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AIDS

Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match AIDS's content profile, based on 31 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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AIM-PrEP: AI-Agent Driven Multicenter Intervention to Improve PrEP Adherence and Health Monitoring Among Men Who Have Sex with Men (MSM)-Protocol of A Randomized Controlled Trial

Zeng, R.; Zuo, Z.; Yu, H.; Jin, Y.; Wang, Y.; Lv, H.; Wang, G.; Zhang, N.; He, H.; Huang, X.; Zhang, X.; Su, Q.; Xu, J.

2026-06-04 hiv aids 10.64898/2026.06.02.26354777 medRxiv
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Background: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has demonstrated a significant reduction in HIV infections among men who have sex with men (MSM), however, low medication adherence hinders its preventative effectiveness. Traditional approaches, such as health education and face-to-face inquiry (HEF), have demonstrated certain efficacy in improving PrEP adherence. However, these methods are resource-intensive and often plagued by delays, rendering timely and precise interventions challenging. This randomized controlled trial aims to assess the effectiveness of an intervention comprising AI-chatbot for PrEP (PrEP-bot) and Smart pillbox (SPB) (PrEP-bot-SPB) strategy to improve PrEP adherence among MSM compared to HEF.Methods and analysis: A three-arm, multicenter, open-lable RCT will be conducted with Chinese MSM [≥]18 years. A total of 300 participants will be recruited through three sources, including hospitals, community-based organizations (CBOs) and peer referral in five cities: Shenzhen, Beijing, Qingdao, Hangzhou and Zhengzhou. After completing baseline survey, participants will be randomized evenly into interventions or control groups: the PrEP-bot group, the PrEP-bot-SPB group, and the HEF control group. Participants in the PrEP-bot group will be granted access to an AI-chatbot agent through WeChat. This agent will: 1) generate personalized PrEP medication plans; 2) provide medication reminders and PrEP-related health check-ups notifications; 3) inquire about missed doses to deliver tailored interventions; 4) answer participant questions about PrEP using guideline-based knowledge. Participants in the PrEP-bot-SPB group will receive both the SPB and the PrEP-bot interventions. SPB could delivers medication reminders. Participants in HEF group will receive a health education pamphlet introducing PrEP and knowledge related to PrEP medication adherence at baseline and face-to-face inquiry every three months. Outcomes will be assessed for both short-term and medium-to-long-term effects. The primary objective is the effectiveness in improving PrEP adherence measured by self-report, Eight-Item Morisky medication adherence scale (MMAS-8) and concentration of Tenofovir in dried blood spots (DBS) (PrEP adherence [≥]90%) at 3 months follow-up. Secondary outcomes include: 1) effectiveness in preventing HIV infection measured by HIV-self test (HIVST); 2) effectiveness of PrEP-related health check-ups; 3) the effectiveness, feasibility, acceptability, and user satisfaction with the PrEP-bot; 4) effectiveness in improving PrEP adherence at 6-month, 9-month and 12-month follow-up periods. All participants will receive quarterly follow-up visits during the 12-month study period. Intention-to-treat analysis and per protocol set (PPS) analysis will be used.Results: Recruitment and enrollment of participants began in January 2026 and is currently ongoing.Discussion: This study is expected to establish a novel AI-based intervention model for PrEP, providing innovative strategies for HIV control among MSM populations. If the PrEP-bot is proven non-inferior to HEF, it could offer users real-time, precise, and personalized interventions while simultaneously addressing PrEP-related inquiries and health check-ups reminders. Importantly, this approach would achieve significant reductions in resource requirements for implementation and maintenance and be more cost-effective. With the ongoing advancement of AI technologies, PrEP-bot holds substantial promise for widespread implementation in PrEP adherence, potentially revolutionizing HIV prevention for MSM in China through this innovative intervention modality.Trial registration: ChiCTR2500111280 (Chinese Clinical Trial Registry). Date of registration: 29 October 2025.

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Ultra-low-field MRI as a tool for measuring brain development in at-risk children in LMICS: feasibility, validity and clinical relevance.

Bradford, L. E.; Ringshaw, J. E.; Malaba, T. R.; Bourke, N. J.; Wedderburn, C. J.; Williams, S. C.; Deoni, S.; Reynolds, H.; Read, J.; Read, L.; Waitt, C.; Mrubata, M.; Stemmet, L.-A.; Davel, L.; Colbers, A.; Wang, D.; Khoo, S.; Myer, L.; Donald, K. A.

2026-06-05 hiv aids 10.64898/2026.06.02.26354785 medRxiv
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Background Children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) face an elevated risk of developmental delay, yet scalable neuroimaging tools to study early brain development in these contexts remain limited. Children who are HIV-exposed but uninfected (CHEU) represent a growing population with evidence of language and motor delays and altered brain development compared with children who are HIV-unexposed (CHU). Ultra-low-field (ULF) MRI offers a more affordable alternative to conventional high-field (HF) MRI, but its application in early childhood remains underexplored. Methods We compared brain volumes derived from ULF (64mT) and HF (3T) MRI in South African CHEU and CHU as part of the DolPHIN-2 PLUS study. Volumetric segmentation was performed using FreeSurfer v7.4.1 and SynthSeg on the Flywheel platform. Agreement between modalities was assessed using Pearsons and Lins concordance correlation coefficients across global and subcortical regions. Associations between ULF-derived brain volumes and developmental outcomes, measured by the Bayley Scales of Infant Development, Third Edition, were evaluated using partial correlations adjusted for sex and age. Results Forty-five children (9 CHEU, 36 CHU; mean age 45.6 months) had paired ULF and HF scans of usable quality. Strong correlations were observed between ULF and HF volumes for global white and grey matter regions (r > 0.92) and larger subcortical grey matter structures such as the thalamus, caudate, and putamen (r = 0.86-0.89). Moderate-to-weak correlations were evident in smaller structures (hippocampus, pallidum, amygdala). ULF underestimated most grey matter volumes, and overestimated total white matter volume relative to HF. ULF-derived global and subcortical volumes were associated with receptive and expressive communication (r = 0.34-0.59, all p < 0.05). Conclusions ULF MRI produces brain volume estimates comparable to HF MRI and captures meaningful associations with early language development. These findings support ULF MRI as a feasible and scalable tool for studying neurodevelopment in vulnerable paediatric populations in LMICs.

