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Ecosphere

Wiley

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match Ecosphere's content profile, based on 53 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Spatial and temporal habitat availability declines towards and beyond the geographic range limit of a coastal dune endemic

Gillies, G. J.; Dungey, M. P.; Eckert, C. G.

2026-04-02 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.30.715381 medRxiv
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O_LIChanges in habitat structure across species distributions may contribute to the generation and maintenance of range limits, but few studies have evaluated this by directly measuring habitat availability across relevant spatial scales. C_LIO_LIHere, we test the predictions that coarse-scale and patch-level habitat availability decline towards and beyond the northern range limit of Pacific coastal dune endemic Camissoniopsis cheiranthifolia. We used aerial imagery and geographic information system (GIS) tools to measure the coarse-scale availability of coastal dune habitat in California and Oregon. The availability of finer-scale habitat patches specifically suitable for C. cheiranthifolia was measured in a 2-generation field survey of > 4,200 5m x 5m plots randomly distributed across 1100 km of coastal dune habitat transcending the species northern range limit. At each plot, we estimated the proportion of area that contained suitable habitat as well as recorded occupancy by C. cheiranthifolia. As an alternative approach to visually estimating habitat suitability, we recorded plant community composition at each plot to predict beyond-range habitat suitability using a random forest model. C_LIO_LIContrary to our predictions, we found that coastal dune habitat, measured coarsely from aerial imagery, was more abundant and continuous towards and beyond the northern range limit. At the fine scale, however, the proportion of plots with suitable habitat (patch suitability) and the proportion of habitat within plots that was suitable (patch size) declined across the range limit. Moreover, patches were more isolated from one another and, in one survey year, less temporally stable towards and beyond the range limit. Finally, occupancy by C. cheiranthifolia was less likely in smaller, more isolated, and temporally unstable patches, providing mechanistic insight to the previously observed decline in occupancy towards the range limit. C_LIO_LISynthesis: Taken together, our results suggest that fine-scale habitat patch configuration changes in ways that likely impede patch colonization, thereby reducing occupancy and limiting the species northern distribution. Thus, consideration of geographic variation in patch and landscape structure, rather than only coarse-scale habitat availability, may be essential for understanding the processes that limit species ranges. C_LI

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Status of Round Goby Invasion Fronts in New York and Quebec: Implications for Lake Champlain

George, S. D.; Diebboll, H. L.; Pearson, S. H.; Goldsmit, J.; Drouin, A.; Vachon, N.; Cote, G.; Daudelin, S.; Bartron, M. L.; Modley, M. D.; Littrell, K. A.; Getchell, R. G.; Fiorentino, R. J.; Sadekoski, T. R.; Finkelstein, J. S.; Darling, M. J.; Parent, G. J.; Atkins, L. M.

2026-03-25 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.23.712452 medRxiv
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Invasive round goby Neogobius melanostomus have advanced eastward through the state of New York and provinces of Ontario and Quebec over the past two decades and are approaching Lake Champlain, one of the largest lakes in North America. This manuscript describes international efforts to monitor round goby populations during 2021-2025 on (a) the southern approach to Lake Champlain via the Hudson River and Champlain Canal, and (b) the northern approach to Lake Champlain via the Saint Lawrence River and Richelieu River. Monitoring utilized environmental DNA (eDNA), backpack electrofishing, beach seining, benthic trawling, and viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV) testing. In the Champlain Canal, round goby were captured as far north as the downstream side of the C1 dam (97 kilometers [km] from Lake Champlain) while eDNA detections occurred as far north as the upstream side of the C2 dam (90 km from Lake Champlain). In the Richelieu River, round goby were captured as far south as Saint-Marc-sur-Richelieu (82 km from Lake Champlain) while the southern-most eDNA detections occurred near the Canadian side of the international border (4 km from Lake Champlain). Water temperature influenced habitat usage of round goby in the Champlain Canal, with catch rates in near-shore areas declining at < 10 {degrees}C. All VHSV test results were non-detections at the mouth of the Richelieu River, while one positive and two inconclusive results occurred along the Champlain Canal. Together, these data have informed multiple mitigation measures and have implications for management of aquatic invasive species across North America.

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Physiological responses of submerged freshwater macrophytes to multiple stressors

Mahdjoub, A. M.; Einspanier, S.; Gross, E. M.; Hilt, S.

