Back

Diabetologia

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Diabetologia's content profile, based on 44 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.04% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
Long-Term Impact of Cumulative Hyperglycaemia on DNA Methylation and its Role in Diabetic Kidney Disease

Luo, X.; Syreeni, A.; Hill, C.; Smyth, L. J.; Dahlstrom, E. H.; Mutter, S.; Chen, Z.; Natarajan, R.; Pan, S.; Parton, A.; Jackson, H.; McKay, G.; Susztak, K.; Hirschhorn, J. N.; Florez, J. C.; Maxwell, A. P.; Groop, P.-H.; McKnight, A. J.; Sandholm, N.

2026-09-03 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.08.31.26361614 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
33.5%
Show abstract

Hyperglycaemia is a hallmark of diabetes and a major risk factor for diabetic kidney disease (DKD). However, the molecular consequences of long-term cumulative hyperglycaemia (CH) remain unclear. As a stable epigenetic modification, DNA methylation may capture past glycaemic exposure. Here, we assessed CH-associated DNA methylation in 1,245 participants with type 1 diabetes (T1D) from Finland and the United Kingdom-Republic of Ireland cohorts. We identified 17 CH-associated CpGs, with the strongest association at cg19693031 (TXNIP). Longitudinal analyses demonstrate that these CH-associated DNA methylation levels remain stable despite short-term glycaemic fluctuations, suggesting lasting epigenetic imprints of earlier metabolic control. Integrative analyses combining genomic, epigenetic, and proteomic data characterized these CpGs and potential target proteins. Mendelian randomization suggested a causal association between cg20853880 (KLF11) and DKD, supported by chromatin accessibility and kidney KLF11 expression. Our findings suggest that epigenetic changes contribute to metabolic memory and may mediate the effects of hyperglycaemia on DKD.

2
Left ventricular hypertrophy, brain atrophy and cognitive decline in type 2 diabetes mellitus: Diabetes & Dementia (D2) cohort study

Brodtmann, A.; Patel, S.; Restrepo, C.; Khlif, M. S.; Werden, E.; Ellis, R.; Alsawaf, S.; Ekinci, E. I.; Srivastava, P. M.; Ramchand, J.; MacIsaac, R. J.; Churilov, L.; Burrell, L. M.

2026-09-02 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.08.31.26361868 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
6.7%
Show abstract

BACKGROUND People with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are at higher risk of cerebral small vessel disease and left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH), potentially contributing to cognitive decline and dementia. We aimed to describe brain volume and cognitive trajectories over 2 years in a cohort of people with T2DM and to determine whether LVH causes increased brain atrophy and cognitive decline. METHODS Diabetes and Dementia (D2) study is a multicentre observational cohort study in Melbourne, Australia. Participants aged >50 years were recruited via 2 hospital outpatient clinics, 3 private clinics, and study advertisements. Participants with pre-existing cognitive impairment, life-limiting medical illness, and severe chronic renal impairment were excluded. Participants attended study visits for brain MRI, transthoracic echocardiography (TTE), and cognitive testing at baseline and 2 years. The exposure was LVH determined on baseline TTE. Pre-specified outcomes were total brain volume (TBV) change and cognitive decline (z-score change?-1 in any cognitive domain) over 2 years. Regression analyses examined associations between baseline variables and outcomes. A causal inference approach was utilized using inverse probability of treatment weighting to standardize for confounding covariates, excluding participants for non-positivity on age and baseline TBV. RESULTS Participants were recruited 20May2016 to 20March2020: 2378 screened, 702 eligible, 196 consented, 150 baseline and 123 2-year assessments with complete MRI, TTE, and cognitive data (17.4% attrition). At baseline, LVH was associated with female sex, older age, lower educational attainment, lower mood, hypertension, obesity, beta-blocker use, and smaller TBV. Participants with baseline cognitive impairment exhibited greater brain atrophy. Lower educational attainment, hypertension, and lower baseline cognitive scores were associated with cognitive decline. Causal inference analysis included 62 participants with no LVH (20(32%) women; mean [SD]=66.9[5.9] years), and 31 with LVH (17(55%) women, 67.4[5.4] years). LVH caused lower TBV change: standardized mean difference (95% CI) 6.3 (0.1, 12.5) cm3, P=.048. LVH had no effect on cognitive decline. CONCLUSIONS Brain atrophy and cognitive decline were associated with baseline cognitive impairment. LVH caused less brain atrophy and cognitive decline in people with T2DM. We conclude that guideline-directed LVH therapies such as beta-blockers have both cardioprotective (remodelling) and neuroprotective effects. TRIAL REGISTRATION ACTRN12616000546459 UTN: U1111-1181-6659

3
Cross-System Meta-Analysis of Machine Learning Predictors Identifies Value-Specific Risk Drivers and Interactions Underlying Acute Kidney Injury

Chan, H. Y.; Li, D.; Yu, A. S. L.; Kellum, J. A.; Fuhrman, D. Y.; Xu, Q.; Chrischilles, E. A.; Cowell, L. G.; Chandaka, S.; Anzalone, A. J.; Kean, J.; McTigue, K. M.; Mosa, A. S. M.; Taylor, B.; Syed, M.; Waitman, L. R.; Hu, Y.; Liu, M.

