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Vaccine

○ Elsevier BV

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match Vaccine's content profile, based on 203 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.13% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Potential impact of changes in influenza vaccination coverage and effectiveness on pediatric influenza burden in the United States, 2022/23-2024/25

Morris, S. E.; Mathis, S. M.; Chung, J. R.; DeCuir, J.; Olson, S. M.; Ellington, S.; O'Halloran, A.; Ujamaa, D.; Bozio, C. H.; Jain, A.; Srivastav, A.; Lu, P.-j.; Grohskopf, L. A.; Reed, C.; Iuliano, A. D.; Biggerstaff, M.

2026-10-01 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.09.25.26363797 medRxiv
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Background and Objectives: Influenza vaccination has a strong safety record and is effective in reducing pediatric influenza-associated morbidity and mortality. However, pediatric vaccination coverage (VC) has declined since the 2019/20 influenza season in the United States. We estimated the impact of increased vaccine protection (through increased VC and/or vaccine effectiveness [VE]) on pediatric influenza-associated burden during the 2022/23-2024/25 seasons. Methods: We used a compartmental model and laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalization, VC, and VE data among children 6 months-17 years to estimate influenza burden from 2022/23-2024/25 (the 'baseline' scenario) and the impact of vaccination. We simulated scenarios that (1) increased VC by five percentage points; (2) increased VE by five percentage points; (3) increased VC and VE by five percentage points; and (4) increased VC to levels achieved in 2019/20 (the season with the highest pediatric VC to date). We estimated the difference in hospitalizations and deaths between each scenario and the baseline scenario. Results: Among children 6 months-17 years, an estimated 120,000 influenza-associated hospitalizations and 1,650 deaths occurred across all seasons at baseline. Increasing VC to 2019/20 levels had the greatest estimated impact, reducing hospitalizations by 8,670 (7.2%) and deaths by 130 (7.9%). Increasing both VC and VE by five percentage points reduced hospitalizations by 6.6% and deaths by 6.7%, whereas increasing VC or VE by five percentage points reduced hospitalizations by 3.1% and deaths by 3.2%. Conclusions: Increasing pediatric influenza vaccination coverage back to 2019/20 levels was estimated to significantly reduce pediatric influenza-associated morbidity and mortality.

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Comparative immunogenicity and relative vaccine efficacy of recombinant and cell culture-based influenza vaccines: Results from a randomized trial of adults in the United States, 2024-2025

Sumner, K. M.; Noble, E. K.; Grant, L. B.; Meeker, J. R.; Murugan, V.; Nordstrom, L.; House, S. L.; Presti, R.; Walter, E. B.; Williams, O. L.; Saade, E. A.; Canaday, D. H.; Williams, K. V.; Zimmerman, R.; Gross, F. L.; Valencia, S.; Gurbaxani, B. M.; Lewis, N. M.; Li, Z.-N.; Mishin, V.; Gubareva, L.; Zhou, B.; Levine, M. Z.; Flannery, B. M.; Ellington, S.; US Flu VE Network Collaborators,

2026-10-02 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.10.01.26364413 medRxiv
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Background: Recombinant (RIV) and cell culture-based inactivated (ccIIV) influenza vaccines could improve seasonal influenza prevention; however, evidence is limited in how protection may differ among non-egg-based vaccines. Methods: We conducted a randomized trial of RIV versus ccIIV to compare vaccine immunogenicity in adults aged 18 to 64 years during the 2024-25 influenza season (ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT06518577). Active surveillance for influenza-like illness was conducted for six months post-vaccination and cumulative incidence of influenza by vaccine type was compared to estimate relative vaccine efficacy. Participants were tested for influenza by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction or rapid antigen tests. Immunogenicity was evaluated by hemagglutination inhibition (HAI), virus microneutralization (MN), and neuraminidase inhibition (NAI) assays in a subset of blood specimens collected pre-vaccination and one-month post-vaccination. Results: Among the 591 participants, 25 cases of influenza A were detected; 2.4% cumulative incidence among RIV recipients versus 6.1% among ccIIV recipients. The probability of influenza was 61% lower with RIV than ccIIV (95% confidence interval: 7 to 84). Among 151 participants, post-vaccination HAI and MN titers vaccine components were higher among RIV recipients while NAI titers were higher among ccIIV recipients. Conclusions: RIV provided better protection than ccIIV against influenza A illness in adults during the U.S. 2024-2025 season.

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Predicting the efficacy of Ervebo against Bundibugyo virus disease

Elias, K. M.; Egilmezer, E.; Khan, S. R.; Mitchell, A.; Reynaldi, A.; Berry, M. T.; Schlub, T. E.; Bailey, B. A.; Cromer, D.; Turner, T.; Stadler, E.; Davenport, M. P.; Khoury, D. S.

2026-10-05 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.10.02.26364627 medRxiv
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There is currently no clinical data for the effectiveness of the only licensed Ebola virus disease vaccine (Ervebo) against Bundibugyo virus disease. A number of studies have shown immune cross-reactivity with Bundibugyo virus after Ervebo vaccination. However, antibody recognition of Bundibugyo is around 2.8-fold lower than recognition of Ebola virus. Here, we aimed to infer how a 2.8-fold drop in immune recognition may affect Ervebo protection against Bundibugyo virus disease based on analysis of data on Ervebo immunogenicity and protection from Ebola virus disease. This work has three main components. Firstly, we analysed the timing of vaccine protection in the Ervebo pivotal ring vaccination clinical trial. Secondly, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of antibody responses to Ebola virus after Ervebo vaccination over time. Thirdly, we combined these data with previously reported data on the cross-reactivity to Bundibugyo virus to infer protection of Ervebo against Bundibugyo virus disease. We find that the clinical trial data for Ervebo supports vaccine protection beginning earlier than 10 days after vaccination. Secondly, binding antibody levels against Ebola virus on day 28 post vaccination (peak responses) were on average 12.9-fold (95% confidence interval, CI: 6.4 - 26.0) higher than on day 7, 6.3-fold (95% CI: 3.7 -10.8) higher than on day 10, and 2.5-fold (95% CI: 1.4 - 4.4) higher than on day 14 (neutralising antibodies showed similar results). Finally, we consider the scenarios where antibody levels to Ebola virus at day 7 or 10 are putative protective thresholds against Ebola virus disease, and we assume these thresholds also apply for Bundibugyo virus disease. Then, with a 2.8-fold reduction of responses to Bundibugyo compared to Ebola virus, we predict antibody responses to Bundibugyo virus after Ervebo vaccination are likely above these putative protective thresholds.

