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NeuroToxicology

Elsevier BV

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match NeuroToxicology's content profile, based on 14 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
Multi-matrix copper exposure is associated with reduced olfactory bulb volume and odor sensitivity in adolescents

Invernizzi, A.; Rodriguez, M. A.; Saviola, F.; Marinelli, G. P.; Oluyemi, K.; Rechtman, E.; Corbo, D.; Renzetti, S.; Tang, C. Y.; Mascaro, L.; Ambrosi, C.; Gasparotti, R.; Smith, D.; Wright, R. O.; Lucchini, R. G.; Placidi, D.; van Thriel, C.; Horton, M.

2026-07-16 occupational and environmental health 10.64898/2026.07.13.26357935 medRxiv
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Copper (Cu) is an essential metal involved in neurobiological processes including energy metabolism and neurotransmission, yet dysregulated Cu levels may adversely affect brain health and olfactory performance. Although olfactory dysfunction has primarily been studied in older adults and neurodegenerative disease, adolescence is a critical period of brain maturation during which the olfactory system may be particularly vulnerable. This cross-sectional study examined associations between Cu exposure, olfactory bulb (OB) volume, and olfactory performance in 200 adolescents and young adults (64% female; ages 13 - 25) from the Public Health Impact of Metals Exposure cohort. Cu concentrations in blood, urine, hair, and saliva were measured using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. T2-weighted magnetic resonance imaging scans estimated left, right, and total OB volumes using a three-stage deep learning pipeline. Olfactory performance was assessed using the Sniffin Sticks test. Weighted quantile sum regression evaluated associations between a Cu mixture index and OB outcomes, while standard linear regression models assessed individual Cu biomarkers. Models were adjusted for age and sex. A higher Cu index was associated with reduced left (Beta= -0.72, 95% CI [-1.42, -0.02]), right (Beta = -0.79, 95% CI [-1.43, -0.15]), and total OB volume (Beta= -1.55, 95% CI [-2.85, -0.25]), as well as lower odor threshold scores (Beta = -0.23, 95% CI [-0.42, -0.03]). Individual biomarkers were not independently associated with outcomes. These findings suggest that Cu exposure may adversely affect olfactory neurodevelopment during adolescence and highlight the importance of studying environmental exposures relevant to long-term neurological health.

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The independent and joint effects of outdoor air pollution exposure and genetic risk on mental health trajectories during adolescence

Cattarinussi, G.; Zhang, Y.; Dazzan, P.; Rakesh, D.

2026-07-15 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.07.12.26357864 medRxiv
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Air pollution exposure has been associated with increased risk of developing mental health problems. It is possible that individuals at high genetic risk for psychopathology may be more vulnerable to these effects; however, this question remains to be investigated. We leveraged longitudinal data from n=10,620 participants from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study to first investigate sex-stratified associations of particulate matter (PM2.) exposure and genetic risk with mental health trajectories across 9-16 years including internalizing symptoms and psychotic like experiences (PLEs). Additionally, we tested whether genetic risk for schizophrenia (PRS-SCZ) and major depressive disorder (PRS-MDD) exacerbate the association with PM2. exposure and change in symptoms over time. PM2. exposure was associated with lower decreases in PLEs over time in females (p-FDR=0.005), with no effects on internalising symptom trajectories in either sex. Genetic influences were sex-specific, with higher PRS-SCZ and PRS-MDD linked to greater increases in internalising symptoms in females (p-FDR=0.009; p-FDR=0.022) and higher PRS-MDD associated with greater decreases in PLEs in males (p-FDR=0.001). In females we also observed an interaction between PM2. and PRS-MDD on PLEs trajectories (p-FDR=0.048) such that those with high genetic risk and high PM2.5 exposure demonstrated increases in PLEs over time. Our results suggest that PM2. exposure and polygenic risk for depression jointly shape mental health during adolescence. This underscores the potential of interventions aimed at lowering air pollution during sensitive periods of neurodevelopment in improving adolescent mental health.

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Effects of acute intranasal allergen exposure on resident immune cells and sensory neurons in the mouse olfactory epithelium

Owens, R. E.; Matthews, B. E.; Mastrangelo, M. A.; Meeks, J. P.; Rowe, R. K.

2026-07-15 neuroscience 10.64898/2026.07.09.737488 medRxiv
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The main olfactory epithelium (MOE) is the primary site of olfaction and consists of multiple cell types including olfactory sensory neurons (OSNs), sustentacular cells, and immune cells. Neuroimmune interactions in epithelial tissues are critical in maintaining tissue function, but how OSNs and immune cells interact in the MOE in healthy and diseased states is largely unknown. Cellular responses in the MOE determine how and whether OSNs maintain olfactory function and are repaired or replenished following inflammatory environmental exposures. We hypothesized that acute nasal aeroallergen exposure alters immune cell function in the MOE to elicit a neuroprotective response, thereby preserving OSN function. We developed an environmental aeroallergen exposure consisting of one week of daily intranasal house dust mite extract (HDM) instillations. Spectral flow cytometry indicated only subtle changes in resident immune cells proportions and phenotypes in the MOE. Immunohistochemical evaluation did not reveal extensive changes in immune cell distribution in the sensory epithelium or lamina propria, but instead we observed increases in axonal olfactory marker protein (OMP) expression in the lamina propria, where resident immune cells are most abundant. To evaluate the effects of HDM exposure on OSN function, we performed live ex vivo Ca2+ imaging of MOEs from HDM- and sham-exposed transgenic mice using objective-coupled planar illumination (OCPI) microscopy. OSN responses to multiple odorants revealed increased chemosensory sensitivity and decreased across-trial adaptation in HDM-treated epithelia. These results indicate that short-term nasal aeroallergen exposure minimally alters immune cell phenotypes, and instead induces functional changes in OSN physiology that preserve olfactory function.

