Evolution

Does the distribution of fitness effects of new mutations vary across the genome? Under the classical Fisher Geometric Model (FGM) we might not expect it to. In FGM, phenotypic traits are envisioned as dimensions of a landscape, with fitness determined by position in the landscape, i.e., the particular combination of traits of an individual. New mutations are represented by vectors that move from an ancestral to a new phenotype. In classical FGM these vectors affect all trait dimensions simultaneously (universal pleiotropy). However, introducing partial and modular pleiotropy into an FGM framework leads to an expectation that parameters of the DFE will vary with mutational pleiotropy-the number of traits affected by individual mutations. Here we address this prediction by investigating whether traits related to mutational pleiotropy, expression level and network connectivity, affect the parameters of the DFE using whole genome data from A. thaliana and C. grandiflora, two closely related Brassica species that vary significantly in their demography and mating system, and therefore, in effective population size and the effects of linked selection. Results were similar across both species. We found that expression level and network connectivity were predictive of the parameters of the deleterious DFE, even once co-correlations among genome biology traits were accounted for. Our results suggest that, across the genome, molecular evolutio(high mutational pleiotropy). nary patterns agree with the predictions of FGM, albeit relaxing the assumption of universal pleiotropy, and that variation in mutational pleiotropy among genes is sufficient to have detectible effects on the DFE. Significance statementHow do the effects of new mutations vary across the genome? If mutations in some genes affect many traits (high mutational pleiotropy), we hypothesise they will be more strongly deleterious, with lower variance in their selective effects. We test this by investigating the distribution of effects of new mutations across genes that vary in features that are related to mutational pleiotropy: expression level, gene network connectivity, and number of associated GO terms. The mean strength and coefficient of variation of selection of new mutations varied across genes with different features in the manner expected by our hypothesis. This demonstrates that important parameters of molecular evolution can vary across the genome with genome architecture.

The basic reproduction number R0 confounds pathogen biology with adaptive human contact behavior. Earlier epidemiological--economic theory predicted a forward-looking behavioral contact response but could not test it in the absence of appropriate behavioral data. Using directly measured mobility as an observable proxy for contact, we (i) estimate the behavioral response function directly from data; (ii) show that the biology/behavior decomposition and hence the behavioral correction to R0 is not identified from an epidemic trajectory, the apparent constant-contact R0 being one endpoint of an observational-equivalence class that fits the factual curve identically yet diverges under counterfactual; and (iii) characterize that divergence ("what R0 deletes") as state-dependent, unimodal in counterfactual severity and vanishing when behavior saturates. We then show that, across US jurisdictions, the correction is empirically bounded because risk-responsiveness and behavioral non-saturation are confounded (r=-0.57, n=51): where behavior could compensate, it was already maximal, and where it was not maximal it did not respond. What R0 deletes is thus real and structurally characterizable yet empirically modest here, for reasons the framework itself supplies.

Collective animal behavior occurs in high-stakes contexts where failing to coordinate effectively with group-mates can spell disaster for individuals. Yet, identifying instances of coordination failure is challenging, meaning their evolutionary effects remain mysterious. Synchronous calls in alternating frog choruses (i.e., inadvertent signal collisions) are unambiguous failure events that impose steep attractiveness costs. We modeled tungara frog chorusing dynamics to reveal the sensorimotor and social mechanisms underpinning synchrony. Ultimately, inter-male variation in two key sensorimotor attributes, the periods of male calling rhythms and call latencies, generated divergent synchrony engagement patterns. Modeling female preferences revealed that these varied behavioral outcomes then yielded disparate attractiveness consequences. By mechanistically linking the causes and consequences of coordination failure, we demonstrate that non-random failure patterns in collectives generate selection gradients that refine sensorimotor tuning.

