IFAC-PapersOnLine

Asymptotic standard errors for the parameters of a nonlinear mixed-effects model fitted by first-order conditional estimation (FOCE) or FOCE with interaction (FOCEI) require the observed (Fisher) information -- the negative second derivative of the population objective at the optimum. The gradient of this objective can be computed exactly from sensitivity equations, but the observed information is conventionally still formed by finite differencing, which is less accurate and step-size dependent. Our objectives are to (i) derive the FOCE and FOCEI observed information in closed form within the same sensitivity-equation framework, and (ii) quantify the precision this recovers. Writing the objective as a data term plus the log-determinant of the first-order inner Hessian, the population Hessian splits so that the data term reuses the second-order sensitivities already needed for the gradient, whereas the log-determinant term requires third-order sensitivity equations -- confining the third-order dependence to a single term, where it enters in exactly two places. A finite-difference error analysis shows the differenced Hessian attains an accuracy no better than the square root of the objectives evaluation accuracy, whereas the analytic form is limited only by the sensitivity and differential-equation solutions, with no step size to tune. We illustrate this on a one-compartment oral model with first-order absorption fitted to warfarin data, where the differenced standard error is usable only over a narrow band of step sizes while the analytic value carries none. Implemented in the open-source R package nlmixr2, the method makes exact, reproducible standard errors routine, supporting more dependable confidence intervals, identifiability assessment, and uncertainty propagation.

Mechanistic ordinary differential equation models are widely used in systems biology to represent biochemical networks, population dynamics, cell-state transitions, and other biological processes; however, their predictive value depends critically on accurate parameter estimation from noisy and often sparse experimental data. In this tutorial, we present the Weak-form Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamics (WENDy) method as a forward-solver-free approach that reformulates parameter estimation as a covariance-corrected weak-form regression problem by integrating the model equations against compactly supported test functions. We present the background on the methodology through the lens of the familiar logistic equation, and we demonstrate applications of the method on real experimental data through two systems biology examples: a glycolytic oscillator with relatively dense time-course data and a sparse epithelial-mesenchymal cellstate transition model with multiple experimental replicates. Ultimately, using WENDy, we estimate interpretable biological parameters with uncertainty for systems with noisy and sometimes sparse available experimental data.

Accurate modeling of laryngeal motor control is key to understanding typical and disordered voice production. However, traditional biomechanical plant models based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) often involve high computational costs and numerical instabilities, limiting their use in real-time closed-loop control frameworks. This study evaluates feature-driven machine learning (ML) regressors, specifically Random Forest (RF), Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks (NN), and Polynomial Regression (PR), as surrogate forward models mapping laryngeal motor inputs to fundamental frequency and sound pressure level. Training data were generated with two biomechanical vocal fold models: the extended body-cover and the triangular body-cover. Results demonstrate that ML surrogates reduce execution times from seconds to milliseconds (e.g., 2 ms for PR), enabling stable real-time tracking via inverse Jacobian control. While RF provides the highest accuracy, NN and PR offer smoother control signals and smaller memory footprints. A practical performance threshold was identified near N = 1,000 training samples, below which accuracy degraded substantially when models were trained from scratch. These findings support ML surrogates as efficient and adaptable alternatives to direct numerical simulation, providing a foundation for future subject-specific modeling through transfer learning in data-limited clinical scenarios.

The dynamics of gene regulatory networks are governed by intrinsic noise, stemming from the random nature of biochemical reactions, and by extrinsic noise, arising from fluctuations in cellular components and environmental conditions. Together, these sources can compromise the reliability of predictive computational models if not properly accounted for, and capturing both effects within a single framework remains a non-trivial task in computational biology. In this work, we propose an uncertainty quantification framework that addresses these two contributions jointly: intrinsic stochasticity is described through a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE) for the protein probability density function, whereas extrinsic noise is represented as parametric uncertainty in the kinetic parameters. The propagation of the uncertainty is carried out via an intrusive polynomial chaos expansion (PCE), in which the PCE coefficients are obtained from a stochastic Galerkin projection of the PIDE, yielding a coupled deterministic system that is solved with standard numerical methods. We illustrate the approach on a positive autoregulatory gene network with one and two uncertain kinetic parameters. The proposed approach accurately reproduces the mean, variance, and full protein probability density function, including the bimodal distributions, at a substantially lower computational cost.

