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Vaccine

Elsevier BV

Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match Vaccine's content profile, based on 189 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.12% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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The Potential Clinical and Economic Impact of a Combination COVID-19 and Influenza Vaccine (mRNA-1083) in Canada

Fust, K.; Kohli, M.; Cartier, S.; Van de Velde, N.; Mehta, D.; Blake, M.

2026-05-20 health economics 10.64898/2026.05.18.26353482 medRxiv
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Aims: COVID-19 and influenza continue to impose a substantial burden on the Canadian healthcare system, particularly among adults aged greater than 65 years. This study compared the clinical and economic outcomes of a Stand-alone vaccination strategy with separate influenza and COVID-19 vaccines versus a Combination strategy incorporating mRNA-1083, an investigational vaccine targeting both infections. Methods: The study adopted the public healthcare payer perspective and adapted a previously published static model to predict COVID-19 and influenza infections across a one-year time horizon. Relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) for mRNA-1083 against COVID-19 compared with the stand-alone vaccine (SPIKEVAX) was based on the pivotal clinical trial of mRNA-1083s COVID-19 component (mRNA-1283). For influenza, no incremental VE was assumed versus the adjuvanted stand-alone vaccine (FLUAD). Infections were modeled independently. Clinical outcomes included symptomatic infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. The economically justifiable price (EJP) was calculated at the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $50,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. mRNA-1083 uptake was assumed to yield absolute increases in COVID-19 and influenza coverage by 10% and 3%, respectively. Results: Compared with the Stand-alone strategy, the Combination strategy was projected to reduce the number of COVID-19-related symptomatic infections, hospitalizations, and deaths (n=71,074; 5,008; 935, respectively), and corresponding influenza outcomes (n=3,985; 362; 69, respectively). The use of mRNA-1083 within the Combination strategy generated a cost-savings of $90,440,471 in vaccine administration fees and an EJP of $304 per dose. Results were sensitive to rVE, coverage, administration fees, mortality and incidence. Limitations: mRNA-1083s rVE is being evaluated in clinical trials and the impact of mRNA-1083 on vaccine coverage and administration fees is uncertain. Conclusions: mRNA-1083 may reduce the burden of COVID-19 and influenza in adults aged greater than 65 years in Canada, while offering good economic value because it has the potential to increase coverage and VE while reducing administration fees.

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Projected health and economic impact of PCV20 vaccination in UK children: a dynamic transmission model

Warren, S.; Said, J.; Trim, J.; Dawson, E.; Wilson, M.; Althouse, B. M.; Rozenbaum, M.

2026-05-17 health economics 10.64898/2026.05.12.26352641 medRxiv
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Background Despite the significant impact of longstanding paediatric pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) use in the United Kingdom (UK), pneumococcal disease burden remains substantial and is primarily driven by nonPCV13 serotypes. Higher valent vaccines such as the 20 valent PCV (PCV20) may provide additional public health and economic benefits, yet their value in the contemporary UK setting has not been fully assessed using recent data. Methods We updated an age structured dynamic transmission model using post COVID 19 UK epidemiology (2001 to 2023) to compare pediatric PCV20 with PCV13 and PCV15. Over a 10 year horizon, we assessed cost effectiveness and number needed to vaccinate (NNV), capturing invasive and non invasive disease cases, deaths, costs, quality adjusted life years, and incremental cost effectiveness ratios. PCV20 was evaluated under 1+1 and 2+1 schedules; PCV13 and PCV15 were assessed under 1+1. Scenario analyses examined key uncertainties. Results PCV20 was estimated to avert more cases and deaths than PCV13 or PCV15, driven by broader serotype coverage and indirect effects. Both PCV20 schedules were dominant or cost saving versus lower valent comparators, with lower NNVs. PCV20s higher vaccination costs were offset by reductions in downstream healthcare expenditures. Conclusion Paediatric PCV20 implementation in the UK could deliver substantial health gains while improving economic efficiency, supporting timely adoption.

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Estimating the impact of Shigella vaccines on growth outcomes and implications for clinical trial design

Codi, A. M.; Rogawski McQuade, E.; Benkeser, D.

2026-04-04 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.03.26350105 medRxiv
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Background: The value proposition for Shigella vaccines is strengthened by the potential for vaccines to prevent linear growth faltering. However, because expected effect sizes in Phase 3 vaccine trials are small due to limited Shigella incidence, a simple comparison of growth by randomized vaccine arm is likely underpowered and may yield null or even inverse results. Methods: We consider a new approach that estimates vaccine effects in the subgroup that would be infected in absence of vaccination, termed the naturally infected. In simulations parameterized by multi-site studies of diarrhea, we compare power for detecting linear growth effects in the naturally infected versus the full study. We further quantified how power is impacted by trial design choices including immunization schedule, study site, and timing of growth measurements. Findings: Simple comparisons of height-for-age z-score (HAZ) by randomized vaccine arm have extremely limited power (<15%) at realistic trial sizes (n=2,500 to 20,000) and carry risk of showing an inverse effect due to random chance. In contrast, naturally infected effects were five to ten times larger and power was up to three times higher. Using a twelve month immunization schedule with a single growth endpoint in high-incidence settings maximized power to detect an effect. Interpretations: While realistically sized clinical trials may be underpowered to detect an effect of vaccination on growth, estimation using the naturally infected subpopulation and careful trial design improve chances of detecting an effect while mitigating risks of null or inverse results.