Differences in physical features and disease prevalence between men and women are examples of sexual dimorphisms. However, sex differences can manifest not only in trait means but also in how strongly risk factors are linked to diseases (e. g. BMI to cardiovascular disease), a question heavily under-researched. To fill this gap, we set out to identify sex differences in phenotype correlations (rP) and decompose them into genetic (rG) and environmental (rE) contributions. Our analysis revealed 250 trait pairs with significant sex-different phenotypic correlations in the UK Biobank. Overall, we observed a predominance of environmental contributions to sex-different effects: 182 trait pairs (73%) exhibited exclusively sex-different rE, while 68 (27%) showed sex differences in both rE and rG, and no trait pair was affected solely by sex-specific rG. For example, we detected sex-different environmental correlation between C-reactive protein and BMI (rE(men) = 0.07 vs rE(women) = 0.25), but no sex-difference in genetic correlation. On the contrary, glycated haemoglobin and LDL cholesterol showed genetic correlation only in women (rG(women) = 0.17; 95% CI = [0.1, 0.23]), but environmental correlation only in men (rE(men) = -0.18; 95% CI = [-0.19, -0.16]). Some of the observed sex differences - including those involving testosterone, SHBG, urate, waist-hip ratio, and triglycerides - may reflect underlying sex-specific genetic architectures, as evidenced by low between-sex genetic correlations. In conclusion, environmental factors are the predominant contributors to sex differences in phenotypic correlations between complex traits, with modest detectable contributions from sex-specific genetic architectures. Recognising these patterns can inform the development of more effective, sex-informed interventions.

An epidemic's expected course is determined by the magnitude and timing of a typical person's infectiousness --- captured, in turn, by the basic reproduction number and the generation-time distribution. These fundamental, population-average quantities can mask individual-level variation that shapes how an epidemic actually unfolds: for example, individual variation in the magnitude of infectiousness (overdispersion) creates superspreading, a key feature of the SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 epidemics. However, the impact of individual variation in infectiousness timing is less well understood. Here, we demonstrate that individual infectiousness timing varies substantially and to different degrees across pathogens. For some common pathogens, including influenza, measles, and SARS-CoV-2, infectiousness is "bursty", or highly concentrated and variably-timed across individuals: for example, the window of appreciable infectiousness for SARS-CoV-2 may last for roughly a day, vs. the 9--12 days usually quoted. We show that bursty infectiousness creates superspreading without inherent superspreaders, makes epidemic timing more variable, amplifies the time-sensitivity of common interventions, and complicates inference of key epidemiological parameters. Together with the reproduction number, the generation-time distribution, and overdispersion, burstiness completes a family of basic parameters that govern how epidemics unfold.

Background Coccidioidomycosis is an emerging fungal disease across the arid Americas and a frequent cause of community-acquired pneumonia. Understanding where Coccidioides populations originate, how they move across space, and whether they are expanding is important for interpreting changing patterns of Valley fever and anticipating future infection risk. Methods We prospectively collected and whole-genome sequenced 186 Coccidioides-positive clinical isolates submitted to a national diagnostic laboratory, and included 126 previously sequenced genomes. We applied genomic clustering, time-calibrated phylogenetic reconstruction, ancestral area reconstruction, mating-type assignment, and demographic inference to identify major populations, infer dispersal patterns, assess evidence for recombination and clonality, and reconstruct historical population dynamics. Findings We analyzed 312 genomes (139 C. immitis; 173 C. posadasii) and identified three major genetic populations within each species. C. immitis included two California-centered populations and one Pacific Northwest population, whereas C. posadasii included two Arizona-centered populations and one Texas-centered population. The most recent common ancestor was estimated at approximately 127,000 years for C. immitis and 234,000 years for C. posadasii. Most populations were not fully monophyletic, consistent with retained ancestral variation and/or ongoing gene flow. Inferred dispersal was largely asymmetric, with most movement originating from California in C. immitis and from Arizona and Texas in C. posadasii. Most populations contained both mating types, but one C. immitis population and a Brazilian subgroup of C. posadasii were clonal. All populations showed recent demographic expansion. Interpretation The evolutionary history of Coccidioides is characterized by strong geographic structure, ongoing gene flow, and recent demographic expansion. These processes are likely to influence future patterns of Valley fever endemicity and supports the use of genomic surveillance to detect shifts in disease risk as environmental conditions change.

AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWO_LICommunity assembly graphs (CAGs) summarize which species combinations can coexist and how single-species invasions drive transitions between them, encoding the pathways, alternative endpoints, and cycles that make up a communitys assembly history. Constructing CAGs from dynamical models requires methods that are both computationally tractable and faithful to the underlying ecological dynamics. However, existing methods rely on restrictive assumptions, such as global stability, that exclude alternative stable states and non-equilibrium dynamics known to occur in empirical systems. C_LIO_LIWe develop a computational pipeline that constructs CAGs from any generalized Lotka-Volterra model. Building on the invasion graph framework and its connection to permanence, the pipeline verifies that community dynamics are bounded, identifies which subsets of species coexist in the sense of permanence, determines which single-species invasions are dynamically realized, and assigns each community a topographic height equal to the length of the longest assembly path leading to it. We also provide a numerical algorithm to simulate the dynamics of community assembly. C_LIO_LIWe prove several general properties of the resulting graphs, including that a successful invader is never subsequently excluded and that, in the absence of assembly cycles, permanent communities can be reassembled by introducing their species one at a time in the right order. We prove that the CAG faithfully reproduces the compositional shifts seen in the numerically simulated dynamics of assembly. Applying the pipeline to three empirically based models (a New Zealand grassland, a European pasture, and a Puerto Rican ant community), we show how competition strength and mutualistic feedbacks reshape the assembly landscape and how intransitive competition generates assembly cycles. C_LIO_LIOur approach accommodates alternative stable states and non-equilibrium dynamics without requiring global stability, and it turns the long-standing landscape metaphor into a quantitative, mechanistically grounded object by resolving what "height" means. More broadly, it makes the topography of the assembly pathways measurable, providing a way to compare the historical contingency and predictability of the assembly in ecological systems. C_LI

Genome-scale Perturb-seq screens prioritize candidate targets by the strength of a perturbations transcriptional effect. Effect strength does not answer a prior measurement question: is the readout dependable? A large effect estimated from a single guide, a single donor, or a pseudobulk of few cells need not survive replication, and for target prioritization each false lead costs a validation experiment. We treat each perturbation effect as a measurement in a crossed Target x Guide x Donor x Condition design and apply generalizability theory (Brennan, 2001; Cronbach et al., 1972) to separate the dependable part of an effect from facet-specific idiosyncrasy. Guides and donors enter as random facets; condition enters as a fixed facet and is analyzed within its levels. For each target we report a dependability profile over the facets and a joint generalizability coefficient over the two random facets, and we re-rank targets by effect magnitude weighted by that coefficient. On the released screen (Zhu et al., 2025), removing the measurement-error floor estimated from the non-targeting controls raises the number of genes with a dependable target-signal share above .10 from 40 to 7,674. Analyzed within activation states, dependability recovers the T-cell-receptor signaling module as reliably measurable only in activated cells, without recourse to gene annotation. A design study indicates that reliability is limited by the number of guides rather than the number of donors, so a future screen should add guides. Every methodological decision was recorded and adversarially reviewed, and all results regenerate from the released summary statistics.

Background. Polygenic scores (PRS) for coronary artery disease (CAD) are derived almost entirely from European-ancestry data. Their portability to Southeast Asian populations, including the Vietnamese, is largely uncharacterised and clinically consequential when scores are used with risk thresholds. Methods. We evaluated four independent European-derived CAD scores from the PGS Catalog (PGS000058, PGS000349, PGS002809, PGS004198; 70 - 5,723 variants) in 2,504 individuals from the 1000 Genomes Project, focusing on the Vietnamese Kinh (KHV) and Dai (CDX) samples. Per-individual scores were computed with PLINK2 and standardised. We assessed (i) the cross-ancestry distribution (calibration) and (ii) a clinically-relevant consequence: the proportion of each population flagged high genetic risk when the European top-20% threshold is applied (20% if perfectly calibrated). Results. For the primary score (PGS000058) the standardised PRS differed across super-populations (ANOVA F(4, 2499) = 121.1, p < 0.001); the Vietnamese Kinh mean was +0.47 SD above the European mean (Welch t = 7.77, p = 2.0 x 10^ -14). Applying the European top-20% high-risk threshold, the fraction of Vietnamese Kinh flagged ranged from 22.2% to 57.6% across the four scores, and of Dai from 21.5% to 43.0%, versus the intended 20%. Three of the four scores over-flagged Vietnamese (25-58%); the largest score (PGS004198) was approximately calibrated for East/Southeast Asians ([~]22%) but markedly over-flagged Africans (69.3%). Conclusions. European-derived CAD polygenic scores are inconsistently calibrated in Vietnamese and other Southeast Asian samples, and most substantially over-flag high genetic risk when a European threshold is applied. The magnitude and even the direction of miscalibration depend on the specific score, so no such score can be assumed transferable without local validation and recalibration. Distribution shift bounds, but does not by itself quantify, loss of predictive accuracy, which requires phenotyped data.

