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FACETS

Canadian Science Publishing

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match FACETS's content profile, based on 14 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
Mapping Coastal Forest Retreat Using Convolutional Neural Networks and Different Satellite Imagery

Tajudeen, T. T.; Ardon, M.; Tulbure, M.; Martin, K. L.

2026-08-22 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.18.745552 medRxiv
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Coastal forests are increasingly threatened by saturated soil and elevated salinity levels resulting from sea level rise, saltwater intrusion, and storm surges. In response to rising salinization and flooding, healthy coastal forests that rely on freshwater (both wetland forests and low-elevation upland forests) are transitioning into landscapes dominated by dead or dying trees, known as ghost forests. Situated among salt-tolerant shrubs and grasses, ghost forests eventually become marshes or open water. Here, our main objective was to quantify the dynamics and pathways of these forest landscape conversions, as well as the factors contributing to the changes, which is vital for understanding the progression of coastal ecosystem degradation and forecasting future changes. We focused first on identifying the best method to track forest landscape change by exploring the role of multiple remote sensing indices (i.e., multispectral, bi-seasonal, topographical, and phenological metrics) in enhancing the performance of deep learning models (convolutional neural networks, CNNs) for land cover classification in the coastal plain of North Carolina using surface reflectance of Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 images. Then, we used the best available data (Landsat 8) to understand long-term change and identify patterns of land cover change from 1985 to 2021. Our study reveals that incorporating phenology and topographical indices enhances the separability of the ghost forests class from all other vegetation classes. In our assessment, the higher-resolution Sentinel-2 data (F1 Score = 96.3) outperformed Landsat images (F1 score = 93.4) for the 2021 co-available year. However, Landsat remains an important tool used due to its long-term data record. Therefore, we used Landsat to determine that 21% of forests were lost between 1985 and 2021, and that the rate of loss is increasing. Between 2010 and 2021, 23,876 ha of forest were converted to marsh, ghost forest, and shrub, which is 1.5 times higher than the 16,968 ha lost between 1985 and 2010. These conversions from forest to ghost forest and marshes were driven primarily by proximity to the channel, salinity, and the increasing rate of relative sea level rise (RSLR), which are the key environmental drivers of observed changes. By quantifying these changes, we highlight regions most vulnerable to environmental stressors, providing a basis for targeted conservation strategies.

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Guardians of our Rivers: transforming river health assessment through macroinvertebrate monitoring with citizen scientists

Lewis, R.; Dodd, K.; Macadam, C.; Matthews, I.; Pulver, S. R.

2026-08-27 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.26.739408 medRxiv
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Freshwater ecosystems in Scotland are increasingly threatened by multiple interacting stressors, including pollution, hydrological alteration, land use change, and climate-driven pressures. Scotland's rivers are amongst the most physically diverse and dynamic in the UK, contributing significantly to the country-s economy and natural heritage. Monitoring 125,000 km of waterways presents an issue, with limited funding and capacity of environmental agencies creating an environmental monitoring deficit at a time when robust data are essential for delivering national and global biodiversity targets. Citizen science offers a scalable, community driven approach to strengthening environmental evidence. This study evaluates the development, implementation, and outcomes of Guardians of our Rivers (GooR), a nationwide citizen science programme using macroinvertebrate-based river health assessments based on the Anglers' Riverfly Monitoring Initiative (RMI) established by the Riverfly Partnership. Between 2022 and 2025, GooR trained more than 850 volunteers, established 123 monitoring sites across Scotland, and generated over 860 surveys-surpassing the previous 16 years of aquatic invertebrate monitoring efforts. Standardised field training, full equipment provision, and structured support enabled high-quality data collection across diverse catchments. The establishment of nationally applied trigger and target thresholds created a consistent mechanism for detecting ecological deterioration and ensured that verified trigger breaches (n = 39 in 2025) resulted in formal investigation or follow-up. Analysis of national abundance patterns revealed ecological and biogeographic trends across the eight RMI taxa, confirming data sensitivity to habitat differences, water quality, and regional pressures. A detailed case study of the Lothian Esk catchment demonstrated the programme's capacity to detect seasonal macroinvertebrate dynamics and site level ecological trajectories over time. Overall, GooR illustrates how well-designed and well-supported citizen science can deliver high resolution spatiotemporal datasets, enhance early warning systems, empower communities, and make a meaningful contribution to promoting river health. Importantly, GooR forged a working partnership with Scottish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA) that allowed communities to not only gather data but also transformed the way citizen science is recognized as contributing to freshwater conservation. Continued investment and long-term support will be essential to sustain these gains and realise the full potential of citizen-driven freshwater stewardship.

