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Viruses

MDPI AG

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Viruses's content profile, based on 332 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.20% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Influenza A virus H5N1 genotypes B3.13 and D1.1 show temperature-dependent restriction of replication in primary human respiratory epithelial cell cultures derived from the upper and lower respiratory tract.

Werner, A. P.; Sachithanandham, J.; Akin, E.; Talukdar, S.; Pinsley, M.; Pekosz, A.

2026-08-29 microbiology 10.64898/2026.08.27.747488 medRxiv
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H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza A viruses pose a significant threat to wild animal populations, domesticated animals, and potentially, the human population. For H5N1s to infect and transmit among mammalian species, mutations for improved utilization of mammalian receptors and enhanced replication at the lower temperatures of the upper respiratory tract need to be acquired. A human H1N1pdm09-like virus was compared to H5N1 genotypes B3.13 and D1.1 for replication at 33{o}C, 37{o}C, and 39{o}C - temperatures consistent with the upper and lower respiratory tract in humans, and dairy cow udder tissue. All H5N1 viruses had increased plaque sizes on MDCK cells at 37{o}C and 39{o}C compared to H1N1pdm09. In primary, differentiated human nasal and bronchial epithelial cultures, all H5N1 viruses show restricted infectious virus production compared to H1N1 at 33{o}C. While H5N1 D1.1 also showed restricted replication at 37{o}C and 39{o}C, the H5N1 B3.13 replicated to nearly equivalent titers as H1N1pdm09. All H5N1 viruses demonstrated similar cell tropism in cells from the upper and lower respiratory tract, infecting more ciliated than non-ciliated cells relative to H1N1pdm09. H1N1, H5N1 B3.13 D1.1 infection induced similar innate immune factors, with nasal epithelial cells producing higher levels compared to bronchial epithelial cells. These data suggest that genotype B3.13 and D1.1 H5N1 viruses show different temperature dependent replication patterns compared to H1N1pdm09.

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Evaluating the roles of weather and bird dynamics in accurately forecasting West Nile virus infection in mosquitoes and humans

Oshinubi, K.; Covington, J.; Busser, N.; Townsend, J.; Will, J.; Ruberto, I.; Kretschmer, M.; Chen, Y.; Doerry, E.; Hepp, C. M.; Mihaljevic, J. R.

2026-08-31 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361564 medRxiv
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Mosquito-borne diseases pose a growing public health challenge as climate change reshapes vector population dynamics. West Nile virus (WNV), transmitted between birds and Culex mosquitoes, disproportionately affects Maricopa County, Arizona, one of the nation's highest-burden counties, yet whether models that include weather and avian dynamics improve forecast accuracy remains unclear. Using a 15-year weekly time series of mosquito abundance, mosquito infection prevalence, and human cases, we developed four mechanistic model configurations of varying complexity, from mosquito-human dynamics alone to full models incorporating avian dynamics and weather forcing. We fitted each model to the weekly-observed data, generated probabilistic 1- and 2-week-ahead forecast horizons, and evaluated forecasts against a historical baseline. All configurations fit the data equally regardless of weather or avian dynamics. However, models incorporating both birds and weather created more accurate forecasts of mosquito abundance and mosquito infection prevalence, and all configurations outperformed the baseline for forecasting human cases. Forecast accuracy was highest in summer and fall, and ensemble aggregation sometimes outperformed every individual model, stabilizing predictions across the 15-year record. These findings indicate that avian and weather dynamics are most critical for predicting mosquito-specific data, positioning this framework as a scalable tool for public health planning for WNV surveillance under climate change.

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Types, Subtypes and Positivity Rates of Seasonal Influenza in Uganda, 2019-2023

Nankya, M. A.; Owor, N.; Kayiwa, J. T.; Lutwama, J. J.; Gidudu, S.; Bahizi, G.; Ario, A. R.

2026-09-01 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.08.29.26361662 medRxiv
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Background: Seasonal influenza, commonly known as flu, is an acute respiratory, highly contagious illness caused by influenza viruses. A clear understanding of influenza seasonality is crucial for guiding prevention and treatment strategies, including decisions on vaccination timing to prevent outbreaks. While well documented in temperate regions, data on influenza epidemiology in tropical areas, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, remain limited. We described the types, subtypes and positivity rate of seasonal influenza in Uganda during 2019-2023. Methods: We abstracted data from the National Influenza database on positive seasonal influenza cases confirmed by Polymerase Chain Reaction. The cases were disaggregated by age group, sex, region, month and year of reporting. Using Microsoft excel, we calculated the influenza positivity rate and disaggregated it by strain, sex, age, region and time. Test positivity rate was computed as the number of positive cases as a percentage of the total samples tested. Results: Among 17,957 individuals tested, the overall positivity rate for seasonal influenza was 5% (936 cases). Positivity was higher among males compared to females (7% vs. 4%), with children aged 5-9 years having the highest positivity rate (16%), while individuals aged 50-54 years had the lowest (1%). The median positivity rate was 4%, with a range of 1-16%. Regionally, the central region reported a positivity rate of 5%, with rates across all regions ranging from 5% to 8%. Over time, there was a gradual decline in positivity rates, decreasing from 16.5% in 2019 to 5.3% in 2023. Seasonal influenza exhibited bimodal peaks, with the primary peak occurring between March and May and a secondary peak from October to December. Influenza A was the predominant strain, accounting for 70% of seasonal influenza cases (669/936). Among the Influenza A subtypes, H3N2 was most common, representing 63% of cases (425/669). Conclusions: The declining seasonal influenza positivity rates from 2019 to 2023 and the predominance of Influenza A and H3N2 highlight the need for sustained surveillance in Uganda. Given Influenza A's high genetic variability and potential for novel strain emergence, monitoring circulating strains, informing vaccine development, and implementing targeted interventions for high-risk groups and regions are critical to controlling and preventing outbreaks.