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Evaluating the Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine Schedules Across Diverse Settings: A Multi-Model Comparison

Wenger, C. G. C.; Grantz, K. H.; Menkir, T. F.; Muellenmeister, A. M.; Pithawala, Z.; Hutubessy, R.; Mogasale, V.; Kraay, A. N. M.; Scott, N.; Abeysuriya, R. G.; Andrews, J. R.; Gauld, J.; Lo, N. C.; Pitzer, V. E.

2026-03-14 public and global health 10.64898/2026.03.09.26346651 medRxiv
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BackgroundGiven emerging evidence on the waning of immunity from typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCV), the World Health Organization (WHO) commissioned a multi-model comparison to determine the optimal schedule in terms of health and economic impact to inform updated recommendations for TCV use across different settings. Methods and findingsTo identify optimal vaccination strategies across different incidence settings and vaccine waning assumptions, we compared two agent-based and two compartmental dynamic models of typhoid transmission. All models were fitted to harmonized age-specific incidence data from medium, high, and very high incidence settings. We assessed different TCV schedules under slow- and fast-waning scenarios to evaluate the best age for routine vaccination and the potential need for booster doses and catch-up campaigns. We evaluated the public health and economic impact predicted for each model and scenario using the net-monetary-benefit framework to determine cost-effectiveness under two representative scenarios for the health outcomes and costs of vaccination and treatment. Over a 10-year time horizon, routine vaccination at 9 months with a catch-up campaign to 15 years and a booster dose at 5 years was predicted to have the greatest impact, reducing cases by a median of 48-64% across the incidence settings. Across all four models, TCV introduction with a catch-up campaign was cost-effective at willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds >$1,250 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted in medium incidence settings when costs and case-fatality risk (CFR) are high and in high incidence settings when costs and CFR are low. The optimal strategy was to delay vaccination to 2 or 5 years of age if waning is fast, depending on the age of peak incidence. In very high incidence settings, TCV introduction at 9 months or 2 years of age was cost-saving, and adding a booster dose at 5 years was cost-effective at most WTP values across all scenarios. ConclusionsModel predictions for the impact and cost-effectiveness of different TCV schedules were fairly robust to uncertainty in parameter values and model structure, but the optimal strategy depends on the typhoid incidence rate, CFR, and waning rate of vaccine protection.

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Minor Consent state policies and COVID-19 vaccination in adolescents

Litchy, C.; Semprini, J.

2026-04-11 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.10.26350608 medRxiv
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BackgroundEver since the COVID-19 vaccine became available, vaccinations in adolescents lagged behind adults. Whether adolescent vaccination rates were higher in states with "Minor Consent" policies remains unknown. MethodsWe accessed adolescent (aged 12-17) county-level vaccine administration data from the CDC (12/2020-05/2023) Our outcomes were COVID-19 vaccination counts for 1) initial dose, 2) completed series doses, 3) booster doses. Panel Poisson regression models with state and time random effects, seasonal fixed-effects, log-population offsets, and adult vaccination rates were estimated to calculate incidence rate ratios (IRR), testing the association between residing in a state with a Minor Consent policy and COVID-19 vaccine uptake. ResultsOverall, for the initial dose and complete series, there was no difference in adolescent COVID-19 vaccination between states with or without Minor Consent policies. However, we found that Minor Consent policies were associated with lower COVID-19 booster doses (IRR = 0.582; 95% CI: 0.409, 0.828; p=0.0026). This association was not found in urban (IRR = 0.867; CI = 0.722, 1.043; p = 0.1295), but only in rural counties (IRR 0.541; CI 0.401, 0.730; p<0.0001). ConclusionsMinor Consent policies were not associated with higher adolescent COVID-19 vaccination. Rather, we found that Minor Consent policies were associated with lower adolescent vaccination for booster doses in rural counties. Despite minimal evidence of impact, states continue to implement Minor Consent vaccination policies. Future research on the topic should investigate, not just other vaccines, but how Minor Consent policies impact parental trust in public health more broadly.

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Cost-Effective Threshold Price for Alternative Infant and Neonatal Rotavirus Vaccines: A Dual-Country Evaluation

Li, X.; Asare, E. O.; Kwon, J.; Wenger, C. G.; Armah, G. E.; Cunliffe, N. A.; Jere, K. C.; Bilcke, J.; Beutels, P.; Pitzer, V. E.

2026-05-15 health economics 10.64898/2026.05.12.26353029 medRxiv
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Suboptimal rotavirus vaccine effectiveness in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) highlights the need for next-generation vaccines, such as the neonatal RV3-BB vaccine. However, there is uncertainty in the duration of protection and future price of vaccines in development. We aim to identify the conditions under which switching to RV3-BB is optimal in Malawi and Ghana, where the current immunization programs use 2-dose Rotarix and 3-dose Rotavac schedules, respectively. A full incremental cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using a validated transmission model calibrated to country-specific rotavirus data. Over 2025-2034, introducing RV3-BB resulted in the largest rotavirus-related burden reduction compared with the current country-specific programs. At moderate willingness-to-pay (~0.5 time Gross Domestic Product per capita), RV3-BB was preferred over Rotavac if price per dose was <$1.2 in Malawi and <$2.5 in Ghana, and/or if the average duration of protection exceeded 40 weeks in Malawi. The RV3-BB vaccine is likely to be cost-effective in Malawi and Ghana, as well as other LMICs, based on expected pricing and duration of protection.

