility cluster randomised controlled trial (ISRCTN10234623) was conducted in Tower Hamlets and Newham, East London (May-September 2022), with 12 wards randomised 1:1:1 to face-to-face PLA, online PLA, or usual care. Multilingual community facilitators delivered eight biweekly sessions over 14 weeks. Feasibility outcomes were assessed against prespecified Go/Stop criteria; exploratory outcomes included child feeding behaviours (Children's Eating Behaviour Questionnaire, CEBQ), parental feeding style (Parental Feeding Style Questionnaire, PFSQ), and child BMI Z-scores. Of 263 enrolled participants, 261 had a recorded trial arm allocation; consent to the pilot feasibility study was 70.7% (186/263; 95% CI 65.0-75.9%) meeting the [≥]50% Go criterion. Attendance was 37% (Tower Hamlets 59%, Newham 29%), below the [≥]80% Go threshold. Six-month retention was 54.8% (Tower Hamlets 78%, Newham 48.5%; 95% CI 41.8-55.3%), triggering the Definite Stop criterion. Significant baseline imbalances included BMI Z-score (p = 0.005), ethnicity, borough, and education; no between-arm BMI differences were observed at follow-up (p = 0.249). CEBQ and PFSQ baseline completion was 24.5% and 23.0%, with no usable follow-up data. PLA Phases 3 and 4 were not completed by any group; all participants providing feedback reported it acceptable. Recruitment was feasible and the intervention acceptable, but a Definite Stop criterion was triggered in Newham, no group completed the full PLA cycle, and outcome data were insufficient for evaluation. A definitive trial requires stratified randomisation, digitised multilingual data collection, participant reimbursement, and explicit PLA phase-completion criteria.

Importance Non-inferiority trials are becoming increasingly popular in abdominal surgery. The non- inferiority margin is critical in the interpretation and conclusion of these trials. Objective This systematic review aims to assess the methodological and reporting quality of non- inferiority randomized controlled trials in abdominal surgery. Evidence Review Non-inferiority trials were systematically identified by searching Ovid Medline, Embase and the CENTRAL databases from 2006 until December 2025. Randomized controlled trials in adult patients with any type of abdominal surgical intervention in at least one trial arm and a sample size greater than or equal to 100 were eligible for inclusion. The primary outcome was the definition of the non- inferiority margin. Secondary outcomes were the reporting of the non-inferiority margin, the robustness of its estimation, the uncertainty of the point estimate and the adequacy of conclusions. Findings A total of 11 045 trials were identified, of which 101 were eligible, enrolling 44 370 patients. Most trials provided a rationale for the non-inferiority design, while six (5.9%) trials did not. Previous literature was commonly used (n=56; 55.4%), but the non-inferiority margin was most often based on a clinical fixed margin or on historical comparison of the treatment and the active comparator. Based on the margin, investigators tolerated substantially worse outcomes of the treatment compared to the comparator. Conclusions were appropriate based on the confidence interval and the predefined non- inferiority margin in 88 (87.1%) of trials. The clinical judgement of the conclusion was overall adequate. Confidence interval estimations were reported in 16 (15.8%) of trials. Simulation studies were limited by the reporting quality. Conclusions and Relevance Clinical fixed margins are commonly used in abdominal surgery non-inferiority randomized controlled trials, however, substantial shortcomings in reporting limit the interpretability and reproduction of study findings. Based on the findings of this study, guidance on surgical- specific non-inferiority margin definitions is needed.

Bayesian borrowing of external information can improve trial efficiency, particularly in pediatric and rare disease settings where patient populations are limited, but may introduce bias and inflate the Type~I error rate when the trial differs from external studies. Recent U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) draft Bayesian guidance emphasizes careful evaluation of external information, prior specification, and assessment of operating characteristics. This paper compares three meta-analytic-predictive (MAP)-based methods for Bayesian borrowing: the MAP prior, robust MAP (RMAP) prior, and self-adapting mixture (SAM) prior. An adaptive platform trial design in Rett syndrome is used as a case study. Simulation studies evaluate frequentist operating characteristics under varying prior--data conflict, between-study heterogeneity, treatment effects, and clinically significant differences (CSDs) for the SAM prior. The MAP prior achieved the greatest efficiency when external and current data were compatible but exhibited the largest bias under substantial prior--data conflict. The RMAP priors improved robustness through fixed robust-component weights, whereas the SAM prior adaptively adjusted borrowing and was less sensitive to prior--data conflict while retaining efficiency gains when the data were compatible. Although the CSD influenced the degree of adaptive borrowing, as reflected by effective sample size, it had only a modest impact on frequentist operating characteristics. Sensitivity analyses using a skeptical robust component yielded similar qualitative conclusions, while accentuating the differences between the MAP and RMAP priors. These findings provide guidance for evaluating and selecting MAP-based borrowing strategies before trial implementation, particularly in rare disease settings, consistent with current FDA recommendations.

