Ecosphere

Nutrient availability, ecosystem productivity, and consumer assemblages are intricately linked through complex interactions and feedbacks. Nutrients influence the diversity and functional roles of consumers via shifts in resource quality and quantity, and consumers can alter ecosystem production and nutrient availability. However, our understanding of how characteristics of consumers respond to and influence concomitant shifts in nutrient availability and production is limited. We quantified the response of well-studied consumer assemblages (benthic invertebrates and zooplankton) to realistic nutrient loads that altered gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER). We fertilized 14 outdoor experimental ponds for 2 months and monitored total water column carbon (TC), nitrogen (TN), and phosphorus (TP), GPP, ER, and net ecosystem production (NEP) weekly. Then, we evaluated how fertilization and the variation in nutrients and metabolism caused by fertilization were related to shifts in consumer assemblages. Fertilization increased water column TN and TP and reduced TC:TP ratios, TN:TP ratios, and rates of GPP and ER. However, consumer assemblages were more tightly linked to variation in nutrient availability and production across ponds than to fertilization. Greater declines in benthic diversity occurred in ponds with higher average TN:TP ratios during the experiment. Consistent with predicted effects of cladocerans on nutrient availability, shifts in cladoceran abundances were positively associated with average water column TN:TP ratios during the experiment. Finally, elevated GPP and ER were associated with greater increases in the abundance of benthic invertebrate predators, suggesting the possibility of top-down control. Our study highlights the critical role of consumer-mediated processes in the interaction between nutrient availability and production. Manuscript HighlightsO_LIFertilization reduced pond gross primary production and ecosystem respiration rates. C_LIO_LIInvertebrate predator abundance was inversely related to gross primary production. C_LIO_LIShifts in consumer assemblages were tightly linked to nutrients and production. C_LI

O_LINitrogen (N) is limiting for terrestrial herbivores, particularly over winter. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) have adapted to seasonal scarcity of N by accruing muscle mass during the growing season when N is more abundant. C_LIO_LINitrogen stored in muscle tissue is then relied upon during winter to compensate for dietary deficits. Once their diet shifts from N-rich vascular plants to N-poor lichen over winter, caribou can lose [~]30% of their muscle mass. As catabolized N is shed in urine on wintering grounds, caribou could act as elemental transport across seasons and landscapes. Furthermore, if deposited N is taken up by lichen or other winter forage, it might enrich the nitrogen-poor winter diet of caribou in the future. C_LIO_LIWe tested this potential transport via three steps. We analysed Cladonia spp. lichen and vascular plants upon which caribou forage across Fogo Island, Newfoundland, using %N content as our metric of forage quality. We then compared seasonal habitat selection responses to forage quality by caribou using integrated step selection analyses. In summer, caribou selected areas with higher vascular plant %N but did not select nor avoid Cladonia quality. In contrast, caribou selected sites with higher quality Cladonia in winter but responded neutrally to vascular plant quality. C_LIO_LIWe compared seasonal distributions of caribou to determine whether nitrogen consumed in summer and deposited in winter would occur in spatially discrete locations. Population-level kernel density estimates for summer and winter in this island herd were mostly non-overlapping, lending credence to the potential landscape effects of N transport. C_LIO_LIWhen viewed together with established seasonal changes in woodland caribou physiology, sociality, and forage preferences, the shifts in habitat selection and seasonal ranges we observe here could serve as an adaptive strategy for caribou to recycle N and mitigate winter nutrient scarcity. C_LI