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Quantifying and identifying strategies to improve rotavirus vaccine impact in low- and middle-income countries

Asare, E. O.; Kwon, J.; Li, X.; Al-Mamun, M. A.; Lartey, B. L.; Jere, K. C.; Cunliffe, N. A.; Armah, G. E.; Lopman, B.; Pitzer, V. E.

2026-05-15 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.05.12.26353059 medRxiv
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Background Robust quantitative evidence on the impact of rotavirus vaccines, their potential benefits in countries without vaccination, and strategies to improve performance in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is essential for informing policy decisions aimed at sustaining and expanding vaccination programs. Methods and Findings We used an age-structured compartmental model of rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) transmission that accounts for the natural history of infection to estimate vaccine impact across 112 LMICs. The model incorporates country-specific data on demographics, transmission dynamics, vaccination schedules, coverage levels, and vaccine performance. We simulated multiple scenarios, including the continuation of current vaccination programs, vaccine introduction in countries without programs, the addition of a third dose, scale-up of coverage to 95% in low-coverage settings, and suspension of vaccination. We quantified health impacts by estimating cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted from 2006 to 2024 and projected over 2025 to 2034 using either no vaccination or the current program as counterfactual. We estimated that rotavirus vaccination averted a median of 268 million RVGE cases (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 228-306 million), 35 million moderate-to-severe cases (95% UI: 30-38 million), 817 thousand deaths (95% UI: 684-928 thousand), and 53 million DALYs (95% UI: 45-61 million) between 2006 and 2024, resulting from 81 countries with vaccination programs out of 112 LMICs. Using the current vaccination as a baseline, we estimated substantial additional benefits for all strategies, except for suspension, which would increase the RVGE burden over the next 10 years. Scaling up coverage to at least 95% across all 112 LMICs, with countries without the vaccine using the 6/10/14-week schedule, could avert a median of 296 million RVGE cases (95% UI: 243-358 million), 832 thousand deaths (95% UI: 694-932 thousand), and 55 million DALYs (95% UI: 45-61 million), respectively. Furthermore, adding a third dose in the 51 countries currently using a two-dose schedule could enhance vaccine impact, averting a median of 123 million RVGE cases (95% UI: 102-145 million), 377 thousand deaths (95% UI: 310-440 thousand), and 24 million DALYs (95% UI: 20-28 million), respectively, compared to the two-dose schedule. Conclusions Our model demonstrates that rotavirus vaccination provides substantial health benefits, with an even greater impact achievable through broader adoption and increased coverage. Adding a third dose to the standard two-dose Rotarix schedule could be an additional strategy to improve vaccine impact in LMICs. These findings support continued efforts to sustain and expand vaccination programs across LMICs. The country-specific, model-estimated rotavirus burden can also inform economic evaluations to guide more effective vaccination strategies.

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Strengthening Post-Market Vaccine Safety Surveillance Globally: An Interpretive Description Study from Kenya, South Africa, and Canada

Naz AliSher, A.; Shaik, S.; Myburgh, N.; Ndaba, N.; Hinga, A.; Okore, W.; Sang, S.; Siraj, S.; Qwabi, T.; Gutu, K.; Matano, A.; Di Castri, A.; Kochhar, S.; Kagucia, E. W.; Dangor, Z.; Cutland, C. L.; Top, K. A.-M.

2026-03-16 public and global health 10.64898/2026.03.11.26347757 medRxiv
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BackgroundPost-market vaccine safety surveillance and research are essential to detect and evaluate rare adverse events following immunization (AEFIs) not identified in pre-licensure clinical trials, such as myocarditis post-COVID-19 vaccination. AEFI surveillance infrastructure varies between jurisdictions. Factors that enable or hinder AEFI investigation across diverse settings are not well understood. ObjectiveTo examine clinical, social, and structural/system factors that enable AEFI case identification, reporting, data and biosample collection in high-income countries (HICs) and low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). MethodsWe conducted a qualitative study informed by Interpretive Description in Kenya, South Africa, and Canada. Participants were recruited using purposive and snowball sampling from three groups: (1) key informants with leadership roles in AEFI surveillance and research, (2) healthcare workers, research and laboratory staff involved in AEFI investigation and research, and (3) past participants in vaccine studies. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions. Thematic analysis was conducted. ResultsEighteen key informants, 47 healthcare workers and research staff, and 27 past research participants were enrolled. Facilitators and barriers were identified across two domains: AEFI surveillance and investigation, and vaccine safety research participation. AEFI surveillance and investigation were shaped by trust in system responsiveness, beliefs and awareness around AEFI reporting, digital innovation, and implementation gaps. Research participation was shaped by altruism and social influence, logistics and research infrastructure, and institutional policies and privacy. Facilitators to AEFI surveillance and research included established policies and procedures for AEFI surveillance, digital tools, emphatic communication, and convenient research processes. Barriers included limitations in workforce capacity, diagnostic testing and funding (especially in LMICs), and cumbersome research approval processes. ConclusionsFindings underscore the need for both globally harmonized standards and locally tailored strategies to support vaccine safety surveillance and research in LMICs and HICs that are patient/participant-centered and include sustainable investments in infrastructure and workforce capacity.

