Mathematical Modeling of the Canonical Aryl Hydrocarbon Receptor Pathway

The aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) is a ligand-activated transcription factor involved in xenobiotic sensing, as well as development, immunity, and tissue homeostasis. AhR signaling can proceed through a canonical and non-canonical pathway; the present study focuses on the canonical pathway. While ligand-dependent differences in binding affinities and direct ligand degradation kinetics are well known, and subtle differences in ligand binding can shape downstream signaling, it is still unclear which biochemical reaction steps within the canonical pathway are responsible for distinct ligand-specific transcriptional responses. Here, we developed a mechanistic ordinary differential equation model of the canonical AhR pathway. We calibrated the model to time-resolved qPCR measurements of Cyp1a1 and Ahrr mRNA in mouse bone-marrow-derived macrophages exposed to structurally diverse, environmentally relevant ligands with known immunomodulatory activity (3-methylcholanthrene, indolo[3,2-b]carbazole, and bisphenol A) using global optimization under a heteroskedastic likelihood. To dissect ligand specificity, we evaluated 528 candidate models that allow one or two ligand-involving reaction rate constants to vary. Akaike-based model selection reveals a dominant dynamical regime governed by promoter occupancy and target-gene mRNA synthesis, indicating that ligand-specific transcriptional responses are primarily encoded at the level of transcriptional regulation rather than upstream signaling events. The resulting model is made available in SBML and PEtab formats for reproducibility, and to enable further research into whether ligand-specific effects are conserved or rewired across cell types.