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Patterns

Elsevier BV

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Patterns's content profile, based on 78 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.09% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
PCGS: biomarker and risk group identification for Pediatric Cancers via explainable Graph neural networks with Shapley values

Shi, Z.; Budhkar, A.; Amin, W.; Pollok, K. E.; Su, J.; Huang, K.

2026-09-01 health informatics 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361540 medRxiv
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Improvements in data availability, sharing, and integration, together with the development of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques, are advancing precision medicine for pediatric cancer by facilitating diagnosis, biomarker discovery, and drug development. Data sharing commons and initiatives like the Childhood Cancer Data Initiative (CCDI) provide access to pediatric-specific genomic and clinical data cohorts and improve data availability for pediatric cancer research. Based on CCDI, a scalable AI platform, Graph Artificial Intelligence for Pediatric Oncology (GAIPO), integrates various data modalities from bulk and single-cell omics data to clinical information. Such multi-modal data facilitates the training and development of advanced XAI models for pediatric cancers. We then developed an end-to-end multi-modality framework, PCGS, for pediatric cancer by incorporating omics-specific representation learning via GNN models with cross-attention fusion and multi-objective learning for downstream tasks such as classification, clustering, and survival analysis. This framework outperforms previous supervised multi-omics integration baseline approaches based on glioma and Wilms tumor cohorts and enables GNN model explainability via Shapley value-based feature attribution approaches to explain the contributions of gene-level features across various biomedical tasks, including classification and survival. Given specific background samples (e.g., age groups, sex, grades) as baselines, this explainable GNN model estimates and ranks the importance scores for input features from each omics modality. It identifies background-specific key features for biomarker discovery, risk group identification, and survival analysis in glioma and Wilms tumor, with potential applicability to other pediatric cancers.

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An LLM enabled real-time estimation of seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness from social media data

Pavia, M. J.; Amaro, I. F.; Xu, D.; Gonzalez-Hernandez, G.; Scotch, M.

2026-08-31 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361670 medRxiv
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Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) is estimated from a limited number of clinics using a test-negative design. These standard estimates face geographic, temporal, and operational constraints. Using Twitter/X data, we applied few-shot chain-of-thought prompting to identify self-reported vaccination status and influenza test results, then implemented a test-negative-like design to estimate VE. Our estimates fell within the range of interim reports and could complement current systems, improving feasibility, timeliness, and scalability.

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RedFuMOS: A novel approach for multi-omics and clinical data-driven patient stratification

De Luca, S.; Fava, C.; Rizzo, G.; Visconti, A.; Berchialla, P.

2026-08-31 health informatics 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361415 medRxiv
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Background. Patient stratification from multi-omics and clinical data is essential for uncovering disease heterogeneity and moving toward more personalized treatment strategies. However, integrating heterogeneous data layers while identifying robust patient strata remains challenging. Methods. We introduce Reduced Fusion of Multi-Omics Stratification (RedFuMOS), a novel three-step approach for patient stratification based on mixed-type multi-omics data. RedFuMOS extends Similarity Network Fusion to accommodate mixed-type data layers and layer-specific similarity measures for data integration, includes a dimensionality reduction step to mitigate the curse of dimensionality, and performs patient stratification using density-based hierarchical clustering with HDBSCAN. It also implemented an automated optimization procedure to identify the best set of hyperparameters, minimizing the need for manual tuning. Results. RedFuMOS outperformed six state-of-the-art tools for multi-omics patient stratification in a comprehensive simulated benchmarking study, which also confirmed that, although computationally expensive, the dimensionality reduction step is crucial for achieving good stratification performance. Additionally, RedFuMOS identified two clinically relevant patient strata in a small real-world cohort of patients with Philadelphia chromosome-positive chronic myeloid leukaemia. Conclusion. RedFuMOS provides a flexible framework for integrating heterogeneous multi-omics and clinical data. RedFuMOS is available as an R package at http://github.com/delucasara/RedFuMOS.

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Making Accelerating Medicines Partnership Data Findable and Interoperable through a Common Data Model: Extending OMOP for Multi-Source Multimodal Data

Tindall, C.; Long, R. A.; Naughton, B.; Mapes, B. M.; Vismer, D.; Skinner, H. G.; Malenfant, J.; Maurya, M. R.; Nalls, M. A.; Ramachandran, S.; Nguyen, T.; Peters, M. A.; Scheuermann, R. H.