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Southern (California) Sea Otter Population Status and Trends at San Nicolas Island, 2023-Winter 2026

Tomoleoni, J. A.; Yee, J. L.; Seacord, E.; Staedler, M. M.; Hatfield, B. B.; Carswell, L.; Fujii, J.; Bentall, G. B.; Konrad, L.; Young, C.; Tinker, M. T.; Bowen, L.

2026-08-31 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.28.747881 medRxiv
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The southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) population at San Nicolas Island, California, has been monitored annually since the translocation of 140 sea otters to the island was completed in 1990. Monitoring efforts have varied in frequency and method across years. In 2017, in accordance with the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2016, the U.S. Navy and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service formally initiated a sea otter monitoring and research plan to determine the effects of military readiness activities on the growth or decline of the southern sea otter population at San Nicolas Island. The monitoring program, at its basic level, includes quarterly seasonal surveys of population abundance, distribution, and foraging activity. This report presents data from the program with a focus on the recent three years from winter 2023 through winter (February) 2026. From 2023 to 2026, we measured an 8.1-percent per annum decrease in population abundance (95-percent confidence interval =1.1-14.6 percent), with 106 total individuals counted as of February 2026. Historically, sea otter habitat usage at San Nicolas Island was concentrated on the west end of the island. Between 2017 and 2019, we observed increased seasonal usage of the north and south sides of the island, and in 2020-2022, a large (approximately 30-40 individuals) group of sea otters (raft) took up residence off the east end. During 2023-2026 the east end raft disappeared, and sea otters returned to their historical habitat usage patterns at the west end of the island. Foraging data were collected from summer 2023 to winter 2026 on a total of 461 foraging dives in 32 foraging bouts, and the majority of identified prey on successful dives (n=325) were sea urchins (124) followed by snails (48), bivalves (41) and crabs (23). One lobster and one octopus were also identified among the sea otter prey items. We combined these data with data from 2020-2022 to estimate overall energy intake rates that averaged 7.7 kilocalories per minute (95-percent credible interval =6.6-9.1 kilocalories per minute). These results can be useful to the planning of future monitoring and research of sea otters at San Nicolas Island.

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Exploring the use of state of nature metrics to screen global business operations for ecological sensitivity and to select priority sites for disclosure

Boakes, E. H.; Butchart, S. H. M.; Cierna, A.; Dunn, K.; Dimitrijevic, J.; Hawkins, F.; Jackson, O.; Le Marquand, J.; Mordue, S.; Gregory, R.

2026-08-26 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.25.747065 medRxiv
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Businesses are increasingly encouraged to disclose their nature-related dependencies, impacts, risks and opportunities. A common component of sustainability reporting is screening operational sites for ecologically sensitivity to identify locations for further evaluation and action. However, with 600+ biodiversity metrics available, selecting and interpreting appropriate metrics remains challenging for business. We developed a simple screening framework informed by the Taskforce for Nature-Related Financial Disclosures guidance, grouping eleven widely used global biodiversity metrics into four complementary [&prime]baskets[&prime], representing different aspects of biodiversity. We created hypothetical but realistic mining, onshore wind energy and agricultural companies, to assess how metric choice, buffer size, scoring approach and sensitivity thresholds influence screening outcomes. Our basket framework consistently identified similar high-priority sites across metric combinations, but site rankings varied with methodological choices. We recommend clearer guidance on metric selection and application, alongside greater transparency from business regarding assumptions, methods and limitations when screening sites for ecological sensitivity.

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Classifying and Mapping Wetland Vegetation Assemblages in Coastal Louisiana with Landsat Imagery, 1985-2025

Snedden, G. A.; Couvillion, B.; Schoolmaster, D. R.

