eClinicalMedicine

Background In adults, cold-attributable mortality exceeds heat-attributable mortality roughly 17-fold. Child-specific evidence has begun to emerge only recently - a nationwide Brazilian case-crossover study located the minimum mortality temperature (MMT) for under-five deaths, and a 56-country survey-based analysis linked monthly temperature anomalies to under-five mortality - but no multi-country, climate-zone-resolved estimate of the childhood respiratory-infection MMT exists, and whether temperature variability is independently associated with childhood respiratory mortality at the global scale is unknown. We quantified both. Methods We combined Global Burden of Disease 2023 mortality estimates, lower respiratory infection (LRI) deaths at ages 0-19 years and asthma deaths at ages 0-24 years, 171 countries, 1990-2023 - with 0.5 deg monthly land temperature and diurnal temperature range (DTR) fields from C-LSAT/C-LDTR (1901-2023). Four exposure dimensions (annual mean, DTR, seasonal amplitude, interannual variability) entered two-way fixed-effects models with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors. A quadratic term in mean temperature located the MMT, with percentile confidence intervals from a 300-replication country-cluster bootstrap. Future-exposure leads, country-level detrending, and permutation tests assessed contemporaneous causality, applied to both the linear coefficients and the quadratic term generating the MMT; national pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV3) coverage and ambient PM2.5 exposure series were added as time-varying mechanistic covariates. Results The childhood LRI MMT was 17.1 C (95% CI 14.7-19.8), the 36th percentile of the annual-temperature distribution; zone estimates were 24.7 C in tropical and 15.8 C in subtropical countries, with weak temperate and no subarctic identification. The quadratic term underpinning the MMT, however, failed both falsification checks - future temperatures reproduced the U-shape and country-level detrending erased it - so these MMT values describe a trend-level geographic pattern of the annual construct rather than a contemporaneous dose-response. Interannual temperature variability was positively associated with LRI (+0.278, 95% CI 0.102-0.454; p = 0.002) and asthma mortality (+0.836, 95% CI 0.447-1.226; p = 2.6 x 10^-5) per 1 C, but future-exposure models returned nearly identical significant coefficients and detrending erased significance, supporting only a trend-level association; adjustment for national PCV3 coverage and PM2.5 exposure left these estimates essentially unchanged. Annual mean temperature was likewise inversely associated with both outcomes at the trend level; DTR and seasonal amplitude showed no independent within-country effects. Conclusions This study provides the first multi-country, climate-zone-resolved geography of the optimal temperature for childhood respiratory survival, spanning 171 countries; because the underlying quadratic association is trend-level, the estimates are directional. The observed variability-mortality associations are trend-level signals rather than contemporaneous causal evidence; daily-scale, child-specific designs are required to determine whether short-term thermal variability affects paediatric respiratory mortality.

Introduction Hearing loss (HL) affects over 1{middle dot}5 billion people globally and India shares a disproportionately high burden including Disabling Hearing Loss (DHL). HL affects an Individual socio-economically, but there are limited studies on the broader societal economic consequences of HL in India.Methods Using Cost-of-Illness (COI) approach, we studied the societal economic burden of HL in India. This study uses epidemiological and macroeconomic data and modelling to estimate the loss of Gross National Income (GNI) due to HL and DHL across three economic pathways. Uncertainty is evaluated using deterministic and Probabilistic Sensitivity Analyses (PSA).Results The model estimates that there are in India, 289 million and 85{middle dot}9 million people with HL and DHL respectively. Direct Loss of GNI and Indirect Loss of GNI (Caregiver burden) are estimated as INR 4,648{middle dot}4 billion (USD 55{middle dot}6 billion) and INR 3,268 billion (USD 39 billion) respectively. The Loss of GNI due to Low Education amongst those with HL is estimated as INR 1,041{middle dot}9 billion (USD 12{middle dot}45 billion).Discussion Economic burden of HL is presented across three pathways with Direct Loss of GNI due to DHL being the greatest. It also presents age stratified caregiver economic burden. The findings of the study help in estimating similar cost pathways, advocacy, and policy decisions towards reducing HL prevalence in India and LMICs. This study also highlights the need for India specific estimations related to the HL attributable low education, state-wise disaggregates, and prevalence studies. Funding This study has not received any funding.