2026-09-02 nephrology 10.64898/2026.08.31.26361849 medRxiv
Top 0.3%
2.8%
Show abstract

Background: Current understanding of acute kidney injury (AKI) risk factors remains largely descriptive, offering limited precision into how specific biomarker values or physiologic thresholds influence susceptibility. We aimed to synthesize knowledge from machine learning models trained across multiple health systems to identify generalizable, value-specific risk drivers and biomarker interactions contributing to AKI risk. Methods: We analyzed electronic health records (EHRs) from 785,497 adult inpatients between 2010 and 2019 across nine U.S. academic medical centers within PCORnet. Interpretable gradient boosting machine models were independently developed at each health system to quantify predictor-outcome associations. Meta-regression was applied to integrate these site-level results, characterize nonlinear value-risk relationships, and identify bivariate interactions between predictors. Results: Meta-analysis revealed consistent, value-specific risk drivers across health systems. An increase in glucose from 100 mg/dL to 140 mg/dL was associated with a 1.46-fold higher risk of AKI. Chloride and anion gap also demonstrated elevated AKI risk with risk increases overlapping portions of their reference ranges, with anion gap showing a 1.14-fold increase across 4-12 mmol/L and chloride a 1.28-fold increase across 96-100 mEq/L. Electrolytes including potassium, calcium, and sodium showed quadratic associations with AKI risk. Bivariate meta-regression identified interactions between key predictors, highlighting pathways that jointly modulate AKI risk. Conclusion: This cross-system meta-analysis synthesizes machine learning-derived evidence into clinically interpretable knowledge, revealing how specific biomarker ranges and interactions modulate AKI risk. By moving beyond surface-level associations to quantitative, generalizable physiologic thresholds, these findings provide actionable insights to enhance risk stratification and personalized prevention in hospital care.

4
Belimumab with rituximab for the treatment of primary membranous nephropathy

Chung, S. A.; Stelzig, L.; Sherman, M. A.; Gao, W.; Tosta, P.; Cooney, L. A.; Adler, S.; Aslam, N.; Ayoub, I.; Bomback, A. S.; Coppock, G.; Derebail, V. K.; Kamal, F.; Rizk, D. V.; Tuttle, K. R.; Waldman, M.; Barry, W. T.; Nachman, P. H.

2026-08-31 nephrology 10.64898/2026.08.26.26360913 medRxiv
Top 0.3%
2.4%
Show abstract

Introduction: B cell depletion with rituximab leads to complete or partial remission (CR/PR) in only ~60% of patients with primary membranous nephropathy (PMN). Adding belimumab to rituximab may result in greater depletion of memory B cells, limit the re-emergence of autoreactive B cells, and improve clinical responses. Methods: REBOOT Part A (NCT03949855) is a single arm, open-label, pharmacokinetic study where all participants had proteinuria [≥] 4g/day and detectable serum anti-phospholipase A2 receptor (anti-PLA2R) antibodies. Participants received belimumab 200 mg subcutaneously weekly for 52 weeks and rituximab 1000 mg intravenously at weeks 4 and 6. Assessments included belimumab exposure at week 4 and CR/PR at week 104. Results: Seventeen participants started belimumab. Belimumab exposure was not significantly reduced in those with high (> 9 g/day) proteinuria at week 4. Among all treated participants, 59% (10/17) achieved CR/PR at week 104, while in per protocol analyses, 91% (10/11) achieved CR/PR at week 104. All participants in per protocol analyses had normal serum albumin and undetectable serum anti-PLA2R by week 104. Circulating memory B cells increased before rituximab and were depleted by rituximab. B cell re-constitution occurred after week 52 with primarily naive and transitional B cells. Belimumab with rituximab was well-tolerated, with one participant discontinuing belimumab due to infection. Conclusion: In this study, a high proportion of participants receiving belimumab with rituximab achieved CR/PR. Thus, a multi-targeted approach to B cell depletion may improve immunologic and clinical outcomes in PMN and is being studied in a larger, randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trial.

5
Acceptability, feasibility, quality of life and diabetes distress score outcomes: A pragmatic randomised clinical trial on continuous glucose monitoring for people with type 1 diabetes

Marban-Castro, E.; Muhwava, L.; Girdwood, S.; Kemp, T.; Freitas, J.; Kamau, Y.; Otieno, M.; Akach, D.; Morato, A.; Sanz, S.; Fiechter, V.; Erkosar, B.; Watson, M.; Vetter, B.; Haldane, C.; Shilton, S.; Rheeder, P.; Dave, J. A.; Carrihill, M.; Karsas, M.

2026-08-31 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361479 medRxiv
Top 0.4%
2.1%
Show abstract

Introduction: Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) offers an advancement over traditional self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) for people living with type 1 diabetes (T1D). However, evidence on the acceptability and feasibility of different CGM use cases in African populations remains limited. Methods: This was a pragmatic three-arm, randomised controlled trial on CGM conducted among people living with T1D in three public healthcare clinics in South Africa. Participants were assigned to Arm 1 (continuous CGM), Arm 2 (periodic CGM), or Arm 3 (SMBG). Diabetes education was provided at all study visits. Feasibility was assessed by adherence to CGM use and through the Glucose Monitoring Satisfaction Survey (GMSS). Diabetes distress was measured by the Diabetes Distress Scale (DDS), health-related quality of life (HRQoL) by the EQ-5D scales, and acceptability using the Theoretical Framework of Acceptability (TFA). Surveys were collected on paper and transferred to OpenClinica. Analyses were performed in R. The trial was registered in the Clinical Trials Registry (NCT05944718) on July 13, 2023. Results: A total of 83 participants were included in Arm 1, 85 in Arm 2, and 80 in Arm 3. CGM mean active time was 55% in Arm 1 versus 69% in Arm 2. The proportion of participants meeting the [≥]70% active time threshold was higher in Arm 2 (52%) than in Arm 1 (34%). Diabetes' distress declined across arms during the intervention period, with no significant difference between arms; distress increased slightly six months post-intervention but remained below baseline. At 6 months, glucose monitoring satisfaction was significantly higher in both CGM arms than in the SMBG arm, and satisfaction increased over time in CGM arms. Health-related quality of life remained stable across arms during the intervention period with no significant difference between arms. High acceptability was observed in both CGM arms, with higher ratings in the periodic arm. Conclusions: CGM was acceptable to people living with type 1 diabetes and feasible to use in public-sector clinics in South Africa, with high acceptability under continuous and periodic use. Health-related quality of life remained stable across arms, and diabetes-related distress declined, during the intervention period, across arms. Glucose monitoring satisfaction rose significantly in both CGM arms compared to SMBG. Periodic CGM might be a promising and potentially more scalable option than continuous use for public-sector care.