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Methods of adjustment for public health and social measures in post-licensure vaccine studies in children in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review

Ndeketa, L.; Vaselli, N. M.; Pitzer, V. E.; Dodd, P. J.; Hungerford, D.; French, N.

2026-04-02 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.04.01.26349767 medRxiv
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Background Post-licensure vaccine effectiveness and impact studies provide evidence on how vaccines perform under routine programme conditions in the real world. In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), vaccine introductions frequently coincide with concurrent public health and social measures that may influence disease risk and transmission. Failure to account for these concurrent interventions may affect the interpretation of vaccine effects. Methods We conducted a systematic review of post-licensure vaccine effectiveness and impact studies conducted in children under five years of age in SSA. Electronic databases were searched for peer-reviewed studies published between January 2000 and December 2019. Eligible studies used observational designs to estimate vaccine effectiveness or population-level impact. Two reviewers independently screened studies, extracted data, and assessed methodological quality using Joanna Briggs Institute tools. We examined study designs, vaccines evaluated, outcomes assessed, and whether public health and social measures (PHSMs) were measured or adjusted for. A narrative synthesis was undertaken. In addition, we conducted a meta-analysis for rotavirus and pneumococcal conjugate vaccines where we explored the heterogeneity in individual-level effectiveness estimates where designs and outcomes were comparable. Results Sixty-four studies met the inclusion criteria, covering eight vaccine-preventable diseases. Rotavirus vaccines were most frequently evaluated, followed by pneumococcal conjugate vaccines. Case-control and ecological designs were most common, while cohort and time-series analyses were less frequently used. None of the included studies collected, reported, or adjusted for PHSMs such as nutrition, WASH, or access to healthcare. The implications of this omission varied by pathogen. Rotavirus vaccine effectiveness estimates from comparable individual-level designs were consistent across settings, with no evidence of between-study heterogeneity. Pneumococcal vaccine effectiveness estimates showed substantial heterogeneity, which appeared to reflect differences in outcome definitions, host risk profiles, and study context. Estimates for other vaccines were generally protective in direction, although the magnitude and precision varied across studies. Conclusions Post-licensure vaccine effectiveness and impact studies in SSA rarely account for concurrent PHSMs. The consequences of this omission are not uniform across vaccines. For some pathogens, effectiveness estimates appear robust to unmeasured contextual change, while for others they are highly sensitive to outcome choice and setting. Future evaluations should prioritise systematic measurement of key PHSMs and consider study designs that better account for time-varying context. Strengthening routine data systems to capture these factors is essential for generating interpretable evidence to inform immunisation policy.

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Validation of methods for forecasting the frequency of non-vaccine serotypes after introduction or switch of a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine

Thindwa, D.; Weinberger, D. M.

2026-04-18 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.16.26351051 medRxiv
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BackgroundTo anticipate the impact of new pneumococcal vaccines and guide future updates, accurate forecasts of changes in non-vaccine serotypes (NVTs) are needed. We developed and evaluated three models that incorporated different assumptions about the way in which NVTs will increase and generated ensemble predictions for the frequency of NVTs in different post-pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) periods. MethodsWe analyzed age- and serotype-specific invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) cases from the United States CDCs Active Bacterial Core surveillance during the pre-PCV (1998-1999), early post-PCV7 (2000-2004), late post-PCV7/pre-PCV13 (2005-2009), early post-PCV13 (2010-2014), and late post-PCV13 (2015-2019) periods. These data were augmented with IPD cases from several countries and combined with serotype-specific invasiveness to infer serotype-specific carriage prevalence. Three models ("Ranking", "Proportionate", "NFDS-lite") generated independent predictions of post-PCV IPD frequencies, which were integrated using an accuracy-weighted ensemble. Model performance was evaluated using the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE). ResultsA total of 23,959 non-PCV7 and 15,580 non-PCV13 cases were analyzed. NVT cases increased from the pre-PCV7 to the late post-PCV7 and post-PCV13 periods. The accuracy of predictions across age groups and models was consistent and high during the post-PCV13 periods but varied during the post-PCV7 periods. The Proportionate model (NRMSE=0.70-3.95) outperformed the NFDS-lite (NRMSE=0.93-8.91) and Ranking (NRMSE=1.51-5.37) models during the early-post-PCV7 period, whereas the NFDS-lite model (NRMSE=1.55-9.82) was superior to the Proportionate (NRMSE=1.45-10.22) and Ranking (NRMSE=1.86-11.35) models during the late post-PCV7 period. The Ensemble model improved on these individual models. ConclusionsThe Ensemble model offers a tool for forecasting serotype patterns to inform pneumococcal vaccines impact and future pneumococcal vaccine formulation.