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Structural Cardiac Abnormalities, Ventricular Dysfunction Phenotypes, and Heart Failure Risk among Antiretroviral Therapy-treated People Living with HIV in South Africa

Omar, Z.; PHIZA Study Team, ; Ahmed, A. A.; Wolfson, J.; Huang, Z.; Mgidlana, M.; Black, A.; Abd El Hadi, M.; Aremu, O. O.; Peterson, T. E.; Ntusi, N. A. B.; Meintjes, G.; Ntsekhe, M.; Baker, J. V.

2026-06-08 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.06.04.26354960 medRxiv
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Background: The manifestations of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among people with HIV (PWH) differ by region globally. While HIV disease is associated with increased atherosclerotic CVD risk in the global North, non-ischemic heart failure (HF) is more common in sub-Saharan Africa, the global HIV epicenter. We estimated the effect of treated HIV on the frequency and phenotype of HF and its cardiac precursors in South Africa (SA). Methods: In an observational study, we recruited PWH on antiretroviral therapy (ART), age [&ge;]40 years and people without HIV (PWoH) with similar distributions of age, sex, ethnicity, and hypertension, from a community clinic in Khayelitsha (Cape Town, SA). Procedures included a clinical assessment, echocardiography (Echo), and b-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) measure. Echo parameters defined structural abnormalities, left ventricle (LV) filling pressure, and LV systolic and diastolic dysfunction (DD). HF was defined by symptoms and/or BNP [&ge;]35pg/mL and LV dysfunction, subcategorized as reduced, mildly reduced, or preserved ejection fraction (HFrEF, HFmrEF, and HFpEF). Comparisons by HIV status were adjusted for age, sex, hypertension, smoking, obesity, diabetes, elevated LDL-cholesterol, and hazardous alcohol use. Results: Between September 2022 and August 2025, we enrolled 1008 PWH and 500 controls [median (Q1-Q3) age 48 years (43-53), 77% female]. Among PWH and controls respectively, 37% and 39% had hypertension, 21% and 25% were current smokers, 40% and 45% were obese, and 9% and 17% had diabetes. LV systolic dysfunction (1%) and HFrEF (1%) were rare, and undiagnosed HFpEF (8%) was the predominant HF phenotype. Compared to controls, PWH had higher odds of elevated LV mass index (LVMI) (OR 2.1; 95%CI 1.5-3.0) and DD (OR 1.4; 95%CI 1.0-2.0). Risk for elevated LVMI and DD was greatest among women with HIV, who also had an increased risk for undiagnosed HFpEF (OR 1.9; 95%CI 1.2-3.2), compared to women without HIV; effects which were not seen among men (p=0.051 for HIV*Sex interaction). Conclusions: In a peri-urban SA community with a high burden of cardiometabolic risk factors, the frequency of abnormal structural and functional cardiac precursors of HFpEF was greater amongst ART-treated PWH. This was most pronounced amongst women with HIV, who also had increased risk of undiagnosed HFpEF.

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Impact of Early Treatment on Symptom Improvement and Procedural Events among Men with BPH and Bothersome Lower Urinary Tract Symptoms: A Contemporary Analysis of the American Urological Association Quality (AQUA) Registry

Ernandez, J.; Najafi, A.; Roehrborn, C. G.; Lerner, L. B.

2026-06-10 urology 10.64898/2026.06.08.26355194 medRxiv
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PURPOSE: As the armamentarium of BPH therapies continues to expand, it remains imperative to maximize patient satisfaction and minimize decisional regret. We sought to determine the impact of time from BPH diagnosis to index treatment on symptom improvement and subsequent procedural events. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We queried the American Urological Association Quality Registry for men [&ge;] 40 years old with BPH, available IPSS data, and no receipt of prior BPH treatment. Index treatment included medication, surgery, or minimally invasive surgical therapy (MIST). Outcomes included IPSS over 3 years of follow-up, change in percentage of mild lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) by 3 months, and time to procedural event. Patients were stratified by time from index diagnosis to treatment by <12 months, 1-3 years, and >3 years. Outcomes were compared across time-to-treatment cohorts with appropriate statistical tests with p < 0.05 as significant. RESULTS: 43,919 patients met criteria with 19,642 pursuing treatments. Patients pursued treatment at comparably lower baseline IPSS compared to prior prospective series. Patients undergoing surgery and MIST had significantly higher baseline IPSS, while medical comorbidities were significantly more common among men initiating pharmacotherapy. Early surgery and MIST were associated with significant improvement in IPSS within 6-12 months and an increase in mild LUTS by 3 months. All forms of early treatment were associated with delayed time to procedural events, including catheterization and fulguration. CONCLUSIONS: Early procedural intervention for BPH is associated with early symptom improvement and delayed time to procedural events among real-world, contemporary practice.

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How nurses spend their time: nurses' experiences and time use for providing HIV treatment under conventional and differentiated service delivery models in South Africa

Lekodeba, N. A.; Pascoe, S. J. S.; Huber, A. N.; Ngcobo, N.; Morgan, A. J.; Ntjikelane, V.; Marri, A. R.; Sande, L.; Shumba, K.; Mokhele, I.; Nichols, B. E.; Jamieson, L.; Rosen, S.

