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AIDS

○ Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)

Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match AIDS's content profile, based on 32 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Chronic opioid-associated immune dysregulation among people living with HIV

Bever, B.; Underwood, M.; Park, B.; Pereira Ribeiro, S.; Cook, R. R.; Kunkel, L.; Korthuis, P. T.; Lancioni, C.

2026-09-03 immunology 10.64898/2026.08.31.748399 medRxiv
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Objectives: Persistent immune dysregulation contributes to chronic disease among people living with HIV (PWH), even after viral suppression with antiretroviral therapy (ART). Although chronic opioid exposure is associated with adverse clinical outcomes, its impact on immune homeostasis during ART remains incompletely understood. We investigated whether opioid use disorder (OUD) is associated with persistent systemic and cellular immune dysregulation despite ART-mediated reductions in HIV viral load (VL). Methods: Peripheral blood was collected longitudinally from PWH with OUD (PWH/OUD+) and detectable HIV VL during 6 months of optimized ART (months 0, 3, and 6). A reference cohort of PWH without OUD (PWH/OUD-) and suppressed HIV VL provided a single blood sample. Immune profiling included plasma inflammatory biomarkers, multiplex cytokine analyses, spectral flow cytometry, and assessment of monocyte cytokine responses following lipopolysaccharide (LPS) stimulation. Mixed-effects models adjusted for HIV VL and VL-stratified analyses were performed. Results: PWH/OUD+ exhibited persistent immune dysregulation despite reductions in HIV VL. Plasma sCD163, sCD14, fractalkine, and I-TAC remained elevated, whereas TGF-{beta}1 was reduced. OUD was associated with expansion of CD16 monocytes and altered expression of CCR2, CD38, and CD11b. CD4 and CD8 T cells, NK cells, and B cells also exhibited persistent alterations in markers of activation, metabolism, and trafficking. Monocytes from PWH/OUD+ displayed attenuated cytokine responses following LPS stimulation. Conclusions: OUD is associated with persistent systemic and cellular immune dysfunction in PWH despite ART-mediated viral suppression, supporting opioid exposure as an independent contributor to chronic immune dysregulation that may promote inflammation, immune dysfunction, and long-term HIV-associated comorbidities. Keywords: HIV, Opioid-use disorder, innate immunity, cytokine

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NLRP3 Activation and Impaired TGF-β Anti-Inflammatory Pathways Predict Vascular Risk in PWH on ART

Barbehenn, A. S.; Sheikhzadeh, C. H.; Savur, S.; Lundgren, E.; Sarvadhavabhatla, S.; Pae, V.; Donaire, M. S.; Schuler, A.; Chu, X.; Maguire, C. T.; Topal, S.; Ganesan, A.; Yabes, J. M.; Larson, D. T.; Lalani, T.; Ewers, E. C.; Colombo, R. E.; Tomalka, J. A.; Hsue, P. Y.; Sekaly, R.-P. Y.; Agan, B. K.; Lee, S. A.

2026-08-10 hiv aids 10.64898/2026.08.05.26359809 medRxiv
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Importance: The immune mechanisms driving vascular disease remain incompletely understood. People with HIV (PWH), even during effective antiretroviral therapy (ART), exhibit persistent immune activation and inflammation, which may contribute to higher rates of vascular disease and mortality compared with people without HIV (PWoH). Leveraging a cohort of U.S. military personnel followed from HIV diagnosis through long-term ART suppression, we sought to identify immunologic pathways underlying increased vascular risk. Objective: To identify plasma biomarkers reflecting distinct immune mechanisms that predict incident vascular outcomes in ART-suppressed PWH. Design: Case-cohort study within the U.S. Military HIV Natural History Study. Setting: Longitudinal, multicenter observational cohort. Participants: A total of 1,002 ART-suppressed PWH (HIV RNA <50 copies/mL) were included, with N=135 vascular event (VE) cases and N=702 controls. Cases encompassed atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) - coronary artery disease (CAD), myocardial infarction (MI), stroke (CVA), peripheral artery disease (PAD) - and venous thrombotic events (VTE) - deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE). Exposures: Thirty-three soluble plasma analytes quantified using a high-sensitivity multiplex assay from samples collected [&ge;]1 year after ART suppression. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was incident ASCVD. Associations between cytokine concentrations (individual and clustered) and vascular risk were evaluated using unsupervised clustering, Cox proportional hazards models, and causal inference (to estimate 5-year ASCVD risk under hypothetical cytokine alterations). Mediation analyses assessed direct and indirect effects of key inter-related cytokines. Secondary outcome included any VE (ASCVD plus VTE). Covariates included traditional cardiovascular risk factors, HIV clinical variables, and demographics. False discovery rate (FDR) adjustment was applied using the Benjamini-Hochberg method. Results: Cytokine clusters reflecting NLRP3 inflammasome activation and persistent inflammation (IL-18, IL-6) and individual markers (IL-18: HR=1.89, q=0.007; TGF-{beta}2: HR=0.74, q=0.026) were associated with increased ASCVD risk. IL-18 remained nominally significant after adjusting for traditional risk factors (p<0.05) but did not meet FDR significance (q<0.05). Conclusions and Relevance: NLRP3 inflammasome activation and reduced TGF-{beta}2, indicating loss of anti-inflammatory and repair mechanisms, may contribute to atherogenesis in ART-suppressed PWH. These findings highlight potential interventional targets for mitigating inflammation-driven vascular risk and warrant validation in larger cohorts to inform novel therapeutic strategies.