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Childhood and adolescent immunisation intentions post-COVID-19 in Lusaka, Zambia

Nyasa, M.; Sharma, A.; Kerkhoff, A. D.; Ngosa, D.; Shamoya, B.; Sikombe, K.; Simbeza, S.; Zulu, N.; Geng, E. H.; Pry, J. M.; Tourneau, N.

2026-09-23 public and global health 10.64898/2026.09.21.26363608 medRxiv
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BackgroundSince the COVID-19 pandemic, parental delays and refusals of well-established, safe, and effective childhood vaccinations have contributed to the resurgence of infectious diseases. This raises concerns that COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy may also extend to novel vaccines for children when introduced in the future. This study examined caregivers, who included healthcare workers (HCWs), perceptions of novel vaccinations for children ages 0-17 years old and intentions to vaccinate children and adolescents ages 12-17 years against COVID-19. MethodsWe conducted a secondary data analysis of a larger cross-sectional survey administered to parents/caregivers of children ages 0-17 years in Lusaka, Zambia, between 13 November and 15 December 2023. Vaccination intention for COVID-19 was specifically focused on caregivers of adolescents ages 12-17 years, following COVID-19 vaccination guidelines during the study. Descriptive statistics were used to explore demographic characteristics, vaccination history, and caregivers COVID-19 vaccination status, along with their childrens routine childhood vaccine histories and perceptions of COVID-19 and novel vaccinations. ResultsAmong 277 caregivers (66.8% women, median age: 35 years), 93.1% reported that their child had received all recommended routine childhood vaccinations. COVID-19 vaccine uptake was higher among HCWs (68.2% with [≥]2 doses) than among community members (40.8%) and having [≥]2 doses was associated with higher COVID-19 vaccine uptake among their adolescents ages 12-17 years. 58.0% of caregivers indicated that their 12-17 years old adolescents had received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose. Overall intention to further vaccinate children against COVID-19, especially among those already unvaccinated, remained low, with 24.7% of caregivers reporting no intent to vaccinate their children. Protection from hospitalization and death from malaria, TB, HIV, pneumonia, influenza, and diarrheal diseases were the most cited reason (79.1%) for intention to vaccinate children with novel vaccines for these diseases. The most prominent reasons for reluctance towards future vaccines were the fear of potential side effects (45.5%) and insufficient knowledge about vaccination benefits and risks (31.8%). Caregivers most trusted the Ministry of Health (86.6%) and healthcare professionals (66.8%) as sources of vaccine information. ConclusionsWhile routine childhood vaccine uptake remained high, acceptance of COVID-19 and future novel vaccines for children was lower and was influenced by caregivers own vaccination status. Targeted and transparent communication through trusted sources such as the Ministry of Health and healthcare professionals may be critical for addressing safety concerns and strengthening confidence in novel childhood vaccines.

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The Health and Economic Impact of the Adult-specific 21-valent (aPCV21) Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine vs PCV20 on Invasive Pneumococcal Disease Among Adults Aged 65 years in the United Kingdom: A Modeling Study

Mueller, P. P.; Simuzingili, M.; Matthews, I. R.; Yi, Z.; Owusu-Edusei, K.

2026-10-05 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.10.03.26364601 medRxiv
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Introduction: This study compared the health and economic impact of the 21-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (aPCV21) vs the 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV20) on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and post-meningitis sequelae (PMS) among adults aged 65 years and older in the United Kingdom (UK). Methods: A published Markov model was used to simulate a single-cohort of vaccine-naive adults who became eligible for age-based vaccination at age 65 years, with uptake occurring over time. The cohort was followed until a maximum age of 100 years. Model inputs were derived from publicly available national health data and published reports. Outcomes were discounted at 3.5% annually, and costs were adjusted to the 2024 Great Britain Pound ({pound}). Additional analyses explored the impact of changing the age-based recommendation from 65 years to 75 years. Scenarios involving instantaneous vaccine uptake rates were included as part of the sensitivity analyses. A deterministic sensitivity analysis was performed on the incremental direct medical costs between vaccinating with aPCV21 vs PCV20 under the age-based recommendation of 65 years. Results: Using an age-based recommendation of 65 years, aPCV21 led to fewer cases, deaths, and costs than PCV20. Compared with PCV20, aPCV21 averted an additional 138 IPD cases, 1 PMS case, and 22 IPD deaths, saving {pound}1.2 million in direct medical costs. Raising the age-based recommendation from 65 to 75 years and using aPCV21 (or PCV20, respectively), resulted in 120 (92) additional IPD cases, 2 (1) additional PMS case(s), 19 (14) additional IPD death(s), and an extra {pound}1.1 ({pound}0.8) million in direct medical costs. The deterministic sensitivity analysis showed that aPCV21 reduced direct medical costs across all parameter ranges. Conclusions: Compared with PCV20, aPCV21 prevented more IPD cases, IPD deaths, and direct medical costs among older adults in the UK. Changing the age-based recommendation from age 65 to 75 resulted in worse health and economic outcomes. Key words. Pneumococcal infections; pneumococcal vaccines; vaccines, conjugate; serotype; United Kingdom; health costs

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The Potential Public Health Benefit of mRNA-1010 for Influenza Among Older Adults >=65 Years in the United States

Fust, K.; Beck, E.; Kohli, M.; Cartier, S.; Weinstein, M. C.; Van de Velde, N.; Joshi, K.