6
Urinary collagen type I degradation products as common fibrosis biomarkers in chronic diseases

Mina, I. K.; Hussain, Y.; Siwy, J.; Catanese, L.; Rupprecht, H.; Beige, J.; Staessen, J. A.; Metzger, J.; Persson, F.; Rossing, P.; Delles, C.; Schanstra, J. P.; Bannaga, A.; Vlahou, A.; Mischak, H.; Arasaradnam, R. P.; Latosinska, A.

2026-08-31 nephrology 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361420 medRxiv
Top 0.4%
1.8%
Show abstract

Background: Fibrosis, characterised by excessive accumulation of collagen type I (COL1), is a common feature of chronic diseases, including liver diseases (LDs), chronic kidney disease (CKD) and heart failure (HF). COL1 degradation products can be detected in urine by proteomics/ peptidomics analyses and may serve as non-invasive biomarkers of fibrosis. We aimed to identify a common molecular signature of fibrosis across these diseases that may ultimately guide interventions to slow disease progression and prevent organ damage. Methods: Using capillary electrophoresis coupled to mass spectrometry (CE-MS), naturally occurring COL1 degradation products (peptides) in the urine of patients with fibrotic disease, LDs (n=127), CKD (n=263) or HF (n=187), were investigated and compared with the same number of matched controls. Disease-associated COL1 peptides were identified separately for each condition, and peptides showing consistent associations across the three diseases were selected to define a common fibrosis signature. A support vector machine model based on the selected peptides was developed and validated in independent cohorts of patients with LDs (n=110), CKD (n=93), HF (n=32) and controls (n=643). Results: We identified a common fibrotic signature consisting of 50 COL1 degradation products, mainly downregulated in fibrosis. A model based on these peptides achieved a strong performance, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.935 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.917-0.953, p<0.0001) in an external validation cohort comprising pooled disease groups (LDs, CKD, and HF) and controls. Performance was maintained in LDs, CKD and HF, with AUCs of 0.917 (95% CI 0.890-0.944, p<0.0001), 0.951 (95% CI 0.931-0.971, p<0.0001) and 0.950 (95% CI 0.903-0.997, p<0.0001), respectively. The model scores were significantly associated with fibrosis stage in LDs (p=0.0097) and with interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy in CKD (p=0.045). Conclusion: A model of urinary COL1 peptides captures a shared collagen degradation signature across organs and diseases, enabling the non-invasive assessment of fibrosis irrespective of its origin. As these peptides exclusively reflect collagen degradation, the findings suggest impaired collagen degradation as a driver in fibrosis. Future clinical studies are warranted to evaluate the utility of this model for early fibrosis detection and earlier implementation of anti-fibrotic interventions.

7
Individual-Level Counterfactual Analysis of SGLT2 Inhibitors Versus DPP4 Inhibitors in Diabetic Kidney Disease Using Causal Machine Learning

Yano, Y.; Nagasu, H.; Hiroshi, K.; Ohashi, M.; Isaka, Y.; Okada, H.; Nangaku, M.; Kashihara, N.

2026-09-03 health informatics 10.64898/2026.08.30.26361750 medRxiv
Top 0.4%
1.8%
Show abstract

Background: Traditional real-world studies comparing SGLT2 and DPP4 inhibitors on renal outcomes rely on propensity score matching, which causes high-dimensional data loss. We used causal machine learning (Causal ML) to unmask heterogeneous treatment effects in diabetic kidney disease (DKD). Methods: Using data from 4,588 patients within the Japanese J-CKD-DB-Ex registry, we implemented a doubly robust (DR) learning framework (Linear DR-learner with XGBoost) to compare SGLT2 and DPP4 inhibitors. Outcomes included the chronic eGFR slope and a composite renal endpoint ([&ge;] 50% eGFR decline or end-stage kidney disease). Heterogeneity was explored via causal SHAP and decision trees. Results: At the population level, SGLT2 inhibitors modestly slowed chronic eGFR decline (average treatment effect [ATE] = 0.14 [95% CI: -0.86, 1.15] mL/min/1.73m^2/year) and reduced composite endpoint risk by 9% (ATE: -0.09 [-0.11, -0.08]) versus DPP4 inhibitors. However, individual-level counterfactual analysis suggested that for the chronic eGFR slope, non-glinide users with stable pre-treatment trajectories who were also taking ACE inhibitors had a greater benefit from SGLT2 inhibitors (ATE: 2.95 [-0.68, 6.58]). Conversely, glinide users with steep pre-treatment decline had a greater benefit from DPP4 inhibitors (ATE: -8.98 [-16.11, -1.85]). For composite renal events, SGLT2 inhibitors had a 28% absolute risk reduction within the algorithmically identified high-risk subgroup (eGFR [&le;] 28.1 mL/min/1.73 m^2 and positive proteinuria; ATE: -0.28 [-0.33, -0.23]). Even non-proteinuric decliners demonstrated a 8% risk reduction with SGLT2 inhibitors (ATE: -0.08 [-0.10, -0.06]). Conclusion: Causal ML advances precision medicine in DKD, shifting from uniform prescribing to individualized, data-driven therapy targeting distinct intrarenal pathways.