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IL-10 and Coordinated Cytokine Responses Predict Rapid HIV Reservoir Decay in Acute Treated HIV Infection

Barbehenn, A.; Shi, L.; Shao, J.; Hoh, R.; Hartig, H. M.; Pae, V.; Sarvadhavabhatla, S.; Donaire, M. S.; Sheikhzadeh, C. H.; Savur, S.; Milush, J.; Laird, G. M.; Mathias, M.; Ritter, K.; Martin, J.; Hecht, F.; Pilcher, C.; Cohen, S. E.; Buchbinder, S.; Havlir, D.; Gandhi, M.; Henrich, T. J.; Hatano, H.; Ribeiro, S. P.; Tomalka, J. A.; Deeks, S. G.; Sekaly, R. P.; Wang, J.; Hudson, A.; Lee, S. A.

2026-08-21 hiv aids 10.64898/2026.08.18.26360728 medRxiv
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Background: The HIV reservoir is established within days of infection and persists despite antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, data describing early reservoir decay dynamics and the host immune responses associated with this process remain limited. Methods: We analyzed more than 500 longitudinal blood samples from 67 individuals treated during acute HIV infection. Plasma cytokines and HIV reservoir size (intact and defective DNA) were quantified. Associations between immune markers and reservoir decay following ART initiation were assessed using unsupervised clustering, mixed-effects linear spline models, and nonlinear modeling. Results: Higher levels of IFN-{gamma}, IL-10, IL-18, and TNF- during weeks 24-52 of ART were associated with significantly faster decay of both intact and defective HIV DNA. These relationships were independent of ART initiation timing (days since infection), baseline viremia, initial CD4+ T cell count, and longitudinal CD4:CD8 ratio. Among these cytokines, IL-10 demonstrated the strongest association with accelerated reservoir decay, despite prior evidence linking it to larger reservoirs in SIV models. Discussion: These findings highlight the pleiotropic and stage-dependent roles of cytokines across acute to later stages of HIV, suggesting that a coordinated balance between immune activation and regulation of inflammation may promote early HIV reservoir decay.

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Multidimensional Social Vulnerability and Hepatic and Extrahepatic Outcomes in Adults With HIV/HBV Coinfection in the United States

Yendewa, G.; Chengsupanimit, T.; Dehghani, A.; Ahmed, A.; Mohareb, A.; Cohen, C.; Freeman, M.; Kim, H. N.; Ofotokun, I.; Dube, K.

2026-09-02 hiv aids 10.64898/2026.08.31.26361853 medRxiv
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Background: HIV/HBV coinfection is associated with substantial liver-related morbidity and mortality, yet the impact of social vulnerability (SV) on clinical outcomes has not been systematically assessed. We evaluated associations of multidimensional SV with mortality, hepatic, virologic, and extrahepatic organ outcomes among adults with HIV/HBV. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using TriNetX data from 110 U.S. healthcare organizations (2010-2026). We propensity score matched adults with HIV/HBV with and without documented SV 1:1 (2,024 per group). SV was defined using a four-domain framework encompassing material, healthcare access and engagement, interpersonal, and psychosocial vulnerability. Results: Over 15,900 person-years, SV was associated with higher mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 2.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.72-2.47), liver composite events (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.07-1.76), hepatic decompensation (HR, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.39-2.70), hepatic failure (HR, 2.39; 95% CI, 1.53-3.73), HBV viremia (HR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.32-2.16), and HIV viremia (HR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.71-2.46). SV was also associated with major adverse cardiovascular events (HR, 1.47), chronic kidney disease (HR, 1.49), and diabetes (HR, 1.25). Multidomain SV generally showed stronger associations than single-domain SV for most hepatic and virologic outcomes, with HR ranges of 1.76-2.62 versus 1.35-1.76 for single-domain SV. Healthcare access and engagement vulnerability was most consistently associated with mortality and hepatic outcomes. Conclusions: SV was associated with mortality, hepatic disease, impaired HIV/HBV control, extrahepatic organ morbidity, and acute care utilization in adults with HIV/HBV. SV assessment may improve risk stratification and identify actionable intervention targets during HIV/HBV care.

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Delay in antiretroviral therapy initiation is associated with worse mood symptoms in adults with chronic HIV disease

Lee, H.; O'Connor, C.; Hanly, G.; Chen, L.; Mahmood, D.; Moore, D. J.; Ellis, R. J.; Jiang, X.

2026-10-08 hiv aids 10.64898/2026.10.07.26364968 medRxiv
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Background. In the era of successful antiretroviral therapy (ART), mood disturbance remains highly prevalent in people with HIV (PWH). In the present study, we investigated the long-term legacy effects of long delay in ART initiation and low nadir CD4 count on mood symptoms in adults with HIV. The impacts of demographic and other HIV clinical factors were also examined. Methods. A total of 109 PWH (disease duration: 24.6{+/-}9.3 years) and 42 demographically matched healthy participants (people without HIV, or PWoH) participated in a cross-sectional study (41-70 years old (55.6{+/-}6.8), 62.9% African Americans, 27.2% female, 14.3{+/-}2.9 years of education). Mood symptoms were assessed with the Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II) and the Profile of Mood States (POMS). A comprehensive neuropsychological test battery was administered to assess neurocognitive function. Results. Despite largely comparable neurocognitive performance between PWH and PWoH , PWH had worse mood symptoms than PWoH, including higher total BDI-II (p<.001) and total POMS scores (p=.002), as well as higher score in all POMS sub-scores (p<.007), except Vigor (p=.724). Within the PWH group, longer delays in ART initiation, lower nadir CD4 count, and lower educational attainment were associated with worse mood symptoms. By contrast, current plasma CD4+ cell count, plasma detectable viral load, and HIV disease duration were not associated with either BDI-II or POMS score. Conclusion. Mood disturbance is highly prevalent in PWH on ART. The long-term legacy effects of delay in ART initiation and low nadir CD4 count on mood management reinforce the necessity of early ART initiation in clinical practice.

