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Transplantation

○ Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)

Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match Transplantation's content profile, based on 13 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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The Natural Course of Peri graft Fluid Collections After Kidney Transplantation: A Serial Imaging Cohort Study.

Makki, M. M.; Davtyan, H.; Kumar, K.; Kusakabe, J.; Fernandes, E.; Antonio, P.; Refaai, K.

2026-10-20 transplantation 10.64898/2026.10.15.26364900 medRxiv
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Background. Fluid collections are common after kidney transplantation, but their prevalence at scheduled imaging and their management are inconsistent from canter to canter. We describe the cross sectional prevalence and management of perigraft collections, including an exploratory deepdrain subgroup. Methods. In this retrospective single center cohort, 146 consecutive adult kidney transplant recipients (Cleveland Clinic Weston Hospital, July 2024 to June 2025) were imaged on postoperative day 0/1 and at approximately 1 and 3 months. Routine deep drainage was avoided (n=124), 22 clinically selected recipients with perioperative anticoagulation received a deep drain. The primary outcome was cross sectional prevalence of a perigraft collection at each visit. Secondary outcomes were management among patients with a collection. Drain group comparisons were exploratory. Results. Collections were present in 29 of 146 recipients at postoperative day 0/1 (19.9%; 95% CI, 14.2 to 27.1), 71 of 146 at 1 month (48.6%; 95% CI, 40.7 to 56.7), and 34 of 146 at 3 months (23.3%; 95% CI, 17.2 to 30.8). Prevalence in the no drain group was 21.0%, 50.0%, and 23.4%, respectively; corresponding prevalence in the deep drain group was 13.6%, 40.9%, and 22.7%. Between group prevalence comparisons were not statistically significant at any time point. BMI was higher in the deep-drain group than in the no-drain group (30.04 vs 27.1 kg/m2; P=0.01). Among patients with a 1-month collection, management did not differ significantly between groups (any invasive management, 11.1% vs 16.1%; P=1.00). Among patients with a 3month collection, invasive management was more common in the deep drain group than in the no drain group (80.0% vs 13.8%; P=0.007). This comparison included only five deep-drain recipients and was confounded by clinical selection, perioperative anticoagulation, and BMI imbalance. Conclusions. Perigraft collection prevalence was highest at 1 month and lower at 3 months in this predominantly no drain cohort. Most collections were managed conservatively, and invasive treatment was uncommon in the no-drain group. The deep drain subgroup provides clinically relevant information about high risk recipients selected for drainage but cannot support causal conclusions regarding drain benefit or harm. Patient level linkage is required to distinguish persistence, resolution, and new collection formation.

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Redefining Delayed Graft Function: From Binary to Dynamic Using a Trajectory-Based Model to Evaluate Renal Recovery After Kidney Transplantation.

Makki, M. M.; Kumar, K.; Harutyun, D.; Kusakabe, J.; Fernandes, E.; Pinna, A.; Refaai, K.

2026-10-07 transplantation 10.64898/2026.10.04.26362581 medRxiv
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Background Delayed graft function (DGF) is among the most used metrics in transplant medicine, yet its prevailing definition-dialysis requirement within the first seven postoperative days lacks granularity and fails to capture the dynamic nature of graft recovery. It reflects a treatment decision rather than graft biology, varies by centre practice, and offers no temporal information about the pace or pattern of recovery. This study proposes a trajectory-based framework using serial serum creatinine measurements across three biologically defined time windows to capture the dynamic nature of early renal recovery. Methods We retrospectively analysed 205 adult kidney transplant recipients at Cleveland Clinic Weston Hospital in 2025. Donor groups included living donors, donation after brain death (DBD), donation after circulatory death with normothermic regional perfusion (DCD-NRP), and DCD without NRP. Creatinine slopes were estimated for Days 1-7, 7-30, and 30-90 using ordinary least-squares regression. Logistic regression assessed the predictive performance of each trajectory window for DGF, adjusting for Kidney Donor Profile Index, cold ischemia time, BMI, and donor type. Results DCD non-NRP kidneys showed negligible early creatinine decline (slope +0.02) compared to DBD (-0.71) and DCD-NRP (-0.57) grafts during Days 1-7. During Days 7-30, DCD-NRP kidneys showed accelerated recovery and converged toward DBD-level trajectories, whereas DCD non-NRP grafts remained sluggish. Predictive modelling identified the Day 7-30 trajectory had the strongest discrimination for DGF, with AUC 0.83, pseudo-R2 0.25, and the lowest AIC (181.73), outperforming Days 1-7 (AUC 0.75) and 30-90 (AUC 0.79). DGF rates were 0% in living donors, 25.5% in DBD, 20.7% in DCD-NRP, and 58.9% in DCD non-NRP recipients. Conclusions A trajectory-based creatinine model provides more informative prognostic value than the conventional binary DGF definition The Day 7-30 window periods offers the highest discriminatory power, and normothermic regional perfusion appears to favourably shift DCD kidney recovery trajectories in a manner the binary definition fails to detect.

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Interpretable Machine Learning to Improve Donor-Recipient Matching at Time of Heart Transplantation

Xu, J.; Dai, W.; Goldberg, J.; Hu, I.; Chen, C.-H.; Shah, P.; DeFilippi, C.; Sun, J.

