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Ecology

Wiley

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match Ecology's content profile, based on 85 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.07% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
Drought degrades riparian subsidy quality and constrains aquatic ecosystem functioning

Mohammadi, R. M.; Ruhi, A.

2026-07-13 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.10.737855 medRxiv
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The exchange of energy and organisms across habitat boundaries links aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems and sustains ecosystem functioning. Although disturbance may disrupt these linkages, the mechanisms at play remain poorly understood. Here, we investigated the extent to which flow intermittency may disrupt riparian-aquatic ecosystem linkages by altering consumer communities in the recipient ecosystem or by altering resource quality in the donor ecosystem. We ran an experiment in an intermittent river network in California, focusing on a critical forest-to-river subsidy (organic matter in the form of leaf litter), its transformation, and its reciprocal benefit (aquatic insect production). Using three riparian species (willow, cottonwood, and oak) at sites spanning a gradient of flow permanence, we quantified intraspecific plasticity in leaf traits (specific leaf area, nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, and {delta}13C), measured decomposition rates, and estimated the secondary production of aquatic shredders (Plecoptera). Across all leaf species, decomposition rates were 16-36% lower at intermittent than perennial sites, an effect largely driven by intraspecific leaf trait plasticity rather than changes in consumer abundance. At high flow intermittency, willow experienced water stress (enriched {delta}13C) and reduced specific leaf area, while cottonwood showed primarily stoichiometric responses (reduced leaf nitrogen and phosphorus). Despite these divergent strategies, all species produced lower-quality litter at intermittent sites. Variance partitioning confirmed that initial litter quality uniquely explained 51.5% of variation in decomposition rates, more than double the contribution of invertebrate community metrics; and structural equation modeling revealed that both leaf traits and stonefly (Plecoptera) secondary production significantly predicted decomposition rates, with leaf traits exerting the stronger effect. Notably, stonefly secondary production was 37-98% lower at intermittent sites across leaf species. Because these insects later emerge as terrestrial adults, they provide a significant energy flux to riparian predators, and, thus, impoverished litter quality suppresses the reciprocal transfer of energy back to terrestrial food webs. As drought intensifies globally, the decoupling of terrestrial-aquatic linkages may begin in the riparian canopy.

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Assessing the influence of edge effects on macrofaunal contributions to decomposition rates across forest-field ecotones.

Niles, T. E.; Taheri, C.; Buchkowski, R. W.

2026-06-25 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.24.734239 medRxiv
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Understanding the relationships between soil macrofauna and decomposition is crucial for predicting how land-use change impacts ecosystem function in fragmented systems. This is because soil macrofauna affect decomposition and also respond to the changes in abiotic conditions across habitat gradients. This study investigates edge effects on the macrofauna contributions to decomposition across forest-field ecotones. We used bait lamina assay to quantify aboveground and belowground feeding activity of soil macrofauna in Autumn 2025 in three deciduous forest-old field ecotones and one coniferous forest-old field ecotone, in Southwestern Ontario, Canada. Vegetation diversity and composition, LAI and soil characteristics (i.e., soil organic matter, pH, temperature and moisture) were measured at each plot along the ecotone. Pitfall trap data collected in Summer 2025 at the same sites were used to characterize macrofauna communities. We used generalized linear mixed effects models to estimate the effect of distance to edge, site, and depth into the soil on bait lamina consumption and soil macrofauna, with transect nested within site as random effects. Consumption activity increased with distance into the forest from the field, with the edge representing an intermediate; and, decreased with increasing depth into the soil. In contrast, soil macrofauna abundance, especially isopods, decrease with distance into the forest from the field. These trends varied significantly across sites, so that consumption activity and abundance sometimes remained constant across the ecotone (i.e., site x distance interaction). The results demonstrate that macrofaunal contributions to bait consumption varied along the ecotone, shaped by interacting environmental gradients and shifts in community composition unique to each site.

3
Herbivores and pathogens can modulate plant population responses to future climate conditions

Andrzejak, M.; Knight, T.; Korell, L.