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Dynamic Prediction to Predict Virologic Failure in Antiretroviral Treated People Living with HIV: Cohort Analysis of Routine Electronic Health Records Data in the Western Cape, South Africa

Honwana, F.; Mukonda, E.; Gumedze, F.; Hsiao, N.-y.; Myer, L.; Lesosky, M.

2026-09-11 hiv aids 10.64898/2026.09.08.26362496 medRxiv
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Objectives Virologic failure (VF) remains a major challenge in HIV care, particularly in resource-limited settings where timely identification is critical. Dynamic prediction models can provide continuously updated, individual-level risk estimates using longitudinal biomarker data. However, their applicability to routinely collected electronic health record (EHR) data remains poorly understood. We developed and internally validated a dynamic prediction model for VF using routine EHR data from people with HIV (PWH) receiving antiretroviral therapy in South Africa. Methods A joint model (JM) linking a linear mixed-effects model for longitudinal HIV viral load (HIVVL) to a Cox model for time to first VF, adjusted for baseline age group and sex at birth, was developed using routine National Health Laboratory Service data from 122,425 PWH in the Western Cape, South Africa (SA) (January 2008-September 2018), randomly split into development (n = 91,818; 75%) and validation (n = 30,607; 25%) cohorts. Predictive performance was evaluated using time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Brier scores at 12 and 24 months. Results Overall, 12,547 PWH (10.2%) experienced VF. The current value-parameterized model was used and showed moderate discrimination (AUC: 0.69 and 0.73) and good calibration (Brier scores: 0.033 and 0.051) at 12 and 24 months. Dynamic predictions updated meaningfully at each visit, demonstrating potential to flag individuals at elevated VF risk for timely clinical intervention. Conclusions Dynamic prediction models hold genuine promises to support personalized, timely clinical decision-making for PWH. However, EHR data with sparse measurements, missing clinical covariates, and irregular follow-up limit discriminative performance despite adequate calibration, demonstrating that data quality and covariate availability are at least as consequential as modelling strategy in real-world prediction settings.

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Discordance Between Biomarker-Confirmed Antiretroviral Therapy and Self-Reported HIV Status Among People Living with HIV in Zambia and South Africa: A Secondary Analysis of HPTN 071 (PopART)

Nakalega, R.; Haines, D.; Hayes, R. J.; Eshleman, S. H.; Ayles, H.; Bock, P.; Floyd, S.; Fidler, S.; Clarke, W.; Agyei, Y.; Breaud, A.; Mirembe, B. G.; Nakabiito, C.; Donnell, D.

2026-07-27 hiv aids 10.64898/2026.07.22.26358720 medRxiv
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Background: Misclassification of HIV status in population-based surveys remains a critical barrier to accurate surveillance and program evaluation. Self-reported HIV status may diverge from objective measures, particularly among individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). We used biomarker-confirmed antiretroviral (ARV) drug detection to assess the prevalence and correlates of discordance between self-reported HIV status and biologic evidence of HIV treatment among people living with HIV (PLHIV) in Zambia and South Africa. Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of the HPTN 071 (PopART) cluster-randomized trial. At the 24-month survey visit, participants underwent HIV testing and laboratory assessment for ARV drugs in plasma. We defined discordant self-report (hereafter "non-disclosure") as reporting HIV-negative or unknown status among individuals with ARV drugs detected. We estimated the prevalence of non-disclosure, compared prevalence by study arm, and used modified Poisson regression to identify associated factors. We also examined whether non-disclosure was associated with viral suppression (<400 copies/mL). Results: Among 3,240 PLHIV with ARV drugs detected, 552 (17.0%) did not report an HIV-positive status--indicating that nearly one in six individuals on ART were misclassified by self-report. Non-disclosure did not differ between intervention and control arms (adjusted relative risk [aRR]: 1.03; 95% CI: 0.67-1.58). Non-disclosure was more common among younger individuals (age 18-24 years: aRR 2.30; 95% CI: 1.66-3.19), men (aRR: 1.39; 95% CI: 1.07-1.79), and those in formal employment (aRR: 1.42; 95% CI: 1.06-1.90). Individuals reporting condomless sex at last encounter were also more likely not to disclose (aRR: 1.59; 95% CI: 1.31-1.92). Viral suppression was high overall (93.7%) and did not differ by disclosure status (aRR: 1.06; 95% CI: 0.74-1.52). Conclusion: A substantial proportion of PLHIV receiving ART did not report a known HIV-positive status, highlighting important discordance between biomarker evidence and self-reported data. Despite high levels of viral suppression, these individuals remain "hidden" from routine surveillance, with implications for estimating HIV diagnosis and treatment coverage. Strategies that incorporate objective measures alongside self-report, and that address social and structural barriers to disclosure, are essential to improve the accuracy of HIV surveillance and guide effective public health responses.