2026-09-25 health economics 10.64898/2026.09.20.26363308 medRxiv
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Background/Objectives: Older adults are at high risk of influenza-related severe disease and complications. HD-IIV, currently recommended for adults [≥]65 years, is egg-based and may be subject to egg-adapted mutations. An mRNA-based vaccine for influenza, mRNA-1010, has been approved by the Food and Drug Administration. Given the clinical benefits observed in mRNA-1010 clinical trials and potential to avoid egg-adapted mutations, this analysis explores the clinical impact of mRNA-1010 compared to HD-IIV in those [≥]65 years in the United States. Methods: This study used a decision-analytic model of influenza infection and downstream outcomes to project influenza burden with each vaccine over a one-year timeframe. Vaccine coverage, HD-IIV vaccine effectiveness (VE) and influenza epidemiology was estimated based upon Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. The relative VE (rVE) for mRNA-1010 vs. HD-IIV was modelled based on data from the clinical trial and published literature on the impact of egg adaptation. Results: The base-case analysis suggests mRNA-1010 may prevent an additional 232,200 symptomatic influenza infections, 130,000 outpatient cases, 21,100 influenza-related hospitalizations, and 2,200 influenza-related deaths compared to HD-IIV. The number needed to vaccination to prevent one hospitalization was 514 or mRNA-1010 vs no vaccine and 404 for HD-IIV versus no vaccine, for an incremental NNV of 110. Scenario and deterministic sensitivity analyses results indicate that clinical outcomes prevented by mRNA-1010 are most sensitive to influenza incidence and VE. Conclusions: mRNA-1010 may improve protection against influenza in US adults aged [≥]65 years, leading to meaningful reductions in the clinical influenza-related disease burden in older adults.

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Ebola Disease Knowledge and Vaccine Acceptance in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Merritt, S.; Kindrachuk, J.; Nkamba, D.; Hoff, N. A.; Kalengi, H.; Halbrook, M.; Kamba, L.; Beya, M.; Petrichko, S.; Wallace, H. L.; Luhata, C.; Kaba, D.; Rimoin, A. W.

2026-10-19 public and global health 10.64898/2026.10.15.26365673 medRxiv
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We report general acceptance (79.0%) of Ebola vaccination in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) between 2023-2024 (n=5,062). Acceptance varied significantly by province with acceptance ranging from 47.6% in Kongo Central to 92.1% in Tshuapa province and was highest among healthcare workers. While Ebola vaccine acceptance and disease knowledge are relatively strong nationally in the DRC, regional differences do exist and may impact future vaccine rollout.

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Modelling the health and budget impact of introducing diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-containing-vaccine booster doses in Uganda

Hounsell, R.; Silal, S. P.; Norman, J.; Monyake, R.; Immaculate, A.; Besigye, A.; Biroma, G.; Magoola, J.; Kishore, N.; Pallas, S. E.; Ward, K.

2026-10-20 public and global health 10.64898/2026.10.15.26365602 medRxiv
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Routine infant vaccination has helped reduce cases and deaths from diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis globally. However, these diseases continue to pose serious health risks as protective immunity wanes over time. Three booster doses of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-containing vaccine (DTPCV) administered from 12-months to 15-years of age increase duration of protection beyond childhood. Growing demands on government health spending underscore the importance of understanding the health and economic impact of vaccines prior to introduction. Using an integrated multi-disease epidemiological-economic model, we estimated the health impact (cases averted, deaths averted, and changes to population immunity) and budget impact of introducing DTPCV booster doses in Uganda. Compared to no DTPCV boosters, introducing all three booster doses is projected to result in 2.2 times the proportion of the population protected against symptomatic diphtheria and 2.8 times against tetanus infection among Ugandans under 15 years of age by 2039. Compared to introduction of the early childhood booster (EC) at 18 months of age, introducing all three DTPCV boosters simultaneously is projected to avert 3.2 times the number of tetanus cases over fifteen years at 2.4 times the incremental cost. The projected government vaccination cost per planned dose was USD 0.58 for simultaneous introduction of all three boosters compared with USD 0.68 for the EC booster alone. The average annual incremental cost of all three DTPCV booster doses is USD 2.79 million. Under modelled assumptions, simultaneous introduction of all three DTPCV booster doses in Uganda provides the greatest health gains, with a lower government vaccination cost per planned dose than introduction of the EC booster alone, but may still pose affordability challenges for Ugandas government.

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Patterns of Influenza Vaccine Uptake by Age Group and Product Type in Michigan, 2017-2021

Zhou, Z.; Malosh, R.; Sudan, S.; Wagner, A.; Eisenberg, M. C.; Monto, A.; Martin, E. T.

2026-10-21 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.10.19.26365920 medRxiv
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Background Influenza vaccines have seen many changes over recent years in terms of both policy recommendations and product types. Immune responses and vaccine effectiveness vary by vaccine strain composition and product type. This study aimed to explore this variation on a regional level through examining spatial and temporal autocorrelations of vaccine uptake of different product types within Michigan from 2017 to 2021. Methods Influenza vaccine administration data from the 2017/18 to 2021/22 seasons were obtained from the Michigan Care Improvement Registry. Population size estimates for 2017 and 2019 were obtained from the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. Age-standardized and age-stratified vaccination rates were computed. Disparate county-level vaccine uptake clusters were constructed using spatial autocorrelation indicators and spatiotemporal clusters were identified using scan statistics. Linear mixed effect models were used to study the impact of social vulnerability and urbanicity level on seasonal influenza vaccination rate. Results Vaccination incidence rates for adjuvanted, recombinant, and nasal sprays vaccines and for any vaccines increased significantly through the study period. County-level spatiotemporal clusters of type-specific uptake rates were identified. Most notably, we identified an emerging cluster with high uptake of adjuvanted vaccine radiating from Ottawa County, located in suburban Grand Rapids, and the disappearance of high uptake cluster for high-dose vaccine uptake in the area. Vaccination rates by any product type were found to vary seasonally and showed weak negative association with more rural regions. The overall vaccination rates appear to be lower among counties with higher social vulnerability in certain urbanicity levels, but social vulnerability and urbanicity were not significantly associated with overall vaccination rate during the study period. Conclusions Vaccine type-specific uptake was spatially and temporally diverse in Michigan between 2017 and 2022. Mid and Northern Michigan had consistently relatively lower vaccination rate compared to other regions in Michigan.