2026-07-08 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.07.736959 medRxiv
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Climate change is expected to alter plant populations not only through direct environmental shifts but also via changes in biotic interactions, such as with herbivores and pathogens. As plant species are also expected to differ in their responses to both climate and antagonists, plant responses to both factors are expected to be variable and species-specific. To assess whether interactive effects of climate and antagonists on plant population dynamics are common and whether the strength and direction of plant responses vary across species, we conducted a multi-year field experiment that manipulated realistic climate change and experimentally reduced insect herbivores and fungal pathogens. We measured responses of plant vital rates, such as survivorship, growth, and reproduction across six grassland species. Using Integral Projection Models (IPMs) and Life Table Response Experiments (LTREs), we quantified changes in population growth rate across experimental treatments and the contribution of each vital rate to that observed change. Two of the study species declined so drastically over the course of the experiment that demographic quantification of population growth rates was not possible. From the remaining species, Bromus erectus and Plantago lanceolata show significant interactive responses of climate and antagonist reduction on population growth rates. In contrast, Dianthus carthusianorum and Tragopogon orientalis showed limited responses to experimental treatments. Notably, our results indicate that in some species biotic interactions may amplify the effects of climate change: the presence of plant antagonists exacerbates the negative effects of the future climate treatment on plant population dynamics. Our findings highlight the complexity in predicting plant population responses to climate change and provide insights for grassland management under future environmental conditions.

4
Trait-dependent species responses weaken the effects of response diversity on community stability

Heinrichs, A. L.; Polazzo, F.; Kunze, C.; Ghedini, G.

2026-06-27 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.26.734835 medRxiv
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The diversity of species responses to environmental change (response diversity) is a key mechanism of ecological stability. However, anticipating where strong or weak stabilizing responses emerge is challenging because species responses can depend on the local community and the specific stability metric. Whether species traits can consistently inform on how species respond to disturbances, enabling less context-dependent predictions, remains an open question. To address this gap, we use microcosm experiments on marine phytoplankton to test how response diversity supports multiple aspects of community stability under pulse temperature changes, testing both an increase (heatwave) and a decrease in temperature (coldspell). We then map species traits to their responses in a community to identify which traits modulate and predict species' sensitivities. Fundamental response diversity, based on the diversity of species responses to temperature measured in isolation, was a weak predictor of community stability, and relationships differed between disturbances (i.e., heatwave and coldspell). Instead, species traits were consistent predictors of species responses in communities. Small, fast-growing species were more tolerant and benefited from the disturbance, while large, slow-growing species were less tolerant and decreased in proportion - these patterns were consistent across disturbances and community compositions. These results suggest that strong trait-performance relationships might reduce the importance of response diversity for stability. But these findings also show that general species traits, such as size and growth rate, can predict which species, and how, contribute to community responses, providing an empirical basis to relate species traits to stability outcomes under climate change.

5
Assessing planktivorous fish as vectors of a plankton parasite

Lampadaridis, N. D.; Herrera-Castillo, C. M.; Ebert, D.

2026-07-10 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.09.737450 medRxiv
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Predators are often considered regulators of disease in prey populations, a concept central to the "healthy herd hypothesis". This hypothesis suggests that by preferentially removing infected individuals, predators can reduce parasite prevalence. However, predators may also act as disease vectors, facilitating the spread of parasites. We investigated whether stickleback fish (Gasterosteus aculeatus) can act as vectors for the transmission of the obligate bacterial parasite Pasteuria ramosa to its Daphnia host, a widespread freshwater zooplanktor. We fed infected D. magna to sticklebacks, and subsequently analysed faecal samples for the presence, viability, and infectivity of parasite transmission stages (= spores). We recovered approximately 60% of the consumed spores from fish faeces and these spores did not suffer from reduced infectivity to D. magna. Additionally, spores associated with sloppy feeding did not reduce infection rates. Thus, consumption of infected hosts by fish does not eliminate the parasite, but in contrary, may contribute to the spread and persistence of P. ramosa in natural populations, potentially influencing parasite dynamics in natural freshwater ecosystems.

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Population and community variability deviate from stationary expectations during transient dynamics

Guerber, J.; Genettais, D.; Fontaine, C.; Thebault, E.

