Ecosphere

O_LIAgricultural intensification can support the expansion of introduced species which are highly adapted to human-modified landscapes, but the mechanisms by which this occurs are often unclear. C_LIO_LIHere we investigate the spatial ecology of a rapidly expanding introduced bumble bee (Bombus impatiens) and a native congener (B. mixtus) in agricultural landscapes of southwestern British Columbia, Canada. We used microsatellite genotyping and spatially explicit capture-recapture models to compare the foraging distance of the two species, and fitted hierarchical models to compare their abundance, behaviour (nest searching vs foraging), and lineage survival as a function of landscape composition and configuration. C_LIO_LIWe found that B. impatiens had a broader foraging range than B. mixtus, and that its colony/worker abundance were positively associated with the surrounding area of residential gardens, but decreased relative to B. mixtus abundance in response to increasing seminatural area. In contrast, B. mixtus colony abundance decreased in landscapes with a greater area of intensively managed berry crops. C_LIO_LIWe observed fewer B. impatiens queens per survey in landscapes with more low-disturbance landcover, and hypothesize space use of this species could be shaped by concentration on potential nesting habitat. Consistent with this observation, nest searching behaviour was more common for B. impatiens queens, while B. mixtus queens were primarily observed foraging, suggesting these two species derive different value from agricultural landscapes during colony establishment. C_LIO_LIFinally, we found that the rate of lineage re-capture between 2022 colonies and 2023 spring queens was nearly 10-fold higher for B. impatiens than for B. mixtus, indicating a greater capacity of the introduced species to complete its life cycle in agro-natural landscape mosaics. C_LIO_LIOur results suggest that differences in spatial ecology may contribute to the differential success of these two species in human-modified landscapes, and provide insight into the mechanisms by which land-use change shapes community composition. C_LI O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=184 HEIGHT=200 SRC="FIGDIR/small/723627v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (62K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1e72eacorg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@a958a0org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1f970b6org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@156f522_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG Graphical abstract. Coloured diagrams of B. mixtus and B. impatiens are credited to Elaine Evans and the Xerces Society, with permission.

O_LICalluna vulgaris is often managed in the UK by rotational burning, but this practice has recently been banned on peat with depth greater than 30-40 cm. It is unclear how then to manage the large areas of Calluna on blanket bogs used for sport shooting because without managed burning, fuel loads and wildfire risk will increase as the Calluna ages within the artificially narrow age distributions created by burn management. C_LIO_LIWe developed a model of Calluna mortality and management to understand duration and persistence of post-management effects. This allows us to assess how long it will take to reach a more natural age structure which would allow increased diversity if management ceases. C_LIO_LIOur results show that management effects persist for around 50 years depending on site-specific mortality rates. Active management may therefore be needed either to mitigate the elevated risk of severe wildfire or to speed up this transition. C_LIO_LISome studies have employed, as unmanaged analogues, Calluna stands that were last managed <50 years ago, but such studies may have unintentionally biased their results by observing Calluna still in post-management recovery leading to an over-estimation of wildfire risk associated with more natural blanket bogs. C_LIO_LISynthesis and applications: with the banning of burning as a management tool for Calluna on deep peat, alternative management is now likely needed as our model shows it could take around 50 years for the Calluna to reach a more natural age distribution. Mowing can replicate some of the effects of managed burning but requires repeated intervention and may compress the peat surface from repeated machine tracking. Rewetting and Sphagnum reintroduction may offer a more sustainable management approach to lowering Calluna fuel loads and reducing severe wildfire risk by creating wetter sub-optimal conditions for Calluna growth and thereby altering the competitive balance between Sphagnum and Calluna. Further work is needed to assess the efficacy of rewetting in controlling fuel loads and how this varies with climate and local pressures. More broadly, this work highlights the need to quantify the persistence of past management regimes to understand ecological trajectories. C_LI