Background: Prolonged mechanical ventilation is associated with inspiratory muscle weakness and difficulty weaning from respiratory support. While decades of research have demonstrated that inspiratory strength training (IST) is beneficial in adult critical care populations, the literature on its use in pediatric cardiac critical care remains limited. We sought to evaluate the feasibility, safety, and physiologic response to IST in children in the pediatric cardiac intensive care unit (PCICU). Methods and Results: We performed a single-center retrospective cohort study of children with congenital heart disease referred for IST between January 2015 and August 2021. Feasibility was defined as completion of [≥]1 IST session following referral. Safety outcomes included physiologic events documented during IST sessions. Changes in maximal inspiratory pressure (MIP) were assessed in patients who completed [≥]2 IST sessions. Of 105 eligible patients, 93 (89%) successfully completed at least 1 IST session. Monitoring events were reviewed across 389 IST sessions and included pre-oxygenation (62%), desaturations (13%), bradycardia (7%), and hypertension (2%). All events were transient and did not require escalation of care. 84% of patients were successfully liberated from mechanical ventilation and required a median of 2 (IQR 1-4) sessions of IST. Among patients completing [≥]2 IST sessions, MIP improved signicantly over time (p>0.0001). Improvements were observed in both patients who did and did not wean from mechanical ventilation. Patients who failed to wean from mechanical ventilation had longer ventilator exposure prior to IST initiation and were more sedated at the outset of IST. Conclusions: IST was feasible and well tolerated in this medically complex PCICU cohort. High completion rates and improvements in MIP support the use of IST as a clinically deliverable intervention that can produce measurable improvements in inspiratory muscle strength during critical illness.

Importance: Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) produce diverse immune toxicities, but whether checkpoint blockade also modifies associations between other drugs and adverse events is poorly understood. Objective: To define ICI-associated toxicity organization and determine whether drug-associated adverse events and onset vary with ICI exposure and checkpoint pathway. Design and Setting: Cross-sectional analysis of deduplicated FAERS reports from 2016 through 2025; analyses performed in 2026. Participants: Among 13,701,106 deduplicated reports, 2,365,269 were cancer associated and 256,940 contained an ICI. Median age among cancer reports with observed age was 66 years (IQR, 56-75 years); 1,031,999 (43.6%) were female and 1,003,154 (42.4%) were male. Exposures: ICI exposure in any reported drug role, individual primary-suspect drugs, and checkpoint-pathway exposure. Main Outcomes and Measures: Reporting odds ratios (ORs), cross-organ adverse-event communities, adjusted primary-suspect drug x ICI interaction ORs for Stevens-Johnson syndrome/toxic epidermal necrolysis (SJS/TEN), drug reaction with eosinophilia and systemic symptoms (DRESS), acute generalized exanthematous pustulosis (AGEP), interstitial nephritis, drug-induced liver injury (DILI), and vomiting (VOM), and accelerated failure-time model time ratios for documented onset. Results: Of 3001 eligible Preferred Terms in cancer-associated reports, 2091 differed at a false discovery rate (FDR) less than .05. Four cross-organ toxicity communities were identified. Of 138 eligible drug-phenotype pairs, 65 had FDR-significant interactions, including moxifloxacin-SJS/TEN amplification (interaction OR, 101.72; 95% CI, 39.11-264.55), enfortumab vedotin-SJS/TEN attenuation (interaction OR, 0.17; 95% CI, 0.13-0.23), and omeprazole-interstitial nephritis amplification (interaction OR, 10.35; 95% CI, 7.62-14.05). Among 60,324 reports contributing to temporal analyses, ICI exposure was associated with longer adjusted documented time to onset for 5 of 6 phenotypes (time ratios, 1.37-1.59) but not AGEP (time ratio, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.67-1.46). Temporal associations also differed across checkpoint pathways. Conclusions and Relevance: ICIs were associated with a structured cross-organ toxicity landscape, phenotype-specific modification of drug-associated adverse events, and distinct temporal patterns across checkpoint pathways. These findings support checkpoint blockade as a modifier of drug-associated toxicity and motivate longitudinal and mechanistic validation.

Purpose Despite the high documented prevalence of hunger and poor mental health in adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in South Africa, this relationship remains understudied, with existing studies limited by their cross-sectional designs. This longitudinal study aimed to identify the association of hunger trajectories with anxiety and depressive symptoms, and hope in AGYW. Methods We used secondary data from the HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) -068 conducted in rural Agincourt, South Africa. Complete data from 1779 AGYW collected at baseline (2011/12) and three annual follow-up visits were used. Hunger trajectories, measured using the Household Hunger Scale, were estimated via Group-Based Trajectory Modelling. Self-reported incident anxiety and depressive symptoms and hope were assessed based on AGYWs last two follow-up visits. Covariate adjusted modified Poisson regression models estimated the association between hunger trajectories and incident anxiety symptoms, incident depressive symptoms, and hope. Results Moderate-severe hunger was prevalent in 11.0%, 10.8%, and 6.0% of the households at baseline, follow-up 1, and 2, respectively. Incident anxiety symptoms were reported by 4.5%, incident depressive symptoms by 20.0% and hopelessness by 52.8% of the AGYW. Two hunger trajectories were identified- no hunger (82%) and marginal hunger (18%). Hunger trajectories were not associated with incident anxiety symptoms [RR:1.09, 95% CI: 0.55, 2.18], incident depressive symptoms [RR: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.72, 1.33] nor hope [RR: 1.00; 95% CI: 0.81, 1.23] in AGYW. Conclusion Better understanding of the factors that promote resiliency and mental health of AGYW in this setting is warranted to inform the design of interventions.