Adolescent externalizing behavior is a major risk factor for later substance use and other psychiatric outcomes. Understanding its genetic architecture and its relationship with brain imaging phenotypes requires scalable genome-wide methods applied to youth cohorts. Using data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study, we implemented a pipeline for genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of longitudinally measured externalizing traits and multimodal neuroimaging-derived phenotypes (IDPs). We performed quality-controlled genotype processing and constructed harmonized phenotype and covariate datasets. GWAS analyses were conducted using REGENIE in a two-step framework, with Step 1 ridge regression models trained on LD-pruned variants and Step 2 association testing performed genome-wide. Externalizing traits measured at baseline and summarized as longitudinal means and slopes, together with approximately 200 IDPs measured at baseline and summarized as longitudinal means and slopes, were analyzed. We further constructed a custom linkage disequilibrium (LD) reference panel using unrelated individuals and computed LD scores using LDSC. Genetic correlations between externalizing traits and imaging phenotypes were estimated using LD Score Regression. This exploratory study systematically evaluated genome-wide genetic correlations between regional cortical morphology and externalizing phenotypes in adolescence. Although several associations reached nominal significance, none remained significant after correction for multiple comparisons. These findings should not be interpreted as demonstrating an absence of shared genetic architecture. Rather, the precision of the estimates was constrained by the available imaging GWAS sample size, uncertainty in SNP-heritability estimates, and the large number of regional comparisons. Larger imaging-genetics samples and independent replication will be required to determine whether modest or regionally specific genetic correlations exist.

Chronic kidney disease and heart failure disproportionately burden populations of African ancestry, yet Mendelian randomisation (MR) studies of the causal relationship between kidney function and heart failure subtypes have been conducted exclusively in European ancestry populations. We performed a forward two-sample MR analysis to evaluate the causal effect of genetically predicted estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) on heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) in individuals of African ancestry. Genetic instruments were selected from an African ancestry eGFR genome-wide association study (N = 67,943) at genome-wide significance, with linkage disequilibrium clumping using an African ancestry reference panel. Heart failure subtype summary statistics were obtained from the Million Veteran Program (HFpEF: 5,379 cases / 113,041 controls; HFrEF: 9,104 cases / 109,632 controls). Six independent SNPs (F-statistics 30.5 &#8211 107.3; R&#178 = 0.62%) were retained as instruments. The primary inverse-variance weighted analysis provided no evidence of a causal effect of eGFR on HFpEF (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.80 &#8211 1.06, p = 0.248) or HFrEF (OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.78 &#8211 1.23, p = 0.878). Sensitivity analyses were directionally consistent. There was no evidence of heterogeneity or directional pleiotropy. Minimum detectable effects at 80% power were OR 1.28 for HFpEF and OR 1.22 for HFrEF. These null findings should be interpreted as inconclusive given current power constraints; larger ancestry-matched studies are needed.

Asthma is a heritable complex disease that disproportionately burdens minority and admixed populations in the US. However, the causal genes and regulatory mechanisms governing inherited risk remain largely unresolved. We performed a European-ancestry meta-analysis of 141,894 cases and 1,361,846 controls drawn from the Trans-national Asthma Genetic Consortium (TAGC) and Global Biobank Meta-analysis Initiative (GBMI), yielding an estimated h2SNP of 0.056 (SE = 0.0038) and 275 independently associated loci. To enhance mechanistic inference beyond variant-level associations, we developed a multimodal framework to predict asthma risk integrating GWAS summary statistics, bulk tissue expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) data from the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) project, and single-cell gene eQTL data from the OneK1K Project. We performed transcriptome-wide association studies (TWAS) and subsequently applied probabilistic fine-mapping with FOCUS to prioritize putative causal genes expressed in bulk tissues and higher resolution immune cell populations. Fine-mapping asthma-associated genes implicated barrier-immune and metabolic-endocrine tissues alongside adaptive T-cell subsets as the primary mediators of asthma genetic risk, resolving canonical CD4+ Th2 effector genes including IL1RL1, TSLP, STAT6, and GATA3. Using these prioritized genes, we constructed a polygenic transcriptome risk score (PTRS) using random forest to integrate gene-level effects across critical tissues and cell types. Evaluated in two ancestrally distinct pediatric asthma cohorts, the Childhood Asthma Management Program (CAMP) and the Genetics of Asthma in Costa Rica Study (GACRS), our PTRS demonstrated improved transferability over the standard variant-level and gene-level baseline models. While modest common variant heritability limits the discriminative power of our models, we estimated a theoretical maximum achievable area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of 0.64. Our integrative nonlinear model of PRS-CSx and cross-modal (bulk tissue and single cell) FOCUS PTRS resulted in the best cross-cohort performance (CAMP AUC = 0.632, sd = 0.04, 3.55 case/control odds ratio in top vs. bottom quartiles), representing an increase of +0.118 AUC over PRS-CSx, +0.067 AUC over tissue-specific TWAS pruning and thresholding, and +0.041 AUC over cell-type-specific FOCUS PTRS. Our results demonstrate that modeling nonlinear interactions between variant- and gene-level effects across both bulk tissue and single cell eQTL data improves our ability to determine high-risk individuals and to explain the likely mechanisms driving genetic susceptibility of childhood-onset asthma.