We present our Stage-1 Registered Report as a full clinical trial article with all methods in past tense and including mock results, table and figures for the primary analysis. To remind the reader that this Stage-1 article is written before data collection, we highlight in color that these mock results are only for illustrative purposes and will be replaced by the actual results in the Stage-2 Registered Report. Background In patients experiencing out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, optimization of oxygen delivery during cardiopulmonary resuscitation is a critical. Although both positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) and zero end-expiratory pressure (ZEEP) are employed during CPR, their respective impacts on clinically relevant outcomes is yet to be clearly established. Methods This investigator-initiated, pragmatic, registry-based, multicenter, triple-blind randomized controlled superiority trial evaluates whether applying 8 cm H2O PEEP during cardiopulmonary resuscitation improves outcomes compared with ZEEP in adults with non-traumatic, non-drowning out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. Pre-randomized CPR kits (1:1 PEEP vs. sham) were used by ambulance sites during manual ventilation throughout the resuscitation process. The primary analysis was conducted in the principal stratum of patients who received either a supraglottic airway or endotracheal tube. The primary outcome was neurological status at hospital discharge measured by a utility-weighted score on the modified Rankin Scale. Secondary outcomes included prehospital return of spontaneous circulation, 30-day survival, and 6-month quality of life. The primary safety outcome was clinically significant pneumothorax.

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) disproportionately burdens underserved communities, where social determinants of health (SDOH) perpetuate persistent disparities. Family-based interventions leveraging social support represent a promising yet understudied approach. We describe the rationale, design, and methods of the Skills-based Educational strategies for the Reduction of Vascular Events in Orange County (SERVE OC) RCT and present baseline characteristics of enrolled families. Methods: SERVE OC is a 2-arm RCT of 190 Latino and Vietnamese families (486 individuals) randomized to the family-based intervention or individual self-management. The intervention was grounded in social network theory while employing community engaged strategies. Primary outcomes include achieving ideal cardiovascular health (CVH) defined by AHA Life's Essential 8 (LE8) and systolic blood pressure reduction at 12, 24, and 36 months. Baseline assessments include demographics, LE8, psychosocial factors, food security, and SDOH. Descriptive statistics and regression analyses examined cohort characteristics and associations between SDOH, food security, and LE8. Results: Over 83% of participants had suboptimal LE8 scores. Average adult total LE8 scores were 66.61 {plus minus}11.96, with physical activity as the weakest domain, compared to an average of 76.52{plus minus}10.15 in children. Greater SDOH burden and food security were associated with significantly lower odds of ideal CVH and lower LE8 scores respectively. Conclusions: SERVE OC demonstrates the feasibility of enrolling families in community-engaged RCT targeting CVD disparities in underserved population. Baseline findings confirm substantial CVD risk and SDOH burden underscoring the need for multi-level, culturally tailored interventions. Trials results will inform scalable, family-focused strategies for CVD prevention across the life course. Clinical Trial Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/; Unique Identifier: NCT05641519.

Background Mirror therapy (MT)-specifically paradigms using mirror visual feedback (MVF)-is widely used in neurorehabilitation; however, mechanistic implementations vary substantially in movement content, rhythmicity and attentional demands. This protocol describes an acute mechanistic, within-participant fNIRS screening study designed to compare three prespecified upper-limb mirror-therapy task paradigms and to quantify associated subjective experience after each condition in healthy adults during a single visit. Methods and analysis This is a single-centre, within-participant, randomised crossover study conducted at Wuhan Wuchang Hospital (Wuhan, China). Healthy adults aged 18-35 years will complete three task conditions once each in a counterbalanced order using a 3*3 Latin-square scheme: UMT1 (task-oriented rhythmic functional movement), UMT2 (open-ended free movement with auditory control), and UMT3 (non-functional rhythmic movement). fNIRS will be acquired using the NirSmart-6000A system during a standardised block design. The primary outcome is ROI-level HbO activation quantified as GLM-derived {beta} estimates within the prespecified primary ROIs (bilateral SM1/M1 and bilateral PMC). Secondary outcomes include ROI-level windowed {Delta}HbO (5-20 s post-onset relative to the immediately preceding rest; descriptive only), ROI-level {Delta}HbR, and post-condition subjective ratings (illusion, immersion, confusion and fatigue; 1-7 Likert). Condition effects will be analysed using linear mixed-effects models with fixed effects for condition and period and prespecified multiplicity-adjusted pairwise contrasts. Ethics and dissemination Ethics approval was obtained from the Ethics Committee of Wuchang Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology (Approval No.: 2025-112-01; approved on 2025-08-21). The study is expected to be minimal risk. Findings will be disseminated through publication of this protocol manuscript and subsequent results manuscripts and conference presentations. Trial registration number Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR2600116634). This study is conducted as a prespecified mechanistic sub-study under the overarching registered project.