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Absolute and Relative Effectiveness of High-Dose vs Standard-Dose Influenza Vaccines Against Severe Outcomes in Older Adults

Le Vu, S.; Gutierrez-Melo, N.; Cartailler, T.; Jabagi, M.-J.; Botton, J.; Olie, V.; Weill, A.; Dray-Spira, R.; Zureik, M.

2026-10-06 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.10.05.26364731 medRxiv
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Importance Several influenza vaccine products are available for older adults, but evidence combining both their absolute effectiveness and head-to-head comparisons within the same large population remains scarce, limiting product-specific vaccination guidance for this high-risk group. Objective To estimate the relative and absolute effectiveness of influenza vaccines against influenza-related hospitalization and in-hospital mortality among older adults. Design, Setting, and Participants Nationwide cohort study using the French National Health Data System (SNDS), including all adults born in 1958 or earlier, living in metropolitan France, at the start of the 2023-2024 campaign. Relative effectiveness (rVE) was assessed using a landmark design with exposure fixed before epidemic onset. Absolute effectiveness (VE) was assessed using a sequential trial emulation with weekly matching of newly vaccinated individuals to yet unvaccinated controls. Follow-up ran from December 5, 2023 to April 19, 2024. Exposures Vaccination with a high-dose (Efluelda) or one of three standard-dose quadrivalent vaccines (Influvac, Fluarix, Vaxigrip), compared individually or by dosage category, and against no vaccination. Main Outcomes and Measures Hospitalization with a diagnosis of influenza and death during such hospitalization. Effectiveness was estimated as 1 minus the hazard ratio from weighted Cox models, with corresponding numbers needed to vaccinate to prevent one case. Results Among 13.8 million eligible individuals, 5.7 million (41%) were vaccinated at the beginning of follow-up. The high-dose vaccine showed greater rVE than standard-dose vaccines against hospitalization (27% [95%CI, 23 to 31%]) and in-hospital death (27% [95%CI,14 to 38%]). Absolute VE was 39% (95%CI, 38 to 41%) against hospitalization and 45% (95%CI, 40 to 49%) against in-hospital death, and was higher for the high-dose vaccine (50%) than standard-dose vaccines (36%) against hospitalization. This difference was most evident among adults 70 years and older, while overall effectiveness declined with age. Conclusions and Relevance In this study, influenza vaccination conferred moderate protection against severe outcomes in older adults, and high-dose vaccination was associated with significantly greater effectiveness than standard-dose vaccines, particularly among adults 70 years and older. These findings support product-level differentiation in vaccination strategy for this population.

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Effect of HPV Vaccine Introduction at 9-10 years: A Randomized Clinical Trial

Kempe, A.; Vangala, S.; Albertin, C.; O'Leary, S.; Beaty, B.; Saville, A. W.; Gurfinkel, D.; Humiston, S.; Nagel, S.; Singh, J.; Golden, C.; Woo, H.; Clark, E.; Szilagyi, P. G.

2026-09-27 pediatrics 10.64898/2026.09.24.26363898 medRxiv
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Importance: In the US, Human papillomavirus (HPV) related cancers cause significant morbidity and mortality, yet HPV vaccine is underutilized. Vaccination is recommended routinely at age 11-12 years but can be given at 9 years. There is controversy about whether earlier introduction would increase completion of the HPV series before by age 13 years or whether it might decrease rates of delivery of other routinely recommended vaccines at 11-12-years [quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate (MenACWY) vaccine, and tetanus-diptheria-acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccine]. Objective: To determine whether introduction of the HPV vaccine at ages 9-10 versus 11-12 years, results in earlier median age of series completion (primary outcome) and higher rates of initiation and completion by age 13 years. We also examined the effect of earlier introduction of HPV on rates of Tdap and MenACWY initiation and completion by age 13 years. Design: Two-arm cluster-randomized trial involving 31 pediatric practices in Colorado and California between 10/2021-4/2026. Practices were randomized using covariate constrained randomization within each state to Intervention (introduction of HPV vaccination at ages 9-10) or Control (introduction at ages 11-12). Both study groups received similar annual training about best practices for HPV vaccination with recommended initiation age as the only difference. Results: Age at HPV series completion was substantially earlier in the Intervention group (median 12.2 v. 13.3 years; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.37; 95% CI 1.94-2.89). Key secondary outcomes were also improved in the intervention group: age at series initiation (median 11.0 v. 11.8 years; aHR 2.19; 95% CI 1.84-2.62), series completion by 13 years (61.6% v. 45.1%; RR 1.37; 95% CI 1.04-1.74), and vaccine initiation by age 13 years (77.1% v. 67.0%; RR 1.15; 95% CI 1.00-1.33). The intervention group was more likely to receive Tdap (aHR 1.47;95%CI 1.13, 1.92) during the trial; receipt of both vaccines by age 13 years did not differ. Conclusions: Earlier introduction of HPV vaccination resulted in earlier age of series completion, and more adolescents initiating and completing the series by age 13 without decreasing rates of other routinely recommended vaccines. Our findings support a preferential recommendation at 9-10 years. Trial registration number: NCT04722822 ClinicalTrial.gov

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Therapeutic Equivalence, Immunogenicity, and Safety of Euvichol Oral Cholera Vaccine Formulations Compared with WHO-prequalified Shanchol vaccine in Healthy Children and Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomised Controlled Trials

Al-Dhayani, K. M.; Hasan, Z. A.; Alastah, K. B. A.; Altbal, S. M.; Al-Eryani, M. S.