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Genetic dissection of Mycobacteriophage D29 host lysis reveals two lysis regulators and a novel lipoprotein that regulate the lysis event and are localized to distinct regions of the genome

Pollenz, R. S.; Davenport, M.; Ruiz-Houston, K. M.

2026-08-29 microbiology 10.64898/2026.08.27.747656 medRxiv
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Phage D29 infects Mycobacterium smegmatis mc2 155 and has a non-canonical lysis cassette that encodes two endolysin proteins (Lysin A and Lysin B) and a single two transmembrane domain (TMD) protein, LysA2a similar to F1 cluster phage LysF1a. A 1TMD LysF1b homolog, LysA2b, is encoded by a gene found downstream of the tape measure. Exogenous expression of both LysA2 proteins in tandem is a cytotoxic to M. smegmatis. Deletion of lysA2a produces phages that are lysis competent with a 10-minute triggering delay and 30% plaque size reduction. Deletion of lysA2b results in severe lysis defects manifest by 70% reduced plaque size, delayed lysis timing and reduced burst size. Deletion of both lysA2 genes results in phages that are viable and show lysis phenotypes like the lysF1b deletion. Genetic complementation of lysA2b deleted phage with the lysF1b gene fully complements the lysis phenotypes but alters the triggering time to that of an F1 cluster phage. Energy poisons trigger lysis prematurely in all phages with lysA2 gene deletions. Lysis recovery mutants (LRM) isolated from phages lacking the lysA2b genes generate wild type plaque size and have point mutations that map to TMD1 or the C-terminal region of the lysA2a gene. LRMs isolated from phages lacking both lysA2 genes show premature lysis and have mutations that all map to residue C31 of a novel lipoprotein (gene 64). Deletion of gene 64 does not change wild type D29 lysis phenotypes or rescue the lysis defects of any of the lysA2 mutants. A fitness/competition assay shows that loss of the lysA2 genes imposes a substantial competitive fitness cost. These finding support a lysis regulatory network model where the 2TMD protein is maintained in an inactive state until activated by its cognate 1TMD lysis regulator and the lipoprotein has accessory function that may enhance lysis efficiency.

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AURORA: Analysing and understanding responses to oncological regimens with artificial intelligence

Lebmeier, A.; Lindner, T.; Karl, C.; Schöler, T.; Rank, A.

2026-09-02 health informatics 10.64898/2026.08.30.26361778 medRxiv
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Background: Immunochemotherapy (ICT) is considered standard in regards to care for small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) in extensive stages, yet reliable biomarkers for treatment response remain elusive. While previous univariate analyses suggest specific peripheral lymphocyte subsets correlate with survival, the systemic immune response involves complex, multivariate interactions that require advanced analytical approaches. Methods: This paper analysed high-dimensional flow cytometry data from 32 patients with stage IV SCLC treated with carboplatin, etoposide, and atezolizumab. Peripheral blood was analysed at baseline (V0) and longitudinally during treatment. To identify potential early predictive biomarkers and mitigate sample attrition in later cycles, we focused on baseline and measurements after two cycles of ICT (V1). We employed a rigorous machine learning framework utilising nested cross-validation, bootstrapping, and permutation-based statistical testing to evaluate eleven different regression and survival models. Results: Under model-appropriate metrics, regressors did not generalise (R2 <0); conversely, censoring-aware Random Survival Forests (RSF) successfully extracted robust prognostic signatures. Baseline immune profiles (V0) achieved a concordance index (C-index) of 0.66 (p= 0.015), while dynamic changes from V0 to V1 ({triangleup}V) achieved a C-index of 0.65 (p= 0.022). Crucially, absolute values measured after two cycles of ICT (V1) yielded no significant signal (p= 0.445). Feature importance analysis confirmed the prognostic value of Th17 normalisation and identified Naive Regulatory T cells and Memory B cells as candidate components. Conclusion: Machine learning validation confirms a predictive signal in the peripheral immune profile of SCLC patients. Early dynamic shifts in the balance between regulatory and effector immune arms are associated with prognosis, contrasting with the lack of signal in absolute counts after two cycles of ICT. These findings establish a proof of concept for multivariate liquid biopsy immune profiling, warranting confirmation in larger cohorts and highlighting the necessity of integrating systemic and tumour-intrinsic data.

