Independent Validation of Test-Adjusted COVID-19 Incidence Estimates Using Wastewater Surveillance Data in Ontario, Canada

BackgroundCase-based infectious disease surveillance is subject to ascertainment bias when testing intensity varies across time and population subgroups. We previously developed a regression-based test adjustment methodology using Standardized Testing Ratios (STRs) to correct for differential testing patterns in COVID-19 surveillance data. Wastewater-based surveillance (WWS) measures viral burden in the community independently of diagnostic testing behavior, making it a valuable external validation tool for test-adjusted case estimates. MethodsWe analyzed 111 weeks of paired wastewater and case surveillance data from Ontario, Canada (July 19, 2020 to August 28, 2022). Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 signals from 107 sewersheds across 34 public health units were normalized within sewersheds and aggregated using population-weighted averages. We compared wastewater correlations with crude reported and test-adjusted case counts using Spearman rank correlations, linear regression, and negative binomial distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM), stratified by epidemic period. ResultsTest-adjusted cases correlated substantially more strongly with wastewater signals than crude reported cases overall (Spearman {rho} = 0.849 vs. 0.679; linear R{superscript 2} = 0.609 vs. 0.191). The advantage of test adjustment was greatest during the Omicron wave, when population-level diagnostic testing contracted sharply following PCR eligibility restrictions ({rho} = 0.924 vs. 0.604; R{superscript 2} = 0.815 vs. 0.470). DLNM incorporating the wastewater signal explained substantially more variance in test-adjusted than crude reported cases (McFadden pseudo-R{superscript 2} 0.898 vs. 0.776), despite similar lag-response structure for both outcomes. ConclusionsWastewater surveillance provides compelling independent validation of a previously described test adjustment methodology for COVID-19 case surveillance. The agreement between wastewater signals and test-adjusted cases was strongest precisely when testing scarcity was most severe, supporting the use of test adjustment to recover accurate infection dynamics from case surveillance data during periods of changing testing access and policy.