2026-07-31 transplantation 10.64898/2026.07.29.26359283 medRxiv
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BACKGROUND: Machine learning (ML) models have been used to evaluate one-year post-transplant mortality in donor-recipient pairs. Previous modeling utilizing noninterpretable ML methods (deep neural networks [DNN] and XGBoost) showed modest gains in area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) beyond logistic regression, but suffered a significant drop in predictive AUC applied to the subsequent years' data and lacked statistical significance in validating previously identified risk factors. METHODS: Using balanced SRTR datasets, we evaluated non-interpretable models against interpretable ML models (adaptive logistic regression with interaction terms [aLR], Classification and Regression tree [CART], and conditional inference tree [CIT]) for one-year mortality, including comprehensive clinician-supervised data curation and inclusion of variables describing pre- and post-2018 listing status changes. Models were trained/tested using rolling-window validation across years and further analyzed with repeated ten-fold crossvalidation. Interaction terms were obtained via Adaptive Best-Subset Selection (ABESS). RESULTS: Predictive validation before the listing policy change in 2018 showed similar AUCs between DNN (0.579), aLR (0.642), CART (0.579), and CIT (0.584), with XGBoost having a higher (0.763) AUC. However, in the post-2018 predictive analysis, aLR outperformed XGBoost (AUC 0.613 vs. 0.586). The interpretable ML models confirm the significance of previously reported risk factors (recipient bilirubin and creatinine) and identify risk factors not previously reported (donor pH, potential recipient distance, and recipient transfusion), as well as clinically relevant interaction terms. CONCLUSIONS: Carefully developed interpretable ML models of one-year transplant mortality have similar predictive performance to black-box models, while identifying novel risk factors, and showing improved performance after recent listing policy changes. With appropriate validation and additional data, interpretable ML modeling may allow real-time data-driven donor selection.

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Clinical characteristics and associated factors of de novo and recurrent prostate cancer after kidney transplantation

Apanisile, K.; Li, M.-H.; Faddoul, G.; Ekwenna, O.; Koizumi, N.

2026-08-02 transplantation 10.64898/2026.07.30.26359389 medRxiv
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Kidney transplant recipients experience a higher burden of several malignancies, yet the factors associated with prostate cancer presentation after transplantation remain poorly understood. Unlike malignancies strongly associated with impaired immune surveillance, prostate cancer has not consistently demonstrated an increased incidence after transplantation, suggesting that different mechanisms may underlie disease presentation. This study evaluated recipient, donor, transplant, immunologic, and immunosuppressive factors associated with prostate cancer phenotype after kidney transplantation. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using national transplant registry data from adult kidney transplant recipients diagnosed with post-transplant prostate cancer between 2015 and 2024. Cases were classified as de novo (no pre-transplant history of prostate cancer) or recurrent (documented pre-transplant history). Multivariable Firth penalized logistic regression was used to evaluate factors associated with recurrent phenotype. Prespecified sensitivity analyses included deceased donor restricted models, incorporation of donor organ quality variables, and adjustment for time from transplantation to cancer diagnosis. Exploratory machine learning analyses included elastic net logistic regression, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting. The cohort included 660 recipients, of whom 623 (94.4%) had de novo disease and 37 (5.6%) had recurrent disease. Recipient age was the only variable consistently associated with recurrent phenotype across primary and sensitivity analyses (adjusted odds ratio per year 1.11, 95% CI 1.05-1.17; p<0.001). Immunosuppressive regimen, donor characteristics, immunologic variables, and time from transplantation to cancer diagnosis were not independently associated with phenotype in the primary cohort. In deceased donor restricted analyses, alemtuzumab induction showed an exploratory association with recurrent phenotype, although estimates were imprecise. Machine learning models demonstrated modest discrimination and calibration and did not outperform penalized regression approaches. These findings suggest that, among kidney transplant recipients with prostate cancer, differences between recurrent and de novo presentation are more closely associated with recipient age and underlying disease characteristics than with transplant exposures or specific immunosuppressive regimens.

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United Network for Organ Sharing Policy Change Impact on Competing Risks in Heart Transplantation: Landmark Analysis of Waitlist Outcomes over Time

Wolfson, A. M.; Chen, M. S.; Ferrall, J.; Kermanshahchi, J.; Fong, M.; Nattiv, J.; Stachel, M.; Kawaguchi, E. S.; Vaidya, A.

2026-09-30 transplantation 10.64898/2026.09.29.26362912 medRxiv
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Background Studies of the 2018 United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) policy revision suggest improved early transplantation access for the sickest patients. It remains unknown whether these benefits vary as a function of time on the waitlist. Thus, we evaluated potential time-dependent effects of the 2018 heart allocation policy revision on waitlist outcomes. Methods Using UNOS data, we analyzed adult heart transplant candidates listed five years before (pre-policy) and after (post-policy) policy change, categorized as high-acuity (Status 1-3 or 1A) or low-acuity (Status 4-6 or 1B/old 2). Landmark analysis at weeks 0, 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 24 using a competing risks framework was performed to assess transplantation, death/deterioration, and myocardial recovery. Sub-distribution and cause-specific hazard ratios were calculated. Absolute number and proportion of far-away transplants (donor distance [&ge;]500 nautical miles) were calculated at each timepoint. Results High-acuity patients experienced significantly higher risk of transplantation within 2 weeks post-policy change but equivocal risk by week 16. Low-acuity patients exhibited increased rate/risk of myocardial recovery and equal or improved death/deterioration risk at all timepoints; early transplantation cumulative incidence was increased. At all timepoints, both groups experienced significantly increased far-away donor use, highest immediately after listing and progressively declining over time. Conclusions The 2018 heart allocation policy change resulted in an initial appearance of time-dependent benefits among high-acuity, post-policy patients, but this was likely due to rapid transplantation of Status 1 and 2 patients from broader geographic sharing rather than a true temporal phenomenon. Post-policy, low-acuity patients experience benefits in all waitlist outcomes.

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Continuous Diagnostic Indices from BanffNET Automated Lesion Scores for Kidney Transplant Pathology: Development and Evaluation of a Diagnostic Prediction Model

Vranken, A.; Buzzanca, G.; Vaulet, T.; Wellekens, K.; Koshy, P.; van der Helm, D.; Meziyerh, S.; Venhuizen, J.-H.; Haitjema, S.; van Zuilen, A. D.; Nurmohamed, A. S.; Bemelman, F. J.; Nguyen, T. Q.; LUMC Global Kidney Biopsy Reader Group, ; Florquin, S.; de Vries, A. P. J.; Kers, J.; Verbeke, G.; Naesens, M.