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Software Application Profile: A real-time surveillance system for monitoring heat exposure and its health impacts - presenting the Rio de Janeiro Heat Dashboard

de Araujo Morais, J. H.; Dias Ferreira, C.; Saraceni, V.; Medeiros de Oliveira Cruz, D.; Mateus Oliveira Aguilar, G.; Cruz, O. G.

2026-08-31 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361449 medRxiv
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Motivation: With the scaling frequency and intensity of extreme heat events across the globe, it is critical for public institutions to develop early detection systems and continuous monitoring of these events and their impacts. In Brazil, Rio de Janeiro was the first city to publish its heat protocol, with the Rio Heat Dashboard as a central component of this system. Implementation: The dashboard was implemented using R/Shiny and integrates climatic and health data from multiple sources. General features: The application comprises real-time heat exposure monitoring and automatic alert level classification, which is monitored daily by multiple municipal actors and supports activation of actions specified in the heat protocol. It also features a health impact module, which lists each heat event and its impact on mortality, and primary care and emergency visits. Availability: The source for full reproducibility is available through https://github.com/joaohmorais/RioHeatDashboard.

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Clinical features of COVID-19 patients hospitalized at the Tashkent State Medical University and risk factors for intensive care unit admission: a cross-sectional study from Uzbekistan, Central Asia

Rakhimov, B.; Choi, J.; Kim, K.; Tuychiev, L.; Shadmanov, A.; Mamatkulov, B.

2026-08-31 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361631 medRxiv
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Background. The clinical course of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and the ability to anticipate which patients will require intensive care, were poorly characterized in Central Asia during the first pandemic wave. We aimed to describe the clinical features of hospitalized COVID-19 patients at the Tashkent State Medical University, Uzbekistan, and to identify risk factors for intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Methods. In this single-centre cross-sectional study, we reviewed the records of 2500 consecutive patients hospitalized between 11 April and 8 August 2020. Patients were grouped as asymptomatic or symptomatic, and symptomatic patients were compared by ICU versus non-ICU status. Groups were compared with chi-square or Fisher's exact and Mann-Whitney U tests. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression identified risk factors for ICU admission. Results. Of 2500 patients (median age 36 years; 60.9% male), 989 (39.6%) were asymptomatic and 1511 (60.4%) symptomatic. In total, 129 (5.2%) were admitted to the ICU and 38 (1.5%) died. ICU patients were older (median 56 vs 40.5 years) and more often had bilateral pneumonia, oxygen desaturation and cardiometabolic comorbidity. In the multivariable model (AUC 0.82), the independent predictors of ICU admission were ischemic heart disease (aOR 4.20), shortness of breath (aOR 3.22), hypertensive heart disease (aOR 2.93) and male sex (aOR 2.00). Conclusions. Older age, cardiometabolic comorbidity and respiratory compromise identified patients at high ICU risk. As one of the first clinical COVID-19 descriptions from Uzbekistan, these data provide a baseline for preparedness in Central Asia.

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Convergent Innate Immune and Metabolic Signatures in Parkinson's Disease and Viral Infection

Belyea, M. M.; Shafiq, M.; Lass, J.; Much, C.; Liu, Z.; Kruse, N.; Haendler, K.; Sreenivasan, V.; Gelpi, E.; Siebels, B.; Ondruschka, B.; Spielmann, M.; Klein, C.; Trinh, J.; Glatzel, M.

2026-09-01 pathology 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361092 medRxiv
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Viral infections have long been proposed as environmental contributors to neurodegenerative diseases, including Parkinson's disease (PD), yet the molecular mechanisms linking infection and neurodegeneration are not well defined. Neuroinflammation and disruption of central nervous system (CNS) homeostasis have emerged as potential mediators. In this study, we used severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of COVID-19, as a model pathogen to investigate convergent molecular pathways between viral infection and PD. Single-nucleus RNA sequencing (snRNA-seq) was performed on post-mortem striatal tissue from 14 individuals stratified into four groups: COVID-19 only (COVID-19), PD only (PD), comorbid PD with COVID-19 (PD/COVID-19), and controls (Control). The PD/COVID-19 group exhibited an expanded astrocytic population and a pronounced interferon-associated molecular signature characterized by increased expression of canonical interferon-stimulated genes, including IFI44L (average log2FC= 3.9; adjusted p=2.3 x 10-373), IFI44 (average log2FC=2.9; adjusted p=8.0 x 10-266), ISG15 (average log2FC=3.1; adjusted p=1.2 x 10-197), and RSAD2 (average log2FC= 3.5; adjusted p=8.6 x 10-111). Pathway analyses demonstrated activation of innate immune and antiviral signaling pathways, particularly within microglia and astrocytes, including interferon signaling, pattern-recognition receptor pathways, and complement-associated responses. In parallel, genes involved in lipid metabolism, cholesterol homeostasis, synaptic maintenance, and neuronal signaling were reduced across disease groups. Proteomic analyses independently confirmed enrichment of antiviral and interferon-associated pathways and identified convergent suppression of sterol, cholesterol, and lipid metabolic processes. Our findings identify a convergent molecular signature linking PD and COVID-19, pronounced in comorbid individuals and characterized by interferon-driven innate immune activation, glial inflammatory responses, and dysregulation of lipid metabolic homeostasis. Collectively, the data support a model in which severe viral infection amplifies biological pathways already implicated in PD pathogenesis.