O_LIAgricultural intensification can support the expansion of introduced species which are highly adapted to human-modified landscapes, but the mechanisms by which this occurs are often unclear. C_LIO_LIHere we investigate the spatial ecology of a rapidly expanding introduced bumble bee (Bombus impatiens) and a native congener (B. mixtus) in agricultural landscapes of southwestern British Columbia, Canada. We used microsatellite genotyping and spatially explicit capture-recapture models to compare the foraging distance of the two species, and fitted hierarchical models to compare their abundance, behaviour (nest searching vs foraging), and lineage survival as a function of landscape composition and configuration. C_LIO_LIWe found that B. impatiens had a broader foraging range than B. mixtus, and that its colony/worker abundance were positively associated with the surrounding area of residential gardens, but decreased relative to B. mixtus abundance in response to increasing seminatural area. In contrast, B. mixtus colony abundance decreased in landscapes with a greater area of intensively managed berry crops. C_LIO_LIWe observed fewer B. impatiens queens per survey in landscapes with more low-disturbance landcover, and hypothesize space use of this species could be shaped by concentration on potential nesting habitat. Consistent with this observation, nest searching behaviour was more common for B. impatiens queens, while B. mixtus queens were primarily observed foraging, suggesting these two species derive different value from agricultural landscapes during colony establishment. C_LIO_LIFinally, we found that the rate of lineage re-capture between 2022 colonies and 2023 spring queens was nearly 10-fold higher for B. impatiens than for B. mixtus, indicating a greater capacity of the introduced species to complete its life cycle in agro-natural landscape mosaics. C_LIO_LIOur results suggest that differences in spatial ecology may contribute to the differential success of these two species in human-modified landscapes, and provide insight into the mechanisms by which land-use change shapes community composition. C_LI O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=184 HEIGHT=200 SRC="FIGDIR/small/723627v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (62K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1e72eacorg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@a958a0org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1f970b6org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@156f522_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG Graphical abstract. Coloured diagrams of B. mixtus and B. impatiens are credited to Elaine Evans and the Xerces Society, with permission.

O_LICalluna vulgaris is often managed in the UK by rotational burning, but this practice has recently been banned on peat with depth greater than 30-40 cm. It is unclear how then to manage the large areas of Calluna on blanket bogs used for sport shooting because without managed burning, fuel loads and wildfire risk will increase as the Calluna ages within the artificially narrow age distributions created by burn management. C_LIO_LIWe developed a model of Calluna mortality and management to understand duration and persistence of post-management effects. This allows us to assess how long it will take to reach a more natural age structure which would allow increased diversity if management ceases. C_LIO_LIOur results show that management effects persist for around 50 years depending on site-specific mortality rates. Active management may therefore be needed either to mitigate the elevated risk of severe wildfire or to speed up this transition. C_LIO_LISome studies have employed, as unmanaged analogues, Calluna stands that were last managed <50 years ago, but such studies may have unintentionally biased their results by observing Calluna still in post-management recovery leading to an over-estimation of wildfire risk associated with more natural blanket bogs. C_LIO_LISynthesis and applications: with the banning of burning as a management tool for Calluna on deep peat, alternative management is now likely needed as our model shows it could take around 50 years for the Calluna to reach a more natural age distribution. Mowing can replicate some of the effects of managed burning but requires repeated intervention and may compress the peat surface from repeated machine tracking. Rewetting and Sphagnum reintroduction may offer a more sustainable management approach to lowering Calluna fuel loads and reducing severe wildfire risk by creating wetter sub-optimal conditions for Calluna growth and thereby altering the competitive balance between Sphagnum and Calluna. Further work is needed to assess the efficacy of rewetting in controlling fuel loads and how this varies with climate and local pressures. More broadly, this work highlights the need to quantify the persistence of past management regimes to understand ecological trajectories. C_LI

Dams can significantly alter natural riverine systems, but their impact on movement across rivers for most terrestrial vertebrates is poorly known. The completion of Glen Canyon and Flaming Gorge dams in Arizona and Utah (southwestern United States) profoundly changed the Colorado and Green Rivers and have altered habitat for many species. The common side-blotched lizard (Uta stansburiana) offers an excellent opportunity to examine the effects of riverine impoundments on migration and gene flow in terrestrial biodiversity. To assess these effects, we collected tissue samples from 241 Uta stansburiana above and below Glen Canyon Dam and on both sides of the Colorado river at three separate study areas. We used eight microsatellite loci to estimate genetic exchange in the context of genetic diversity and structure. One study area below Flaming Gorge Dam and above Glen Canyon Dam has annual periods of warmer water temperatures and lower flows that are closer to pre-dam conditions, whereas two study areas below Glen Canyon Dam have cold water temperatures year-round, and less pronounced seasonal low flow episodes. We predicted that warmer water temperatures above Glen Canyon Dam would promote greater genetic exchange among populations than below the dam. However, we found evidence for low levels of genetic exchange between sites both above and below Glen Canyon Dam, and a moderate amount of exchange at a site below this dam where lizards could conceivably move from one side to the other. Our results imply that 1) the changes in water temperature and hydrology in dam-altered rivers are a barrier for this species even when the distance from the dam is great; and 2) genetic exchange may be dependent on river morphology. These results are relevant to other small vertebrates, particularly ectotherms, that occupy habitat proximal to a dammed river and has implications for the conservation management of impounded river systems.