Background Late-stage cancer incidence is being considered as an earlier endpoint in cancer-screening trials, but its trial-level association with cancer-specific mortality may depend on evidence selection and endpoint harmonization. We evaluated the robustness of this association to source-verified additions. Methods We reconstructed the PubMed corpus underlying a 41-comparison review. Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview was used only to prioritize reports for blinded human reassessment. Reviewers determined eligibility, linked reports from the same trial, harmonized endpoints, and verified comparison-level data. We recalculated unweighted Pearson correlations overall and by cancer type after adding earliest-compatible trial comparisons. Results Among 1209 candidate records, 996 PDFs were assessed. Thirty-three reports absent from the source review were prioritized; 26 were eligible, representing 18 trials, and 8 provided compatible comparisons. Adding these comparisons increased the dataset from 41 to 49 and attenuated the overall correlation from 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.55 to 0.85) to 0.59 (95% CI = 0.37 to 0.75). Updated correlations were 0.49 (95% CI = -0.26 to 0.87) for breast, -0.23 (95% CI = -0.71 to 0.40) for colorectal, and 0.83 (95% CI = 0.54 to 0.95) for lung cancer. One sparse-event comparison influenced the colorectal estimate. Conclusions The overall association was sensitive to evidence composition, and cancer-specific stability varied. Late-stage incidence should be evaluated by cancer type and with prespecified sensitivity analyses for evidence selection and endpoint definitions. Model-assisted prioritization cannot replace human eligibility review, trial reconciliation, and source verification.

Abstract Preventable neonatal deaths remain a major public health problem in Zimbabwe, where near-universal antenatal and facility-delivery coverage coexist with a rising neonatal mortality rate. This study evaluated whether institutionalising three core "vital signs" of the community health system (a trained village health worker (VHW) workforce, functional community governance structures, and modified women's and men's participatory learning and action groups) reduces preventable neonatal deaths in Mashonaland West Province. An embedded QUAN (qual) mixed-methods design was used, with a two-arm, parallel-group cluster-randomised controlled trial as the dominant strand. Fifty-two ward-level clusters were randomised 1:1 to the institutionalised community health system package or to standard Ministry of Health and Child Care community services, and 984 pregnant women were enrolled between 1 September 2020 and 31 October 2021, with each mother-infant pair followed to 28 days after delivery, yielding 973 mother-infant pairs for intention-to-treat analysis. The primary outcome was neonatal death within 28 days of life, expressed per 1,000 live births. The primary analysis used a three-level mixed-effects log-binomial regression model with cluster and community-health-worker random intercepts, adjusted for pre-specified covariates. Supervised machine-learning classifiers with leave-one-cluster-out cross-validation, Cox proportional-hazards regression, and multilevel logistic models were fitted as supplementary analyses. An embedded longitudinal process evaluation used key informant interviews and focus group discussions, which were analysed thematically and integrated with the quantitative findings. The neonatal mortality rate was 44.8 per 1,000 live births in the intervention arm versus 110.1 per 1,000 in the control arm. The adjusted risk ratio for neonatal death was 0.43 (95% CI 0.26-0.70; p < 0.001), a 57% relative reduction, with a number needed to treat of 16 mother-infant pairs (95% CI 11-29). Low birthweight (<2,500 g), birth interval under two years, and low community women's literacy were the strongest risk factors, while trained VHWs, functional community governance, early antenatal care, and sustained participatory group attendance were independently protective. The women's and men's groups were protective in a dose-dependent manner, becoming significant at four or more cycles (about 14 meetings) (adjusted odds ratio 0.71; 95% CI 0.60-0.85; p = 0.001). A random forest classifier discriminated against neonatal deaths with a cross-validated area under the curve of 0.842 and a sensitivity of 0.912. Qualitative findings converged with the trial results, identifying male engagement, earlier care-seeking, danger-sign literacy, social-network activation, and community death audits as the behavioural and structural mechanisms of change. Institutionalising the community health system package (trained VHWs, functional governance, early antenatal engagement, and sustained participatory groups) was associated with a substantial reduction in preventable neonatal deaths. The findings suggest that in high-coverage, high-mortality settings, the binding constraint is structural rather than clinical, and that scaling functional community governance and workforce infrastructure in the most disadvantaged communities may accelerate progress toward neonatal survival targets. The principal limitations are a one-year follow-up period, the rarity of neonatal death, and concurrent national programming that only partially reached the control clusters. Trial registration: Pan African Clinical Trials Registry, PACTR202607591142118 (https://pactr.samrc.ac.za/TrialDisplay.aspx?TrialID=PACTR202607591142118); registered retrospectively on 7 July 2026.