Introduction: Control of tuberculosis (TB) in children remains a major challenge globally. There is growing recognition that children with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) are a high-risk population for TB, but the global burden of TB in this group has never been comprehensively quantified. Methods: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the prevalence of TB among children with SAM. Following PRISMA guidelines, we searched PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and WHO Global Index Medicus from database inception to June 15, 2026. We included studies reporting TB among systematically sampled cohorts of children <15 years with SAM as defined by the World Health Organization. Methodological study quality was assessed with adapted versions of the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale or the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal checklist. Pooled TB prevalence was calculated using a random-effects model with predefined stratification of studies by geographic region, national TB incidence, and study quality. We also conducted subgroup analyses by age, sex, HIV status, SAM type, and TB exposure. Results: We included 73 studies comprising 33,869 children with SAM across 15 countries, predominantly from sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, and predominantly reporting on hospitalized children. The pooled TB prevalence was 13% (95% CI: 11-16%), but there was substantial heterogeneity (I2=98%). Studies conducted in Southern Africa had the highest pooled TB prevalence (36%, 95% CI: 19-56%) compared to other regions (p<0.01). Pooled TB prevalence was higher in those with history of TB household exposure compared to those without (74% vs. 17%, p=0.01). Conclusions: Approximately one in eight children hospitalized with SAM have TB, greatest among children with history of TB exposure and those in Southern Africa. These findings highlight opportunities for improved early TB diagnosis and routine, integrated TB screening within hospital-based SAM care pathways.

Background Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) are widely prescribed for type 2 diabetes and obesity, yet their neuropsychiatric safety profile remains incompletely characterized. We aimed to systematically evaluate neuro-adverse event (AE) signals for six GLP-1RAs and to validate key findings using population-based data. Methods We conducted disproportionality analysis of FAERS data for semaglutide, liraglutide, dulaglutide, tirzepatide, exenatide, and lixisenatide. RORs were calculated for 93 predefined neuro-AE MedDRA PTs across 11 neurological categories. External validation used NHANES 2013-2018 (n=17,057; 70 GLP-1RA users) with survey-weighted regression. Results We identified 41 significant neuro-AE signals. Semaglutide showed the strongest neuromuscular signal, muscle atrophy (ROR 3.94; 95%CI 3.42-4.54), corroborated by tirzepatide (ROR 2.35; 95%CI 2.04-2.71). Exenatide generated the highest psychiatric signal: nervousness (ROR 4.03; 95%CI 3.70-4.40). NHANES confirmed higher depression odds (OR 2.05; 95%CI 1.32-3.19; P=0.001) and reduced sleep hours (beta -0.35; P=0.033). Conclusions GLP-1RAs carry multiple neuropsychiatric safety signals, including muscle atrophy as a potential class effect and depression risk corroborated by population-level data. These findings support heightened clinical monitoring.

Background: Gaps in health financing drive delayed diagnosis, catastrophic health expenditure, treatment discontinuation, and excess mortality and morbidity in breast cancer, effects compounded by gender inequalities that shape household resource allocation, care-seeking behaviour, and spending decisions for conditions disproportionately affecting women. Despite this, the economic burden of breast cancer and the gender dynamics that mediate it remain poorly characterised in middle-income country settings. This study examines the economic burden of breast cancer in India and Kenya and assesses how gender inequalities shape treatment decision-making, health outcomes, and caregiving experiences. Methods: This will be a mixed-methods, longitudinal, prospective cohort study of newly diagnosed breast cancer patients, with a health economics and gender analysis. Participants will be surveyed twice, at baseline and 6-months post treatment commencement either in person or by phone. A sub-sample of participants and their caregivers will participate in semi-structured interviews to explore household economic consequences of treatment, treatment-seeking decisions, and the gendered dimensions of both. Quantitative data will be analysed using descriptive statistics and regression modelling to identify determinants of catastrophic health expenditure and economic burden. Thematic analysis will be conducted and triangulated with quantitative findings to provide a comprehensive account of financial and gendered impacts across both settings. Discussion: The study will generate comparative evidence on the economic burden of breast cancer across two developing health system contexts. Findings will inform priority setting and benefit package design by identifying the drivers of economic burden and treatment discontinuation in these contexts, and making visible the household and caregiving costs that financing policy rarely captures.