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Plasma Proteomic Profiling Identifies a Subset of HIV Elite Controllers with Inflammatory Profiles Resembling People Without HIV

Falcinelli, S. D.; Maison, D. P.; Avila-Vargas, I.; Dalhuisen, T.; Jiang, C.; Lian, X.; Gao, C.; Shin, M.-G.; Thomas, R.; Feng, J.; Salazar, J.; Hoh, R.; Martin, J. N.; Deeks, S. P.; Hunt, P. W.; Lichterfeld, M.; Yu, X.; Henrich, T. J.; Peluso, M. J.

2026-09-13 immunology 10.64898/2026.09.06.749753 medRxiv
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Background: Elite controllers (ECs) are people with HIV (PWH) who suppress viral replication without antiretroviral therapy (ART). A subset, often termed exceptional elite controllers (EECs), harbor very small viral reservoirs, with few intact proviruses integrated into inactive chromosomal regions. Defining inflammatory signatures in ECs may clarify whether some approach a functionally cured state. Methods: We measured 384 plasma proteins in ART-naive ECs (n=62), ART-suppressed non-controllers (n=37), and people without HIV (PwoH) (n=50) using Olink proteomics, and compared proteomic profiles, clinical parameters, and intact reservoir data using FLIP-Seq. Hierarchical clustering identified ECs whose proteomic profiles most closely resembled PWoH; this subset was further analyzed using machine-learning approaches. Results: ART-suppressed non-controllers had higher inflammatory protein levels than ART-naive ECs, yet ECs still showed elevated inflammation and lower CD4:CD8 ratios compared with PWoH. Clustering analysis revealed a distinct subset of ECs (n=9) whose profiles closely matched those without HIV (ECs with PWoH-like proteomic profiles), a pattern not observed in ART-suppressed non-controllers. Compared to typical ECs, ECs with PWoH-like proteomic profiles had consistently lower IL-1{beta}, SCRN1, and BID, numerically lower intact proviral frequencies, and a high frequency of protective HLA alleles. Machine-learning analyses highlighted features that most strongly differentiated ECs with PWoH-like proteomic profiles from typical ECs, including reduced gut mucosal/intestinal epithelial-associated proteins, higher absolute CD4 counts, and lower levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines and cellular immune activation. Conclusions: These findings identify a subset of ECs with a PWoH-like inflammatory proteomic profile, accompanied by numerically lower intact HIV reservoirs and a high frequency of protective HLA alleles. Defining the mechanisms associated with this low-inflammatory state may provide insights into exceptional HIV control and inform strategies for durable HIV remission.

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ALDH Activity in Monocytes is Associated with Subclinical Coronary Atherosclerosis in Treated People with HIV-1

Dias, J.; El-Far, M.; Boczar, K.; Filali-Mouhim, A.; Benlarbi, M.; Moreira Gabriel, E.; Moreaux, J.; Khalfi, S.; Wiche Salinas, T. R.; Messier-Peet, M.; Isnard, S.; Routy, J.-P.; Chomont, N.; Finzi, A.; Chantrand-Lefebvre, C.; Tremblay, C.; Durand, M.; Ancuta, P.

2026-08-25 immunology 10.64898/2026.08.20.746037 medRxiv
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People living with HIV-1 (PWH) receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) exhibit an increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Coronary atherosclerotic plaque formation is linked to chronic immune activation, a process fueled in PWH by additional mechanisms likely including residual HIV-1 production and microbial translocation from the gut during ART. Our previous studies demonstrated that aldehyde dehydrogenase (ALDH), an enzyme converting vitamin A into retinoic acid (RA), is upregulated in myeloid cells upon exposure to viral/bacterial/fungal products and that RA promotes HIV-1 production. To explore the link between ALDH/RA pathway and CVD risk, we used PBMC/plasma from ART-treated PWH (PWH+ART; n=51) and people without HIV-1 (Pw/oH; n=63) from the Canadian HIV/Aging Cohort Study, with/without subclinical coronary atherosclerosis, measured by coronary computed tomography angiography. ALDH expression was analyzed by flow cytometry on monocyte subsets, dendritic cells, and CD4+ T-cells. Unsupervised t-SNE-guided FlowSOM analysis associated top ALDH activity with a monocyte phenotype. The frequency of ALDH+ monocytes and plasma levels of RA and retinol binding protein 4 were increased in PWH+ART versus Pw/oH, with the highest RA levels coinciding with detectable plasma levels of soluble HIV-1 gp120. Multivariate regression models linked ALDH activity in monocytes to subclinical coronary atherosclerosis (i.e., total plaque volume, low attenuated plaque volume, coronary artery calcification score) presence/burden in PWH+ART, independently of Framingham risk score. Finally, ALDH+ monocyte frequency and RA levels positively correlated with pericoronary fat attenuation index, an emerging CVD predictor. Thus, ALDH/RA pathway may represent a new marker of metabolic/immune dysfunction contributing to CVD risk in ART-treated PWH.

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Impact of HIV Self-Testing on Recent HIV Testing Among Women in Uganda: A Propensity Score Matched Analysis Using the 2022 UDHS

Emesu, G. K.; Najjuma, S.; Tiikabulamu, P.; Mukose, A. D.; Kagaayi, J.

