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Eurosurveillance

European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC)

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match Eurosurveillance's content profile, based on 80 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.06% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Genomic Epidemiology to Investigate the Origins and Zoonotic Implications of Antibiotic-Resistant Escherichia coli on Beef and Lamb Meat Sold by Independent Butchers in Wales

Sealey, J. E.; Peltonen, N.; Llamazares, B.; Moiseienko, Y.; Mounsey, O.; Taylor, J.; Wright, L.; Williams, P.; Avison, M. B.

2026-03-31 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.03.30.26349758 medRxiv
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Many studies have identified antibiotic resistant (ABR) Escherichia coli on meat. Appropriate hand hygiene and cooking practices should minimise the risk of gastrointestinal colonisation with ABR E. coli found on meat, and the subsequent chance of causing resistant opportunistic extraintestinal infection. There are large gaps in our understanding of the prevalence, origins and zoonotic potential of ABR E. coli found on meat, however, and particularly for meat reared in extensive farming systems. Wales is a devolved nation within the United Kingdom having large populations of extensively-reared sheep and beef cattle. To help address knowledge gaps around ABR E. coli on extensively reared meat, therefore, beef mince and lamb loin/leg steaks/chops were purchased from 50 (beef) and 46 (lamb) independent butchers across Wales. Following enrichment culture, 200 g meat samples were found to be positive for E. coli resistant to amoxicillin (31% positivity), streptomycin (28%), spectinomycin (29%), amoxicillin-clavulanate (11%), 3rd generation cephalosporins (2%) and fluoroquinolones (5%). Phylogenetic analysis confirmed that Welsh lamb meat ABR E. coli isolates (n=79) are more closely related to those found in faecal samples collected around sheep (n=352) than around beef cattle (n=361) on Welsh farms. This suggests that faecal contamination at or around slaughter is their primary origin. We found no closely related meat/infection clones (<20 SNPs distant and the same antibiotic resistance genes) when comparing ABR E. coli from Welsh meat (n=92) and those causing extraintestinal infections in people (n=2387) in an English region bordering Wales. We conclude, therefore, that the wider zoonotic implications of finding ABR E coli on beef and lamb meat sold at independent butchers in Wales are small.

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Sample size in social contact surveys for epidemic modelling

Danon, L.; Brooks-Pollock, E.

2026-03-31 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.03.30.26349407 medRxiv
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Background Social contact surveys, which measure who-contacts-whom, are widely used to inform infectious disease transmission models and estimate the reproduction number (R), a key metric for assessing epidemic risk. Despite their widespread use, sample size calculations are not routinely performed. Aims To assess the impact of sample size on estimates of R and determine a practical target sample size for social contact surveys used in epidemic modelling. Methods We conducted a review of social contact surveys (2008-2025) to characterise current practice. We characterised the impact of survey size on epidemic metrics using two social contact surveys, the UK Social Contact Survey and POLYMOD (Europe) and two methods. For each dataset and approach, we generated repeated subsamples and calculated the resulting reproduction numbers, characterised their distributions and measured uncertainty. Results We identified 107 unique social contact surveys from 57 studies. Sample sizes ranged from 30 to more than 10,000 participants, with a median of 1,438. One quarter of surveys contained fewer than 1,000 participants. From our simulations, we find that sample sizes below 200 individuals can result in highly variability reproduction numbers. Increasing sample size increases precision, and the most meaningful gains are up to 1,300 individuals. Increasing sample sizes over 3,000 individuals leads to smaller gains. Conclusions A minimum sample size of approximately 1,200-1,300 participants appears sufficient for general-purpose use. These findings support the inclusion of sample size considerations in the design, reporting and interpretation of social contact surveys used for epidemic intelligence and public health decision-making.

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Modelling serological cross-reactivity to disentangle the dynamics of West Nile and Usutu viruses in an emerging area

Bastard, J.; Migne, C.; Helle, T.; Agneray, E.; Bigeard, C.; Boudjadi, Y.; Chevrier, M.; Dumarest, M.; Gondard, M.; Martin-Latil, S.; Mathews-Martin, L.; Petit, T.; Charpentier, T.; Pouillevet, H.; Durand, B.; Metras, R.; Gonzalez, G.