2026-09-24 pharmacology and toxicology 10.64898/2026.09.19.752908 medRxiv
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Background: Global oral cholera vaccine (OCV) supply shortages and the retirement of Shanchol necessitate absolute reliance on alternative formulations. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the immunogenicity and safety of Euvichol variants compared with the historical Shanchol benchmark. Methodology/Principal Findings: A searched PubMed, Embase, MEDLINE, Scopus, and Cochrane CENTRAL up to May 2026 for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing any Euvichol variant against Shanchol in healthy populations aged [≥]1 year. Primary outcomes were vibriocidal seroconversion rates at 14 days post-dose 2 pooled as Risk Ratios (RRs) via Mantel-Haenszel fixed-effects models. Five RCTs comprising 7,253 participants were included. Euvichol formulations demonstrated non-inferior, equivalent seroconversion rates compared with Shanchol for both Vibrio cholerae O1 Inaba (RR 1.00, 95% CI 0.98-1.02; I2=0%) and O1 Ogawa (RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.99-1.04; I2=26%). Log-transformed Geometric Mean Titers confirmed clinical equivalence for Inaba (MD 0.02, 95% CI -0.01 to 0.05) and Ogawa (MD 0.00, 95% CI -0.03 to 0.03). Overall safety was balanced between arms, showing no significant variation in the risk of any solicited adverse event (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.75-1.11) or specific symptoms including fever (RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.52-1.35). Serious adverse events were rare and uniformly unrelated to vaccination. Conclusions/Significance: Euvichol variants demonstrate immunogenic non-inferiority and interchangeable safety thresholds compared with Shanchol. These findings robustly support the large-scale integration of modern Euvichol-Plus and streamlined Euvichol-S formulations to stabilize global OCV stockpiles.

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Nipah vaccine and monoclonal antibody introduction: Understanding endemic and at-risk country perspectives to inform demand forecasting

Dinkel, K. A.; Ruisch, A.; Mathur, I.; Bowe, R. T.; Windus, P.; Nonvignon, J.; Walker, D. G.; Torkelson, A. A.

2026-09-23 public and global health 10.64898/2026.09.21.26363632 medRxiv
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BackgroundNipah virus (NiV) is a zoonotic pathogen in the Henipavirus genus that causes severe, often fatal disease in humans. The World Health Organization and the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) have designated NiV as a priority pathogen with pandemic potential. While CEPI is funding research on medical countermeasures, including vaccines and monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), there remains limited understanding of how at-risk countries will use them. This study aims to address this gap through targeted interviews and demand forecasting for 10 countries: Australia, Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Methodology/Principal FindingsInterviews with country and global stakeholders gathered data on regional sentiment, financing, and affordability. Profiles were developed to summarize each countrys perceived outbreak risk and their likely use of countermeasures. Demand was estimated by integrating these perspectives into models of likely country-level responses to three NiV outbreak scenarios: Expected, Amplified, and Extended. In the Expected scenario, countries focused on reactive use with global annual demand ranging from approximately 800 to 5,000 doses for vaccine-only, mAb-only, and combination interventions. Ring strategies were preferred given outbreak size and infrequency. Demand was highest for vaccine-only and combination interventions, with lower demand for mAbs-only due to affordability concerns and less familiarity in Bangladesh and India. In Amplified and Extended scenarios, countries expanded their responses to include preventive campaigns for healthcare workers and rural populations. These campaigns would require approximately 410,000 and 6,300,000 doses, respectively, if introduced in all 10 countries. Conclusions/SignificanceThis study has revealed existing sentiments regarding Nipah disease and interventions and modeled demand across three outbreak scenarios. Given global annual demand based on current epidemiology, Nipah countermeasure markets are unlikely to be commercially viable solely on routine country-financed demand. Instead, market health will require external financing and stockpile mechanisms to maintain demand between sporadic outbreaks. Author SummaryNipah virus (NiV), which causes severe and often fatal disease in humans, is recognized by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) as a priority pathogen with pandemic potential. In response, CEPI has supported the development of vaccines and monoclonal antibodies (mAb). However, limited evidence exists on how at-risk countries will deploy these medical countermeasures. We interviewed key decision-makers across 10 at-risk countries, along with global experts on NiV, to better understand disease prioritization, financing and affordability considerations, and countermeasure preferences. Interview findings informed the development of a demand forecast in response to Nipah outbreaks of varying intensity. At expected outbreak levels, countries focused their response on reactive strategies given outbreak size and infrequency. As outbreaks grew in size, countries considered expanding their response to include preventive campaigns targeting healthcare workers and at-risk, rural populations. This study provides new insights into country-level perspectives on NiV and medical countermeasures and quantifies expected demand across three outbreak scenarios and 10 countries. Our findings can provide a foundation for the strategic development of an international Nipah countermeasure stockpile, designed to address episodic NiV outbreaks and enhance pandemic preparedness.

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Rethinking seasonal COVID-19 vaccination in the endemic era: summer timing, eligibility, and frequency in the United States

Bubar, K. M.; Park, H. J.; Bents, S. J.; Tan, S. T.; Singer, B. J.; Kelly, J. D.; Leon, T. M.; Watt, J.; Schechter, R.; Lo, N. C.