2026-09-13 transplantation 10.64898/2026.09.11.26362821 medRxiv
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Background: Histopathological diagnoses in kidney transplant biopsies, as described by the Banff classification, suffer from substantial inter-observer variability and misinterpretation, making them prone to diagnostic errors. Continuous indices based on BanffNET automated lesion scores are proposed to quantify the continuous phenotypic spectrum of kidney transplant biopsies, complementary to pathologist assessment of biopsies. Methods: The BanffNET model was used to obtain continuous lesion scoring for a training cohort of 2544 biopsies, a large validation cohort of 3863 biopsies, and a multi-reader cohort of 36 biopsies scored by 67 pathologists. A penalized regression approach was used to condense 17 automated lesion scores into four indices, representing the most important dimensions of graft injury: a TCMR/TI Index, an AMR/MVI Index, an Activity Index and a Chronicity Index. The BanffNET Indices were evaluated against Banff diagnoses and histological indices in the training cohort and validation cohort. Since pathologist-assigned Banff lesions and diagnoses suffer from inter-observer variability, associations were also assessed with diagnoses in a multi-reader study, with time to kidney graft failure in the training and validation cohort and with biopsy-based molecular signatures in the validation cohort. Results: The BanffNET TCMR/TI Index, AMR/MVI Index and Activity Index showed excellent discrimination of Banff TCMR, Banff MVI and Banff Any Diagnosis respectively, with validation AUCs ranging from 0.80 to 0.92. In addition, the BanffNET Indices explained large amounts of variability in multi-observer reference standards, time to graft failure and molecular biopsy-based diagnostics. In the large majority of cases, variability explained by BanffNET Indices matched or exceeded the variability explained by pathologist-assigned diagnoses and histological indices. Conclusions: BanffNET Indices are reproducible descriptors of whole slide images that could complement and augment kidney transplant biopsy evaluation by pathologists. Associations of BanffNET Indices with multi-observer diagnoses and related outcomes suggest that they capture additional information on tissue injury type and severity on top of pathologist-assigned Banff diagnoses and histological indices.

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Adverse Graft Remodeling Reflects Dynamic Allograft Stress and Predicts Adverse Outcomes After Heart Transplantation

Patel, K.; Pan, T.; Al-Kindi, S.; Eagar, T. N.; Torre-Amione, G.; Guha, A.; Ranka, R.; Gao, R.; Bhimaraj, A.

2026-08-28 transplantation 10.64898/2026.08.25.26361222 medRxiv
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BACKGROUND: Increased left ventricular mass (LVM) at a single time point after heart transplantation (HT) predicts future adverse outcomes. However, dynamic changes in LVM could have better biological relevance and reflect adverse graft remodeling (AGR). The prognostic significance of such serial changes has not been studied. METHODS: Using an automated, electronic health record-based institutional data infrastructure, we studied 439 HT recipients with 5,563 LVM measurements. Separate Bayesian joint models estimated the simultaneous associations of current LVM and its instantaneous rate of change with graft dysfunction (GD) and mortality. A joint-model-derived remodeling score combining patient-specific deviations in LVM and slope was dichotomized to define AGR and non-AGR groups. A mixed-effects analysis of all clinical variables was performed to assess associations with LVM both between and within patients. An independent cohort of 35 patients with 79 surveillance-biopsy RNA-sequencing samples was used to examine early stress-responsive pathways associated with the remodeling score. RESULTS: LVM declined by approximately 7 g/year after transplantation, with regression attenuating over time. Sixty patients (13.7%) had GD, and 75 (17.1%) died. Higher LVM was associated with subsequent GD (hazard ratio [HR] per 10 g, 1.14; 95% credible interval [CrI], 1.02-1.28) and mortality (HR, 1.10; 95% CrI, 1.02-1.19). A more positive LVM slope was associated with GD (HR per 1 g/year, 1.21; 95% CrI, 1.06-1.42) and with cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV) grade 2 or 3 (HR, 1.39; 95% Crl, 1.02-1.96). LVM regressed more slowly in the AGR group (-5.8 vs -8.4 g/year), with higher GD (21.0% vs 6.4%) and mortality (24.2% vs 10.0%). Time-updated GD was associated with subsequent death (HR, 8.12; 95% Confidence Interval [CI], 4.67-14.14). Transcriptomic analysis showed enrichment of interferon-mediated signaling and vascular endothelial activation with higher remodeling scores, whereas lower scores were associated with mitochondrial and metabolic processes, ribosome biogenesis, and pathways related to tissue repair and stress responses. CONCLUSIONS: AGR is an easily accessible imaging biomarker that reflects the changes in the allograft in response to various stressors and predicts future adverse outcomes. Discovery of molecular mechanisms of AGR could lead to novel therapies to protect the allograft from chronic rejection.

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Sex Differences in the Impact of Allosensitization on Waitlist Access and Post-Transplant Outcomes in Adults with Congenital Heart Disease

Joseph, A.; Kearney, K.; Henricks, C.; Morgan, J. L.; Tan, W.; Shafer, K.; Wrobel, C.; Lacelle, C.; Burns, K.; Jawaid, A.; Tapaskar, N.; Solmonson, A.; Nelson, D. B.; Truby, L. K.