2026-03-24 plant biology 10.64898/2026.03.23.713585 medRxiv
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O_LISubmerged macrophytes are central to freshwater ecosystems functioning but are declining globally under multiple anthropogenic stressors. We aimed to identify general patterns in physiological responses and interaction types, and to assess whether a mechanistic understanding of stressor interactions can be developed from published evidence. C_LIO_LIWe systematically reviewed 12,858 records, identified 172 relevant papers, and extracted effect sizes from 124 experiments included in the meta-analysis. C_LIO_LIMost studies examined combinations of nutrient enrichment, shading, toxic trace metals, warming, and emerging contaminants such as PFAS and microplastics, typically under simplified 2 x 2 factorial laboratory designs. Additive effects dominated (50%), while synergistic interactions were relatively infrequent (14%). Antagonistic interactions often reflected dominance of a single stressor or compensatory responses, whereas synergisms were most frequent with metals combined with co-stressors enhancing bioavailability. C_LIO_LIOur synthesis suggests that accumulated stressors cause negative, but not necessarily amplified, responses, although the limited number of experiments testing more than two stressors means synergistic effects may be underestimated. We propose Stuckenia pectinata as a model organism because of its cosmopolitan distribution, experimental tractability, and available genomic resources, and argue that expanding stressor complexity, duration, and taxonomic breadth will strengthen predictions of macrophyte responses and inform freshwater conservation under global change. C_LI

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Bumble Bee Abundance and Diversity Increase with Intensity of Tallgrass Prairie Restoration Intervention

Kochanski, J. M.; McFarlane, S. L.; Damschen, E. I.; Gratton, C.

2026-03-26 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.24.713996 medRxiv
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IntroductionHuman land-use intensification and the resulting habitat loss are primary drivers of insect pollinator declines. Habitat restoration offers a promising approach to counteract these declines, yet landscape-level evaluations of bee responses to restoration and management remain limited. We conducted a two-year, landscape-scale study in Wisconsin, USA, to assess how different intensities of tallgrass prairie restoration and management affect bumble bees (Bombus spp.). ObjectivesThis study aimed to determine whether (1) bumble bee abundance and diversity increase with assisted restoration, and (2) outcomes differ between low-(seeded only) and moderate-intensity (seeded and managed with prescribed fire) interventions. MethodsUsing catch-and-release surveys, we measured bumble bee abundance and diversity at 32 sites representing a gradient in restoration intervention: no intervention (unassisted recovery), low intervention, and moderate intervention. ResultsBumble bee abundance and diversity were higher at assisted restoration sites (low and moderate intervention) than at unassisted sites. Although both tended to be greater at moderate than low intervention intensities, these differences were not statistically significant. Bumble bee community composition also differed across intervention intensity, driven by shifts in dominant species (e.g., B. impatiens and B. griseocollis). Rarer taxa, including endangered and vulnerable species, occurred only at assisted restoration sites, with the largest populations at moderate intervention sites. Across all sites, bumble bee responses were strongly and positively associated with floral abundance, but not with semi-natural habitat in the surrounding landscape. ConclusionOur findings demonstrate that assisted grassland restoration can effectively increase bumble bee abundance and diversity, supporting its value as a conservation practice for pollinators. Implications for Practice: (1) Grassland restorations targeting plant communities can successfully support nontarget pollinators across a range of management intensities and landscape contexts. Adding seeds of pollinator-preferred plants could improve restorations with low floral abundance and diversity. (2) Management of existing restorations is important to maintain abundant floral resources and diverse pollinator communities. Because sites varied widely in prescribed fire use, our findings likely represent a conservative estimate of its benefits, and higher intervention intensity (e.g., repeated seeding, regular fire, mechanical or chemical shrub and invasive plants control) may further enhance outcomes for bumble bees.

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Increasing spatial approximation complexity can degrade prediction quality in distribution models

Ward, E. J.; Anderson, S. C.

2026-03-19 ecology 10.1101/2025.11.14.688354 medRxiv
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Spatial and spatiotemporal models are increasingly critical for understanding species distributions, tracking population change, and informing conservation decisions. As biological processes are influenced by increasing external pressures, including human disturbance or environmental change, accurate model predictions become essential for adaptive management. However, the reliability of spatial predictions depends on often-overlooked modelling choices, including the spatial resolution used to approximate underlying processes. Using long term monitoring data from a large-scale groundfish survey in the California Current ecosystem, we investigated how spatial model complexity affects the quality of ecological predictions and derived indices used for management. We fit spatial and spatiotemporal models of ocean temperature and fish biomass density for 27 commercially important species using varying levels of spatial resolution. We evaluated both in-sample and out-of-sample prediction, and effects on area-weighted biomass indices. Counter to common assumptions, increasing spatial approximation resolution did not universally improve predictions. Our case studies demonstrate that for many datasets, out-of-sample prediction quality peaked at intermediate spatial resolutions and declined at the finest scales. Through simulation testing, we found this pattern was strongest when spatial patterning had a small range and high spatial variance, and observation error was low. For most species, spatial resolution had a minimal effect on biomass trend estimates used in management, but for several commercially important rockfish species, resolution choices substantially affected both the scale and uncertainty of population indices. Our findings demonstrate that spatial model specification can substantially affect ecological inference, with direct implications for management and conservation planning. We provide practical guidance for ecologists on selecting appropriate spatial complexity through cross-validation. When out-of-sample prediction is a focus, appropriate approximation complexity should improve both parameter estimation accuracy and derived quantities.