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Standardized country-level delivery unit cost estimates for routine childhood, routine adolescent, and campaign vaccination: an updated modeling analysis

Portnoy, A.; Clarke-Deelder, E.; Holroyd, T. A.; Hogan, D. R.; Mengistu, T.; Menzies, N. A.

2026-03-17 public and global health 10.64898/2026.03.15.26348434 medRxiv
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BackgroundReliable estimates of immunization delivery costs are essential for planning, budgeting, and economic evaluation of vaccination programs. Although a number of empirical costing studies have been conducted in recent years, many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) continue to lack up-to-date, accurate delivery unit cost estimates--particularly for adolescent and campaign vaccination strategies. Building on prior work, this study aimed to produce updated, standardized country-level estimates of immunization delivery unit costs for different vaccination modalities across all LMICs. MethodsUsing data on study-level unit cost estimates reported by empirical costing studies in the 2024 update of the Immunization Delivery Cost Catalogue, we fitted Bayesian meta-regression models predicting per-dose delivery costs for routine childhood vaccination, routine adolescent vaccination (using human papillomavirus vaccination as a proxy), and vaccination delivered via mass campaigns. Regression models incorporated country-level covariates (per-capita gross domestic product, population size, third-dose diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccination coverage, urbanization, population density, and under-five mortality) and study-level characteristics (cost category, financial versus economic costing perspective, and full versus incremental costing methodology). Fitted models were used to generate country-specific and population-weighted average economic and financial cost per dose estimates for 2024, in 2024 US dollars. ResultsThe analysis included 142 observations for routine childhood vaccination, 63 observations for routine adolescent vaccination, and 113 observations for campaign vaccination. For 2024, the population-weighted mean economic cost per dose across all LMICs was estimated at $5.86 (95% uncertainty interval: $2.74-13.43) for routine childhood vaccination, $17.65 ($7.76-44.30) for routine adolescent vaccination, and $3.13 ($2.03-4.78) for campaign vaccination. Corresponding financial costs per dose were $3.02 ($1.52-6.29), $10.08 ($4.15-25.01), and $1.79 ($1.11-2.91), respectively. Substantial heterogeneity in delivery costs was observed across countries, delivery modalities, and cost perspectives. The estimated associations between predictors and unit costs may be influenced by unobserved study characteristics, and therefore should be interpreted as correlational rather than causal. ConclusionsBy leveraging an expanded empirical evidence base and a Bayesian meta-regression framework, this study provides updated per-dose delivery costs for routine childhood vaccination and estimates new per-dose delivery costs for routine adolescent vaccination and campaign vaccination. As policy decisions often must be made despite incomplete information, these estimates provide a practical source of evidence to support analyses when direct cost data are unavailable.

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Cost-effectiveness analysis of influenza vaccination with a high-dose vaccine versus an adjuvanted quadrivalent vaccine in older adults in Spain

Abellan, J. M.; Redondo, E.; Gil de Miguel, A.; Sanz Munoz, I.; Diaz-Aguilo, A.; Palomo, P.; Farre, M.; Callejo, D.; Pinel, M.; Lopez-Belmonte, J. L.

2026-03-25 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.03.23.26349057 medRxiv
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Objectives: Influenza is a widespread acute respiratory illness posing a major public health challenge for both the National Health Service (NHS) and society, particularly among older adults. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of high-dose quadrivalent vaccine (HD-QIV) versus adjuvanted quadrivalent vaccine (aQIV) in older adults in Spain. Methods: Public health and economic benefits were evaluated using a decision-tree model considering influenza cases, GP and ED visits, hospitalizations, and influenza-related mortality. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses addressed epidemiological and economic uncertainties. Results: From a societal perspective, HD-QIV prevented 54,039 influenza cases, 7,733 GP consultations, 1,585 ED visits, 27,398 episodes of hospitalization due to cardiorespiratory events over a single influenza season and 1,203 deaths compared to aQIV when vaccinating adults [&ge;]65 years old in Spain, resulting in 14,316 LYs and 12,440 QALYs gained over a lifetime horizon. The reduction in health outcomes outweighed the increase in vaccination costs, translating to a reduction in total costs with HD-QIV compared to aQIV. Therefore, vaccinating older adults in Spain with HD-QIV instead of aQIV was a dominant strategy when evaluating hospitalizations due to respiratory and cardiovascular events. HD-QIV remained dominant from a NHS perspective. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the model. Conclusions: This analysis showed that vaccinating older adults in Spain with HD-QIV instead of aQIV would reduce influenza cases, GP and ED visits, hospitalizations, deaths, and associated costs, and thus it should be the strategy of choice in a situation of budgetary constraints from either a societal or an NHS perspective.

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Reconstruction of immunisation during conflict: A mixed-methods cohort evaluation of programme delivery and outcomes in Myanmar

Fishbein, D. B.; Thura-Aung, H.; Ong, R.; Nyein, A.; Kyaw, Z. L.; Karenni, E.; Jie, J.; Maw, K.; Khant, K.; Poe, A.; Win, M.; Grissom, B.; TinOo, C.