QuestionsEcological monitoring, repeated collection of ecological data, is essential to document how ecosystems respond to change. In grasslands, different vegetation monitoring protocols are used across disciplines, making it difficult to address multiple management objectives or research questions. We asked four questions about how three common vegetation monitoring protocols compare. (1) How do the protocols differ in how they collect data? (2) How do the protocols differ in their utility? (3) In what ways do vegetation measurements quantitatively differ across protocols? (4) What are each protocols strengths? LocationThis study was conducted on working ranches in the Southern Great Plains with vegetation consisting mainly of native forbs and grasses. MethodsWe implemented three protocols at each site: (1) the Rangeland Analysis Platform (RAP), (2) the Grassland Effectiveness Monitoring (GEM) protocol, and (3) a typical pollinator ecology survey protocol. We qualitatively compared each protocols utility and quantitatively compared cover measurements that each produced. ResultsAll three protocols displayed positive associations within cover categories, but differed in actual cover measurements. The RAP protocol, which uses remote sensing, measured the highest total vegetation cover. The GEM protocol, a line-point intercept method, had more capability to capture fine-scale cover patterns. The GEM protocol measured the most bare ground while the Pollinator protocol measured more forb coverage. ConclusionFine-scale methods like the GEM protocol are most appropriate to address objectives that require capturing small patterns that would otherwise be overlooked with methods like quadrats or remote sensing. Remote sensing is advantageous when monitoring large areas or inaccessible land, but may over-estimate cover. The Pollinator protocol is best equipped to address questions regarding flower abundance and richness. Similarities among protocols can facilitate synergy across disciplines for more effective monitoring. We emphasize the importance of denoting a clear scale and scope of monitoring objectives before selecting methods.

Urban pollinator gardens can provide refugia and support diverse populations of native bees amid threats from habitat destruction, pesticides, and potential ecological pressures from the introduced honey bee (Apis mellifera (Linnaeus, 1748)). The University of California, Berkeley, maintained a native bee garden at the Oxford Tract research facility to study the biodiversity, phenology, and foraging habits of urban bees from 2003 to 2009. That garden was decommissioned, and a new garden was re-established in 2019. Using diversity observations from the early 2000s garden and non-lethal sampling techniques, we characterized plant-pollinator interactions between flowers and urban bees in the newer bee garden with a bipartite interaction network. Across 12 flower species, we observed two non-native pollinators, the honey bee (A. mellifera) and the alfalfa leafcutter (Megachile rotundata (Fabricius, 1793)), along with at least ten native bee species across three families (Apidae, Halictidae, Megachilidae). We found that, despite the garden being created for native bees, honey bees accounted for 84% of all pollination interactions. The most abundant native bees were sweat bees (Family: Halictidae). Generalist interactions dominated the network, as both honey and sweat bees foraged on most available flowers. Honey bees showed a significant positive correlation with floral abundance, visiting flowers with the highest number of inflorescences, whereas native bees did not show this preference. These results indicate that native bee garden stewardship could benefit from greater floral diversity, while avoiding the dominance of any single species with high floral abundance, thereby reducing the likelihood of direct competition with honey bees.

There is an urgent need to gather data on harvest rates of waterbirds in Europe to assess the sustainability of hunting. Estimates of total waterbird harvest in the United Kingdom (UK) and the relative harvest of different huntable species come from two separate surveys, the Value of Shooting (PACEC 2014) and National Gamebag Census (NGC, Aebischer 2019), and these have been recently used to explore the likelihood of unsustainable harvests of wild waterbirds by UK hunters (Ellis and Cameron 2022; Madden et al., 2025). The reliability of these sustainability estimates depends on how representative the original surveys are of hunter behaviour and success. There are also 1-3 million released game-farm mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) that takes up considerable and unquantified proportions of the UK waterbird harvest. Here we explore uncertainties in the UK winter harvest of wild waterfowl by comparing estimates from the NGC dataset with those from the Crown Estate coastal hunting clubs, and a novel approach using analysis of social-media images (2019/20 to 2023/24). We explore the difference in species-specific harvest with and without the uncertainties in the number of released mallard and the total number of duck harvested in the UK. Waterbird harvest estimates differ markedly depending on the input dataset and whether released mallard are included in the analysis. Confidence intervals of each estimate are inflated by uncertainties in the number of released game-farm mallard contributing to, and the size of that national bag. Estimates extrapolated from social media suggest the national harvest of several species may be considerably larger than the corresponding NGC estimates (e.g. Teal *2.07 and gadwall *11.2), while mallard harvests away from formal shoots represented by NGC are significantly lower (*0.71). Excluding released mallard reduces the statistical estimate of total wild duck harvest by 56-63%, which would have biologically significant effects if realised.