Purpose: Pathogenic variants in NFIX cause Marshall-Smith syndrome and Malan syndrome (MALNS). We identified a severe subtype of MALNS characterized by adolescent-onset musculoskeletal deterioration and investigated functional consequences of underlying variants. Methods: Clinical data were collected from seven individuals with pathogenic NFIX variants. Wild-type and mutated recombinant NFIX DNA-binding domains (DBDs) were evaluated using biochemical, structural, and DNA-binding assays. Results: Six individuals carrying R116W, R116P, K125E, or G147E NFIX substitutions developed progressive muscle wasting, markedly reduced body mass index, and rapidly progressive scoliosis after the typical childhood features of MALNS; two died from disease-related complications. A seventh individual with R116G did not develop this severe phenotype. Functional studies on recombinant NFIX DBDs showed complete or near-complete loss of DNA-binding activity for R116W, R116P, K125E, and G147E despite preserved protein folding, consistent with disrupted DNA recognition and a potential dominant-negative mechanism. In contrast, R116G exhibited a 7.7{degrees}C decrease in thermal stability, which may support haploinsufficiency mediated by protein degradation. Conclusion: Specific NFIX missense variants define a severe subtype of MALNS associated with progressive musculoskeletal deterioration. In vitro functional studies support variant-specific disruption of DNA binding, providing a mechanistic basis of genotype-phenotype correlations and informing prognosis, clinical surveillance, and therapy development.

While extensive cellular heterogeneity in renal cell carcinomas (RCC) is linked to diverse clinical outcomes, our understanding of this diversity is limited to those driven by clonal patterns or activity of canonical pathways. Here, we present a compendium of over 85,000 single-cell gene expression profiles from primary and metastatic tumors as well as patient-derived models across four RCC subtypes, including the rare clear cell papillary renal cell tumors, which we show are often misclassified and for which we identify CASP14 as a highly sensitive and specific biomarker. We dissect malignant cell variation within and across tumors using a generative modeling framework that accounts for clonal and copy number-driven expression shifts, defining 59 gene expression programs that deconstruct canonical pathways into functional submodules with divergent activity patterns, distinct regulators, and differential association with clinical outcomes. Despite the canonical view that VHL-deficient clear cell RCC exists in a constitutive pseudohypoxic state, we show strong intra-tumor variability of a hypoxia inducible factor 2 (HIF2)-driven program linked to poor outcome. We also identify early, spatially organized activation of a complete epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT) program, loss of epithelial identity, and upregulation of protein translation programs as key characteristics of metastatic progression. Finally, a metastatic signature capturing cellular de-differentiation and translational activity identifies primary tumors associated with adverse clinical outcomes. Together, this resource establishes a framework for dissecting malignant cell heterogeneity, refines RCC subtype classification, and defines transcriptional programs underlying metastasis progression.