2026-08-06 hiv aids 10.64898/2026.08.04.26359666 medRxiv
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Abstract Background: HIV self-testing (HIVST) has been promoted as a strategy to reach individuals who do not access facility-based testing. However, evidence on whether HIVST leads to more frequent testing among women of reproductive age in Uganda remains limited. This study evaluated the impact of HIV self-testing on recent HIV testing among women using nationally representative data. Methods: Data were drawn from the 2022 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey (UDHS), including 6,438 women aged 15-49 years. The primary outcome was recent HIV testing, defined as having tested for HIV within the 12 months preceding the survey. The treatment variable was ever having used HIV self-testing. Propensity score matching (PSM) with 1:1 nearest neighbour matching (caliper = 0.05) was used to balance observed covariates including parity, media exposure, education, residence, wealth quintile, health insurance, and age group. The average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) was estimated. Results: Among 6,438 women, 23.87% (1,537) reported ever using HIV self-testing. Recent HIV testing was observed in 67.4% of HIVST users compared to 47.4% of non-users (unmatched difference = 20%). After matching, HIVST use increased the likelihood of recent testing by 15.6 percent (ATT = 15.6%; SE = 0.052; t = 2.99). Covariate balance was achieved post-matching, with mean bias reduced from 20.5% to 0.7%, and the B statistic falling from 50.4% to 2.5% (below the 25% threshold). All standardized differences were substantially reduced, with education showing perfect balance (100% reduction) and wealth showing 97.6% reduction. Conclusion: HIV self-testing significantly increases recent HIV testing among women of reproductive age in Uganda. Expanding access to HIVST, particularly for women with lower education, those in poorer wealth quintiles, and those without media exposure, could improve testing frequency and support progress toward the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets.

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Treating earlier, spending less: cost-effectiveness and budget impact of immediate versus delayed antiretroviral therapy for HIV in Japan

Taniguchi, T.; Imahashi, M.; Sato, D.; Noda, T.

2026-08-26 hiv aids 10.64898/2026.08.23.26361165 medRxiv
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Background. In Japan, lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) is funded through the physical disability (immune dysfunction) certification pathway, which requires two laboratory assessments four weeks or more apart. This statutory pathway, rather than clinical need, contributes to a median diagnosis-to-ART interval of about 42 days. We evaluated relaxing or reforming it to permit immediate ART. Methods. We developed a stochastic individual-based microsimulation of HIV in Japan, linked to a payer-perspective cost-effectiveness analysis over a 40-year horizon after a 20-year burn-in, calibrated to national surveillance and cascade data. We compared immediate ART with one-month (primary) and two-month (secondary) delays. Costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were discounted at 2% per year; uncertainty was assessed across 200 seeds and by probabilistic and one-way sensitivity analyses. Findings. Against the one-month delay, immediate ART averted 2,991 infections and 1,761 deaths among people with HIV over 40 years, gained 9,071 QALYs, and reduced discounted costs by JPY 54.4 billion (net monetary benefit JPY 99.7 billion). The two-month comparison saved JPY 82.5 billion (4,535 infections, 2,688 deaths averted). Immediate ART was dominant at the base case and in all 1,000 probabilistic sensitivity-analysis iterations; cumulative savings offset the early investment within 11 to 12 years, and sensitivity analyses altered only its magnitude. Interpretation. Permitting immediate ART by reforming the certification pathway was projected to reduce HIV incidence, improve population health, and save public-payer costs within the second decade, supporting consideration of statutory reform.

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One test is enough: Japan's two-test rule for HIV treatment subsidies delays antiretroviral therapy without changing eligibility

Taniguchi, T.; Muramatsu, T.; Minami, R.; Nakamura, H.; Adachi, E.; Sekiya, R.; Fukushima, K.; Imamura, J.; Yoshino, Y.; Shirano, M.; Hirai, Y.; Imahashi, M.

2026-09-29 hiv aids 10.64898/2026.09.28.26364228 medRxiv
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Introduction: Japan achieves high retention and viral suppression among people on antiretroviral therapy, yet treatment starts late. Most people obtain subsidised treatment through a physical disability certificate for HIV-related immune dysfunction, which requires two blood tests at least four weeks apart. We quantified the diagnosis-to-treatment cascade, identified who waits and tested whether the second test changes certification. Methods: Retrospective cohort of people newly diagnosed with HIV at 11 designated AIDS core hospitals in 2015 to 2024. We measured intervals from screening to hospital visit and to antiretroviral therapy, and emulated certification from the first test alone and from the two-test rule under every possible number of non-laboratory criteria (k = 0 to 8). Results: Of 1302 people (96% men; 68% with CD4 <350 cells/L or AIDS), 1036 (80%) followed the two-test pathway and 261 started treatment after one test, mostly because of AIDS or acute infection. People reached the hospital a median of 11 days after screening. Treatment then began a median of 70 days after the first visit in the two-test pathway and 11 days in the single-test pathway; 0.2% and 60.9% started within 14 days. Delay rose with CD4 count: 46 days when the mean count was [&le;]200 cells/L, 117 days when it was >500 with a laboratory criterion (16% of the two-test pathway) and 334 days when it was >500 without one (3%; adjusted hazard ratio 0.14, 95% confidence interval 0.09 to 0.23). Medians ranged from 35 to 96 days across facilities. The second test changed little: the first CD4 count agreed with the mean of two (intraclass correlation coefficient 0.959), HIV-RNA [&ge;]5000 copies/mL persisted in 97.6%, and certification status agreed in 99.0% for k [&ge;]1 (92.5% for k = 0), with discordance concentrated near 500 cells/L; the first test gave a milder grade in at most 2.9%. Conclusions: The statutory second test adds at least four weeks before antiretroviral therapy in Japan without changing who is certified, and delays most the people with the highest CD4 counts. Certification on a single test, with treatment separated from the subsidy procedure, would remove a delay that has no clinical or administrative justification.