Muscle regeneration relies on the coordinated activation of muscle stem cells, whose fate decisions are regulated by intracellular gene expression dynamics and intercellular coupling via the Notch-Dll1 signaling pathway. Central components of this regulatory network include the transcriptional repressor Hes1, its target gene Dll1, and the myogenic regulator MyoD. Experimental and theoretical studies have shown that proliferating muscle stem cells exhibit oscillatory dynamics of these molecules, whereas sustained expression is associated with differentiation. Here, we investigate the dynamics of a previously established delay differential equation model of two coupled muscle stem cells. Using linear stability analysis, we systematically characterize how model parameters affect the transition between stable and unstable steady states. In addition, numerical bifurcation analysis is employed to study the influence of intercellular coupling strength and delay on the system dynamics. Our analysis shows that continuous variation of the coupling delay induces repetitive changes in the stability of the steady state. However, this sensitivity towards the coupling delay is confined to a narrow region of parameter space and therefore requires a fine tuning of all other parameters. Beside the identification of parameter sets for in-phase and out-of-phase oscillations, we demonstrate the possibility of coexisting stable in-phase and out-of-phase oscillations, a dynamical feature that has not been reported previously. While oscillation periods are largely determined by intracellular regulatory mechanisms, oscillation amplitudes can be strongly modulated by intercellular coupling. These results provide new insight into how the intracellular network and intercellular communication interact to generate different collective dynamics.

The suspension culture of pluripotent stem (PS) cells in stirred bioreactors poses a delicate balance between maintaining homogeneous cell dispersion and avoiding excessive shear stress that can compromise cell viability and pluripotency. In this study, we used computational fluid dynamics (CFD) coupled with a discrete particle method (DPM) to simulate iPS cell behavior in a 5 mL delta-impeller stirred tank. Our analysis revealed that upward flow at the tank bottom and downward flow at the top are critical for maintaining a stable suspension. To optimize the stirring protocol, we applied Bayesian optimization to identify a time-dependent stirring schedule that begins with a high-speed phase for resuspension, followed by a low-speed phase for sustained suspension with minimal hydrodynamic stress. The optimized schedule demonstrated improved suspension ratio and reduced slip velocity, indicating lower mechanical stress on cells. These findings provide engineering insights into scalable bioreactor operation, contributing to the design of robust iPS cell manufacturing systems.

Pulsatile milk transport through the lactating mammary ductal tree involves complex interactions between pressure gradients, wall compliance, and non-Newtonian rheology across spatial scales that span nearly two orders of magnitude in lumen radius. Direct experimental characterisation of flow in distal ductal generations remains infeasible due to their sub-millimetre calibre, leaving the haemodynamic environment of the secretory ductules largely unknown. We present a two-stage physicsinformed operator-learning framework that extends validated flow predictions from three instrumented duct generations to twenty generations of a bifurcated mammary network. A Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) trained against particle image velocimetry measurements across seven ducts achieved R2 = 0.924-0.997. A Deep Operator Network (DeepONet) distilled from the PINN and refined through physics-constrained training on the governing one-dimensional fluid-structure interaction equations achieved R2(u) = 0.857-0.985 across all validated ducts, with predictions for Generations 4-20 obtained by supplying Murrays Law geometry and mass-conservation-scaled boundary conditions to the frozen operator. Three biophysically significant findings emerge: a mean velocity plateau of 0.14-0.18 m/s across Generations 4-13 produced by Cross shear-thinning compensation offsetting Murray-branching deceleration; a non-monotonic pulsatility index that declines from 0.048 at Generation 1 to a minimum of 0.039 at Generation 5 before rising monotonically to 1.37 at Generation 20 as progressive wall stiffening drives the most distal ductules into a microcirculation-like haemodynamic regime; and a brief elastic-recoil transition zone at Generations 4-5 where mean axial pressure drop reverses sign. To the authors knowledge, these results provide the first quantitative characterisation of pulsatile milk flow across the full hierarchy of a bifurcated mammary ductal tree using a physics-informed operator-learning framework with implications for ductal mechanobiology, milk ejection mechanics, and mastitis pathogenesis.