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Acute Protein Responses Control SARS-CoV-2-specific Neurocognitive and General Post-Viral Sequelae

Liou, T. G.; Andrews, R. J.; Bass, B. L.; Battey, H.; Buonfiglio, L. G. V.; Cahill, B. C.; Cox, J. E.; Gibson, S.; Hartsell, S. C.; Hatton, N.; Hazel, M.; Helms, M. N.; Jensen, J. L.; Kartsonaki, C.; Kupfer, J.; Li, Y.; Lopes, F. B. T. P.; Manuel, A.; Marchetti, M.; Marvin, J. E.; Middleton, E. A.; Mimche, P.; Packer, K. A.; Paine, R.; Szczesniak, R. D.; Sturrock, A. B.; Tandar, A.; Tarbet, B.; Ulrich, A.; Warner, D.; Warren, K.; Weis, A. M.; Zimmerman, E.; Yoon, S.; Ownbey, M.; Youngquist, S. T.; Adler, F. R.

2026-08-31 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361488 medRxiv
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Post-acute infection syndromes (PAIS) follow viral syndromes including post-acute sequelae of COVID19 (PASC) which complicates 10-25% of SARS-CoV-2 infections. These syndromes lack precise explanatory mechanisms. We studied 173 human saliva proteomes during respiratory viral syndromes, seeking associations between 44 clinically-relevant protein expression patterns and subsequent sequelae counts. Exploratory models adjusted by extensive clinical annotations found interactions between 23 acutely-responsive proteins and SARS-CoV-2 infection that inversely predicted subsequent neurocognitive sequelae. An overlapping 19 acutely-responsive proteins during any acute respiratory viral syndrome inversely predicted general fatigue-related sequelae. Altogether, 29 proteins, derived from interferon stimulated genes (ISG), were uniformly beneficial, including 13 predictive of both neurocognitive and general sequelae. The proteins suggested both shared early pathobiology and virus-specific protective responses that shaped resolution of acute disease and different PAIS. Acutely elevated protective ISG proteins associated with reduced post-viral symptoms identify investigational starting points for novel mechanisms, diagnostics and therapeutics for PASC and PAIS.

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A mechanistic statistical model of dengue dynamics in an endemic region

Luna-Martinez, N.; Cruz-Rodriguez, E. X.; Bernal-Castro, E. A.

2026-09-03 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.09.01.26361961 medRxiv
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Background Dengue is a major public health challenge, and predictive models are crucial for early warning systems. However, many current modeling practices rely exclusively on climatic factors or employ complex algorithms that lack the interpretability needed for informed public health decision-making. To address these shortcomings, we developed and validated a multidimensional, interpretable statistical model to predict monthly dengue incidence. Methodology/Principal Findings We used a Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) with a Negative Binomial distribution to analyze 14 years (2010-2023) of spatiotemporal data from 37 municipalities in Huila, Colombia, an endemic region. The model integrates non-linear and lagged effects of climatic, demographic, and socioeconomic factors. The final model underwent rigorous external validation on an independent test set (2021-2023). Our model demonstrated high predictive discrimination (R2 = 0.743, Spearman's {rho} = 0.657), accurately capturing the timing of epidemic outbreaks. Key findings include the identification of an optimal thermal window for transmission at 27-28{degrees}C, a threshold effect for precipitation above 800 mm, and a saturation dynamic in outbreak autocorrelation. Conclusions/Significance This mechanistically-informed statistical approach provides a robust and transparent tool for epidemiological surveillance, successfully balancing high predictive performance with the explanatory power needed for effective, data-driven public health interventions.

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Antibody profiles across H5N1 and previously circulating viruses are highly dynamic and age- and imprint- independent

Beukema, M.; Vermeulen, E.; de Vries-Idema, J.; Huckriede, A.; Joshi, M.