Background: Invasive fungal infection (IFI) is well recognised in children with acute leukaemia and allogeneic haematopoietic stem-cell transplantation but is poorly characterised in children with brain tumours. Children receiving intensive therapy for embryonal brain tumours (EBTs) have multiple potential risk exposures including corticosteroids, central venous access, neurosurgical devices, mucosal injury and myelosuppressive chemotherapy with, in selected protocols, autologous stem-cell rescue. Methods: We performed a single-centre retrospective cohort study of children aged 0-18 years treated for EBTs between 2015-2025. IFIs were classified as proven, probable, possible, or modified possible using EORTC/MSGERC and TERIFIC criteria. Clinical characteristics, treatment exposures, timing, microbiology and outcomes were described. IFI prevalence was calculated using exact binomial confidence intervals. Exploratory Cox proportional hazards analyses assessed associations with clinical and treatment factors. Results: Seventy-seven patients were included. Fourteen patients experienced 15 IFI episodes, giving a patient-level IFI prevalence of 18.2% (95% CI, 10.3-28.6%). Proven or probable IFI occurred in seven patients (9.1%; 95% CI, 3.7-17.8%). Nine episodes had microbiological evidence. Non-mould pathogens predominated, accounting for six of nine identified pathogens. Treatment on ACNS0334/ACNS0333 was associated with a lower hazard of proven/probable IFI compared with SJMB12 (HR 0.062; 95% CI, 0.002-0.78; p=0.031). Two patients had chemotherapy delays exceeding one month, one had persistent infection at 12 months; no deaths were directly attributed to IFI. Three patients received antifungal prophylaxis. Conclusion: Rates of IFI following intensive embryonal brain tumour therapy were comparable to those in other high-risk oncology populations. Local consideration of antifungal prophylaxis is warranted.

Introduction Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is an important cause of respiratory disease in older adults and adults with chronic medical conditions, contributing substantially to the healthcare burden in Italy. The availability of effective RSV vaccines provides an opportunity to reduce RSV-related morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs in populations at high risk of severe disease. This study evaluates the potential public health impact and cost-effectiveness of vaccination using mRNA-1345 administered as a single dose compared with no vaccination in Italian high-risk adults aged 60-74 years and all adults aged [&ge;]75 years. Methods A static decision-analytic model was developed to project clinical and economic outcomes over a 5-year time horizon. Economic outcomes were evaluated from the Italian National Health Service (Servizio Sanitario Nazionale, SSN) perspective. Model inputs were informed by the most recent Italian epidemiological, clinical, and economic evidence, supplemented by published international data when necessary. Deterministic, probabilistic, and scenario analyses were conducted to assess the impact of uncertainty in model inputs and assumptions on the study results. Results Vaccination with mRNA-1345 in high-risk adults aged 60-74 years and all adults aged [&ge;]75 years was projected to avert over 19,800 hospitalizations, 4,000 emergency department visits, 381,000 outpatient visits, 6,000 RSV-attributable deaths, and 212,000 antibiotic prescriptions compared with no vaccination over a 5-year period. The total incremental cost of {euro}1,143 million and the additional 47,477 QALYs gained resulted in an ICER of {euro}24,078, which was below the commonly referenced willingness to-pay range of {euro}33,000-40,000 per QALY gained. Sensitivity analyses confirmed robustness of the analysis results. Conclusions Vaccination with mRNA-1345 is a cost-effective strategy for the prevention of RSV in high-risk adults aged 60-74 years and all adults [&ge;]75 years in Italy and has the potential to provide substantial public health benefits.

Background: Curable sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are associated with adverse birth outcomes, yet little cost-effectiveness evidence guides antenatal STI screening policy in high-burden settings. We conducted a cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analysis of the Philani Ndiphile trial in South Africa, comparing One-Time and Two-Time antenatal screening for C. trachomatis, N. gonorrhoeae, and T. vaginalis with standard syndromic management. Methods: A decision-analytic model from the provider perspective simulated costs and outcomes for pregnant women and infants. Costs included diagnostics, treatment, and neonatal hospitalisation for a primary composite outcome of preterm birth and/or low birthweight and its components (secondary trial outcomes). Modelled outcomes included incremental cost (US$) per composite (preterm birth and/or low birthweight) case, per component case and per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. The analysis captured infant outcomes in the first year. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess parameter uncertainty and robustness of results. Results: Screening for C. trachomatis, N. gonorrhoeae, and T. vaginalis twice during pregnancy was not cost-effective for preventing the primary composite outcome, nor for preventing low birthweight alone. However, two-time screening was cost-saving for preventing preterm birth alone, averting more DALYs and thereby yielding better health outcomes while reducing healthcare costs compared with syndromic management. One-time screening was not cost-effective for preventing any outcome. Conclusions: Repeat antenatal screening for C. trachomatis, N. gonorrhoeae, and T. vaginalis has the potential to prevent preterm births while reducing healthcare costs in high-burden settings. These findings support further research to confirm the clinical effectiveness of repeat screening and to evaluate longer-term health and economic impacts.

