Semaglutide Initiation and Treatment Duration On Suicidality Risk in US Veterans With Type 2 Diabetes

ImportanceSemaglutide, a glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA), is a highly effective medication to treat type 2 diabetes and obesity. However, concerns about potential suicidality persist, creating clinical uncertainty about its neuropsychiatric safety. ObjectiveTo assess risks of suicidality after initiating semaglutide compared to initiating SGLT2i and by duration of continuous semaglutide treatment. DesignActive-comparator, new-user target trial emulation to estimate inverse probability-weighted marginal cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs). For duration-of-treatment analyses, we used clone-censor-weight methods to estimate exposure-adjusted effects. SettingVeterans Health Administration. ParticipantsU.S. Veterans with type 2 diabetes receiving care from March 1, 2018 to September 1, 2025. ExposureInitiation of semaglutide vs SGLT2i; duration of semaglutide use ([&le;]6, 7-12, >12 months). OutcomesIncident suicidal ideation; suicide attempt or death; and a composite outcome. ResultsA total of 102,361 Veterans met inclusion criteria, including 11,478 new initiators of semaglutide and 90,883 new initiators of an SGLT2i. After overlap weighting, baseline characteristics were well balanced between treatment groups (mean [SD] age, 60.1 [11.7] years; BMI, 37.8 [6.8] kg/m2; hemoglobin A1c, 7.0% [1.4]; 85.5% male; 61.9% non-Hispanic White). During a median follow-up of 2.2 years, 9077 incident suicidal ideation events and 696 suicide attempts or deaths occurred. The incidence rate of suicidal ideation was 56.3 and 37.7 per 1000 person-years among semaglutide initiators and SGLT2i initiators, respectively (hazard ratio [HR], 0.99; 95% CI, 0.93-1.06; P = 0.86). For suicide attempts or deaths, the incidence rates were 4.30 and 2.64 per 1000 person-years, respectively (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.84-1.31; P = .86). In adherence-adjusted analyses, sustained semaglutide treatment for more than 12 months, compared with 6 or fewer months, was associated with a 74% lower risk of suicide attempts or deaths (HR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.14-0.54; P<.001). ConclusionAmong U.S. Veterans with type 2 diabetes, initiators of semaglutide were not observed to have an increased risk of suicidality compared with initiators of SGLT2i. Those with longer semaglutide treatment (beyond 12 months) had decreased risk of suicide attempt or death, suggesting longer term treatment is safe and may protect against for those outcomes.