2026-05-17 public and global health 10.64898/2026.05.15.26352743 medRxiv
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Introduction. Routine childhood immunisation is frequently disrupted in conflict-affected settings, leaving many children unvaccinated (zero-dose [ZD]). Their vaccination is now a global priority, but published evidence on restoring immunisation services in these settings is limited. We evaluated a nurse-led, community-based Expanded Programme on Immunisation adapted to a conflict-affected setting in Myanmar, focusing on factors associated with full immunisation (FI) among ZD children. Methods. This mixed-methods observational cohort study enrolled children from November 2023 to December 2025; analyses of FI outcomes were restricted to children enrolled >=18 months, with primary analyses focused on ZD children. Associations between programme delivery factors including vaccination opportunity (the ratio of vaccination sessions available to visits required for FI based on age and vaccination schedule [accelerated versus routine]) and FI were assessed using mixed-effects logistic regression with a random intercept for site. Programme cost and qualitative data from document review and questionnaires were also analysed. Results. Of 13,263 children enrolled, 6563 (49%) were in the analytic cohort; 2,684 (20%) were ZD. Among ZD, 452 (17%) were FI at 12 months and 1329 (50%) at 18 months. Accelerated schedule (OR 3.00, 95% CI 1.11-8.13) and greater vaccination opportunity (OR 2.1 per 0.5 unit increase in opportunity, 95% CI 1.8-2.4) were strongly associated with FI at 12 months, with smaller effects at 18 months. The cost per fully immunised ZD child was US$147, primarily reflecting substantial vaccine costs. Qualitative findings indicate that community engagement increased demand and access, but insecurity and logistical challenges limited service continuity and vaccination opportunities. Conclusion. FI improved over time but remained suboptimal through 18 months. Vaccination opportunity and schedule influenced the timing of FI, but sustained follow-up was critical for completion. Community-based delivery enabled restoration of immunisation services where formal systems had collapsed, demonstrating what is possible and what it demands in active conflict.

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Route of Adenovirus Type 5-Vectored Influenza Vaccination Shapes Systemic and Mucosal Immunity in a Maternal-Neonatal Pig Model

Langel, S. N.; Byrne, J. J.; Leal, D.; Williams, A.; Sirisereewan, C.; Meritet, D.; Rahe, M. C.; Watanabe, T. T. N.; Compton, S.; Rajao, D.; Ferreira, J. B.; Tucker, S.; Crisci, E.

2026-03-13 immunology 10.64898/2026.03.12.711389 medRxiv
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Influenza A virus can cause severe complications in pregnant women and infants, yet no influenza vaccines are approved for infants younger than six months. To address this, novel maternal vaccination strategies are needed to increase global access and coverage in these vulnerable populations. This study evaluated a hemagglutinin (HA) A/California/2009 (H1N1)-based human adenovirus 5 (huAd5) vector vaccine, adjuvanted with a TLR3 agonist, for its ability to induce influenza-specific passive immunity from pregnant and lactating pigs to their piglets following different immunization routes. Influenza naive pregnant dams were vaccinated via oral, intranasal (IN), or intramuscular (IM) routes three weeks prepartum and boosted four weeks later. Serum, colostrum and milk samples were collected longitudinally to assess HA-specific antibody induced by vaccination. H1N1-Ca/09 neutralizing antibodies were evaluated in serum and IFN{gamma} producing cells were assessed in blood, spleen and lymph node cells. IN and IM routes elicited robust serum HA-specific antibody responses when compared to control animals at one- and four-weeks post-boost, whereas the oral route resulted in poor antibody induction across all samples tested. Piglets nursing from IN and IM vaccinated dams showed a significantly higher level of HA-specific antibodies in serum at 2-3 weeks post-partum compared to control piglets. Notably, IN immunized dams and their piglets showed significantly elevated influenza neutralizing antibodies compared to controls. This work demonstrated that both IN and IM immunization with a huAd5-vectored vaccine robustly induced maternal influenza-specific immunity that supported passive transfer to nursing piglets, with IN immunization resulting in superior transfer of neutralizing antibodies.

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A surrogate marker of protection confirms the efficacy of an AddaS03-adjuvanted West Nile virus subunit vaccine

Inoue, A.; Saito, S.; Maeda, K.; Itakura, Y.; Kobayashi, S.; Sasaki, M.; Gonzalez, G.; Hall, W. W.; Maenaka, K.; Orba, Y.; Sawa, H.; Tabata, K.

2026-04-21 microbiology 10.64898/2026.04.20.719748 medRxiv
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West Nile virus (WNV) is the causative agent of fatal West Nile encephalitis. To date, no human vaccine against WNV has been approved. Adjuvants are important for developing effective and affordable vaccines that enhance the immunogenicity and decrease the required antigen doses. In this study, we assessed the efficacy of AddaS03, a synthetic adjuvant analogous to AS03, in a WNV subunit vaccine composed of soluble recombinant envelope protein (sEnv). Using a passive immunization mouse model, we defined the neutralizing antibody titer threshold required for protection against lethal WNV infections and applied this threshold as a surrogate marker to evaluate adjuvant efficacy. AddaS03-adjuvanted formulations elicited markedly higher neutralizing antibody titers compared to Alhydrogel adjuvant 2% (Alhydrogel), even at suboptimal antigen doses, and consistently exceeded the defined protective threshold titer. Moreover, in a sequential challenge mouse model, AddaS03-adjuvanted vaccines completely protected mice from symptomatic WNV infections, whereas Alhydrogel-adjuvanted vaccines failed to confer full protection. Collectively, these findings demonstrate that AddaS03 is a promising adjuvant for WNV subunit vaccine development and highlights the utility of a passive immunization model for defining protective antibody thresholds as a surrogate marker for vaccine evaluation.