Background: The relative merits of infrainguinal bypass and primary major lower limb amputation (MLLA) for chronic limb-threatening ischaemia (CLTI) remain uncertain, and the baseline profiles of patients selected for each strategy are poorly described. Methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis were undertaken in accordance with PRISMA 2020 and prospectively registered (PROSPERO: CRD42022356094). MEDLINE, Embase, CENTRAL, and CINAHL were searched from inception to March 2025. Prospective studies of adults with CLTI undergoing primary infrainguinal bypass or primary MLLA were eligible. Mortality, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and subsequent amputation outcomes were synthesised using random-effects meta-analysis of proportions. Baseline comorbidity profiles were also extracted. Results: Twenty-seven studies involving 6,576 patients were included: 5,779 underwent infrainguinal bypass and 797 underwent MLLA. After bypass, pooled mortality was 3.7% at 30 days (95% CI 2.8%-4.9%, I2 = 49.4%), 18.5% at 1 year (95% CI 15.6%-21.9%, I2 = 62.3%), and 54.3% at 5 years (95% CI 50.5%-58.0%, I2 = 0%). After MLLA, pooled mortality was 9.2% at 30 days (95% CI 4.1%-19.3%, I2 = 73.5%), 28.5% at 1 year (95% CI 13.3%-51.0, I2 = 70.8%), and 39.9% at 2 years (95% CI 0.3%-99.3, I2 = 90.5%), although longer-term estimates were limited by sparse data and marked heterogeneity. Thirty-day MACE was 6.5% (95% CI 4.3%-9.7, I2 = 63.5%) after bypass and 2.8% after MLLA (95% CI 0.1%-37.6%, I2 = 0%). Early subsequent major amputation after bypass occurred in 3.9% of patients (95% CI 2.0%-7.7%, I2 = 91.2%), rising to 16.2% at 1 year (95% CI 12.6%-20.5%, I2 = 82.0%) and 33.3% at 3 years (95% CI 20.1%-49.8%, I2 = 0%). Early re-amputation after MLLA occurred in 10.9% of patients (95% CI 4.5%-24.4%, I2 = 40.3%). Baseline comorbidity burden was high in both groups, with substantial heterogeneity across studies. Conclusions: CLTI carries a poor prognosis regardless of treatment strategy. Infrainguinal bypass is associated with lower early mortality and better early limb preservation than primary MLLA, but long-term survival remains poor and later limb failure is common. Primary MLLA is not a low-risk alternative. Better contemporary comparative evidence utilising modern causal inference approaches is needed to support individualised decision-making.

Purpose: Lung cancer screening (LCS) with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) reduces lung cancer mortality, yet screening participation remains low. We evaluated whether a brief informational video nudge delivered immediately before a scheduled clinical encounter increased LCS ordering and baseline LCS completion. Patients and Methods: We conducted a randomized feasibility trial within Kaiser Permanente Colorado from March through October 2025. LCS-eligible patients with an upcoming primary care or pulmonology appointment were assigned to intervention or usual care based on birth month. Intervention patients were split into two group, a group who received the LCS informational video nudge via text message within 24 hours of an eligible appointment; and second group who received the text plus a QR code video link during appointment rooming. Outcomes included LCS orders, baseline LCS-LDCT completion, and video engagement. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate factors associated with LCS ordering. Results: Among 1,093 patients, 549 were assigned to intervention and 544 to usual care. Intervention patients were more likely to receive an LCS order within 1 day of their appointment (22.6% vs 16.4%; p=.010) and any time during follow-up (32.6% vs 24.1%; p=.002). Baseline LCS-LDCT completion was 51% higher in the intervention group, although the difference was not statistically significant (8.6% vs 5.7%; p=.078). Among the intervention group, 93 individuals (17%) viewed the video, generating 114 total views, and viewers watched an average of 79% of the video. Most views (82.5%) occurred through text-message delivery rather than QR codes. Conclusion: A brief, low-burden LCS informational video delivered immediately before a clinical encounter and integrated into existing workflows significantly increased LCS ordering and was associated with higher screening completion. Timely, scalable digital nudges may provide an effective strategy for improving LCS participation. Based on the observed effectiveness, feasibility, and efficiency of the intervention, KPCO incorporated the behavioral nudge into standard clinical care in February 2026.