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When Cuts Cost More: Projected Fiscal Impact of Eliminating the AIDS Drug Assistance Program in 30 US States

Forster, R. M.; Schnure, M.; Balasubramanian, R.; Jones, J. L.; Hyle, E. P.; Batey, S.; Althoff, K. N.; Gebo, K.; Dowdy, D.; Shah, M.; Fojo, A. T.; Kasaie, P.

2026-07-28 health economics 10.64898/2026.07.27.26359045 medRxiv
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Across 30 US states and the District of Columbia, eliminating the AIDS Drug Assistance Program is projected to save $6.45 billion in direct costs while generating $14.89 billion in downstream HIV care costs attributable to excess incident infections from 2026-2035. Costs are projected to surpass savings within six years.

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Depressive symptoms and viral load suppression among adolescents and youth living with HIV in Malawi: a cross-sectional analysis of MPHIA 2020-2021

Ndhlovu, G.; de Voux, A.

2026-10-06 hiv aids 10.64898/2026.10.05.26364733 medRxiv
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Background Viral load suppression (VLS) remains suboptimal among adolescents and youth living with HIV (AYLWH) in Malawi. Depressive symptoms may affect treatment adherence and HIV outcomes, but evidence is limited. We assessed the association between depressive symptoms and VLS among AYLWH using Malawi Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (MPHIA) 2020-2021 data. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional secondary analysis of AYLWH aged 15-24 years. VLS was defined as HIV RNA less than 200 copies/mL and depressive symptoms as a Patient Health Questionnaire-2 score of 3 or higher. Survey-weighted logistic regression assessed associations with VLS, adjusting for sex, education, residence, household wealth, alcohol use, Teen Club participation, and awareness of HIV-positive status. Findings Among 201 participants, viral-load results were available for 200; 137 (68.5%) achieved VLS. Six (3.0%) participants had depressive symptoms. Depressive symptoms were not associated with VLS in univariable analysis (OR 0.8, 95% CI 0.1-4.6; p=0.80) or multivariable analysis (aOR 0.3, 95% CI 0.1-2.4; p=0.28). Urban residence (aOR 0.2, 95% CI 0.1-0.5; p=0.0020) and unawareness of HIV-positive status (aOR 0.1, 95% CI 0.02-0.1; p<0.001) were associated with lower odds of VLS. Interpretation Depressive symptoms were not significantly associated with VLS, although their low prevalence and PHQ-2 limitations reduced precision. The findings highlight the importance of strengthening HIV-status awareness and addressing context-specific barriers to care among AYLWH. Funding This secondary analysis received no specific funding.

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Assessing the Competing Risks of Loss to Follow-up and Mortality Among Adults Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy in Northern Ghana: Application of the Fine-Gray Subdistribution Hazard Model

Abo, S. C.; Abdulai, M. Y.; Bavug, B. T.

2026-10-20 hiv aids 10.64898/2026.10.15.26365612 medRxiv
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Retention in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes remains a major public health challenge in HIV care, with loss to follow-up (LTFU) and death threatening treatment success. Because these outcomes are competing events, conventional survival methods may yield biased estimates of their incidence and associated risk factors. To estimate the cumulative incidence of LTFU and mortality and identify factors associated with these outcomes among adults receiving ART in Northern Ghana using a competing-risks framework. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 329 adults living with HIV who initiated ART at Nalerigu Baptist Medical Centre, Ghana, between January 2013 and December 2019. Fine--Gray subdistribution hazard models were used to evaluate predictors of LTFU and death while accounting for competing risks. Cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models were fitted as a sensitivity analysis. The incidence rates were 2.2 per 100 person-months (95% CI: 1.9--2.6) for LTFU and 0.74 per 100 person-months (95% CI: 0.57--0.98) for death. At 36 months, the cumulative incidence was 50.2% for LTFU and 16.0% for death. Patients residing closer to the clinic had a lower cumulative incidence of LTFU than those living farther away (SHR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.49--0.93), whereas higher baseline weight was associated with increased LTFU (SHR = 1.02 per kg, 95% CI: 1.00--1.04). Mortality was lower among patients receiving efavirenz-based regimens (SHR = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.15--0.50), females (SHR = 0.39, 95% CI: 0.18--0.85), and those with higher baseline weight (SHR = 0.93 per kg, 95% CI: 0.90--0.96). Findings were broadly consistent in cause-specific Cox models. LTFU was substantially more frequent than mortality among adults receiving ART in Northern Ghana. Travel distance to the treatment facility was an important barrier to retention, while ART regimen, sex, and baseline weight were associated with mortality. Expanding access to ART services through decentralized and community-based models may improve retention and support efforts to achieve HIV control targets.