Computational analysis of physiological and biomedical systems necessitate efficient geometry representations for high fidelity model predictions, including patient or device specificity. Particle-based Lagrangian computational approaches comprise a valuable approach to gain insights from quantitative velocity and pressure data from computational models. Examples include particle dynamics and transport in human vasculature for diseases such as stroke, thrombosis, and embolisms; and modern targeted drug delivery systems in the vascular network and respiratory airways. However, current particle simulation approaches can bear significant computational expense that scales with both number of particles and background fluid mesh resolution. A significant determinant of this computational expense is the contact resolution between particles and anatomically realistic vessel wall. Here, we develop an efficient particle dynamics model that leverages an implicit representation of real anatomical features using a signed distance field to efficiently resolve particle-wall contact. We outline the underlying algorithmic details, followed by a systematic illustration of performance and accuracy using simplified and analytically defined geometries and flow fields. Subsequently, we present a representative simulation of embolic particles along a human vascular segment where we compare our distance field-based approach against classical wall-contact checks based on assessing particle boundary intersection with triangulated surface mesh. Our approach transforms the underlying Lagrangian contact detection operation into an equivalent Eulerian operation, significantly speeding up bulk particle dynamics computations without significantly impacting accuracy or geometric fidelity.

One goal of Scientific Machine Learning (SciML) is to advance traditional scientific computing frameworks with modern machine learning tools. This includes extending established methods, such as the finite element method, with cardiac function applications due to their complexity and need for very rapid execution times for real time clinical use. In this work, we present an advanced form of the Neural Network Finite Element (NNFE) method specialized for cardiac simulations, termed CARDIAX-NNFE. The NNFE method learns the parameter-to-displacement field map by training over the residual of the hyperelastic material PDE, using the domain represented by finite elements. The implementation is developed in Python using JAX to leverage its automatic differentiation, highly parallel GPU, and JIT-compilation capabilities. To demonstrate CARDIAX-NNFE effectiveness, we trained full cardiac pressure-volume responses using a simplified heart model, spanning the entire cardiac physiological functional range. Results indicated the ability to simulate a family of pressure-volume solutions with average nodal positional error of 0.023 mm and maximal error of 0.054 mm, with a single complete PV loop evaluated in 0.002 seconds. The CARDIAX-NNFE software platform thus provides for a robust platform for cardiac functional simulations. Moreover, it provides the structure for residual-based SciML methods, which can apply to a variety of physics-based biomedical problems that require high execution speed for clinical applications.

Surface electromyography (sEMG) is the most practical non-invasive interface for myoelectric prostheses, exoskeletons, and rehabilitation systems, but power-line interference (PLI) contamination and excessive digital pipeline group delay still limit its clinical adoption. This paper proposes a co-designed analog-digital correction system combining a high-CMRR front-end with an exponentially-windowed RMS (EMRMS) envelope estimator and a recursive single-tone PLI canceller. We present a closed-form CMRR model capturing the electrode-skin imbalance, and provide a complete stability analysis of the LMS canceller. The EMRMS estimator reduces the computational overhead from[O] (L) to strictly[O] (1) in both time and space complexities. Featuring no data-dependent branching, the algorithm achieves deterministic algorithmic execution time (zero jitter under an RTOS environment) and is natively compatible with fixed-point arithmetic on microcontrollers lacking a hardware Floating-Point Unit (FPU). A reference implementation reaches an 8.2 {micro}s median per-sample latency, yielding an end-to-end delay of[~] 30 ms -- leaving a generous >90 ms budget for electromechanical actuation -- while requiring an active CPU duty cycle of merely 1.6%, enabling prolonged deep-sleep intervals. Validation on the public Ninapro DB2 dataset demonstrates a 13.9 dB mean SNR improvement (averaged across 12 channels; single-channel comparison: 9.7 dB, Table 3) and a 70.0 {micro}V envelope RMSE against a length-200 rectangular reference. Paired Wilcoxon signed-rank tests confirm statistical significance (p < 0.001) over static baselines, and Pearson correlation analysis ({rho} = 0.993 {+/-} 0.0002) confirms strict morphological fidelity. The full open-source codebase and benchmarks are publicly released. O_TBL View this table: org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@299dc5org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@3519a0org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@2586aborg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1ac5610org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1465c46_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_TBL O_FLOATNOTable 3:C_FLOATNO O_TABLECAPTIONQuantitative comparison on a common 60 s segment of Ninapro-like synthetic sEMG (single channel) with a 3 mV 50.3 Hz mains tone slightly drifted from the static notchs design centre at 50.0 Hz, stress-testing the adaptive corrector under a frequency mismatch. The Ninapro multi-channel aggregate (13.9 dB) reported in Section 3.4 uses mains exactly at 50 Hz (matched notch) and so achieves a higher {Delta} SNR. "MAC/sample" excludes the EMRMS square root and the pre-computed LMS sine/cosine. C_TABLECAPTION C_TBL

