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Ecology

Wiley

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match Ecology's content profile, based on 85 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.07% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
Response diversity can stabilize or destabilize community dynamics depending on the number of insensitive species

Shibasaki, S.; Fujita, H.; Toju, H.; Yamamichi, M.

2026-08-12 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.11.743952 medRxiv
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Investigating the factors that stabilize biological communities is a central topic in ecology. Response diversity, defined as variation in species responses to environmental change, has been proposed as a key mechanism underlying the biodiversity-ecosystem functional stability (BEFS) relationship, whereby greater species diversity enhances ecological stability. Previous studies have shown that response diversity promotes ecological stability by generating asynchronous population fluctuations and the resulting compensatory dynamics. Although several metrics have been proposed to quantify response diversity, they do not explicitly consider the presence of insensitive species whose performance is unaffected by current environmental conditions. To examine how insensitive species influence response diversity, species persistence, and ecological stability, we conducted numerical simulations of a generalized Lotka-Volterra model under environmental forcing. We first confirmed that increasing variation among sensitive species increased the response diversity index and stabilized community dynamics. We then examined a scenario in which response diversity depended solely on the proportion of sensitive and insensitive species, assuming that all sensitive species responded identically to environmental change. Under this assumption, the response diversity index was maximized when sensitive and insensitive species occurred in equal proportions, whereas increasing the number of sensitive species monotonically destabilized community dynamics. Consequently, the relationship between response diversity and community stability depended on how response diversity was generated, such that higher response diversity could even be associated with lower community stability. These findings demonstrate that overlooking environmentally insensitive species can obscure the mechanisms linking response diversity and ecological stability. More broadly, our results reveal that response diversity comprises at least two distinct biological components--species sensitivity and response variation among sensitive species--that can have contrasting consequences for community stability. We therefore highlight the need to quantify sensitive species empirically and to develop response diversity metrics that distinguish these components. Author SummaryUnderstanding why some communities remain stable despite environmental change is a longstanding goal in ecology. Response diversity, which refers to differences in how species respond to environmental change, has been proposed as a key mechanism explaining why greater biodiversity (species richness) can promote ecological stability. Because species respond differently to changing environments, declines in some species can be compensated by increases in others, helping to stabilize community dynamics. However, previous studies have rarely considered species that are insensitive to current environmental changes. Using a mathematical model, we show that response diversity can arise from two distinct biological components--the number of sensitive species and variation in their responses--and that these components can have contrasting effects on ecological stability. When response diversity reflects variation among sensitive species, greater response diversity stabilizes community dynamics, as expected. In contrast, when response diversity changes only because of the proportions of sensitive and insensitive species, higher response diversity can be associated with lower community stability. Our findings highlight the importance of quantifying the number of sensitive species and developing response diversity metrics that distinguish species sensitivity from variation in responses among sensitive species.

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Maximum trophic level predicts food webs susceptibility to coextinctions

Li, H.; Eklöf, A.; Barabas, G.; Dee, L. E.

2026-08-19 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.14.744947 medRxiv
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As ecosystems face a growing number of threats, coextinctions (resultant extinctions following a primary extinction) are expected to proliferate. However, less is known about the conditions under which coextinctions could outpace primary extinctions. Because coextinctions often occur through lost species interactions, we posit that aspects of food web structure and complexity can help predict differences in vulnerability to coextinction across ecosystems. To test this, we leverage Bayesian network models to assess the extent to which variation in ecosystem vulnerability to coextinction varies with food web structure. We find that food webs with high maximum trophic level are most vulnerable to coextinction, and that maximum trophic level is a better predictor than other aspects of food web structure, such as species richness or trophic connectance. Extending this approach, we also find that maximum trophic level uncovers the relative vulnerability of ecosystem services to species coextinction across 12 empirical food webs.

3
What abundance correlations actually measure in stochastic ecological communities

Goldberg, A.; Shnerb, N.

2026-08-13 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.12.744396 medRxiv
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Abundance correlations cannot reveal ecological interactions without an assumption about the covariance of environmental noise. A natural biological expectation is that similar species respond similarly to environmental fluctuations, generating positive correlations. Yet the same species also tend to overlap more strongly in resource use and therefore compete more intensely, generating negative correlations. The simplest plausible benchmark is thus to take environmental-response correlations proportional to niche overlap. We show that, under this assumption and across a broad class of stochastic community models, the two effects cancel exactly: equal-time abundance correlations vanish, independently of interaction strength, heterogeneity, and system size. Away from this matched point, the observed correlations measure primarily the mismatch between shared environmental response and competition, rather than the interaction matrix itself. Correlations can recover information about niche overlap when competitive feedback is delayed relative to environmental forcing, but the inference then depends on a resource-response timescale that is generally not determined by the abundance time series alone. When stochasticity enters through the mechanism that generates similarity itself--for example, through fluctuating shared resources--nonzero correlations may persist, but they reflect yield-depletion mismatch rather than niche overlap. Abundance correlations therefore report how environmental variability reaches the community at least as much as they report who competes with whom.