South Asian communities in the UK experience disproportionate maternal and child health inequalities linked to non-recommended infant feeding practices, limited health literacy, and socioeconomic constraints. Participatory learning and action (PLA) is effective in low- and middle-income countries, but high-income evidence is scarce. This pilot assessed the feasibility of a community facilitator-led PLA intervention to improve infant feeding among South Asian families in East London. A three-arm pilot feasibility cluster randomised controlled trial (ISRCTN10234623) was conducted in Tower Hamlets and Newham, East London (May-September 2022), with 12 wards randomised 1:1:1 to face-to-face PLA, online PLA, or usual care. Multilingual community facilitators delivered eight biweekly sessions over 14 weeks. Feasibility outcomes were assessed against prespecified Go/Stop criteria; exploratory outcomes included child feeding behaviours (Children's Eating Behaviour Questionnaire, CEBQ), parental feeding style (Parental Feeding Style Questionnaire, PFSQ), and child BMI Z-scores. Of 263 enrolled participants, 261 had a recorded trial arm allocation; consent to the pilot feasibility study was 70.7% (186/263; 95% CI 65.0-75.9%) meeting the [&ge;]50% Go criterion. Attendance was 37% (Tower Hamlets 59%, Newham 29%), below the [&ge;]80% Go threshold. Six-month retention was 54.8% (Tower Hamlets 78%, Newham 48.5%; 95% CI 41.8-55.3%), triggering the Definite Stop criterion. Significant baseline imbalances included BMI Z-score (p = 0.005), ethnicity, borough, and education; no between-arm BMI differences were observed at follow-up (p = 0.249). CEBQ and PFSQ baseline completion was 24.5% and 23.0%, with no usable follow-up data. PLA Phases 3 and 4 were not completed by any group; all participants providing feedback reported it acceptable. Recruitment was feasible and the intervention acceptable, but a Definite Stop criterion was triggered in Newham, no group completed the full PLA cycle, and outcome data were insufficient for evaluation. A definitive trial requires stratified randomisation, digitised multilingual data collection, participant reimbursement, and explicit PLA phase-completion criteria.

Despite known carcinogenic properties, indoor tanning remains popular among young adults and may contribute to early-onset melanoma. Our study aims to compare early-onset melanoma incidence by state availability of tanning beds. We analyzed population-based melanoma incidence data (2019-2023) from the National Program of Cancer Registries and calculated Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR) using verified state-level quintiles of tanning bed availability. Overall, in the Midwest/South regions, melanoma incidence increased with greater tanning-bed availability, from 8.7 cases per 100,000 population in Quintile 1 to 14.8 cases per 100,000 population in Quintile 5 (IRR = 1.69; CI = 1.65-1.74). No such relationship was found in the Northeast/West regions. In conclusion, we found that in Southern and Midwest states, increased availability of tanning beds was associated with higher early-onset melanoma in non-Hispanic White males and females, in both metro and non-metro counties. Policies which reduce tanning bed availability in high utilization regions may have potential to reduce early-onset melanoma.