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Plasma metabolomics reveals lipid-predominant metabolic disruptions in virologically suppressed people with HIV

Basting, C. M.; Guerrero, C.; Escandon, K.; Anderson, J.; Wieking, G.; Swanson, E.; Schroeder, T.; Hemmila, C.; Cromarty, R. T.; Torres-Ruiz, F.; Soto-Nava, M.; Carvajal-Ruiz, L.; Ordaz-Candelario, K.; Briceno, O.; Funderburg, N.; Avila-Rios, S.; Graham, M. L.; Schacker, T. W.; Salgado Montes de Oca, G.; Klatt, N. R.

2026-08-20 microbiology 10.64898/2026.08.19.745653 medRxiv
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5.5%
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People with HIV (PWH) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) experience excess morbidity and mortality from comorbidities including cardiovascular and metabolic disease, yet the biological mechanisms underlying these outcomes in virally suppressed PWH (VS-PWH) remain incompletely understood. We applied high-dimensional targeted plasma metabolomics to quantify 254 small molecules and 750 lipids across 49 classes in viremic PWH (Vi-PWH), VS-PWH, and people without HIV (PWoH), analyzed alongside multiple T cell metrics and plasma cytokine concentrations. Globally, the plasma metabolome of VS-PWH was indistinguishable from PWoH, while Vi-PWH exhibited substantial metabolic disruption characterized by depletion of phosphatidylcholines, sphingomyelins, and hexosylceramides alongside triglyceride accumulation, dysregulation of the tryptophan-kynurenine and arginine-citrulline axes, and elevations in diacetylated polyamines and N4-acetylcytidine. Ordinal trend analysis identified subtle but consistent residual alterations in VS-PWH, particularly within phosphatidylcholine and sphingomyelin classes, that correlated with elevated TNF and reduced CD4+ T cell counts and CD4/CD8 ratio. Together, these findings indicate that residual TNF-associated inflammation and incomplete T cell recovery continue to shape the plasma metabolome in treated HIV, identifying candidate biomarkers for further mechanistic and clinical investigation.

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Universal HIV screening: perspectives from Eastern Romania

Barbosu, C. M.; Manciuc, C. D.; Dye, T.

2026-08-23 hiv aids 10.64898/2026.08.19.26360868 medRxiv
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HIV/AIDS remains a major global public health challenge, and disparities in HIV testing persist. In 2024, an estimated 87% of people living with HIV were aware of their status, with lower testing coverage among children aged 0-14 years (63%), and among men (84%) compared with women (92%). Romania initiated its national AIDS program in 1995 and quickly progressed in addressing the epidemic; however, HIV testing remains largely concentrated in specialized services, with late diagnosis, missed testing opportunities, and stigma continuing to limit timely identification and linkage to care. This study aimed to understand better HIV testing/screening practices among clinicians in eastern Romania and to identify gaps that could be addressed through medical education. We conducted an analytical cross-sectional study among healthcare providers in the eastern region of Romania to assess whether HIV testing is routinely offered to patients, explore gaps in clinical judgment and perceived responsibility, and identify factors that facilitate HIV testing. A 17-question anonymous survey was distributed via WhatsApp to clinician groups between August 1 and September 30, 2023. Respondents included physicians (71.9%), nurses (28.1%), and other healthcare professionals, working in infectious diseases (36.0%), internal medicine (22.3%), primary care (13.7%), and other specialties, such as obstetrics-gynecology and pediatrics (18.0%). Only 38.1% of respondents reported routinely screening all patients aged 18 years and older for HIV, while 61.9% did not offer regular HIV testing. The most cited reasons for not screening were the perception that HIV testing was not their responsibility and that their department did not require testing (18.1% each). Clinicians working in settings with established policies on HIV confidentiality, non-discrimination, testing, and post-exposure prophylaxis were more likely to offer routine testing. Universal HIV screening remains uncommon among clinicians in eastern Romania. Supportive institutional policies appear to facilitate routine testing and may reduce missed opportunities for early diagnosis. Normalizing HIV testing as part of routine clinical care, in line with the Romanian National Health Strategy 2022-2030, is crucial for enhancing early detection and strengthening prevention efforts through coordinated action among clinicians, public institutions, and civil society.

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Cognitive and Motor Impairment Patterns among HIV+ Adults with and without Stroke in Botswana: Implications for Neurorehabilitation

Johnson, M. J.; Mendonca, R. J.; Shofer, F. S.; Mogorosi, N.; Goitsemang, N.; Bothomilwe, L.; Ocampo-Ilagan, C. C.; Tsima, B.; Nthitu, J. M.; Mbakile-Mahlanza, L.; Kebaetse, M. B.

