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IFAC-PapersOnLine

Elsevier BV

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match IFAC-PapersOnLine's content profile, based on 13 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
CFD-based Bayesian Optimization of Stirring Strategies in Stirred Tank Cultures of Pluripotent Stem Cell Spheroids

Horiguchi, I.; Okada, K.; Okano, Y.

2026-07-07 bioengineering 10.64898/2026.07.06.735037 medRxiv
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The suspension culture of pluripotent stem (PS) cells in stirred bioreactors poses a delicate balance between maintaining homogeneous cell dispersion and avoiding excessive shear stress that can compromise cell viability and pluripotency. In this study, we used computational fluid dynamics (CFD) coupled with a discrete particle method (DPM) to simulate iPS cell behavior in a 5 mL delta-impeller stirred tank. Our analysis revealed that upward flow at the tank bottom and downward flow at the top are critical for maintaining a stable suspension. To optimize the stirring protocol, we applied Bayesian optimization to identify a time-dependent stirring schedule that begins with a high-speed phase for resuspension, followed by a low-speed phase for sustained suspension with minimal hydrodynamic stress. The optimized schedule demonstrated improved suspension ratio and reduced slip velocity, indicating lower mechanical stress on cells. These findings provide engineering insights into scalable bioreactor operation, contributing to the design of robust iPS cell manufacturing systems.

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Weak form Scientific Machine Learning for Systems Biology: A Tutorial on WENDy

Heitzman-Breen, N.; Lyons, R.; Jain, P.; Jolly, M. K.; Bortz, D. M.

2026-07-09 systems biology 10.64898/2026.07.02.735880 medRxiv
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Mechanistic ordinary differential equation models are widely used in systems biology to represent biochemical networks, population dynamics, cell-state transitions, and other biological processes; however, their predictive value depends critically on accurate parameter estimation from noisy and often sparse experimental data. In this tutorial, we present the Weak-form Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamics (WENDy) method as a forward-solver-free approach that reformulates parameter estimation as a covariance-corrected weak-form regression problem by integrating the model equations against compactly supported test functions. We present the background on the methodology through the lens of the familiar logistic equation, and we demonstrate applications of the method on real experimental data through two systems biology examples: a glycolytic oscillator with relatively dense time-course data and a sparse epithelial-mesenchymal cellstate transition model with multiple experimental replicates. Ultimately, using WENDy, we estimate interpretable biological parameters with uncertainty for systems with noisy and sometimes sparse available experimental data.

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Modeling and validation of parallel co-flows layer widths in open-capillary trigger valve systems

Caira, T.; Tokihiro, J.; Shaposhnikov, A.; Whitten, J. M.; Su, X.; Shin, A.; Robertson, I. H.; Nicholson, T. M.; Olanrewaju, A. O.; Berthier, E.; Theberge, A. B.; Berthier, J.

2026-06-26 bioengineering 10.64898/2026.06.25.734354 medRxiv
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Control of fluids is a hallmark of microfluidic systems and fundamental for the successful application of microfluidic devices. Trigger valves use geometric features to autonomously control the release of fluids in microfluidic devices. Our previous work has adapted geometries used in closed trigger valve systems to enable use in open systems, allowing for open microfluidic devices with up to three trigger valves. Here, we focus on the parallel co-flows produced by sequential release of trigger valves and present a model that predicts their layer widths as a function of the geometric characteristics of the different side channels of each trigger valve. We show layered co-flows with widths as low as 50 microns. Additionally, we expand the use of trigger valves in open microfluidic devices by incorporating 1) varied step heights, 2) devices with up to seven trigger valves, and 3) use of varied fluids and plastics. To validate the implementation and use of these trigger valves in open systems, we have developed a theoretical framework to compare predicted outcomes (i.e., fluid travel distance, velocity, and layering width) with our experimental values. This theoretical work offers applications in various fields, including hydrogel patterning for 3D cell culture, organ-on-a-chip models, at-home sample preparation, and autonomous microfluidic systems for biosensing.

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Synapse-based bispecific immune cell engager model predicts invariance in synapse behavior across different effector-to-tumor cell ratios

Chevalier, M.; Zhang, Z.; Tolsma, J.; Zager, M.