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Quantifying the global burden of lead exposure from dietary lead intake

Kinally, C.; Hu, H.; Fuller, R.

2026-07-21 occupational and environmental health 10.64898/2026.07.20.26358457 medRxiv
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Background: Lead exposure is estimated to cause approximately 3.5 million premature deaths a year, yet the key ongoing sources of lead exposure are unclear. Methods: We estimated the contribution of dietary lead intake to global blood lead levels (BLLs) for 7-year-old children and 22-year-old adults by applying the All-Ages Lead Model (AALM) to calculate blood lead levels (BLLs) based on 25 total diet studies (TDS) that quantify dietary lead intake across 46 countries. Results: For children, the population-weighted average dietary lead intake in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) (32.0 g/day) was found to be more than three times higher than in high-income countries (HICs) (9.3 g/day), and more than 10 times higher than the FDA reference level for children (2.2 g/day). The average impact on BLLs for children is estimated to be near 29 g/L in LMICs and near 12 g/L in HICs. Averaged across the TDS data, vegetables (27%) and cereals (24%) were found to contribute the most to dietary lead. Conclusions: While there are limitations associated with biokinetic modelling and the TDS data from LMICs, these results suggest that the contribution of dietary lead intake to global lead exposure is in the region of 40 to 50%, suggesting, in turn, that dietary lead intake is likely a major global driver of lead poisoning. Lead absorbed from the environment into food crops is expected to be the key driver of dietary lead. Current regulatory levels for maximum lead concentrations in foods (0.05-0.3 mg/kg) are out-of-date and may imply a dietary lead intake of 200 g/day, far higher than the FDA reference level (2.2 g/day). Collecting representative TDS data in high lead burden countries should be a priority. Further research is also recommended on upstream lead sources and pathways of lead uptake in plants, driving global food contamination.

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No effects of APOE ε4 on spatial navigation and broader cognition in young adults genetically at risk for Alzheimer's disease

Graichen, L. P.; Schenk, L.; Gausterer, C.; Wagner, I. C.

2026-07-15 neuroscience 10.64898/2026.07.10.737269 medRxiv
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Alzheimers disease (AD) causes progressive memory loss and disorientation. It is preceded by a prolonged preclinical phase marked by pathological changes in medial temporal lobe regions involved in spatial navigation. Spatial navigation tasks have been proposed for early AD detection, and altered navigation performance was reported in older carriers of the apolipoprotein E (APOE) {varepsilon}4 allele, the major genetic risk factor for sporadic AD. However, whether spatial navigation or other cognitive abilities are affected in younger {varepsilon}4 carriers remains unclear. Here, we genotyped 1000 healthy young adults (18-35 years) who completed the app-based navigation game "Sea Hero Quest" and several tasks assessing working memory, processing speed, executive functioning, and face recognition. {varepsilon}4 carriers ({varepsilon}3{varepsilon}4, N = 88) showed no significant differences from non-carriers ({varepsilon}3{varepsilon}3, N = 327) in spatial navigation or other cognitive abilities, supported by equivalence testing and Bayesian analyses. Exploratory findings suggested altered spatial navigation in {varepsilon}2 carriers ({varepsilon}2{varepsilon}2/{varepsilon}2{varepsilon}3/{varepsilon}2{varepsilon}4, Ns = 7/51/7) versus {varepsilon}3{varepsilon}3 controls, who stayed closer to environmental borders and showed better memory updating, face recognition, and processing speed. Therefore, APOE-related behavioural differences in young adults appear small at best, highlighting the need for paradigms sensitive to very subtle changes decades before potential dementia onset.

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Pediatric traumatic brain injury elicits acute neuroinflammation and long-term changes in social, cognitive, and decision-making behaviors in male and female rats

Smail, M. A.; McDonald, M. Y.; Boland, R.; Breach, M. R.; Dye, C. N.; McCloskey, J. E.; Martens, K. M.; Walters, A. E.; Zaleta Lastra, A.; Roush, J.; Yeung, E.; Weinstein, A.; Gorman-Sandler, E.; Vonder Haar, C.; Kokiko-Cochran, O. N.; Lenz, K. M.