2026-04-17 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.07.26350295 medRxiv
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Zoos may serve as sentinel sites for zoonotic vector-borne diseases. West Nile virus (WNV) and Usutu virus (USUV) are closely related orthoflaviviruses transmitted between Culex mosquitoes and a bird reservoir. Both viruses can also infect mammals, including humans, where they may cause symptoms and, more rarely, hospitalization and death. However, serological cross-reactivity between WNV and USUV complicates their differential diagnosis. Here, we aimed to reconstruct the dynamics of emergence of WNV in a zoo located in a newly affected area in Europe, using ELISA and Virus Neutralization Test (VNT) serological analysis of 1707 animal sera collected between 2015 and 2024. Combining this data in a model accounting for cross-reactivity with USUV, we estimated yearly forces of infection (FOI) by both viruses, and thus found that WNV likely circulated in the area one year prior to the first cases reported to the passive surveillance system. Our results also showed that, in the zoo, mammals and reptiles had a lower risk of infection than birds (relative risk of 0.14 [0.05; 0.28]), and that the exposure of birds to water (aquatic lifestyle or proximity to stagnant water) affected the risk. Finally, we estimated diagnosis parameters, including the sensitivity of the VNT (80.4% [76.5%; 84.3%]), the expected VNT titer value, and the level of serological cross-reactivity between viruses during the VNT. To conclude, our modelling framework allowed to disentangle the co-circulation of two closely related viruses, a crucial point in ensuring the reliable sentinel surveillance of these vector-borne zoonotic pathogens.

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Global Burden, Temporal Trends, and Health Inequalities of Early-Onset Group B Streptococcus Infection in Neonates, 1990-2021: A Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Wen, Q.; Wang, X.; Wu, Y.; Jiang, Y.; Xu, Z.

2026-04-04 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.04.02.26350022 medRxiv
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Objectives: Group B Streptococcus (GBS) is a leading cause of neonatal mortality worldwide. However, the global burden of early-onset GBS disease (EOD-GBS) has not been fully elucidated. We aimed to describe the geographical distribution and epidemiological characteristics of the EOD-GBS burden, and analyze its association with socio-economic development and universal health coverage. Methods: We used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 and the Universal Health Coverage Service Coverage Index (UHC-SCI) to calculate estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) of EOD-GBS mortality. Sex differences were analyzed using the conservative overlap assessment. The geographical distribution of EOD-GBS clinical presentations and mortality was mapped. Health inequality analysis was conducted to evaluate the relationship between the sociodemographic index (SDI), UHC-SCI, and EOD-GBS burden. Results: Global EOD-GBS mortality decreased by nearly 50% from 1990 (693.41 per 100,000) to 2021 (348.80 per 100,000). However, the decline was not uniform: the most significant decrease occurred in high-middle SDI regions (EAPC: -7.17%), and the slowest in low SDI regions (EAPC: -2.23%). Male neonates accounted for the most EOD-GBS deaths, particularly in high SDI regions. Lower respiratory infections were common in Asia and Oceania; meningitis was more prominent in Europe. Inequality analysis revealed a phenomenon of "absolute convergence but relative differentiation": as social development and universal health coverage improves, the absolute mortality gap between countries narrowed, but relative burden concentrated increasingly among the poorest populations. Conclusions: The global burden of EOD-GBS has decreased substantially, but there are marked differences among countries. Continued socioeconomic development and expanded universal health coverage are critical to further reduce neonatal mortality.

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Impact of prescription-free access to sexually transmitted infection screening tests in medical-biological laboratories: cross-sectional analysis of data from clinical laboratories in France.

Gil-Salcedo, A.; Gazzano, V.; Arsene, S.; Durand, A.; Roger, S.; Prots, L.; Laurencin, N.; Chanard, E.; Duez, A.; Le Naour, E.; Bausset, O.; Ghali, B.; Strzelecki, A.-C.; Felloni, C.; Levillain, R.; Fargeat, C.; Lefrancois, S.; Feuerstein, D.; Visseaux, B.; Escudie, L.; Visseaux, C.; Leclerc, C.; Haim-Boukobza, S.

2026-04-24 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.23.26351562 medRxiv
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Background: Since September 2024, France has implemented a national reform allowing prescription-free access (PFA) to sexually transmitted infection (STI) screening in medical biological laboratories (MBLs). This study aims to characterize the populations undergoing STI testing according to their access modality and evaluate the probability of test positivity in relation to testing pathway, sex, and age groups. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of all individuals screened for Chlamydia trachomatis, Gonorrhoea, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), and syphilis by treponemal-specific immunoassay (TSI) in Cerballiance MBLs between Mars 2025 and February 2026. Multivariable logistic regression models stratified by sex and adjusted for age and region assessed associations between screening modality and STI positivity. Results: Among 1,008,737 individuals included, 27.8% were under PFA and 72.2 under prescription-based access (PBA). PFA users were more frequently male (47.4% vs. 36.3%, p<0.001) and aged 20-39 years (34.0%, p<0.001). Overall positivity rates differed by modality: PFA was associated with higher detection of Chlamydia (4.6% vs. 3.6%). PBA group showed more positive cases of syphilis (3.4% vs. 1.2%), HBV (1.3% vs. 0.4%), and HIV infections (0.3% vs. 0.2%, all p<0.001). Co-infection and gonorrhoea proportions did not significantly differ between modalities. Conclusions: PFA substantially increased STI screening uptake, particularly among young adults and men, and enhanced detection of bacterial STIs. PBA remains essential for diagnosing viral and chronic infections. These findings highlight the complementary roles of both access strategies and support PFA screening as an effective public health intervention to broaden STI detection and reduce transmission.