O_LIChanges in habitat structure across species distributions may contribute to the generation and maintenance of range limits, but few studies have evaluated this by directly measuring habitat availability across relevant spatial scales. C_LIO_LIHere, we test the predictions that coarse-scale and patch-level habitat availability decline towards and beyond the northern range limit of Pacific coastal dune endemic Camissoniopsis cheiranthifolia. We used aerial imagery and geographic information system (GIS) tools to measure the coarse-scale availability of coastal dune habitat in California and Oregon. The availability of finer-scale habitat patches specifically suitable for C. cheiranthifolia was measured in a 2-generation field survey of > 4,200 5m x 5m plots randomly distributed across 1100 km of coastal dune habitat transcending the species northern range limit. At each plot, we estimated the proportion of area that contained suitable habitat as well as recorded occupancy by C. cheiranthifolia. As an alternative approach to visually estimating habitat suitability, we recorded plant community composition at each plot to predict beyond-range habitat suitability using a random forest model. C_LIO_LIContrary to our predictions, we found that coastal dune habitat, measured coarsely from aerial imagery, was more abundant and continuous towards and beyond the northern range limit. At the fine scale, however, the proportion of plots with suitable habitat (patch suitability) and the proportion of habitat within plots that was suitable (patch size) declined across the range limit. Moreover, patches were more isolated from one another and, in one survey year, less temporally stable towards and beyond the range limit. Finally, occupancy by C. cheiranthifolia was less likely in smaller, more isolated, and temporally unstable patches, providing mechanistic insight to the previously observed decline in occupancy towards the range limit. C_LIO_LISynthesis: Taken together, our results suggest that fine-scale habitat patch configuration changes in ways that likely impede patch colonization, thereby reducing occupancy and limiting the species northern distribution. Thus, consideration of geographic variation in patch and landscape structure, rather than only coarse-scale habitat availability, may be essential for understanding the processes that limit species ranges. C_LI

QuestionsEcological monitoring, repeated collection of ecological data, is essential to document how ecosystems respond to change. In grasslands, different vegetation monitoring protocols are used across disciplines, making it difficult to address multiple management objectives or research questions. We asked four questions about how three common vegetation monitoring protocols compare. (1) How do the protocols differ in how they collect data? (2) How do the protocols differ in their utility? (3) In what ways do vegetation measurements quantitatively differ across protocols? (4) What are each protocols strengths? LocationThis study was conducted on working ranches in the Southern Great Plains with vegetation consisting mainly of native forbs and grasses. MethodsWe implemented three protocols at each site: (1) the Rangeland Analysis Platform (RAP), (2) the Grassland Effectiveness Monitoring (GEM) protocol, and (3) a typical pollinator ecology survey protocol. We qualitatively compared each protocols utility and quantitatively compared cover measurements that each produced. ResultsAll three protocols displayed positive associations within cover categories, but differed in actual cover measurements. The RAP protocol, which uses remote sensing, measured the highest total vegetation cover. The GEM protocol, a line-point intercept method, had more capability to capture fine-scale cover patterns. The GEM protocol measured the most bare ground while the Pollinator protocol measured more forb coverage. ConclusionFine-scale methods like the GEM protocol are most appropriate to address objectives that require capturing small patterns that would otherwise be overlooked with methods like quadrats or remote sensing. Remote sensing is advantageous when monitoring large areas or inaccessible land, but may over-estimate cover. The Pollinator protocol is best equipped to address questions regarding flower abundance and richness. Similarities among protocols can facilitate synergy across disciplines for more effective monitoring. We emphasize the importance of denoting a clear scale and scope of monitoring objectives before selecting methods.