2026-06-29 pharmacology and toxicology 10.64898/2026.06.24.733437 medRxiv
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Immune cell engagers (ICE) such as bispecific antibodies (bsAbs), within an immunological synapse, bind and link CD3 on a T cell to a target antigen (TAA) on a cancer cell, forming a trimer (CD3:bsAb:TAA complex). With sufficient trimer numbers within the synapse, the T cell can become activated and promote cancer cell killing. Elranatamab, a CD3-bispecific antibody for multiple myeloma, has received FDA and EMA filing acceptance (August 2023 and December 2023, respectively) adding to a growing list of bsAbs that are treating patients. In the drug development stages of ICE bsAbs, mechanistic modeling approaches are often used to attain a greater quantitative understanding of the modality, preclinically, and provide human pharmacokinetic and efficacious dose predictions to aide in Phase 1 trial design. To date, the majority of ordinary differential equation (ODE) trimer models treat the tumor compartment as well-mixed and trimer formation is governed by a bulk population reaction not accounting for individual synapses. This lack of discrimination can lead to imprecise analysis when analyzing results across E:T ratios using metrics like trimers per T cell or trimers per target cell. To this end we developed an ODE trimer model based on single-synapse complexes (one target cell/one immune cell) with 2D cross-linking trimer formation. We show computationally that the number of trimers per synapse is invariant to the value of the E:T ratio for a given free bsAb concentration, a property that cannot be captured by non-synapse models. A simple demonstration of this discrepancy using the well-known Betts trimer model is presented. We then apply the Betts trimer model coupled to a tumor growth inhibition (TGI) module to show that our synapse-based trimer model is easy to substitute in to model TGI, including the addition of a trimer-per-synapse activation threshold function for cell killing. Overall, our model attempts to balance mechanistic fidelity while limiting the complexity of the model.

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Large-scale analysis of optimisation methods for parameter estimation problems in the life sciences

Grein, S.; Penas, D. R.; Weindl, D.; Lakrisenko, P.; Banga, J. R.; Hasenauer, J.

2026-07-13 systems biology 10.64898/2026.07.11.737731 medRxiv
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Dynamic models are central to the computational life sciences but typically contain unknown parameters that must be inferred from experimental data. High-throughput measurements have made this task increasingly challenging, yielding high-dimensional search spaces and non-convex objectives with many local optima. This makes the choice of optimisation method critical. However, existing empirical studies either consider only a limited number of benchmark problems or only a narrow spectrum of local, global and hybrid optimisation methods. Here, we present a comprehensive benchmark of a broad range of optimisation methods on a curated collection of parameter estimation problems, comprising 990 method-problem-pairs executed on two independent supercomputing infrastructures. Our evaluation quantifies success rates, solution quality and computational cost, revealing characteristic strengths and limitations of each approach. We find that optimisation methods separated into clear performance tiers. Building on these results, we implemented a new hybrid strategy that combines enhanced scatter search with the best-performing local solver, which showed robust performance and improved on the other scatter-search variants we tested. Our results provide practical guidance for selecting optimisation methods and thereby support more accurate and reliable model calibration.

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Scalable biophysical constraints for physiologically consistent metabolic states

Toumpe, I.; Weilandt, D. R.; Narayanan, B.; Fengos, G.; Hatzimanikatis, V.; Miskovic, L.