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Group A Streptococcus Molecular Point of Care testing in a Paediatric Emergency Department

Mills, E. A.; Bingham, R.; Nijman, R. G.; Sriskandan, S.

2026-04-22 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.04.20.26351279 medRxiv
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BackgroundAn upsurge in Streptococcus pyogenes infections 2022-2023 highlighted potential benefits of point-of-care tests (POCT) to support clinical pathways, prevent outbreaks, and optimise antibiotic use. ObjectivesWe conducted a pilot research study in a west London paediatric emergency department (ED) to determine whether a molecular POCT had potential to alter management in children who were also having a conventional throat swab taken for culture. MethodsChildren <16 years presenting to ED who had a throat swab requested by a clinician were invited to have a second swab taken for research purposes only. Clinical management was unaffected by the research swab result, which was processed using a molecular POCT that was not approved for use in the host NHS Trust. ResultsPrevalence of streptococcal infection was low during the study (May 2023-June 2025); swab positivity in symptomatic children was 12.8% (6/47). Overall, 38/49 (77.6%) participants who had throat swabs received antibiotics. Of those children recommended to receive antibiotics, 29/38 (76.3%) had a negative POCT. Mean time to reporting of positive throat swab culture results was 3.67 days (range 3-5 days) leading to occasional delay in treatment, although POCT identified positive results within minutes. ConclusionAntibiotic use was frequent and could be avoided or stopped by use of a rule out POCT in over three-quarters of children in the ED, if suspicion of S. pyogenes is the main driver for prescribing. POCT were easy to process and produced immediate results compared with culture, in theory enabling timely decision-making and avoiding treatment delay.

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Antimicrobial resistance in WHO priority bacteria from a One Health perspective in Cameroon: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Koudoum, P. L.; Ateudjieu, W. D.; Nana, A.; Guemkam, G. W.; Nditemeloung, G.; Abena, J. V.; Rene, E.; Vigny, N. N.; Joseph Magloire, T.; Mbossi, A. D.; Kamgno, J.; Kamga, H. G.

2026-04-03 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.03.26350076 medRxiv
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Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is classified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as one of humanity's ten global public health threats. This review aimed to estimate the prevalence, temporal trends and regional distribution of AMR in WHO priority bacteria across human, animal and environmental sources in Cameroon. This review was conducted following PRISMA 2020 guidelines, with the protocol registered in PROSPERO. A systematic literature search was conducted in Google Scholar, PubMed, African Journals Online, Hinari, and Africa indexus Medicus. Random effects models were used to estimate pooled prevalence and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), with subgroup analyses by bacterial source, region, and sampling period. Of 1566 articles screened, 115 met the inclusion criteria. The reported data encompassed 16 bacteria-antibiotic combinations in 16,948 isolates. Globally, third-generation cephalosporin (3GC) resistance in E. coli was the most prevalent (49.0%, 95% CI: 39.0-60.0%, I2=97.7%), reaching 77.0% (95% CI: 46.0-98.0%, I2=95.6%) in environmental isolates. The pooled prevalence of ESBL production in all included Enterobacterales was 37.0% (95% CI: 30.0-45.0%). Most of the highest resistance rates were observed in the Littoral region. The resistance rates between 2016 and 2025 were significantly higher than those from 2000 to 2015. These increases were more marked in fluoroquinolone-resistant Salmonella spp (1.0% to 48.0%, I2=97.3%, p<0.001), carbapenem-resistant E. coli (0% to 15%, I2=93.5%, p<0.001), and 3GC-resistant E. coli (34.0% to 64.0%, I2=97.6%, p=0.003). Antimicrobial resistance in WHO priority bacteria in Cameroon is high, unevenly distributed across regions and significantly increasing over time. These results underscore the crucial need for strengthened AMR surveillance to curb the growing threat of AMR in Cameroon.

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Retrospective analysis of clinical and environmental genotyping reveals persistence of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in the water system of a large tertiary children's hospital in England

Sheth, E.; Case, L.; Shaw, F.; Dwyer, N.; Poland, J.; Wan, Y.; Larru, B.