2026-06-08 hiv aids 10.64898/2026.06.06.26355033 medRxiv
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Introduction: Differentiated service delivery (DSD) models aim to reduce time healthcare providers spend with DSD clients, increasing time available for non-DSD clients. We measured nurses' time allocation and explored their experiences with DSD models in South Africa. Methods: We conducted time and motion observations and surveyed nurses at 24 public primary healthcare facilities across two SENTINEL study rounds (09/2022-07/2023 and 11/2023-07/2024). We report median time nurses spent by activity, model of care, and interaction type. Log binomial regression investigated factors associated with high direct nurse-client interaction (above median minutes) and extended work-days ([&ge;]9 hours), and estimated adjusted risk ratios (aRR). Survey questions were related to client care, additional time availability, and policy changes post DSD implementation, with key themes presented alongside illustrative quotes. Results: 176 nurses (88% female, median age 44) were observed for 344 working days; of these, 60 (34%) participated in the provider survey. Nurses spent a median of 293 minutes (53% of their work-day) on direct nurse-client interaction, 89 minutes (22%) on client-support or facility-related tasks, and the remainder on other activities including personal breaks. Time spent per client was similar across conventional care clients (11 [IQR: 8-15] minutes) but ranged between 9 (7-13) to 11 (8-15) minutes for DSD clients; number of direct nurse-client interactions did not differ meaningfully. Nurses at facilities with 2,000-3,999 total remaining on ART (TROA) (aRR 1.56, 95% CI: 1.02-2.37) and in urban areas (aRR 1.43, [1.08-1.89]) had more direct nurse-client interactions than those at facilities with <1,999 TROA and in rural areas, respectively. Nurses at facilities with 4,000+ TROA (aRR 2.22, [1.36-3.63]) and those observed in SENTINEL 3.0 (aRR 1.53, [1.13-2.07]) were more likely to work standard or longer workdays than those at lower TROA facilities (<1,999), those in SENTINEL 2.0 and urban areas. Nurses reported DSD models improved client care (90%), freed up time (60%), and changed clinic procedures and policies (60%). Conclusions: While DSD models did not significantly reduce direct nurse-client interaction time, nurses reported improved client care and gained additional time. DSD impact may vary by facility context. As DSD implementation expands, effective time reallocation may enhance facility performance and provider productivity.

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Estimating gender disparities in surgical sterilization uptake in India in 2019-20 and cost savings from equity achievement

Mande, S. u.; Arora, A.; Sharma, P.; Passi, V. R.; Afsar, A.; Nakray, K.; Baxy, H.; Zadey, S.

2026-06-08 obstetrics and gynecology 10.64898/2026.06.05.26354923 medRxiv
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Background: Qualitative studies have noted that the burden of family planning disproportionately falls on women in India. Our primary objective was to quantify the gender disparity in the uptake of surgical sterilizations. Our secondary objectives were to calculate the costs of tubectomies and vasectomies in India and to estimate the savings of scaling up vasectomy rates. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis using data on the total number of tubectomies and vasectomies performed, postoperative failure, and postoperative mortality due to these procedures, obtained from the Health Management Information System (HMIS) for 2019-20. We calculated the vasectomy (tubectomy) operative rates per 10,000 men (women) of reproductive age (15-49 years). The women-to-men ratio of these rates is used as a proxy for sex-based disparities in uptake. State-specific procedure costs and compensation for failures and postoperative deaths at public hospitals were extracted and aggregated from government data and research studies. To estimate the financial benefit of scaling up vasectomies, the cost of increasing the vasectomy rate to 50% of the total sterilization rate was calculated. All costs were adjusted for inflation to 2022 and presented in United States Dollars (USD). Findings: In 2019-20, the national tubectomy rate was 96.5, the vasectomy rate was 1.4, and the resulting women-to-men rate ratio was 67.5. The cost per tubectomy procedure was 3.5 times that of vasectomy (89.1 USD vs. 25.3 USD). Keeping the overall operative rate constant, the net savings from scaling up vasectomies to at least 50% of total operations (replacing excess tubectomies) range from 62,193,487 to 75,355,777 USD. Interpretation: Our pan-India analysis confirms that the use of surgical family planning methods is disproportionately higher among women. Scaling up vasectomies has finacial benefits and can improve gender equity. Funding: None.

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Dementia and Frailty Impact Postoperative Care Trajectories and Burden among Older Adults Undergoing Radical Cystectomy for Bladder Cancer

Ernandez, J.; Xiang, L.; Adler, R.; Hsu, J.; Shah, S. K.; Kim, D.; Gershman, B.; Mossanen, M.; Weissman, J. S.

2026-06-06 urology 10.64898/2026.06.04.26354768 medRxiv
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OBJECTIVE: Bladder cancer (BC) is predominantly a disease of older, comorbid adults, and radical cystectomy (RC), which is the gold standard treatment, carries considerable morbidity. We sought to determine the impact of baseline dementia and frailty on the care trajectory beyond the immediate postoperative period. We hypothesized that frail patients and those with dementia undergoing RC for BC will have poorer care trajectories. METHODS AND MATERIALS: We identified Medicare beneficiaries [&ge;] 66 years old who underwent RC for BC in 2017 with 12 months of pre- and post-RC enrollment. Frailty and dementia were characterized using validated, claims-based measures. Associations between baseline frailty and dementia with postoperative care trajectory outcomes were determined using Fine-Gray competing risk models. RESULTS: We identified 3,600 beneficiaries of whom 11.6% were frail and 3.4% met criteria for dementia. Patients with dementia were more likely to be frail, comorbid, and not receive standard-of-care neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Frailty was independently associated with [&ge;] 2 transitions in care level after index discharge from RC and skilled nursing facility (SNF) admissions within 1 year of RC, exposure to intensive post-RC interventions, including dialysis and feeding tube placement, and poorer survival. Dementia remained associated with SNF admissions regardless of frailty level. CONCLUSIONS: Among a contemporary cohort of older adults undergoing RC for BC, preoperative dementia and frailty were independently associated with poorer care trajectory beyond the immediate postoperative period after RC. Our work highlights a role for preoperative geriatric assessment in identifying and optimizing patients at greatest risk.