2026-07-09 systems biology 10.64898/2026.07.03.736321 medRxiv
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Systems biology aims to develop predictive models that connect molecular mechanisms to cellular behavior. Genome-scale metabolic models are among the most widely used frameworks for integrating stoichiometric, thermodynamic, and omics-derived information to predict feasible metabolic phenotypes. However, cellular metabolism operates on timescales governed by enzyme kinetics and by the relationship between metabolic fluxes and metabolite pool sizes. In steady-state metabolic models, this relationship can be expressed in terms of metabolite turnover rates, defined as flux-to-pool-size ratios that quantify how rapidly metabolite pools are renewed. As a result, physiologically consistent steady-state solutions should not only satisfy mass-balance and thermodynamic constraints but also exhibit turnover rates consistent with enzyme-mediated cellular dynamics. Current constraint-based approaches can admit many steady-state flux-concentration states that do not account for turnover rates, resulting in phenotypes incompatible with realistic metabolic dynamics, even when multiple types of data are imposed. Here, we present METEOR-K, an optimization framework that links steady-state metabolic fluxes to metabolite concentrations via turnover rate constraints to identify dynamically plausible flux-concentration reference states. Because these constraints reshape the feasible solution space, we also introduce turnover-rate-aware sampling strategies to efficiently explore the resulting feasible region. We applied METEOR-K to models of increasing scope and scale, including a reduced glycolysis pathway, anaerobic E. coli, and near-genome-scale ovarian cancer models. METEOR-K narrowed the admissible steady-state solution space, reduced uncertainty in feasible flux-concentration states, and improved local dynamic behavior. In nonlinear ODE simulations of bioreactor cultivation and drug-response scenarios, METEOR-K-derived states produced intracellular response times compatible with growth-supporting metabolic operation and perturbation recovery. Overall, these results establish metabolite turnover rates as scalable biophysical constraints that improve the physiological consistency of steady-state metabolic modeling. Because turnover rates encode flux-to-pool-size timescale constraints, METEOR-K moves part of physiological-consistency assessment upstream of kinetic parameterization, yielding better-suited flux-concentration reference states for kinetic modeling and dynamic prediction.

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GCBM-DCT-HV-Bio-NL-Grow-CHG-CSM-RHEC: A Unified Geometric, Biological, Causal, and Regenerative Framework for Mechanism-Aware Tissue and Connectome Modeling

Xu, T.; Hu, Z.; Sun, X.; Jin, L.; Xiong, M.

2026-06-29 bioinformatics 10.64898/2026.06.24.734320 medRxiv
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Modern biological prediction problems increasingly require models that go beyond Euclidean feature regression and local graph smoothing. Tissue, cellular, and connectome systems are nonlinear, geometry-dependent, intervention-sensitive, history-dependent, and subject to regenerative or homeostatic constraints. We propose GCBM/DCT/HV/Bio/NL/Grow/CHG/CSM/RHEC, a unified model for mechanism-aware biological prediction. The model integrates geometric connectome dynamics, differentiable charted tissue geometry, Hamiltonian latent transport, nonlinear biological kinetics, nested latent memory, continual growth without overwriting, causal hypergraph structure, causal structure modeling, and regenerative homeostatic error correction. Unlike Euclidean baselines, which treat observations as flat vectors, and local graph baselines, which use neighborhood smoothing without mechanistic structure, the proposed model represents biological states (Trapnell 2015) as coupled geometric, dynamical, causal, and regenerative objects. We evaluate the model on four synthetic toy studies, Toy A, B,C, D, designed to reflect increasing biological complexity: local Euclidean structure, nonlinear mechano-chemical interaction, causal intervention response, and out-of-distribution regenerative shift. Compared with Euclidean and local graph baselines, the full model achieves the lowest mean squared error across all four toy studies. Relative to the Euclidean baseline, the full model reduces MSE by approximately 63.0%, 89.1%, 89.0%, and 90.9% on Toy A, Toy B, Toy C, and Toy D, respectively. These results support the value of integrating geometry, mechanism, causal structure, adaptive growth, and regenerative correction into a single predictive architecture (Figure 1).

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Neural Processes with Normalizing Flows for Wheat Height Estimation

Boss, M.;Volpi, M.;Roth, L.

2026-07-09 Plant Biology 10.64898/2026.06.24.734247 medRxiv
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In this work, we investigate modeling plant traits over time using neural processes, a class of machine learning models that learn distributions over functions. Plant growth is an inherently stochastic process with complex dynamics measured mostly at irregular times throughout the growing seasons. While individual trait trajectories may be simple, their distributions are shaped by complex interactions between genotype, environment, and other factors. In particular, we focus on plant height in wheat, a deceptively simple-looking trait with complex dynamics. To model these trajectory distributions, we evaluate neural processes and in particular extensions using normalizing flows, with different combinations of genotype and environmental covariates. For controlled evaluations, we generate synthetic wheat height trajectories calibrated against Swiss weather station records and the FIP1 dataset. To fully evaluate these trajectory distributions, we use signatures, vector representations of sequential data, together with Sig-MMD and the recently introduced CSig-MMD. Sig-MMD enables direct pathwise comparison of predicted and simulator trajectory distributions, while CSig-MMD focuses this comparison on the tail, including lodged trajectories. Together, these metrics allow us to assess whether the models capture the full distribution of growth trajectories, including rare outcomes.