4
Insights for Estimating Animal Movement Step Selection Functions

Koshute, P.; Fagan, W. F.

2026-08-31 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.29.748012 medRxiv
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Ecologists remotely track movement steps of animals (e.g., via global positioning systems) and use step selection functions to study the effect of environmental factors upon their movement decisions. Constructing such functions requires pairing each observed step with some number of unobserved but feasible comparison steps. Larger numbers of comparison steps generally yield better estimates but also incur potentially challenging computational demands. Thus, it is important to determine an appropriate number of comparison steps. No established guidance exists for this decision. Here, we use simulated tracks to assess how many comparison steps are needed, fitting each set of steps to a conditional logistic regression model. We monitor errors in estimated effects for several classes of tracks, identifying the number of comparison steps for which mean relative absolute error in estimated effects is consistently low. By this criterion, 32 comparison steps per observed step are needed for our primary class of simulated tracks. Tracks in more homogeneous landscapes, tracks with shorter mean step lengths, or shorter tracks generally require more comparison steps (ranging from 64 to 128 per observed step) to achieve the same level of accuracy. Longer tracks generally require fewer comparison steps (16 per observed step). These results clearly demonstrate that the number of comparison steps influences how well step selection functions estimate covariate effects and provides initial direction in a research area that currently lacks quantitative guidance. Movement ecologists should take care when selecting the number of comparison steps paired with each observed step because those decisions matter.

5
Evaluating threshold management for willow grouse harvest: tracking open and closed areas during 12 years.

Willebrand, T.; Hornell Willebrand, M.; Brittas, R.; Kleiven, E.

2026-08-28 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.27.747286 medRxiv
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Managers must make decisions in the face of uncertainty, especially when available resources are limiting. Identifying thresholds when certain conditions are met or exceeded enable the potential to mitigate risks. In 2005, sustainable harvest levels of willow ptarmigan were identified to avoid harvest efforts exceeding three hunter days km2. Here we evaluate these recommendations by analyzing line transect counts and harvest data from six areas forming three open/closed pairs in a region of state managed willow ptarmigan harvest. We developed three sets of Bayesian hierarchical models, one static distance model, and two dynamics models. One mechanistic hazard model and a Gompertz phenomenological model. Adult and juvenile density showed pronounced year-to-year variation that was largely synchronous across all six sites regardless of hunting status. The harvest effort parameter shows a striking difference between the two models. In the Hazard model, is positive, and excludes zero with near certainty, but in the Gompertz model, the parameter is highly uncertain. However, the two models do not contradict each other but answer complementary questions with different sensitivity to the harvest signal, harvest mortality is additive at the individual level, but this additive mortality is masked at the level of population abundance. The demographic cost of harvest is therefore real and quantifiable through the survival chain, but bounded in the long run by the stabilizing dynamics. A fixed limit anchored to monitored effort and bag is not a crude substitute for adaptive management but the appropriate design under the information commonly at hand. It will be a precautionary instrument grounded in the one relationship this study establishes firmly, the translation of hunter effort into harvest mortality.

6
Warm temperature impedes the spread of a heritable manipulative symbiont community in spider populations

White, J. R.; Robinson, J. D.; Doremus, M. R.

2026-09-01 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.31.747884 medRxiv
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Heritable bacterial symbionts are pervasive in terrestrial arthropods, often imposing reproductive manipulations to promote their own spread within host populations. Co-infections are common, potentially allowing symbiont co-infectors to hitchhike through a host population. However, adverse thermal conditions can disrupt these communities, particularly when co-infectors vary in their thermal sensitivity. We used a multi-generation experiment to test whether warm (29 {degrees}C) conditions disrupted spread of heritable symbionts through uninfected populations of the spider, Mermessus fradeorum. We tested two common infection combinations: a single infection with a cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) inducing Rickettsiella or a feminizing co-infection that included a feminizing Wolbachia, the same Rickettsiella, and up to three apparent hitchhikers (two additional Wolbachia strains and Tisiphia). We initiated replicate populations with 1/3 of one infection type and 2/3 uninfected spiders, evaluating population infection rate over 5 spider generations under different temperature regimes. Under cool (21{degrees}C) conditions, Wolbachia feminization drove co-infection to 88% and Rickettsiella CI drove single infection to 83% of host populations. Vertical transmission for all symbionts was high (97-99%) and hitchhiking symbionts also spread effectively. Under warm conditions, feminization and CI efficacy were reduced, and symbionts suffered variably reduced vertical transmission. Warm conditions ultimately destroyed the co-infecting symbiont consortium and impeded symbiont spread. On its own, though, Rickettsiella was still able to increase, despite reduced strength of CI. We hypothesize that contrasting tensions between feminizing spread of the symbiont consortium versus environmentally driven loss of function and transmission may explain observed patterns of mixed infections in field populations of this spider.