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Snip Happens: A Retrospective Study of Vasectomy and Birth rates in Australia

Janetzki, J.; Modi, N.; Varney, B.; Pratt, N.; Ward, M.; Wiese, M.; Lim, R.; Kalisch Ellett, L.

2026-06-05 sexual and reproductive health 10.64898/2026.06.03.26354864 medRxiv
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Background Fertility rates in Australia have been declining over recent decades, reaching a record low total fertility rate of 1.48 births per woman in 2024. Concurrently, vasectomy remains widely accessible and increasingly normalised as a permanent contraceptive option. Despite extensive commentary on falling birth rates, no contemporary Australian study has examined vasectomy rates relative to birth rates over time. We aimed to compare population level vasectomy and birth rates across Australian jurisdictions and age groups. Study design Nationwide retrospective time-series study. Retrospective population-based study using Medicare Benefits Schedule item 37623 to identify vasectomy procedures performed between July 2015 and December 2024. Rates were calculated per 100,000 male population using quarterly Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population estimates and summarised as rolling 12-month averages. Birth rates were derived using matched ABS data for women across equivalent age strata (18-24, 25-34, 35-44 years). Results: Vasectomy rates increased nationally from 32 per 100,000 in 2016 to 55 per 100,000 in 2023 before declining modestly in 2024. Birth rates declined from 5,200 to 3,800 per 100,000 over the same period. Trends were consistent across states and age groups, with the greatest vasectomy uptake in men aged 35-44 years. Conclusion: Australia is undergoing a demographic shift characterised by rising vasectomy uptake and declining fertility. While vasectomy rates remain lower than birth rates, their convergence signals changing reproductive intentions and contraceptive behaviours. Ongoing monitoring of permanent and long-acting contraception is essential to understand evolving population dynamics and inform reproductive health policy.

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A wealth index based on two-component polychoric principal component analysis reduces urban bias and improves socioeconomic classification in low- and middle-income country surveys: a validation study using LSMS surveys

Vidaletti, L. P.; Dos Santos, A. M.; Hellwig, F.; Barros, A. J. D.

2026-06-08 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.01.26354245 medRxiv
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Background: The traditional wealth index, based on principal component analysis (PCA), used in the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS), suffers from urban bias, distorting estimates of health inequality. We compared the traditional index (PEAR1) with an alternative two-component polychoric PCA index (POLY2) using annual expenditure from 12 LSMS surveys as the gold standard to determine which provides more accurate SEP measures for equitable policy targeting. Methods: We compared the traditional wealth index (PEAR1) with a two-component polychoric PCA approach (POLY2) using 12 LSMS (Living Standards Measurement Study) surveys (2015-2022) from 12 African countries. Annual household consumption expenditure was the gold standard. We assessed agreement using weighted Cohen's kappa and validated against education (proportion of households with secondary or higher education) using the concentration index (CIX) and slope index of inequality (SII). Results: The POLY2 index showed higher agreement with expenditure quintiles (average national weighted kappa = 43.3%) than the PEAR1 index (35.1%), with notable improvements in urban (43.5% vs. 27.5%) and rural (35.3% vs. 22.4%) areas. POLY2 also attenuated extreme household distributions observed in PEAR1. Education validation showed that POLY2 produced intermediate inequality gradients between the flatter expenditure-based gradient and the steeper PEAR1-based gradient. Conclusion: The POLY2 wealth index is superior to the traditional index, reducing urban-rural bias and providing more accurate socioeconomic classifications. Its adoption in large-scale surveys such as DHS and MICS is recommended to improve equitable monitoring of health inequalities in low- and middle-income countries.

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Burden of Chronic Kidney Disease in China, 1990-2021: Findings from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study

Wang, M.; Zhao, T.; Wang, H.; Hou, S.; Fu, Y.

2026-06-09 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.06.26355056 medRxiv
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Introduction: To investigate the epidemiological characteristics of chronic kidney diseases (CKD) in China in 2021 and its trends between 1990 and 2021, in the context of significant population growth and lifestyle changes over the past 30 years that have likely influenced the CKD spectrum. Methods: Data on CKD prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), and risk factors were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The estimated decadal percentage changes were calculated to evaluate changes in trends in prevalence, mortality and disease burden. Results: In 2021, an estimated 118.4 (95% UI 109.4 to 127.5) million people in China were affected by CKD, contributing to 204 230 (95% UI 164 736 to 246 372) deaths and 6.13 (95% UI 5.18 to 7.21) million DALY. Although CKD due to diabetes mellitus and hypertension accounted for less than a quarter of all cases, they were responsible for over 90% of CKD-related deaths. Over the past three decades, CKD mortality and DALY rates have steadily increased, although the prevalence has stabilized in the last decade. Diabetes mellitus type 2 and hypertension have emerged as key drivers of CKD burden in China. Conclusions: The CKD burden in China shows a dual pattern of rising incidence and high mortality from diabetes and hypertension-related chronic kidney disease, alongside persistently high years lived with disability from glomerulonephritis and other causes.