2026-09-02 transplantation 10.64898/2026.08.31.26361832 medRxiv
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Background: Adult congenital heart disease (ACHD) patients are prone to HLA-antibody formation from multiple surgeries, transfusions, and prosthetic surgical material. Females with ACHD may accrue additional, non-surgical alloantigen exposure. Whether sex modifies the impact of allosensitization on heart transplant (HT) access and outcomes in ACHD remains unknown. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the OPTN/UNOS registry of adults with ACHD listed for first-time HT (2018-2025). Sensitization was defined by calculated panel reactive antibodies (cPRA) at listing. We tested the sex x sensitization (highly sensitized, cPRA >50%) interaction on transplant access using Fine-Gray competing-risks regression, treating transplantation as the event of interest and death or removal from the waitlist as competing events, and on post-transplant survival using multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression, both adjusted for age at listing, mechanical support at listing, and the number of distinct prior cardiac surgery categories. Results: Among 856 candidates (38% female), females were more often highly sensitized than males (23% vs 14%; age-adjusted OR 1.81, 95% CI 1.26-2.61), even after adjusting for surgical burden. Sensitization reduced transplant access in females (84% to 71%; median wait 60 to 110 days, p < 0.001) but not males (79% vs 79%, median wait 88 vs 98 days). In adjusted Fine-Gray models, the subdistribution hazard for transplant was reduced in sensitized females (sHR 0.54, 95% CI 0.41-0.72) with no effect in males (sHR 0.96, 95% CI 0.73-1.26), and the sex x sensitization interaction was significant (interaction sHR 0.64, 95% CI 0.44-0.94, p = 0.02). Post-transplant mortality was numerically higher in sensitized than non-sensitized candidates in both sexes and the sex x sensitization interaction on 1-year mortality was not significant. The sex-asymmetric effect persisted and was more pronounced in the multiorgan candidates. Conclusions: Allosensitization is not a sex-neutral barrier to transplant in HT candidates with ACHD. Females are more sensitized and have reduced transplant access without differences in 1-year mortality. The female excess in sensitization is not accounted for by surgical burden, and the exposures responsible remain to be defined. These findings warrant a sex-aware listing strategy and further studies.

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Herpes Simplex Virus Serostatus and 1-Year Mortality Among Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplant Recipients

Fischer, M. D.; Johnston, C.; Boeckh, M. J.; Ford, E. S.; Gooley, T.; Phipps, A. I.; Winer, R. L.; Biernacki, M. A.; McCulloch, D. J.; Sandmaier, B. M.; Greninger, A. L.; Wald, A.; Pergam, S. A.

2026-08-02 transplantation 10.64898/2026.07.30.26359369 medRxiv
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Viral infections remain a cause of substantial morbidity and mortality in allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant (aHCT) recipients. While antiviral prophylaxis has dramatically reduced the risk of herpes simplex virus (HSV) disease, the relationship between HSV serostatus and major post-transplant complications in the context of HSV prophylaxis is unknown. We evaluated the association between HSV serostatus and survival among adults who received a first aHCT at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center between 2002 and 2022. Patients were screened for HSV-1 and HSV-2 by Western blot (WB) prior to transplant. We fit Cox proportional hazards models for mortality up to one year post-transplant, comparing HSV seropositive to seronegative patients. Models were adjusted for age, sex, cytomegalovirus (CMV) serostatus, conditioning regimen, disease risk, graft type and HLA matching, year of transplant and acute graft-versus host disease. A total of 4,016 aHCT recipients were included in this analysis. The cumulative all-cause 1-year mortality was 29.8%. For HSV-1, the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for all-cause mortality comparing seropositive to seronegative individuals was 1.20 (95% CI: 1.06-1.36). The aHRs for relapse, non-relapse mortality (NRM) and relapse-related mortality (RRM) were 1.46 (1.24-1.71), 1.04 (0.89-1.21), and 1.75 (1.40-2.19), respectively. For HSV-2, the aHRs for all-cause mortality, relapse, NRM, and RRM were 1.03 (0.93-1.14), 1.16 (1.03-1.31), 0.99 (0.87-1.13), and 1.13 (0.97-1.33), respectively. Despite universal antiviral prophylaxis, HSV-1 seropositivity was associated with higher mortality in the year after transplant, driven by RRM. Further studies are needed to confirm the association and understand the potential mechanisms underlying this relationship.

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To TTV or Not to TTV? A Combined Urinary Biomarker Approach in Kidney Transplant Recipients Using Torque Teno Virus, Cell-Free DNA, and BK Polyomavirus Measurements

Alhadid, Y.; Mamroth, M.; Wang, Z.; Castaneda, J.; Chadha, A.; Vlassov, A.; Chikova, A.

2026-10-15 transplantation 10.64898/2026.10.13.26365472 medRxiv
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Background: Noninvasive biomarkers capable of detecting kidney allograft injury and distinguishing rejection from infection remain an important clinical need. Torque teno virus (TTV) reflects host immune status, but its utility in urine has not been well established. We evaluated urinary TTV, total cell-free DNA (cfDNA), cfDNA fragmentation, and BK polyomavirus (BKV) as potential biomarkers of kidney transplant rejection and BK polyomavirus-associated nephropathy (BKPyVAN). Methods: Urine samples from 334 kidney transplant recipients were analyzed in association with kidney biopsies performed within 30 days of sample collection. TTV and cfDNA were measured by multiplex quantitative PCR (qPCR), with a subset analyzed by digital PCR (dPCR), and BKV was quantified by qPCR. Associations with biopsy results were evaluated using group comparisons and nominal logistic regression. Changes associated with outcomes of consecutive biopsies were assessed by matched pairs analysis. Results: Among 544 unique urine samples, the urinary TTV/cfDNA ratio was significantly lower in rejection than in non-rejection samples (P<0.0001). Logistic regression adjusted for demographic factors confirmed an inverse association between the qPCR-derived TTV/cfDNA metric and rejection (adjusted odds ratio per delta Cq, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.88-0.94; P<0.00001). Significant differences were observed for all types of rejection. Association was confirmed by dPCR: higher TTV was associated with lower rejection odds, whereas higher cfDNA was associated with greater rejection odds. A nominal logistic model incorporating dPCR measurements achieved an AUROC of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.69-0.82). Matched pairs analysis showed a significant decrease in TTV/cfDNA when rejection developed and an increase following recovery from rejection, with no significant changes when biopsy status remained unchanged. BKV levels were strongly associated with BKPyVAN. No correlation between TTV and BKV was observed. Nominal logistic regression integrating TTV, cfDNA, and BKV measurements yielded AUROCs of 0.75, 0.97, and 0.73 for rejection, BKPyVAN, and non-rejection, respectively. Conclusions: A reduced urinary TTV/cfDNA ratio is associated with biopsy-defined kidney transplant rejection, and changes in the ratio correlate with transitions in biopsy results. Combined TTV, cfDNA, and BKV measurements showed differential associations with rejection and BKPyVAN, supporting further evaluation as complementary urinary biomarkers.