2026-07-15 neuroscience 10.64898/2026.07.09.737495 medRxiv
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Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is one of the leading causes of emergency room visits in children under 10. Children are potentially more vulnerable to the adverse effects of TBI, given that their brains are still developing at the time of injury. Indeed, early life TBI has been linked to cognitive, social, and mood-related impairments later in life. The neuroimmune system has been implicated in adult TBI mechanisms and plays numerous key roles in brain development, making it an interesting candidate for linking pediatric TBI and prolonged behavioral alterations. Here we establish a rat model of mild pediatric TBI to investigate the relationship between early life TBI, acute responses of neuroimmune cells, and chronic behavioral dysregulation. At postnatal day 15, which is roughly equivalent to toddler age, male and female rat pups received a TBI via lateral fluid percussion injury. At 3 days post injury, TBI increased microglia and astrocyte coverage locally in the Perilesional Cortex but not in more distant corticolimbic regions. However, the hippocampus and prefrontal cortex did exhibit increased expression of the phagocytic marker CD68 in microglia, suggesting widespread glial activation even in the absence of gross coverage change. TBI also impacted mast cells, early-response innate immune cells, increasing their number and degranulation in multiple regions. In the juvenile and early adult periods, TBI impaired cognitive function, reduced sociability, and increased avoidance, with no change in anxiety-like behavior. Later in adulthood, TBI continued to impact cognitive behavior, increasing risky decision-making and impairing optimization months after injury. Together, these results suggest that pediatric TBI causes lasting cognitive and social dysregulation, possibly via acute neuroimmune alterations following injury at a critical period of brain development.

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Integrative computational toxicology reveals PFOS and PFHxS associated inflammatory keratinocyte niches in psoriasis through exposure transcriptomics, single-cell spatial mapping and token-aware virtual perturbation

Ma, J.; Yu, Q.

2026-07-15 bioinformatics 10.64898/2026.07.09.737426 medRxiv
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Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are persistent toxicants with immunological, metabolic and epithelial effects, but their relevance to inflammatory skin disease remains unclear. We developed a computational toxicology framework to test whether perfluoroalkyl sulfonate programs, especially perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) and perfluorohexanesulfonic acid (PFHxS), converge with psoriasis-associated keratinocyte inflammation. Exposure transcriptomes were derived from GSE236956, in which human embryonic stem cell-derived epithelial-lineage models were exposed to 10 M PFAS for 8-16 days. Six PFAS were prioritized using descriptors, Tanimoto similarity, toxicology evidence, adverse outcome pathway (AOP)-like key events, exposure differentially expressed gene burden and read-across support. PFAS signatures were integrated with psoriasis bulk transcriptomes, single-cell RNA sequencing, keratinocyte-state mapping, regulator and communication inference, spatial transcriptomics and token-aware Geneformer-compatible virtual perturbation. PFOS ranked highest in integrated prioritization, followed by PFHxS and perfluorooctanoic acid. PFHxS produced a smaller but directionally informative signature within a PFOS-dominant perfluoroalkyl sulfonate footprint. The shared PFOS and PFHxS program converged with psoriasis through inflammatory keratinocyte, epidermal-stress, cytoskeletal and lipid-related modules. Single-cell and spatial analyses localized the program to activated keratinocytes and inflammatory epidermal niches, with strong spatial co-localization with inflammatory keratinocyte and epidermal stress scores. Virtual perturbation prioritized S100A9, S100A8, KRT16, IL36G, CCL20, CXCL8, FABP5, KRT17, FOS, JUN and NFKBIZ as candidate effectors. These findings support an exposure-informed, experimentally testable hypothesis linking persistent perfluoroalkyl sulfonate programs to keratinocyte inflammatory niches in psoriasis.

8
Machine learning and data-driven models for predicting post-stroke dysphagia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Mohammadi Yazdi, S.; Motevaselian, M.; Khatami, S.; Radfar, N.; jourahmad, z.; Perez, H. A.

2026-07-17 neurology 10.64898/2026.07.15.26358113 medRxiv
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Background: Post-stroke dysphagia (PSD) contributes to aspiration, pneumonia, malnutrition, prolonged hospitalization and mortality. We evaluated the discrimination, validity and readiness of machine learning and data-driven prediction models for PSD-related outcomes. Methods: Following a prospectively registered protocol (PROSPERO CRD420261419259), we searched PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science Core Collection, CINAHL and CENTRAL from inception through June 7, 2026. Eligible studies developed or validated multivariable prediction models for PSD-related outcomes in adults with stroke. We used PROBAST and PROBAST+AI to assess risk of bias and applicability and TRIPOD+AI to evaluate reporting. Area under the curve (AUC) estimates were pooled on the logit scale with random-effects models. Results: Twenty-four studies were included and ten contributed to meta-analysis. Four studies predicting early or incident PSD yielded a pooled AUC of 0.94 (95% CI 0.60-0.99; I2 = 95.6%). Pooled AUCs were 0.84 (95% CI 0.71-0.92) for aspiration or penetration-aspiration and 0.89 (95% CI 0.24-1.00) for severe dysphagia. The exploratory analysis of all ten risk-prediction models produced an AUC of 0.90 (95% CI 0.80-0.95), but heterogeneity was substantial (I2 = 90.3%) and the prediction interval was 0.51-0.99. Every study had high risk of bias because of analysis-domain concerns; calibration and external validation were uncommon. Conclusions: Reported discrimination was often high, but the evidence does not establish reliable performance in care. Independent validation, calibration, complete model reporting and clinical-impact studies are needed before these models guide post-stroke swallowing care. Keywords: Post-stroke dysphagia; Stroke; Deglutition disorders; Machine learning; Clinical prediction model; Area under the curve; Meta-analysis

9
An ancestry-matched Mendelian randomisation analysis of kidney function and heart failure subtypes in African ancestry populations

Gaye, N. D.; Diawara, A.