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Cardiovascular Outcomes with GLP-1 Receptor Agonists in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes or Obesity Undergoing Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement

Lum, J.; Jordan, A.; Knigh, P.; Hisamoto, K.

2026-06-04 surgery 10.64898/2026.06.02.26354773 medRxiv
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Abstract Background: Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) have demonstrated cardiovascular benefit in type 2 diabetes and obesity, with recent observational data suggesting favorable associations after transcatheter aortic valve replacement. Whether similar associations exist after surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) is unknown. Methods: Retrospective propensity-matched cohort analysis using the TriNetX U.S. Collaborative Network. Adults with type 2 diabetes or obesity (BMI [&ge;]30 kg/m2) undergoing SAVR were categorized by GLP-1 RA exposure (any use within 3 months before through 1 year after SAVR) versus no use. One-to-one matching was performed on 44 covariates. Primary outcomes were 1-year all-cause mortality, heart failure, acute kidney injury, acute myocardial infarction, cerebral infarction, and atrial fibrillation. Sensitivity analyses included 30-day landmark restriction and falsification outcomes. Results: After matching, 1,984 patients were retained per cohort. GLP-1 RA use was associated with lower 1-year risks of all-cause mortality (4.8% vs 10.4%; HR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.34-0.56), acute kidney injury (6.9% vs 10.1%; HR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.49-0.85), myocardial infarction (3.0% vs 5.1%; HR, 0.57; 95% CI, (0.40-0.82), heart failure (11.3% vs 15.7%; HR, 0.68; 95% CI, (0.51-0.90), and atrial fibrillation or flutter (10.1% vs 13.9%; HR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.54-0.90; all P[&le;]006). Cerebral infarction did not differ. In landmark analysis, mortality, heart failure, and acute kidney injury associations persisted; myocardial infarction and atrial fibrillation associations were attenuated. Falsification outcomes were null. Conclusions: Perioperative GLP-1 RA use was associated with lower 1-year cardiovascular event rates after SAVR. These hypothesis-generating findings support prospective randomized investigation.

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Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic Syndrome Among US Adults, 1999-2023: National Trends and Projections Through 2050

Fu, F.; Wei, A.; Wang, G.; Fang, S.; Chen, J.; Liu, W.; Liu, H.; Gao, X.; Lei, Y.; Guo, N.; Chen, M.; Yu, J.; Wang, Y.; Li, S.; Mao, Y.; Yan, L.

2026-06-10 health systems and quality improvement 10.64898/2026.06.08.26355220 medRxiv
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Background Cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome integrates adiposity, metabolic risk, kidney dysfunction, and cardiovascular disease in a prevention-oriented framework. National estimates across 1999-2023 NHANES and future burden remain limited. Methods We analyzed US adults aged 20 years from 11 NHANES cycles, 1999-2000 through August 2021-August 2023. CKM stage 0-4 was assigned using harmonized examination, laboratory, medication, and questionnaire data. Prevalence was survey-weighted and standardized to the 2010 US Census adult population. Decade trends used survey-weighted logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, and race and ethnicity. Exploratory 2040 and 2050 projections combined NHANES prevalence models with US Census projections under population-aging-only, trend-continuation, and risk-improvement scenarios. Results Among 62,890 eligible adults, 62,888 had sufficient CKM data. In 2021-2023, age-standardized prevalence was 87.9% (95% CI, 86.5%-89.4%) for CKM stage 1 and 62.0% (95% CI, 60.1%-63.8%) for stages 2-4. Stage 2 accounted for 50.1% (95% CI, 48.2%-51.9%) and stages 3-4 for 11.9% (95% CI, 11.0%-12.7%). From 1999-2000 to 2021-2023, any CKM increased by 4.6 percentage points (95% CI, 2.4 to 6.9; P<0.001), whereas stages 2-4 changed by 2.1 percentage points (95% CI, 5.1 to 0.8; P=0.156). In adjusted decade models, any CKM increased (OR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.19-1.38; P<0.001), while stages 2-4 showed no significant linear trend (OR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.89-1.01; P=0.084). Excess adiposity and diabetes increased, dyslipidemia declined, and hypertension, chronic kidney disease, and clinical cardiovascular disease were stable. With population aging alone, projected stages 2-4 burden rose from 164.8 million adults in 2023 to 193.7 million in 2050; under risk improvement, it was 147.7 million. Conclusions CKM syndrome remained highly prevalent among US adults. Although later stages did not increase significantly, population aging may expand the absolute care burden unless broad risk improvement occurs.

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Integrated cardiometabolic and nutritional risk profiling identifies pregnancy loss as a marker of systemic metabolic vulnerability

Agarwal, T.; Namburu, J. R.; Kachroo, P.

2026-06-08 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.04.26354910 medRxiv
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Background: Pregnancy loss has important implications for womens health. Although maternal age is a well-established risk factor, the contribution of routinely measured cardiometabolic and behavioral markers at population-scale remains incompletely characterized. Objective: To examine associations between cardiometabolic, nutritional, and behavioral risk markers and pregnancy loss among U.S. women of reproductive age. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 4,842 U.S. women aged 20-44 years with [&ge;]1 pregnancy using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data (2013-2023). Pregnancy loss was defined as [&ge;]1 prior miscarriages. Exposures included body mass index, smoking exposure (cotinine), lipid biomarkers, vitamin D and folate, and a composite cardiometabolic-nutritional risk score. Survey-weighted logistic regression estimated adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals, with bootstrap resampling for predictor robustness. Results: The weighted prevalence of pregnancy loss was 23%. Higher odds of pregnancy loss were associated with increasing age (aOR per year=1.02; 95% CI: 1.00-1.04), Non-Hispanic Black race (aOR=1.32; 95% CI: 1.00-1.74), overweight (aOR=1.56; 95% CI: 1.16-2.11), obesity (aOR=2.06; 95% CI: 1.39-3.05), and smoking (aOR=1.58; 95% CI: 1.19-2.10). Adverse lipid profiles, particularly elevated triglycerides (aOR=1.83; 95% CI: 1.16-2.90) and high low-density lipoprotein (aOR=2.97; 95% CI: 1.45-6.61), were independently associated with pregnancy loss. Vitamin D/folate were not stable predictors. Higher composite cardiometabolic-nutritional risk scores were observed among women with pregnancy loss (P=0.026). Conclusion: Pregnancy loss clustered with adverse cardiometabolic and behavioral risk markers in a nationally representative population. These findings highlight pregnancy loss as a marker of broader metabolic vulnerability supporting the need for longitudinal studies and cardiometabolic profiling to inform preconception care and risk stratification.