As population-scale whole-genome sequencing datasets continue to expand, they enable genetic association studies beyond single-nucleotide variants to more complex forms of genetic variation, including classical human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles. The HLA region comprises nine highly polymorphic classical HLA genes in extensive linkage disequilibrium that are associated with numerous autoimmune and infectious diseases. However, unlike genome-wide association studies of single-nucleotide variants, there is no general guidance for controlling the multiple-testing burden in HLA allele association analyses. Here, we systematically evaluated the effective number of independent HLA allele tests using sequencing data from diverse genetic ancestries, analytical derivation and simulations. We show that the multiple-testing burden depends on genetic ancestry, allele frequency, and the phenotype model, but remains remarkably stable across minor allele count thresholds, corresponding to approximately 60-70% of the total number of tested HLA alleles. Simulations further demonstrate that the effective number of tests can exceed 90% under realistic disease models. Analyses of 4-field HLA alleles from long-read sequencing showed that higher typing resolution increases the number of alleles but preserves the underlying correlation structure and scales the effective number of independent tests proportionally. Our results provide practical guidance for HLA association studies and support Bonferroni correction based on the total number of tested HLA alleles as a simple and robust approximation when permutation-based approaches are impractical.

Schizophrenia and bipolar disorder are diagnostically distinct categories that overlap substantially in clinical features and genetic aetiology. Understanding genetic variants that contribute liability specifically to each disorder can offer insights into biological processes that differentiate them. Here we used Case-Case GWAS (CC-GWAS) to identify common genetic variants differentially associated with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, analysing 67,390 schizophrenia cases and 41,917 bipolar disorder cases. We identified 19 genome-wide significant loci, of which 16 (84%) demonstrated divergent genetic effects with risk alleles showing opposite directions of association between disorders. The CC-GWAS summary statistics had detectable disorder-differentiating heritability (10.27%, SE=0.01) and showed genetic correlations indicating that SCZ-differentiating alleles were associated with lower educational attainment, lower cognitive performance, and increased risk of ADHD, anorexia, autism, BD1 (though not BD2), cannabis use disorder, and OCD. Four loci showed divergent effects despite not reaching genome-wide significance in either individual disorder GWAS, demonstrating enhanced power to detect opposite-direction effects. Functional annotation identified 102 mapped genes significantly enriched for expression across all 13 tested brain regions, with no significant enrichment in peripheral tissues, and gene set enrichment analysis implicated neuronal projection and synaptic compartments as the strongest biological themes differentiating the two disorders. Polygenic risk scores derived from these disorder-differentiating variants were associated with earlier age at onset and more severe negative symptoms in schizophrenia, consistent with these variants marking neurodevelopmental dimensions of illness. Our findings provide targets for understanding pathogenic differences between schizophrenia and bipolar disorder and demonstrate that genuine divergent genetic effects exist beyond the substantial shared liability.

Malaria subnational tailoring is often a population-level allocation problem: which interventions should be prioritized, at what coverage, and under what budget and uncertainty assumptions? We present DELENDA, a differentiable compartmental model of Plasmodium falciparum transmission designed for posterior calibration and intervention-mix optimization. We fit a NUTS posterior jointly to age-stratified prevalence and clinical-incidence data from five sub-Saharan African sites plus three pre-intervention Garki Project villages, spanning a broad entomological inoculation rate (EIR) range. DELENDA is implemented in JAX, which makes the full simulation differentiable. This enables efficient Bayesian inference and continuous constrained optimization over intervention coverage. We apply the framework to an illustrative decision problem: a highly seasonal transmission setting where coverage is optimized for ITNs, SMC, IRS, and pediatric malaria vaccination across EIR, budget, objective, and uncertainty grids. Three findings are decision-relevant. First, intervention rankings are more robust than projected impact: posterior, vector-biology, and intervention-efficacy uncertainty change optimized coverage modestly but substantially widen the distribution of cases averted. Second, the objective matters: under-five optimization brings child-targeted SMC and vaccination in earlier, whereas all-age optimization delays vaccination and favors broader population protection through IRS. Third, cost uncertainty is mainly a constraint-side problem: expected-cost optima have material budget-overrun probability, while tail-risk budget rules sharply reduce overrun risk at the cost of lower effective coverage and fewer expected cases averted. DELENDA therefore demonstrates an uncertainty-first approach to subnational tailoring: differentiable model structure exposes the biological parameter space to posterior calibration and carries biological and operational uncertainty into constrained decision optimization, tasks that are difficult with the non-differentiable models currently central to SNT workflows.

