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Erythrocyte Count and the Human Natural Lifespan Limit: Evidence from the Long Life Family Study

Arbeev, K. G.; Bagley, O.; Murabito, J. M.; Cohen, H. J.; Pierce, B. L.; Johnson, W. E.; Eisenberg, D. T. A.; Mahajan, M. C.; Andersen, S. L.; Christensen, K.; Zmuda, J. M.; Thyagarajan, B.; Luo, S.; Yashin, A. I.; Province, M. A.; Aviv, A.

2026-06-15 physiology
10.64898/2026.06.08.730977 bioRxiv
Show abstract

Erythropoiesis is the most replication-intensive process in the body. Its lifelong replicative demands may erode hematopoietic cells replicative capacity, leading to a decline in erythrocyte count (EC) in older individuals and limiting their lifespan. We examined the relationship between EC and mortality among 1,620 participants aged [≥]70 years in the Long Life Family Study, among whom lower EC further augmented the exponential age-dependent rise in mortality. We identified an EC threshold (ECT) ([~]3.8x1012/L) below which mortality was amplified (p=9.3x10-6). As EC declined with age (p=8.2x10-18), it fell below this threshold in many participants, sharply increasing their mortality risk. This mortality-based ECT in older individuals emerged from modeling, independent of the WHO anemia definition based on statistical thresholds (5th centiles) of hemoglobin distribution in populations [≤] 65 years. Thus, declining EC may be one of the biological factors imposing a natural lifespan limit on many older individuals.

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