The photic sneeze reflex (PSR), in which exposure to bright light triggers sneezing, is widely recognised but inconsistently defined and measured. We conducted the first systematic review and meta-analysis of PSR prevalence to synthesise the epidemiological evidence, assess methodological quality, and identify priorities for future research. We included 18 articles comprising 31 study groups and extracted prevalence estimates, study characteristics, ascertainment methods, and epidemiological information. Fifteen eligible study groups classified as healthy were included in the primary meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence was 22% (95% CI, 15%-29%), with extreme between-study heterogeneity (I2 = 99.3%). Reported prevalence estimates and associations with participant characteristics varied widely, and nearly all studies were judged to be at high risk of bias. The pooled estimate should therefore be interpreted as a descriptive summary of the available evidence rather than a precise estimate of population prevalence. Future studies require a standardised operational definition, representative sampling, transparent reporting, and reproducible methods for assessing light-triggered sneezing.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) continues to pose a major public health threat across Africa, yet available surveillance data remain highly fragmented across private, public, and academic sources. This study analysed continent-wide AMR surveillance patterns by integrating datasets from multiple independent repositories and visualising them through interactive Geographic Information System (GIS) dashboards. The objective was to generate an integrated evidence base that highlights resistance patterns, surveillance disparities, reporting gaps, and opportunities for improved AMR monitoring across Africa. Data were compiled from major private AMR surveillance programmes including Pfizers ATLAS, GSKs SOAR, Johnson & Johnsons DREAM, Venatorxs GEARS, and Shionogis SIDERO-WT covering the period 2004-2022. Public datasets from the WHO Global Antimicrobial Resistance and Use Surveillance System (GLASS) and the Fleming Funds Mapping Antimicrobial Resistance and Antimicrobial Use Partnership (MAAP) were incorporated for 2016-2020, together with published AMR studies conducted between 2010 and 2024. Datasets were harmonised to align key variables including bacterial species, isolate identifiers, antibiotics tested, surveillance source, geographical location, and categorical AMR outcomes while preserving the original structure of the contributing datasets. Interactive dashboards were developed using R Shiny to support spatial visualisation and dynamic analytical exploration of resistance patterns, temporal trends, species distribution, and country-level surveillance coverage. Descriptive analyses including means, standard deviations, medians, interquartile ranges (IQR), frequency distributions, Gini coefficients, Shannon entropy, Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), and Lorenz curves were used to assess inequality and concentration in country-level AMR reporting across surveillance systems. The integrated analyses revealed substantial heterogeneity and concentration in AMR surveillance reporting across Africa, reflecting major differences in surveillance intensity, laboratory infrastructure, reporting systems, and diagnostic capacity across countries. Private datasets demonstrated broader antibiotic panels and longer temporal coverage, whereas public datasets exhibited substantial gaps in country participation and pathogen-antibiotic representation. Published AMR studies additionally highlighted important surveillance information absent from formal surveillance databases. By integrating multiple streams of AMR evidence, this study demonstrates the value of interactive GIS dashboards as exploratory and updateable surveillance-support tools for improving visibility of fragmented AMR datasets, identifying surveillance disparities, supporting geographically informed interpretation of resistance trends, and strengthening future AMR surveillance harmonisation efforts across Africa.

Background and Objectives: Subjective cognitive decline (SCD), self-reported worsening confusion or memory over the past year, is a common early marker of cognitive concern with relevance for Alzheimer's disease prevention and population health. Population-based machine learning benchmarks that respect temporal drift in public health surveillance remain limited. We developed a reusable multi-language prediction and interpretability framework for SCD using Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) Cognitive Decline data. Methods: We analyzed pooled national (n = 298,944) and New York (n = 30,366) cohorts with chronological train (2015-2019), validation (national: 2020-2022; New York: 2020-2021), and locked test (2023-2024) splits. Nested LASSO identified stable predictors. Sixteen machine learning algorithms were compared under year-grouped cross-validation with SMOTE restricted to training folds. Four end-to-end Python/R pipelines (single-model or soft-voting) used validation-only isotonic calibration and Youden thresholding. Primary reporting pipelines were prespecified before test unlock (national: R tidymodels single-model; New York: Python single-model); algorithms within each pipeline were chosen by validation ROC-AUC. Post-hoc GLMs (national unweighted; New York design-weighted) and two training-only knowledge-graph layers supported interpretability. Results: Locked-test discrimination was consistent across implementations (ROC-AUC approximately 0.76-0.77). Prespecified pipelines achieved test ROC-AUC 0.770 (95% CI 0.767-0.773) nationally (R gradient boosting) and 0.762 (95% CI 0.746-0.777) in New York (Python AdaBoost). Soft-voting pipelines performed similarly (national 0.770; New York 0.757) and were treated as sensitivity benchmarks. Predicted probabilities were reasonably calibrated (Brier 0.118 nationally; 0.112 in New York), and higher scores among SCD-positive respondents persisted across survey years. Difficulty deciding, mental health, and functional health items ranked highest across permutation importance, SHAP, and GLMs. Respondents who reported no difficulty deciding (DECIDE = 2) had substantially lower odds of SCD than those who reported difficulty (DECIDE = 1; aOR approximately 0.13; FDR < 0.05). Training-only knowledge graphs likewise placed difficulty deciding nearest to SCD in both cohorts. Conclusions: A temporally locked, multi-pipeline BRFSS benchmark yields stable future-year SCD risk ranking, usable calibrated probability scores that remain separated by SCD status across survey years, and convergent interpretability signals. The open implementation supports reproducible surveillance-oriented machine learning for cognitive health.