2026-09-25 public and global health 10.64898/2026.09.23.26363810 medRxiv
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Importance: With a recent shift towards summer seasonal predominance of COVID-19 across much of the US, debate continues over optimal COVID-19 vaccination strategies regarding timing (including summer vaccination), eligibility, and dosing frequency. We evaluated the population-level impact of alternative vaccine strategies to inform US and state vaccine policy. Objective: To compare reductions in COVID-19 hospitalizations under different vaccination timing, eligibility, and dosing frequency. Design: Decision analytical model using a stochastic individual-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, calibrated to US COVID-19 hospitalization incidence from May 2024-April 2025. Setting: Simulated US national population, with additional scenarios representing state-level seasonal patterns. Participants: Simulated population of 5 million individuals with US age structure, stratified by risk group (immunocompetent, high risk with comorbid conditions, or immunocompromised). Exposures: Vaccination timing, universal or age- and risk-based eligibility, and dosing frequency, including a hybrid strategy of universal annual vaccination with a second dose for adults [≥]65 years and immunocompromised adults (US vaccine policy during the study period). Main Outcomes and Measures: COVID-19 hospitalization risk per 100,000 persons by age-risk group, measured among vaccinated individuals and in the total population. Results: If summer COVID-19 vaccination timing is feasible, annual universal vaccination in July minimized risk (441 [95% UI: 423-463] COVID-19 hospitalizations per 100,000 persons among adults [≥]65 years) compared to a counterfactual scenario with no additional vaccination given during the study period (578 [553-601]). If timing does not change, hybrid vaccination minimized risk, followed by semiannual risk-based vaccination (460 [440-487] and 477 [454-499] hospitalizations per 100,000 in adults [≥]65 years, respectively). The advantage of summer timing diminished if vaccine coverage decreased by 5-10 absolute percentage points (25-50% relative decrease). The magnitude of benefit from summer-timed vaccination and semiannual doses in the highest-risk groups varied regionally. Conclusions and Relevance: Although annual COVID-19 vaccination has historically been timed for winter transmission, summer vaccination may avert more hospitalizations if coverage is maintained, especially in states with predominantly summer transmission including Western and Southern states. The comparative impact of vaccination strategies, especially the benefit of a semiannual dose in the highest-risk groups, may vary regionally. COVID-19 vaccination timing and eligibility may warrant reconsideration.

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Phase 1 durability study of a single dose of the live-attenuated cholera vaccine PanChol and the safety and immunogenicity of a second dose

Leitner, D. R.; Walsh, S. R.; Sherman, A. C.; Hannaford, A.; Doranga, S.; Suzuki, M.; Balazs, G. I.; Hammerness, E.; Nguyen, K. T.; Izaguirre, N. E.; Sinha, A. R.; Haugh-Klockner, M. I.; Tong, A.; Li, X.; Slater, D. M.; Puri, N.; Harris, J. B.; Piantadosi, S.; Baden, L. R.; Waldor, M. K.

2026-10-14 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.10.13.26365415 medRxiv
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Background Killed whole-cell oral cholera vaccines require multiple doses and have reduced efficacy in young children, limiting their utility. PanChol is a single-dose, oral live-attenuated cholera vaccine engineered from a current seventh pandemic El Tor O1 Vibrio cholerae strain. PanChol was shown to be safe and immunogenic in a previous phase 1a trial. In participants from this first-in-human trial, we aimed to assess the durability of the initial PanChol dose and the safety and immunogenicity of a second dose. Methods This open-label phase 1a booster study was conducted at Brigham and Women's Hospital (Boston, MA). Eligible participants were healthy adults aged 18-55 years without a history of cholera or gastrointestinal disorders and had received a PanChol dose ranging from 105-1010 colony-forming units (CFU) within the previous 322-1111 days. All participants received a booster dose of 2x107 CFU. The primary outcome was safety, including solicited, unsolicited, and serious adverse events following the second dose of PanChol. Secondary endpoints were the magnitude of pre- and post-vaccination serum vibriocidal titers to both Inaba and Ogawa V. cholerae, including seroconversion (4-fold rise in titers over baseline), and stool shedding of PanChol organisms using quantitative and qualitative stool cultures. Comparisons of the amount of vaccine shedding in stool following primary and secondary immunization were used to assess the intestinal mucosal immunity elicited by the initial PanChol dose. All outcomes were assessed in all participants. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05657782, and is complete. Findings Between Aug 25, 2025, and Feb 20, 2026, 20 healthy adults who previously received a single oral dose of PanChol were enrolled to receive a booster dose of 2x107 CFU. Eleven (55%) of 20 participants were male and the median age was 43{middle dot}6 (IQR 30{middle dot}2-49{middle dot}5). Ten (50%) were White and 17 (85%) were not Hispanic or Latino. Nine (45%) of 20 boost recipients reported at least one solicited adverse event; 13 (93%) of 14 events were mild, and all were transient. The most common solicited adverse event was nausea, reported by 4 (20%) participants; all cases were mild. Most unsolicited adverse events were mild; one was grade 3 and was deemed unrelated to vaccination. Two unsolicited adverse events were deemed related to vaccination (mild gassy sensation and heartburn, both of which occurred on day 1 and resolved the same day). In most participants, vibriocidal antibody titers measured on the day of boosting exceeded baseline titers prior to the initial dose (17 (85%) for Inaba and 14 (70%) for Ogawa). Fifteen (75%) of 20 boost recipients seroconverted vibriocidal antibody titers to both serotypes. After the boost, 17 (85%) participants had no or self-limited vaccine shedding, compared with 10% after the first PanChol dose. Interpretation A second oral dose of PanChol had a favorable safety profile and induced vibriocidal seroconversion to both serotypes in 75% of boost recipients. Intestinal colonization of PanChol following the boost serves as a proxy for measuring mucosal immunity targeting V. cholerae. The decrease in in the abundance of PanChol fecal shedding following the second dose, compared with the first, suggests that a single dose of PanChol is sufficient to confer durable protective immunity against a cholera challenge. These observations underscore the need for further clinical development of PanChol. Funding Wellcome Trust.

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National trends of unique-PCV20 / PCV21 serotypes, common PCV20-PCV21 and non-vaccine serotypes causing invasive pneumococcal disease in adults in Spain during the period 2009-2026

Garcia-Gonzalez, E.; Sempere, J.; Llamosi, M.; Perez-Garcia, C.; Ubeda, A.; Sanchez-Honrado, A.; Agullo, L.; Ardanuy, C.; Perez-Fernandez, L.; Ocampo-Sosa, A.; Ramos-Sevillano, E.; Brown, J. S.; Domenech, M.; Yuste, J.