2026-08-31 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361396 medRxiv
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The increasing incidence of H5N1 influenza virus transmission from animal species to humans has heightened concerns about an imminent H5N1 pandemic. Prior studies using recombinant hemagglutinin and neuraminidase proteins have reported age-dependent cross-reactivity to H5N1, attributed to immune imprinting from an individual's first influenza virus exposure. However, whether this pattern holds when using whole inactivated virus (WIV), capturing antibodies against diverse viral proteins, and is stable over time remains unknown. We therefore aimed to determine whether H5N1 cross-reactivity of pre-existing antibodies to whole virus follows an age-dependent or imprinting-specific pattern, and whether this pattern is stable over a five-year period. To this end, we measured serum antibody levels in adolescents, adults and seniors by ELISA using whole inactivated H5N1 virus as antigen rather than purified proteins. Detectable, albeit generally low, levels of H5N1-reactive antibodies were present in most individuals, irrespective of age. Comparison of antibody levels against H5N1 with those to five historical influenza virus strains revealed a consistent positive correlation between H5N1-reactive antibodies and responses to the H1N1pdm09 strain A/California/7/2009 (CA), across all age groups. Using unbiased clustering of antibody titers against H5N1, CA, and the H3N2 strain A/Perth/16/2009 (PE), we identified seven distinct age-transcending antibody profiles. These profiles covered individuals with varying titers to all three included viruses but also identified individuals with high anti-CA levels, yet low anti-H5N1 levels and vice versa. Moreover, despite stable antibody levels over a five-year interval in the study population, individual antibody levels and profiles fluctuated considerably over this period. Taken together, our results confirm the presence of H5N1-reactive antibodies in human sera and their association with previously circulating strains. However, they also caution against inferring antibody levels against a new strain based solely on responses to antigenically related strains and highlight the limitations of extrapolating immune status from single timepoint measurements.

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BCG vaccination recalibrates innate immunity in ART-treated people with HIV

Dolle, C.; Tutumlu, T. K.; Bartl, L.; Depouilly, B.; Russenberger, D.; Zeeb, M.; Kusejko, K.; West, E.; Braun, D. L.; Schwarzmüller, M.; Elie, B.; Trkola, A.; Günthard, H. F.; Nemeth, J.

2026-09-02 hiv aids 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361620 medRxiv
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Despite suppressive antiretroviral therapy, many people with HIV (PWH) retain chronic interferon-associated immune dysregulation. Observational data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study linked asymptomatic mycobacterial exposure to lower viral set points, reduced interferon-associated activity, and attenuated HIV-specific antibody responses, a pattern sharing features with HIV elite controllers and natural hosts of primate lentiviruses. We therefore examined whether Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination could induce a related immune configuration in ART-treated PWH. Using longitudinal systems-level profiling within the BELIEVE trial, we found that BCG reduced constitutive NK cell IFN-{gamma} production and PBMC-mediated direct cytotoxicity without impairing inducible cytokine responses or antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity. Multiomic and proteomic analyses showed reduced interferon- and activation-associated programs, while adaptive immune parameters remained largely stable and follow-up revealed no obvious adverse clinical pattern. This configuration, reduced baseline interferon activity coexisting with preserved Fc-dependent effector function, shares selected features with immune states described in natural lentiviral control and provides a rationale for testing BCG in combination with antibody-based HIV interventions.

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Rural-urban disparities and associated factors of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Zambia: A convergent mixed-methods study using the Proximate Determinant Framework.

Wantakisha, E. W. R.; Nyirenda, S.; Narayani, M.

2026-08-31 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.25.26361355 medRxiv
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Background Rural-urban disparities in SARS-CoV-2 infection epidemiology remain poorly quantified and understood in Zambia despite differences in healthcare access, services and preventive interventions. This study examined the geographical distribution and associated factors of SARS-CoV-2 cases across selected rural and urban districts of Zambia. Methods A convergent mixed-methods study comprised of quantitative survey and qualitative interviews was conducted in; Ndola (Urban), Kafue (Peri-urban) and Lufwanyama (Rural). The proximate determinant framework guided variable selection and interpretation. Quantitative combined (Hospital-surveillance data with community survey), while qualitative included In-depth interviews. Participants were sampled using multistage sampling technique. Quantitative data were analysed using STATA version 17, while qualitative data were analysed thematically. Findings were integrated through triangulation. Results A total of 528 participants were included, with a median age 31 years (15-71). Overall SARS-CoV-2 positivity was 12.6%, varying across rural (16.5%), peri-urban (14.9%), and urban (9.9%) settings, though residence was not associated with infection (P<0.132). Participants aged [&ge;]49 years had significantly higher odds of infection (aOR=8.78; 95% CI:1.15-66.99), whereas secondary education (aOR=0.37; 95% CI:0.16-0.86) and hospital-based testing (aOR=0.37; 95% CI:0.15-0.92) were associated with lower odds of infection. Vaccine uptake was highest in urban areas but was not independently associated with infection. Qualitative findings revealed marked rural-urban differences in perceived susceptibility, testing access, vaccine decision-making, and adherence to preventive measures, explaining several quantitative observations. Conclusion SARS-CoV-2 infection across rural and urban settings in Zambia was influenced by demographic, behavioral, and health-system factors rather than geographic residence alone. These findings highlight the need for context-specific prevention strategies, equitable access to testing, strengthened community surveillance, and targeted risk communication to improve preparedness and response for future respiratory disease outbreaks.