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COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness in children under 5 in the USA: a test-negative case-control study

Silverman, R. A.; Ahrens, M. L.; Helmick, M.; Finkielstein, C. V.; Cohen, A.; Short, E.; Bordwine, P.

2026-05-30 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.05.28.26354328 medRxiv
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Background and Objectives: SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) continues to mutate, circulate, and adversely impact health and quality of life. While COVID-19 vaccines remain safe and effective, uptake remains low, especially among children, the youngest of whom were not vaccine-eligible until after Omicron and are underrepresented in published research. This study estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) among under-5-year-olds. Methods: We used Virginia Department of Health surveillance data from June 2022 through October 2022 to conduct a test negative case-control study. We estimated VE derived from odds ratios (ORs) of reported infections using logistic regression among children aged 6-months to 5-years. Results: Using the earliest positive (cases) or negative (controls) post-vaccine-eligible test results, the VE associated with two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine was 78% (95% CI=45%, 93%; p=0.004) in unadjusted analyses and 70% (95% CI=25%, 91%, p=0.023) when adjusting for age, sex, prior testing behavior, and prior reported infections. The adjusted VE was 74% (95% CI=28%, 94%; p=0.025) among those with no prior positives reported and 45% (95% CI=-302%, 97%; p=0.569) among those with a prior positive reported. Conclusions: These results show that even though the vaccine was not closely matched to the dominant variants circulating during the time period analyzed, it was effective at reducing the risk of reported infections. This study adds to the body of knowledge on pediatric COVID-19 VE in an underrepresented age-group and in a rural region, illustrates the utility of surveillance data for evaluation, and can inform vaccine decisions to improve vaccine uptake for young children.

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Sex differences in vaccine-induced neuraminidase cross-recognition and protection against H5N1 in mice

Chaulagain, S.; Werner, A. P.; Parish, M. A.; Talukdar, S. N.; Seibert, B. A.; Zhang, T.; Liu, J. A.; Schneider, C. G.; Coughlan, L.; Pekosz, A.; Klein, S. L.

2026-05-29 immunology 10.64898/2026.05.26.728011 medRxiv
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Despite concerns about the spread and pandemic potential of H5N1, there is no commercial H5N1 vaccine. Seasonal influenza vaccines offer some cross-protection against H5N1, but to date there has been no consideration of whether protection differs between the sexes. We investigated immune responses and protection in adult male and female C57BL/6 mice following vaccination with either inactivated H1N1 or H5N1 (LAIV backbone) virus vaccines. Vaccination induced strong homologous antibody responses, with females generating greater total IgG than males against both H1N1 and H5N1 vaccine, which was primarily mediated by greater IgG responses to neuraminidase (NA) than hemagglutinin (HA) protein. IgG cross-recognition of H1N1 also was greater among H5N1 vaccinated females and was primarily caused by greater IgG responses to N1. IgG2b and IgG2c were the primary isotypes generated in response to these vaccines, with females having greater IgG2b responses and greater binding to Fc{gamma}RIV for avian and human NA than males in response to both homologous and heterologous vaccination. Antibody-dependent complement deposition was measured as an FcR-mediated non-neutralizing response against HA and NA and was robust in both sexes. Vaccinated females had greater neutralizing antibody titers than males against the homologous vaccine virus, with limited cross-neutralizing antibodies detected in either sexes. Neuraminidase inhibition titers were greater in vaccinated females than males against the heterologous virus following H1N1 vaccination and against both the vaccine and heterologous viruses following H5N1 vaccination. When H1N1 and H5N1 vaccinated mice were challenged with a lethal dose of A/Texas/37/2024 H5N1, all H5N1 vaccinated mice were protected, regardless of sex. Among H1N1 vaccinated mice, while both sexes were protected against disease, H1N1 vaccinated females cleared virus faster than their male counterparts. These findings highlight that female-biased NA-specific antibodies result in greater cross-protection and should be considered in studies of influenza vaccines. HighlightsO_LIFemales mount stronger IgG responses than males to both H1N1 and H5N1 vaccines C_LIO_LISex differences in vaccine responses are driven by immunity to neuraminidase (NA) C_LIO_LINA inhibition titers are greater in females, supporting broader cross-protection C_LIO_LIH5N1 vaccination confers full protection in both sexes against lethal H5N1 challenge C_LIO_LIH1N1-vaccinated females clear H5N1virus faster than males after lethal challenge C_LI

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Maternal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine perceptions amongst pregnant women and mothers of infants and toddlers in England: a qualitative study

Bell, S. L.; Chantler, T.; Passanante, A.; Pryce, J.; Bisset, K.; Letley, L.; Campbell, H.; Paterson, P.