2026-07-17 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.07.15.26358145 medRxiv
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Chronic kidney disease and heart failure disproportionately burden populations of African ancestry, yet Mendelian randomisation (MR) studies of the causal relationship between kidney function and heart failure subtypes have been conducted exclusively in European ancestry populations. We performed a forward two-sample MR analysis to evaluate the causal effect of genetically predicted estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) on heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) in individuals of African ancestry. Genetic instruments were selected from an African ancestry eGFR genome-wide association study (N = 67,943) at genome-wide significance, with linkage disequilibrium clumping using an African ancestry reference panel. Heart failure subtype summary statistics were obtained from the Million Veteran Program (HFpEF: 5,379 cases / 113,041 controls; HFrEF: 9,104 cases / 109,632 controls). Six independent SNPs (F-statistics 30.5 &#8211 107.3; R&#178 = 0.62%) were retained as instruments. The primary inverse-variance weighted analysis provided no evidence of a causal effect of eGFR on HFpEF (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.80 &#8211 1.06, p = 0.248) or HFrEF (OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.78 &#8211 1.23, p = 0.878). Sensitivity analyses were directionally consistent. There was no evidence of heterogeneity or directional pleiotropy. Minimum detectable effects at 80% power were OR 1.28 for HFpEF and OR 1.22 for HFrEF. These null findings should be interpreted as inconclusive given current power constraints; larger ancestry-matched studies are needed.

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Association between serum CEA levels and ctDNA-detected Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor mutations in lung adenocarcinoma

Roy, S.; Soroar, M. K. I.; Ara, H.; Nur, S. A.; Akanda, R. A.; Saha, S.; Alam, M. M.

2026-07-17 oncology 10.64898/2026.07.14.26358115 medRxiv
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Background with objective: Detecting EGFR mutations is critical for treating lung adenocarcinoma with highly effective targeted therapies. However, standard genetic testing is expensive, complex, and often unavailable in resource-limited settings like Bangladesh. Because elevated serum CEA has been linked to these genetic alterations, it could serve as an accessible screening tool. This study aims to evaluate the association between serum CEA levels and EGFR mutation status to determine if routine CEA testing can reliably predict these mutations and guide treatment. Methodology: In this cross-sectional analytical study, we recruited 58 patients with histologically confirmed treatment naive lung adenocarcinoma. The presence of EGFR mutations in the ctDNA was determined via ARMS (Amplification Refractory Mutation System) PCR. Patient data was statistically analyzed to assess the diagnostic correlation between serum CEA levels and the presence of EGFR mutations. Result: The overall EGFR mutation rate was 43.1% with exon 19 deletion (48%) and exon 21 mutations (44%) were the predominant types. Median serum CEA levels were significantly higher in patients with EGFR mutations compared to wild-type cases (14.6 ng/ml vs 2.8 ng/ml, p<0.001). A multivariate analysis revealed a 14% increased likelihood of an EGFR mutation for 1 ng/ml rise in serum CEA. Furthermore, serum CEA showed strong diagnostic accuracy for ctDNA samples at a 6.39 ng/ml cut-off (AUC 0.82, sensitivity 68.0%, specificity 84.8%). Conclusion: Serum CEA is a valuable, cost-effective, and non-invasive biomarker demonstrating significantly higher levels and strong diagnostic accuracy in EGFR-mutated lung adenocarcinoma compared to wild-type cases.

11
How Do Nurses Make Clinical Decisions Via Remote Reviews: A Convergent Mixed-Methods Study

Zhang, Y.; Sutherland, S.; GREENWAY, K.; Stayt, L.

2026-07-17 nursing 10.64898/2026.07.15.26357946 medRxiv
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Abstract Background: Remote clinical reviews have become an integral component of contemporary nursing practice across community and acute care settings. Nurses increasingly make autonomous clinical decisions using telephone, video, and online/digital systems, often with limited sensory information and under conditions of uncertainty. However, empirical understanding of how nurses make clinical decisions via remote reviews remains limited. Aim: To explore and understand how registered nurses (RNs) make clinical decisions about patient care via remote reviews. Methods: A convergent mixed-methods design was employed. Quantitative data (analytic quantitative sample N=53) were collected using validated questionnaires that measured decision-making processes, physician-nurse collaboration, decision-making stress, and perceived decision-making ability. Qualitative data (N=23) were generated through semi-structured interviews. Data collection took place between October 2024 and April 2025. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics, correlation, and multiple regression. Qualitative data were analysed using framework analysis. Integration was achieved through pillar-building and theory-driven synthesis and illustrated by joint display tables. Results: Most nurses demonstrated a flexible decision-making style, integrating analytical and intuitive reasoning. Both analytical and intuitive processes were positively associated with perceived decision-making ability. Physician-nurse collaboration emerged as a strong predictor of decision-making confidence, while decision-related stress was not a significant predictor. Qualitative findings identified three themes: characteristics of remote review; making adaptive decisions shaped by both internal and external constraints and enablers; and external influencing factors. The integrated findings informed a theory-informed ICE framework to illustrate how nurses make clinical decisions via remote reviews. Conclusion: Remote clinical decision-making is a dynamic cognitive-environmental process rather than a purely individual cognitive act. The ICE framework conceptualises this interaction, extending existing decision-making theories to digitally mediated care. Impact: Understanding remote decision-making supports training design, clinical governance, and the development of Artificial Intelligence-enhanced decision-support tools grounded in ecological bounded rationality. Patient or Public Contribution: Patient and public representatives contributed to stakeholder discussions that informed the development of the interview topic guide and the theoretical model. Patients or members of the public were not involved in recruitment, data collection, analysis, interpretation of findings, or preparation of the manuscript. Keywords: clinical decision-making, remote reviews, telehealth, nursing, mixed methods, ecological bounded rationality

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Reconsidering the case against risk prediction in self-harm: routinely collected health data distinguishes groups at higher and lower risk of adverse outcomes following paracetamol overdose

Oxley, J.; Schölin, L.; Brennan, G.; Anand, A.; Brett, J.; Eddleston, M.; Humphries, C.