Urban pollinator gardens can provide refugia and support diverse populations of native bees amid threats from habitat destruction, pesticides, and potential ecological pressures from the introduced honey bee (Apis mellifera (Linnaeus, 1748)). The University of California, Berkeley, maintained a native bee garden at the Oxford Tract research facility to study the biodiversity, phenology, and foraging habits of urban bees from 2003 to 2009. That garden was decommissioned, and a new garden was re-established in 2019. Using diversity observations from the early 2000s garden and non-lethal sampling techniques, we characterized plant-pollinator interactions between flowers and urban bees in the newer bee garden with a bipartite interaction network. Across 12 flower species, we observed two non-native pollinators, the honey bee (A. mellifera) and the alfalfa leafcutter (Megachile rotundata (Fabricius, 1793)), along with at least ten native bee species across three families (Apidae, Halictidae, Megachilidae). We found that, despite the garden being created for native bees, honey bees accounted for 84% of all pollination interactions. The most abundant native bees were sweat bees (Family: Halictidae). Generalist interactions dominated the network, as both honey and sweat bees foraged on most available flowers. Honey bees showed a significant positive correlation with floral abundance, visiting flowers with the highest number of inflorescences, whereas native bees did not show this preference. These results indicate that native bee garden stewardship could benefit from greater floral diversity, while avoiding the dominance of any single species with high floral abundance, thereby reducing the likelihood of direct competition with honey bees.

Invasive round goby Neogobius melanostomus have advanced eastward through the state of New York and provinces of Ontario and Quebec over the past two decades and are approaching Lake Champlain, one of the largest lakes in North America. This manuscript describes international efforts to monitor round goby populations during 2021-2025 on (a) the southern approach to Lake Champlain via the Hudson River and Champlain Canal, and (b) the northern approach to Lake Champlain via the Saint Lawrence River and Richelieu River. Monitoring utilized environmental DNA (eDNA), backpack electrofishing, beach seining, benthic trawling, and viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV) testing. In the Champlain Canal, round goby were captured as far north as the downstream side of the C1 dam (97 kilometers [km] from Lake Champlain) while eDNA detections occurred as far north as the upstream side of the C2 dam (90 km from Lake Champlain). In the Richelieu River, round goby were captured as far south as Saint-Marc-sur-Richelieu (82 km from Lake Champlain) while the southern-most eDNA detections occurred near the Canadian side of the international border (4 km from Lake Champlain). Water temperature influenced habitat usage of round goby in the Champlain Canal, with catch rates in near-shore areas declining at < 10 {degrees}C. All VHSV test results were non-detections at the mouth of the Richelieu River, while one positive and two inconclusive results occurred along the Champlain Canal. Together, these data have informed multiple mitigation measures and have implications for management of aquatic invasive species across North America.

Restoration of coastal salt marshes is often limited by their capability to revegetate, either through natural recruitment or active planting methods. Despite the critical need for efficient revegetation methods, direct seeding remains an underrepresented approach in coastal wetland restoration. Additionally, tidal inundation poses special challenges for coastal Seed-Based Restoration (SBR) relative to terrestrial habitats, with tides displacing seeds from the marsh platform. To determine factors potentially influencing successful establishment in coastal wetlands, we conducted a series of greenhouse and lab experiments with Salicornia pacifica (pickleweed), the dominant plant in California marshes. We determined pickleweed seed viability using standardized germination tests. Additionally, we tested factors that influence pickleweed seed viability and germination rates, such as soil moisture, soil type, and sowing depth. We found that pickleweed seeds had an average viability of 22.5%, which increased with larger-sized seeds. We also determined that the most effective dormancy-breaking pretreatments varied by soil type: a one-day cold stratification in freshwater maximized germination in benign soils, whereas a seven-day cold stratification in saltwater maximized germination in stressful soils. Finally, we determined that the optimal conditions for sowing seeds are surface sowing under moderate moisture. Creating conditions to maximize viability and germination is crucial to ensure the greatest chance of successful revegetation post restoration. Our study, which sequentially tested factors affecting different phases of the early life history of a dominant foundation species, can inform SBR for other coastal plants. This approach can help coastal land managers successfully implement SBR for habitat restoration.

Carolinian old-growth forests in southwestern Ontario are among the most biodiverse ecosystems in Canada, yet regeneration of several canopy tree species is increasingly constrained by intense white-tailed deer browsing and changing disturbance regimes. Windstorms frequently uproot trees in this region, creating tip-up mounds that alter soil structure, drainage, and microtopography. These microsites may provide important opportunities for seedling establishment, but their role in forest regeneration remains poorly understood. This study examined how tip-up mound microsites differ from adjacent ground microsites in soil properties and how these differences influence seedling survival. A total of 84 tip-up mounds were sampled across several conservation areas in Hamilton, Ontario. For each mound, soil samples were collected from the mound top and adjacent forest floor and analyzed for soil moisture, pH, organic matter, and texture. Seedlings of two deer-preferred native species, red oak (Quercus rubra) and black cherry (Prunus serotina), were planted on mound tops and adjacent ground microsites, and their survival was monitored over the growing season. Ground microsites had significantly higher soil moisture and organic matter than mound tops, whereas mound tops were consistently drier. Seedling responses differed between species: red oak survival was higher on ground microsites, while black cherry survival was higher on mound tops. Logistic regression analyses indicated that soil moisture was the strongest predictor of seedling survival, with contrasting responses between the two species. These results suggest that tip-up mounds create distinct environmental conditions that selectively favor different regeneration strategies. As white-tailed deer browsing continues to suppress regeneration on the forest floor - particularly in areas of high deer activity and low wildlife species richness - while windthrow frequency rises under climate change, tip-up mounds are poised to become increasingly critical regeneration niches for species capable of establishing under drier, well-aerated microsite conditions.