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Multidimensional Social Vulnerability and Hepatic and Extrahepatic Outcomes in Adults With HIV/HBV Coinfection in the United States

Yendewa, G.; Chengsupanimit, T.; Dehghani, A.; Ahmed, A.; Mohareb, A.; Cohen, C.; Freeman, M.; Kim, H. N.; Ofotokun, I.; Dube, K.

2026-09-02 hiv aids 10.64898/2026.08.31.26361853 medRxiv
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Background: HIV/HBV coinfection is associated with substantial liver-related morbidity and mortality, yet the impact of social vulnerability (SV) on clinical outcomes has not been systematically assessed. We evaluated associations of multidimensional SV with mortality, hepatic, virologic, and extrahepatic organ outcomes among adults with HIV/HBV. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using TriNetX data from 110 U.S. healthcare organizations (2010-2026). We propensity score matched adults with HIV/HBV with and without documented SV 1:1 (2,024 per group). SV was defined using a four-domain framework encompassing material, healthcare access and engagement, interpersonal, and psychosocial vulnerability. Results: Over 15,900 person-years, SV was associated with higher mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 2.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.72-2.47), liver composite events (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.07-1.76), hepatic decompensation (HR, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.39-2.70), hepatic failure (HR, 2.39; 95% CI, 1.53-3.73), HBV viremia (HR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.32-2.16), and HIV viremia (HR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.71-2.46). SV was also associated with major adverse cardiovascular events (HR, 1.47), chronic kidney disease (HR, 1.49), and diabetes (HR, 1.25). Multidomain SV generally showed stronger associations than single-domain SV for most hepatic and virologic outcomes, with HR ranges of 1.76-2.62 versus 1.35-1.76 for single-domain SV. Healthcare access and engagement vulnerability was most consistently associated with mortality and hepatic outcomes. Conclusions: SV was associated with mortality, hepatic disease, impaired HIV/HBV control, extrahepatic organ morbidity, and acute care utilization in adults with HIV/HBV. SV assessment may improve risk stratification and identify actionable intervention targets during HIV/HBV care.

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Factors associated with the use of Long Acting Reversible Contraceptives among adolescents at first level hospitals in Lusaka, Zambia.

Ikabongo, I.; Macha, S.; Vwalika, B.; Kaonga, P.; Masumo, M. m.; Halwiindi, H.; Kunka, E.; Hazemba, A. N.

2026-08-31 sexual and reproductive health 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361478 medRxiv
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Background: Unintended adolescent pregnancies remain a public health challenge in Zambia, where LARC use is low despite their effectiveness. Barriers such as stigma, misconceptions, and limited access persist. Previous studies conducted in Lusaka district did not explore the challenges faced by adolescents in trying to access and use LARCs. Understanding these challenges is crucial for developing targeted interventions to promote safe and effective contraception practices. This study examined factors influencing adolescent knowledge, willingness, and uptake of LARCs in public health facilities in Lusaka. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted between November 2024 and March 2025 among adolescent girls aged 15-19 years in five first-level hospitals in Lusaka, Zambia, using structured questionnaires to obtain quantitative data1. LARC use was measured as a binary outcome, with multiple regression identifying associated factors. Results: There were 400 participants in total, of whom 48% (181/376) had ever used a LARC. In the adjusted model, age was significantly associated with LARC use (AOR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.11-1.77; p < 0.001). Adolescents who were willing to delay pregnancy had markedly higher odds of using LARCs (AOR = 7.46, 95% CI: 1.42-39.06; p = 0.017). Knowledge of LARCs remained a strong independent predictor, more than doubling the likelihood of uptake (AOR = 2.69, 95% CI: 1.12-6.46; p = 0.027). Having children was also significantly associated with higher LARC use (AOR = 2.62, 95% CI: 1.11-6.23; p = 0.029), while participants with unknown HIV status had lower odds of LARC use (AOR = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.10-0.97; p = 0.044). In addition, adolescents residing in Chipata had substantially higher odds of LARC uptake compared to those in Kanyama (AOR = 317.93, 95% CI: 35.01-2887.2; p < 0.001). Conclusions: The findings indicate that age, knowledge of LARCs, reproductive experience (having children), and willingness to delay pregnancy were significantly associated with higher odds of LARC uptake, and almost half of the participants had already used a LARC method. Although higher education showed an upward trend, it was not statistically significant in the adjusted model. Limited awareness and variability in service delivery across clinics highlight the need for strengthened counseling and reliable access to LARCs. As this study focused only on adolescents already attending Family Planning Clinics, further research is needed to assess LARC availability, accessibility, and quality of counseling across different settings in Zambia.

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Heterogeneity in pre-vaccination population immunity can contribute to variability in vaccine effectiveness estimates

Pillai, A. N.; Park, S. W.; Lipsitch, M.; Cowling, B. J.; Cobey, S.

