Counting Cases and Deaths by Age Tells Us About COVID-19 Infectious and Lethal Components

Gauging COVID-19s lethality, and how vaccination can reduce that lethality, has been challenging. Here, a new method, Gompertzian Analysis, counting cases and deaths, by age, and displaying them on logarithmic graphs, is outlined, and its first findings presented: FIRST, COVID-19 Gompertzian Lethality (Deaths/Cases) exhibits an ~10,000-fold exponential increase in the chance of death with age, the Gompertzian Force of Mortality, captured by the Gompertz Mortality Equation. SECOND, COVID-19 Pasteurian Infectivity (Cases/Population) occurs at similar rates across ages. THIRD, the same Gompertzian Force of Mortality characterizes other diseases and all-cause mortality, possibly from loss of Mitotic Dilution of toxic compounds due to decline in mitosis. FOURTH, resistance to COVID-19 infectivity and lethality appear to be separate processes. FIFTH, Over the past several years, Gompertzian Lethality, has declined, but not Pasteurian Infectivity. SIXTH, with each variant, Gompertzian Lethality has declined, but not Pasteurian Infectivity. SEVENTH, the unvaccinated have seen a decline in Gompertzian Lethality, less than the vaccinated, ascribable to infection, at the cost of lives lost. EIGHTH, different vaccines have different reductions in Gompertzian Lethality and Pasteurian Infectivity. NINTH, vaccination has reduced Pasteurian Infectivity, but not enough to suppress the pandemic. TENTH, vaccination has reduced Gompertzian Lethality, with sequential vaccination pointing linearly towards zero death after 3 or 4 boosters, without signs of waning. CONCLUSION: Gompertzian Analysis provides new, practical, actionable, information for understanding, and minimizing, the lethal burden of COVID-19 and other diseases.