O_LISubmerged macrophytes are central to freshwater ecosystems functioning but are declining globally under multiple anthropogenic stressors. We aimed to identify general patterns in physiological responses and interaction types, and to assess whether a mechanistic understanding of stressor interactions can be developed from published evidence. C_LIO_LIWe systematically reviewed 12,858 records, identified 172 relevant papers, and extracted effect sizes from 124 experiments included in the meta-analysis. C_LIO_LIMost studies examined combinations of nutrient enrichment, shading, toxic trace metals, warming, and emerging contaminants such as PFAS and microplastics, typically under simplified 2 x 2 factorial laboratory designs. Additive effects dominated (50%), while synergistic interactions were relatively infrequent (14%). Antagonistic interactions often reflected dominance of a single stressor or compensatory responses, whereas synergisms were most frequent with metals combined with co-stressors enhancing bioavailability. C_LIO_LIOur synthesis suggests that accumulated stressors cause negative, but not necessarily amplified, responses, although the limited number of experiments testing more than two stressors means synergistic effects may be underestimated. We propose Stuckenia pectinata as a model organism because of its cosmopolitan distribution, experimental tractability, and available genomic resources, and argue that expanding stressor complexity, duration, and taxonomic breadth will strengthen predictions of macrophyte responses and inform freshwater conservation under global change. C_LI

IntroductionHuman land-use intensification and the resulting habitat loss are primary drivers of insect pollinator declines. Habitat restoration offers a promising approach to counteract these declines, yet landscape-level evaluations of bee responses to restoration and management remain limited. We conducted a two-year, landscape-scale study in Wisconsin, USA, to assess how different intensities of tallgrass prairie restoration and management affect bumble bees (Bombus spp.). ObjectivesThis study aimed to determine whether (1) bumble bee abundance and diversity increase with assisted restoration, and (2) outcomes differ between low-(seeded only) and moderate-intensity (seeded and managed with prescribed fire) interventions. MethodsUsing catch-and-release surveys, we measured bumble bee abundance and diversity at 32 sites representing a gradient in restoration intervention: no intervention (unassisted recovery), low intervention, and moderate intervention. ResultsBumble bee abundance and diversity were higher at assisted restoration sites (low and moderate intervention) than at unassisted sites. Although both tended to be greater at moderate than low intervention intensities, these differences were not statistically significant. Bumble bee community composition also differed across intervention intensity, driven by shifts in dominant species (e.g., B. impatiens and B. griseocollis). Rarer taxa, including endangered and vulnerable species, occurred only at assisted restoration sites, with the largest populations at moderate intervention sites. Across all sites, bumble bee responses were strongly and positively associated with floral abundance, but not with semi-natural habitat in the surrounding landscape. ConclusionOur findings demonstrate that assisted grassland restoration can effectively increase bumble bee abundance and diversity, supporting its value as a conservation practice for pollinators. Implications for Practice: (1) Grassland restorations targeting plant communities can successfully support nontarget pollinators across a range of management intensities and landscape contexts. Adding seeds of pollinator-preferred plants could improve restorations with low floral abundance and diversity. (2) Management of existing restorations is important to maintain abundant floral resources and diverse pollinator communities. Because sites varied widely in prescribed fire use, our findings likely represent a conservative estimate of its benefits, and higher intervention intensity (e.g., repeated seeding, regular fire, mechanical or chemical shrub and invasive plants control) may further enhance outcomes for bumble bees.