Introduction Research demonstrates neurodevelopmental differences in children who are HIV-exposed, but uninfected (CHEU) compared to their peers born unexposed. CHEUs are at higher risk for prematurity and low birth weight, both known risk factors for developmental delays. Despite increasing evidence, HIV exposure remains underrecognised as a risk factor for poor development by policy-makers and early childhood development (ECD) programs. We trialed an ECD intervention for CHEUs based on the Nurturing Care Framework developed by WHO, UNICEF, and the World Bank to improve neurodevelopmental outcomes in this vulnerable population. Design We conducted a randomized controlled trial of an ECD intervention for mothers living with HIV and their children born HIV-exposed, aged six to 24 months, living in peri-urban Lusaka. The intervention was delivered through bi-weekly home visits over 18 months using the curriculum adapted from the Nurturing Care Framework. The curriculum addressed nutrition, maternal wellness, child health, developmental milestones, and interactive caregiving. Method The primary outcome was measured by the Malawi Developmental Assessment Tool (MDAT) at six and 18 months post enrollment, which assesses developmental scores via a context-validated, direct observation tool across four domains: gross motor, fine motor, language, and social development. Participants were also assessed at six, 12 and 18 months post enrollment using the Caregiver Reported Early Development Instrument (CREDI). MDAT assessors were blinded to the intervention and control arm. Results We enrolled 308 mother-infant pairs, randomized 1:1 into an ECD intervention (CHEU control, n = 155; CHEU intervention, n = 153). At six months post enrollment, the intervention was associated with modest improvements in two developmental domains, particularly cognitive (Adjusted 0.28, 95% CI: 0.09 to 0.46; p= 0.004) and social-emotional development (Adjusted 0.29, 95% CI: 0.08 to 0.49; p= 0.07). At 18 month post enrollment, adjusted models demonstrated a moderate positive effect with gross motor development, with participants showing a 0.24 standard deviation higher score compared with the control group (95% CI: 0.02-0.46; p=0.034). Conclusion The findings indicate that the intervention may have a moderate impact on cognitive and social-emotional outcomes after six months, as well as on gross motor functions after eighteen months of intervention.

Abstract Preventable neonatal deaths remain a major public health problem in Zimbabwe, where near-universal antenatal and facility-delivery coverage coexist with a rising neonatal mortality rate. This study evaluated whether institutionalising three core "vital signs" of the community health system (a trained village health worker (VHW) workforce, functional community governance structures, and modified women's and men's participatory learning and action groups) reduces preventable neonatal deaths in Mashonaland West Province. An embedded QUAN (qual) mixed-methods design was used, with a two-arm, parallel-group cluster-randomised controlled trial as the dominant strand. Fifty-two ward-level clusters were randomised 1:1 to the institutionalised community health system package or to standard Ministry of Health and Child Care community services, and 984 pregnant women were enrolled between 1 September 2020 and 31 October 2021, with each mother-infant pair followed to 28 days after delivery, yielding 973 mother-infant pairs for intention-to-treat analysis. The primary outcome was neonatal death within 28 days of life, expressed per 1,000 live births. The primary analysis used a three-level mixed-effects log-binomial regression model with cluster and community-health-worker random intercepts, adjusted for pre-specified covariates. Supervised machine-learning classifiers with leave-one-cluster-out cross-validation, Cox proportional-hazards regression, and multilevel logistic models were fitted as supplementary analyses. An embedded longitudinal process evaluation used key informant interviews and focus group discussions, which were analysed thematically and integrated with the quantitative findings. The neonatal mortality rate was 44.8 per 1,000 live births in the intervention arm versus 110.1 per 1,000 in the control arm. The adjusted risk ratio for neonatal death was 0.43 (95% CI 0.26-0.70; p < 0.001), a 57% relative reduction, with a number needed to treat of 16 mother-infant pairs (95% CI 11-29). Low birthweight (<2,500 g), birth interval under two years, and low community women's literacy were the strongest risk factors, while trained VHWs, functional community governance, early antenatal care, and sustained participatory group attendance were independently protective. The women's and men's groups were protective in a dose-dependent manner, becoming significant at four or more cycles (about 14 meetings) (adjusted odds ratio 0.71; 95% CI 0.60-0.85; p = 0.001). A random forest classifier discriminated against neonatal deaths with a cross-validated area under the curve of 0.842 and a sensitivity of 0.912. Qualitative findings converged with the trial results, identifying male engagement, earlier care-seeking, danger-sign literacy, social-network activation, and community death audits as the behavioural and structural mechanisms of change. Institutionalising the community health system package (trained VHWs, functional governance, early antenatal engagement, and sustained participatory groups) was associated with a substantial reduction in preventable neonatal deaths. The findings suggest that in high-coverage, high-mortality settings, the binding constraint is structural rather than clinical, and that scaling functional community governance and workforce infrastructure in the most disadvantaged communities may accelerate progress toward neonatal survival targets. The principal limitations are a one-year follow-up period, the rarity of neonatal death, and concurrent national programming that only partially reached the control clusters. Trial registration: Pan African Clinical Trials Registry, PACTR202607591142118 (https://pactr.samrc.ac.za/TrialDisplay.aspx?TrialID=PACTR202607591142118); registered retrospectively on 7 July 2026.