2026-07-17 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.07.15.26358127 medRxiv
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Background. UK clinical guidance recommends that structured risk prediction tools and risk stratification should not be used in self-harm, to predict suicide or determine who is offered treatment. Underpinning this position is the premise that routinely collected health data contain no useful predictive signal, which has received little direct scrutiny. Objective. To test whether routinely collected electronic health record data can distinguish groups at higher and lower risk of severe outcomes following paracetamol overdose. Methods. We analysed 4,095 adults presenting to NHS Lothian emergency departments with paracetamol overdose (2017-2023). Elastic-net logistic regression was fitted to 37 routinely collected electronic health record features to predict a composite of death or mental health inpatient admission at 0-7, 8-30 and 31-365 days following attendance, evaluated on a held-out 20% test set with bootstrapping. Findings. Events occurred in 5.5% of patients at 0-7 days, 2.0% at 8-30 days and 7.9% at 31-365 days, dominated by mental health admission. Bootstrap AUROC 95% confidence intervals lay above 0.5 in every window (0.65-0.82, 0.63-0.90, 0.71-0.85): models ranked patients better than chance. Calibration slopes (1.04, 1.14, 1.07) were close to one. Ranking drew primarily on mental health-related features. Conclusions. Routinely collected health data carried predictive signal for severe outcomes after paracetamol overdose, although discrimination fell short of what is needed for individual-level clinical use. Clinical implications. These models are not proposed for clinical deployment; however, treating risk prediction as a settled question will redirect research efforts, potentially excluding this patient population from machine learning advances driving improvements in care in other medical specialties.

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Comparing different neuroimaging modalities for quantification of the cholinergic system in Parkinson's disease

d'Angremont, E.; Marschall, T. M.; Renken, R. J.; Sommer, I. E.

2026-07-17 neurology 10.64898/2026.07.15.26357522 medRxiv
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Introduction Parkinson's disease (PD) is a multifactorial disorder, affecting multiple neurotransmitter systems, including the cholinergic system. Cholinergic denervation is heterogeneous across patients and difficult to predict based on clinical presentation. In this study, we assessed the sensitivity of structural MRI (sMRI) and functional MRI (fMRI) to cholinergic degeneration related to PD and to cognitive functioning in PD. We compared our results to results from previously reported [18F]Fluoroethoxybenzovesamicol ([18F]FEOBV) PET imaging, which is considered the gold standard for cholinergic imaging. Methods 34 PD patients and 10 healthy controls underwent structural T1-weighted MRI. A subset of 14 patients and 9 controls also underwent resting-state fMRI. We extracted the bilateral volumes of the nucleus basalis of Meynert (NBM) from the sMRI images. Functional connectivity (FC) from the NBM to the cortex (NBM-FC) was determined using fMRI data. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to reduce the dimensionality of the NBM-FC images. We assessed performances for NBM-FC in distinguishing patients from controls using stepwise logistic regression. Similarly, NBM volume was used using logistic regression. Furthermore, the relation between these measures and cognitive function in several domains was investigated with (stepwise) linear regression. Leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV) and bootstrapping was performed to assess robustness of the results. Results NBM-FC was well able to discriminate patients from controls with an AUC of 0.84 (95% CI: 0.62-1). NBM volume showed lower performance, but was still better than chance: AUC: 0.75 (95% CI: 0.57-0.93). Significant correlations were found between 1) cognition in the attentional domain and NBM-FC (r=0.63; p=.015) and 2) global cognition and NBM volume (r=0.55, p=.001). These results were inferior to those previously reported using [18F]FEOBV tracer uptake (see Chapter 6). Bootstrapping revealed that NBM volume of only the left hemisphere was stably related to PD diagnosis and global cognition in PD patients. We found that a lower NBM-FC in specific brain areas, including the fusiform gyrus, supramarginal gyrus and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, was related to PD diagnosis. Bootstrapping revealed no stable NBM-FC pattern related to attention. Conclusion Although MRI results were slightly inferior to [18F]FEOBV PET data, MRI may provide a cheaper and more widely available alternative for cholinergic imaging. We recommend testing the utility of MRI as predictor and monitor of cholinergic treatment effect in a longitudinal study.

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Rest-Activity Rhythm Variability Across Clinical Episodes of Bipolar Disorder: Standalone Biomarker or Statistical Artifact?

Konicarova, C.-A.; Schneider, J.; Spaniel, F.; Kolenic, M.; Alda, M.; Bakstein, E.