Plant communities within a metacommunity can vary widely in their degree of invasion by introduced species. Disturbance, propagule pressure, and biotic resistance are common explanations for this variation, but empirical evidence for these hypotheses is mixed. Alternatively, the community assembly framework predicts that local assembly filters determine both native and exotic composition, but lower trait variation in the introduced species pool may exclude them from certain sites. We examined evidence for this framework using observational data from forests and woodlands of Long Island, NY, USA. These forests vary in vegetation composition and invasion along a soil gradient. They are also highly disturbed and fragmented, yet some stands have almost no introduced plants. Using data collected in 1998 and 2021-22, we quantified relationships between community composition, soil characteristics, and functional traits for native and exotic assemblages, as indicators of environmental filtering. We found similar trait-environment relationships in native and introduced species, suggesting that both groups follow the same local assembly rules. Introduced species were predominantly found in sites with more nutrient-rich soils and were absent from sites with nutrient-poor soils. At the regional scale, the exotic species pool was biased toward trait values favored in more nutrient-rich environments, particularly high growth rates and low leaf C:N ratios, which explains their absence from nutrient-poor environments. These patterns were consistent over time, and stands that were uninvaded in 1998 remained so in 2021-22, supporting the robustness and reliability of short-term studies. This study shows that invasion patterns in plant communities can be explained by the assembly rules that govern native species. By linking local environmental filtering with regional species pool characteristics, this work advances our understanding of how some communities remain uninvaded despite high disturbance and propagule pressure. Overall, these results highlight the utility of the community assembly framework, and emphasize the importance of regional processes in constraining the local distribution of introduced species.

There is an urgent need to gather data on harvest rates of waterbirds in Europe to assess the sustainability of hunting. Estimates of total waterbird harvest in the United Kingdom (UK) and the relative harvest of different huntable species come from two separate surveys, the Value of Shooting (PACEC 2014) and National Gamebag Census (NGC, Aebischer 2019), and these have been recently used to explore the likelihood of unsustainable harvests of wild waterbirds by UK hunters (Ellis and Cameron 2022; Madden et al., 2025). The reliability of these sustainability estimates depends on how representative the original surveys are of hunter behaviour and success. There are also 1-3 million released game-farm mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) that takes up considerable and unquantified proportions of the UK waterbird harvest. Here we explore uncertainties in the UK winter harvest of wild waterfowl by comparing estimates from the NGC dataset with those from the Crown Estate coastal hunting clubs, and a novel approach using analysis of social-media images (2019/20 to 2023/24). We explore the difference in species-specific harvest with and without the uncertainties in the number of released mallard and the total number of duck harvested in the UK. Waterbird harvest estimates differ markedly depending on the input dataset and whether released mallard are included in the analysis. Confidence intervals of each estimate are inflated by uncertainties in the number of released game-farm mallard contributing to, and the size of that national bag. Estimates extrapolated from social media suggest the national harvest of several species may be considerably larger than the corresponding NGC estimates (e.g. Teal *2.07 and gadwall *11.2), while mallard harvests away from formal shoots represented by NGC are significantly lower (*0.71). Excluding released mallard reduces the statistical estimate of total wild duck harvest by 56-63%, which would have biologically significant effects if realised.

Spatial and spatiotemporal models are increasingly critical for understanding species distributions, tracking population change, and informing conservation decisions. As biological processes are influenced by increasing external pressures, including human disturbance or environmental change, accurate model predictions become essential for adaptive management. However, the reliability of spatial predictions depends on often-overlooked modelling choices, including the spatial resolution used to approximate underlying processes. Using long term monitoring data from a large-scale groundfish survey in the California Current ecosystem, we investigated how spatial model complexity affects the quality of ecological predictions and derived indices used for management. We fit spatial and spatiotemporal models of ocean temperature and fish biomass density for 27 commercially important species using varying levels of spatial resolution. We evaluated both in-sample and out-of-sample prediction, and effects on area-weighted biomass indices. Counter to common assumptions, increasing spatial approximation resolution did not universally improve predictions. Our case studies demonstrate that for many datasets, out-of-sample prediction quality peaked at intermediate spatial resolutions and declined at the finest scales. Through simulation testing, we found this pattern was strongest when spatial patterning had a small range and high spatial variance, and observation error was low. For most species, spatial resolution had a minimal effect on biomass trend estimates used in management, but for several commercially important rockfish species, resolution choices substantially affected both the scale and uncertainty of population indices. Our findings demonstrate that spatial model specification can substantially affect ecological inference, with direct implications for management and conservation planning. We provide practical guidance for ecologists on selecting appropriate spatial complexity through cross-validation. When out-of-sample prediction is a focus, appropriate approximation complexity should improve both parameter estimation accuracy and derived quantities.

