The impact of the United States foreign aid freeze on HIV service delivery in PEPFAR-supported countries: a facility-level analysis of 2024-2025 programme data

IntroductionOn January 20, 2025, the U.S. government froze foreign assistance including for PEPFAR, though a limited waiver for "life-saving" interventions was subsequently granted. PEPFARs 2025 monitoring results, released April 17, 2026, covered only quarter 4 while an earlier inadvertent release included all four quarters. Combining both data sets, we systematically assess facility-level programmatic performance and reporting trends to quantify service disruptions accounting for reporting discrepancies. MethodsWe categorized facilities by reporting continuity across Q1 2024 and Q4 2025 (e.g. continuous, intermittent, dropped, or new) and assessed changes in service delivery by the category of health facility for key HIV treatment, testing, PMTCT, and prevention programming. We additionally analyze changes in employed human resources for health (HRH) reported by PEPFAR. ResultsPEPFAR data included 31,746 facilities and community service sites. 71.3% were classified as continuous reporters, 16.9% intermittent reporters, 2.5% community services, 3.9% dropped in 2025, and 3.1% new in 2025. Total number of people accessing HIV treatment declined modestly by -0.3%, but differed by facility category. Continuous facilities saw a 0.5% increase in people on treatment, while intermittent facilities saw a -1.7% decrease. HIV testing declined -17%. HIV diagnoses declined -13% in continuous facilities, -35% in community services, and -29% in intermittent facilities. PMTCT infant testing and diagnoses declined by -6% and -12% in continuous facilities, respectively, and -60% and -31% in intermittent facilities, respectively. PrEP initiations declined -33%. Total direct service delivery HCWs reduced -62,541 (-24%) ConclusionThese findings reveal substantial disruptions across PEPFAR service areas, with the steepest declines among intermittent and community-based delivery sites, alongside a 24% reduction in direct service delivery healthcare workers. As potentially the final data set PEPFAR will ever release, these findings represent a troubling inflection point. The dismantling of public data systems and accountability structures undermine progress and enable programmatic gaps to develop and go unnoticed that risk allowing HIV resurgence to occur over the coming years.