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Microbe-mediated plant acclimation to drought may be rare in agriculture

Howard, M. M.; Bolin, L. G.; Bogar, G. D.; Evans, S. E.; Lennon, J. T.; Marquart-Pyatt, S. T.; Lau, J. A.

2026-04-04 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.02.715620 medRxiv
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Microbial communities can shift under drought in ways that enhance plant performance during drought ("microbe-mediated acclimation"). However, it is also possible for microbial communities to shift in ways that worsen the effects of drought ("mal-acclimation"). It is unclear how and where microbe-mediated acclimation vs. mal-acclimation occurs, or if there are types of soils or microbial communities that are more likely to harbor microbes that enhance plant acclimation and limit mal-acclimation. We tested for microbe-mediated plant acclimation/mal-acclimation to drought in soils from 21 maize farms in the midwestern United States, spanning a range of climate, soil types, and management practices. We first conditioned soil microbial communities to drought vs. well-watered conditions in a greenhouse and then tested for microbe-mediated acclimation by growing maize in soils inoculated with the conditioned microbial communities under drought and well-watered conditions. Drought-conditioned soils did not enhance plant performance under drought. In fact, one third of the farms exhibited mal-acclimation, especially under well-watered conditions where wet-conditioned soils reduced plant performance in well-watered contemporary conditions. Farm management practices, climate, soil texture, and microbial diversity generally did not predict when this microbe-mediated mal-acclimation occurred. Overall, these results suggest that in agricultural soils, microbes may frequently impede-rather than facilitate-plant acclimation to soil moisture levels. Open research statementThe plant and soil data used in this study are available via the Environmental Data Initiative repository at https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/f4a0db3a076cf6d8cef908947f82736e. The bacterial and fungal amplicon sequence data are available via the European Nucleotide Archive under accessions PRJEB110071 and PRJEB109827, respectively.

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Sharing the trail: recreation effects on bear behaviour in a Canadian Rocky Mountain Park

Dimitriou, A.; Gaynor, K. M.; Benson-Amram, S.; Percy, M.; Burton, C.

2026-04-04 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.02.714576 medRxiv
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Humans are profoundly reshaping the natural world. These changes are giving rise to complex and mutually risky dynamics between people and large carnivores. In protected areas across North America, bears (Ursus sp.) face rapidly rising recreation pressures that can alter their use of the landscape, either displacing them from high-quality habitats or drawing them into human-wildlife conflicts through habituation or attraction to anthropogenic resources. However, disentangling responses to recreation from other drivers can be difficult because human activity covaries with environmental and seasonal processes that also shape bear activity. We leveraged the partial closure of the popular Berg Lake Trail in Mount Robson Park, British Columbia, Canada, to investigate whether black (Ursus americanus) and grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) showed fear, attraction or neutral behavioural responses to varying recreation levels across multiple spatiotemporal scales. To understand both anticipatory responses to predictable patterns of human activity, and reactive responses to hiker events, we used detections from 43 camera traps over two years (July 2023-June 2025). We compared weekly habitat use, daily activity patterns, and direct responses to hikers (using Avoidance-Attraction Ratios; AARs) among camera sites and between open and closed sections of the trail. Our results revealed that both bear species exhibited patterns consistent with fear responses, while some black bear behaviours were also consistent with attraction responses. Both kinds of responses reflect anticipatory strategies rather than reactionary behaviours (i.e., no AAR effect). Neither species avoided recreation spatially at the weekly scale: black bears were detected more at site-weeks with greater recreation intensity, while grizzly bears were consistently detected more at sites closer to hiking trails. However, both species used daily temporal partitioning to avoid direct encounters with humans. These findings demonstrate scope for human-bear coexistence when recreation levels are managed to be moderate and predictable, and bears have sufficient space to segregate from humans during peak times. Thus, successful coexistence will hinge on co-adaptation by both bears and people. Understanding how recreation influences bear behaviour, and the spatiotemporal scale at which that occurs, is critical for guiding effective adaptive management aimed at fostering human-bear coexistence in high-traffic protected areas.