2026-09-24 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.09.22.26363691 medRxiv
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Objectives: To evaluate the epidemiological evolution of unique pneumococcal serotypes covered by either PCV20 or PCV21, common serotypes by both vaccines and non-vaccine serotypes in adults. Methods: We characterized all national IPD clinical isolates from January 2009 to June 2026. Results: The highest burden of IPD was caused by serotypes shared between PCV20 and PCV21 with serotypes 3 and 8 the most prevalent in adults of all ages. During the pre-pandemic period, IPD caused by unique-PCV20 serotypes declined probably due to herd protection by paediatric vaccination with PCVs. In contrast, unique-PCV21 serotypes increased in incidence accounting for more cases than unique-PCV20 serotypes. However, after the COVID-19 pandemic, a different pattern was observed with unique-PCV20 serotypes increasing in incidence due a marked rise in IPD caused by serotypes 4 and 14 that has progressively reduced the gap in disease coverage. In adults aged 18-64 years, the fraction of disease that could be prevented with PCV20/PCV21 changed from 5% in favour of PCV21 (years 2022/2023) to 15% in favour of PCV20 (year 2026) whereas in adults [≥]65 years the vaccine contribution declined from 20% in favour of PCV21 (year 2022) to 8% in 2026. Conclusions: IPD trends in adults have changed after the COVID-19 pandemic, especially in recent years. Our study emphasizes the rapid re-emergence of infections caused by traditional PCV7 serotypes especially serotypes 4 and 14 and reinforce the idea that the use of broader PCVs must be accompanied by an increase in the uptake rates in adults of all ages.

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Longitudinal Filovirus Seroreactivity Following Ad26.ZEBOV (Zabdeno) and MVA-BN-Filo (Mvabea) Vaccination in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Wallace, H. L.; Halbrook, M. L.; Kompany, J. P.; Hoff, N. A.; Merritt, S.; Mukadi, P.; Beya, M.; Kalengi, H.; Tambu, M.; Mossoko, Z.; Kelly, J. D.; Ball, A. H.; To, A.; Wong, T.; Kavunga-Membo, H.; Hensley, L. E.; Lehrer, A. T.; Kindrachuk, J.; Mbala-Kingebeni, P.; Rimoin, A. W.

2026-10-19 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.10.15.26365698 medRxiv
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Background: Filoviruses, specifically Ebola virus (EBOV), Bundibugyo virus (BDBV), and Marburg virus (MARV), have been the etiologic agents of multiple outbreaks of severe disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Two EBOV-specific vaccine regimens have been approved for use in outbreak scenarios, including the Ad26.ZEBOV/MVA-BN-Filo (Zabdeno/Mvabea) two-dose vaccine, where the MVA-BN-Filo booster dose contains EBOV, MARV, and Sudan (SUDV) virus glycoproteins (GPs) and the nucleoprotein from Tai Forest virus. While long-term immunogenicity of up to two years has been found in clinical trial settings, limited real-world data exists. Methods: Using a multiplexed immunoassay, samples (n=698 at baseline) collected in Mbandaka, Equateur province, DRC, between September 2023 and October 2024 were assessed for seroreactivity to six filovirus antigens (1 BDBV, 2 EBOV, 2 MARV, and 1 SUDV) at three distinct periods: baseline/pre-vaccination, 6-8 weeks post-first dose (Zabdeno), at booster administration (Mvabea), and one-year post-boost dose. Results: Substantial filovirus seroreactivity was found at baseline, with 48.7% (n=340/698) of individuals being seroreactive to at least one virus antigen. High baseline seroreactivity was found against BDBV GP (31.1%, n=217/698), with lower baseline seroreactivity to EBOV GP (15.5%, n=106/698), comparatively. Overall EBOV GP seroreactivity increased to 66.8% (n=376/563) at one year-post vaccine boost and 57.6% (n=250/434) of participants were seroreactive. Despite the booster dose inclusion of SUDV GP and MARV GP, there were no substantial increases in reactivity against either antigen at subsequent timepoints. Overall filovirus seroreactivity increased at all timepoints for the entire cohort, although filovirus reactivity decreased over the study period for those who were seroreactive at baseline. Findings: These data highlight detection of significantly elevated seoreactivity to EBOV GP following first-dose administration of Ad26.ZEBOV, which remained relatively stable one-year post-booster dose administration. Additionally, this study identifies high levels of baseline seroreactivity to BDBV GP despite no previous documented outbreaks in this region of DRC. These data suggest that vaccination with the Ad26.ZEBOV-MVA-BN-Filo vaccine induces stable seroreactivity against EBOV GP, but not to other filovirus antigens.

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A loopless subdomain of transferrin binding protein B can elicit a broadly cross-reactive humoral immune response targeting variants from both encapsulated and non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae

Ewasechko, N. F.; Curran, D. M.; Samaniego-Barron, L.; Izydorczyk, C.; Lee, S. Z.; Parkins, M. D.; Schryvers, A. B.