2026-08-18 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.13.744705 medRxiv
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The tidal wetlands of Louisiana comprise about 25% of those found throughout the conterminous United States yet estimates of wetland loss rates in the region between 1932 and 2016 have exceeded 60 km2 yr-1. To mitigate further degradation and wetland loss in the region, a globally unprecedented $50B, 50-year plan for coastal Louisiana is driving restoration efforts, and demand exists from multiple stakeholders for regularly updated, regional-scale, accurate land cover information. We used machine learning (random forests; RF) and cloud computing to develop a new Landsat-based, marsh vegetation community geospatial dataset. The dataset depicts wetland vegetation community types defined in a previous study at annual (1985-2025) time steps at 30-m resolution. An RF algorithm was used to integrate training samples with feature variables derived from Landsat imagery, and the resulting geospatial data product achieved an overall correct classification rate of 78%. The approach for development of the land cover dataset presented here has potential for application in other coastal wetland habitats throughout the world.

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Decline in Kappaphycus alvarezii invasion in the Gulf of Mannar, India

Srikanth, Y. V.; Pulla, S.; Namboothri, N.; D'Souza, E.

2026-08-09 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.04.742698 medRxiv
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Blue Economy models position aquaculture as a key pathway to securing global food security. Species selected for aquaculture typically show rapid growth, high stress tolerance and fast biomass accumulation, but these same traits may increase their potential to become invasive when introduced beyond their native range. We investigated the invasion history and current status of the commercially important red seaweed Kappaphycus alvarezii in the Palk Bay-Gulf of Mannar region of India. This is one of the worlds largest cultivation hubs, a climatically vulnerable marine biodiversity hotspot, and one of the three regions to report invasion. We combined in-water surveys, interviews with wild seaweed collectors, and a review of published literature to reconstruct the history of invasion and assess current status. Invasion has declined substantially, with interviews indicating that the disappearance of invasive populations began around 2014. We discuss several non-mutually exclusive explanations for this decline, including climate change, loss of coral substrate, herbivory, and reduced vitality of the seaweed. Although the decline in invasion is encouraging for coral reefs, our findings raise questions about the ecological and socioeconomic consequences of introducing non-native aquaculture species under Blue Economy initiatives, particularly in ecologically sensitive regions vulnerable to climate change.

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Patterns and Drivers of Diatom Diversity and Biogeography in the North Pacific

Barral, A.; Suzuki, K.; Kikuchi, Y.; Nakaoka, S.-i.; Takao, S.; Nakaoka, S.

2026-08-31 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.30.746603 medRxiv
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Marine diatoms contribute to about 20% of global primary production. We present the first basin-scale, multiyear assessment of diatom communities in the North Pacific, combining taxonomically high-resolution RuBisCO large subunit gene (rbcL) metabarcoding with concurrent environmental measurements. Using a nine-year time series of daily samples resolved at the species level via ~500 bp rbcL fragments, we performed multivariate analyses across biogeographic provinces, identifying significant correlations between community structure and environmental drivers such as temperature and macronutrient availability. We report the prevalence of a previously overlooked centric diatom species in the North Pacific, Eunotogramma lunatum, which appears to be near-dominant even in subarctic high-nitrate, low-chlorophyll waters where pennate diatoms are typically favored. These results demonstrate the power of rbcL for large-scale ocean monitoring and provide a critical baseline for future studies of diatom population dynamics, climate change impacts, and ecosystem resilience in a key marine region.

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The devil in citizen science data: observation processes invalidate the causal inference that photovoltaic policy reduces bird diversity

Chen, Y.; Zhang, W.; Zou, H.-X.; Shi, X.; Liu, Y.