Guinea worm disease eradication efforts may benefit from environmental surveillance methods capable of detecting infected copepod intermediate hosts in aquatic habitats. We developed a three-dimensional, spatially explicit agent-based model to examine how ecological processes influence detection probability for a hypothetical water sampling method. The results show that surveillance sensitivity is shaped by the combined effects of larval diffusion, copepod density, and pond size, with interactions among these factors producing nonlinear relationships. Detection, in our model, was concentrated within a relatively restricted period after larvae matured to the infective stage and before dispersal and mortality reduced presence, indicating a limited spatiotemporal window for effective sampling. Surveillance performance peaked under intermediate dispersal regimes that generated sufficient spatial overlap between larvae and intermediate hosts, while both limited dispersal and excessive diffusion reduced detection by constraining encounters or diluting larval concentrations. Increasing habitat size reduced detection by diluting larval concentrations, but the magnitude of this effect depended on copepod density and dispersal dynamics, producing nonlinear and threshold responses rather than simple scaling with pond volume. Spatial and temporal patterns of detection shifted as larvae dispersed, with the most favorable detection periods occurring when both larval abundance and intermediate host encounters were elevated. These findings indicate that surveillance can be guided by local ecological conditions. When the timing of larval introduction is uncertain, effective surveillance requires repeated sampling over time to capture transient windows of detectability and the sampling will be less effective in very stagnant and highly mixed waterbodies. Overall, this study demonstrates how mechanistic modeling can support the design and interpretation of environmental surveillance strategies for Guinea worm eradication programs. Author summaryGuinea worm disease is close to eradication but confirming that transmission has fully stopped remains difficult because detecting infectious larvae in water is challenging. Transmission depends on freshwater copepods that become infected after ingesting Guinea worm larvae. These copepods are short-lived and unevenly distributed within ponds, and infected individuals may die before larvae reach the infective stage. As a result, environmental detection is inherently uncertain. We developed a three-dimensional agent-based model to simulate larval dispersal, copepod infection, and water sampling in a pond environment. The model shows that detection is constrained to a brief period when mature larvae and copepods overlap in space and time, and that this window depends strongly on local ecological conditions such as larval dispersal, copepod density, and pond size. Because infected copepods can be present outside these narrow detection windows, negative water samples do not necessarily indicate absence of transmission, highlighting the need for repeated, spatially targeted surveillance during the final stages of eradication.

Ectomycorrhizal (EcM) fungi are well-recognized symbionts impacting tree health and ecosystem functioning globally, yet understanding of their timing of proliferation in soils across seasons and years remains limited. We analyzed monthly patterns of EcM fungal abundance and community structure over two years in five temperate monodominant forest plots via quantitative PCR and Illumina sequencing. We found that the phenological dynamics of EcM fungi differed significantly by host tree leaf habit, fungal exploration type, fungal genus, and soil moisture. Overall, total EcM fungal abundances based on qPCR consistently peaked in autumn, and were more dynamic in evergreen than deciduous plots, supporting ideas of surplus carbon and asymmetric above-belowground dynamics. Longer-distance exploration types peaked earlier and were more stable than shorter-distance types, suggesting an independent and supportive role in releasing spring nutrients. About half of 20 focal taxa consistently peaked in either autumn, summer, or spring, while others were either host- and/or year-dependent. Our findings highlight that phenology is a key EcM fungal trait best explained by both host and fungal contributions, and future studies across biomes should consider seasonal shifts and sampling to elucidate phenological traits. Summary- The timing of belowground production and seasonal community dynamics remain poorly understood for ectomycorrhizal (EcM) fungi. - We collected soils monthly for two years from five temperate monodominant forest plots. - Fungal production peaked in autumn, shorter-distance and evergreen-associated spanned wider ranges, and half of focal fungal genera showed seasonal preference, emphasizing autumn surplus carbon and spring nutrients from long-distance types. - Future studies should consider seasonal shifts when sampling EcM fungal communities, and forest carbon models should include asymmetric above-belowground phenology. Translated Summary (Spanish)- La fenologia de la produccion y composicion de comunidades de hongos ectomicorrizicos (EcM) es poco estudiada. - Recolectamos suelos mensualmente por dos anos de cinco parcelas mono-dominantes templados. - Produccion maxima de hongos ocurrio en otono, hongos asociados con arboles siempreverdes y de exploracion de corta-distancia observaron rangos mas amplios, y la mitad de generos de hongos focales observaron preferencia estacional, enfatizando extra carbono en otono y nutrientes en primavera de tipos larga-distancia. - Estudios deben considerar cambios estacionales para el muestreo de hongos EcM, y modelos de carbono deben incluir fenologia asimetrica entre hojas y hongos. Plain language summaryEctomycorrhizal fungi are critical for the global carbon cycle, but their seasonal and inter-annual growth patterns remain unclear. We sample soil DNA monthly over two years across five different monodominant temperate forest stands. We find an overall belowground peak in autumn, with significantly later growth under wetter conditions, more dynamism with evergreen trees, and distinct spring growth by longer-distance fungi.