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Host Genetic Regulation of NLRP3 Inflammasome Cytokines Reveals Immune and Vascular Pathways in HIV

Chung, R.; Chalasani, N. S.; Barbehenn, A. S.; Lundgren, E.; Savur, S.; Shome, S.; Sheikhzadeh, C. H.; Sarvadhavabhatla, S.; Donaire, M. S.; Pae, V.; Chu, X.; Winder, D.; Maguire, C. T.; Topal, S.; Ganesan, A.; Yabes, J. M.; Larson, D. T.; Lalani, T.; Ewers, E. C.; Colombo, R. E.; Dugan, E.; Rathore, U.; Marson, A.; Agan, B. K.; Tomalka, J. A.; Sekaly, R.-P.; Loannidis, N. M.; Lee, S. A.

2026-06-10 hiv aids 10.64898/2026.06.08.26355202 medRxiv
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People with HIV exhibit elevated inflammation and cardiovascular risk despite antiretroviral therapy. To define the genetic architecture of inflammasome-associated inflammation, we performed whole-genome sequencing and quantified plasma IL-6, IL-1{beta}, and IL-18 in 1,000 ART-suppressed PWH from the U.S. Military HIV Natural History Study. Genome-wide analyses identified 14 loci implicating antiviral defense (DDX17, DDX41, EEA1, BCL11A), lipid metabolism (ABCA1, ABCA12, ABCC1, AGMO), and vascular remodeling (KLHL29, RNF213, ETV1). Transcriptome-wide analyses across cardiovascular and immune tissues identified regulatory programs linking interferon signaling, immune activation, and vascular biology to circulating cytokine levels. Mendelian randomization analyses supported causal relationships between inflammasome-associated cytokines and vascular events. Functional integration with genome-wide CRISPR perturbation datasets in primary CD4 T cells linked cytokine-associated loci to HIV antiviral pathways and cytokine regulatory networks. External validation in cohorts without HIV demonstrated pathway-level convergence despite limited variant-level overlap. These findings define genetic mechanisms linking inflammasome signaling, antiviral defense, and cardiovascular risk.

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Associations between initial treatments for acute low back pain and opioid use disorder and overdose risk in Medicaid patients

Doan, L. V.; Hung, A. M.; Olfson, M.; Williams, N. T.; Rudolph, K. E.

2026-06-08 pain medicine 10.64898/2026.06.05.26355003 medRxiv
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Introduction: Acute low back pain is a leading cause of disability worldwide. Clinical guidelines recommend non-pharmacological therapies as first-line treatment and advise caution with opioid prescribing. However pharmacological therapies, including opioids and gabapentinoids, remain commonly used. The comparative risks of subsequent opioid use disorder (OUD) and overdose diagnosis associated with initial treatment modality in large, real-world populations is not well characterized. We estimated the incidence of new-onset OUD and overdose diagnosis among opioid-naive, Medicaid-insured adults with newly diagnosed acute low back pain and estimated the association between initial treatment modalities and subsequent OUD and overdose diagnosis risk. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using Medicaid T-MSIS Analytic files from 25 states (2016-2019). We identified opioid-naive adults with a new diagnosis of acute low back pain who initiated pharmacologic or non-pharmacologic treatment within 1 month of diagnosis. The primary outcome was incident OUD and overdose diagnosis (based on diagnosis codes in claims) during follow-up. Associations between initial treatment modality and OUD and overdose diagnosis risk were estimated using a non-parametric, doubly robust estimator to adjust for measured confounding. Results: The cohort included 525,002 opioid-naive adults initiating treatment for low back pain. The cumulative incidence of OUD and overdose diagnosis was 1.5% and 2.4% at 7 and 13 months, respectively. Compared to non-use, use of gabapentinoids during the first month of treatment was associated with the highest relative risk (increasing risk) by 130.1%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 117.8%, 142.3%), the second-highest relative risk was estimated for higher-dose opioids, defined as > 50 daily Morphine Milligram Equivalents (MME) (118.1%, 95% CI: 99.2%, 137.0%). Lower-dose, short-duration opioids ([&le;] 50 MME, [&le;] 7 days) were also associated with elevated risk, though substantially smaller in magnitude (20.8%, 95% CI: 13.8%, 27.9%). In contrast, non-pharmacologic, non-interventional therapies were associated with reduced OUD and overdose diagnosis risk, with physical therapy demonstrating the largest relative reduction of 34.0% (95% CI: -40.9%, -27.1%). Discussion: In opioid-naive Medicaid patients with acute low back pain, initial non-pharmacologic treatment was associated with reduced OUD and overdose diagnosis risk. Gabapentinoids and opioids were each associated with increased risk; for opioids, the degree of risk increased with higher doses and durations. These results support guideline recommendations favoring non-pharmacologic treatment as first-line therapy and indicate the importance of cautious prescribing when pharmacologic treatment is considered.