2026-08-27 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.25.746390 medRxiv
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Citizen science data are increasingly used to infer biodiversity change, but causal claims based on such data are credible only if sampling effort and its temporal shifts are explicitly modeled. Zhang et al. (1) used citizen science data to conclude that greater photovoltaic policy stringency, measured using the photovoltaic policy stringency index (PSI), reduced county-level bird diversity in China. We reproduced their fixed effects and instrumental variable estimates. However, the observed Shannon diversity derived from pooled citizen science records reflects both bird communities and sampling effort, which the authors' controls do not adequately capture. Accounting for observer count changed the reported statistically significant 2.10% decline in Shannon index to a nonsignificant 0.58% increase (P = 0.288) per one-standard-deviation increase in PSI, and rendered the instrumental variable estimate statistically indistinguishable from zero (P = 0.912). Yet observer count is only one of many sources of sampling bias. PSI was also associated with multiple dimensions of sampling effort, consistent with sampling effort acting as a potential mediator in the PSI-diversity chain. The sampling domain also shifted markedly from 2014 to 2023: recorded county-months increased almost 24-fold, median observer count rose from one to three, and zero-duration records declined from 57.2% to 0.17%. Without adequate adjustment, these shifts confound estimates of temporal change in observed bird diversity. Beyond its inadequate treatment of sampling effort, the original study also misinterpreted its statistical results. Although the reported R{superscript 2} values are high, they are dominated by county and year-month fixed effects, with PSI contributing a partial R{superscript 2} of only 0.048% on observed Shannon index. The PSI-photovoltaic-area correlation is also weak (r = 0.0414) and vanishes after accounting for fixed effects (P = 0.977). Furthermore, the released bird observation data contain many erroneous outliers, raising significant concerns about insufficiently rigorous data preprocessing and quality control. These results show that the released data cannot properly distinguish ecological change from sampling effort change. Robust inference from citizen science data requires checklist-level effort metadata, explicit correction for spatiotemporal sampling shifts, and close collaboration among researchers with complementary methodological and ecological expertise.

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Pumping stations negatively affect the distribution of critically endangered European eel (Anguilla anguilla); a landscape-scale study using environmental DNA metabarcoding

Monaghan, A. I. T.; Griffiths, N. P.; Sellers, G. S.; Lawson Handley, L.; Nunn, A. D.; Hänfling, B.; Macarthur, J. A.; Wright, R. M.; Cattaneo, M.; Bolland, J. D.

2026-09-01 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.28.746846 medRxiv
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Context Pumping stations pose a threat to fish globally through land use change, habitat fragmentation and entrainment risk, with the catadromous and critically endangered European eel particularly impacted. Objectives/methods Establish, model, assess and understand the present-day distribution of European eel and resident fishes in 152 pumping station catchments in a once extensive wetland (The Fens) using eDNA metabarcoding (855 samples over two and half years), with specific focus on anthropogenic influences on hydrological connectivity and habitat quality. A removal survey design maximised confidence in negative results while minimising time and consumable costs. Results Eel occurrence upstream of pumping stations was low (occupancy = 28.3%) and positively associated with catchment area, fish species richness and natural hydrological connectivity (gravity drainage or flooding) and negatively associated with distance from the tidal limit. Fish species richness replaced catchment area and improved model performance, potentially acting as a biotic indicator of habitat quality and connectivity. Pumped catchments with manually operated upstream water transfers had reduced eel presence, potentially linked to the direction of water flow or the timing of operation. By contrast, fish species richness increased in these catchments during summer, suggesting displacement into unsuitable long-term habitats. Physical habitat maintenance had no detectable effect on eel occurrence or fish species richness. Conclusions This study provides the first landscape-scale assessment of European eel distribution and drivers of occurrence in pumped river catchments. The highly novel and comprehensive insights have implications for European eel conservation as well as infrastructure and catchment management, including compliance with legislation (EC Regulation No. 1100/2007).

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Hawaiian Fish Sounds and their Potential as Acoustic Ecological Indicators on Coral Reefs

Berlik, E.; Dantzker, M. S.; Delikaris-Manias, S.; Duggan, M. T.; Rice, A. N.

2026-08-11 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.10.744083 medRxiv
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Coral reef monitoring needs scalable, non-invasive tools to complement resource-intensive traditional survey methods. Passive Acoustic Monitoring (PAM) offers a promising supplement, but its effectiveness is limited by the difficulty of attributing recorded sounds to species outside of previously well-characterized taxa. Using Omnidirectional Underwater Passive Acoustic Cameras (UPAC-360), we identified sounds from 31 reef fish species across 14 families on the Kona coast of Hawaii Island, including 13 not previously documented as soniferous. By releasing video and audio specimens, we have created the largest open-access collection of in-situ reef fish sounds to date for the Pacific. A subset of acoustically distinctive taxa--such as Hawaiian Dascyllus (Dascyllus albisella), Lei Triggerfish (Sufflamen bursa), soldierfishes (Myripristis spp.), wrasses, and herbivorous grazers--were identifiable in PAM recordings through manual acoustic and spectrogram review. Through identifying particular sounds linked to species with different ecological roles, these sounds have the potential to serve as indicators of reef function to increase the information and value coming from PAM surveys of Hawaiian and Pacific coral reefs.