2026-04-24 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.04.23.26351604 medRxiv
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Background Pseudomonas aeruginosa is a major cause of healthcare-associated infections in paediatric settings, where its persistence in moist environments such as hospital water and wastewater systems poses a particular risk to neonates and immunocompromised children. Aim The aim of this study was to showcase the long-term survival and transmission of P. aeruginosa in a large tertiary children's hospital in England which is crucial to develop strategies for water-safe care. Methods Environmental P. aeruginosa isolates were collected from taps, sinks, showers, and baths in augmented care areas of a 330-bed tertiary children's hospital built to NHS water-safety standards. Clinical isolates were classified as invasive (blood, cerebrospinal fluid, and bronchoalveolar lavage) or non-invasive (respiratory, urine, ear, abdominal, and rectal surveillance). Variable number tandem repeat (VNTR) profiles and metadata were extracted from PDF reports, de-identified, deduplicated, and curated using Python and R. Findings This retrospective study analysed nine-locus VNTR profiles of 457 P. aeruginosa isolates submitted to the UK Health Security Agency from a large tertiary children's hospital, identifying 56 isolate clusters (each with [&ge;]2 isolates), of which 19 (34%) contained at least one invasive isolate. The most persistent cluster (Cluster 1, n=20) spanned from July 2016 to September 2024, containing environmental and clinical (invasive and non-invasive) isolates. Conclusion These findings demonstrate long-term persistence of certain genotypes and temporal overlap between environmental and clinical isolates, highlighting the difficulty in detecting and eradicating P. aeruginosa in hospital water and wastewater systems and reinforcing the need for continuous rigorous water system controls.

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Classifying and Differentiating Individuals with Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Influenza, and COVID-19 Cases in OpenSAFELY

Prestige, E.; Warren-Gash, C.; Quint, J. K.; Evans, D.; Costello, R. E.; Mehrkar, A.; Bacon, S.; Goldacre, B.; Barley-McMullen, S.; Yameen, F.; Shah, P.; Natt, M.; Alder, Y.; Hulme, W.; Parker, E. P. K.; Eggo, R. M.

2026-04-13 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.04.09.26350495 medRxiv
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Electronic health records (EHRs) are a rich source of data which can be used to analyse health outcomes using computable phenotypes. With the approval of NHS England we used the OpenSAFELY secure analytics platform to design and assess phenotypes to classify three key respiratory viruses - respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza, and COVID-19 - in English coded health data between September 2016 and August 2024. We compared specific and sensitive phenotypes to one another and to publicly available surveillance data. Cases from both phenotypes showed similar seasonal patterns to surveillance data. Sensitive phenotypes led to increased risk of misclassification than specific phenotypes for mild cases. For severe cases the risk of misclassification was higher in infants than for older adults, irrespective of the phenotype used. The phenotypes presented here offer a solution to classifying respiratory viruses from coded health records in the absence of testing information.

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Dengue risk perception and public preferences for vector control in Italy and France: utility and regret-based choice experiments

Andrei, F.; Tizzoni, M.; Veltri, G. A.

2026-04-11 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.10.26350604 medRxiv
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Background: Dengue is rapidly emerging in parts of Europe. How households value vector control attributes, and whether inferences depend on decision models or message framing, is unclear. Methods: We conducted a split-ballot online experiment among adults in Italy and France, as well as a hotspot subsample from Marche, Italy. National samples included 1,505 respondents in Italy and 1,501 in France; 183 respondents were recruited in Marche. Participants were randomised to a discrete choice experiment (random utility maximisation) or a regret-based choice experiment (random regret minimisation) and to one of three pre-task messages (control, loss aversion, community values). Each respondent completed 12 choice tasks comparing two dengue control programmes and an opt-out. We estimated mixed logit and mixed random-regret models with random parameters and treatment effects. Results: Across frameworks, nearby cases and high mosquito prevalence were the dominant drivers of programme uptake, whereas cost and operational burden were secondary. In pooled analyses, loss-aversion messaging increased the weight on high mosquito prevalence in both models (from 0.483 to 0.547 in the utility model; from 0.478 to 0.557 in the regret model). Cost effects were small nationally but larger in the hotspot subsample. Conclusions: Risk salience dominates preferences for dengue vector control in these European settings. Random utility and random regret models yield consistent rankings of attributes but differ in behavioural interpretation and some secondary effects; messaging effects were modest and context dependent.

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Invasive cervical cancers after an HPV-negative test: insights from screening histories

Hassan, S. S.; Nordqvist-Kleppe, S.; Asinger, N.; Wang, J.; Dillner, J.; Arroyo Muhr, L. S.