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A Multiscale Computational Analysis of Myometrial Excitation during Late Pregnancy

Mixon, P. R.; Vedula, V.

2026-06-27 bioengineering 10.64898/2026.06.22.733909 medRxiv
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The control of uterine activity during pregnancy is a complex process that involves regulating myometrial excitability across multiple scales. While numerous studies have investigated various regulatory mechanisms and established the contributions of ion channels and gap junctions, how these mechanisms interact to produce observed changes in uterine activity remains poorly understood. Pivotal to these efforts are computational models that effectively capture gestational changes in excitability across scales. In this study, we propose a multiscale computational modeling framework that can reproduce measured activity at the cellular and tissue scales at a given gestational stage. At the cellular level, we identify key ion currents underlying the observed electrophysiological properties based on a literature review of their regulation and a sensitivity analysis of the Tong 2011 uterine smooth muscle cell activation model. The conductances of these ion currents are then fit to reproduce characteristic resting membrane potentials and burst properties using Bayesian optimization. To extend to the tissue level, we employ an anisotropic monodomain model, parameterized by the resistivity of late pregnancy uterine muscle, to investigate electrical propagation in a two-dimensional section of uterine tissue. We then apply the multiscale model to study myometrial activation in late pregnancy and elucidate the contributions of ion channel and gap junction regulation in transitioning the uterus from a quiescent state to labor. Our resulting model successfully reproduces measured electrophysiological properties at the cellular level and characteristic single-spike and burst-propagation patterns at the tissue level across the three late-pregnant time points analyzed (days 16/17, 18/19, and 20/21) in a murine model. Furthermore, our results suggest that the regulation of the conductances of the voltage-dependent potassium current (IK1), L-type calcium current (ICaL), and sodium current (INa) is most important in determining preterm uterine excitability. The framework established here will promote the development of more gestationally relevant models to better understand labor progression and the factors involved in dysfunctional labor.

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Computational Fluid Particle Dynamics (CFPD)-Based Virtual Next Generation Impactor (vNGI) to Predict the Aerodynamic Particle Size Distribution (APSD) of Respiratory Drug Delivery Products: Toward New Approach Methodologies (NAMs) in Inhaler Performance Evaluation

Patil, A. S.; Feng, Y.

2026-06-30 bioengineering 10.64898/2026.06.29.735263 medRxiv
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The Next Generation Impactor (NGI) is one of the regulatory gold standards for characterizing aerodynamic particle size distributions (APSDs) of orally inhaled drug products (OIDPs); however, its reliance on complex, resource-intensive in vitro testing under tightly controlled environmental conditions limits experimental flexibility and introduces variability. In alignment with the growing regulatory emphasis on New Approach Methodologies (NAMs) for drug development, this study presents a rigorously validated computational fluid particle dynamics (CFPD) based virtual NGI (vNGI) as an in silico method complementary to conventional testing. The vNGI replicates a significant portion of the NGI geometry and airflow physics, enabling high-resolution spatiotemporal analysis of aerosol transport and deposition mechanisms that are otherwise inaccessible experimentally. A comprehensive verification and validation framework was implemented, including mesh and particle independence studies, turbulence model assessment, and comparison of stagewise deposition efficiencies with available in vitro data at 30 L/min. The model's capabilities were further extended to low and high flow rates, and two bio-relevant mouth-throat models and polydisperse particle laden aerosol were added. The model demonstrates strong predictive capability for a few stages and provides mechanistic insight into discrepancies in other stages, depending on the type of analysis. Importantly, this work establishes the vNGI as a fit-for-purpose according to NAM by (i) defining a clear context of use for APSD prediction and inhaler performance evaluation, (ii) capturing physically and biologically relevant air-particle interactions, and (iii) demonstrating technical robustness and reproducibility through systematic validation. The platform can potentially further enable simulation of environmental and physiological conditions, such as humidity effects, that are difficult to control experimentally, thereby improving human relevance and reducing reliance on costly and time-consuming in vitro testing. This study positions the vNGI as a scalable, regulatory aligned NAM capable of supporting early stage drug device combination product development, device optimization, and an alternative bioequivalence assessment, contributing to ongoing efforts to enhance predictive performance, reduce experimental burden, and transition toward human centric, inhalation product evaluation.