2026-09-02 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.08.31.26361831 medRxiv
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SysBio FAIRplex is a Common Fund Venture Program that catalogs and indexes data from the Accelerating Medicines Partnership(R) (AMP(R)) Program through a federated model in which data hosts retain custody of their datasets. The central piece of this work is the SysBio Common Data Model (SysBio CDM). AMP is a precompetitive public-private partnership started in 2014 that unites the resources of NIH and private partners to improve our understanding of disease pathways and transform current models for developing new treatments by: - identifying new targets, biomarkers, and development paradigms; - developing leading-edge tools and technologies; - collecting large-scale datasets and supporting analytics for open analysis by the public; and - generating consensus platforms and procedures. A multidisciplinary Task Force was chartered to design the SysBio CDM by extending the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership (OMOP) Common Data Model into the -omics domain. The Task Force produced a Minimum Viable Product comprising nine OMOP tables; four extension tables for assay and file metadata; and a Common Data Element (CDE) Registry to specify field semantics. This manuscript describes the deliverable: the underlying design choices, the criteria applied in selecting and constructing the extension tables, how the extended model supports multimodal data integration across AMP projects, and what further work to support additional -omics modalities would entail. As an auxiliary methodology, the paper also describes the AI-assisted CDE harmonization workflow used to populate the model.

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Benchmarking ten frontier large language models on 1,477 board style multiple choice questions in hematology

Radoynova, M.; Benouis, M.; schulze, f.; Winter, S.; Bornhauser, M.; Middeke, J. M.; Eckardt, J.-N.

2026-09-02 hematology 10.64898/2026.09.01.26361881 medRxiv
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Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used by clinicians and patients for medical queries, yet their accuracy and safety at the specialist level in hematology remain insufficiently characterised. We benchmarked ten frontier proprietary and open-weight LLMs across two generations on 1,477 board-style hematology multiple-choice questions (MCQs) derived from five educational datasets spanning nine disease areas and six clinical skill domains, including text-only and multimodal case vignettes. Claude Opus 5 had the highest mean accuracy (92.7% text, 76.9% multimodal), followed closely by Gemini-3.1 Pro (91.4% and 78.7%), Gemini-3.6 Flash (91.0% and 74.8%) and GPT-5.6 Sol (89.9% and 76.7%). Accuracy significantly correlated with model size both for text-only and multimodal MCQs. Between model generations, the largest improvements in accuracy were seen for open-weight models whereas proprietary models showed only marginal gains. In error analysis, top-performing models exhibited highly concordant failure patterns, suggesting shared limitations on challenging cases. Frontier LLMs exhibit substantial specialist hematology knowledge across diverse subspecialist domains and clinical skill sets. Yet, despite high accuracy on board-style questions in hematology, continuous expert-on-the-loop output monitoring is paramount.

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Novel Entropy-Based Framework for Quantifying Dynamic Epistemic Uncertainty in Clinical Medicine

Yano, Y.; Shintani, E.; Arita, S.; Ashine, R.; Iinuma, N.; Mori, H.; Fujibayashi, K.; Yamada, Y.; Saita, M.; Nakashima, N.; Itoh, H.; Nangaku, M.; Ohashi, M.; Daida, H.; Arai, H.; Naito, T.

2026-08-31 health informatics 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361497 medRxiv
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The widespread adoption of clinical large language models (LLMs) introduces significant risks of automation bias, premature closure, and clinician deskilling. Current interpretability paradigms, including latent space trajectories, Concept Activation Vectors, and Concept Bottleneck Models, suffer from topological stagnation, metric distortion, and epistemic occlusion, frequently masking intermediate diagnostic uncertainty behind falsely confident outputs. To address these structural vulnerabilities, this paper introduces a novel closed-loop, multi-agent framework designed to quantify and visualize dynamic epistemic uncertainty in clinical LLM reasoning. By coupling predictive Shannon entropy with non-linear Isometric Feature Mapping (ISOMAP), the architecture projects high-dimensional inference state vectors onto a calibrated two-dimensional latent space, thereby assigning a quantifiable thermodynamic energy state to the reasoning path to track diagnostic velocity, cognitive momentum, and trajectory efficiency across sequential diagnostic rounds. Pilot validation across representative emergency medicine scenarios demonstrated distinct topological and information-theoretic behaviors: unconfounded cases (cerebellar infarction) exhibited smooth geodesic progression toward the ground truth alongside monotonic Shannon entropy decay from 2.15 to 1.74; noisy environments with ambiguous findings (spontaneous pneumothorax) suffered from trajectory wandering, local minimum traps, and high sustained entropy (~2.41) due to insufficient repulsive weighting for negative evidence; and triage-conflicted cases (acute cholangitis) achieved precise geometric proximity to the true node but experienced top-1 rank stagnation because the model conflated acute severity triage (sepsis) with anatomical etiology. By rendering machine hesitation and cognitive divergence visually auditable before final diagnostic crystallization, this geometric-information framework enables dynamic trust calibration and human-AI co-regulation at the point of care while establishing a clear mathematical foundation for future architectural interventions, such as dual-channel safety decoupling and non-linear repulsive weighting. Moving forward, validating these architectural enhancements across large-scale electronic health record databases and prospective clinical trials will be essential to realize its full clinical utility, establishing a foundational blueprint for safe, transparent, and cognitively synergistic AI integration in future medical practice. By rendering the LLM's reasoning process visually auditable, this framework lays the groundwork for capturing and externalizing the clinician's own cognitive patterns within the AI, forming a coupled system. This enables the explicit visualization of cognitive gaps between physician hypotheses and AI inferences, transforming the interaction from simple answer-checking into a dynamic learning process for both human and machine that prevents diagnostic oversight. Ultimately, because the responsibility for final clinical decision-making remains with the human practitioner, this framework serves as a vital decision-support mechanism. Moving forward, validating these architectural enhancements across large-scale electronic health record databases and prospective clinical trials will be essential to realize its full clinical utility, establishing a foundational blueprint for safe, transparent, and cognitively synergistic AI integration in future medical practice.