BackgroundWintering migratory birds must balance energetic requirements, resource availability, and disturbance in increasingly human-modified landscapes. However, individual-level variability in daily movement and winter space use remains poorly understood in South Asian populations of the common crane. We investigated how seasonal dynamics, landscape composition, and individual differences structure winter movement ecology in a semi-arid agro-wetland system in western India. MethodsWe analysed high-resolution GPS telemetry data from multiple tagged cranes tracked across three consecutive winters. Daily movement distances were modelled using mixed-effects approaches to partition variance within and among individuals and among winters. Daily movement trajectories were evaluated using non-linear temporal terms. Landscape predictors, including cropland proportion, built-up area, and habitat heterogeneity, were incorporated to assess environmental drivers. Winter range distributions were estimated using autocorrelation-informed kernel density estimation within a continuous-time movement modelling framework. ResultsMost variation in daily movement occurred within individuals rather than among them, indicating strong behavioural flexibility. Interannual differences explained substantial variance, suggesting sensitivity to changing environmental conditions. Daily movement distance followed a non-linear seasonal pattern consistent with shifts in the profitability of agricultural resources over winter. Cropland proportion and landscape evenness were negatively associated with movement distance, whereas a high proportion of built-up areas increased daily movement distance, reflecting a trade-off between resource concentration and anthropogenic disturbance. Winter range distribution size varied markedly both within individuals across years and among individuals within seasons. ConclusionWinter movement and space use in common cranes are predominantly context-dependent and environmentally driven. Seasonal dynamics, agricultural landscapes, and human disturbance jointly structure movement patterns, with limited but consistent individual differences. Multi-year, individual-based telemetry provides a comprehensive understanding of winter spatial strategies in dynamic semi-arid agro-wetland systems.

Giraffes, unlike other large mammals, typically pose minimal risk to humans, their animals, and crops, so they are traditionally not involved in human-wildlife conflict. Tree crops, however, are expanding across Africa, resulting in crop raiding by giraffes and retaliatory snaring, poaching, and killing of giraffes in response. The dynamics of giraffe crop raiding, however, are poorly understood, making effective interventions difficult to implement. To better understand key factors for humans and giraffes that mediate crop raiding, we used a multi-method approach to estimate giraffe abundance and activity, understand farmers perceptions and decisions, and test countermeasures around Garissa Giraffe Sanctuary in eastern Kenya. We hypothesized that 1) giraffe farm invasion would occur in dry seasons, 2) farms growing mangoes would be more likely to be invaded, 3) reducing invasion with only physical barriers would be less effective than adding behavior-based countermeasures, 4) perceptions would match giraffe activity and 5) countermeasure adoption would be driven by cost. We found that invasion and crop raiding primarily occur during the dry season and are associated with mangoes. Farmers are using many countermeasures. Effective countermeasures target giraffe behavior combined with physical barriers. Countermeasures are most effective when negative associations with humans are reinforced. Floodlights and speakers that play predator calls both reduce invasion, but only if used consistently. Overall, farmers perceptions matched giraffe dynamics. Availability was the most important factor in farmers willingness to try a countermeasure. Our results suggest that conflict can be reduced and there is interest from farmers in doing so, but use of countermeasures should be consistently applied and supported by making necessary equipment and instructions available.