Dynamic Flux Balance Analysis (DFBA) enables simulation of microbial culture dynamics under changing environmental conditions, but remains computationally expensive for tasks such as parameter calibration and fermentation optimization when applied using genome-scale metabolic models (GEMs). To address this challenge, we introduce Dynamic Flux Vector Balancing (DFVB), a reformulation of DFBA that solves an equivalent problem using a pre-computed, sparse basis of flux solutions that reduces the dimensionality of the internal optimization problem without information loss. Notably, DFVB provides a compact, interpretable representation of flux states that can readily identify dynamically inactive pathways and enable simulation-based automatic metabolic network reduction. We showed that DFVB produces the same culture dynamics as DFBA across multiple model scales and conditions, and identifies inactive reactions more accurately than Flux Variability Analysis (FVA) when compared to transcriptomic data profiles. Furthermore, computational performance analyses demonstrated that integrating DFVB with solver warm-start strategies and model reduction enhances computational efficiency relative to DFBA, yielding up to 3-fold reductions in simulation time for large-scale metabolic models. Finally, kinetic parameter estimation of culture dynamics with DFVB in two fermentation scenarios using a large-scale yeast GEM reached equal or higher prediction fidelity and narrower confidence intervals than DFBA, indicating improved parameter identifiability and robustness. Together, these results position DFVB as a scalable, robust, and biologically coherent framework for dynamic metabolic modeling, easing the integration of GEMs for culture dynamics simulation.

Biochemical Systems Theory (BST) represents nonlinear biochemical rate laws by local power-law approximations in logarithmic concentration coordinates. First-order coefficients are elasticities, whereas higher-order derivatives describe local log-synergism and its variation. Ordinary higher derivatives, however, are not tensorial under nonlinear reparameterizations and can mix biochemical response structure with coordinate artifacts. We formulate a covariant hierarchy, cBST1-cBST3, on a positive operating-point space equipped with a declared reference connection. cBST1 recovers classical elasticities in a flat logarithmic chart, cBST2 is the covariant Hessian of the log-response, and cBST3 is the symmetrized covariant derivative of cBST2. The framework is quantitatively evaluated using three representative rate laws from the curated yeast glycolysis model BIOMD0000000064: glucose transport, glucose phosphorylation, and phosphofructokinase. For 10,000 finite log-concentration perturbations at each of five radii, cBST2 reduced the cBST1 log-rate root-mean-square error by 96.6-98.6% at the largest tested radius, and cBST3 provided a further 68.4-98.1% reduction. The contracted cBST2 and cBST3 terms strongly predicted the corresponding lower-order truncation errors. Under the nonlinear transformation qi = sinh(ui), covariant contractions agreed across coordinates to within a 95th-percentile relative error of 1.2 x 10-13, whereas ordinary higher derivatives showed order-unity coordinate mismatches. Supplementary analytic tests recovered the expected second-, third-, and fourth-order truncation-error scaling. These results show that cBST1-cBST3 are not only coordinate-consistent descriptors but also practical diagnostics of where local power-law approximations require higher-order correction.