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Species-specific versus community-wide assays in eDNA monitoring of European eel Anguilla anguilla: Trade-offs between detection sensitivity and the value of additional community data

Monaghan, A. I. T.; Sellers, G. S.; Griffiths, N. P.; Lawson Handley, L.; Hänfling, B.; Macarthur, J. A.; Wright, R. M.; Bolland, J. D.

2026-03-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.19.712641 medRxiv
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Effective monitoring of the critically endangered European eel (Anguilla anguilla) is essential for conservation planning and regulatory decision-making, particularly in heavily fragmented rivers. Environmental DNA (eDNA) methods offer sensitive alternatives to traditional surveys, but there is uncertainty around whether targeted assays or community-wide approaches are better suited to achieve monitoring objectives. We compared eDNA metabarcoding and species-specific quantitative PCR (qPCR) for detecting A. anguilla across 145 pumped catchments in the Fens, East Anglia, England. All sites were sampled once initially, and sites negative for A. anguilla were re-sampled based on metabarcoding results. This allowed comparison of detection rates from a single water sample and site-level retrospective identification of sites where qPCR could have identified A. anguilla in earlier samples. The findings were also set in the context of the wider biodiversity information generated by metabarcoding. From the initial (single) water sample, qPCR detected A. anguilla at seven more sites than metabarcoding (17 versus 10). With repeated sampling, metabarcoding detected A. anguilla at 43 sites, including all but one of the sites where qPCR detected A. anguilla, and ten sites where qPCR did not detect A. anguilla within the same number of samples. Indeed, the additional sampling effort required to detect A. anguilla with metabarcoding at sites also positive with qPCR was small relative to the overall sampling effort. Furthermore, metabarcoding additionally detected 28 non-target fish species alongside fish, amphibian and mammal species of conservation concern. Our results highlight trade-offs between target-species sensitivity and the broader ecological information provided by each method, and support metabarcoding as an effective tool for a holistic conservation approach, with the additional community data outweighing the marginally increased sensitivity of qPCR.

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Vertical Variation of the Caterpillar Community in Oak (Quercus robur) Canopies

Morley, L. M.; Cole, E. F.; Crofts, S. J.; Sheldon, B. C.

2026-04-10 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.07.717053 medRxiv
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1) BackgroundUnderstanding how caterpillar communities vary within tree canopies is key to interpreting forest trophic dynamics and responses to environmental change, yet such variation remains poorly quantified due to the challenges of sampling in three dimensions. 2) AimsWe quantified within-canopy heterogeneity in caterpillar densities, diversity, and herbivory and explored relationships with host tree phenology and commonly used ground-based monitoring approaches. 3) MethodsUsing direct canopy access, we sampled branches from lower, middle, and upper canopy strata of 34 mature pedunculate oaks (Quercus robur) in Wytham Woods, UK, during the spring abundance peak over three consecutive years (2023-2025). We tested for vertical stratification in caterpillar community metrics, examined patterns in early instar distributions at emergence, assessed associations with host tree phenology across spatiotemporal scales, and evaluated how well ground-based methods (water and frass traps) reflect canopy communities. 4) ResultsVertical stratification was modest but varied among years: densities and species richness increased with canopy height in 2023, decreased in 2024, and were uniformly low across strata in 2025. Although within-crown budburst timing varied systematically, with upper branches bursting approximately two days earlier than lower branches, tree phenology did not explain within- or between-year variation in caterpillar communities. Frass trap data correlated moderately well with canopy caterpillar densities, whereas water traps showed weaker and less consistent relationships, reflecting behavioural and methodological biases. 5) ConclusionsCaterpillar communities showed no consistent patterns of vertical stratification across years, instead they are shaped more strongly by inter-annual and tree-level variation. Integrating targeted canopy sampling with scalable ground-based proxies could greatly improve monitoring of arboreal Lepidoptera and inform studies of trophic synchrony and wood-land resilience under environmental change.

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Twenty-five years of monitoring reveals that uninterrupted rodent control is the fundamental driver of breeding success in the Galapagos Petrel Pterodroma phaeopygia

Lopes, F.; Gibbs, J. P.; Carrion, J.