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Rt3DE-based finite element analysis of functional tricuspid regurgitation and RV free wall approximation

Tondi, D.; Vailetta, S.; Sturla, F.; Vismara, R.; Votta, E.

2026-07-14 bioengineering 10.64898/2026.07.13.736182 medRxiv
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PurposeFunctional tricuspid regurgitation (FTR) is driven by right ventricular (RV) remodeling, annular dilation, and papillary muscle dislocation. Free wall approximation (FWA) has been proposed to treat FTR by addressing RV dilation, but its effects on tricuspid valve (TV) biomechanics remain unclear. We present a real-time 3D echocardiographic (rt3DE)-based finite element framework to quantify TV biomechanics under FTR, and preliminarily apply it to assess FWA effects. MethodsSubject-specific models were developed from rt3DE data of three dilated porcine hearts in an ex-vivo mock-loop. TV geometries at end-diastole and peak systole (PS) were complemented by parametric chordae tendineae and hyperelastic tissue properties. TV closure was simulated under a standard pressure load and image-based annular motion. After tuning chordae length to replicate the PS ground truth in FTR, FWA was simulated as 30% and 60% approximations along three anatomical directions (anterior-posterior, A-P; anterior-septal, A-S; anterior-septal wall, A-SW). ResultsIn FTR simulations, median geometric errors ranged from 1.16 to 1.26 mm; median stress ranged from 56.4 to 74.7 kPa. FWA simulations predicted regurgitant orifice area (ROA) reductions by 53-99%, albeit overestimating the residual ROA vs. in vitro ground truth when starting from particularly extreme FTR conditions; concomitantly, a median stress reduction by 8-43% vs. FTR conditions was predicted. ConclusionPreliminary data suggest that our rt3DE-based framework can reliably quantify FTR-related TV biomechanics and that post-FWA biomechanics depends on initial FTR conditions. A larger cohort is required to verify the method and obtain statistically significant results.

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System Identification and Control for Optogenetics in Mammalian Nucleocytoplasmic Transport

van Laarhoven, M.; Rates, A.; Passmore, J. B.; Shi, S.; Smal, I.; Kapitein, L. C.; Smith, C. S.

2026-06-27 bioengineering 10.64898/2026.06.26.734178 medRxiv
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Optogenetics enables experiments in out-of-equilibrium conditions to clarify biological mechanisms and quantify biophysical parameters. However, modelling and control techniques to study mammalian cell biology under optogenetic perturbation remain underutilised. Here, we benchmark these methods within mammalian cells by steering nucleocytoplasmic transport via the optogenetic LEXY protein in outcome-driven microscopy. First, we employ system identification to obtain models that predict transport dynamics by minimising the prediction error. We quantify this prediction accuracy for one biophysical model and two black-box models. Second, we evaluate closed-loop control efficacy by steering transport along a predefined trajectory using model-free Proportional Integral (PI) control, model-based Linear Quadratic Regulation (LQR) and Model Predictive Control (MPC). Both the predictive models and the applied control techniques demonstrate robust performance against cell-to-cell variation. This biological variation is quantified by the parameter distributions obtained from model identification with single-cell trajectories. While we show that model-free techniques such as PI and gain-scheduled PI achieve steering without explict model knowledge, predictive architectures offer better performance under this cell-to-cell variation and time-varying setpoints. Moreover, black-box predictive accuracy suggests that this model-based control is possible, even when explicit mechanistic understanding is missing. Ultimately, we demonstrate that predictive modelling and optogenetics enable quantitative characterisation and precise manipulation of mammalian cells, while offering practical guidelines for the implementation of these techniques.

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3D Passive Cavitation Mapping (3D-PCM) with a Large-aperture Planar Array

Qiu, C.; Li, D.; Huo, H.; Mishra, A.; Li, C.; Yin, K.; Wang, N.; Chen, J.; Yao, R.; Margolin, E. J.; Lipkin, M. E.; Zhong, P.; Ni, X.; Yao, J.