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Clinically Generalisable End-to-End Graph Learning for CT Image-Based Multitask Stroke Diagnosis

Lu, Z.; Uddin, S.; Uribe, S.; White, S.; Martins, R. T.; Chau, S.; Mosaddek, A. S. M.; Islam, M. S.; Nahar, N.; Azad, A. K. M.; Hossain, K. M. N.; Choudhury, H. S.; Hasan, K. M. R.; Mosaddek, N.; Rahman, S.; Hossain, M. M.; Sizar, K. M. M. H.; Angione, C.; Lio, P.; Islam, M. T.; Moni, M. A.

2026-08-31 radiology and imaging 10.64898/2026.08.26.26360026 medRxiv
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Stroke remains a leading cause of mortality and long-term disability worldwide, yet rapid diagnosis is often limited by the shortage of trained radiologists, particularly in resource-constrained settings. Automated analysis of CT imaging offers a potential solution, but existing methods often struggle to achieve clinically generalisable performance while jointly addressing multiple diagnostic tasks. Here we present the Intelligent Integrated Stroke Diagnosis System IISDS, an end-to-end deep learning framework built upon StrokeGNN, a graph-based architecture that integrates 3D contextual feature extraction with U-Net-based 2D lesion segmentation to enable comprehensive stroke analysis from non-contrast CT scans. IISDS performs stroke subtype classification, lesion segmentation and lesion volume estimation within a unified pipeline. To develop and validate the system, we collected and curated BGD-ISD through a collaboration between AI researchers, neurologists, radiologists and clinicians, resulting in a large multi-centre dataset comprising 1,507 CT scans from 597 stroke cases acquired across six hospitals and medical centres in Bangladesh. Across BGD-ISD and multiple publicly available datasets, IISDS achieves state-of-the-art performance on all tasks, improving segmentation accuracy by [≥]0.011 Dice score, reducing lesion volume estimation error by [≥]0.3 average symmetric surface distance (ASSD), and increasing classification performance by [≥]0.018 area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) compared with existing approaches. These results demonstrate the potential of graph-based deep learning to enable clinically generalisable, automated and scalable stroke diagnosis from CT imaging, supporting rapid clinical decision-making, particularly in healthcare environments with limited access to expert radiological interpretation.

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Novel Large Language Model-Based Detection of Echocardiographic Markers of Right Ventricular Dysfunction

Ekambarapu, L.; Pendyal, A.; Lin, A.; Alwakeel, M.; Rajaratnam, A.