2026-03-30 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.29.715149 medRxiv
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The long-standing misconception that the Galapagos petrel (Pterodroma phaeopygia) and the Hawaiian petrel (Pterodroma sandwichensis) were conspecific masked the severe vulnerability of the Galapagos population. By the time its distinct status was recognized, the Galapagos petrel was already in marked decline, primarily due to invasive predators. Consequently, sustained rodent control programs have been implemented on Santa Cruz Island. An unintentional one-year failure in rodent control provided a rare quasi-experimental opportunity to quantify the demographic consequences of the invasive black rat predator. During this year, hatching success declined by [~]35% and breeding success by [~]40% relative to long-term means (66% and 62%, respectively), representing a substantial reproductive collapse. Fledging success exhibited a comparatively modest decline (from a long-term mean of 94% to 86% in 2017), suggesting stage-specific vulnerability. These results support the hypothesis that invasive black rats primarily affect early reproductive stages through egg predation and predation on small chicks, while older chicks surpass a critical size threshold that reduces susceptibility. Across the remaining managed years, reproductive metrics exhibited great stability, demonstrating the petrels resilience against other environmental or climatic stressors. Our findings provide robust empirical evidence that invasive rodent control is the dominant driver of reproductive success in this endangered seabird. The quasi-experimental failure underscored both the effectiveness and the necessity of continuous predator management, highlighting the severe and immediate consequences of even short-term lapses.

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Invasion pathway predicts the axis of ecological niche reorganisation in freshwater crayfish

Miok, K.; Petko, O. N.; Robnik-Sikonja, M.; Parvulescu, L.

2026-04-07 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.05.716527 medRxiv
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AimUnderstanding whether invasive species retain or shift their ecological niches has traditionally relied on scalar overlap metrics that quantify the magnitude of niche change, but not its structure. Here, we test whether biological invasions involve a reorganisation of the environmental axes along which native and invasive ranges are differentiated, and whether the dominant axes of this reorganisation are consistently associated with invasion pathway type (intercontinental vs. within-continent). LocationGlobal (North America, Europe, Africa, Asia, Australasia). Time periodContemporary (environmental variables representing long-term averages, 1980-2021). Major taxa studiedFreshwater crayfish (Decapoda: Astacidea): Procambarus clarkii, Faxonius limosus, Pacifastacus leniusculus, Faxonius virilis, Faxonius rusticus. MethodsWe analysed native and invasive occurrences for five globally important crayfish invaders using [~]400 hydrologically resolved environmental variables from the Global Crayfish Database of Geospatial Traits. Classification models were used to quantify environmental differentiation between native and invasive ranges, and feature contributions were aggregated by environmental domain (climate, topography, soil, land cover). Patterns were evaluated across intercontinental and within-continent invasion pathways and assessed for robustness using cross-validation, permutation tests, sample-size sensitivity, and comparisons with classical niche overlap metrics. ResultsNative and invasive occurrences were consistently distinguishable across all species (accuracy 96.5-99.9%). A pathway-dependent pattern emerged: intercontinental invaders were primarily differentiated along climatic dimensions (58-76% of model importance), whereas within-continent invaders showed a more balanced contribution of climatic and topographic variables ([~]42% each), including strong signals from river network position. This contrast was stable across cross-validation folds (SD < 1.6%), and supported by permutation tests (P = 0.001). Classical niche overlap metrics (Schoeners D = 0.30-0.62) did not capture this qualitative distinction. Main conclusionsBiological invasions involve not only changes in niche position but a reorganisation of the environmental axes that distinguish species distributions. Our results suggest that the dominant axes of this reorganisation differ systematically with invasion pathway, reflecting whether species encounter novel climatic regimes or primarily shift within existing climatic space along topographic and network-position gradients. By resolving which environmental dimensions underpin native-invasive differentiation, this approach provides a complementary perspective to scalar overlap metrics and a basis for more mechanistic interpretations of invasion processes.

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Robustness and management performance of MSY reference points derived from the hockey-stick stock-recruitment model under structural uncertainty

Ichinokawa, M.; Okamura, H.

2026-03-30 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.27.714336 medRxiv
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The hockey-stick (HS) stock recruitment relationship (SRR) has been widely used as an empirical alternative to conventional SRRs such as the Beverton-Holt (BH) and Ricker (RI) models. However, the management performance and risks associated with estimating maximum-sustainable-yield (MSY) reference points (RPs) based on HS remain insufficiently understood. This study first defines deterministic and stochastic MSY RPs under the HS model and provides an overview of their properties. We then conduct simulation experiments to investigate the bias and management consequences that arise when MSY RPs are estimated from the HS model (HS-derived MSY RPs) rather than from the true SRR (e.g., BH) across a range of biological and stochastic parameters, with particular focus on scenarios with insufficient data contrast. Our results show that HS-derived MSY RPs tend to exhibit higher bias but lower variance than MSY RPs derived from the true SRR. Management strategy evaluation simulations further reveal that management procedures combining HS-derived MSY RPs with adaptive model learning and some precautionary measures gradually reduce this bias and achieve average spawning biomass and yield that are comparable to those obtained under management based on the true BH SRR. We also show that the management effectiveness of the precautionary measures depends on life-history traits and recruitment variability. These findings indicate that although HS-derived MSY RPs may be biased and require cautious use, combining them with appropriate precautionary measures allows management to remain robust while limiting variability and yield losses. This broadens the range of management options that are available for supporting sustainable fisheries management.