2026-04-13 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.11.26350679 medRxiv
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Human papillomavirus (HPV) testing is the primary method for cervical cancer screening, and a negative HPV test is associated with a very low subsequent risk of invasive cancer. Nevertheless, a small number of cervical cancers are diagnosed following an HPV-negative testing result, posing challenges within HPV-based screening pathways. Using nationwide Swedish registry data of HPV testing, we identified women diagnosed with invasive cervical cancer between 2019 and 2024 and reconstructed HPV testing histories from the National Cervical Screening Registry (NKCx). The most recent HPV test prior to diagnosis was defined as the index test, and longitudinal HPV testing trajectories were classified among women with an HPV-negative index test. Of 3,000 women diagnosed with invasive cancer, 243 (8.1%) had an HPV-negative index test. These women were older at diagnosis and more frequently diagnosed at advanced stages compared with women with an HPV-positive index test. Most HPV-negative index tests (66.3%) were performed in the peri-diagnostic period (+/- 30 days). Among women with an HPV-negative index test, 52.7% (128/243) had no prior HPV testing recorded, while the remainder had consistently HPV-negative histories (33.3%, 83/243) or evidence of prior HPV positivity before the index negative test (14%, 32/243). Possible recurrent HPV positivity following an intervening negative test was rare (0.4%, 1/243). HPV-negative screening results preceding invasive cancer reflect heterogeneous screening histories and cannot be explained solely by test failure. Findings highlighting the importance of reaching women earlier in screening programs and show that fluctuating HPV detectability is rare.

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RNase HII-assisted amplification (RHAM) for rapid point-of-care monkeypox detection

Kamhieh-Milz, J.; Kamhieh-Milz, S.; Schwarz, F.; Michel, J.; Nitsche, A.; Puyskens, A.

2026-04-02 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.04.01.26349928 medRxiv
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Mpox poses an ongoing global public health threat, with case numbers rising beyond traditionally endemic regions in Central and Western Africa. Rapid detection of the causative agent, the Monkeypox virus (MPXV), is critical for outbreak control, yet laboratory infrastructure and trained personnel remain scarce in many affected areas. Point-of-care molecular diagnostics offer a practical solution by enabling timely testing without specialized equipment or elaborate nucleic acid extraction. We evaluated the performance of an extraction-free RNase HII-assisted amplification (RHAM) assay for MPXV detection by Pluslife Biotech, a novel isothermal amplification technology providing results in under 30 minutes. The Pluslife RHAM test demonstrated pan-MPXV clade reactivity, detecting all four MPXV clades (Ia, Ib, IIa, IIb) with high analytical sensitivity and no cross-reactivity to other poxviruses or other clinically relevant pathogens. The assay proved compatible with diverse clinical specimen types, including lesion swabs, oropharyngeal swabs, rectal swabs, urine, semen, and wound exudate. As part of routine diagnostics at the German Consultant Laboratory for Poxviruses, in a comprehensive evaluation of 206 clinical specimens against diagnostic real-time PCR, the Pluslife RHAM test achieved a diagnostic sensitivity of 94.2% (95% CI: 85.8-98.4%) and a specificity of 100% (95% CI: 97.3-100%). Notably, samples with higher viral loads (Ct <30) showed 100% sensitivity. Time-to-result correlated significantly with viral load, enabling faster diagnosis in high-viral-load cases. The Pluslife RHAM test represents a practical, sensitive, and rapid point-of-care solution for MPXV detection in resource-limited settings, combining strong analytical performance with operational simplicity to support timely outbreak response and clinical decision-making.

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Assessing the impact of a gender-neutral approach to HPV vaccination on vaccination coverage for nine-year-old girls in Cameroon: a retrospective, cross-sectional study

Griffith, B. C.; Iliassu, S.; Mbanga, C.; Ngenge, B. M.; Patel, S.; Graves, J. C.; Singh, N.; Ndoula, S.; Njoh, A. A.; Gisele, E.; Mngemane, S.; Ajayi, T.; Zultak, L. A.; Saidu, Y.

2026-04-11 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.09.26350560 medRxiv
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Cameroon introduced Human papilloma virus vaccine (HPVV) into the routine immunization schedule in October 2020. By the end of 2022, coverage remained low. To increase coverage, Cameroon switched to a country-wide, gender-neutral vaccination (GNV) approach in 2023, coupled with a revamped delivery strategy consisting of Community Dialogues (CDs) and Periodic Intensification of Routine Immunization (PIRIs) activities in selected health districts (HDs). We assessed the impact of these programmatic changes, notably the GNV approach, on HPVV coverage. This retrospective, cross-sectional study measured the effect of GNV and CDs + PIRIs on HPVV coverage among 9-year-old girls in Cameroon (2022-2023). Data on HPVV coverage from all 203 HDs were extracted from DHIS2, and coverage was calculated at the HD level, based on the estimated population eligible of 9-year-old girls. Descriptive statistics and multiple regression models were employed to assess the impact of GNV on vaccination coverage while adjusting for CDs + PIRIs and urban/rural status. In 2023, of the 203 HDs, 115 (56.7%) conducted GNV only, 74 (36.5%) implemented GNV & CDs + PIRIs, and 75.9% (154) were classified as rural. Among age-eligible girls, there was an overall increase in HPV vaccination coverage, with coverage rising 39.2 percentage points from 2022 to 2023. Following multiple linear regression, there was a significant increase in HPVV coverage in HDs with GNV & CDs + PIRIs compared to those with no GNV and no CDs + PIRIs ({beta}:55.5%, 95%CI: 38.7, 72.3, p=0.000). Furthermore, there was a significant increase in HPVV coverage in HDs with GNV only compared to those with no GNV or no CDs + PIRIs ({beta}:28.7%, 95%CI: 12.5, 45.0 p=0.001). Overall, the GNV approach increased HPVV coverage for girls significantly, particularly when implemented alongside CDs + PIRIs.