2026-07-09 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.08.737188 medRxiv
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Under complex perturbation regimes, biodiversity dynamics show temporal variability in species and community abundance around long-term population trends. Many species indeed show long-term declines while other species increase, putting natural communities far from stationary regimes, while variability is often studied near equilibrium. We contribute to bridging this gap by investigating population and community variability during long-term trends caused by press perturbations in stochastic models of population dynamics. By estimating the deterministic changes in mean and variance during the transient regime, we show that population variability deviates from stationary expectations. Moreover, the deviation strongly depends on the sign of the population trends: increases generate excesses of variability while declines generate deficits. Scaling up to community variability, we propose a decomposition of community variability deviation, allowing to highlight that community variability in the transient regime depends on how the press perturbation is distributed within species relative abundances and growth rates. These results challenge the equilibrium assumption and open new perspectives for the study of the variability of ecological systems under multiple perturbation types.

7
Individual-level traits outweigh neighborhood and landscape level factors for frugivorous insect parasites in small forest patches

Back, T. C.; Miller, N. R.; Yang, S.

2026-06-25 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.24.734278 medRxiv
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Frugivorous insect larvae are dependent on fruiting plants for development, leading to complex host-parasite interactions that may be influenced by many factors at various scales. We compared the relative effects of factors at the individual, neighborhood, and landscape scales in forest patches. Our results suggest that in areas like upstate New York, where agricultural land uses are dominant, individual scale factors are the most influential. Specifically, parasitism increased with host fruit crop size, but was not associated with host species richness or proximity to forest edge. Notably, the most parasitized hosts were non-native species, including Frangula alnus Mill. (Glossy Buckthorn), indicating a potential role of invasive species to shape host-parasite interactions in our system. Our results underscore the importance of host-specific traits in structuring parasitism patterns and suggest management could consider both the ecological context of host traits and the influence of invasive species at multiple scales.

8
Ecological drivers of social complexity: the role of predation risk and nesting resource in group-living cichlid

Yoshio, Y.; Takada, Y.; Hidaka, R.; Inoue, R.; Kambe, K.; Satoh, S.

2026-06-26 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.26.734653 medRxiv
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Understanding how social complexity responds to environmental variation remains a longstanding challenge in evolutionary biology. Here, we investigated the drivers of social complexity using intraspecific social variation across seven locations of the obligatory shell-brooding cichlid Neolamprologus meeli in Lake Tanganyika. We quantified the number of subordinate individuals per female territory and examined the effects of predation risk, shell availability, and their interaction. Social complexity increased with shell availability under high predation risk but showed little association under low predation risk. A field manipulative-experiment further demonstrated that increasing shell availability led to higher juvenile retention, indicating a causal effect of territory quality. In addition, removal of subordinates reduced shell availability, suggesting the feedback between group size and territory maintenance. We also assessed genetic population structure based on nuclear SNPs obtained by MIG-seq and found only weak genetic differentiation among localities, suggesting that the observed social variation is unlikely to simply reflect strong genetic subdivision. Together, these results show that predation risk promotes group living, whereas nesting resource availability constrains its extent. Our study highlights that social complexity emerges from the interaction between macro- and micro-ecological factors, providing a mechanistic understanding of the evolution of social complexity and philopatry.

9
Near-future warming amplifies natural heatwave impacts and reorganizes freshwater communities

Nouere, S.; Schaefer, M.; Li, G.; Lohr, M.; Ebert, D.; Xu, S.

2026-07-01 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.01.735828 medRxiv
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Future climate change may reshape ecological communities not only by increasing mean temperature, but also by altering the consequences of increasingly frequent heatwaves. Predicting these effects requires understanding how background warming interacts with short heatwaves in natural communities, where responses can arise through direct thermal stress and species interactions. We tested this using 32 outdoor freshwater mesocosms exposed to sustained near-future warming while capturing a documented natural heatwave. Warming raised temperature maxima that exceeded the thermal threshold of the pond snail, a main grazer in the community. Warmed communities showed lower grazer abundance, increased macrophyte and insect herbivore abundance, reduced phytoplankton biomass, and lower zooplankton density. Complementary assays showed that heatwave-level temperatures promoted macrophyte growth and reduced grazer survival, whereas reduced zooplankton performance mainly reflected indirect warming effects via food-web cascades. Thus, near-future warming can amplify natural heatwave impacts by exceeding consumer thermal thresholds and propagating through species interactions.