8
Adding salt to foods and risk of incident infection

Yuan, Y.; Qiao, Y.; Chen, X.; Wang, Y.; Zhao, W.; Zheng, X.; Zhang, X.; Niu, G.; Wu, Y.

2026-08-31 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361489 medRxiv
Top 0.5%
1.3%
Show abstract

Background Excess sodium intake is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, but its role in infection susceptibility remains largely unexplored. Although sodium has been considered antimicrobial, high sodium intake may impair immune responses and host defense. We therefore examined whether habitual addition of salt to foods was associated with the long-term risk of incident infections. Methods We included 360,314 UK Biobank participants without prior hospital-treated infections. Frequency of adding salt to foods was self-reported at baseline. Incident infections were identified using ICD-10 codes from hospital and death records. Associations were assessed using multivariable Cox regression. Results Over a median follow-up of 14.3 years, 84?146 participants developed hospital-treated infections. Compared with those who never or rarely added salt, participants who sometimes, usually, and always added salt had progressively higher risks of incident infections (adjusted hazard ratios 1.04 [95% CI 1.03?1.06], 1.08 [1.06?1.11], and 1.29 [1.26?1.33], respectively; p for trend <0.001). The association remained robust across models and broadly consistent across pathogen types and infection sites. The association appeared stronger among participants with normal weight (P for interaction <0.001). Conclusions Habitual addition of salt to foods was associated with a dose-dependent higher risk of hospital-treated infections in this large prospective cohort. These findings extend the potential health relevance of excess sodium intake beyond cardiometabolic disease and suggest that lower habitual salt intake may have implications for infection risk. Further studies are needed to replicate these findings and clarify the underlying immunological mechanisms.

9
Publication Bias in Abstracts Presented at the American Diabetes Association Scientific Sessions: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Pinedo-Torres, I.; Taype-Rondan, A.; Vera-Luza, A. A.; Zegarra-Lizana, P. A.; Rojas-Vilca, J. L.; Yovera-Aldana, M.

2026-08-31 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361486 medRxiv
Top 0.5%
1.2%
Show abstract

Objective. To determine the publication rate of abstracts presented at the American Diabetes Association Scientific Sessions and to evaluate the association between statistical significance of study results and subsequent publication. Research Design and Methods. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of abstracts presented at the 2018 American Diabetes Association Scientific Sessions. The primary exposure was study result category (statistically significant vs. non-statistically significant findings), and the primary outcome was publication in an indexed journal within 5 years after conference presentation. Publication status was determined through PubMed/MEDLINE and Scopus searches. Adjusted relative risks (RRs) and 95% CIs were estimated using generalized linear models with Poisson distribution and robust variance. Results. Among 541 included abstracts, 321 (59.3%) were subsequently published in indexed journals. Abstracts reporting statistically significant findings had a higher publication rate than those reporting non-statistically significant findings (61.9% vs. 42.3%; p=0.002). In the adjusted analysis, abstracts with non-statistically significant findings had a lower likelihood of publication compared with those reporting statistically significant findings (adjusted RR 0.71 [95% CI 0.55-0.93]; p=0.013). Conclusions. Approximately four in ten abstracts presented at the ADA Scientific Sessions were not published within 5 years. Abstracts reporting non-statistically significant findings had a lower likelihood of subsequent publication, suggesting persistent publication bias in diabetology research. Future initiatives promoting the interpretation of effect estimates, confidence intervals and clinical relevance, rather than statistical significance alone, may help reduce selective dissemination of evidence

10
Projected Population-Level Impact of Digital Return of Results for Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic Screening at US Blood Donation Centers: A Monte Carlo Simulation Study

Qian, Z.; Khera, A.; Makhnoon, S.; Chapman, B. E.; Bryant, B.; Sayers, M.; Compton, F.; Eason, S.; Xing, C.; Ahmad, Z.

2026-09-03 public and global health 10.64898/2026.09.01.26360806 medRxiv
Top 0.6%
1.1%
Show abstract

Background. Cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome affects nearly 90% of US adults, yet most individuals at early, modifiable stages remain unidentified outside clinical care. Blood donation centers offer a scalable, non-clinical venue for CKM screening, but the potential benefit of screening in this context remains unclear. We projected the population-level impact of effective digital return of results (ROR) to inform the design of a pragmatic trial. Methods. We developed a Monte Carlo simulation (100,000 iterations) of the incident major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) preventable by ROR-prompted, guideline-concordant follow-up among donors in CKM Stages 1-2. The estimand counts only events averted by donors who act because of ROR; the intervention effect was modeled directly on strictly positive support, and action was translated into prevented events through a hazard-based cumulative-incidence difference that counts each donor at most once. We evaluated 18 design cells (donor volumes 300,000, 1 million, and 8 million/year; 5- and 10-year horizons; action-rate gains of +10, +20, and +30 percentage points [pp]) and, in a complementary two-arm simulation, the assurance (expected power) of detecting the effect in a single deployment. Results. Under the primary +20 pp scenario, ROR at a single large blood center (300,000 donors/year) is projected to prevent a median of 2,201 events (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 1,099-4,364) over 10 years, scaling to 58,526 (29,154-116,769) at the national donor pool. All 18 design cells had strictly positive 95% lower bounds. The number needed to screen was 136 and the screening cost $2,045 per event prevented (at $15/donor), both invariant to donor volume. Impact scaled linearly with volume and effect size but sub-linearly with the horizon. Detection of the effect was effectively certain at gains of +20 pp or larger (assurance [&ge;]99.6% in every cell and >99.9% in all but the smallest 5-year cell). Conclusions. Even under the conservative scenario, digital CKM ROR at blood donation centers is projected to prevent hundreds to tens of thousands of incident cardiometabolic events at a screening cost per event well within accepted prevention benchmarks, providing prospective, quantitative justification for a pragmatic, randomized evaluation of digital ROR in non-clinical screening settings.