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Albuminuria Changes as a surrogate endpoint in Apolipoprotein L1 Mediated Kidney Disease in Vanderbilt BioVU and the Million Veteran Program

Mamak, F.; Yu, Z.; Triozzi, J. L.; Corty, R.; Wheless, L.; Wang, G.; Giri, A.; Chen, H. C.; Wilson, O. W.; Bick, A. G.; Gaziano, J. M.; Tao, R.; Hung, A. M.

2026-06-08 nephrology 10.64898/2026.06.04.26354945 medRxiv
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Importance: Recently, proteinuria has been accepted as a surrogate end point for clinical trials in focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) ang IgA nephropathy. However, proteinuria has not been evaluated in Apolipoprotein L1 (APOL1)-mediated kidney disease (AMKD). Methods: Real world data (RWD) analysis of 128 patients of African ancestry with APOL1 high risk genotypes, without diabetes, enrolled in the Million Veteran Program (MVP; n=109) or the biorepository at Vanderbilt University (BioVU; n=19), who had urine albumin-creatinine ratio (UACR) >= 420 mg/g (PCR~0.9 g/g) with a concurrent GFR value. The main predictor was change in the log-UACR at 12 months. The primary outcome was annual GFR slope over 24 months. Secondary outcomes included a kidney composite of a sustained 30% GFR decline, end stage kidney disease (ESKD) or death and ESKD as a single outcome. Linear regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the effect of changes in UACR and the outcomes. Results: In the pooled analysis the mean age was 56.8 (SD 15.5) y, 116 were male (90.6%) and three patients had diagnosis of FSGS at baseline. Mean baseline eGFR was 46.8 (SD 16.1) mL/min/1.73m2, mean baseline UACR was 1240.8 (1107.7) mg/g, mean eGFR slope was -4.67[-6.00, -3.33] mL/min/1.73m2/year and the geometric mean percentage changes in the UACR at 12 months were -57.5% [-65.0%, -48.4%]. For every 1 unit of log (UACR) increment at 12 months, the annual eGFR slope decreased by -1.80 [-2.56, -1.03] mL/min/1.73m2 in the pooled analysis. For every 1 unit of log (UACR) increment at 12 months, the Cox regression showed a 61% increase in the risk of a kidney composite (p=0.002) and a 98% increase in the risk of ESKD (p<0.001). It was estimated that a 50% reduction of UACR at 12 months was associated with a 28% reduction in the kidney composite endpoint (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]=0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI]:0.59-0.88; p=0.002), and a 38% reduction in the risk of ESKD (aHR=0.62; 95% CI:0.49-0.80; p<0.001). Conclusions and relevance: Changes in UACR at 12 months significantly modify the rate of decline of GFR over 24 months and clinically meaningful endpoints, supporting the use of UACR changes as surrogate endpoint in AMKD.

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Computational and Experimental Antibody Affinity and Diagnostic Accuracy Quantification of SARS-CoV-2 SD2 Major Disulfide Loop Analog

Pollo, B. A. L. V.; Perias, G. A.; Aguimatang, R. H.; Espiritu, A. P.; Ching, D.; Idolor, M. I.; King, R. A.; Climacosa, F. M.; Caoili, S. E.

2026-06-08 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.06.05.26353587 medRxiv
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Introduction: Synthetic oligopeptides provide a rapid and cost-efficient approach to developing antibodies and diagnostics for emerging viral variants. Methods: This study computationally and experimentally characterized a synthetic peptide analog of the SARS-CoV-2 spike subdomain 2 major disulfide loop (SD2MDL), designated S621 (CPVAIHADQLTPTWRVYSTC). Binding affinity was computationally estimated using the Heuristic Affinity Prediction Tool for Immune Complexes (HAPTIC), while experimental validation was performed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) with rabbit-derived antipeptide antibodies. Clinical diagnostic accuracy testing was done using plasma samples from RT-PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients and pre-COVID-19 controls. Results: S621 demonstrated nanomolar binding affinity (Kdapp = 1.14 nM) and high avidity (3.67 nM), closely matching HAPTIC predictions (3.54 nM). Diagnostic evaluation yielded a sensitivity of 89.92% and specificity of 27.79%, corresponding to an overall accuracy of 71.79%. Discussion: These findings demonstrate that a single synthetic peptide derived from a conserved spike subdomain can function as a high-affinity surrogate for full-length antigens, supporting its potential application in rapid peptide-based immunodiagnostics.

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Within-household transmission risk of pulmonary tuberculosis in the era of universal antiretroviral therapy

Khan, P. Y.; Govender, I.; McCreesh, N.; Sithole, M.; Mkwanzai, E.; Sweeney, S.; Ording-Jespersen, G.; Wong, E. B.; Hanekom, W.; Houben, R. M. G. J.; White, R. G. M. G. J.; Smit, T.; Smith, M. J.; Fielding, K.; Grant, A. D.