2026-07-17 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.07.15.26358139 medRxiv
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Background: Actigraphy-derived rest-activity rhythm (RAR) features are widely used to characterize clinical states in bipolar disorder (BD). Both mean levels and temporal variability of these features have been associated with mood episodes; however, variability measures are often statistically coupled with the mean, particularly in skewed distributions. This raises a question as to whether variability reflects a separate characteristic of the data or whether the observed association arises from statistical properties of the data. Objective: In this study, we aim to determine whether temporal variability of actigraphy-derived RAR features provides standalone information on mood episodes in BD beyond mean activity levels after accounting for mean-variance dependence. Methods: We analyzed actigraphy data from a subset of 72 participants with BD drawn from a larger longitudinal study, extracting 22 daily RAR features aggregated weekly as sample mean (MEAN) and within-week temporal variability computed as sample standard deviation (VAR). Variance-stabilizing transformations (Box-Cox or Yeo-Johnson) were applied to the entire study cohort to reduce mean-variance dependence. Associations with mood episodes and remission (mania: n=34; depression: n=58 annotated participants) were evaluated using generalized linear mixed-effects models with a logistic link function, including univariate (MEAN or VAR) and multivariate (MEAN+VAR) specifications, assessed by likelihood-based metrics and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: Transformations reduced mean-absolute correlations from 0.43 to below 0.06. Temporal variability remained significantly associated with clinical state for 11/22 RAR features in mania and 16/22 features in depression, with all significant associations remaining after false discovery rate correction (p<0.05). Joint models showed modest incremental gains (AUC 3%-4% overall; up to 12% in mania, 7% in depression), with absolute performance remaining limited (AUC 0.50-0.66). In both mania and depression, nearly all significant variability-based regressors contributed incremental information beyond mean-based models. Only sleep duration and activity changes around wake time (+-1 hour), did not improve discrimination between mania and remission. Conclusions: Temporal variability in RAR features can be considered a standalone state marker of mood episodes not captured by mean activity. We found it to be more consistently associated with depression than mania. Its incremental discriminative contribution is modest, suggesting greater utility within multivariate or multimodal frameworks.

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Elevated BrainAGE precedes cognitive impairment and improves prediction of future cognitive decline

Moradi, E.; Dahnke, R.; Gaser, C.; Rikkonen, T.; Kroger, H.; Vaananen, S.; Solomon, A.; Sund, R.; Tohka, J.

2026-07-17 health informatics 10.64898/2026.07.15.26358150 medRxiv
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Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) derived brain age varies substantially between individuals, but it remains unclear whether early deviations from normal brain ageing precede future cognitive decline and whether they provide predictive value beyond conventional MRI measures. Here, we investigated whether MRI-derived brain age gap estimation (BrainAGE) identifies early structural brain ageing differences among cognitively normal individuals who later develop mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or dementia. We analysed longitudinal structural MRI data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) and replicated the main findings in the population-based Kuopio Osteoporosis Risk Factor and Prevention Study (OSTPRE). Individuals who later converted to MCI or dementia had higher BrainAGE values several years before diagnosis and, in ADNI, showed steeper longitudinal increases than stable individuals. Elevated BrainAGE values were also associated with increased risk of future conversion to MCI in cognitively healthy individuals and faster subsequent memory decline. Cross-sectional differences and the association between BrainAGE and risk of future conversion were replicated in OSTPRE. Importantly, adding BrainAGE to models including demographic, APOE4, cognitive, and MRI-derived measures consistently improved prediction of future cognitive outcomes, with the greatest benefit observed for individuals who converted after longer follow-up. These findings show that structural brain ageing begins to diverge years before the onset of MCI. BrainAGE captures this early divergence, providing complementary information beyond conventional structural MRI measures that may improve the early identification of cognitively normal individuals at increased risk of future cognitive decline when integrated with other biomarkers.

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Microvascular Thrombosis and Acute Kidney Injury in COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Quantitative Analysis

Duarte, C. A.; Uscocovich, V. S. M.; Misael, I.; Duarte, P. D. A. C.; Sestito, E. B.; Da SIlva, P. N.

2026-07-17 nephrology 10.64898/2026.07.14.26357748 medRxiv
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Abstract Objective: To synthesize the available evidence on the association between SARS-CoV-2-related microvascular thrombosis and acute kidney injury (AKI), with emphasis on renal outcomes, mortality, and renal replacement therapy requirements. Methods: This systematic review followed the PRISMA 2020 statement and was prospectively registered in PROSPERO (CRD420251132701). PubMed/MEDLINE, Scopus, and Embase were searched for systematic reviews, including meta-analyses, and umbrella reviews investigating the association between SARS-CoV-2-related microvascular thrombosis and acute kidney injury. Two reviewers independently performed study selection, data extraction, and methodological quality assessment using AMSTAR-2 and ROBIS. Evidence was synthesized through a structured narrative synthesis supported by quantitative data extracted from the included reviews. Results: Six evidence syntheses evaluating kidney involvement, thrombotic events, and microvascular mechanisms in COVID-19 were included. AKI incidence was 9.2% (95%CI 4.6-13.9) among hospitalized patients and 32.6% (95%CI 8.5-56.6) among critically ill patients. In children with multisystem inflammatory syndrome associated with SARS-CoV-2, AKI incidence was 20% (95%CI 14-28). Microvascular or thrombotic events were associated with adverse renal outcomes (OR 2.14; 95%CI 1.32-3.48). AKI was associated with increased mortality (OR 4.68; 95%CI 1.06-20.70) and greater likelihood of renal replacement therapy requirement (OR 2.87; 95%CI 1.45-5.68). The certainty of evidence ranged from moderate to high for the principal outcomes. Conclusion: Current evidence supports an important association between microvascular thrombotic injury and COVID-19-associated AKI. These findings reinforce the relevance of endothelial dysfunction and thromboinflammatory pathways in kidney involvement during COVID-19 and highlight the need for early renal monitoring, risk stratification, and kidney-protective strategies in high-risk patients. Keywords: COVID-19; Acute Kidney Injury; Microvascular Thrombosis; SARS-CoV-2; Renal Replacement Therapy; Systematic Review