11
A Scalable Biological Clock for Metabolic Disease Prediction from the Phenome India Cohort

Tiwari, P.; Garg, M.; Pattanayak, S.; Sarkar, I.; Roy, R.; Bhatraju, N.; Verma, A.; K, S. R.; Prakash, S.; Kumar, V. S.; Uddin, M. A.; Rawat, N.; Sahu, A.; Kumar, Y.; Leuva, P. H.; Mridha, A.; Yenamandra, V.; Singh, A. P.; Mishra, A.; Raychaudhuri, S.; Tallapaka, K. B.; Chandak, G. R.; Kulkarni, M. J.; Dharne, M.; Wahengbam, R.; Kalita, J.; Manna, P.; Subudhi, U.; Majumder, S.; Chakraborty, P.; Chaudhary, K.; Sengupta, S.; Phenome India Consortium, ; Sardana, V.; Chatterjee, S.; Ganguly, D.

2026-09-03 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.08.29.26361656 medRxiv
Top 0.6%
1.0%
Show abstract

Background: India has a rising incidence of chronic non-communicable diseases, making it a major healthcare burden today. Growing evidence suggests that chronic low-grade inflammation links ageing with cardiometabolic disorders, captured by the emerging concept of inflammaging. However, most evidence on biological ageing comes from Western populations, with no similar models developed for the Indian population. Given the country's distinctive genetic makeup, unique exposome, and heterogeneous NCD presentation, Western models may not capture inflammaging and its effects in the Indian population. Methods: We analysed baseline data from 4,240 adults in the Phenome India CSIR Health Cohort Knowledgebase (PI CheCK), a nationwide multi-centre cohort. Participants were stratified into eight cardiometabolic phenotype groups by BMI (Asian cut off), blood pressure and HbA1c status. We trained a Super Learner ensemble to predict chronological age in the lean normotensive-normoglycaemic reference group (n=615) using 44 plasma cytokines, sex, haemoglobin, and bioimpedance-derived visceral fat area, per cent body fat, and total body water. Performance was assessed by repeated five-fold cross-validation and in a held-out healthy test set. Calibrated biological age acceleration was then estimated in the remaining 3,625 participants. Results: Median age was 51.0 years (IQR 41.0 to 62.0) and 49.4% were female. The Super Learner outperformed elastic net and XGBoost comparators. Permutation importance identified visceral fat area, per cent body fat, CTACK, SDF1a, haemoglobin and sex as leading contributors, with body composition measures accounting for the largest share, indicating an immune-metabolic rather than cytokine-only signal. Biological age acceleration was concentrated in overweight/obese phenotypes. Lean phenotypes showed acceleration close to the reference (0.32 0.50 years). Conclusions: Cytokine and body composition measures capture a quantifiable immunometabolic ageing signal in a South Asian cohort, with acceleration driven predominantly by adiposity. External validation and longitudinal follow up are required.

12
Usability, acceptability and feasibility of continuous glucose monitoring among children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes in Kenya

Amolo, P.; Mungai, L.; Karume, A. K.; Kibugi, J.; Mwende, W.; Botella, N.; Haldane, C.; Kamau, Y.; Marban-Castro, E.

2026-09-01 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361447 medRxiv
Top 0.7%
0.9%
Show abstract

Introduction Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) is considered standard care in high-income countries. There is, however, limited published evidence on CGM use in low- and middle-income countries. The purpose of this study was to assess the usability, acceptability, and feasibility of CGM use among people living with type 1 diabetes (T1D) and caregivers in a low-resource setting. Research Design and Methods This prospective study conducted at the Kenyatta National Hospital purposively enrolled persons aged 4-25 years who had been on management for T1D for at least six months, and caregivers of those under 18 years. Fourty youth living with T1D used CGM for three months in place of self monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG). The System Usability Scale (SUS), a Theoretical Framework of Acceptability-based questionnaire, the Diabetes Distress Scale (DDS), the Glucose Monitoring Satisfaction Survey (GMSS), and a feasibility survey were administered. Outcomes were summarized descriptively, including means, medians, and frequencies using R statistical software. Results The median SUS score was 98.8 (IQR 92.5-100.0). Acceptability was high, and the median total GMSS score improved from 3.73 to 4.73. Among adolescents and adults, the median overall DDS score reduced from 1.54 to 1.36, with reductions in scores in all domains, except for hypoglycemia distress which increased, and physician distress which remained low. Among caregivers, the median overall DDS score declined from 2.05 (moderate distress) to 1.90 (low distress), with modest reductions in teen management and parent-teen relationship distress and a slight increase in personal distress. Median CGM active wear time was 89%. Conclusion This study comprehensively evaluated CGM across usability, acceptability, and feasibility outcomes, with the findings supporting the integration of CGM into routine diabetes management in low-resource settings. The short follow-up period, however, may not capture changing perceptions or long-term adherence.

13
Young people with obesity and rare disease - genotypes, phenotypes and healthcare use

Chia, C.; Baker, K.