2026-08-31 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361456 medRxiv
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Background: Unstructured biomedical data, such as echocardiography reports, are rich in information but time consuming to analyze at scale. Rule-based, regular expression-driven terminology mapping can only extract individual variables while large language models (LLMs) offer scalable and clinically meaningful interpretations of heterogeneous disease processes. Right ventricular dysfunction (RVD) is an example of a multifactorial disease state in which key structural and physiologic features are captured both narratively and in structured fields, making it an ideal test case for evaluating whether LLMs can recover complex phenotypes that rules based methods routinely miss. Purpose: To compare an LLM-based extraction method to a conventional rules-based schema for identifying and phenotyping echocardiographic features associated with RVD in a large TTE dataset. Methods: MIMIC-III NOTE2NUM echocardiography reports (n = 45,794) were analyzed using GPT-4o-based LLM extraction deployed within a secure health system enclave and were benchmarked against echocardiographic measurements defined in the MIMIC-III dictionary schema. In MIMIC-III, PH was recorded qualitatively (mild/moderate/severe) based on tricuspid regurgitant (TR) jet velocity and then re-coded as present vs. absent. LLM based extraction defined RVD as (1) RV structural abnormality (>= 1 of hypertrophy, dilation, or wall hypo-/akinesis) or (2) RV pressure/volume overload (>= 2 of the following: estimated right atrial pressure > 8 mmHg, TR jet velocity > 2.8 m/s, fractional area change < 35%, tricuspid annular planar systolic excursion < 17 mm, S' < 9.5 cm/s, or E/e' > 14), with PH defined as estimated pulmonary artery systolic pressure > 35 mmHg or qualitative documentation of PH. Results: LLM extraction identified PH in 15,394 (33.6%), RV pressure/volume overload in 14,449 (31.6%), and RV structural abnormalities in 11,955 (26.1%). Co-occurrence was common: overload + structural changes in 9,380 (20.5%), overload + PH in 9,756 (21.3%), structural changes + PH in 6,183 (13.5%), and all three in 5,620 (12.3%). Using the MIMIC-III dictionary schema, PH prevalence was similar (15,371; 33.6%), but RV overload fields were captured less often (pressure overload 1,357 [3.0%], volume overload 1,128 [2.5%], pressure + volume overload 1,093 [2.4%]; any overload field 3,578 [7.8%]), and RV pressure/volume overload with PH was identified in only 731 (1.6%). Conclusions: LLM-based extraction outperforms rules-based schemas for identifying complex disease states not defined by any single variable. By synthesizing multifactorial signals, LLMs can phenotype RVD with higher fidelity and support population-level assessment. Further validation using multimodality imaging, invasive hemodynamics, and clinical outcome data is needed.

9
Can Dental AI Really Beat Dentists? DentalPair-Cert for Rigorous AI-Dentist Inference

Alve, S. R.; Rahman, S.; Meem, S. M. A. C.

2026-09-02 dentistry and oral medicine 10.64898/2026.09.01.26361874 medRxiv
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A dental AI system and a dentist reading the same radiographs form a paired comparison. Published comparative studies often report the two arms separately against a reference standard, leaving the joint pattern of correctness between them unavailable for secondary paired inference. We show what that omission costs. The accuracy difference remains exactly identified; its sampling variance does not, so the report contains the estimate and not its uncertainty. On a study of 282 units, two published accuracies are consistent with 38 distinct joint tables whose confidence intervals differ in width by a factor of 2.5. The consequence is a three-zone decision map rather than a single threshold: differences at or below 1.06 points are non-significant under every compatible table, differences at or above 6.03 points are significant under every compatible table, and in between the published numbers cannot decide. We then show the omission is repairable at negligible cost. One additional integer, the number of units both arms classify correctly, identifies the joint table exactly and restores standard paired inference. For a panel of readers the pairwise dependences must arise from one joint distribution, a constraint that binds once three readers are present; publishing each reader's joint-correct count against a single reference reader cannot widen and may tighten every pairwise bound, and in a 7-arm experiment reduced them by a median of 37% even for pairs excluding that reference. Where the integer was never published we give DentalPair-Cert, an interval with finite-sample coverage uniformly over every admissible within-unit AI-dentist dependence under the independent-sampling-unit model, certified in both the nuisance maximization and the inversion. Across 4,200,000 simulated comparisons an independence analysis falls to 74.5% coverage with 12.2% type-I error; in a purposive sample of 9 recent comparative studies, 1 reported a paired test on discordant units.

10
Visual LLM-guided consensus spatial domain detection with L-STAR

Zhao, C.; Ji, Z.

2026-08-29 bioinformatics 10.64898/2026.08.25.747158 medRxiv
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Spatial domain detection is a central task in spatial transcriptomics, yet existing methods exhibit highly variable performance across datasets. We introduce L-STAR, a visual LLM-guided, consensus-based framework that leverages the visual reasoning capacity of large language models to adaptively rank and integrate spatial domain detection methods. L-STAR achieves robust and consistently improved performance, outperforming single spatial domain detection methods across diverse datasets.