Gas production and consumption is a direct consequence of microbial activity in environmental and industrial settings. In closed batch cultivations, headspace pressure changes therefore give valuable insights into the microbial metabolism. For laboratory scale anaerobic batch cultivations, manual manometer measurements are routinely applied, as a simple and robust method, but it is labour intensive, causes disturbances in the headspace gas and temperature, leading to suboptimal growth, inhibition and noisy data. We built and tested an automated online pressure sensor for closed batch cultivations. It is designed for microbial cultivation and integrates with sterile and anaerobic cultivation workflows. The system uses an absolute pressure sensor (0-30 bar) mounted on a custom designed PCB, with a gas-tight needle mount. An ESP32 microcontroller logs pressure and temperature locally and generates a Wi-Fi access point for real-time visualization and direct CSV download through a local homepage. We detail hardware and software design decisions, assembly, and validation including long-term stability. Case studies demonstrate the applicability for: a multiphasic biogas kinetics during anaerobic digestion, capturing gas uptake dynamics and metabolic shifts during syngas fermentations and co-feeding experiments, and long-term robustness in a multi-year monitoring of a compressed-air system. More than 130 individual sensors have been deployed over 3 years in laboratories, at various academic and industrial settings. The platform provides reproducible, high-resolution pressure measurements that enable calculation of gas formation/consumption rates and improve experimental throughput without disturbing cultures. Design files, firmware, and example analysis scripts are openly available to support adoption and further development.

Recent models describe drug release from polymeric nanoparticles through an analogy with the quantum tunneling effect, treating the delivery system as a static rectangular potential barrier. In this work, we argue that this analogy is structurally identical to the standard solution of the Schrodinger equation for a rectangular barrier, and that the introduction of a multifractal formalism to describe time evolution -- obtained via a formal Wick rotation (x [-&gt;] t) -- lacks direct physical justification. We propose, instead, to treat the barrier height as an effective function of time, Ueff(t) = U0 f(t), with f(t) varying slowly within the barrier region, reflecting the progressive degradation/swelling of the polymeric matrix, under two hypotheses for f(t)-- exponential decay and rational decay (Hill-type). Rather than the thick-barrier WKB approximation, the exact transmission formula is used throughout, which is real-analytic in f(t) and continues smoothly into the resonance (over-barrier) regime once the barrier collapses, avoiding the artificial step-like transitions produced by the WKB approximation used in earlier drafts of this work. Both hypotheses for f(t) predict a finite barrier collapse time, t*, whose dependence on the energy ratio m = U0/E differs qualitatively between them (t* {propto}ln m vs. t* {propto}(m-1)1/n), offering a distinguishable criterion from experimental release data. The model was tested against ex-vivo chicken-skin permeation kinetics of 5-FU digitized from Rata et al. [1] (three systems: NCA-1-5-FU, G-NCA-1-5-FU, G-5-FU). The exact formula substantially improved fit quality relative to the WKB approximation for all three systems. Fits were obtained by global optimization (differential evolution, polished with scipy.optimize.curve_fit for covariance estimates) rather than a single local search, which proved necessary: for G-5-FU and NCA-1-5-FU, the exponential family is well-identified (all parameter uncertainties below 11% and 6% of the estimates, respectively; R2 > 0.999), while the rational (Hill) family remained poorly identified for all three systems despite the improved formula - favoring, by parsimony, the simpler exponential model throughout. Only G-NCA-1-5-FU remained non-identified with m free. A sensitivity check fixing m at the G-5-FU-derived value (m = 1.377) resolves this non-identifiability for G-NCA-1-5-FU at negligible cost in fit quality, consistent with a shared energy ratio for that system; the same constraint applied to NCA-1-5-FU, however, degrades its (already well-identified) fit by a factor of [~]4 in maximum residual; its own energy ratio (m = 1.188 {+/-} 0.007) differs from the shared value by [~]4{sigma}, a formally significant difference, so a single universal m is rejected for the complete set of systems studied. Reference values from the original multifractal study [2-4] and candidate extensions to further aptamer-functionalized nanocarrier systems [5-7] are also discussed. We discuss the implications of this treatment and its limits of validity, and point out paths for further empirical validation.