2026-08-31 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.08.25.26361359 medRxiv
Top 0.9%
0.5%
Show abstract

Obesity is a significant public health concern. Early-onset obesity in the context of rare disease can reflect genetically-mediated pathology or elevated susceptibility through indirect mechanisms. Mapping the diverse characteristics and needs of young people with obesity in the rare disease population is a first step toward mechanistic and translational research. We carried out a retrospective comparative analysis of demographic, genotypic, phenotypic and health service utilisation data for young people with obesity (cases: n=500) and without obesity (controls: n=11,444) from the UK 100,000 Genomes Project rare disease cohort. Cases and controls were recruited prior to genomic diagnosis, across clinical disorder categories. We observed significant association between socioeconomic deprivation and obesity risk. Young people with obesity had significantly higher utilisations of acute care and mental health services, indicating an overall higher health burden. A curated panel of 519 candidate obesity-associated genes demonstrated aggregate association with obesity, although no single gene reached significance. Phenotypic comparison between cases and controls highlighted increased multi-organ and neurological system involvement, highlighting the overlap between neurodevelopmental and obesity risks. Within the case group, we conducted cluster analysis to identify early-onset obesity groups with different phenotypic profiles, potentially arising from different causal pathways - this identified six obesity subgroups of interest, with differing involvement of neurodevelopmental and other systems. Our study confirms that obesity co-occurs with a wide range of factors within the rare disease population, and is associated with significant physical and mental health needs, requiring holistic lifelong care.

14
Obesity Endotypes Unmask Heterogeneous Responses to Healthy Lifestyle Behaviors

Malik, D.; Kim, M. S.; Shim, I.; Sui, Y.; Abou-Karam, R.; Song, M.; Won, H.-H.; Natarajan, P.; Ellinor, P. T.; Fahed, A. C.

2026-08-31 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.08.25.26361367 medRxiv
Top 1.0%
0.4%
Show abstract

Background Lifestyle interventions are central to obesity prevention and management, yet interindividual variability in response remains incompletely understood. Here, we leveraged genetically defined, distinct obesity endotypes to examine lifestyle-body mass index (BMI) associations across biological pathways. Methods In the UK Biobank, we analyzed 305,713 participants with partitioned polygenic scores (pPSs) representing 10 obesity endotypes. We evaluated interactions between endotype-specific genetic susceptibility and physical activity, diet, sedentary behavior, and sleep on BMI using multivariable linear regression. Primary findings were externally evaluated in the All of Us Research Program using Fitbit-derived lifestyle measures. Results Favorable lifestyle behaviors were associated with lower BMI for all obesity endotypes, but the magnitude of these associations varied significantly across endotypes. Higher endotype-specific pPSs strengthened the benefits of physical activity (7 endotypes), healthy diet (3 endotypes), nonsedentary behavior (5 endotypes), and adequate sleep (7 endotypes) on BMI. Distinct endotypes demonstrated the greatest responsiveness to different lifestyle domains, with the metabolically unhealthy endotype showing the strongest interaction with physical activity, metabolically healthy endotype with sedentary behavior, hypothalamic dysregulation endotype with diet, and hypoinsulin 2 endotype with sleep, corresponding to differences in BMI of 0.22-0.49 kg/m2 between the highest and lowest pPS deciles. These interaction patterns were consistent in the All of Us cohort. Conclusions Obesity endotypes modify the association between lifestyle behaviors and BMI, demonstrating that responsiveness to lifestyle behaviors is heterogeneous and pathway dependent. These findings provide a framework for precision obesity prevention by identifying individuals who may derive greater benefit from specific lifestyle interventions.

15
Toward Transportable Acute Kidney Injury Prediction: An Explainable XGBoost Model with Temporal Validation Using MIMIC-IV

Okundaye, D. O.; Isiekwene, C. C.

2026-09-03 health informatics 10.64898/2026.09.01.26360393 medRxiv
Top 1%
0.4%
Show abstract

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a frequent complication within intensive care units, with its sudden onset often missed. This is especially important because a timely window for intervention is required as delayed detection leads to progressively worse outcomes. Existing machine learning and deep learning models have contributed to closing this gap, but their complexity, requiring hundreds to thousands of features, and lack of generalisation pose a limitation that prevents them from being integrated into clinical workflows across different electronic health-record ecosystems. This study presents a 37-feature XGBoost model trained on the MIMIC-IV dataset with 5.4% positive cases, with hyperparameters optimised via Optuna and probabilities calibrated using isotonic regression, designed for transportability across clinical settings. Validation was conducted internally using a temporal patient-level split simulating prospective deployment, training on 2008-2016 data and testing on 2017-2022 data"External validation was performed on the eICU Collaborative Research Database, a multi-centre dataset spanning 208 US hospitals, using the trained model without retraining. SHAP TreeExplainer was used to provide feature-level explainability for individual predictions. Internal testing yielded an AUROC score of 0.794 for predicting AKI onset within a 12-24 hour window. External validation produced a 0.750 AUROC without retraining. Equitable discrimination was observed across gender, age, chronic kidney disease presence, race, and AKI stages on both datasets, with a 95% internal CI of 0.789-0.799 confirming the model's estimate stability. These results suggest that clinically useful prediction systems are achievable with substantially fewer features than current models require.

16
Relation of Self-Reported Race and Genetic Ancestry to Hypertension Prevalence Among Hispanics/Latinos: The Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos

Montanez-Valverde, R. A.; Kim, V.; Duran-Luciano, P.; Yuan, Y.; Sofer, T.; Kaplan, R. C.; Gallo, L. C.; Talavera, G. A.; Perreira, K. M.; Daviglus, M. L.; Rosas, S. E.; Llabre, M. M.; Elfassy, T.; Li, X.; Isasi, C. R.; Rodriguez, C. J.