11
The distribution of particle-associated Prochlorococcus across the global oceans

Anjur-Dietrich, M. I.; Vo, N. N.; Jones, K. G.; Mullet, J. I.; Parker, S. M.; Castro, K. G.; Stein, A. M.; Silvestri, S. M.; Biller, S. J.; Longnecker, K.; Chisholm, S. W.

2026-08-26 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.24.746807 medRxiv
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The picocyanobacterium Prochlorococcus is a fundamental contributor to ocean primary productivity. While its free-living population has been extensively studied, primarily using flow cytometric analyses, the size and distribution of its particle-associated population is not well understood. Using filter fractionated samples from cruises in the Pacific Ocean, Atlantic Ocean, and Mediterranean Sea, we generated metagenomic data using internal standards, yielding absolute genome equivalent counts of Prochlorococcus cells in different size fractions. We used these data to model a relationship between relative and absolute genome equivalent counts, yielding a correction factor that we validated using published datasets. We then applied the correction factor to size-fractionated global metagenomic data from the TARA Oceans Project, which has widespread Prochlorococcus cells in size fractions >1.6 m throughout the transects, to calculate the fraction of the total Prochlorococcus population in large size fractions. The ''particle-associated'' population fraction increased with net primary productivity. Dissolved inorganic carbon was also directly correlated with increased particle association, which, combined with other evidence, could indicate an association with upwelling. We also examined the relationship between particle-associated population and carbon export at 150 m by incorporating published estimates of carbon flux based on TARA optical scattering data. This study highlights the potential importance of particle-associated Prochlorococcus to carbon flux in marine ecosystems and offers a way to convert relative to absolute genome equivalents of microorganisms in archival metagenomic datasets.

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When are Biomedical Postdocs Ready for the Faculty Job Market? A Mixed-Methods Analysis of Metrics and Resilience Among Faculty Job Seekers

Haage, A.; Cheng, Y.; Smith, C. T.; Kozik, A. J.; Hagan, A. K.; Jadavji, N. M.

2026-08-21 scientific communication and education 10.64898/2026.08.14.744880 medRxiv
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PurposeDiscussions surrounding the biomedical faculty job market often focus on applicant competitiveness and external metrics such as number of publications and funding records. Consequently, there is typically less discussion about applicant readiness, the point at which applicants perceive themselves as prepared to enter the market. Since 2018 our group, the Faculty Job Market Collaboration (FJMC), has conducted annual end-of-cycle surveys of biomedical faculty job applicants, producing the largest longitudinal dataset on this process to date. MethodsWe employed a mixed-methods design examining faculty applicants in biological science fields in North America. Regression analyses were conducted on a longitudinal dataset of 729 respondents across multiple hiring cycles. To determine how applicants evaluated their own preparation, qualitative interviews were conducted with a separate cohort of biomedical postdoctoral applicants during the 2024-2026 job cycles. ResultsOur findings demonstrate that rather than depending on a single quantitative threshold, readiness is a multifaceted construct shaped by actionable and interpersonal drivers. Key factors influencing an applicants perceived readiness include taking agency to submit applications, receiving explicit support from a mentor, incorporating strategic use of artificial intelligence tools into application preparation, and their career stage. ConclusionBy distinguishing individual readiness from systemic assumptions of market competitiveness, this study highlights a blind spot in academic workforce development. Our results suggest that applicants can achieve readiness and successful outcomes through different combinations of support, strategy, and timing rather than a uniform metric profile. By integrating quantitative and qualitative data, our study provides an evidence-based framework for understanding applicant readiness and offers practical guidance to help trainees navigate the increasingly competitive academic job market. Teaser TextOur mixed-model analysis of the biomedical faculty job market is designed to help prospective faculty candidates assess their readiness to enter the job market. By integrating multiple indicators of academic productivity, funding success, and professional experience, our study provides evidence-based benchmarks that can guide applicants in evaluating their competitiveness and identifying areas for further development before pursuing faculty positions.