10
Heatwaves rescue a mosquito host from parasitism across a large geographic gradient

Farner, J. E.; Riley, I. M.; Singh, A. H.; Mordecai, E. A.

2026-06-29 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.26.734620 medRxiv
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The impacts of increasingly frequent and intense heatwaves on parasitism are an important frontier for understanding disease risk under climate change. These impacts are complex because parasitism arises from multiple interacting host and parasite traits that can vary in thermal sensitivity and among populations adapted to different temperature regimes. Here, we used a lab microcosm experiment to investigate the effects of heatwaves occurring during two different phases of a winter-adapted mosquito host - ciliate parasite interaction, for six pairs of sympatric host and parasite populations sourced from two geographic regions with differing histories of winter heat. We found that because heatwaves allowed mosquito larvae to evade infection, they reduced parasitism and increased survival. An early heatwave during initial parasite attack had stronger effects than a later heatwave occurring after infections had established. We did not find evidence of local adaptation to heatwaves: impacts were consistent regardless of population, and were mechanistically predictable from previously measured thermal performance curves that described lower infection and stronger host defenses at warm constant temperatures. The results suggest that increasingly frequent heatwaves may accelerate geographic shifts in parasitism, and demonstrate how fundamental host - parasite thermal biology links to the impacts of extreme temperature events.

11
Local density shapes complete brood failure across species boundaries in two sympatric songbirds

Albery, G. F.; Knowles, S. C.; Jones, C. V.; Sheldon, B. C.; Firth, J. A.

2026-07-03 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.02.734466 medRxiv
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Reproduction in species with parental care involves sustaining a brood of offspring through an energetically demanding period, when shifts in resource availability, weather, predation risk, and parental condition can strongly alter offspring survival. The most extreme outcome is complete brood failure (death of all offspring), which is relatively frequent in many bird species and may occur when conditions cross a viability threshold. Although complete brood failure is important for shaping fitness variation and population dynamics, we have limited understanding of how intra- and interspecific density dependence governs these events, or of how factors such as habitat quality and disease burden contribute to them, because deriving this requires fine-scale, individual-level data collected across generations for multiple overlapping species. Using a dataset totalling 38,509 nesting attempts from great tits (Parus major) and blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) in Wytham Woods, Oxford, UK, we examined how brood failure is shaped by local conspecific and heterospecific density, habitat structure, and avian malaria infection for a subset. Complete brood failure was frequent (14.75%), mostly involving chick mortality in the nest consistent with starvation, rather than brood removal by predators. Relationships between density and brood failure were strong but species-specific. Specifically, great tit failure risk was higher in neighbourhoods that remained densely populated across years, whereas blue tit failure risk was lower where annual great tit or combined density was high, but not where annual blue tit density itself was high. This suggests that local overall density reflects continuing constraint for great tits, while local annual density may partly track favourable within-year conditions and settlement patterns for blue tits. In great tits, failure was also more common where oak density was low and farther from the closest river (Thames), while habitat associations were weak in blue tits. Malaria infection was spatially heterogeneous and covaried with density and habitat, but infection status did not significantly explain complete brood failure. Together, these results show that complete brood failure is shaped by spatially structured local ecological context, and how density dependence in these events can differ in direction and timescale between sympatric species.

12
Spatial turnover amplifies with trophic level in hyperdiverse food webs

Libra, M.; Novotny, V.; Whitfield, J. B.; Miller, S. E.; North, A.; Mottl, O.; Basset, Y.; Butterill, P. T.; Quicke, D. L. J.; Shima, H.; Weiblen, G. D.; Wahl, D.; Auga, J.; Molem, K.; Hrcek, J.

2026-07-10 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.10.732889 medRxiv
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One of the most intuitive ideas in ecology is that diversity at lower trophic levels in food webs provides niches to support diversity at higher trophic levels. This accumulation of diversity can be limited by survival of species in the landscape, but revealing these limits has been challenging. We analyze spatial turnover in a hyperdiverse parasitoid-caterpillar-plant food web across 75,000 km2 of continuous lowland rainforest in Papua New Guinea. Species turnover across sites is higher in parasitoids than in their caterpillar hosts. Furthermore, turnover of interactions is also higher in parasitoid-caterpillar than caterpillar-plant networks. Spatial turnover thus amplifies upwards across trophic levels, forcing parasitoids to live closer to spatial persistence limits. Consequently, progressing rainforest fragmentation can especially endanger parasitoids.