Wildlife vaccination could become a powerful strategy to mitigate disease-induced biodiversity losses, yet many vaccines for wildlife diseases provide only limited protection. Notably, tools to control the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) are urgently needed for amphibian conservation. Laboratory experiments have demonstrated that prophylactic exposure to Bd metabolites increases host resistance, significantly reducing infection intensity in amphibians subsequently challenged with live Bd. Because Bd metabolites are non-infectious and applied topically, this treatment has potential to be administered to waterbodies to vaccinate and protect amphibians. We developed an agent-based model that indicated imperfect vaccination could reduce or amplify Bd infections at the population level, depending on degree of enhanced resistance or tolerance. Utilizing a Before-After-Control-Impact design with ten years of data, we conducted an ecosystem-level trial where we applied low levels of Bd metabolites or a sham control treatment to ponds in California and subsequently quantified Bd prevalence and infection intensity in metamorphosing Pacific chorus frogs (Pseudacris regilla). Unexpectedly, infection intensity was significantly greater in treated ponds relative to control ponds following metabolite addition. Additional model simulations indicated that this could occur via two mechanisms: (1) if treatment greatly increased tolerance alone or in combination with smaller increases in resistance, or (2) if a deleterious environmental interaction caused the treatment to increase susceptibility, rather than promote resistance. Future research is needed to determine whether tolerance or environmental factors drove heightened Bd infection intensities in this field trial to identify contexts in which this treatment can be used as a conservation tool. Significance statementAlthough wildlife vaccination is increasingly explored as a strategy to mitigate disease-induced population declines, many available vaccines provide limited protection, requiring careful consideration to design successful conservation campaigns. Here, we use both an eco-epidemiological model and field manipulation experiment to assess the effectiveness of an imperfect prophylactic treatment (akin to a prototype vaccine) for chytridiomycosis, a disease implicated in the massive decline of amphibian biodiversity worldwide. We unexpectedly found that prophylaxis-treated ponds had higher pathogen loads relative to control populations and models suggest this could result from enhanced tolerance or an adverse environmental interaction.

The release of tens of millions of common pheasants (Phasianus colchicus) across the UK for shooting may pose an ecological risk to native species and sensitive habitats, particularly if the birds move into protected areas (PAs) such as Special Areas of Conservation (SAC), Special Protection Areas (SPA), and Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI). The extent of this ecological risk depends on the abundance of pheasants in these sensitive sites, especially if they are attracted there after the shooting season when game management efforts to retain the birds cease. We used relative pheasant abundance measures derived from British Trust for Ornithology bird atlas data from 3793 2km tetrads across four English counties (Berkshire, Cornwall, Devon, and Hertfordshire) to determine if pheasants preferentially disperse into or reside in areas with greater PA coverage. We analysed relative abundance in both the winter shooting season and the breeding season using a Bayesian occupancy-abundance model, controlling for habitat type and diversity. Our results showed a strong influence of habitat on pheasant abundance, consistent with known habitat preferences. However, we found no evidence of a relationship between relative pheasant abundance and the proportion of ecologically relevant PA coverage in a tetrad. This lack of a relationship was consistent across all four counties and across both the winter and breeding seasons. Our finding suggests that common pheasants do not preferentially disperse into or reside in protected areas compared to surrounding, unprotected land, suggesting that the ecological impacts caused by released pheasants are no more likely to occur in protected areas than in non-protected areas.