The analysis uses a global 2010-2023 panel comprising 3,038 economy-years across 217 economies. It explicitly separates between-economy and within-economy estimands and tests the longitudinal interpretation using an identical-sample temporal analysis with cluster-aware coefficient contrasts, a formal isometric log-ratio sensitivity analysis, independent fixed-effects replication, and wild-cluster-bootstrap inference. The central finding is deliberately calibrated: cross-economy agreement cannot validate national sugar availability for longitudinal obesity surveillance. The study identifies temporal and construct instability without claiming that sugar is protective or that the mechanisms producing the instability have been identified. The manuscript aligns well with PLOS ONEs emphasis on technically sound, transparent and reproducible research of broad relevance. All data required to reproduce the findings, complete metadata, executable code, full-precision results, diagnostic outputs and a completed STROBE checklist are provided as S1-S5. Figures are provided separately as compliant 350-dpi TIFF files. The study used only publicly available, aggregated economy-year statistics and involved no individual participants, identifiable information or biological specimens; institutional ethics review and consent were therefore not required. This is original work; it is not under consideration elsewhere, and the sole author has approved the submission and accepts responsibility for its content. Funding and competing-interest declarations will be entered accurately in the submission portal. An Academic Editor with expertise in nutritional epidemiology, global health metrics, longitudinal panel methods, or food-system surveillance would be well placed to assess the work.

Background. Routine service databases are attractive sources of training labels for clinical prediction models, but the processes that write those labels are rarely audited before the labels are used. In a deployed community cognitive-screening programme, we audited the routine cognitive-status label, built a matrix of twenty-four model arms over the same patients under a specialist reference standard, and measured what each supervision choice bought or cost. Methods. The study cohort is the 672 individuals whose cognitive status was recorded by a titled (attending-or-above) physician, that record being the reference standard; after holding out one institution entirely, a development panel of 642 individuals at 38 institutions. The routine cognitive-status label these individuals also carry was first audited at the operator level: for each data-entry account we counted diagnoses entered and the proportion recording any impairment, and tested a competing bulk-timestamp explanation. Twenty-four arms span the supervision choices such a programme faces: an incumbent 21-variable logistic regression; local language models (Qwen2.5-1.5B/3B, Qwen3-4B/8B) zero-shot, with chain-of-thought, fine-tuned on physician labels, on routine labels with and without decontamination, or on a proxy scale-band task; preference-optimised (DPO) and reinforcement-trained (GRPO) variants; a proprietary frontier model queried zero-shot; and knowledge distillation of that frontier model into the regression and into the local 4B, using 943 teacher-labelled records from the programme's unlabelled pool. All arms are scored out-of-fold under one five-fold split grouped on registry-resolved institution clusters (no cluster spans a fold); paired contrasts use a 2,000-draw cluster bootstrap. Results. 181 operator accounts (each entering at least 100 diagnoses with zero recorded impairments) account for 45,315 rows - 40.5% of the outcome column; recorded impairment falls monotonically with account volume (15.7% for 1-9 rows to 0.7% for 500-999); a bulk-timestamp explanation was tested and refuted, identifying the write-time column as a migration artefact. Under the specialist standard, no locally fine-tuned arm beat the incumbent regression (AUROC 0.926): physician-label SFT reached 0.924 (4B), DPO 0.881, and GRPO 0.789; the pre-registered two-stage proxy-then-RL recipe was worse than its single-stage contaminated baseline (-0.030, 95% CI -0.077 to -0.004). Chain-of-thought reduced discrimination at every size (-0.072, -0.080, -0.041 at 1.5B/3B/4B; -0.012, n.s., at 8B). The frontier model scored 0.932 (vs. regression +0.007, n.s.). The distilled 4B reached 0.940 - above the incumbent (+0.014, 0.004 to 0.031) and above its own teacher (+0.008, 0.001 to 0.017) - with near-teacher calibration; it reached the teacher's level by 50 teacher labels and changed little beyond 200. Conclusions. The audit and the arm matrix support one deployment recipe: audit the routine label at the operator level before training on it; do not expect fine-tuning, preference optimisation, or reinforcement learning on a few hundred specialist cases to beat a well-calibrated regression; and if a frontier model is available but undeployable, spend a bounded number of queries on it as a labelling instrument and distil. A companion paper uses these frozen predictions to quantify how evaluation design choices compare with model choice.