2026-08-31 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.29.26361716 medRxiv
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Vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates can vary widely between years and populations, even for the same vaccine. Estimated VE is known to be sensitive to susceptible depletion and differences in pre-vaccination infection risk between vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. However, how variation in pre-vaccination risk within and between the two groups affects VE estimates over time remains unclear. This uncertainty is especially important given negative VE estimates. We investigated the difference between estimated VE and true vaccine protection considering continuous distributions of pre-vaccination infection risk under three scenarios. When the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations differ in their mean risk, estimated VE can be higher or lower than true vaccine protection. Similar patterns arise when both populations share identical means but different risk distributions. Finally, if infection-derived immunity lasts longer than vaccine protection, annual VE estimates can vary by tens of percentage points between years despite constant true vaccine protection. These theoretical results underscore that VE studies estimate contrasting risk between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals in a particular time and place, and VE estimates can vary counterintuitively between years and populations even with constant vaccine-induced protection. Explaining variability in estimated VE thus requires a more complete understanding of populations' distributions of infection risk.

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Utilization, Determinants and Experiences of Youth-Friendly Sexual and Reproductive Health Services Among Youth in Gurage Zone, Southern Ethiopia: A Concurrent Mixed-Methods Study

Nida, G. G.; Khunou, S.; Mphuthi, D.

2026-08-31 sexual and reproductive health 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361385 medRxiv
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Background: Sexual and reproductive health (SRH) is essential for youth development, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa where youth represent a significant proportion of the population. Despite global efforts to promote Sexual and Reproductive Health rights, many disadvantaged youths face barriers to accessing comprehensive information and services. Youth-friendly sexual and reproductive health (YFSRH) services are central to improving youth health outcomes. Despite national standards in Ethiopia, implementation challenges persist. Healthcare workers (HCWs) are key actors in promoting and delivering YFSRH services Method: A concurrent mixed-methods design was employed among youth (18-24 years) and health care workers in Guraghe Zone, Southern Ethiopia. Quantitative data were collected using self-administered questionnaires, while qualitative data were gathered through key informant interviews. Quantitative data were analyzed using SPSS version 29, and qualitative data were analyzed thematically. Result: Although youths showed strong interest in Sexual and Reproductive Health information, help-seeking was often delayed due to discomfort, secrecy, social pressure, and limited foresight. Utilization of youth-friendly Sexual and Reproductive Health services was constrained by distance, inconvenient service hours, limited privacy and confidentiality, perceived judgmental provider attitudes, and financial barriers, reducing trust and repeat use. Conclusion: Improving youth Sexual and Reproductive Health requires integrated actions across education, families, and health services. Strengthening multi-channel Sexual and Reproductive Health education with life skills and psychosocial support, alongside decentralized, affordable, confidential, and non-judgmental youth-friendly services, is essential.

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Reassessing the epidemiology of blaCTX-M-15: Emergence of E. coli ST1193 and potential replacement of ST131.

Elena, A. X.; Batantou Mabandza, D.; Kluemper, U.; Breurec, S.; Dagot, C.; Berendonk, T. U.

2026-08-31 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361291 medRxiv
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The global dissemination of antimicrobial resistance is increasingly driven by bacterial clones combining antimicrobial resistance with enhanced virulence and environmental adaptability. Escherichia coli sequence type 131 (ST131) has historically been regarded as a major disseminator of the extended-spectrum {beta}-lactamase (ESBL) blaCTX-M-15. However, the emergence of E. coli ST1193 carrying blaCTX-M-15 may represent an ongoing shift in the epidemiology of this resistance determinant. Here, we investigated the prevalence, genomic characteristics, virulence and antimicrobial resistance potential of ST1193 in comparison with ST131. A total of 1,136 E. coli isolates were recovered from touristic and non-touristic environments, hospital-associated samples, and aircraft toilets in Guadeloupe. Isolates were whole-genome sequenced and analysed for antimicrobial resistance and virulence determinants. Additionally, publicly available genomic data comprising 1,215 blaCTX-M-15-positive ST131 and ST1193 isolates were analysed to assess temporal and geographical trends. ST1193 was significantly associated with aircraft-associated samples and exhibited a higher antimicrobial resistance gene burden than ST131, while maintaining a comparable virulence factor content. Analysis of publicly available genomes revealed similar temporal emergence patterns for blaCTX-M-15-positive ST1193 and ST131, with ST1193 showing a more recent distribution and a higher number of deposited isolates in recent years, consistent with a potential ongoing clonal replacement. Comparative genomic analysis identified numerous virulence and adaptation-associated genes shared between both sequence types, while ST1193 additionally carried distinct determinants, including components of the transmissible locus of stress tolerance. Furthermore, quinolone resistance-associated mutations were strongly linked to blaCTX-M-15 carriage, particularly among ST1193 isolates. Together, these findings identify E. coli ST1193 as an emerging high-risk clone with substantial potential for blaCTX-M-15 dissemination. Its association with aircraft-associated samples further highlights the potential role of air travel in long-distance transmission and underscores the need to reconsider current surveillance strategies focused predominantly on ST131.