The photosynthesis-transpiration-stomatal conductance (An-E-gs) model framework is widely used for estimating photosynthesis, transpiration, and stomatal conductance in plants. The model equations are solved by numerical iteration, and the converged model values are deemed the solution. However, there has been no general guarantee that the iterative procedure converges to a solution or that the procedure leads to convergence. Building on the recent proof of the existence of a unique set of solutions, we herewith propose a numerical algorithm that is guaranteed to converge to the solution for the An-E-gs model framework. We first analytically prove that the proposed algorithm necessarily converges to a solution. We then demonstrate the convergence across contrasting combinations of leaf temperature, relative humidity, light, atmospheric CO2, and wind speed. We further demonstrate rapid convergence with the algorithm: no more than ca. 10 iterations for approximately 10-3 mol CO2 m-2 s-1 precision in net photosynthesis and no more than ca. 20 iterations for 10-7 mol CO2 m-2 s-1 precision. By guaranteeing convergence to the solution, this algorithm eliminates concerns about nonconvergence in leaf gas-exchange calculations and is expected to serve as a robust foundation for a range of studies from leaf-level gas exchange to global-scale carbon and water cycle dynamics.

Immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) therapy has revolutionized cancer treatment, though it is still effective in only about 20-40% of patients. To increase the efficacy of ICB therapy, combinations of ICB antibodies such as anti-PD1 and anticoagulants (e.g., thrombin inhibitors) have been studied in preclinical mouse models and clinical trials. We developed a Bliss-type analysis to quantify the synergy between anti-PD1 and dabigatran etexilate using published tumor growth data from a mouse model. We then developed a minimal mechanistic computational model to quantitatively study the synergy between anti-PD1 and the thrombin inhibitor dabigatran etexilate in a published study (Metelli et al.) of a preclinical mouse model of colon cancer. Our model included tumor cells, CD8+ T cells, and the pleiotropic cytokine TGF{beta}, whose production in platelets is influenced by thrombin, and described a potential mechanism of interplay among these components in the tumor microenvironment. We performed nonlinear mixed-effects modeling to capture mouse-to-mouse variation in tumor growth under different treatment conditions. The estimated parameter values pointed to several underlying mechanisms of synergy, including increased expansion of CD8+ T cells in the tumor microenvironment in the presence of anti-PD1 and dabigatran etexilate. These predictions can be further validated in future experiments. Thus, the combination of longitudinal tumor growth data, mechanistic population dynamics modeling, and nonlinear mixed-effects modeling can be used to study synergy between ICB and other drugs in controlling tumor growth.

Constitutive models of myocardial mechanics form a cornerstone of personalized cardiac simulations and cardiac digital twins. Researchers traditionally prescribe these models a priori and calibrate them from ex vivo tissue experiments, even though tissue excision alters loading conditions, removes residual stresses, and eliminates important physiological interactions. Multimodal cardiac MRI now provides subject-specific ventricular geometry, deformation, and myocardial microstructure, yet current inverse approaches still rely on predefined constitutive laws. Here we present the first framework to discover constitutive models of passive myocardial mechanics directly from in vivo cardiac imaging data by embedding a constitutive artificial neural network within a nonlinear finite element model of ventricular filling. Using multimodal cardiac MRI that combines ventricular geometry, deformation, and microstructure from a representative healthy individual, the framework identifies sparse, mechanically admissible strain-energy functions without prescribing their form a priori. The best-performing model contains only two fiber- and two sheet-invariant terms, achieves a mean displacement error of 1.62 mm, and reduces the error of the widely used Guccione and Holzapfel models by 34.14% and 26.01%. The discovered models indicate that fiber- and sheet-related anisotropic mechanisms dominate the passive mechanical response during physiological ventricular filling. More broadly, this work establishes a non-invasive strategy for subject-specific constitutive discovery from cardiac imaging data and lays the foundation for personalized cardiac simulations and cardiac digital twins.

Dynamic models are central to the computational life sciences but typically contain unknown parameters that must be inferred from experimental data. High-throughput measurements have made this task increasingly challenging, yielding high-dimensional search spaces and non-convex objectives with many local optima. This makes the choice of optimisation method critical. However, existing empirical studies either consider only a limited number of benchmark problems or only a narrow spectrum of local, global and hybrid optimisation methods. Here, we present a comprehensive benchmark of a broad range of optimisation methods on a curated collection of parameter estimation problems, comprising 990 method-problem-pairs executed on two independent supercomputing infrastructures. Our evaluation quantifies success rates, solution quality and computational cost, revealing characteristic strengths and limitations of each approach. We find that optimisation methods separated into clear performance tiers. Building on these results, we implemented a new hybrid strategy that combines enhanced scatter search with the best-performing local solver, which showed robust performance and improved on the other scatter-search variants we tested. Our results provide practical guidance for selecting optimisation methods and thereby support more accurate and reliable model calibration.