2026-10-09 hiv aids 10.64898/2026.10.07.26364959 medRxiv
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Background: HIV and stroke are major contributors to disability in sub-Saharan Africa, yet their combined impact on cognitive and motor functioning remains poorly understood. Botswana has a high prevalence of HIV and rising stroke incidence, underscoring the need to characterize impairment to inform neurorehabilitation. Objective: To examine differences in cognitive performance, motor function, and activities of daily living between adults living with HIV only and those living with both HIV and stroke in Botswana. Methods: Thirty-three adults (19 HIV only; 14 HIV/ stroke) completed standardized cognitive (e.g. MoCA and Digit Symbol Coding [DSC]), and motor assessments (such as Box and Block Test [BBT], Grooved Pegboard [GPB], Grip Strength [GS], 10-Meter Walk Test [10MWT], Timed Up and Go [TUG]), and ADL measures (such as Barthel Index, Lawton IADL). Group comparisons used Wilcoxon rank-sum tests. Impairment was determined using both international z-score norms and Botswana-specific cutoffs from a prior cohort study. Results: Cognitive impairment was evident in both groups, but DSC z-scores were worse in the HIV/stroke vs HIV only group (median= -2.71 vs -1.34, p=0.015). Gross motor function showed deficits in the HIV/stroke group, including lower dominant-hand BBT performance (median z-score -2.79 vs. -1.75; p=0.008). Fine motor dexterity was markedly reduced in the HIV/stroke group, with GPB dominant-hand median z-scores of -4.26 vs. -1.40 (p=0.038) and non-dominant-hand impairment rates of 100% vs. 63.2% (p=0.043). Non-dominant GS was weaker in the HIV/stroke group (100% impaired vs. 47.4%; p=0.0014). Lower-limb performance was substantially worse, including TUG (median z-score -3.63 vs. 0.10; p=0.0001) and 10MWT (median z-score -5.36 vs. -2.47; p=0.0025). ADL scores were also lower in the HIV/stroke group compared to both Barthel and Lawton (p=0.002). Conclusions: HIV alone is associated with cognitive and motor impairment, with the addition of stroke producing significantly greater deficits across all motor domains. These findings demonstrate the need to integrate structured neurorehabilitation into HIV clinical care in Botswana.

19
Relative fertility of HIV-positive women in the ART era: updated estimates from national household survey data

Imai-Eaton, J. W. W.; Glaubius, R.; Mahy, M.; Johnson, L. F.; Stover, J.; Marston, M.

2026-08-12 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.11.26360197 medRxiv
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Objectives: Estimate fertility rate ratios (FRR) of HIV-positive relative to HIV-negative women in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) by age group, CD4 stage, ART status, and country. Design: Analysis of nationally representative household surveys with HIV serological testing. Methods: We analysed current pregnancy and births in the past three years by HIV status from 72 nationally-representative household surveys in SSA between 2003 and 2017. Spectrum 2018 estimates for the distribution by CD4 stage and ART status were used to infer fertility of women on ART from changes in fertility of all HIV-positive women as ART coverage increased. We allowed regional differences in the age pattern of relative fertility and estimated country-specific random effects. Results: The ratio of fertility in untreated HIV-positive women with CD4 [&ge;]500 to HIV-negative women was 1.6 to 1.8 for age 15-19, relatively similar to 10% times lower for age 20-29, and 15-50% lower above age 30. Among age 15-19, each 15-point increase in percent sexually active reduced relative excess fertility by 24%. Fertility decreased with lower untreated CD4 count stages, consistent with previous estimates. Women on ART >6 months had fertility closer to that of HIV-negative women for ages 15-29, but still 25-40% lower above age 30. There was substantial variation across countries. Conclusions: Fertility differences for HIV-positive women compared to HIV-negative women are smaller than previous estimates, but vary substantially across countries. Recent data suggest fertility of women on ART is greater than that of untreated HIV-positive women, but remains lower than HIV-negative women. This conclusion should be reviewed as new evidence becomes available.

20
A mechanistic basis for CD8+ T cell expansion sensitivity as a predictor of HIV post-treatment control

Phan, T.; Pagane, N.; Kreig, J. A. F.; Marc, A.; Locke, M.; Peluso, M. J.; Sandel, D. A.; Deitchman, A. N.; Rutishauser, R. L.; Deeks, S. G.; Ke, R.; Ribeiro, R. M.; Perelson, A. S.

2026-09-01 immunology 10.64898/2026.08.28.747758 medRxiv
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A key goal in HIV-1 cure research is to understand why some individuals control viral rebound after stopping antiretroviral therapy (ART). Recent human studies have identified responding CD8+ T cells expressing Ki-67 and the transcription factor TCF-1 as correlates of post-treatment control, but the mechanistic basis of this association remains unclear. Using the theoretical framework of Conway and Perelson, we fit mechanistic within-host models to viral load and CD8+ T cell data from 9 individuals in a combination immunotherapy trial following ART interruption. Although Ki-67 and TCF-1 measurements were not used for fitting, the inferred effector cell expansion sensitivity, i.e., the responsiveness of effector expansion to low antigen levels, shows a strong linear relationship with Ki-67 and TCF-1 levels at rebound (Pearsons r {approx} 0.8). Building on this, we show analytically that the post-rebound viral load set point is inversely proportional to the effector cell expansion sensitivity, and thus strongly correlates with cycling (Ki-67+) CD8+ T cells (r {approx} -0.8) at rebound, and a subset that expresses TCF-1 (r {approx} -0.9). In effect, individuals with a larger proportion of CD8+ T cells responding to viral rebound, and a greater representation of TCF-1 expressing cells within the responding subset, achieve markedly lower viral set points through a higher effector cell expansion sensitivity. This mechanism is consistent with prior modeling in a non-intervention ATI setting, suggesting it may generalize across more rebound contexts. Our results provide a mechanistic explanation why both Ki-67+ responding CD8+ T cells and their TCF-1-expressing subset predict post-treatment control, linking clinical correlation to its underlying cause and highlighting Ki-67 and TCF-1 as potential early biomarkers of HIV immunotherapy success.