11
Multi-season evaluation and analysis of categorical trend forecasts of influenza hospital admissions in the United States

Davis, J. T.; Kaur, G.; Hines, A.; Ben-Nun, M.; Venkatramanan, S.; Brooks, L.; Mathis, S.; Ajelli, M.; Litvinova, M.; Kummer, A. G.; Ventura, P. C.; Mhade, S.; Weber, D.; Shemetov, D.; DeFries, N.; McDonald, D. J.; Yamana, T.; Zepeda-Tello, R.; Shaman, J.; Yaari, R.; Pei, S.; Webber, A.; Shandross, L.; Ray, E.; Wadsworth, S.; Niemi, J.; Redman, W. T.; Mullany, L.; Posner, R.; Mallela, A.; Lin, Y. T.; Hlavacek, W. S.; Smart, A.; Gill, A. A.; Drennan, A.; Fiebiger, B. J.; Miller, E. F.; Lee, J.; Mihaljevic, J. R.; Geist, K. A.; Baltz, M.; Bernik, O.; Truong, Y.-M. B.; Chen, Y.; Grosvenor, C. J.;

2026-09-02 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.31.26361843 medRxiv
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Forecasting influenza hospitalizations informs public health preparedness, yet questions remain about which types of forecasts best guide action. We evaluate categorical trend forecasts, which communicate probabilities of upcoming increases or decreases in epidemic trajectories, submitted to CDC's FluSight Forecasting Challenge between Fall-2024 and Spring-2026. Teams submitted probability distributions over five categories describing direction and magnitude of week-over-week changes in laboratory-confirmed influenza hospital admissions. We assessed performance using Ranked Probability Skill Score, Brier Skill Score, and measures of forecast-observation agreement. Most models outperformed an equal-probability baseline; the FluSight ensemble ranked among the top three in the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons. Forecasts were most accurate during stable periods and least during periods of rapid change, with most models underestimating observed trends. Conclusions were robust to choice of scoring metric and reference model. These results support categorical trend ensembles as an approach to communicating infectious disease forecasts that may inform public health decision-making.

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OmniScore: Universal Scoring of Diverse Biomolecular Complexes via Equivariant Geometry-Aware Discrete Representation Learning

Bui, T.-C.; Lee, J.; Ko, J.

2026-08-29 bioinformatics 10.64898/2026.08.28.747942 medRxiv
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Scoring biomolecular complexes is central to structure assessment and drug discovery, yet the complexes themselves vary widely in pose, size, and molecular composition. A scoring function tuned for one interaction type rarely carries over to another, and most existing methods compound the problem by leaning heavily on task-specific labels. We introduce OmniScore, a universal structure-based framework that learns a shared geometry-aware representation of complexes once and then adapts it to downstream scoring through lightweight task-specific heads. OmniScore couples a graph view and a sequence view of each structure, encodes its three-dimensional geometry, and compresses representations into a compact latent space that a reconstruction module and prediction heads can reuse. We pretrain this backbone on diverse datasets including complexes, monomers, and small molecules with complementary objectives: coordinate recovery, correcting corrupted input tokens, predicting molecular identity, and grounding the representation in structure-level physical quantities. Across the evaluated benchmarks, OmniScore gave the best antibody-antigen and nanobody-antigen quality assessment on all reported metrics compared to state-of-the-art baselines. Its frozen residue embeddings matched the state-of-the-art protein-tokenization method with an average functional-site accuracy of 71.8% on a standard residue-level benchmark. On protein-ligand scoring and ranking benchmarks, it performed on par with methods built specifically for that single task. These results suggest that geometry-aware pretraining can provide a reusable scoring backbone for tasks that depend on interfacial and residue-level structure, within the evaluated settings.

13
Cost-Aware Active Feature Acquisition for Differential Diagnosis under Realistic Clinical Availability Constraints

Bingham, J. C.; Arussy, N.

2026-08-31 health informatics 10.64898/2026.08.30.26361745 medRxiv
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Active Feature Acquisition (AFA) adaptively selects which diagnostic test to order next and offers a route to reduce unnecessary laboratory testing in acute care. Existing clinical AFA evaluations, however, assume every feature can be retrieved on demand and split data at the visit level, both of which inflate apparent performance. We re-evaluate cost-aware AFA under constraints designed to reflect deployment. From MIMIC-IV we constructed a cohort of 64,766 acute admissions (39,884 patients; 21 conditions; 55 features in 30 test panels) with a patient-level split, a 12-hour decision cutoff, and a per-patient availability mask from what was actually measured, and priced panels using the 2026 Medicare fee schedule under panel-level billing. We evaluated EIG-Cost, which scores each panel by Monte-Carlo Expected Information Gain penalised by its dollar cost, against eight published methods across budgets \30--$60 over five patient-level resamples. At a $30 budget, EIG-Cost achieved the highest macro-F1 (0.188, 95% CI [0.185, 0.191]) at the lowest cost ($17.28), exceeding the strongest baseline in all five resamples (p<0.001; Cohen's d=4.0), and led at every budget. Three of the eight methods collapsed to a vitals-only baseline (macro-F1 approx 0.040), acquiring nothing even at higher budgets, a genuine failure to adapt to availability rather than a budget limitation. Despite modest absolute accuracy, EIG-Cost's probabilities were well-calibrated (expected calibration error $0.048$). Under realistic availability constraints, clinical AFA is substantially harder than full-availability benchmarks imply, several published methods fail outright, and cost-aware information-gain scoring is a robust choice in this harder setting.