13
Limited horizontal transmission of an obligate, free-living bacterial symbiont

Sullivan, L.; Kelly, S. E.; Hunter, M. S.

2026-06-27 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.25.734684 medRxiv
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Nutritional symbionts can be essential for their animal hosts. The bacterial symbiont of the leaffooted bug, Leptoglossus zonatus, Caballeronia, is acquired from the environment each generation in the 2nd instar. The symbiont is critical for L. zonatus: aposymbiotic bugs are unable to reproduce. We hypothesized that symbiotic bugs excrete Caballeronia where juveniles might find and consume them. We inoculated L. zonatus with GFP-labelled Caballeronia and examined feces of each life stage. We found that Caballeronia is excreted almost exclusively in the adult stage. We then asked if 2nd instar nymphs could acquire Caballeronia from feces. Nymphs were provided with a) feces from adults fed GFP-labelled Caballeronia, b) GFP-Caballeronia in culture, or c) water only. We found that feces-fed bugs had similar rates of symbiont acquisition to those fed Caballeronia in culture, indicating that feces can be a source of Caballeronia for L. zonatus. However, compared to culture fed individuals, bugs fed feces had reduced survivorship and required longer to develop, and surviving adults had reduced mass. Bacterial motility assays showed that in contrast to cultured Caballeronia cells, Caballeronia in feces were non-motile. These results show suggest that feces can be a source of Caballeronia, at least in some environments, however transmission mode can influence success of the offspring.

14
Environmental tolerance, species interaction, and the link between the fundamental and realized niches: Insights from a hypersaline planktonic system

Guyot, L.; Fereol, S.; Jabbour-Zahab, R.; Chevin, L.-M.

2026-06-27 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.26.734780 medRxiv
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The impacts of a changing abiotic environment on fitness and performance arise not only from low tolerance to new environmental conditions, but also from changes in the abundance and interaction intensity with other species. The strength of the interaction may itself depend on how well each species performs across environments, but there is a dearth of studies investigating how intrinsic fitness and interaction intensity covary across an abiotic environmental gradient. We addressed this question in a hypersaline consumer-resource system: the microalga Dunaliella spp. grazed by the brine shrimp Artemia franciscana. We exposed four Dunaliella strains to a range of salinities above seawater, with or without brine shrimps, and tracked their population sizes over time and the survival of their predators, to estimate basic parameters of a Lotka-Volterra model. We found that the intrinsic growth rate of algae, the survival rate of predators, and the per-capita predation rate, all varied with salinity and algal strain. Significant interactions between strain and salinity further revealed that these ecological responses to salinity are evolvable. Together with correlations between demographic parameters across salinity, this suggests that predation may influence the evolution of salinity tolerance curves, blurring the line between the fundamental and realized niches.

15
Interspecific variation in reproductive and foraging traits for raptors breeding in Norway

Sandvik Halgunset, E.; Mellard, J.

2026-06-29 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.28.734957 medRxiv
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Arctic and Boreal raptor communities will continue to be affected by borealization and other climate change related processes, providing a challenge for ecologists predicting future sates. However, by using community assembly theory and species traits, future communities may be predictable. In this study, we analyzed variation in reproduction traits as a consequence of diet specialization for 29 raptors, 2 skuas and 3 corvids. We assessed and implemented foraging traits for specialists and generalists into predator-prey models from which successful invasion conditions were derived. Specialist raptors produced larger clutch sizes, had a higher proportion of fledged per clutch and also expressed more variation compared to generalist raptors. These results suggest a relationship between diet specialization and reproductive traits which was also observed within phylogenetic orders. Specialist owls (Strigiformes) produced higher clutch sizes with a larger clutch range compared to generalist owls. The same pattern was observed for falcons (Falconiformes). No clear difference in reproduction was observed for specialist and generalist hawks, kites and eagles (Accipitriformes). Corvids expressed clutch sizes similar to that of specialist raptors while having the lowest proportion of fledged per clutch. Differences in foraging traits between specialists and generalists could be distinguished using functional response curves. A predator-prey model parameterized with foraging trait data showed that a generalist can coexist with a resident specialist if it has access to prey unavailable to the resident specialist. Otherwise, the native specialist outcompetes the invading generalist due to foraging efficiency. The combined empirical and theoretical findings in this study show how diet specialization affects both reproduction and the potential invasion success of raptors.