Background. Cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome affects nearly 90% of US adults, yet most individuals at early, modifiable stages remain unidentified outside clinical care. Blood donation centers offer a scalable, non-clinical venue for CKM screening, but the potential benefit of screening in this context remains unclear. We projected the population-level impact of effective digital return of results (ROR) to inform the design of a pragmatic trial. Methods. We developed a Monte Carlo simulation (100,000 iterations) of the incident major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) preventable by ROR-prompted, guideline-concordant follow-up among donors in CKM Stages 1-2. The estimand counts only events averted by donors who act because of ROR; the intervention effect was modeled directly on strictly positive support, and action was translated into prevented events through a hazard-based cumulative-incidence difference that counts each donor at most once. We evaluated 18 design cells (donor volumes 300,000, 1 million, and 8 million/year; 5- and 10-year horizons; action-rate gains of +10, +20, and +30 percentage points [pp]) and, in a complementary two-arm simulation, the assurance (expected power) of detecting the effect in a single deployment. Results. Under the primary +20 pp scenario, ROR at a single large blood center (300,000 donors/year) is projected to prevent a median of 2,201 events (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 1,099-4,364) over 10 years, scaling to 58,526 (29,154-116,769) at the national donor pool. All 18 design cells had strictly positive 95% lower bounds. The number needed to screen was 136 and the screening cost $2,045 per event prevented (at $15/donor), both invariant to donor volume. Impact scaled linearly with volume and effect size but sub-linearly with the horizon. Detection of the effect was effectively certain at gains of +20 pp or larger (assurance [&ge;]99.6% in every cell and >99.9% in all but the smallest 5-year cell). Conclusions. Even under the conservative scenario, digital CKM ROR at blood donation centers is projected to prevent hundreds to tens of thousands of incident cardiometabolic events at a screening cost per event well within accepted prevention benchmarks, providing prospective, quantitative justification for a pragmatic, randomized evaluation of digital ROR in non-clinical screening settings.

Background: Heatwrap is recommended for acute low back pain (ALBP), and previous research found heatwrap plus exercise more effective than each intervention alone. While recommended by clinical guidelines, their impact on mechanistic outcomes is unknown. This trial aimed to (i) assess immediate and short-term effects of heatwrap alone or combined with exercise, compared with a sham heatwrap, on pain sensitivity, lumbar muscle activity, current pain intensity, and trunk flexion range of motion, and (ii) explore whether changes in pain sensitivity and lumbar muscle activity are associated with changes in clinical symptoms from baseline to 1-week follow-up. Methods: A randomised controlled trial took place at a single research center. Of 315 individuals screened for eligibility, 99 adults with ALBP were recruited and assigned to one of three intervention groups: heatwrap plus exercise (n=34), heatwrap alone (n=33) or sham heatwrap (n=32). Interventions were applied for one hour at the first visit, and immediate effects were measured. Then, interventions were applied for 7 days, and short-term effects were measured at 1-week follow-up. Outcomes included pressure pain threshold, temporal summation of pain, flexion-relaxation ratio, trunk range of motion and current pain intensity. Results: Heatwrap and exercise did not produce greater effects over time than heatwrap alone or a sham heatwrap on all outcomes, and changes in sensorimotor outcomes at one week were not associated with changes in symptoms. Conclusions: Heatwrap and/or exercises did not influence specifically the potential sensorimotor mechanisms tested in individuals with ALBP. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov; registration number: NCT03986047