14
Large language model-augmented implicit surgical video review

Zhang, Z.; Qadir, M. I.; Ramchand, R.; Belwadi, M.; Ball, R. P.; Konstantinopoulos, K.; Abbey, E. M.; Ernsberger, K. T.; Guzman, M. J.; Hendren, S.; Holcomb, B. K.; Robb, B. W.; Stankowski, T.; Waters, J. A.; Stefanidis, D.; Bilimoria, K. Y.; Mohanty, S.; Kolbinger, F. R.

2026-08-31 surgery 10.64898/2026.08.25.26361071 medRxiv
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Surgical video interpretation is a promising medical artificial intelligence application. However, no existing video annotation method preserves the spatiotemporal complexity of surgeon reasoning. Here we show that verbal reasoning and visual attention can be converted into structured, machine-actionable records of intraoperative behaviours. Our method decomposes transcribed verbal commentary into video-anchored semantic feedback chunks, which are classified via a large language model, with spatial grounding to surgical scenes via eyegaze or cursor tracking. We demonstrate method validity and scalability on structured and unstructured annotation tasks. For quality feedback on full-length colorectal procedures, the method reached near-human fidelity for chunking (mean cosine similarity: 0.95, SD: 0.01) and semantic classification across observations (mean Cohen's kappa: 0.71, SD: 0.07) and evaluative triggers (mean Cohen's kappa: 0.67, SD: 0.14), with excellent usability ratings. For structured critical view of safety assessment in laparoscopic cholecystectomy, implicit annotation yielded excellent agreement with explicit reviewer ratings (Cohen's kappa: 0.83, 0.49 and 0.81 across three criteria). We anticipate this method will advance surgical data science by enabling scalable construction of meaningfully annotated surgical video datasets.

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Augmenting Deep Learning-Based PSMA PET/CT Metastasis Segmentation with a Population-Level Spatial Atlas

Chau, G. N.; Biswas, B. A.; Wagle, B. R.; Maeder, M. E.; Yu, J. B.; Bhattacharya, I.

2026-08-31 radiology and imaging 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361439 medRxiv
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Automated lesion segmentation is increasingly central to PSMA PET/CT interpretation, supporting staging, treatment planning, and response assessment at a scale that outpaces available nuclear-medicine expertise. However, automated PSMA-PET/CT whole-body lesion segmentation models are trained on images alone, with no knowledge of where in the body prostate metastases actually tend to occur. Radiologists use clinical domain knowledge of metastatic spread, but its absence in machine learning models produces false positives in anatomically implausible locations and missed lesions in high-risk sites such as the liver. In this work, we explore whether population-level spatial knowledge of metastatic spread can be used to augment deep learning segmentation predictions, and how such a prior should be fused with a network's output, without additional training. We build a data-driven metastasis atlas from 375 expert-annotated whole-body PSMA PET/CT scans and investigate its fusion with a trained segmentation network under a Bayesian framework, in which prediction probabilities from an nnU-Net-based lesion segmentation model serve as the likelihood and the data-driven atlas as the prior. Because metastases occupy only a small fraction of whole-body voxels, the atlas's peak probability is too low, and standard power-scaled or naive Bayesian pooling references lack the tools to deal with this shortcoming. This causes these standard fusion strategies to fail and, in the naive Bayesian case, to sharply degrade performance. We instead derive a calibrated, background-referenced log-odds fusion, one of many possible approaches to combine a population atlas with a deep learning model's predictions, distinct from classical multi-atlas label fusion in that it fuses a single population prior with a trained network's softmax rather than combining several registered atlases. Furthermore, this approach is neutral outside atlas support by construction, reduces exactly to the baseline network when unweighted, and requires no retraining. This atlas fusion significantly improved mean Dice over the baseline nnU-Net on a disjoint internal test set ($+0.011$, Holm-adjusted $p=0.021$) and on an independent external cohort ($+0.0129$, Holm-adjusted $p=3.8\times10^{-16}$), with lesion sensitivity improving from 0.849 to 0.861 internally and Dice improving over baseline in every stratified anatomic region, including the rare, high-risk sites motivating this work, while naive Bayesian pooling degrades performance sharply and power-scaled pooling underperforms it throughout. Our findings suggest that population-level spatial priors can meaningfully augment deep learning predictions in whole-body oncologic segmentation, provided the fusion rule is calibrated to where the prior actually carries signal.