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Quantifying catch inequality in recreational fisheries: a case study with California steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss)

Sanchez, S. R.; Schneider, C.; Fangue, N. A.; Lusardi, R. A.; Rypel, A. L.

2026-03-19 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.17.712454 medRxiv
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Catch inequality--the disproportionate distribution of catch across anglers-- is a fundamental but overlooked driver of recreational fisheries dynamics. Here, we use 11 years (2012-2022) of compulsory angler report cards to characterize long-term catch dynamics in the specialized recreational steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) fishery in California, U.S.A. Spatialized catch data reveal the fishery is principally supported by wild fish, despite evidence of widespread hatchery straying. California steelhead appear to represent the most catch-unequal recreational fishery studied yet, exhibiting a statewide Gini coefficient of 0.81. Across basins, inequality varies substantially but remains relatively stable over time and flow conditions; high inequality is primarily driven by significant proportions of zero-catch anglers. We find the relationship between sample size and inequality measures is especially influential in fisheries data. Hence, we develop a three-prong approach for identifying minimal sample sizes required for robust Gini estimation. Across basins and years, an average minimum of 77 report cards were required for the present fishery. Collectively, these findings demonstrate the necessity of considering catch inequality in fisheries management, particularly when utilizing angler data. Graphical AbstractN.a.

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Grazing and mowing enhance aquatic macroinvertebrate diversity of small artificial ponds in eutrophic landscape

Petruzelova, J.; Petruzela, J.; Cerna, A.; Kotasova Adamkova, M.

2026-03-26 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.24.713891 medRxiv
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Artificial pond construction is widely used in wetland restoration, yet biodiversity outcomes depend strongly on design and subsequent management. We tested how different regimes (grazing, mowing, and no management) influence habitat structure, water conditions, and aquatic macroinvertebrate diversity in newly excavated experimental ponds within an eutrophic wetland in South Moravia (Czechia). Across four focal groups (Mollusca, Odonata, Coleoptera, Heteroptera), we observed rapid colonisation of the newly built ponds. Species richness and densities rose during early development, dropped after drying events, and then partially recovered, indicating repeated "resetting" of communities under fluctuating hydrology. Periodic drying also prevented fish stock establishment. Management significantly affected species composition and both grazed and mowed ponds displayed higher densities (abundances) than controls, but differed only slightly in terms of species richness. The grazed ponds were characterised by high sunlight exposure, reduced reed dominance, and trampling-generated high littoral heterogeneity. These ponds showed highest numbers of taxa adapted to shallow and warm waterbodies, muddy substrate, semiaquatic microhabitats, or newly emerged and disturbed habitats. The mowed ponds promoted dense submergent vegetation, supporting Odonata representation and other taxa requiring aquatic vegetation. The control ponds remained highly shaded by high-grown reed, organic-matter rich, hosting a set of taxa tolerant of low-light, low-oxygen conditions. At the wetland scale, multiple small ponds increased overall diversity through high between-pond heterogeneity. Our results highlight that pond construction alone is insufficient for wetland restoration: follow-up long-term management regimes, especially extensive grazing, can rapidly generate structural heterogeneity and sustain diverse aquatic invertebrate assemblages in eutrophic wetlands.

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Population and community responses to the fast, slow, and seasonal components of environmental variation

Hernandez-Carrasco, D.; Koerich, G.; Gillis, A. J.; Harris, H. A. L.; Heller, N. R.; McCabe, C.; Lennox, R. S.; Shabanov, I.; Wang, L.; Lai, H. R.; Tonkin, J. D.

2026-03-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.18.712754 medRxiv
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Theory suggests that different components of environmental fluctuations, from daily and seasonal cycles to multidecadal trends, can have distinct and even opposing effects on species abundances and community dynamics, depending on their specific adaptations. But empirical research that deconstructs the influence of these different cycles on communities is lacking. Here, we used long-term biological monitoring data together with flow records of rivers across New Zealand to (i) investigate the role of fast, slow, and seasonal river-flow fluctuations in structuring macroinvertebrate communities; and (ii) to assess whether life-history and mobility traits mediate the response. Using joint species distribution models, we found striking differences in taxon and community responses to the different components of river flow variation. Responses to slow fluctuations were generally stronger and better predicted by traits, while responses to seasonal fluctuations were highly heterogeneous. Fast increases in flow, typical of flooding events, had pervasive negative effects on species abundances, but the severity of impact partly depended on mobility traits. Our results suggest that different ecological mechanisms underpin the response to distinct environmental fluctuations, highlighting the value of jointly considering multiple temporal scales of variation and species functional traits to understand and predict how communities reorganise under fluctuating environmental regimes.