ContextAnimals balance resource acquisition with risk mitigation. These trade-offs are rarely uniform, being mediated by spatial scale, demographic traits, and environmental constraints. Understanding these divergent spatial behaviors is critical for management across human-dominated landscapes. ObjectivesWe investigated how sexual dimorphism and ontogeny interact with landscape structure to influence scale-dependent resource selection. Specifically, we sought to determine how these demographic factors mediate spatial trade-offs between optimal foraging habitats, top-down intraguild predation risk, and bottom-up severe winter weather. MethodsWe examined the spatial ecology of a solitary carnivore, the bobcat (Lynx rufus), across a heterogeneous, human-modified landscape in northern Minnesota, USA. Using spatial data derived from harvested adult and juvenile individuals, we evaluated multi-scale selection relative to land cover, structural ecotones, intraguild predator activity, and winter severity. ResultsHabitat selection was scale-dependent and partitioned demographically. Whereas bobcats universally selected for ecotones and avoided homogeneous open habitats at fine scales, responses to other features diverged by sex and age. Females actively avoided areas with high coyote activity and freezing temperatures; males exhibited high risk tolerance, apparently indifferent to coyote activity and tolerant of freezing temperatures. We identified a distinct ontogenetic spatial shift among females. Subordinate juveniles were competitively excluded from optimal natural ecotones, forcing them into riskier, anthropogenic agricultural edges. In contrast, adult females optimized foraging opportunities by selecting productive ecotones at the intersection of woody vegetation and semi-natural grasslands. ConclusionsOur findings demonstrate that habitat selection is not a static species-level trait, but instead a dynamic process resulting from the interaction between ontogeny, sex, and landscape heterogeneity. The reliance of vulnerable demographic groups on marginal or anthropogenic habitats highlights how human land-use changes can inadvertently produce ecological winners and losers within the same species. Consequently, landscape management and conservation planning for solitary carnivores must shift from broad, population-wide habitat prescriptions to strategies that explicitly accommodate the divergent spatial requirements of specific demographic cohorts.

The release and management of pheasants (Phasianus colchicus) in the UK for recreational shooting exerts a range of effects on the ecosystem into which they are released. We studied possible effect of nutrient deposition on epiphytic tree flora at 20 pheasant release sites distributed through England (18) and Wales (2) during winter and spring 2023/24. Sites were all Ancient Semi-natural Woodlands (ASNWs) and had substantial (600-8000 pheasants) in a single release pen. We measured N-sensitive and N-tolerant indicator bryophyte and lichen species on tree trunks near to the pen and then in plots along a transect 100m, 250m, 500m and 1km+ away from the pen. To achieve a gradient of pheasant use, the transects were located in the opposite direction to the game managed / shooting area. We recorded 1.9 times more coverage of N-tolerant lichens and bryophytes combined on selected tree species at the pen-edge compared to the control plots. The relationship showed a decline from the pen edge to 250m away but then stabilised. We also detected higher levels of coverage of N-sensitive tree flora at 100m and 250 m compared to the penedge plot. These measures were also higher at these mid distances compared to the 500m and 1000m plots. We suggest far plots were nearer wood edges and were affected by ambient inputs of aerial N from farmland and other external sources. The overall interpretation is that concentrations of pheasants in and around release pens for several months from late summer until early winter in ASNWs does affect the balance of N-sensitive and tolerant tree flora up to potentially 250m and this is a consideration when locating release pens in and near to sensitive woods.

Large-scale annual releases of pheasants Phasianus colchicus and their subsequent management for recreational shooting create various ecological impacts in the UK. While effects at release sites are fairly well understood, dispersing birds may influence areas farther away. If they enter ecologically important but sensitive protected areas (PAs), any negative impacts could be especially harmful. Using tracking data, from 766 birds across 10 sites, we estimated survival and dispersal of released pheasants and applied these patterns to gamebird release records near English PAs to gauge intrusion risk. Of 2,885 registered release sites, just over half lay within 2 km of a PA. A large number of shoots release relatively few birds while a small number release many birds. Thus, numbers expected to enter a particular PA likely depend both on the size of releases and proximity to the PA. We estimate that, at a national level, a maximum of between 525,000 and 784,000 pheasants might be found within PAs very soon after release, representing around 1.7% of all the pheasants released annually. This number declines over the months after release until in February, we estimate that there are between 131,000 and 196,000 pheasants (0.4% of the total release) might be found within PAs. The critical metric by which ecological damage might occur is their density within PAs. Mean densities soon after release averaged 12.0 birds/ha in PAs within 250 m of release sites. This density declined markedly both in time (as birds died) and space (as they moved further from the pen as potential areas increased). By November, densities in PAs 500-1000m from release sites peaked at 0.5 birds/ha, falling to 0.16 birds/ha in February. These estimated densities are around two orders of magnitude lower than those known to cause strong, lasting impacts within release pens. The results are subject to assumptions about movement behaviour, game management and bias in registration. Despite these constraints, considerable local variation exists, with a minority of high-volume release sites very near PAs posing the greatest potential ecological risk.

