Diagnostic Classification for Long Covid Patients identifying Persistent Virus and Hyperimmune Pathophysiologies

A multiplex diagnostic test is evaluated for self-reported long COVID associated persistent symptoms and a poor recovery from a SARS-CoV-2 infection. A mass-standardised concentration of total antibodies (AC), high-quality (HQ) antibodies and percentage of HQ antibodies (HQ%) is assessed against a spectrum of spike proteins to the SARS-CoV-2 variants: Wuhan, , {delta}, and the Omicron variants BA.1, BA.2, BA.2.12.1, BA.2.75, BA.5, CH.1.1, BQ.1.1 and XBB.1.5 in three cohorts. A cohort of control patients (n = 46) recovered (CC) and a cohort of self-declared long COVID patients (n = 113) (LCC). A nested Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis, performed for the variant with lowest HQ concentration in the spectrum, produced an area under the curve and AUC = 0.61 (0.53-0.70) for the CC vs LCC cohorts. For the LCC cohort, the cut-off thresholds for AC = 0.8 mg/L, HQ = 1.5 mg/L and HQ% of 34% were determined, leading to a 71% sensitivity and 66% specificity derived by the Youden metric. The cohorts may be fully classified based on ROC and outlier analysis to give an incidence of persistent virus 62% (95% CI 52% - 71%), hyperimmune 12% (95% CI 7% - 20%) and unclassified, 26% (95% CI 18% - 35%). The overall diagnostic accuracy for both the hyper and hypo immune is 69%. All clinical interventions can now be tailored for the heterogenous long COVID patient cohort.