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Functional gut microbiome dysbiosis is associated with overall survival after solid organ transplantation

Zhang, S.; Swarte, C.; TransplantLines investigators, ; Knobbe, T. J.; Damman, K.; Verschuuren, E. A. M.; Gan, T. C.; Harmsen, H. J. M.; De Meijer, V. E.; Blokzijl, H.; Bakker, S. J. L.; Gacesa, R.; Weersma, R. K.; Björk, J. R.

2026-09-09 transplantation 10.64898/2026.09.04.26362223 medRxiv
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Background Long-term survival after solid organ transplantation remains limited by infection, graft dysfunction, and systemic complications. Recent evidence suggests that gut dysbiosis, marked by loss of beneficial commensals and expansion of opportunistic pathogens, is associated with increased mortality in solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs). While specific species have been associated with higher mortality risk or improved survival, the functional mechanisms on the strain level underlying these associations remain unclear. Here, we integrated gene-centric functional profiling with strain-level resolved metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) across 1231 gut metagenomes from 1008 SOTRs (580 kidney, 245 liver, 133 lung and 50 heart transplant recipients) and 233 healthy controls from the TransplantLines Biobank and Cohort Study to link gut microbial functions and metabolic modules to their originating MAGs and assess their association with post-transplant overall survival. Results Functional profiling of the gut microbiome revealed pronounced functional dysbiosis in SOTRs compared with healthy controls, with higher dysbiosis scores significantly associated with increased post-transplant mortality. We identified 97 microbial functions (KEGG Orthologs, KOs) positively associated with impaired survival (hazard ratio >1; FDR < 0.10) and 661 KOs associated with improved survival (hazard ratio <1; FDR < 0.10) after transplantation. KOs associated with excess mortality predominantly encoded functions related to bacterial adhesion, virulence, and stress adaptation. In contrast, protective KOs mapped to 12 highly complete metabolic modules, including shikimate and pyridoxal phosphate biosynthesis. Genome-resolved analysis of 10,397 MAGs revealed that KOs associated with excess mortality were concentrated in members of the Proteobacteria phylum, particularly the Enterobacteriaceae family, whereas protective KOs were enriched in members of the Firmicutes A lineage. Conclusion The functional capacity of the post-transplant gut microbiome differed significantly from that of healthy controls, consistent with a state of post-transplant gut dysbiosis. Notably, functional dysbiosis of the gut microbiome was associated with post-transplant survival. These findings highlight microbial functional potential as a determinant of post-transplant survival and a promising target for microbiome-informed risk prediction and therapeutic intervention.

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Beyond Awareness: Factors Associated with Willingness to Participate in Living Kidney Donation

Madan, S.; Thomas, E. M.

2026-09-23 transplantation 10.64898/2026.09.22.26363701 medRxiv
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BackgroundLiving donor kidney transplantation improves outcomes for eligible patients with kidney failure, yet living donation remains limited. Public awareness about the possibility of living donation may not be sufficient to translate into willingness to donate. This study evaluated knowledge, attitudes, personal exposure, perceived barriers, motivators, and financial considerations associated with willingness to participate in living kidney donation among adults in San Antonio, Texas. MethodsA cross-sectional community-based survey was conducted among 346 adults. The survey assessed demographic characteristics, knowledge about kidney transplantation and living donation, personal exposure to dialysis, transplantation, and living kidney donation, misconceptions regarding donation, motivating and discouraging factors, financial considerations, and willingness to become a living donor. Associations with willingness were evaluated using multivariable logistic regression models. ResultsAlthough 83.8% of participants knew that a healthy person could donate one kidney while living, only 68 participants (19.8%) expressed general willingness to become a living donor. Only 40.0% identified kidney transplantation as the best treatment for eligible patients with kidney failure. Demographic and socioeconomic factors were not independently associated with willingness, and individual misconceptions were not independently associated with willingness. In the integrated model, knowing a living kidney donor was associated with greater willingness (OR 2.82, 95% CI 1.33-5.95), whereas knowing a transplant recipient was associated with lower willingness (OR 0.42, 95% CI 0.19- 0.96). Helping someone in need was associated with greater willingness (OR 2.48, 95% CI 1.39-4.44), while concern about long-term donor health complications was associated with lesser willingness to donate (OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.26-0.90). Nearly half of respondents who answered the compensation question selected a monetary amount that could motivate donation. ConclusionsIn this community-based sample, awareness that living donation is possible did not translate into broad willingness to donate. Willingness appeared to be shaped by personal exposure, altruistic motivation, donor safety concerns and financial considerations. Community education should move beyond basic awareness and address donor safety, financial protection, living donor experiences, and the benefits of kidney transplantation.

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Offline Contextual Bandits for Lung Donor--Recipient Matching: A Retrospective Feasibility Study

Xiang, Y.; Abed, B.; Madondo, M.; McArthur, P.; Vigneshwar, N.; Kamaleswaran, R.; Patel, K. J.