O_LIStage-dependent interactions, in which different life cycle stages (e.g., juveniles, adults) exert different per-capita competitive effects, are widespread across ecological communities. However, whether explicitly accounting for such ontogenetic variation improves forecasts of stochastic community dynamics remains unclear. We tested how the strength of stage dependence and species life-history strategy influence the predictive accuracy of community models that either include or ignore stage-specific interactions. C_LIO_LIWe constructed stochastic two-species competition models using stage-structured matrix population models spanning five virtual life histories along the fast-slow continuum. Density dependence was imposed separately on juvenile survival, adult survival, progression, retrogression, or fertility, and the strength of stage dependence varied from adult-driven to juvenile-driven competition. We then fitted deterministic projection models with and without stage-dependent interaction terms to simulated time series and quantified predictive performance over 100 time-step forecasts using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). C_LIO_LIIncreasing stage dependence consistently reduced the predictive accuracy of models that ignored stage structure. However, absolute prediction errors remained small across all scenarios (MAPE < 0.7%), even under strong stage dependence. The influence of life-history strategy depended on which vital rate was density dependent: when juvenile survival was density dependent, faster life histories showed larger errors; when progression, retrogression, or fertility were density dependent, slower life histories exhibited greater errors; and when adult survival was density dependent, no consistent life-history effect emerged. Across simulations, temporal variation in population structure was low (coefficient of variation < 0.036), and prediction error was strongly associated with the magnitude of structural fluctuations rather than life-history pace per se. C_LIO_LISynthesis. Stage-dependent interactions can, in principle, alter stochastic competitive dynamics, but their practical importance for ecological forecasting depends on the extent to which population stage structure fluctuates through time. When environmental stochasticity dominates and stage structure remains near equilibrium, simpler models that ignore stage dependence provide robust approximations of community dynamics. Our results identify conditions under which demographic detail is necessary for forecasting and highlight the central role of structural variability in linking life-history strategy to community-level dynamics. C_LI

Microbial communities can shift under drought in ways that enhance plant performance during drought ("microbe-mediated acclimation"). However, it is also possible for microbial communities to shift in ways that worsen the effects of drought ("mal-acclimation"). It is unclear how and where microbe-mediated acclimation vs. mal-acclimation occurs, or if there are types of soils or microbial communities that are more likely to harbor microbes that enhance plant acclimation and limit mal-acclimation. We tested for microbe-mediated plant acclimation/mal-acclimation to drought in soils from 21 maize farms in the midwestern United States, spanning a range of climate, soil types, and management practices. We first conditioned soil microbial communities to drought vs. well-watered conditions in a greenhouse and then tested for microbe-mediated acclimation by growing maize in soils inoculated with the conditioned microbial communities under drought and well-watered conditions. Drought-conditioned soils did not enhance plant performance under drought. In fact, one third of the farms exhibited mal-acclimation, especially under well-watered conditions where wet-conditioned soils reduced plant performance in well-watered contemporary conditions. Farm management practices, climate, soil texture, and microbial diversity generally did not predict when this microbe-mediated mal-acclimation occurred. Overall, these results suggest that in agricultural soils, microbes may frequently impede-rather than facilitate-plant acclimation to soil moisture levels. Open research statementThe plant and soil data used in this study are available via the Environmental Data Initiative repository at https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/f4a0db3a076cf6d8cef908947f82736e. The bacterial and fungal amplicon sequence data are available via the European Nucleotide Archive under accessions PRJEB110071 and PRJEB109827, respectively.

