The Burden of Malignant Skin Melanoma in China: From 1990 to 2021 with Estimation to 2036

BackgroundMalignant skin melanoma (MSM), a highly aggressive skin cancer from melanocytes, has a higher mortality rate than other skin cancers due to its metastatic nature. Despite advancements in diagnostics and treatment, melanoma remains a significant health concern in China. MethodsData from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database was utilized to analyze MSM trends in China from 1990 to 2021. Statistical analyses, including Joinpoint regression and decomposition analysis, were employed to examine changes in incidence and mortality. The ARIMA model was used to project age-standardized incidence and mortality rates through 2036. ResultsIn 2021, China reported approximately 13,437 new cases of MSM, with a total patient population of 81,219 and 5,373 MSM-related deaths. Between 1990 and 2021, the incidence and prevalence rates of MSM significantly increased, while mortality rates showed a slight decline. The highest incidence rate was observed in the 55-59 age group, with males facing notably higher risks than females. Joinpoint regression analysis indicated rapid Age-Standardized Incidence Rate (ASIR) growth from 2004 to 2012, and decomposition analysis identified population aging as the primary driving factor. ARIMA forecasts suggest that by 2036, ASIR will reach 0.88 for males and 0.71 for females, while Age-Standardized Death Rate (ASDR) will stabilize or decline. ConclusionThe MSM burden in China has intensified, with increasing incidence and prevalence rates over time. Although mortality rates have declined slightly, the impact of melanoma on public health remains significant.