2026-09-23 transplantation 10.64898/2026.09.22.26363700 medRxiv
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AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWO_ST_ABSBackgroundC_ST_ABSLung donor-recipient matching requires balancing recipient medical urgency with expected post-transplant benefit. Conventional prediction models estimate outcomes for historical donor-recipient pairs but do not directly compare alternative candidates for the same donor. We developed an offline contextual-bandit framework to assess the feasibility of learning donor-centered lung-matching policies from historical registry data. MethodsWe used linked United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS)/Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN) Standard Transplant Analysis and Research files to identify 8,529 lung transplant allocation events from 2023 through 2025. Each event included the historical recipient and nine date-matched, ABO-compatible pseudo-candidates. The reward combined 72-hour respiratory-support-free survival (weight, 0.75) with a normalized initial Composite Allocation Score waitlist medical-urgency score (weight, 0.25). We trained a pessimistic neural lower-confidence-bound contextual-bandit policy (NeuraLCB) and evaluated it on held-out donor events using matched-action evaluation and self-normalized inverse propensity scoring (SNIPS). ResultsThe reconstructed dataset contained 85,290 donor-candidate rows. In the held-out set of 1,706 allocation events, the observed clinician reward was 0.534 (95% CI, 0.518-0.549). NeuraLCB agreed with the historical recipient in 174 events (10.2%), with a matched-action reward of 0.616. The SNIPS-estimated value of the NeuraLCB policy was 0.649 (95% CI, 0.568-0.717), corresponding to a paired difference of +0.116 (95% CI, +0.035 to +0.181) relative to observed clinician reward. However, the effective sample size was 51.5 events, indicating limited overlap between the learned and estimated historical policies. ConclusionsThis study demonstrates the feasibility of constructing and evaluating an offline contextual-bandit framework for lung donor-recipient matching using registry data. The estimated policy value was higher than the observed historical reward, but this finding is exploratory because candidate sets were reconstructed and off-policy evaluation had limited overlap. Verified offer sets, time-stamped candidate data, explicit compatibility constraints, and prospective evaluation are required before clinical use.

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Spectral Analysis of the T Cell Repertoire Recovery Following Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation

Toor, A. A.; Marinos-Velarde, A.; Qayyum, R.

2026-09-29 transplantation 10.64898/2026.09.28.26364185 medRxiv
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The human T cell repertoire is generated through recombination of a multitude of T cell receptor gene segments, yielding a complex array of T cell clones. T cell receptor beta (TRB) V gene segment defined, T cell clonal frequency when organized in correspondence with the respective V gene segment positions on the TRB genomic locus yields a periodic, undulating curve in the spatial domain. Using the genomic distance from the TRB-D1 segment to the TRB-V1-29 segments, spectral analysis was performed utilizing Lomb-Scargle periodogram (modified Fourier analysis) to obtain spectral power curves quantifying the TRB V clonal frequencies from 12 allogeneic stem cell transplant donors (baseline) and recipients (<100 days or b/w 100-365) using a variety of analytic software. Patients either underwent HLA matched related bone marrow or HLA matched unrelated blood stem cell transplantation, using PT-CY for the former and ATG for the latter. Spectral Power curves revealed dominant spectral peaks at wavelengths ranging from 113-335 millicycles/kb in the 12 donors, with consistent frequency domain spectral patterns, supporting similar use of V segments across healthy individuals. PT-CY recipients had power spectra closely corresponding to the respective donors, however the ATG recipients had relatively dispersed spectra, with spectral centroid shifted towards higher frequencies compared to donors and a reciprocal decline in the low frequency indices. Spectral power was concentrated in the <3 kb and 3-12 kb wavelengths in both groups, consistent with the periodicity observed in the relative V gene segment usage across the repertoire. The analyses reported here demonstrate that the healthy SCT donors have a spectral signature occupying short to intermediate wavelegnths in the frequency domain, PT CY recipients recover with donor-like spectra on the average, however ATG recipients tend to shift towards higher frequencies. These findings are consistent with a normal organized distribution of TRB V segment usage in healthy individuals, with PT-CY preserving this organization more consistently than ATG. Spectral (Fourier) analysis of TRB sequencing data provides a repertoire wide summary of T cell clonal distribution.

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Rethinking the Benign Nature of Class II Lupus Nephritis

Shwetar, J. J.; Fava, A.; Keegan, S.; Carlucci, P. M.; Dudley, J. N.; Lama, L.; Suryawanshi, H.; Morozov, P.; Mullins, B. J.; Amarnani, A.; Procell, L.; Annuar, D.; Gurajala, S.; Izmirly, P. M.; James, J. A.; Guthridge, J. M.; Eisenhaure, T. M.; Arazi, A.; Putterman, C.; Rao, D. A.; Diamond, B.; Belmont, H. M.; Apruzzese, W.; Davidson, A.; Raychaudhuri, S.; Hacohen, N.; Dall'Era, M.; Loomis, C.; Clancy, R. M.; Tuschl, T.; Wu, M.; Fine, D. M.; Atta, M. G.; Monroy-Trujillo, J.; Furie, R.; Kamen, D. L.; Kalunian, K.; Accelerating Medicine Partnership in RA/SLE, ; Petri, M.; Buyon, J. P.; Rovin,

2026-09-18 genomics 10.64898/2026.09.13.751280 medRxiv
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Introduction: Class II lupus nephritis (LN) is considered clinically benign, yet up to 50% of patients progress to more severe disease and no molecular characterization exists. We aimed to define the single-cell landscape of Class II LN and identify cellular and transcriptional features associated with kidney outcome. Methods: We performed single-cell RNA sequencing on kidney biopsies from fifteen Class II LN patients (eight de novo, seven regressed from prior proliferative or membranous disease) and six healthy controls, integrated with 155 LN and 30 healthy-control samples from the Accelerating Medicines Partnership in SLE spanning proliferative, membranous, and mixed LN. Findings were correlated with 52-week renal response and supported by urinary proteomics. Results: Despite histologically minimal changes, Class II LN exhibited marked immune cell expansion comparable to proliferative and membranous LN, including CCL3+ CCL4+ intermediate monocytes producing TNF, FOLR2+ SIGLEC1+ macrophages producing TGF{beta} and PDGF, and CD69+ CD8+ effector memory T cells producing IFN{gamma}. Fibroblasts and myofibroblasts were significantly expanded and displayed divergent transcriptional programs: pro-fibrotic and inflammatory myofibroblast modules were associated with worse 52-week outcomes, while interferon-responsive and matrix-remodeling fibroblast programs were associated with improvement. Pathogenic and protective fibroblast populations received overlapping immune-derived signals, suggesting that fibroblast transcriptional state, rather than the identity of incoming signals, shapes the stromal response. Baseline chronicity index captured this stromal heterogeneity and was the clinical parameter most associated with outcome. Urinary proteomics aligned Class II with proliferative rather than membranous disease. Conclusions: Class II LN harbors substantial molecular activity not captured by routine histology. Fibroblast transcriptional programs and baseline chronicity index are candidate correlates of kidney outcome that warrant validation in larger, prospectively followed cohorts.