2026-09-29 immunology 10.64898/2026.09.23.753870 medRxiv
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Haemophilus influenzae is a Gram-negative bacterium that causes pneumonia, otitis media, and invasive infections such as meningitis and bacteremia. A vaccine that confers protection against disease caused by H. influenzae serotype b is currently available and is highly effective, but infections caused by non-b serotypes and non-typeable strains are still prevalent and increasing, suggesting a need for a broadly cross-protective vaccine that will protect against infection by all H. influenzae strains. To address the need for broad cross-protection, this study focused on the surface lipoprotein component of the bipartite bacterial transferrin receptor, transferrin binding protein B (TbpB), which is universally present H. influenzae, irrespective of encapsulation status, and is essential for bacterial colonization and pathogenesis. To prevent vaccine escape, we assessed the sequence and structural diversity among TbpB variants derived from local and international H. influenzae isolates and observed that these sequences cluster independently of encapsulation status, suggesting that conferring protection against all H. influenzae strains regardless of capsule type or presence of a capsule using a TbpB-based vaccine is feasible. In addition, our diversity analysis also revealed that the C-terminal lobe (C-lobe) of TbpB contains several large, highly variable loops. After immunizing mice with a trivalent vaccine consisting of a representative set of TbpB variants, we found that the resulting antiserum demonstrated modest cross-reactivity against heterologous TbpB variants. However, immunizing with a loopless C-lobe (LCL) that lacks the large, highly variable loops we had identified elicited broad cross-reactivity against a panel of intact TbpB variants. This suggests that while the intact TbpB may only generate a moderately cross-reactive antibody response, a vaccine consisting of a single LCL may be able to elicit a sufficiently cross-reactive humoral response against diverse TbpB variants, and in turn, confer broad cross-protection targeting both encapsulated and non-typeable H. influenzae.

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The impact of COVID-19 vaccination on long COVID prevention in the Omicron era: An updated systematic review and meta-analysis

Marjenberg, Z.; Peluso, M. J.; Wynberg, E.; Abduljawad, S.

2026-10-13 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.10.12.26365288 medRxiv
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Objectives To evaluate the impact of COVID-19 vaccination on the prevention of long COVID (LC) in the Omicron era through an updated systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods We performed an update of our previously published systematic review and meta-analysis of vaccination and LC risk (searches between 1 January 2022 and 1 March 2024). Databases (Embase, MEDLINE, PubMed, Europe PMC, LILACS, Cochrane COVID-19 Study Register) were searched for studies published between 1 March 2024 and 13 July 2026. Observational studies assessing the impact of vaccination on the risk of LC four or more weeks after SARS-CoV-2 infection were included. Vaccines were restricted to those centrally authorised in the European Union. Random-effects meta-analyses, restricted to adults, were performed to calculate pooled odds ratios (OR) of LC in three comparisons: vaccinated (any dose) versus unvaccinated; booster vaccination versus unvaccinated; and booster vaccination versus primary course vaccination only. Results Nineteen new studies were identified, of which ten were included in the updated meta-analyses alongside eight studies from the original review. The pooled OR of LC in vaccinated adults (any dose) versus unvaccinated was 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67-0.84; 13 studies). ORs were also lower for booster vaccination versus unvaccinated (0.73; 95% CI 0.65-0.82; 6 studies), and booster vaccination versus primary course vaccination (0.63; 95% CI 0.53-0.75; 6 studies). Significant associations between vaccination and lower LC odds were observed in subgroup analyses of mRNA-only vaccination and LC outcomes three or more months after infection. Conclusions This updated review and meta-analysis reinforces our previous finding that vaccination may reduce the burden of LC in the Omicron era, with booster doses potentially providing additional protection. Although evidence in high-risk groups now prioritised for vaccination in most countries remains limited, these findings clearly demonstrate the benefits of vaccination and support current seasonal vaccination strategies.

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Effectiveness of nirsevimab against hospitalization for RSV bronchiolitis according to RSV lineages

Barbier, M.; Levy, C.; Cohen, R.; Valtuille, Z.; Assad, Z.; Yang, J.-s.; Fafi, I.; Lenglart, L.; Bechet, S.; Osei, L.; Launay, E.; Gras Le Guen, C.; Gajdos, V.; Jeziorski, E.; De Pontual, L.; Basmaci, R.; Rameix-Welti, M.-A.; Ouldali, N.; Fourati, S.; French RSV Surveillance Network,

2026-09-29 pediatrics 10.64898/2026.09.28.26364231 medRxiv
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Importance: Nirsevimab, a monoclonal antibody against RSV, was implemented in France in September 2023. Recently, rare resistance-associated substitutions were described in RSV but the effectiveness according to lineages remains unclear. Objective: We aimed to estimate the effectiveness of nirsevimab against hospitalization for RSV bronchiolitis according to RSV lineages. Design: We conducted a multicenter test-negative case-control study from October 15, 2023 to March 15, 2025. Setting: This study was based on data from three national multicentric prospective studies. The 12 participating centers were secondary or tertiary hospital with a pediatric department located in France. Participants: We included all children younger than 12 months who were hospitalized for RSV bronchiolitis in one of the participating centers in France during the two first RSV epidemic seasons following the implementation of nirsevimab (from October 15, 2023 to February 29, 2024, and from October 10, 2024 to March 15, 2025). Main outcomes and measures: The main outcome of the study was the RSV test result of bronchiolitis cases. RSV whole-genome sequencing was performed using a tiled amplicon approach covering the complete viral genome, as previously described in the POLYRES studies. We estimated the effectiveness of nirsevimab by a multivariable logistic regression model adjusted for potential confounders. We estimated the adjusted risk of immunization failure for each lineage by calculating relative odds ratio to a reference lineage. A range of sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results: We included 3019 infants with bronchiolitis among which 2273 had a positive RSV test (case patients) and 746 had a negative RSV test (control patients). Overall, 373/2273 (16.4%) case patients were immunized by nirsevimab versus 423/746 (56.7%) control patients. The adjusted effectiveness of nirsevimab against hospitalization for bronchiolitis was 88.4% (95% CI, 84.5-91.4) with RSV-B and 79.4% (95% CI, 73.7-83.8) with RSV-A. The risk of immunization failure was 3.2-fold (95% CI 1.8-5.7) higher for lineages derived from A.D.3 than for lineages derived from B.D.4.1. Conclusion and relevance: In this multicentric case-control study, we observed that nirsevimab effectiveness was variable across RSV lineages, with a lower effectiveness against A.D.3 lineages compare to others. Further surveillance is needed to confirm these findings and assess their implication on RSV lineages epidemiology as nirsevimab use expands.