Elucidating how habitat degradation facilitates extinction is critical for effective conservation efforts. Here, we propose integrating physiologically-structured population models into stochastic population viability analyses to assess how differing consequences of habitat degradation interact to drive extinction dynamics in a focal population. Using the isolated spectacled caiman Caiman crocodilus population/ecomorph from the Apaporis River as a case study, we find that threatening the resource base, which individuals increasingly rely upon, to outgrow vulnerable size ranges and mature accelerates extinction. We also found that when habitat degradation impacts both the primary adult and juvenile resource bases, this can have marked synergistic effects on threatening population viability. By contrast, destroying nesting sites has only a small effect on accelerating the impact of deteriorating prey availability. Through integrating community-level feedback between habitat degradation/change and population dynamics/structure, our approach provides a comparative framework for assessing the relative importance of distinct mechanisms through which habitat degradation ultimately drives extinction risk.

O_LIEnvironmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding is an emerging tool for biodiversity assessment in freshwater systems, offering high-resolution insights into community composition. Here, we apply eDNA metabarcoding to evaluate the ecological impacts of Eurasian beaver (Castor fiber) activity within a seminatural enclosure in the Scottish Highlands. C_LIO_LIWe collected seasonal water samples from nine sites, six influenced by beaver dams and three control sites with no evidence of beaver engineering, across a 40-hectare enclosure. Samples were analysed for vertebrate and macroinvertebrate diversity using established 12S and COI markers. C_LIO_LIVertebrate alpha diversity did not differ significantly between beaver and control sites, likely reflecting the small spatial scale and low species richness of upland Scottish streams. However, community composition differed significantly between treatments, especially for fish (PERMANOVA, R2 = 0.55, P < 0.001), with beaver-influenced sites dominated by three-spined stickleback and control sites by brown trout. Macroinvertebrate communities showed a 78% increase in gamma diversity in beaver-modified habitats relative to controls. Species composition varied strongly with beaver presence (PERMANOVA, R2 = 0.29, P < 0.001), likely due to the creation of lentic-lotic mosaics and associated microhabitat diversity. Seasonal variation was significant in both taxonomic groups, with the lowest species richness and highest community dispersion observed in summer, probably reflecting hydrological and temperature-driven dynamics in eDNA production and transport. C_LIO_LIOur findings reinforce previous evidence that beaver dam-building activity enhances beta diversity in headwater systems. Additionally, we demonstrate that eDNA metabarcoding is a sensitive method for detecting spatial patterns in freshwater biodiversity associated with these activities at scales ranging from tens to hundreds of meters. These approaches could inform future monitoring strategies aligned with landscape-scale beaver management and reintroductions. C_LI

Winter can affect animal population dynamics by limiting resource availability and increasing energetic costs of movement caused by deep snow. Given the rapid alteration of snowpack properties due to climate change, quantifying how snow characteristics influence reproduction and physical condition is critical. We evaluated how snow cover duration, depth, and density affect spring body mass, reproduction probability, and subsequent autumn body mass of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) using 45 years of individual-based data at Ram Mountain, Alberta, Canada, along with historical snow records reconstructed via the SNOWPACK model. Using Bayesian structural equation modeling, we quantified the direct and indirect effects of snow across different sex and age classes. Long and deep snow covers reduced spring body mass across all demographic groups, with yearlings, especially males, losing up to 0.12 kg per additional cm of snow depth. Harsh snow conditions reduced the probability of reproduction for adult females and generated a compensatory indirect effect on mass by avoiding the energetic costs of reproduction. In contrast, yearlings showed no compensatory responses and entered the following autumn in poor condition (up to 14% lighter for males and 8% for females following the deepest snow years). The impact of snow density on autumn mass of adult males was density-dependent, shifting from beneficial at low density (+0.09 kg per kg/m3) to detrimental at high density (-0.04 kg per kg/m3). The effects of snow conditions generate persistent, context-dependent carry-over effects across seasons. Our study suggests that distinct demographic groups rely on different mechanisms to cope with environmental constraints, highlighting complex, time-lagged consequences of changing winter climate on alpine herbivore populations.