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Novel KIR2DS4:HLA-B*35 interaction predicts HLA-B*35 positive patient survival post hematopoietic stem cell transplant

Gottschalk, S.; Li, Y.; Selukar, S.; Kirk, A.; Naik, S.; Fürst, D.; Mannes, S.; Flossdorf, S.; Beyersmann, J.; Schrezenmeier, H.; Franke, G.-N.; Thomas, P.; Triplett, B.; Chockley, P.

2026-08-06 transplantation 10.64898/2026.08.04.26358595 medRxiv
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Haplo-identical hematopoietic cell transplantation (haploHCT) is an integral treatment paradigm for patients with leukemia. While overall survival (OS) post-haploHCT has steadily improved, relapse-free survival (RFS) remains relatively stagnant. Upon the discovery of killer immunoglobulin-like receptors (KIRs) on natural killer (NK) cells and their cognate human leukocyte antigen (HLA) ligands, algorithms have been developed to enhance graft versus leukemia effects. However, these algorithms fail to yield consistent predictions in patient outcomes. We utilized a combination of in silico protein folding and interactions to determine KIR:HLA reactivity in conjunction with in vitro acoustic force microscopy to measure cell avidity (CA) as a readout for KIR signal strength. CA was determined using monoallelic HLA expressing K562 cell lines, monoallelic KIR Jurkat cells, and peripheral blood NK cells. We extended the CA results and performed standard cytotoxicity assays as well. We discovered that HLA-B*35 interacts with KIR2DS4. We applied the newly discovered interaction to predict outcomes for HCT patients. Stratifying patients based on their HLA-B*35 positivity and donor KIR2DS4 status, we delineated a correlation to survival (P=0.061) when donors only had full-length KIR2DS4. Patients who received a haploHCT and NK cell addback from donors with only full-length KIR2DS4 had a significantly improved RFS (P=0.001) and OS (P=0.016) compared to truncated (KIR1D) and full-length KIR2DS4 donors. This was independently validated in a diverse 10/10 HLA matched European cohort with RFS (P=0.0255) and OS (P=0.0388). Thus, the identified novel KIR2DS4:HLA-B*35 interaction axis predicts patient survival, in both haplo-identical and fully matched, HCT and highlights that our current understanding of the KIR:HLA interactome is incomplete and requires remapping for enhanced therapeutic applications.

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A Refined Lung Transplant Frailty Scale Incorporating Serum Albumin Is Associated With Risk of Mortality in Lung Transplant Candidates

Sriram, A.; Christie, J.; Anderson, M. R.; Benvenuto, L.; Gao, Y.; Arcasoy, S. M.; Calabrese, D.; Hays, S. R.; Kukreja, J.; Venado, A.; Betancourt, L.; Gambetta, P.; Scott, H.; Oyster, M.; Zaleski, D.; Adler, J.; Kalman, L.; Patel, S.; Tevald, M.; Covinsky, K. E.; Huang, C.-Y.; Greenland, J. R.; Katz, P.; Singer, J. P.

2026-10-11 transplantation 10.64898/2026.10.08.26365085 medRxiv
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Background: The Lung Transplant Frailty Scale (LT-FS) is a validated binary measure of frailty in lung transplant candidates. We aimed to refine the LT-FS Base and Body Composition measures by developing a three-category classification to improve clinical risk stratification with serum albumin as a more clinically practical frailty biomarker. Methods: To develop the refined LT-FS, we applied a 4-step measure development method to a multicenter prospective cohort study of lung transplant candidates. Low albumin (<3.5 g/dL) replaced high serum C-reactive protein ([&ge;]10 mg/L) as the LT-FS biomarker. Cutpoints that balanced discrimination, risk prediction, and calibration were identified to define ''frail'', ''pre-frail'', and ''not frail'' categories. Next, we evaluated associations between the refined LT-FS and exercise capacity, patient-reported outcomes, and mortality using multivariate linear and Cox regression. Results: Among 419 participants, the refined LT-FS identified a graded increase in mortality risk across frailty categories. For example, compared with candidates who were not frail, pre-frailty and frailty by the LT-FS Body Composition were associated with a 2.9-fold (HR 2.9, 95% CI 1.2-6.9) and 7-fold (HR 6.9, 95% CI 2.6-18.2) higher risk of waitlist delisting or death, respectively. Pre-frailty and frailty by LT-FS Body Composition were associated with 2-fold (HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.2-3.8) and 3.6-fold (HR 3.6, 95% CI 1.8-7.3) higher risk of mortality after transplant. Relationships with exercise capacity and patient-reported disability were less consistent. Conclusions: A refined Lung Transplant Frailty Scale incorporating serum albumin demonstrates strong associations with waitlist and post-transplant mortality. The addition of a pre-frail category better captures the continuum of frailty and improves clinical risk stratification of lung transplant candidates.

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UM171-Expanded Cord Blood Transplantation in Adults with High- and Very High-Risk Acute Leukemia and Myelodysplastic Syndrome: Combined Results of Two Prospective Phase II Trials

Cohen, S.; Tomellini, E.; Bambace, N.; Ahmad, I.; Bernard, L.; Roy, J.; Gutman, J.; Versluis, J.; Caudrelier, P.; Thauvette, G.; Sauvageau, G.; Milano, F.