16
Environmental Stochasticity Reshapes Persistence and Extinction Dynamics in a Fear-Mediated Two-Species Competitive System

Srivastava, V.

2026-07-09 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.04.736416 medRxiv
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Environmental variability can strongly alter coexistence among competing species and their extinction risk, particularly when population dynamics are shaped by behavioral interactions, such as fear. In this work, we develop a novel stochastic differential equation competition model that incorporates both non-consumptive fear effects and environmental variability to investigate how behavioral interactions influence species coexistence under random fluctuations. Our result reveals that environmental stochasticity can drive species to extinction even when the corresponding deterministic system admits coexistence. In particular, under an explicit stability condition on the fear and competition parameters and sufficiently strong averaged noise intensities, we prove that both competing species become extinct exponentially almost surely. Conversely, we derive a stochastic persistence criterion in terms of fear, competition, and noise-induced suppression parameters for the fearful species. We further demonstrate that environmental noise may reverse classical competition-exclusion outcomes, leading to qualitatively different long-term dynamics from those predicted deterministically. These results provide rigorous thresholds separating stochastic extinction from persistence and highlight the critical role of environmental variability in fear-mediated competitive ecosystems. From an applied perspective, these results provide insight into how behavioral interactions and environmental variability influence species survival, with potential applications in ecological management and conservation.

17
Where species distribution models fail under occurrence-data contamination: calibration error concentrates at stream-network headwaters

Miok, K.; Laza, A. V.; Skrlj, B.; Robnik-Sikonja, M.; Parvulescu, L.

2026-07-15 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.14.738364 medRxiv
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Species distribution models (SDMs) increasingly inform conservation and biosecurity decisions in freshwater systems, where the reliability of its uncertainty estimates matters as much as its point predictions. Ensemble SDMs derive prediction intervals from across-replicate variance, but this variance captures systematic error only when replicates disagree about it, an assumption that fails when training data are contaminated with low-accuracy records, the norm in citizen-science datasets. Whether this failure is spatially uniform or concentrates in identifiable parts of a range is unknown. Using a panel of European freshwater crayfish spanning native headwater-associated species and invasive lowland colonizers, we show that contamination-induced calibration failure is strongly spatially structured: it concentrates at stream-network headwaters, the topological tops of the network, where upstream-aggregated predictors are structurally undefined, and scales with contamination severity, replicated across four species and both dominant ensemble protocols (replicate and consensus). The failure is driven by upward prediction bias, not by intervals failing to widen: contaminated ensembles overpredict suitability in headwaters, and because the bias is shared across ensemble members, the intervals do not flag it. This is a conservation-relevant blind spot, because headwaters are both refugia for threatened native crayfish and front lines for invasion; an SDM that silently overpredicts suitability there misdirects survey and management effort toward the segments where its predictions are least trustworthy. Standard leave-one-basin-out conformal calibration, the recommended panel-wide remedy, repairs marginal coverage but leaves headwaters undercovered, because a single calibration threshold is dominated by the abundant non-headwater segments. A group-conditional (Mondrian) variant, calibrating the two populations separately, restores reliable coverage in both at no extra cost and reallocates width where it is needed. We recommend network-position-stratified calibration as a default for ensemble SDMs in dendritic freshwater systems.

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'Who Goes There?' Quantifying Scavenger-Carcass Activity at Mass Mortality Events

Barton, K. A.; Finnerty, P. B.; Bonat, S. J.; Martinez-Lopez, B.; Meisuria, N. Y.; Newsome, T. M.; Peel, A. J.; Smith, J. A.; Brookes, V. J.