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Streptococcus agalactiae, a frequent but not so well-known cause of bone and joint infections: a Multicentric observational study 2014-23

Jamard, S.; Le Moal, g.; Plouzeau-Jayle, c.; Arvieux, C.; Ressier, S.; Lecomte, r.; Corvec, S.; Ansart, S.; Lamoureux, C.; Abgueguen, P.; Chenouard, R.; Lartigue, M. F.; Lemaignen, A.

2026-03-31 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.03.30.26349534 medRxiv
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Abstract Introduction: Streptococcus is the second genus involved in bone and joint infections (BJIs) after Staphylococcus. Streptococcus agalactiae is the predominant Streptococcus species implicated in BJIs. However, unlike Staphylococcus-related BJIs, data on S. agalactiae infections remain scarce. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study from the West Region cohort of the CRIOAc registry among six university hospitals including all microbiologically confirmed streptococcal BJI in adults between 2014 and 2023. Results: 1454 patients were included, with a median age of 67 years and 65% male. S. agalactiae was the predominant streptococcal species involved 423/1454(29%). The most prevalent comorbidities identified were obesity (378/1454;26%) and diabetes mellitus (343/1454;24%). Prosthetic joint infections (PJIs) were the most common (653/1454;45%), although diabetic foot osteitis was less prevalent overall, it was significantly more associated with S. agalactiae infections (48/423;11% versus 70/1031;7%, p=0.05). S. agalactiae BJIs were more frequently lower-limb infections and chronic infections (240/423;57% versus 502/1031;49%, p=0.04). Half of the cohort had a polymicrobial infection and were slightly more frequent with S. agalactiae BJIs (235/423;56% versus 498/1031;48%, p=0.1). These results were consistent with a sensitivity analysis excluding diabetic foot related osteitis. Logistic regression analysis identified arteriopathy (OR: 4.16; IC95:1.64-11.24, p=0.003), and obesity (OR: 2.57; IC95: 1.41-4.78, p=0.002) as specific risk factors for S. agalactiae BJIs. Conclusion: S. agalactiae emerges as a prominent and distinct pathogen in complex streptococcal BJIs, with specific risk factors such as arteriopathy, obesity and diabetes mellitus, and more chronic infections.

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Estimating the mpox vaccine uptake among MSM and modelling the potential of future vaccination campaigns in the EU/EEA

Prasse, B.; Hansson, D.; Aphami, L.; Jonas, K. J.; Borrel Pique, J.; Andrianou, X.; Pharris, A.; Plachouras, D.; Schmidt, A. J.; Nerlander, L.

2026-04-18 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.16.26350851 medRxiv
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In October 2025, mpox virus clade I infections have been detected among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the EU/EEA, suggesting local transmission in MSM sexual networks. Given the large outbreak of mpox among MSM in 2022 and the uncertain transmission parameters of clade I in the European context, clade I poses a public health concern to the EU/EEA. This work assesses the potential effect of increasing the mpox vaccine uptake among MSM via two contributions. First, building on the European MSM and Trans Persons Internet Survey 2024, we estimate the mpox vaccine uptake among MSM as well as the proportion who are unvaccinated but willing to get vaccinated for 28 countries in the EU/EEA. Specifically, we fit Bayesian mixed-effects models for the vaccine and recovery status of an individual depending on their number of sexual partners and country. Second, we develop a susceptible-infectious-recovered model on a sexual contact network to estimate the reduction of the reproduction number if vaccines are provided to MSM who are willing to get vaccinated. Our results suggest a substantial willingness for mpox vaccination among MSM if mpox cases increase and a large reduction of the effective reproduction number if this willingness is met. These findings highlight a large potential of increasing mpox vaccine uptake among MSM and preventing future mpox outbreaks in the EU/EEA.