2026-06-25 bioengineering 10.64898/2026.06.20.733547 medRxiv
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Urinary stone disease is a common urological condition with increasing incidence, particularly in developed countries. Laser lithotripsy (LL) has become a preferred minimally invasive treatment due to its high precision and low tissue damage. Recent studies suggest that cavitation plays a critical role in stone damage during LL, and three-dimensional passive cavitation mapping (3D-PCM) has emerged as a promising tool for detecting these events. However, clinical translation of 3D-PCM remains challenging due to limitations in imaging depth, field of view (FOV), and procedural compatibility. Here, we present a large-FOV dual-modality imaging system (3D-PCM and B-mode ultrasound) based on a large-aperture planar ultrasound array. Through array optimization and model-based reconstruction, our system achieves an expanded FOV of ~40*40mm^2 at a clinically relevant imaging depth of ~110mm, while maintaining high spatial resolution of ~0.6 mm laterally and ~0.4 mm axially. In vivo experiments in a porcine model demonstrate that the reconstructed cavitation distribution correlates well with stone damage. Our technology has the potential to provide real-time treatment feedback during LL without disrupting the standard workflow.

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Overinflation and overconcentration: why Cauchy perturbation kernels are the right choice for ABC-SMC

Sturrock, M.; Shahrezaei, V.

2026-07-09 systems biology 10.64898/2026.06.24.734205 medRxiv
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Approximate Bayesian computation sequential Monte Carlo (ABC-SMC) propagates its particles with a perturbation kernel, and with the standard Normal kernel it degrades sharply as the parameter dimension grows, a failure usually attributed to dimension itself. We show instead that it is governed by the quality of the summary statistics, with dimension entering only through a separate and milder mechanism, and that the two must act together for the Normal kernel to break. The first ingredient is covariance overinflation: the kernel covariance, estimated from the particle cloud, overshoots the true posterior covariance by a factor set by information loss in the summary statistics. We derive this overscaling factor in closed form for a Gaussian model with sufficient statistics and show that it stays modest at any dimension, shrinking toward its baseline value as the tolerance tightens; the extreme values seen in practice (of order 103) are a signature of insufficient summaries, not of dimension. The second ingredient is perturbation overconcentration: the normalised Normal step size concentrates around one as the dimension grows, so every proposal overshoots by the same factor. Either ingredient alone is harmless; only their combination breaks the Normal kernel. A Cauchy kernel (multivariate t with one degree of freedom) removes the concentration, keeping a positive acceptance rate under arbitrary overscaling at a bounded worst-case cost of 1.87x in expected squared jump distance. In a Metropolis-Hastings framework we derive closed-form acceptance rates for both kernels that illustrate the advantage of the Cauchy kernel in this limit. A series of full ABC-SMC computational experiments on five problems at d = 12, including a hierarchical gene-expression model, show the Cauchy reducing the sliced Wasserstein distance to the reference posterior by factors of up to 50 with the same simulation budget. Since the summary statistics are commonly insufficient for the models that require ABC, overinflation is structural and the Cauchy perturbation kernel is the right default for problems in higher dimensions.

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Multi-model forecasting of respiratory disease activity in Germany during the 2024-2025 season

Bracher, J.; Wolffram, D.; Amaral Lind, R.; Bardeck, N.; Boehm, M.; Contreras, S.; Doenges, P.; Guenther, F.; Kaiser, R.; van de Kassteele, J.; Kuhlmann, A.; Lange, B.; Nemcova, B.; Priesemann, V.; Reinacher, U.; Rodiah, I.; Sandmann, F.; the RESPINOW Study Group, ; Schienle, M.