Objectives Emergency department (ED) crowding is recognised as an important public health concern internationally, and is driven principally by exit block, the shortage of inpatient beds for patients requiring admission. This study aimed to evaluate whether a complex intervention targeting hospital occupancy improved ED patient flow, and quantified the change in attendances. Methods A controlled interrupted time series using weekly, publicly reported Public Health Scotland data from 1 January 2022 to 1 February 2026. The multi-component intervention focused on reducing hospital occupancy and included additional adult social care funding; engagement with regional social care providers; accelerated implementation of the Discharge without Delay programme; re-evaluation of whole-hospital escalation thresholds and response; resource and data supporting inpatient department reductions in length of stay; and additional investment in remote clinical assessment. The intervention commenced at a large tertiary ED on 01 February 2025. Primary outcomes were the proportions of attendances spending [&ge;]4, [&ge;]8 and [&ge;]12 hours in the ED. The secondary outcome was attendance volume. Segmented regression was fitted with a contemporaneous control series, seasonal terms and autoregressive moving average errors. Long waits were additionally illustrated as potentially avoided deaths. Results The analysis covered 161 pre-intervention and 52 post-intervention weeks. Relative to pre-intervention levels, the proportion of attendances waiting over 4 hours fell by 10.4% (95% CI 1.6 to 19.2%), by 16.4% (95%CI 1.3 to 31.5%) over 8 hours and by 24.3% (95%CI 2.6 to 46.1%) over 12 hours. Using established associations between long ED waits and excess mortality, by one-year the intervention was potentially associated with 54 fewer excess deaths (95%CI 19 to 93). Attendances rose by 3.8% (95%CI 1.3 to 6.4%) against the counterfactual. Conclusions A complex intervention targeting hospital occupancy was associated with a reduction in long ED waits despite rising attendances. Interventions addressing hospital occupancy can meaningfully improve ED crowding.

Background. Videolaryngoscopy still requires adjuncts or hyperangulated rescue in a clinically important minority, and bedside screening discriminates modestly. Point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) of the anterior airway is a promising alternative, but existing prediction models are opaque or assume a pre-specified functional form. We developed and internally validated a parsimonious, fully disclosed POCUS risk equation whose form is recovered from data and whose structural properties are machine-checked by formal proof - to our knowledge the first formally verified clinical risk predictor - following TRIPOD+AI 2024. Methods. In a prospective single-centre, single-operator cohort of 259 adults undergoing elective videolaryngoscopy (no-Easy airway 68/259, 26.3%), Sequentially Thresholded Least Squares with bootstrap stability selection (B=300) screened a 71-term library of nine POCUS features and retained a seven-term logistic equation; a two-term bootstrap-stable model was pre-specified as robustness analysis. Internal validation used 5x10 repeated cross-validation plus temporal and device hold-outs, with pre-specified overfitting and optimism assessments. Five behavioural properties of the deployed equation were machine-checked in Lean 4. Results. Two interactions met the |c|/sigma_c>2 stability criterion: skin-to-epiglottis x skin-to-hyoid-bone distance and tongue volume x sagittal tongue area. The seven-term equation reached a 5x10 cross-validated C-statistic of 0.966 (optimism-corrected 0.968) and held across temporal and device hold-outs (0.94-0.97). Calibration-in-the-large matched prevalence, with cross-validated slope 0.90 attenuating to 0.625 out-of-time; standard recalibration restored 0.92 without loss of discrimination. The pre-specified two-term robustness model reproduced this performance (C-statistic 0.964-0.968; events-per-parameter 34; shrinkage 0.99), confirming the result is not an artefact of the screening stage. Net benefit over a clinical baseline was positive across 10-50% thresholds. All five Lean 4 theorems compiled without sorry. Conclusions. A sparse, formally verified POCUS equation predicts difficult videolaryngoscopy with high internally validated discrimination and quantified, modest overfitting. Because the equation was developed in a single-operator cohort and its inputs are operator-dependent, external validation requires prior harmonisation of the measurement protocol and operator credentialing.