2026-07-06 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.03.735954 medRxiv
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Mass mortality events (MMEs) create sudden pulses of carrion that can alter how vertebrate scavengers use carcass resources, including the frequency, duration, and timing of species-carcass contacts. These changes could have implications for pathogen transmission at the scavenger-carcass interface. We aimed to develop and apply a reproducible analytical framework for using camera-trap data to quantify transmission-relevant vertebrate activity at carcass sites under differing carrion biomass scenarios. We studied experimental carcass plots (single carcass ~43 kg; 'mass mortality' plots [10 carcasses, >350 kg total]; 6 of each) in Australia's alpine ecosystem. The framework integrated descriptive summaries (bipartite network analysis, Kaplan-Meier curves) and marked temporal point-process models to characterise structural and temporal dimensions of species-carcass activity. Mass mortality plots had greater overall visitation duration, occurring as sustained activity (50% of visitation event volume by day 17), compared with intense then rapidly declining activity at single carcasses (50% by day 8). Mass mortality plots also had higher predicted daily arrival probability and contact hours across most species, indicating an extended window for pathogen transmission. This framework provides empirically derived contact parameters for MME-related disease spread models using camera-trap data to identify potential transmission pathways at the scavenger-carcass interface.

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Anthropogenic-driven loss of an adaptive radiation reduces thermal response diversity

Moreau, S.; Wegscheider, B.; Josi, D.; Bouffard, D.; Schmid, M.; Alexander, T. J.; Selz, O.; Seehausen, O.; Waldock, C.

2026-07-08 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.07.736981 medRxiv
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Biodiversity is predicted to stabilize ecosystems if species have different environmental responses. How this response diversity is shaped by ecological and evolutionary processes remains poorly understood. We determine the drivers of thermal response diversity of 16 Swiss peri-alpine lake-fish communities. We report the first evidence that evolutionary diversification of lineages through adaptive radiation can increase the response diversity of an ecosystem. In-situ diversification increases response diversity in the cold-deep lake environment, but non-endemic and non-native species contributed only weakly to response diversity. The loss of endemic species during historical anthropogenic eutrophication led to a negative legacy on present thermal response diversity in cold and deep lake strata. Overall, the interplay of evolutionary diversification, ecological assembly and anthropogenic impacts drives variation in response diversity. Conserving and restoring processes that generate diversity may help maintain ecosystem stability beyond the Anthropocene.

20
Behavioral metabolic suppression confounds thermal performance estimates and climate vulnerability assessments in a marine ectotherm

Edgar, C.; Penfold, H.; Martinez, T.; Wells, C. D.

2026-07-14 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.13.738316 medRxiv
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O_LIThermal performance curves (TPCs) predict species vulnerability to climate change, but standard respirometry assumes that measured oxygen consumption reflects physiological state. Sessile invertebrates that retract their tentacles and contract under thermal stress violate this assumption, with unmeasured consequences for thermal limit estimates. C_LIO_LIWe tested this behavioral confound in an undescribed cold-water intertidal anemone (Urticina sp.) in the Northwest Atlantic by integrating a negative binomial encounter-rate regression, a maximum entropy species distribution model (both from effort-corrected iNaturalist data), and closed-chamber respirometry across seven temperatures (1-30{degrees}C, 18 individuals, 126 trials). C_LIO_LIThe strongest distributional predictors were cloud cover and coastal urbanization, with a weaker association with winter minimum SST; direct evidence for warm-edge thermal limitation came from the experiment. Anemone expansion state (scored 0-1 from fully closed to fully expanded) was variable and without a clear trend across the coldest treatments but declined above 20{degrees}C before collapsing at the 30{degrees}C treatment, which proved lethal to all individuals. C_LIO_LIStandard TPC models extrapolated the thermal maximum far beyond the lethal bracket ([~]74{degrees}C symmetric Gaussian; 45.9{degrees}C asymmetric). A Bayesian multiplicative model that separated physiology from behavior showed that physiology continued to track temperature while expansion state declined above 20{degrees}C; a fully expanded anemone respired about twice as fast as a fully closed one at the same temperature. The decline in measured respiration is therefore both behavioral and physiological, and disentangling the two requires recording expansion state alongside oxygen consumption. C_LIO_LIBecause a closed anemone cannot feed or exchange gases, the ecologically relevant thermal limit is the temperature at which the animal can no longer maintain its normal expanded posture, not a curve-fitted thermal maximum. That behavioral threshold leaves warm-edge populations within a few degrees of functional thermal failure. C_LIO_LIFuture thermal physiology studies of organisms capable of modulating oxygen consumption through behavior should incorporate quantitative behavioral covariates to separate physiological from behavioral components of the metabolic response. C_LI