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Surprisal-based large language models reveal immunologic insights in lobular breast cancer

Majumder, B. P.; Linak, J. A.; Adamson, R.; Aguilera, R. L.; Agarwal, D.; Reitz, Z.; Loiselle, S.; Devarakonda, S.; Clark, P.; Paulson, K. G.; Stanton, S.

2026-08-31 oncology 10.64898/2026.08.25.26361365 medRxiv
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In large data sets discovery is often limited to pre-conceived hypotheses and data fishing. Here we tested whether systematic exploration of AI generated hypotheses could uncover clinically meaningful signals in extensively studied data. We deployed AutoDiscovery, a newly launched large language model (LLM) framework designed to search for hypotheses based on surprisal and systematically interrogate complex datasets, on The Cancer Genome Atlas breast cancer cohort. The system did not identify clinically meaningful novel findings without human input. However, a seeded warm-start run with minimal text input from an oncologist revealed multiple interesting and surprising hypotheses. Among these was that a robust immune signature was present across all subtypes of invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC) that exceeded invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC). This observation was independently validated in independent cohorts and confirmed by high-sensitivity multi-immunofluorescence tumor tissue analyses. These results suggest immunotherapy approaches should be tested in ILC including early stage ER+HER2- ILC; these patients are currently excluded from large neoadjuvant immunotherapy trials. They further demonstrate that surprisal-based hypothesis generation frameworks can extract previously unappreciated patterns from deeply interrogated cancer datasets and imply that disease domain experts working with LLMs can derive more meaningful insights from complex data than either could achieve alone.

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Prospective In-silico Simulation of the VESALIUS-CV Trial Using Biomedical Knowledge Graph and Real-World Data-Driven AI Modeling

Perlman, A.; Goldstein, N.; Goldman, M.; Shapiro, M.; Barash, E.; Bar, A.; Raveh, T.; Tordjman, E.; Schussheim, H.; Dormont, F.; Matalon, O.

2026-08-31 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361436 medRxiv
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Background. Cardiovascular-outcomes trials are lengthy, costly, and associated with substantial uncertainty prior to readout. In-silico trial simulation using real-world data (RWD) has emerged as a potential tool to support earlier decision-making; however, evidence of prospective predictive validity, generated prior to trial result disclosure, remains limited. Methods. We applied a semi-mechanistic machine learning framework integrating real-world patient data with biologically informed drug representations to prospectively simulate the VESALIUS-CV trial evaluating evolocumab versus placebo. The simulation model was trained on a combination of patient-level real-world data and a drug-centric knowledge graph and validated for both patient-level and trial-level retrospective predictive performance. The model was then used to simulate VESALIUS-CV before public disclosure of trial results, using a locked model and prespecified eligibility criteria and primary endpoint aligned with the clinical protocol. A patient-level time-to-event model was used to generate virtual trial arms, from which cumulative incidence curves, hazard ratios, confidence intervals, and p-values for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) were estimated. Results. In retrospective validation, the model demonstrated strong patient-level discrimination, with time-dependent ROC-AUC values ranging from 0.80 to 0.90 across follow-up horizons. For trial-level validation, 22 randomized cardiovascular-outcomes trials were simulated, and hazard ratios for 3-point MACE across 24 between-arm comparisons showed consistent directional agreement and quantitative correlation with published results such that the model accurately predicted trial success, achieving an F1 score of 0.83, with precision of 0.79 and sensitivity of 0.89. In a fully prospective application, the simulation predicted a statistically significant reduction in 3-point MACE with evolocumab versus placebo, estimating a hazard ratio of 0.78 (95% CI, 0.70-0.87) at 54 months. These predictions were consistent with the subsequently reported VESALIUS-CV results, which demonstrated a hazard ratio of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.65-0.86) at 55 months of median follow-up. Conclusions. In a fully prospective setting, a RWD-driven, AI-based simulation accurately predicted the direction, magnitude, and temporal dynamics of treatment effects observed in the VESALIUS-CV trial. These results demonstrate that in-silico trial simulation can anticipate clinical outcomes in the prospective setting, supporting its use as a complementary tool for early decision-making, trial design optimization, and de-risking in cardiovascular drug development.

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Too slow Erythrocyte Sedimentation Rate: Deeper biophysical understanding, novel accurate parameters and new medical applications

Darras, A.; Qiao, M.; Peikert, K.; Hecksteden, A.; John, T.; Glass, H.; Stauffer, E.; Muniansi, I.; Champigneulle, B.; Pichon, A.; Furian, M.; Hancco Zirena, I.; Brugniaux, J. V.; Mühlbäck, A.; Simmonds, M. J.; Nader, E.; Joly, P.; Meyer, T.; Verges, S.; Hermann, A.; Danek, A.; Connes, P.; Wagner, C.; Kaestner, L.