Analytical technologies that can provide quick, precise, and continuous information regarding process performance are necessary for the development of biopharmaceutical manufacturing. Conventional bioprocess monitoring is largely dependent on laboratory-based data and offline sampling, which can restrict process management and cause delays in decision-making. This study develops a machine learning-enabled Raman spectroscopy framework for Process Analytical Technology (PAT) and Real-Time Release Testing (RTRT) applications in bioprocess manufacturing. Five predictive modeling techniques--Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Neural Networks--were used to analyze Raman spectral data from an Escherichia coli fermentation dataset. The models were assessed using the coefficient of determination (R{superscript 2}), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) to predict two crucial fermentation parameters: the concentrations of glucose and acetate. The superior performance of PLS regression for glucose prediction and the improved prediction accuracy of XGBoost for acetate concentration demonstrated the importance of selecting modeling techniques based on biological complexity. Explainable artificial intelligence using SHAP analysis was incorporated to improve model transparency by identifying Raman spectral regions contributing to predictions. The suggested architecture shows how Raman spectroscopy and machine learning can be combined to assist automated process monitoring, enhance process comprehension, and hasten the implementation of real-time quality judgments in next-generation biomanufacturing. Graphical Abstract O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=114 SRC="FIGDIR/small/740653v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (51K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@6a460aorg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@11c68e5org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@2acf7aorg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@9b890a_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG Overall workflow of the Raman spectroscopy-based machine learning framework for PAT and RTRT implementation. Raman spectra collected from E. coli fermentation were preprocessed and analyzed using multiple machine learning algorithms for the prediction of glucose and acetate concentrations. Model performance evaluation and SHAP-based explainable AI analysis enabled the identification of important spectral features for real-time bioprocess monitoring. HighlightsO_LIDeveloped a Raman spectroscopy-based machine learning framework for real-time monitoring of critical bioprocess parameters. C_LIO_LICompared traditional chemometric modeling (PLS regression) with advanced machine learning approaches, including SVR, Random Forest, XGBoost, and neural networks. C_LIO_LIShowed that the biochemical target affects the models performance, with XGBoost improving acetate prediction and PLS offering better glucose prediction. C_LIO_LIIntegrated explainable artificial intelligence to identify Raman spectral regions contributing to bioprocess predictions. C_LIO_LIEstablished a pathway toward interpretable Raman-based Process Analytical Technology (PAT) and Real-Time Release Testing (RTRT) implementation. C_LI

Planning husbandry tasks and experiments with Drosophila melanogaster requires converting a target date into development times that depend on the rearing temperature. This calculation needs to be done for each cross, genotype, and temperature, and the risk of error grows quickly. Available laboratory management tools let users register stocks, crosses, and track them, but they do not create schedules based on a clear, adjustable thermal model. To fill that gap, we developed DrosoTracker, a self-contained web application that works offline and predicts Drosophila development with a thermal summation model recalibrated through regression on data from Powsner (1935) (T0 = 11.78 {degrees}C, DD = 116.38 {degrees}C{middle dot}days, R{superscript 2} = 0.997). The model offers an optional two-level calibration driven by user observations. A wild-type strain first adjusts the model to the laboratorys own conditions. Then each genotype is calibrated against that reference using a random-effects shrinkage estimator that accounts for measurement error and between-batch variability. The model creates schedules for husbandry tasks, evaluates adult cohort survival with the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the log-rank test, and calculates sample size for lifespan studies using Schoenfelds formula. The quantitative components were checked against independent references, including Rs survival package and manual calculations. Ongoing work is focused on validating the calibrated model using cohorts specifically bred for this purpose. DrosoTracker runs entirely in the browser, stores data locally, and is available in English and Spanish.