2026-07-21 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.07.20.26358471 medRxiv
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Respiratory diseases cause considerable morbidity in autumn and winter and are a priority in public health monitoring. In Germany, they are subject to a number of surveillance systems, including both pathogen-specific and syndromic indicators. In this paper we present a collaborative multi-target and multi-model real-time forecasting system rolled out during the 2024/25 season, and discuss differences to earlier efforts carried out during the COVID-19 pandemic. A total of nine models were run to generate forecasts of general practitioner consultations for acute respiratory infections (ARI), hospitalizations for severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) and confirmed cases of seasonal influenza and RSV. As all indicators were subject to retrospective revisions, forecasting models were combined with a nowcasting step. Whenever multiple models were available for the same indicator, we combined them into an ensemble. Nowcasts showed convincing performance, even though for some models Christmas break effects led to an upward bias in early January. Forecasts were overall well-calibrated and most models outperformed simple benchmark models. These improvements were generally more substantial for age-stratified than pooled targets, and concentrated at lead times of two to three weeks. Anticipating the peak timing and magnitude proved to be challenging, with many models predicting too flat curves with a too early turnaround (e.g. already in late January rather than mid-February for SARI). The combined ensemble forecast was among the best-performing approaches, but unlike in previous related projects did not consistently outperform individual models. We conclude by discussing learnings on the organization of collaborative forecasting projects in post-COVID-19 times and the potential of AI-supported modelling.

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Seamless interaction in VR: decoding user intent with eye gaze and passive brain-computer interfaces

Pan, Y.; Rabe, L.; Zander, T.; Klug, M.

2026-07-10 neuroscience 10.64898/2026.07.06.736575 medRxiv
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Virtual reality (VR) interaction remains largely dependent on explicit motor input, limiting seamless and adaptive interaction. This study investigated whether electroencephalography (EEG)-based passive brain-computer interfaces (BCIs), combined with eye gaze, can decode interaction intent directly from its underlying neurophysiological correlates during dynamic VR gameplay. We operationalized interaction intent as comprising two components: affordance-related evaluation, indicating whether an attended object affords interaction, and approach-avoidance evaluation, indicating the directional tendency of interaction toward desirable or undesirable outcomes. Twenty-three participants completed a VR game with two calibration sessions and one online BCI session. Offline analyses showed above-chance decoding of the binary approach-avoidance decision classification across all actionable trials, with a grand-average accuracy of 66.28% across participants. This decoding transferred to online closed-loop gameplay, where grand-average accuracy remained above chance at 69.64%. Category-level analyses further revealed substantial variability in classification separability. For approach-avoidance-related classifications, accuracy reached 80.84% for the most distinct pairing between clearly valenced reward and punishment categories, but dropped to near chance at 59.03% for the more context-dependent pairing with ambiguous motivational valence. Affordance-related classifications between non-actionable and actionable item categories were consistently high, ranging from 77.76% to 83.50%. User Experience questionnaire results showed that, despite limitations leading to perceived loss of control and reduced ease of use, participants found the BCI-based interaction paradigm itself more fun than the controller baseline. To our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of real-time EEG decoding of interaction intent during dynamic VR gameplay, contributing toward intuitive user-adapted interfaces driven by physiological signals in immersive environments.

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A finite element model of pregnancy derived from maternal sonography: effect of uterine and cervical structural properties on cervical mechanical loading

Louwagie, E. M.; Haider, H. Z.; Duarte, C.; Shi, L.; Mourad, M.; House, M.; Feltovich, H.; Myers, K. M.

2026-06-23 bioengineering 10.64898/2026.06.22.733744 medRxiv
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Identification and treatment of pregnancies at risk for preterm birth is a central challenge in obstetric research. Many of the known causes of preterm birth originate from mechanical failure in reproductive tissues. To better understand the biomechanical environment of the gravid uterus and its potential contribution to preterm birth, this computational study presents a parametric method for modeling maternal reproductive anatomy during the early second trimester. A finite element modeling approach was built using existing sonographic measurements from early second-trimester maternal anatomy and material properties from published mechanical tests. We applied the same physiologically relevant intrauterine pressure to all models and quantified the resulting tissue stretch. The sensitivity of the stretch in the proximal cervix was explored by varying material properties and sonographic maternal anatomy dimensions. Cervical material properties, particularly the fiber stiffness modulus and ground substance Youngs modulus, were found to have the greatest effect on proximal cervix stretch compared to other material properties and sonographic dimensions. Among the sonographic dimension measurements, those defining the region surrounding the proximal cervix had the greatest effect on proximal cervix stretch, including the curvature of the posterior uterine wall and the thickness of the lower uterine segment. The computational modeling approach presented here enables future patient-specific studies of gravid reproductive tissues to elucidate differences between individuals who do and do not deliver preterm. Additionally, this study is foundational for building digital twins to support future virtual clinical studies on diagnostic and therapeutic device design to prevent preterm birth.