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Host and environment shape the giant clam-associated photosymbiont community

Quijano, J. B.; Tayaban, K.; Baquiran, J. I. P.; Maala, G. J.; Requilme, J. N. C.; Sayco, S. L. G.; Dolorosa, R. G.; Cabaitan, P. C.; Conaco, C.

2026-08-07 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.07.743467 medRxiv
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Giant clams are some of the largest bivalve molluscs. They form a vital partnership with Symbiodiniaceae dinoflagellates that supply most of their energetic requirements. However, the factors that shape giant clam-associated photosymbiont communities remain unknown. Here, we profiled Symbiodiniaceae communities using ITS2 metabarcoding in eight giant clam species (Hippopus hippopus, H. porcellanus, Tridacna crocea, T. derasa, T. gigas, T. maxima, T. noae and T. squamosa) from 11 sites across the Philippine archipelago. Symbiodiniaceae community structure was shaped by an interplay between giant clam host and environment. Most giant clams were dominated by members of a single symbiont genus, with Cladocopium as the most prevalent, followed by Durusdinium and Symbiodinium. However, giant clam hosts also exhibited flexibility in their symbiotic partners that was evident across sites. Differences in giant clam-associated symbiont communities may contribute to differences in holobiont function and adaptability to variable environments. These findings deepen our understanding of giant clam-Symbiodiniaceae associations, offering a framework for predicting how giant clams may be affected by increasingly stressful reef conditions and, more importantly, informing strategies to improve mariculture and conservation practices.

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Jelly belly: Recovery of fish eDNA from Cassiopea medusae gastrovascular cavities across the Florida Keys

Muffett, K. M.; Sporre, M.; Miglietta, M. P.; Eytan, R.

2026-08-07 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.06.743372 medRxiv
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Ranges of small benthic fauna are notoriously difficult to assess. In some of these cases, modern eDNA methods can shed light on species occurrence. Here we conduct an exploratory study on the fish eDNA recoverable from the gastrovascular cavities of the easy-to-sample pore water siphoning benthic invertebrate, Cassiopea, across six sites within the Florida Keys. Twenty-seven fish 12S identities were recovered from water samples, two from sediment samples, and seventeen from Cassiopea gut swabs. In total, thirty-two different species were identified from nineteen families, including one shark species (Ginglymostoma cirratum), and five species of cryptobenthic reef fishes (f: Gobiidae, Labrisomidae). Additionally, five species were identified from medusae samples that were not recovered in water or sediment samples. The species identities recovered may provide insight into the fish in direct proximity to Cassiopea assemblages, as well as indicate that Cassiopea may accrue disproportionate eDNA from cryptobenthic reef fish compared to surrounding environmental samples. The unorthodox sampling technique of using eDNA recovered from jellyfish stomachs yields another avenue for epibenthic community data acquisition.

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Gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) survival in southern Illinois, USA

Pershyn, N.; Nielsen, C. K.; Bastille-Rousseau, G.

2026-08-21 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.20.746046 medRxiv
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Gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) populations in the Midwestern USA have suffered precipitous declines in recent decades, yet they are relatively understudied. However, understanding survival and cause-specific mortality is vital for declining populations and the limited existing survival studies have been performed outside of the Midwest. We equipped 13 gray foxes in southern Illinois with GPS radio collars to investigate their survival and cause-specific mortality. We calculated the Kaplan-Meier 6- and 12-month survival rates to be 0.79 (95% CI: 0.57-1.0) and 0.53 (95% CI: 0.27-1.0), respectively. We recorded 4 mortalities: 1 disease, 1 gunshot, and 2 unknown causes. While our study has a small sample size, it contributes key information on a data-deficient mesocarnivore suffering from a population decline driven by undefined causes. We recommend further research into the survival and mortality of this elusive mesocarnivore.

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Effects of gamebird release on the non-gamebird dietary diversity and composition of red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in Southern England

Pedersen, S.; Sage, R. B.; Woodburn, M. I. A.; Coomes, J. R.; Werling, J.; Tyler, C. R.

