Back

Identification of a Fractional Model for an Outbreak of the Dengue Fever

Cresson, J.; Pere, M.; Szafranska, A.

2026-05-27 epidemiology
10.64898/2026.05.26.26354120 medRxiv
Show abstract

This work focuses on the global and partial identification problem for fractional differential equations. We provide a general numerical procedure based on global and local optimization algorithms with two refinements for biological systems that ensure solution positivity and homogeneous parameter units. The method is applied to a new fractional model of Dengue outbreak called the Fractional Homogeneous Nishiura (FHN) model, calibrated using data of newly infected people in Cape Verde. We show that our identification method yields a better fit between data and model solutions than previous approaches and that our FHN model captures the dynamics of Dengue more closely than existing systems.

Matching journals

The top 9 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.

1
PLOS ONE
4510 papers in training set
Top 19%
9.8%
2
Biomechanics and Modeling in Mechanobiology
25 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
6.2%
3
PLOS Computational Biology
1633 papers in training set
Top 6%
6.2%
4
Scientific Reports
3102 papers in training set
Top 20%
6.2%
5
Infectious Disease Modelling
50 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
6.2%
6
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
84 papers in training set
Top 0.4%
4.7%
7
The European Physical Journal Plus
13 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
4.7%
8
Mathematical Biosciences
42 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
4.2%
9
Journal of Theoretical Biology
144 papers in training set
Top 0.4%
3.5%
50% of probability mass above
10
Royal Society Open Science
193 papers in training set
Top 0.8%
3.5%
11
Journal of Mathematical Biology
37 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
3.5%
12
Chaos, Solitons & Fractals
32 papers in training set
Top 0.6%
3.0%
13
Nonlinear Dynamics
10 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
2.8%
14
Physical Biology
43 papers in training set
Top 0.6%
2.8%
15
Frontiers in Physics
20 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
2.4%
16
Mathematics
11 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
2.0%
17
Biology
43 papers in training set
Top 0.5%
1.8%
18
Journal of Clinical Medicine
91 papers in training set
Top 4%
1.6%
19
Computers in Biology and Medicine
120 papers in training set
Top 2%
1.6%
20
Heliyon
146 papers in training set
Top 3%
1.3%
21
Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics
10 papers in training set
Top 0.3%
1.2%
22
Physical Review E
95 papers in training set
Top 0.9%
1.2%
23
Journal of The Royal Society Interface
189 papers in training set
Top 3%
1.2%
24
JMIRx Med
31 papers in training set
Top 1%
0.9%
25
Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence
18 papers in training set
Top 0.6%
0.9%
26
BMC Public Health
147 papers in training set
Top 5%
0.9%
27
Biology Methods and Protocols
53 papers in training set
Top 2%
0.8%
28
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
23 papers in training set
Top 0.7%
0.7%
29
BMC Bioinformatics
383 papers in training set
Top 8%
0.6%