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A multicopy transposase-targeted qPCR assay for highly sensitive diagnosis of scrub typhus

Kansuwan, M.; Tapaopong, P.; Anakerit, S.; Chotirat, S.; Tran, B. T.; Charunwatthana, P.; Wattanagoon, Y.; Thawornkuno, C.; Leaungwutiwong, P.; Ahantarig, A.; Nguitragool, W.

2026-04-02 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.04.01.26349932 medRxiv
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Objectives: Scrub typhus, caused by the bacterium Orientia tsutsugamushi, is frequently underdiagnosed due to its non-specific clinical presentation and the frequent absence of eschar. Most molecular diagnostic assays target single-copy genes of O. tsutsugamushi, which can limit diagnostic sensitivity. We aimed to develop an ultra-sensitive quantitative PCR (qPCR) assay targeting a highly repetitive element in O. tsutsugamushi genome. Methodology: We developed a SYBR Green-based qPCR assay (TranScrub) targeting a multicopy transposase gene of O. tsutsugamushi and compared its performance with assays targeting the 56kDa (single-copy) and traD (multicopy) genes. Diagnostic performance was evaluated using clinical specimens and a panel of blood-borne pathogens. The limit of detection (LOD) was estimated using serial dilutions of quantified template. The assay was further applied to dried blood spot (DBS) samples from patients with acute febrile illness of unknown aetiology, with positives confirmed by Oxford Nanopore amplicon sequencing. Results: Targeting the multicopy transposase gene enabled highly sensitive detection of O. tsutsugamushi, outperforming the conventional 56-kDa assay and matching the traD assay. TranScrub achieved a 91% sensitivity (29/32) and 100% specificity (77/77) using blood-derived DNA, with no cross-reactivity. The LOD was 0.024 genome equivalents/L. Among 81 DBS samples from acute febrile patients of unknown aetiology, 6 (7.5%) tested positive, all confirmed by sequencing. Conclusions: The transposase gene represents a novel target that improves molecular detection of scrub typhus. TranScrub enables sensitive and specific detection from both blood and DBS, supporting its use in clinical diagnosis and field surveillance.

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Data Resource Profile: EST-Health-30

Reisberg, S.; Oja, M.; Mooses, K.; Tamm, S.; Sild, A.; Talvik, H.-A.; Laur, S.; Kolde, R.; Vilo, J.

2026-04-24 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.21.26351087 medRxiv
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Background: The increasing availability of routinely collected health data offers new opportunities for population-level research, yet access to comprehensive, linked, and standardised datasets remains limited. We describe EST-Health-30, a large-scale, population-representative health data resource from Estonia. Methods: EST-Health-30 comprises a random 30% sample of the Estonian population (~500,000 individuals), with longitudinal data from 2012 to 2024 and annual updates planned through 2026. Individual-level records are linked across five nationwide databases, including electronic health records, health insurance claims, prescription data, cancer registry, and cause of death records. A privacy-preserving hashing approach ensures consistent cohort inclusion over time while maintaining pseudonymisation. All data are harmonised to the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership (OMOP) Common Data Model (version 5.4) using international standard vocabularies. Data quality was assessed using established OMOP-based validation frameworks. Results: The dataset contains rich multimodal information on diagnoses, procedures, laboratory measurements, prescriptions, free-text clinical notes, healthcare utilisation, and costs, with high population coverage and longitudinal depth. Data quality assessment showed high completeness and consistency, with 99.2% of applicable checks passing. The age-sex distribution closely reflects the national population, supporting representativeness, though coverage is marginally below the target 30% (29.2%), primarily attributable to recent immigrants without health system contact. The dataset enables construction of detailed clinical cohorts, analysis of disease trajectories, and evaluation of healthcare utilisation and outcomes across the life course. Conclusions: EST-Health-30 is a comprehensive, standardised, and population-representative real-world data resource that supports epidemiological, clinical, and methodological research. Its alignment with the OMOP CDM facilitates reproducible analytics and participation in international federated research networks, while secure access infrastructure ensures compliance with data protection regulations.

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Time to diagnosis among children and adolescents with cancer in Quebec, Canada: a population-based study

Mullen, C.; Barr, R. D.; Strumpf, E.; El-Zein, M.; Franco, E. L.; Malagon, T.