2026-08-21 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.20.745779 medRxiv
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The red fox, Vulpes vulpes, is abundant in England and can exert limiting effects on their avian and mammalian prey. Large-scale gamebird releases in the UK may be sustaining high predator numbers, leading to greater predation on other prey species, especially once gamebird stocks are depleted. However, little is known how gamebird release affects the broader diet of the red fox. Here we used DNA metabarcoding to assess the diet of foxes from 18 agricultural estates in Southern England, 10 of which released large numbers of gamebirds (red-legged partridges - Alectoris rufus, and common pheasants - Phasianus colchicus) and 8 which did not. Scats were collected over one year, allowing for seasonal investigation of the foxes' diet. We investigated the vertebrate species consumed and compared the non-gamebird dietary diversity and composition between release and non-release estates and across seasons. The field vole (Microtus agrestis) was found to be the most frequently predated species overall. Brown hares and field voles were detected more on release sites, while bank voles and dog faeces were detected more on non-release sites. We found little evidence that foxes predate ground nesting birds or other species of concern. The dietary diversity was significantly lower on estates that released gamebirds, and this difference was most notable during the post-shoot, spring months (February to April). On both estate types, diversity was highest in the summer months. The altered predatory behaviour due to gamebird release is likely to affect the populations of the non-game prey of the red fox and this should be considered when designing policies regarding gamebird management and biodiversity conservation. Alternative predation combined with predator control may be reducing predation pressure on non-game prey where gamebirds are released, but high fox density elsewhere likely results in higher predation pressure on a wide range of species.

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No single measure is enough: Recovery of the Critically Endangered Mobula mobular requires integrated maximum bycatch mitigation and nursery area protection.

Chopra, M.; Salguero-Gomez, R.; Stevens, G. M. W.; Rowlands, G.; Karnad, D.; T., M.; Fernando, D.; Davis, K. J.

2026-08-19 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.18.744841 medRxiv
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As anthropogenic threats have intensified over the past 500 years, we find ourselves in the midst of a sixth mass extinction, with continued losses of biodiversity threatening ecosystem stability. This biodiversity loss has caused species extinctions across taxa, and placed several others at high risk of functional extinction. These disturbance-driven impacts represent one of the most acute biodiversity crises facing global marine systems. Species exhibiting slow life histories characteristically have low resilience to disturbance. Here, we assess the risk of functional extinction and identify policy pathways for population recovery of the slow-living, Critically Endangered elasmobranch, the spinetail devil ray (Mobula mobular). We develop a stochastic, state-structured Integral Projection Model (IPM) parameterised with demographic data collected from fishery landings data in India, the world's largest mobulid fishery, and supplemented with data on vital rates from published literature. Using the IPM, we estimate that the population is declining at approximately 12% annually, experiencing substantial limiting pressure from fisheries overexploitation and failing to approach its biological maximum growth potential. Our results indicate that populations of M. mobular will be at high risk of functional extinction if 'business as usual' harvest scenario persists for another decade. We further show that long-term population recovery is only possible if survival increases significantly across all size classes, especially among large reproductive females, alongside a concurrent increase in fecundity. We conclude that no single policy measure is sufficient to recover population of M. mobular along the southeastern coast of India. Instead, combined protection through maximum bycatch mitigation and protection of nursery areas in no-take zones will be required for population recovery. This research demonstrates that recovery of overexploited populations often requires integrated resource management across life stages, and that the Critically Endangered M. mobular warrants urgent conservation action to avoid functional extinction.

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The knowledge landscape of jaguar science: rapid growth, thematic structure, and regional inequalities

Elias, M. A. M.; Soares, P. T.; Diniz-Filho, J. A. F.; de Almeida Jacomo, A. T.; Silveira, T. J.; Silveira, L.