2026-09-01 hematology 10.64898/2026.08.26.26360269 medRxiv
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The erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) is one of the most common and widely used laboratory diagnostic parameters in connection with inflammatory reactions and it is probable that every reader has already experienced a determination of their ESR. A rapid ESR is a non-specific parameter that provides information about the inflammatory process. Although the origins of this methodology date back to antiquity, the description of the process as the collapse of a percolating gel formed from erythrocytes has only recently been achieved. It was not yet known whether slow ESR has any medically relevant significance. Here we show a variety of clinical pictures that exhibit a systematically slow ESR (e.g., sickle cell disease, neuroacanthocytosis syndromes, chronic mountain sickness). Using a combination of measured data and physical modelling, we show how the accuracy and significance of ESR data can be increased. With this improved ESR (supraESR), we introduce a completely new, cost-effective diagnostic parameter, based on an established and easily automated measurement method, that enables low-cost screening for neuroacanthocytosis syndrome, a group of rare neurodegenerative diseases previously detectable only through complex diagnostic tests.

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Location-allocation modeling identifies strategic health facilities to expand access to snakebite antivenom in the Brazilian Amazon

Garcia Campos, M. A.; Rocha, T. A. H.; Perez de Souza, J. V.; Murase, L. S.; Murta, F.; Sartim, M. A.; Sachett, J.; Seabra de Farias, A.; Azevedo Machado, V.; Wen, F. H.; Staton, C. A.; Monteiro, W. M.; Gerardo, C. J.; Nickenig Vissoci, J. R.

2026-08-31 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.28.26360696 medRxiv
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Background: Snakebite envenoming is a major cause of preventable death and disability in the Brazilian Amazon, where long distances, sparse roads, and dependence on river transport delay access to antivenom. We developed location-allocation models to identify community health centers that could strategically expand access to antivenom in Amazonas State, Brazil. Methodology/Principal Findings: We conducted an ecological geospatial study using a 2025 WorldPop population surface, locations of existing and candidate health facilities, and a multimodal road-and-river transportation network derived from OpenStreetMap and HydroSHEDS. Population demand was represented by 7,065 populated centroids, including 1,586 within Indigenous territories. We applied a maximize-coverage algorithm with a six-hour travel-time threshold. Two models were developed: one for Amazonas excluding Manaus and one for populations living in Indigenous territories. Both models began with 77 facilities already providing antivenom and progressively added candidate community health centers until coverage gains plateaued. The plateau occurred at 110 facilities, corresponding to 33 additional centers. In the model excluding Manaus, this configuration covered 1,118,831 people, or 75.11% of the target population; 87.61% of those covered could reach care within three hours. In Indigenous territories, coverage increased from 50.55% to 69.50%, reaching 50,434 people, of whom 81.39% were within three hours of care. Validation used 3,595 snakebite notifications from the 30 highest-burden municipalities in the Brazilian Notifiable Diseases Information System during 2023-2025. The median proportion reaching care within six hours was 40.81% in observed data and 72.17% in model estimates. Conclusions/Significance: Strategically equipping 33 additional existing community health centers could substantially expand timely access to antivenom, particularly in rural and Indigenous areas. Location-allocation modeling that incorporates river transportation can support evidence-based decentralization of time-sensitive health services in geographically complex settings.

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Artificial Scientific Intelligence for Measurement-burden-aware Modelling and Interpretation of Multi-site Bone Mineral Density

Xiang, S.; He, H.; Xie, Z.; Cheng, C.-Y.; Li, H.; Liu, D.

2026-09-01 health informatics 10.64898/2026.08.30.26361665 medRxiv
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Agentic workflows can coordinate modelling, but balancing predictive performance, measurement burden and reproducibility is unclear. We developed DXA Agent, an agentic workflow for dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) outcomes integrating planning, feature-model refinement, tools, provenance and hypothesis-generating interpretation. Models were independently developed and tested in UK Biobank (5,318 participants) and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES; 3,777 participants), using cost-efficient and no-limit strategies. Across 20 UK Biobank and three NHANES bone mineral density sites, cost-efficient models achieved lower RMSE and higher R2 than the best conventional comparator, with median relative RMSE reductions of 10.9% and 9.9%, respectively. Classification was task dependent: UK Biobank osteoporosis averaged AUROC 0.839 and PR-AUC 0.182, whereas NHANES performance was comparable with conventional models. Higher-burden features did not consistently improve prediction. These retrospective, cohort-internal findings position DXA Agent as an inspectable, measurement-burden-aware research workflow requiring independent prospective validation.