Drought to deluge: Differential impacts of snow on mountain chickadee reproduction across the Sierra Nevada mountains

Changing climates are reshaping animal populations, but our understanding of how demographic trends are shaped by individual responses to local environmental conditions is often limited to long-term studies with restricted spatial scales. Increasing evidence suggests that climatic extremes exert differential selection pressures across environments, often leading to nonstationary biological responses among populations. Participatory science (i.e. citizen science) observations can detect this variation at large geographic scales, but analyses of these data often lack insight into the individual-level responses that are required to explain the origins of such variation. Here we present a new research framework that uses long-term data to validate, then inform analyses of participatory science data to measure reproductive responses to environmental variation across large geographic scales. We use this approach to investigate how reproduction in a montane-adapted songbird, the mountain chickadee (Poecile gambeli), varies across elevations and latitudes in response to extreme scarcity and extreme accumulation of snow throughout the Sierra Nevada Mountains in North America. Chickadee reproduction in lower and higher elevation populations was often differentially impacted by drought and deluge snowfall extremes, but these relationships varied across latitudes. Reproductive performance in the northern Sierra Nevada was negatively affected by snow deluge conditions at high elevations, whereas snow drought conditions reduced reproductive output at low elevations. These relationships changed in the central Sierras where drought conditions negatively impacted both elevations, but deluge conditions improved reproductive performance at both low and high elevations. Reproduction in the southern Sierra Nevada was less affected by spring snow levels, likely due to the lower snow accumulation and earlier snowmelt in this region. These results emphasize the power of long-term studies to inform and interpret participatory science data in order to better understand how animal responses to environmental extremes vary across large geographic scales.