Guinea worm disease eradication efforts may benefit from environmental surveillance methods capable of detecting infected copepod intermediate hosts in aquatic habitats. We developed a three-dimensional, spatially explicit agent-based model to examine how ecological processes influence detection probability for a hypothetical water sampling method. The results show that surveillance sensitivity is shaped by the combined effects of larval diffusion, copepod density, and pond size, with interactions among these factors producing nonlinear relationships. Detection, in our model, was concentrated within a relatively restricted period after larvae matured to the infective stage and before dispersal and mortality reduced presence, indicating a limited spatiotemporal window for effective sampling. Surveillance performance peaked under intermediate dispersal regimes that generated sufficient spatial overlap between larvae and intermediate hosts, while both limited dispersal and excessive diffusion reduced detection by constraining encounters or diluting larval concentrations. Increasing habitat size reduced detection by diluting larval concentrations, but the magnitude of this effect depended on copepod density and dispersal dynamics, producing nonlinear and threshold responses rather than simple scaling with pond volume. Spatial and temporal patterns of detection shifted as larvae dispersed, with the most favorable detection periods occurring when both larval abundance and intermediate host encounters were elevated. These findings indicate that surveillance can be guided by local ecological conditions. When the timing of larval introduction is uncertain, effective surveillance requires repeated sampling over time to capture transient windows of detectability and the sampling will be less effective in very stagnant and highly mixed waterbodies. Overall, this study demonstrates how mechanistic modeling can support the design and interpretation of environmental surveillance strategies for Guinea worm eradication programs. Author summaryGuinea worm disease is close to eradication but confirming that transmission has fully stopped remains difficult because detecting infectious larvae in water is challenging. Transmission depends on freshwater copepods that become infected after ingesting Guinea worm larvae. These copepods are short-lived and unevenly distributed within ponds, and infected individuals may die before larvae reach the infective stage. As a result, environmental detection is inherently uncertain. We developed a three-dimensional agent-based model to simulate larval dispersal, copepod infection, and water sampling in a pond environment. The model shows that detection is constrained to a brief period when mature larvae and copepods overlap in space and time, and that this window depends strongly on local ecological conditions such as larval dispersal, copepod density, and pond size. Because infected copepods can be present outside these narrow detection windows, negative water samples do not necessarily indicate absence of transmission, highlighting the need for repeated, spatially targeted surveillance during the final stages of eradication.

Ectomycorrhizal (EcM) fungi are well-recognized symbionts impacting tree health and ecosystem functioning globally, yet understanding of their timing of proliferation in soils across seasons and years remains limited. We analyzed monthly patterns of EcM fungal abundance and community structure over two years in five temperate monodominant forest plots via quantitative PCR and Illumina sequencing. We found that the phenological dynamics of EcM fungi differed significantly by host tree leaf habit, fungal exploration type, fungal genus, and soil moisture. Overall, total EcM fungal abundances based on qPCR consistently peaked in autumn, and were more dynamic in evergreen than deciduous plots, supporting ideas of surplus carbon and asymmetric above-belowground dynamics. Longer-distance exploration types peaked earlier and were more stable than shorter-distance types, suggesting an independent and supportive role in releasing spring nutrients. About half of 20 focal taxa consistently peaked in either autumn, summer, or spring, while others were either host- and/or year-dependent. Our findings highlight that phenology is a key EcM fungal trait best explained by both host and fungal contributions, and future studies across biomes should consider seasonal shifts and sampling to elucidate phenological traits. Summary- The timing of belowground production and seasonal community dynamics remain poorly understood for ectomycorrhizal (EcM) fungi. - We collected soils monthly for two years from five temperate monodominant forest plots. - Fungal production peaked in autumn, shorter-distance and evergreen-associated spanned wider ranges, and half of focal fungal genera showed seasonal preference, emphasizing autumn surplus carbon and spring nutrients from long-distance types. - Future studies should consider seasonal shifts when sampling EcM fungal communities, and forest carbon models should include asymmetric above-belowground phenology. Translated Summary (Spanish)- La fenologia de la produccion y composicion de comunidades de hongos ectomicorrizicos (EcM) es poco estudiada. - Recolectamos suelos mensualmente por dos anos de cinco parcelas mono-dominantes templados. - Produccion maxima de hongos ocurrio en otono, hongos asociados con arboles siempreverdes y de exploracion de corta-distancia observaron rangos mas amplios, y la mitad de generos de hongos focales observaron preferencia estacional, enfatizando extra carbono en otono y nutrientes en primavera de tipos larga-distancia. - Estudios deben considerar cambios estacionales para el muestreo de hongos EcM, y modelos de carbono deben incluir fenologia asimetrica entre hojas y hongos. Plain language summaryEctomycorrhizal fungi are critical for the global carbon cycle, but their seasonal and inter-annual growth patterns remain unclear. We sample soil DNA monthly over two years across five different monodominant temperate forest stands. We find an overall belowground peak in autumn, with significantly later growth under wetter conditions, more dynamism with evergreen trees, and distinct spring growth by longer-distance fungi.