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Shifting Resilience: Trends and Predictors of Mesic Resource Productivity in Western U.S. Rangelands

Mueller, K. R.; Morford, S. L.; Kimball, J. S.; Smith, J. T.; Donnelly, P. J.; Naugle, D. E.

2026-03-30 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.27.714799 medRxiv
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Mesic resources, the late-season herbaceous vegetation found in riparian areas and wet meadows, provide disproportionately important forage and habitat across western U.S. rangelands, yet their response to climatic variability and anthropogenic influences remains poorly understood. Using a 40-year Landsat time series (1984-2024), we quantified trends in late-season productivity (NDVI) across 4.5 million hectares of the sagebrush biome and applied random forest models to distinguish between temporal and spatial predictors of mesic resource productivity. We identified a fundamental shift in how mesic resources respond to drought: from 1984 to 2004, mesic productivity was strongly correlated with drought severity (Palmer Drought Severity Index, R{superscript 2} = 0.92), but this relationship weakened substantially in the next two decades (2005-2024; R{superscript 2} = 0.28), during which time productivity increased despite persistent aridity. Temporal modeling identified rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations as the strongest predictor of this shift, consistent with enhanced plant water-use efficiency under CO2 fertilization. Spatially, large agricultural valley floodplains act as anthropogenic refugia, sustaining productive mesic resources through flood irrigation and subsequent groundwater recharge into late summer. These findings suggest that human water management and physiological shifts in vegetation are currently buffering mesic systems against meteorological drought throughout U.S. rangelands. However, this apparent buffering is spatially heterogeneous and may mask vulnerability to groundwater depletion, shifts in precipitation regimes, and woody encroachment. Sustaining these vital ecosystems will require conservation approaches that go beyond climate monitoring to include balanced management considering both agricultural and ecological water needs and constraints.

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Exposure of non-target white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus) to Second-generation Anticoagulant Rodenticides in an urban context

Richardson, L. F.; Schulte-Hostedde, A.

2026-04-09 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.06.715702 medRxiv
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The pathways of non-target exposure to anticoagulant rodenticides (ARs) are poorly understood, and have yet to be examined in Ontario, Canada. The spillover of ARs into non-target rodents and high-risk landscapes has been investigated numerous times, but usually in agricultural regions as opposed to urban ones. We used snap traps to capture white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus) in urban wildland areas of Toronto and Vaughan, Ontario near ongoing rodenticide baiting programs. Our goal was to determine if second-generation anticoagulant (SGAR) baiting practices used by pest management professionals targeting commensal rodents may be causing rodenticide spillover into non-target rodents in urban wildland areas, which could act as a vector of ARs to predators. Only 11 out of 111 mature white-footed mice trapped near ongoing urban rodenticide operations tested positive for an anticoagulant, at five out of seven study sites. Concentrations were between 0.008-0.03 ppm, which may be sublethal for raptors. We did not detect brodifacoum, despite its detection in a recent study on Ontario raptors. Exposed individuals were caught at 0m, 5m, 20m, 40m, 70m and 100m from active rodenticide stations. They did not differ from unexposed individuals in terms of sex, age, body condition, distance to the AR source, capture date or capture site. This indicates that the pest management industrys use of rodenticides in urban and suburban settings is causing some degree of non-target spillover in Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area, and that SGAR usage should be avoided near naturalized landscapes.

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PEATREST: A lifecycle assessment (LCA) model of carbon fluxes for restored afforested peatlands

O'Sullivan, J.; Whittaker, C.; Xenakis, G.; Robson, T.; Perks, M.