2026-06-09 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.01.26354571 medRxiv
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Background Tuberculosis remains the leading infectious cause of death worldwide. In the WHO African region, declining incidence has coincided with antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up, though whether this reflects reduced progression to disease or reduced transmission is unclear. We evaluated how ART and symptom status influence within-household Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) transmission risk. Methods We conducted a case-contact household study in rural South Africa, enrolling index adults with bacteriologically-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis. MTBC immunoreactivity was measured in all child household contacts (aged 2-14 years) as a proxy measure of within-household transmission. We assessed the influence of index person ART status and symptom status, and explored effect-measure modification of the association between index person HIV status and transmission risk by sex. Results Among 755 child contacts of 296 index persons, effective ART was not associated with within-household MTBC transmission risk (risk ratio [RR], 1.07; 95% CI, 0.66-1.74). Among PLHIV engaged in ART care, WHO TB four-symptom screen (WHO4SS) status was not associated with transmission risk (RR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.43-1.47), although absence of reported cough reduced risk (RR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.38-0.96). A pronounced interaction between sex and HIV status was observed: HIV-negative women had the highest within-household MTBC transmission risk (30.5% vs. 14.3% in women with HIV) whereas risks were similar between HIV-positive and HIV-negative men. Conclusions We found no evidence that effective ART or WHO4SS status influenced within-household MTBC transmission risk, though confidence intervals were wide. Absence of reported cough was associated with lower risk, and transmission risk was highest among child contacts of HIV-negative women. These findings suggest reported cough is a useful marker of transmission risk and that routine tuberculosis screening within ART care may reduce transmission from PLHIV; intensified efforts are nonetheless needed to achieve earlier tuberculosis detection in HIV-negative individuals.

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Mortality in people with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD): Examining how risk is embodied in a pooling of two prospective cohort studies

Li, H.; Ford, T.; Warrier, V.; Bell, S.; Batty, G. D.

2026-06-09 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.08.26355148 medRxiv
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Background. Nascent findings suggest that people with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) experience higher rates of mortality. To date, study samples have been insufficiently well-characterized to examine the mechanisms via which this neurodevelopmental condition elevates mortality risk. Methods. We used data from the 2007 and 2011 waves of the US National Health Interview Survey, a general population-based cohort study comprising 52097 adults (28675 women) aged 18 years or older at baseline. ADHD diagnosis and an array of demographic, socioeconomic, lifestyle, and co-morbidity (somatic and psychiatric) covariates were self-reported. Findings. At baseline, compared with unaffected individuals, participants with ADHD were more likely to be socioeconomically disadvantaged, smoke cigarettes, consume alcohol, and report symptoms of psychological distress. A median 7.75 years of mortality surveillance (range: 7.25-12.25) gave rise to 6597 deaths from all-causes. After adjustment for age, sex, ethnicity, and survey year, ADHD was associated with a markedly elevated risk of death (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.58 [1.20-2.09]). Statistical adjustment for socioeconomic circumstances (11% attenuation), physical co-morbidities (15%), and lifestyle factors (17%) had only a modest impact on the ADHD-death gradient, with the greatest explanatory power apparent for symptoms of depression and anxiety (58%). The magnitude of the association of ADHD with mortality was commensurate to that for several well-established risk factors such as poverty (1.66 [1.55-1.78]), hypertension (1.41 [1.32-1.51]), and diabetes (1.71 [1.59-1.85]) but somewhat lower than cigarette smoking (2.51 [2.29-2.76]) after controlling for age, sex, ethnicity, and survey year. Associations between ADHD and cause-specific mortality from cardiovascular disease, cancer, and chronic respiratory disease were inconclusive. Interpretation. In the present study, the influence of ADHD on total mortality appears to be largely embodied via a series of malleable characteristics, particularly mental illness. If confirmed elsewhere, these results raise the possibility that risk factor modification via standard pharmacological and behavioral interventions could help reduce rates of premature mortality in this patient group. Funding. This paper received no direct funding. GDB is supported by the UK Medical Research Council (MR/P023444/1) and the US National Institute on Aging (1R56AG052519-01, 1R01AG052519-01A1).

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Behavioral and Functional Neuroimaging Effects of Delivering a Course of Repetitive Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation to Personalized Targets Within the Ventrolateral Or Dorsolateral Prefrontal Cortex in Treatment-Seeking Participants with Cannabis Use Disorder

McCalley, D.; Wong, B.; Geoly, A.; Struckman, W.; Azeez, A.; Kaloiani, I.; Kim, B.; Ninomiya, S.; Ehrie, J.; Austelle, C. W.; Rolle, C. E.; Kim, J. P.; Froeliger, B.; McRae-Clark, A. L.; Sahlem, G.

2026-06-10 addiction medicine 10.64898/2026.06.08.26355193 medRxiv
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Background: Repetitive Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (rTMS) is a promising treatment across addictive disorders including Cannabis Use Disorder (CUD). Stimulation of two rTMS-targets, the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) and the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (LDLPFC), limbic and executive control network hubs respectively, may yield differential effects. In this pilot trial, we explored the differential effects of 36-sessions of rTMS applied to either the vmPFC or LDLPFC. Methods: Treatment-seeking participants with moderate or severe CUD (n=20, 10F, age=33.3+9.8SD) were randomized to 36-sessions of open-label rTMS (two sessions-per-visit, two or three visits-per-week) to either the LDLPFC (3000-pulses; 10Hz) or vmPFC (900-pulses; 1Hz) using personalized functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) targets along with three-sessions of Motivational Enhancement Therapy. At baseline and following rTMS, the Time-Line Follow-Back was used to measure Days-per-week of cannabis use and the fMRI Regulation of Craving (ROC) task was used to measure network activation to cues associated with long-term negative ('Later') and short-term positive ('Now') consequences of cannabis use. Results: Eighty percent of participants completed study-rTMS. There was a significant decrease in days-per-week of cannabis use in both groups (vmPFC: d=7.9; DLPFC, d=3.1) between the four-weeks of baseline and seven-weeks of follow-up. LDPFC-rTMS reduced fMRI BOLD signal magnitude and increased LDLPFC functional connectivity in response to cues, while vmPFC-TMS reduced functional connectivity. Conclusions: Treatment-seeking participants with CUD reduced the number of days-per-week they used cannabis when receiving rTMS applied to either the LDPFC or vmPFC, while fMRI effects differed by treatment target. Future larger sham-controlled trials are needed for efficacy and biomarker determination.