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Plasma and follicular fluid concentrations of carotenoids, tocopherols and retinol in a French population of women undergoing in vitro fertilization: a monocentric non-interventional study

Ndiaye, A.; Thiebaut, A. C. M.; Borel, P.; Sabran, C.; Elis, S.; Guerif, F.; Maillard, V.

2026-09-01 sexual and reproductive health 10.64898/2026.08.28.26360803 medRxiv
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The distribution of fat-soluble compounds (including antioxidants) in follicular fluid (FF) remains sparsely documented in relation to in vitro fertilization (IVF) outcomes and existing studies have reported diverging associations. This study aimed to describe plasma and FF concentrations of fat-soluble micronutrients in women undergoing IVF and to analyze their adjusted associations with ovarian function, embryo development and pregnancy outcomes. In 2021-2022, plasma and FF samples were collected from 82 women (first IVF cycle) at oocyte puncture, along with lifestyle data covering the three preceding months. Eleven compounds (two tocopherols, three xanthophylls, five carotenes and retinol) were quantified. All compounds were detected in both compartments (lowest in FF) except phytoene, undetectable in FF. Plasma and FF -tocopherol concentrations were positively associated with plasma estradiol levels before oocyte puncture (both p<0.01) while FF -carotene and lycopene were inversely associated with plasma progesterone concentrations (p=0.01 and 0.02, respectively). Plasma phytofluene and phytoene were positively associated with mature oocyte rate (p=0.03 and p=0.01, respectively), while FF retinol was negatively associated (p=0.03). Carotenes, tocopherols and retinol were inversely associated with later IVF outcomes: fertilization rate (p<0.001 for plasma g-tocopherol, 0.02 for FF retinol), top-quality embryo (p=0.02 for plasma phytofluene), biochemical pregnancy at day 7 post-embryo transfer (p=0.05 for plasma -tocopherol, 0.02 for plasma -carotene), clinical pregnancy (p=0.03 for plasma -tocopherol, 0.01 for plasma phytoene) and live birth (p=0.04 for plasma -tocopherol, 0.02 for plasma phytoene). Plasma and FF g-tocopherol were positively associated with embryo fragmentation (both p<0.05). Finally, among xanthophylls, only plasma {beta}-cryptoxanthin was positively associated with plasma progesterone concentrations (p=0.02). Our findings of heterogeneous associations between tocopherols, carotenes, retinol and IVF outcomes across the stages of IVF suggest a beneficial effect limited to early outcomes and support a complex and context-dependent role of these compounds in female reproduction. This manuscript has been submitted to PlosOne on August 19, 2026.

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Geometric characterization of the HSV - 1 glycoprotein B - amyloid β interaction in Alzheimer's disease using Forman-Ricci curvature

Bou Dagher, L.; Han, Z.; Zhou, S.; Fülöp, T.; Desroches, M.; Rodrigues, S.

2026-08-29 bioinformatics 10.64898/2026.08.26.747308 medRxiv
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Alzheimer's disease is characterized by the accumulation and aggregation of amyloid-{beta}(A{beta}), but the molecular mechanisms linking environmental and infectious factors to A$\beta$ conformational changes remain incompletely understood. Herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) has been proposed as a potential contributor to AD pathology, and interactions between the viral glycoprotein B (gB) and A$\beta$ may influence the conformational behaviour of the peptide. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations provide atomic-scale information on such interactions, but conventional structural descriptors may not fully capture changes in the organization of residue interaction networks. Here, we introduce a graph-geometric framework based on Forman-Ricci curvature to characterize the evolution of residue interaction networks during MD simulations. Each simulation frame is represented as a residue interaction graph based on C--C contacts, and residue-wise curvature profiles are analysed across time. We apply the framework to A{beta}1-42 in isolation and in complex with HSV-1 gB. Conventional MD analyses indicate stable association of the simulated complex, favourable interaction energetics, and conformational changes in A{beta}, including a transition from -helical structure toward {beta}-turn-rich conformations over the simulated timescale. Forman-Ricci curvature reveals pronounced and spatially localized remodelling of the A{beta} residue interaction network in the complex, with the strongest changes concentrated in the C-terminal region. These regions also exhibit reduced temporal curvature fluctuations and progressively distinct geometric behaviour throughout the simulation. Hierarchical clustering further identifies cooperative groups of residues with coordinated curvature dynamics, including a prominent C-terminal domain. Together, these results demonstrate that Forman-Ricci curvature provides a complementary description of biomolecular dynamics by capturing changes in the geometric organization of residue interaction networks that are not directly represented by conventional structural descriptors. The framework provides a general computational approach for studying network-level structural remodelling in protein molecular dynamics and offers a quantitative perspective on the conformational consequences of HSV-1 gB--A{beta} association.