Background and AimsThe development of unisexual flowers relies on the tight coordination of flower organ identity and sex determination. The genus Quercus is typically considered strictly monoecious, bearing fully segregated male and female flowers within the same individual tree. However, several reports of atypical flowering across the genus challenge this canonical view, suggesting that flowering in oaks may be more flexible than traditionally assumed. In this work, the dynamics of flower development in Quercus orocantabrica were examined to correlate contrasting floral morphologies with divergent molecular profiles. MethodsThe flowering phenology of Q. orocantabrica trees was closely monitored over several individuals and years, together with a detailed floral morphological analysis of male, female and atypical flowers. Key floral homeotic gene homologues were identified, and their expression assayed in the development of different flowers. Key ResultsRecurrent and widespread hermaphroditic flowering was detected in several Q. orocantabrica trees, frequently associated with unseasonal flowering events. Gene expression analysis of male, female and hermaphroditic flowers revealed a sex-biased expression of Q. orocantabrica B- and C-class genes, with the B-class gene QoPI in particular being tightly associated with the presence of fully-developed stamens. In addition, the expression of the C-class gene QoSHP contrasted with reports in other Fagaceae, highlighting a potential functional divergence of the C/D-class lineage within the family. ConclusionsThe results here depicted indicate that the dynamics of floral sex identity in oaks are more plastic than traditionally assumed, supporting a reinterpretation of oak reproductive biology based on a versatile and resilient framework responsive to different developmental contexts.

The apnea-hypopnea index (AHI), the conventional metric of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) severity, is typically studied using scalar summaries of sleep architecture, such as the total time spent in each sleep stage. Although clinically interpretable, these summaries fail to capture the temporal organization of overnight sleep-stage sequences and may obscure stage-specific associations with OSA severity. Modeling the complete sleep-stage trajectory provides substantially richer temporal information; however, because total sleep duration varies across individuals, sleep-stage trajectories are observed over subject-specific domains, limiting the applicability of conventional functional regression methods that assume a common observation interval. We therefore applied Variable-Domain Functional Regression (VDFR) to overnight polysomnographic data from the APPLES study (n= 1,103), treating the epoch-by-epoch sleep-stage sequence as a continuous, variable-length functional predictor of AHI. We compared three levels of sleep-stage granularity: five stages (Wakefulness, N1, N2, N3, REM), three stages (Wakefulness, Non-REM, REM), and binary staging (Wakefulness vs. Sleep). Functional sleep-stage terms were significant across all staging granularities and model structures (all p-values [&le;]0.001). Wake, N1, and N2 were positively associated with AHI, whereas N3 and REM were negatively associated, with REM exhibiting the strongest association. These effects were attenuated under coarser staging representations, highlighting the importance of preserving fine-grained sleep architecture. To our knowledge, this is the first application of VDFR to overnight polysomnographic data in OSA, showing that accommodating subject-specific sleep durations enables the identification of stage-specific temporal associations with AHI severity that are attenuated or obscured by coarser staging and conventional scalar analyses.

Green algae must continuously balance resource availability to maintain photosynthetic performance. The O2:CO2 ratio is a key determinant of their metabolic mode. Under hyperoxia or low CO2, many algae induce a carbon concentrating mechanism (CCM). In the model green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, the CCM relies on a pyrenoid, a specialized microcompartment that elevates CO2 around rubisco. While ambient CO2 acclimation is well-studied, responses to hyperoxia remain poorly understood, despite its frequent occurrence in nature under high light. Using controlled bioreactors, we exposed two diverse Chlamydomonas ecotypes, CC1009 and CC2343, to 95% oxygen to analyze time-dependent, genome-wide transcriptomic and phenotypic changes. Both ecotypes induced CCM genes, but they exhibited distinct molecular and physiological phenotypes. The tolerant ecotype (CC1009) successfully adapted, developing a functional CCM with a structured starch sheath. Conversely, the sensitive ecotype (CC2343) suffered growth arrest and formed malformed pyrenoids. Transcriptomics revealed that CC1009 initiated a rapid initial response, upregulating chloroplast proteostasis and downregulating nucleotide metabolism. CC2343 showed a massive, delayed transcriptional response, downregulating genes coding for photosystems and tetrapyrrole biosynthesis. This unbiased transcriptomic approach identifies key candidate genes driving algal acclimation to hyperoxic stress in natural, high-light environments.