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XIBBIT: A biometric recognition tool for efficient Xenopus laevis identification and colony management

Tomanin, D.; Tonie, S.; Bunte, K.; Kamenz, J.

2026-07-09 developmental biology 10.64898/2026.06.30.735627 medRxiv
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The African clawed frog Xenopus laevis is a widely utilized model organism in biomedical research; however, significant challenges in experimental reproducibility and colony management remain. A major obstacle lies in the reliable identification of individual animals, since frogs are generally housed in large groups and are difficult to distinguish due to their high morphological similarity. Conventional methods, including toe clipping and microchipping, are invasive and cause distress, emphasizing the need for non-invasive methods for accurate documentation and welfare monitoring. In this study, we introduce XIBBIT (Xenopus Image-Based Biometric-pattern Identification Tool), a web-based application integrating computer vision and machine learning to identify individual Xenopus laevis based on their dorsal patterning. By exploiting these natural biometric signatures, the platform achieves reliable identification with up to 95.7% accuracy within three image captures under real life conditions. In addition to identification, XIBBIT provides a centralized colony management system. It archives individual data, including health records and experimental histories, with customizable fields. To demonstrate XIBBITs capabilities, we used the application to track egg quality across repeated egg-laying events, revealing that egg quality is a repeatable, individual-specific trait in Xenopus laevis. Furthermore, we find seasonal effects on egg laying performance with the lowest performance during late-spring and summer months. Ultimately, XIBBIT provides an effective, time-efficient, and non-invasive solution to the problem of individual Xenopus laevis identification, facilitating both experimental reproducibility and high animal welfare standards.

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golgi: open-source software for automated nerve model generation and recruitment simulation

Lung, D.; Jia, Y.; Moro, A.; Fachino, M.; Haberbusch, M.

2026-07-13 bioengineering 10.64898/2026.07.10.737846 medRxiv
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golgi is an open-source platform that takes a peripheral nerve from image to stimulated fiber population through a single graphical interface, with an equivalent scriptable Python API and command-line interface for batch and high-performance use. It integrates promptable image segmentation, automated multi-region tetrahedral meshing, anisotropic finite-element solution of the extracellular field with an explicit perineurium contact impedance, generation of realistic fiber populations and their three-dimensional trajectories, and biophysical activation thresholds through interchangeable backends-- NEURON (via PyFibers) and a GPU-accelerated surrogate (AxonML). Every study exports as an integrity-hashed bundle whose image-to-recruitment provenance is verifiable byte-for-byte. golgi lowers the barrier to in-silico peripheral nerve stimulation modeling for experimentalists and clinicians, using a fully open finite-element stack with no commercial dependencies.

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Calibration standards and sensitivity limits for fluorescence measurements with the Chi.Bio open-source bioreactor platform

Sambruna, A.; Tallarico, G.; Cosentino Lagomarsino, M.

2026-07-09 systems biology 10.64898/2026.06.29.735387 medRxiv
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Automated platforms such as Chi.Bio enable simultaneous monitoring of optical density and fluorescent reporter expression in 20 ml reactor cultures with controllable pump systems. As such, they provide an appealing option for contemporary gene expression quantification, quantitative physiology, and laboratory evolution and ecology experiments. While optical density calibration for this device is well established, no equivalent calibration framework exists for fluorescence, making quantitative comparison with reference instruments unreliable. Here, we characterize Chi.Bio fluorescence capabilities using fluorescent calibration microspheres and fixed GFP-expressing S. cerevisiae and E. coli cells, compared with orthogonal plate-reader measurements. We show that microsphere fluorescence is detectable and scales linearly with concentration, whereas the GFP signal from both species falls below the device detection limit. Comparison of background-correction strategies indicates that direct subtraction of a non-fluorescent control measured within the same device yields more reliable fluorescence estimates than the commonly used on-line normalization method. Knowledge of these sensitivity boundaries of the device provides practical guidelines for experimental design of future studies.