Background: In Denmark, perioperative high-dose glucocorticoid treatment were step-wisely implemented for total hip arthroplasty (THA), total knee arthroplasty (TKA), and unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA). We aimed to estimate the effect of a single high dose of glucocorticoids on opioid consumption following primary THA, TKA, and UKA. Methods: This was a prespecified analysis of a multicenter natural experiment using electronic health record data. We included elective THA, TKA, or UKA surgeries performed in Eastern Denmark from 2017-2025. At each center, surgeries before implementation of high-dose glucocorticoids served as controls, whereas surgeries after implementation comprised the intervention group. The primary outcome was the between-group difference in cumulative 0-24h opioid consumption, which included preemptive end-of-surgery doses. The predefined minimal important difference was set at 5 mg IV morphine equivalents. Secondary outcomes were maximum 0-10 numerical rating scale (NRS) pain score and incidence of opioid-related adverse events within 24 hours, hospital length of stay, and days alive and out of hospital at 30 days. Results: A total of 47,317 surgeries performed at nine centers were analyzed: 13,010 controls and 34,307 in the intervention group. During the study period, five centers implemented high-dose glucocorticoids for THA patients, two for TKA/UKA patients. High-dose glucocorticoids were administered to 6% of patients before implementation versus 92% after. High-dose glucocorticoids resulted in a mean reduction of 3.8 mg intravenous (IV) morphine equivalents (95% CI 3.3;4.3). The intervention also reduced the maximum 0-24h NRS pain score by 0.8 points (99% CI 0.7;0.9), but there was no difference in adverse events, length of stay, or days alive and out of hospital. Conclusions: Implementation of high-dose glucocorticoids reduced 0-24-hour opioid consumption by 3.8 mg IV morphine equivalents after elective hip and knee arthroplasty. This difference was below the prespecified minimal important difference threshold. Online registration: https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.11.11.25339982

We propose two new tests to detect drug effects (DE) in trials of one to very few patients followed during two periods (before and after initiation of a treatment). Both methods use longitudinal natural history data to inform the estimation of each patient's DE. The first method uses a non linear mixed effect model (NLMEM) reflecting an expected natural history with a hypothetical drug effect, to estimate the Conditional Distribution of the Drug Effect (CDDE). The second method trains a Pareto Depth Analysis (PDA) algorithm, a machine learning based approach based on outlier detection, that we implement using data simulated under the NLMEM. We evaluated the two tests with a simulation study. We used data from the PROSPAX study in Autosomal Recessive Cerebellar Ataxias (ARCAs, to derive a NLMEM for the Scale for the Assessment and Rating of Ataxia score. The CDDE method provided controlled type I error and, in some scenarios, adequate corrected power, though sensitivity analyses showed vulnerability to misspecification. The PDA method demonstrated lower statistical power except with high score precision. These results highlight different strategies for quantifying treatment effects in ultra rare, patient' specific trials. They can inform methodological design for future ARCA precision therapies.

Background: Many at-risk patients lack access to genetic services due to a genetic counselor (GC) workforce shortage. Little is known about how digital alternatives impact patients with and without cancer who meet criteria for genetic testing. Methods: eREACH2 is a randomized 4-arm non-inferiority trial where pre-test (visit 1) and/or return of results (visit 2) GC counseling was replaced with a patient-centered digital intervention. Arms include: A (GC/GC), B (GC/digital), C (digital/GC) and D (digital/digital). Primary outcomes were non-inferiority in uptake of genetic services and change in genetic knowledge and general anxiety from baseline to post-disclosure of results (T0-T2). Secondary cognitive and affective outcomes were assessed using non-inferiority ANOVAs and equivalency chi-squared tests in intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses. Findings: 773 participants were recruited nationwide; 46.6% from rural areas. Mean age was 51 years (range 20-87), 13% male, 12% non-white, 29% had less than a college education, and 33% had a personal history of cancer. 584 (76%) patients completed testing (14% had a positive result, 16% had a VUS). In the primary ITT analyses, we met the non-inferiority for uptake of genetic services and anxiety, but results were inconclusive for knowledge. Secondary outcomes were heterogeneous across arms. Arm C demonstrated consistently favorable effects, while Arms B and D showed less favorable outcomes in select domains (e.g. satisfaction and MICRA). Patients who received positive or VUS results via digital disclosure had significantly higher MICRA scores - indicating greater negative response to testing. Interpretation: In this large, randomized trial of patients with and without cancer, the eREACH intervention was effective for pre-test counseling, but inconclusive for digital disclosure of results. Exploratory analyses suggest that digital delivery could be a reasonable alternative for individuals receiving negative results, while those receiving positive or VUS results may derive some short-term psychosocial benefit from GC disclosure.