Mark-recapture analyses on the delineation of natural populations between areas often assume random sampling, with a between/within (B/W) area resighting ratio that declines towards zero as the population components of two areas become more-and-more isolated from one another, with fewer-and-fewer individuals mixing between areas. I use an individual based population model split in two areas to simulate this result, analysing also for the potential effects of the space-time fidelity of the mark-recapture sampling in the areas. I find that small B/W resighting ratios--that traditionally is taken as evidence of population isolation--can easily be observed within a completely mixing population if a random sampling scheme is restricted in space and/or time. Random sampling within restricted areas and time windows is not sufficient to estimate mixing rates and population isolation between areas, unless the resighting rates are analysed by a method that accounts both for the space-time fidelity of the scientific sampling scheme and the space-time fidelity of the distributional behaviour of the individuals in the population.

Minimum viable populations (MVPs) are population levels large enough to surmount risk from demographic, environmental, and genetic stochasticity. MVPs are estimated by biologists to guide conservation practices. However, MVPs are generally estimated for a target population without regard for how they interact with intra- and inter-species population dynamics in the broader ecological community. Thus, how and why population dynamics interact with MVPs imposed by conservation biologists remain unclear. When MVPs are imposed on a continuous population model, traditional analyses fail to capture the range of possible outcomes those MVPs create. Here, we describe viability space decomposition (VSD) as a mathematical tool to systematically analyze the potential crossing of MVPs during population dynamics. We demonstrate that different extinction and survival outcomes can be recovered from a model with imposed MVPs using three VSD concepts in junction with a traditional phase portrait: mortality manifolds which separate conditions that lead to different existential outcomes, ordering manifolds which determine the order of extinction events for multiple populations, and collapse manifolds which determine the survival or extinction of one species given the loss of another. We employ these methods with a standard consumer-resource model, and the methods can be scaled to systems with more species. VSD is a useful tool for conservation biologists and community ecologists concerned with boundary crossing problems in any dynamical system.

Changing climates are reshaping animal populations, but our understanding of how demographic trends are shaped by individual responses to local environmental conditions is often limited to long-term studies with restricted spatial scales. Increasing evidence suggests that climatic extremes exert differential selection pressures across environments, often leading to nonstationary biological responses among populations. Participatory science (i.e. citizen science) observations can detect this variation at large geographic scales, but analyses of these data often lack insight into the individual-level responses that are required to explain the origins of such variation. Here we present a new research framework that uses long-term data to validate, then inform analyses of participatory science data to measure reproductive responses to environmental variation across large geographic scales. We use this approach to investigate how reproduction in a montane-adapted songbird, the mountain chickadee (Poecile gambeli), varies across elevations and latitudes in response to extreme scarcity and extreme accumulation of snow throughout the Sierra Nevada Mountains in North America. Chickadee reproduction in lower and higher elevation populations was often differentially impacted by drought and deluge snowfall extremes, but these relationships varied across latitudes. Reproductive performance in the northern Sierra Nevada was negatively affected by snow deluge conditions at high elevations, whereas snow drought conditions reduced reproductive output at low elevations. These relationships changed in the central Sierras where drought conditions negatively impacted both elevations, but deluge conditions improved reproductive performance at both low and high elevations. Reproduction in the southern Sierra Nevada was less affected by spring snow levels, likely due to the lower snow accumulation and earlier snowmelt in this region. These results emphasize the power of long-term studies to inform and interpret participatory science data in order to better understand how animal responses to environmental extremes vary across large geographic scales.