2026-08-27 hematology 10.64898/2026.08.21.26360802 medRxiv
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Purpose: Adults with high- or very high-risk acute leukemia (AL) or myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) face substantial relapse risk after allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation. We evaluated single-unit cord blood (CB) transplantation after ex vivo expansion with UM171 in this population. Patients and Methods: Two prospective, single-arm phase II trials at four centers enrolled 64 adults with high- or very high-risk AL or MDS; 60 received a UM171-expanded CB transplant and comprised the analysis population. CB units were preferentially selected at a 5/8 HLA match to maximize the graft versus leukemia effect. Patients received intermediate- or high-intensity conditioning with tacrolimus/mycophenolate mofetil graft-versus-host-disease (GVHD) prophylaxis. Endpoints included safety, feasibility, non-relapse mortality (NRM), relapse-free survival (RFS), overall survival (OS), GVHD, GVHD-free relapse-free survival (GRFS), chronic GVHD-free relapse free survival (CRFS). Results: Thirty-two percent of patients had undergone previous transplantation, 17% of patients with AL were not in remission and 24% of those with AML/MDS had TP53 mutations. Of 62 patients who remained eligible for transplantation, 60 had a graft successfully manufactured and infused. Median times to neutrophil and platelet engraftment were 17 and 38 days, respectively. NRM was 5.1% at day 100 and 15.2% at 1 year. Two-year cumulative incidence of relapse was 22.3%. Two-year OS and RFS were 63.9% and 60.4%, respectively. Grade III-IV acute GVHD incidence was 20.3% at 1 year and moderate-to-severe chronic GVHD incidence was 6.8% at 2 years. Conclusion: UM171-expanded CB transplantation was feasible and provided prompt engraftment, durable disease control, and infrequent clinically significant chronic GVHD in adults with high- and very high-risk AL/MDS. Comparative studies are warranted to define its role relative to contemporary donor platforms.

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Long-Term Efficacy and Allograft Loss after Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor Therapy in Solid Organ Transplant Recipients with Advanced Cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Wu, H.; Murphy, M.; Becot, C.; Fragano, A. M.; Lin, E. H. S.; Surapaneni, S.; Shirvani, D.; Cimoch, C.; Merkin, R.; Cohen, S.; Williams, W. W.; Emerick, K.; Kaufman, H. L.; Shalhout, S. Z.

2026-09-20 dermatology 10.64898/2026.09.17.26363341 medRxiv
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Background: Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) can provide effective treatment for advanced cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (CSCC) in solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs), but long-term oncologic and allograft outcomes remain poorly characterized. Objective: To evaluate long-term efficacy and allograft outcomes after ICI therapy in SOTRs with advanced CSCC. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of SOTRs with advanced CSCC treated with systemic ICI at Mass General Brigham from 2016-2025. Tumor response, survival, immune-related adverse events, immunosuppression modifications, rejection rate, and graft loss were assessed. Kidney graft failure was analyzed using competing-risk methods with death as a competing event. Results: Among 36 SOTRs, objective response rate was 44.4% (95% CI, 27.9%-61.9%), including 9 complete responses. At 3 years, progression-free, disease-specific, and overall survival were 18.6%, 65.8%, and 32.5%, respectively. Median follow-up was 42.1 months. Five patients experienced graft loss, all kidney recipients; 4 had biopsy-confirmed rejection. The 3-year cumulative incidence of kidney graft failure was 16.7% (95% CI, 2.9%-30.5%). Limitations: Retrospective design, modest sample size, and heterogeneous immunosuppression limited risk-factor analyses. Conclusion: ICI provided long-term CSCC control with a low rate of allograft loss, highlighting the need for longitudinal multidisciplinary management balancing oncologic benefit, graft preservation, and competing mortality risk.

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Association between intraoperative alactic base excess and postoperative acute kidney injury after liver transplantation: a retrospective cohort study

Escarraman Martinez, D.; Sanchez Diaz, S.; Pedraza Yanez, K. I.; Escorza Molina, C. A.; Guerrero Alberto, M. A.; Noriega Salas, L.; Solis Perez, G. A.; Antolinez-Motta, J. M.; Flores Rodriguez, A. d. J.

2026-09-07 anesthesia 10.64898/2026.09.02.26362107 medRxiv
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Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication after liver transplantation (LT). Alactic base excess (ABE) reflects the metabolic component of acid base disturbances not attributable to lactate and has been associated with kidney dysfunction in other clinical settings. We evaluated the association between intraoperative ABE and postoperative AKI after LT. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult patients undergoing LT. ABE was calculated from standard base excess and lactate obtained from the last intraoperative arterial blood gas analysis. The primary outcome was creatinine based AKI occurring within the first 7 postoperative days according to Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes criteria. The association between ABE and AKI was estimated using modified Poisson regression with robust variance, adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, MELD score, cold ischemia time, and anhepatic phase duration. A post hoc exploratory analysis evaluated severe AKI, defined as KDIGO stages 2,3. Results: Seventy patients were included, of whom 32 (45.7%) developed AKI. ABE values were lower among patients who developed AKI than among those who did not (median, -1.15 vs 0.75 mmol/L; Hodges Lehmann location shift, -1.60 mmol/L; 95%CI, -2.80 to -0.20). After multivariable adjustment, ABE was not independently associated with AKI (aRR, 0.91; 95%CI, 0.82-1.01; p=0.07). Severe AKI occurred in 14 patients (20.0%), and ABE was not independently associated with severe AKI (aRR, 0.98; 95%CI, 0.78-1.23; p=0.87). Sensitivity analyses yielded consistent findings. Conclusions: A single intraoperative ABE measurement was not independently associated with postoperative AKI or severe AKI after LT. Serial measurements across different phases of transplantation may better characterize the potential relationship between ABE dynamics and postoperative kidney injury.