Background: Clinician-scientists translate clinical observation into discovery, trials, and policy, yet this workforce is shrinking across health systems worldwide. Integrated MB-PhD training, pausing medical training to complete a PhD before clinical exposure or specialisation, is one route into this career. We aimed to evaluate the long-term value of MB-PhD training and the barriers to clinical-academic careers these face after graduation. Methods: We evaluated all 131 graduates (29.8% female) who entered the University College London (UCL) MB-PhD programme over a 25-year period (1994-2018). Bibliometric outputs were collated via an inter-linked information system. Concurrently, all 131 graduates were invited to respond to open-ended questions on career benefits and structural barriers; 99 (75.6%) responded, and responses were independently coded into themes, which were then reviewed and confirmed by a Study Group of 107 individuals, including the 91 respondents who agreed to participate further. Results: Graduates produced 5,877 publications (1,141 first-author, 819 corresponding-author), attracting 350,754 citations, with a mean relative citation ratio of 3.30 {+/-} 0.47, approximately three times the field average and sustained across three decades of programme entry. Graduates secured an estimated $157.55 million across 99 grants, released 465 public datasets, and were named investigators on 31 clinical trials across five continents. Among the 99 survey respondents, 49.5% held consultant-grade posts, 72.7% remained research-active, and 25.3% had reached senior academic grade. Open-ended responses were coded into five recurring structural barriers, subsequently confirmed by the Study Group: insufficient protected research time (72.2% of responses), unsupportive training structures and limited career opportunities (36.7%, 24.4% of responses), funding and pay barriers (22.2% of responses), and lack of mentorship or geographical/family constraints (14.4%, 13.3% of responses). Conclusions: Integrated MB-PhD training generates sustained academic productivity and leadership, but structural barriers threaten retention of graduates within clinical-academic careers. Protecting research time, stabilising funding and pay, and reducing geographic instability are needed to retain the clinician-scientists that health systems have already invested in training.

Disseminating study results to participants is an ethical responsibility for researchers but remains uncommon in low- and middle-income countries, and participants preferences for receiving study results are poorly understood. This study examined study result dissemination preferences among pregnant women in a phase III malaria prevention trial in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Participants completed an interviewer-administered questionnaire (survey) assessing their interest in and motivation for receiving trial results and preferences for dissemination methods and content. Associations between participants characteristics and dissemination preferences were explored using multivariable logistic regression analysis. Of 1172 trial participants, 96.0% (1125/1172) completed the survey, and of these 99.6% (1121/1125) wanted to learn about the trial results. The main motivation factors driving participants interest were an acknowledgment of their contribution to research (51.7%; n=579) and a better understanding of the study (45.0%; n=505). Most participants (78.9%; n=884) wanted to learn about the trial findings through written summary and a group meeting with other participants at the nearest clinic (31.1%, n=349). Multivariable regression analysis indicated that participants from rural/peri-urban clinics were more likely to choose non-electronic media dissemination approaches such as a group meeting as compared to urban-dwelling participants. Frequently selected items (>50% of participants) for content included information regarding good results of the study, purpose of the study, medical treatment advances, results specific to me, and how study was conducted. There was heterogenicity in the preference for dissemination content: compared to urban clinics rural clinics are less likely to want to learn about how and why study was conducted and medical and scientific advances. Overall, the majority wanted to learn about trial results, highlighting the importance of integrating dissemination into research activities in PNG. Variation in preferences for mode and content of dissemination between study clinics suggests that dissemination activities could be tailored to local context and preferences.

Background: Aerobic exercise is recommended during stroke rehabilitation to improve cardiorespiratory fitness and support recovery; however, participation rates remain low. While institutional and system-level barriers have been widely examined, less is known about how individual patient factors influence engagement in aerobic exercise during rehabilitation. Objectives: We aimed to determine whether depressive symptoms, apathy, self-efficacy and outcome expectations for exercise, perceived barriers, or past exercise history were associated with aerobic exercise participation in stroke rehabilitation. Methods: In this prospective cohort sub-study, adults admitted to in- or out-patient stroke rehabilitation at three urban hospitals completed validated questionnaires assessing depressive symptoms, apathy, exercise self-efficacy, outcome expectations for exercise, perceived barriers to being active, and premorbid exercise history. Participants were separated into two groups for analysis: those who completed aerobic exercise during rehabilitation and those who did not. Equivalence testing and between-group comparisons were performed. Results: Sixty-two participants were enrolled; 16 participated in aerobic exercise and 46 did not. Groups were not equivalent on any individual-level factors. Compared to non-participants, those who performed aerobic exercise had significantly higher depressive symptom scores (p=0.0025) and lower self-efficacy for exercise (p=0.0087). Non-participants demonstrated significantly higher apathy (p=0.0007). No significant differences were found for outcome expectations, perceived barriers, or exercise history. Conclusion: Depressive symptoms and lower self-efficacy did not impede aerobic exercise participation during rehabilitation. Increased apathy, however, was associated with non-participation. Findings highlight the need for individually tailored aerobic exercise prescriptions that consider motivational and affective factors to optimize engagement during stroke rehabilitation.