2026-03-30 public and global health 10.64898/2026.03.27.26349494 medRxiv
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Aim: To explore RSV knowledge and awareness, RSV vaccination perceptions and acceptability, and preferences for maternal vaccine delivery and communication amongst pregnant women and mothers of infants and toddlers in England. Methods: Between July and November 2024, semi-structured qualitative interviews were performed with 30 mothers (youngest child under 2 years), two of whom were pregnant with a subsequent child. The study was conducted as a follow-on to a UK Health Security Agency survey of attitudes towards RSV vaccination amongst pregnant and post-partum women in England. Findings: Although most mothers had heard of RSV, mothers with experience in health roles were more likely to understand the potential severity of RSV in infants. Likelihood of maternal RSV acceptance was reported as high, with most mothers considering RSV vaccination as beneficial in protecting infants. Most mothers preferred a hybrid approach to vaccine communication, with information available online (e.g. through the NHS website), via written sources (e.g. NHS produced leaflet), and through talking with midwives. For convenience, most mothers preferred the option of fitting vaccinations within the antenatal midwifery appointment schedule rather than going to general practice for a separate appointment. Conclusion: To support maternal RSV vaccination decision-making and access, women need vaccine information early in pregnancy; information provision through a range of different sources (i.e. online, paper, in-person); and vaccination delivery in a convenient location (i.e. as part of antenatal appointments).

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Cost analysis of a nationwide typhoid conjugate vaccine campaign in Burkina Faso

Koulidiati, J.-L.; Zoma, R. L.; Nebie, E. I.; Soumaila, Y.; Neya, C. O.; Kiendrebeogo, J. A.; Debellut, F.

2026-04-25 health economics 10.64898/2026.04.17.26350856 medRxiv
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BackgroundIn Burkina Faso, typhoid fever remains a major public health concern, with a high incidence among children younger than 15 years of age. To address this burden, the country introduced typhoid conjugate vaccine in January 2025 through a national vaccination campaign reaching children aged 9 months to 14 years. This study aimed to estimate the cost of typhoid conjugate vaccine delivery during the national campaign and to identify the main cost drivers across different administrative levels. MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional, retrospective costing study using a microcosting approach from the government perspective. We collected data from fifty health facilities, eight health districts, five health regions, and the national level. Financial and economic costs were estimated for each level, excluding vaccine and syringe costs. All costs were converted to 2024 USD using the official exchange rate. FindingsVaccinators administered a total of 10.5 million typhoid conjugate vaccine doses. The average financial cost per dose was $0.47 (95% CI: $0.39-$0.51), and the economic cost was $2.16 (95% CI: $1.71-$2.56). Human resources and per diem payments were the main contributors to costs. Costs varied by geography, delivery strategy, and security context, with higher costs observed in rural and conflict-affected areas. The mobile-temporary posts strategy had the highest economic cost per dose ($2.02; 95% CI: $1.64-$2.40), while the fixed strategy had the highest financial cost per dose ($0.41; 95% CI: ($0.32-$0.49). ConclusionThe financial cost per dose remained within Gavi, the Vaccine Alliances operational support range. The observed cost variations highlight the need for targeted funding and enhanced logistical support to ensure equitable access, particularly in rural and insecure areas. This study provides evidence to inform future vaccination campaigns and supports decision-making for typhoid conjugate vaccine introduction in other countries in the region.

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Development and evaluation of a dual target glycoconjugate vaccine against Shigella sonnei

Hall, C. L.; Flood, T.; Clare, S.; Harcourt, K.; Kay, E.; Baker, S.; Wren, B. W.

2026-03-26 microbiology 10.64898/2026.03.26.714513 medRxiv
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BackgroundShigellosis morbidity and mortality, combined with the increase in multidrug-resistant infections make Shigella vaccine development a global imperative. Glycoconjugate vaccines that couple immunogenic O-antigen to protein derived from Shigella may provide broader protection across Shigella species and serogroups. Such an approach also circumvents immunotolerance arising from repeated use of the same carrier. Here we use bioconjugation, exploiting an oligosaccharyltransferase (OST) enzyme to couple O-antigen and carrier protein in vivo, to generate a "double-hit" Shigella glycoconjugate vaccine. MethodGlycoconjugates were synthesised in E. coli SDB1 cells expressing S. sonnei O-antigen, the OST PglS, and one of two Shigella carrier proteins. Recombinant glycoconjugate was purified using anion exchange chromatography and then used to immunise mice. Antibody responses were measured and compared by ELISA. ResultsWhen co-produced in E. coli, PglS was able to transfer the cloned S. sonnei O-antigen onto three carrier proteins, modified to accept glycans from the PglS transferase enzymes- the standard bioconjugate carrier ExoA and two immunogenic Shigella-specific outer membrane proteins, EmrK and MdtA. Production of MdtA or ExoA glycoconjugates for immunisation studies utilised successive rounds of anion exchange chromatography, to remove unglycosylated material and obtain highly purified glycoconjugate proteins for us in vaccination. Analysis of murine sera following immunisation revealed an IgG response was raised against both carrier protein and the S. sonnei O-antigen for each glycoconjugate. ConclusionA novel, conserved Shigella protein can be utilised as an effective carrier for the generation of a "double-hit", immunogenic Shigella glycoconjugate vaccine that elicits IgG responses to both carrier protein and S. sonnei O-antigen.