2026-08-21 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.17.745206 medRxiv
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Understanding how scientific effort is distributed is essential for evaluating the evidence available to guide species conservation. We assessed the temporal, thematic, methodological, and spatial organization of jaguar (Panthera onca) research across the species range. Using 1,028 bibliographic records, we applied a metadata-based scope filter, defining a primary analytical corpus of 857 articles and an inclusive sensitivity corpus of 989. We analyzed publication growth from 1946-2024, author-keyword networks, high-specificity research-domain and methodological indicators, article-based spatial concentration across nine regions, and anthropogenic context using the Human Impact Index. Publication output increased strongly and nonlinearly, with the negative-binomial generalized additive model explaining 96% of deviance. Population and abundance, human-wildlife conflict and coexistence, and movement and connectivity were the most frequent research domains, whereas camera trapping was the most frequent methodological approach. Spatial analyses included 237 georeferenced terrestrial articles. Research was strongly concentrated in the Pantanal, Mesoamerica, and Atlantic Forest, but was underrepresented relative to range area in the Andes and Choco-Darien, Amazon, and Guiana Shield. These patterns were stable to the broader scope definition. Research concentration showed no strong association with region-wide anthropogenic pressure, although studies within several extensive regions tended to occur in more human-influenced portions than the regional average. Jaguar research therefore shows substantial growth and partial alignment with applied conservation challenges but remains geographically uneven. Expanding representative research in underrepresented regions, while maintaining work in threatened landscapes, would strengthen the evidence base for range-wide conservation planning and improve coordination among countries, institutions, and regional research traditions.

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Air sampling in team congregate spaces for early detection of respiratory virus threats at the 2026 FIFA World Cup™

Simon, D.; Locksmith, T. J.; Minor, N. R.; Emmen, I. E.; Wilson, N. A.; O'Connor, E. J.; O'Connor, S. L.; O'Connor, D. H.

2026-08-18 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.08.16.26360542 medRxiv
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Objective. Respiratory infections are the leading cause of illness at major sporting events, yet surveillance relies on athletes recognising and reporting symptoms. We evaluated whether continuous air sampling with point-of-care molecular testing could detect respiratory-virus nucleic acids in an elite team's congregate spaces during competition, and whether the resulting signals were operationally useful. Methods. We performed a prospective, descriptive environmental-surveillance study following the Canadian men's national soccer team across five host cities during the 2026 FIFA World Cup (3 June to 4 July 2026). InBio Apollo bioaerosol samplers ran continuously in up to four team-designated rooms per hotel (physiotherapy, meal, equipment, and coaches' room or hallway). Filters were changed approximately twice daily, eluted on-site, and tested with the Cepheid Xpert Xpress(R) SARS-CoV-2/Flu/RSV plus assay. A sample was considered positive if any cycle-threshold (Ct) value was reported, as less than 45, for a target. Results. Of 174 air filters, there were 13 detections of virus genetic material (9 SARS-CoV-2, 3 influenza A virus, 1 influenza B virus, 0 RSV). Detections were sparse early and clustered late in the tournament. An influenza A signal appeared the morning a player was sent home febrile, and SARS-CoV-2 signals coincided with visibly ill hotel staff, with signals falling after ill staff were excluded. Conclusion. Air sampling with point-of-care testing is feasible in the mobile environment of an elite team and can surface behavior-independent viral signals during competition that may offer opportunities for earlier precautionary actions.

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Where and why alongshore variation in larval transport enables the establishment of introduced species

Pringle, J. M.; Lush, W. G.; Byers, J. E.

2026-08-19 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.14.744914 medRxiv
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After introduction, many non-native marine species are dispersed planktonically. Secondary spread within the non-native range has been shown to prevent the establishment of the introduced species if the advection of larvae prevents sufficient return of larvae to maintain the population in the face of competition with native species. However, those studies have largely neglected the effects of spatial variation in alongshore larval transport. We examine the introduction of a novel species with planktonic dispersal into a more realistic coastal environment which includes spatial variation in larval transport estimated from the Mercator Ocean 1/12th degree global circulation model. The introduction may either be from a distant habitat, or through range expansion. We find that there are locations in the global coastal ocean where introduced species are more likely to persist because of spatial variation of coastal currents. These include regions where alongshore larval transport diverges, such as estuaries. The location where a non-native species is introduced may not be where it flourishes - it cannot be assumed that the region where invading species are first noticed to be abundant is the region where it was introduced. We extend closed-population theory to open coastal systems to estimate persistence as a function of local circulation, habitat extent, and the competitive advantage of the introduced species. Software is provided which allows the estimations of regions where introduced species are more likely to persist and flourish as a function of larval depth behavior, planktonic duration and release timing.