2026-04-01 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.30.715261 medRxiv
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Peatlands are an important terrestrial carbon sink which, when drained, can produce substantial CO2 efflux. Low productivity forestry planted on drained peatlands can become a net carbon source if losses from drained soils exceed sequestration by the trees. Decision support tools which assist resource allocation and intervention planning in forest-to-bog restoration are needed to mediate this substantial environmental harm. Predicting carbon mitigation benefits associated with forest-to-bog restoration is a major challenge, however, due to the lack of long-term monitoring programs and the fact that mitigation times depend on processes distant from the intervention. Here we introduce the PEATREST life cycle assessment (LCA) which predicts carbon fluxes associated with forest-to-bog restoration, including due to processes far from restored sites. The LCA estimates mitigation timescales defined as the time following intervention at which the restored peatland is predicted to sequester or store more carbon than the forestry would have if retained. HighlightsO_LIHere we develop a novel forest-to-bog Life cycle assessment (LCA) tool C_LIO_LIThe LCA predicts carbon mitigation times following peatland restoration C_LIO_LIThe model combines a variety of process-based and empirical sub-models C_LIO_LIExample implementations for two different restoration scenarios are explored C_LIO_LISensitivity analysis highlights the model inputs that most impact outcomes C_LI Graphical abstract(A single, concise figure that serves as a visual summary of the main research findings described in your manuscript.) O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=80 SRC="FIGDIR/small/715261v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (18K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@f243f5org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@14bc4c7org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@164261borg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1db3b_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG The PEATREST Life cycle assessment (LCA) generates compound time series of carbon sequestration and carbon storage for two scenarios: the forest-to-bog peatland restoration (PR) and a counterfactual (CF) of forestry retention. By comparing the two scenarios, the LCA predicts the carbon mitigation timescales (vertical dashed lines). These are defined as the time following harvesting at which the peatland is predicted to sequester more (emit less), or to have stored more (lost less) carbon, than the forestry would have if retained. C_FIG

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High-intensity sheep grazing impoverishes soil seed banks in sand grasslands

Kovacsics-Vari, G.; Sonkoly, J.; Szel-Toth, K.; McIntosh-Buday, A.; Guallichico Suntaxi, L. R.; Madar, S.; Diaz Cando, P. E.; Törö-Szijgyarto, V.; Tothmeresz, B.; Török, P.

2026-03-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.18.712656 medRxiv
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The effects of the selection of livestock type (e.g., sheep or cattle) and grazing intensity on the soil seed bank of sand grasslands of conservation interest were studied. 25 grazed grassland sites classified into four grazing intensity categories were studied. The soil seed bank was analysed by seedling emergence; germinated seedlings were classified into morpho-functional, social behaviour type (SBT) and CSR strategy groups. The following hypotheses were tested: i) Diversity and density of soil seed banks are lower in sheep-grazed sites than in cattle-grazed ones. ii) The species composition, diversity, and density of the soil seed banks are more strongly affected by grazing intensity than by the livestock type. iii) Leaf traits, SBT and CSR strategy composition are highly affected both by livestock type and grazing intensity. The main effect of livestock type only affected seed bank density, while that of grazing intensity had a significant effect on most of the variables. Most of the studied variables were affected by the interaction of grazing intensity and livestock type. Total seed bank density was lower at all grazing intensity levels in sheep-grazed sites than in cattle-grazed ones, especially close to frequently visited places. We found that sheep grazing sustained a much lower total seed bank density and lower density of species of natural and semi-natural habitats regardless to the grazing intensity. Thus, livestock type must be carefully selected and high-intensity sheep grazing should be avoided in the long-run when managing sand grasslands. HighlightsO_LIThe soil seed banks of sheep and cattle grazed sand grassland were studied C_LIO_LIEffect of grazing intensity found the most important driver of seed bank diversity and density C_LIO_LIThe total soil seed bank density was higher in cattle than sheep grazed sites C_LIO_LIBoth intensity and livestock type must be considered in the grassland management planning C_LIO_LIHigh intensity sheep grazing should be avoided in sand grassland management C_LI

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Integrating conventional tagging and acoustic telemetry improves estimates of post-release survival in a highly targeted reef fish

Hyman, A. C.; Collins, A.; Ramsay, C.; Allen, M. S.; Wilms, S.; Barbieri, L.; Frazer, T. K.

2026-03-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.16.711647 medRxiv
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Accurate estimation of post-release survival is fundamental to fisheries stock assessment and effective management. Conventional tag-return studies and acoustic telemetry are commonly used to estimate this probability, yet each approach has limitations when applied independently. Using gag (Mycteroperca microlepis) as a case study, we integrated data from a large-scale conventional tagging program and an acoustic telemetry experiment within a discrete-time statistical modeling framework that links relative recapture risk with telemetry-derived fate. This approach enabled estimation of post-release survival across a broad gradient of capture depths representative of recreational fishing conditions. Estimated survival was high in shallow waters ({approx}97%) but declined with increasing capture depth, consistent with depth-related barotrauma. Applying model predictions to depth distributions from the recreational fishery yielded annual and monthly post-release survival probabilities. Annual estimates were consistent with values assumed in recent stock assessments, while monthly values highlighted seasonal patterns potentially relevant for management. This integrated framework advances post-release survival estimation by combining the extensive sample sizes and environmental coverage characteristic of conventional tagging data with the direct fate observations provided by acoustic telemetry, and offers a transferable approach for other highly targeted fisheries.