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Photobiomodulation promotes wound healing and functional improvement following lumbar decompression surgery: a double-blinded, placebo-controlled study

Rivera, J.; Zhou, Y.; Sak, L.; Pudewa, F.; Lee, J.; Yamamoto, M. T.; Yoo, H.; Lum, M.; Zhang, M.; Patel, A.; Vandenberghe, L. E.; Fenn, S. K.; Wang, Y.; Bailey, B.; Holley, S. M.; Vivas, A. C.; Holly, L. T.; Lu, D. C.

2026-07-17 surgery 10.64898/2026.07.15.26357882 medRxiv
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Objective: Photobiomodulation therapy has emerged as a promising modality to facilitate scar healing and pain management in dermatology and plastic surgery. However, its role in postoperative care following spine surgeries remains understudied. This double-blinded, placebo-controlled study aimed to investigate the effects of photobiomodulation in patients with chronic lower back pain undergoing lumbar decompression, with postoperative wound healing as the primary outcome and pain reduction and functional recovery as secondary outcomes. Methods: Patients were randomized to receive either active photobiomodulation braces (N=13) or placebo braces (N=12). Follow-up assessments were performed at 2, 4, 6, 8, and 12 weeks postoperatively. Outcomes included wound healing (Stony Brook Scar Evaluation Scale), back and leg pain (Visual Analog Scale), quality of life (EuroQol 5D), and functional status (Oswestry Disability Index). Results: Compared to the placebo group, the photobiomodulation treatment group had a 4.12-fold cumulative improvement in final scar scores, with significant between-group differences at postoperative weeks 6, 8, and 12 (p = 0.0062, 0.010, 0.042). Among patients with severe preoperative disability, treatment resulted in a 1.89-fold faster improvement in back pain (p=0.025) and a 1.80-fold faster improvement in ODI scores (p=0.025); and superior treatment effect on wound healing were again observed at weeks 6, 8, and 12. Among patients with poor initial scars, treatment led to a significantly better scar outcome than placebo at week 6 and a 1.94-fold faster EQ5D improvement (p=0.052), with significant gains observed as early as two weeks after surgery. There were no adverse events associated with photobiomodulation treatment. Conclusions: Photobiomodulation significantly promoted postoperative wound healing following lumbar decompression surgery, with therapeutic benefits preserved even in patients with poor baseline scar scores and functional impairment. This indicates that the efficacy of photobiomodulation is not limited by the initial scar condition or disability, supporting its broad clinical applicability. Additionally, patients with severe preoperative disability experienced greater benefits from photobiomodulation than placebo, including faster reduction in back pain and more rapid improvement in functional capacity, highlighting its role in postoperative pain management and rehabilitation. These therapeutic effects are likely mediated by photobiomodulation-induced reduction of inflammation and enhancement of tissue repair. Together, this study suggests that photobiomodulation can be a promising adjunct therapy to facilitate postoperative recovery in patients undergoing spine surgery.

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PARIS (Pneumonia: Acute Respiratory Infection +/- Sepsis): a prospective single-centre observational cohort study of hospitalised patients with pneumonia

Nasser, S. T.; Piercy, C. R.; Falinska, A.; O'Sullivan, D. M.; Devonshire, A.; Martinez-Estrada, F.; Huggett, J.; Creagh-Brown, B. C.

2026-07-17 respiratory medicine 10.64898/2026.07.15.26357955 medRxiv
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Introduction Hospitalised community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is heterogeneous in aetiology, severity, and outcome. Phenotyping and endotyping approaches offer potential to stratify patients biologically and guide targeted therapy, but require well-characterised cohorts with linked biosamples. We describe the PARIS (Pneumonia: Acute Respiratory Infection +/- Sepsis) study: a prospective observational cohort of hospitalised patients with pneumonia, designed to characterise functional outcomes and to provide a biobank for translational immunological research. Methods Adults admitted with CAP to a single NHS district general hospital were enrolled within 24 hours of admission between December 2020 and March 2022. Clinical, functional, and physiological data were collected at enrolment, hospital discharge, and 6-8 week follow-up. Serial blood samples were collected for flow cytometry, transcriptomics, pathogen DNA detection, and plasma biobanking. Results Forty-seven patients were enrolled (15 without and 32 with sepsis [SOFA >=2] at enrolment); 87% met sepsis criteria by 24 hours post enrolment. Most patients (30/47, 64%) were managed as COVID-19, microbiologically confirmed in 27. Mean age was 57 years (SD 16), 70% were male, and baseline comorbidity burden was low. Severity was moderate (median NEWS2 4 at enrolment, rising to 6 by 24 hours post enrolment; p<0.001). Mortality was 4/47 (8.5%), with 44/47 (94%) alive at hospital discharge. Median length of stay was 8 days (IQR 5.5-11). Translational samples were collected from the majority: fresh flow cytometry (44/47, 94%), transcriptomics from the sepsis subgroup (31/32, 97%), pathogen DNA sampling (35 samples received across study timepoints; see Table 5), and stored plasma (29/47, 62%). The primary outcome of functional decline (Barthel score decrease >=1.85) occurred in only 1/29 patients with paired assessments (3.4%). Persistent CRP elevation (>3 mg/L) at 6-8 week follow-up was present in 16/31 (52%) survivors with available data. Conclusions The PARIS cohort provides a well-characterised clinical platform and linked biobank to support translational studies of pneumonia and sepsis. The low rate of functional decline reflects the younger, lower-comorbidity, COVID-predominant population recruited. Primary protocol endpoints were not achieved owing to pandemic-related disruption. Data and samples underpin a programme of linked translational studies.