2026-04-13 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.09.26350491 medRxiv
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BackgroundTimely cancer diagnosis in children and adolescents is critical to improving outcomes, yet substantial variation in diagnostic intervals persists across cancer types and care settings. We aimed to quantify time to diagnosis and assess variations by patient, demographic, and system-level factors. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective population-based study of children and adolescents aged 0-19 years diagnosed with one of 12 common cancers between 2010 and 2022 in Quebec, Canada. The diagnostic interval was defined as the time from first cancer-related healthcare encounter to diagnosis. We calculated medians and interquartile ranges (IQR) overall and by cancer type and used multivariable quantile regression to identify factors associated with time to diagnosis at the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles. ResultsAmong 2,927 individuals with cancer, diagnostic intervals varied by cancer type and age. Median intervals were longest for carcinomas (100 days; IQR 33-192) and shortest for leukemias (8 days; IQR 3-44). Compared with children living in Montreal, living in regional areas and other large urban centres was associated with longer 50th and 75th percentiles of time to diagnosis for hepatic and central nervous system (CNS) tumours. Diagnostic intervals were shorter in the post-pandemic period (2020-2022) across several cancer sites, with CNS tumours showing reductions across all quantiles. InterpretationDiagnostic timeliness differed by cancer type, age, and rurality, but not by sex, material, or social deprivation. The shorter diagnostic intervals observed in the post-pandemic period suggest that pandemic-related changes in care pathways may have expedited diagnosis for some cancers.

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Understanding inequalities in COVID-19 vaccination between migrants and non-migrants in Germany: The role of psychological factors of vaccine behaviour

Bartig, S.; Siegert, M.; Hoevener, C.; Michalski, N.

2026-04-17 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.15.26350844 medRxiv
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Background: Understanding the underlying mechanisms for differences in vaccine uptake between migrants and non-migrants is crucial in order to design targeted interventions encouraging vaccination and to ensure vaccine-related equity. Therefore, this study examined to what extent migration-related disparities in COVID-19 vaccination were associated with psychological factors, based on the established 5C model of vaccine behaviour (Confidence, Complacency, Constraints, Calculation, Collective Responsibility). Methods: Data were obtained from the German study "Corona Monitoring Nationwide - Wave 2" (RKI-SOEP-2 study), which was carried out between November 2021 and March 2022. The association between COVID-19 vaccination and migration status, while considering the psychological factors, was investigated using multivariable binary logistic regressions. A decomposition analysis (Karlson-Holm-Breen method) was conducted to examine the extent to which migration-related disparities in vaccine uptake were associated with the psychological factors of the 5C framework. Results: Migrants were less likely to be vaccinated against COVID-19 compared to non-migrants, especially participants from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Our decomposition showed that almost two-thirds of the disparities in COVID-19 vaccine uptake between migrants and non-migrants were associated with the psychological factors (first-generation: 61.2%, second-generation: 64.2%). Confidence in safety of the vaccine was the most relevant factor in the 5C framework. Furthermore, the results highlighted the importance of a differentiated analysis regarding country of origin: While the 5C model accounted for only 19.4% of the difference between participants from the MENA region and non-migrants, the proportion for participants from Eastern Europe was 73.5%, suggesting that the underlying mechanisms for the lower uptake in the MENA group need further investigation. Conclusions: Overall, migration-related disparities in COVID-19 vaccination were significantly associated with differences in psychological factors of vaccine behaviour. To increase vaccine acceptance within the heterogeneous group of migrants in general, tailored and proactive health communication interventions are needed.

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Evaluation of a multiplexed tiling PCR scheme for whole-genome amplification of hepatitis B virus using Oxford Nanopore sequencing

Brate, J.; Grande, E. G.; Pedersen, B. N.; Frengen, T. G.; Stene-Johansen, K.

2026-03-31 molecular biology 10.64898/2026.03.28.714721 medRxiv
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Here we evaluated the performance of a previously published tiling PCR primer scheme by Ringlander et al. (2022) for whole-genome amplification of Hepatitis B virus (HBV) in combination with Oxford Nanopore sequencing. The primer set originally developed for Ion Torrent sequencing was adapted by removing platform-specific adapters and tested using clinical serum or plasma samples submitted for routine HBV genotyping and resistance testing. Two multiplexing strategies were compared: a single PCR pool containing all primers and a two-pool strategy with non-overlapping amplicons. Sequencing reads were processed using a Nanopore analysis pipeline, and genome coverage and amplicon performance were compared across samples spanning a wide Ct range and representing HBV genotypes A-E. Across all samples, the median genome coverage was approximately 50%, although recovery varied widely, ranging from complete failure to nearly full genomes. Combining all primers into a single PCR reaction, or separating overlapping amplicons into different reactions, had little overall impact on genome recovery, and no consistent differences between the two pooling strategies were observed. In contrast, amplification efficiency differed markedly between individual amplicons. Amplicons 1-5 generally produced higher sequencing depth, whereas amplicons 6-10 frequently showed low coverage and contributed to incomplete genome recovery. Genome coverage was strongly associated with Ct values, with higher coverage observed in samples with lower Ct values, while coverage was broadly similar across genotypes. These results demonstrate that the Ringlander et al. primer scheme can be adapted for multiplex PCR and Nanopore sequencing of HBV, but uneven amplicon performance limits consistent full-genome recovery and highlights the need for further optimization of HBV tiling PCR designs.