2026-09-03 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.09.01.26361995 medRxiv
Top 1%
0.3%
Show abstract

Background. The imprecision of current metrics to capture the complex genetic admixture and racial identity among Hispanic/Latino individuals in the United States [US] is a concern. We examined the relationship of self-reported race and genetic ancestry with hypertension [HTN] among Hispanics/Latinos. Methods. Cross-sectional study of the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL), including 10,586 Hispanic/Latino unrelated adults. Genetic ancestry: West African [AA], Amerindian [AI], and European [EA]. Self-reported race: White, Black, Native American, or Multiple/Missing (More than one race or Unknown/Not reported/Refused). HTN: systolic (SBP) [&ge;]130 mmHg, diastolic blood pressure (DBP) [&ge;]80 mmHg, and/or use of HTN medications. Age- and sex adjusted models were used. Results. Self-reported race was White (38{middle dot}6%), Black (3{middle dot}6%), Native American (4{middle dot}1%), and Multiple/Missing (53{middle dot}7%), with Unknown/Not reported/Refused representing 32{middle dot}7%. Black and White Hispanics/Latinos had the greatest AA (55{middle dot}7%) and EA (69{middle dot}3%) ancestries, respectively. Each 10% AA increase was associated with OR 1{middle dot}15, SBP beta +0{middle dot}9 mmHg, and DBP beta +0{middle dot}7 mmHg. Conversely, each 10% AI increase was associated with OR 0{middle dot}83, SBP beta -0{middle dot}4 mmHg, and DBP beta -0{middle dot}6 mmHg. HTN prevalence was highest among those with Black race or in the highest AA quantile (45{middle dot}6% and 48{middle dot}0%, respectively), and lowest among those with Native American race or in the highest AI quantile (37{middle dot}6% and 26{middle dot}7%, respectively). Conclusion. One-third of Hispanics/Latinos did not self-report race. Black or White self-reporting race did somewhat relate to AA or EA ancestry, respectively. HTN profiles were related to self-reported race and genetic ancestry in this admixed population.

17
GLP-1/GIP Uptake, Indication, and Access Pathways Among US Adults in the Understanding America Study

Chaturvedi, R. R.; Gracner, T.; Perez-Arce, F.; Suen, S.-c.; Jin, J.; Orriens, B.; Pacula, R. L.; Sexton Ward, A.; Haile, R.; Kapteyn, A.

2026-09-02 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361368 medRxiv
Top 2%
0.2%
Show abstract

Importance: Evidence on GLP-1/GIP therapies is largely derived from trials enrolling selected populations or medical records that miss utilization outside healthcare channels. No nationally representative cohort has characterized real-world uptake, indications, and access. Objective: To characterize GLP-1/GIP prevalence, indication, clinical profile, and access. Design: Prospective cohort study with three GLP-1/GIP surveillance waves (March 2024, December 2024, October 2025). Setting: The Understanding America Study, an address-based, nationally representative panel of approximately 15,000 US adults aged 18+ years initiated in 2014. Participants: UAS participants responding to at least one surveillance wave (n=9150). Exposures: GLP-1/GIP use status (never vs any use, comprising current and former use), self-reported primary indication (diabetes, weight loss, or other), and access pathway (traditional vs non-traditional). Main Outcomes and Measures: Survey-weighted prevalence of GLP-1/GIP use, overall and by indication and access pathway; sociodemographic, cardiometabolic, treatment, and access characteristics; and smartwatch-derived resting heart rate, heart rate variability, maximum activity heart rate, step count, and sleep duration and variability. Results: Among n=9150 adults (1274 with any use; 60.9% female; median age 53 years), weighted prevalence increased 46%, from 8.2% (March 2024) to 12.0% (October 2025) representing 32 million. Weight-loss indications grew, reaching nearly half of use (4.1% to 5.6%); diabetes-indicated use was stable (5.3% to 5.4%). Users carried high cardiometabolic burden (obesity, 68.2%; diabetes, 53.6%) but diverged by indication: diabetes-indicated users were older (median, 59 vs 49 years), whereas weight-loss-indicated users were more often female (69.9% vs 51.3%) and healthier. One in three users (~9 million) had non-traditional access, especially in weight-loss-indicated users, of whom 33% had no conventional prescription; 41% used compounding, online, or foreign pharmacies; and, 43% lacked coverage. Non-traditional users were five times as likely to report an unlisted, likely compounded formulation (19.8% vs 4.1%). All p<0.05. Conclusions and Relevance: Real-world GLP-1/GIP use has grown rapidly and diversified substantially in indication, access, and population profile. One in 3 users obtained treatment through nontraditional channels largely invisible to claims data, raising long-term safety, efficacy, and coverage questions. GLIMMER provides a public, nationally representative longitudinal evidence base for future payer and provider decisions.

18
Clinical Reference Percentiles for AI-derived Epicardial Adipose Tissue: A Multicenter Study

Kamagate, A.; Shanbhag, A.; Buchwald, M.; Miller, R. J. H.; Khanna, S.; Zuhair Kassem, T.; Kwiecinski, J.; Bullock-Palmer, R.; Zhang, W.; Marcinkiewicz, A. M.; Yi, J.; Ramirez, G.; Lemley, M.; Killekar, A.; Kavanagh, P. B.; Liang, J. X.; Slipczuk, L.; Travin, M. I.; Alexanderson, E.; Carvajal-Juarez, I.; Packard, R. R.; Al-Mallah, M.; Ruddy, T. D.; deKemp, R. A.; Buechel, R. R.; Einstein, A. J.; Acampa, W.; Knight, S.; Le, V. T.; Mason, S.; Rosamond, T. L.; Miller, E. J.; Chareonthaitawee, P.; Berman, D. S.; Dey, D.; Di Carli, M. F.; Slomka, P.