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Portable Ultra-Low Field MRI Deep-Learning Algorithms for White Matter Lesion Segmentation Improve Accuracy and Reflect Clinical Disability in Multiple Sclerosis

Thommana, A. A.; Donnay, C. A.; Norato, G.; Gaitan, M. I.; Griffanti, L.; Nair, G.; Reich, D. S.; Okar, S. V.

2026-07-17 neurology 10.64898/2026.07.15.26357954 medRxiv
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White matter lesion (WML) identification, assessment, and characterization using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are fundamental for diagnosis and monitoring of multiple sclerosis (MS). Portable ultra-low field (pULF) MRI at 64 millitesla (mT) has been shown to visualize WML with at least one dimension greater than 4 mm. An automated WML segmentation tool catered to pULF-MRI can provide standardized and accurate quantitative measurements of WML volume. In this study, we sought to investigate and compare the accuracy of machine-learning (ML) and deep-learning (DL) pULF MRI segmentation tools. Same-day paired pULF (64mT) and high-field (HF, 3T) MRI scans from 84 adults with MS or suspected-MS (mean age {+/-} SD: 48 {+/-} 13, 62 females) included T2-FLAIR and T1w images. Reference WML segmentations were manually annotated on pULF T2-FLAIR for all scans, with WML confirmed with registered HF T2-FLAIR. HF reference WML segmentations were created. Four automated segmentation methods were applied to pULF scans: Method for Inter-Modal Segmentation Analysis (MIMoSA), an ML algorithm trained on HF WML masks; WMH-SynthSeg, a convolutional neural network model with flexible segmentation capabilities across field strengths and resolution; nnU-Net, a DL algorithm trained on pULF reference WML masks; and Pseudo-Label Assisted nnU-Net (PLAn), a DL algorithm pre-trained on HF reference WML masks and refined with 64mT reference WML masks. Two models were trained with nnU-Net, one using T2-FLAIR images only (nnU-Net-FL) and one using T1w and T2-FLAIR images (nnU-Net-FL/T1). The same was done with PLAn, creating PLAn-FL and PLAn-FL/T1. The six automated WML segmentation outputs were compared to the manual segmentations to determine Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC) scores. Associations of WML volume estimates with clinical measures were investigated. DSC scores with pULF reference WML masks from PLAn-FL (DSC mean {+/-} SD: 0.50 {+/-} 0.24) outperformed MIMoSA (0.24 {+/-} 0.20, p < 0.0001), WMH-SynthSeg (0.30 {+/-} 0.18, p < 0.0001), nnU-Net-FL (0.41 {+/-} 0.24, p < 0.0001), and nnU-Net-FL/T1 (0.41 {+/-} 0.26, p = 0.0004). Worse Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) and Scripps Neurologic Rating Scale (SNRS) scores were correlated with higher WML volumes in the pULF and HF reference masks. They were also correlated with WML volumes derived from WHM-SynthSeg, nnU-Net-FL, nnU-Net-FL/T1, PLAn-FL, and PLAn-FL/T1, but not MIMoSA. After adjusting for age, WHM-SynthSeg, nnU-Net FL, nnU-Net-FL/T1, PLAn-FL, and PLAn-FL/T1 had significant associations with EDSS and SNRS scores. nnU-Net and PLAn performed best in segmenting WML on pULF-MRI at 64 mT, providing accurate quantitative estimates of WML burden. Moreover, WML volumes estimated by these algorithms were associated with clinical measures of disability, underscoring their utility for reflecting clinical and radiological disease severity. Given pULF-MRI's mobility and lower cost, these findings highlight its relevance in clinical trials, particularly in involving more participants who face logistical constraints and barriers.

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Comparing Human and Large Language Model Responses to Patients Online Questions: Towards Multi-dimensional Patient-centered Support

Hussein, M. A.; Doshi, R.; He, L.; Reynolds, T.

2026-07-17 health informatics 10.64898/2026.07.15.26355314 medRxiv
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Patients and caregivers seek informational and emotional support throughout medical care, especially when interpreting unfamiliar laboratory test results. Although resources such as patient portals and online health communities (OHCs) help address questions, gaps remain. The emergence of large language models (LLMs) offers the potential to be a complementary source of support to assist patients and caregivers in understanding and using their test results. The objective of our study is to empirically compare LLM responses to patients online questions containing their laboratory test results to responses written by peers in an OHC. We compared the 519 peer replies to 122 laboratory test-related posts from an OHC to 488 responses generated from four LLMs using mixed computational and qualitative methods. LLMs frequently provided clear explanations of medical terminology and structured interpretations of numeric results but were longer and less readable. Peers offered more personalized, context-specific emotional support. Overall, LLMs have the potential to complement peer responses in OHCs, but require greater emotional depth, reasoning transparency, and alignment with community norms.