2026-08-31 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.08.28.26360111 medRxiv
Top 2%
0.2%
Show abstract

Background and Aims: Epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) has emerged as an important cardiovascular biomarker that reflects both inflammatory and cardiometabolic risk. EAT volume and density vary significantly across populations, yet there is a lack of multicenter studies investigating the predictive value of population-specific EAT percentiles. Methods: In this multicenter study, we retrospectively analyzed low-dose computed tomography correction scans from 42,842 patients undergoing myocardial perfusion imaging. A derivation cohort of 15,082 patients was used to establish sex- and age-specific nomograms for EAT density and EAT volume indexed to body surface area. Percentile-based thresholds were tested for outcome prediction in a validation cohort of 27,760 patients. For clinical implementation, we developed an online EAT percentile calculator. Results: Percentile curves demonstrated increased BSA-indexed EAT volume and decreasing EAT density with age. Over a median follow-up of 3.6 years (IQR: 1.83 - 5.14), 4,956 patients experienced a nonfatal myocardial infarction or death. In multivariable Cox models, patients above the 95th sex- and age-specific percentile had significantly worse outcomes for BSA- indexed EAT volume [adjusted hazard ratio 1.30, 95% CI: 1.14 - 1.49, p < 0.001] and EAT density [adjusted hazard ratio 1.7, 95% CI: 1.51 - 1.92, p<0.001] when compared to patients below the 50th percentile (p<0.001). Conclusion: Age- and sex-specific EAT percentiles provide a clinically interpretable framework for contextualizing automated EAT measurements and identifying patients at increased cardiovascular risk. EAT density was a stronger prognostic marker and identified elevated risk even among patients with normal BMI, supporting its potential to provide information beyond conventional anthropometric assessment.

19
Medial Plantar Nerve Shear Wave Elastography and Viscosity Imaging for Differentiating Mild from Moderate Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy

Gao, X.; Li, Y.

2026-09-02 radiology and imaging 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361645 medRxiv
Top 2%
0.1%
Show abstract

Objective: To examine how medial plantar nerve shear wave speed (Cs) and viscosity coefficient (Vi) are associated with the severity of diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN), and to assess their ability to differentiate adjacent severity categories. Materials and Methods: Based on TCSS, the 113 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus were assigned to the non-DPN (n = 33), mild DPN (n = 46), and moderate DPN (n = 34) groups. Medial plantar nerve Cs and Vi were measured using shear wave elastography and viscosity imaging. Receiver operating characteristic analysis evaluated Cs, Vi, and their logistic regression-based combination; areas under the curves (AUCs) were compared using DeLong tests. Results: Cs and Vi increased progressively across the three groups (both P < 0.001). For non-DPN versus mild DPN, the AUCs of Cs, Vi, and the combined model were 0.688 (95% CI, 0.604-0.772), 0.741 (0.660-0.822), and 0.745 (0.665-0.826), respectively, without significant pairwise differences. For mild versus moderate DPN, the corresponding AUCs were 0.707 (0.625-0.789), 0.794 (0.724-0.865), and 0.799 (0.731-0.867). The combined model outperformed Cs (P = 0.045), whereas Cs versus Vi and Vi versus the combined model did not differ significantly (P = 0.162 and 1.000, respectively). Conclusion: Medial plantar nerve Cs and Vi increased with DPN severity. Their combination improved discrimination between mild and moderate DPN compared with Cs alone but not with Vi alone. Quantitative medial plantar nerve viscoelastic assessment may complement clinical severity grading.

20
GLP-1 Receptor Agonist Initiation and Anti-VEGF Treatment Frequency in Diabetic Macular Edema: an IRIS(R) Registry Cohort Study

Nagalamadaka, P.; Ross, C. J.; Gilbert, J. B.; Stillman, H.; Ghauri, S. Y.; Dutton, S. M.; Kearney, W.; Li, J. H.; Leong, A.; Singh, R. P.; Krzystolik, M. G.

2026-08-31 ophthalmology 10.64898/2026.08.29.26361426 medRxiv
Top 2%
0.1%
Show abstract

Purpose: To evaluate whether initiation of GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) is associated with anti-VEGF treatment burden in type 2 diabetes patients with diabetic macular edema (DME) in the IRIS(R) Registry (Intelligent Research in Sight). Methods: Incident GLP-1RA initiators were matched 1:1 with controls via Mahalanobis distance matching (9,896 pairs; N=19,792) on sociodemographics, DME risk factors, and factors influencing GLP-1RA prescription including hypertension, obesity, chronic kidney disease. A longitudinal mixed-effects event-study model evaluated monthly anti-VEGF injection frequency over a 36-month window (12 months before through 24 months after initiation), adjusting for DME duration. Visual acuity (VA) and central subfield thickness (CST) were secondary outcomes. Results: Following GLP-1RA initiation, anti-VEGF injection trajectories did not significantly differ between the matched GLP-1RA and control cohorts (interaction coefficients -0.18 to 1.59, P>0.05). Likewise, no differences in VA were observed between cohorts (-0.05 to 0.04 logMAR, P>0.05) or CST (-14.12 to 33.58 {micro}m, P>0.05). Conclusion: In these matched cohorts, GLP-1RA initiation was not associated with the trajectory of anti-VEGF use or changes in VA or CST. Precis We used the American Academy of Ophthalmology IRIS(R) Registry (Intelligent Research in Sight) to identify patients with DME. In 19,792 matched patients, there was no significant reduction in injection frequency post GLP1-RA initiation and no significant change in VA or CST.