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Amplified transmission in host communities following disease-induced declines

Hoyt, J. R.; DePue, J. E.; Kailing, M. J.; Laggan, N. A.; Kaarakka, H. M.; Redell, J. A.; White, J. P.; Langwig, K. E.

2026-08-19 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.18.744677 medRxiv
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Pathogen transmission is a fundamental component of infectious disease systems, governing the speed and extent of pathogen outbreaks. Predicting transmission within and among species is therefore critical for outbreak preparedness and the effective implementation of control strategies. Epidemics themselves can alter host populations in ways that fundamentally reshape transmission, but the long-term consequences remain poorly understood. Here, we quantify changes in transmission using a surrogate pathogen in bat communities before and after the emergence of white-nose syndrome, a fungal disease that has caused widespread population declines across North America. We find that transmission increased following disease-induced declines across all species in the community. We also observed an increase in environmental contacts and expanded habitat use by individuals, suggesting that surviving bats, on average, increased their activity and opportunities for interaction despite the substantial reductions in density and costs of infection. Together, these findings demonstrate that pathogen emergence can fundamentally alter host contact patterns and transmission dynamics, emphasizing the importance of considering behavioral and ecological changes imposed by epidemics when predicting pathogen spread in naive host populations.

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eDNA reveals urban habitat-specific sorting of a mixed regional fish fauna into distinct biodiversity and life-history assemblages

Zapfe, K. L.; Parker, E.; Elias, D.; Hogue, G. M.; Dornburg, A.

2026-08-31 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.29.748007 medRxiv
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Urbanization is reshaping freshwater ecosystems, with well-documented effects across gradients of land-use change, hydrologic alteration, and habitat degradation. However, how biodiversity is organized among neighboring urban aquatic habitats that differ in hydrologic connectivity, disturbance transmission, residence time, management history, and opportunities for species movement is often less clear. This creates a challenge for interpreting urban fish communities at local scales as species occurrence may reflect both contemporary habitat filtering and historical contingencies including native persistence, interbasin transfer, stocking, and nonindigenous introductions. Here we use eDNA detections, historical records, phylogenetic information, and species trait data to investigate the fish assemblages of the Charlotte metropolitan region. We detect a highly mixed fauna that also depicts a strong signature of structured biodiversity profiles across taxonomic, phylogenetic, functional, and life-history dimensions between habitat types. In particular, bounded habitats contained assemblages with larger-bodied species that are fecund and faster to reproduce relative to free-flowing habitats. Species-level occurrence models did not support a simple trait-by-habitat rule. Instead our results demonstrate that urban aquatic habitats can sort historically mixed regional species pools into predictable assemblage-level life-history profiles while simultaneously retaining signatures of evolutionary and historical biogeographic contingency.

9
Intraguild predation, weather, and climate teleconnection patterns interact to determine an insect vital rate

Duverglas, L.; Boggs, C. L.

2026-08-24 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.21.746272 medRxiv
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Population dynamics and their component vital rates may be driven by weather, climate teleconnections between sea and air (e.g. ENSO), or biotic interactions. These drivers operate directly or indirectly and on different temporal scales. We used a Bayesian structural equation model to characterize effects among weather, climate, and incidental intraguild predation (IGP) on the butterfly Euphydryas gillettii's vital rate of pre-diapause survival, using an 18 year dataset. IGP was a major determinant of pre-diapause survival, along with direct and indirect effects of weather and spring climate teleconnections. The direction of climate effects was reversed when mediated through IGP. Our analysis illustrates the need for sequential hypotheses to capture the cascading effects of abiotic factors via biotic interactions. Using sequential hypotheses addresses the debate on weather -- climate teleconnection roles by disentangling their contributions from one another. Finally, vital rates must be decomposed to component rates in order to detect their drivers.

10
Decoupled seasonal effects of an environmentally transmitted wildlife disease

Kailing, M. J.; Callanan, L.; Valldeperes, M.; Richards, S. A.; Carver, S.

2026-08-19 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.17.743117 medRxiv
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O_LISeasonal forcing is a dominant factor shaping host-pathogen interactions and disease dynamics across many wildlife systems, including species impacted by environmentally transmitted parasites. How seasonality in parasite dynamics translates to the host when the infection and disease impacts operate at different timescales, however, remains poorly understood. C_LIO_LIWe investigate how seasonality shapes sarcoptic mange in bare-nosed wombats, Vombatus ursinus, a disease caused by the environmentally transmitted parasitic mite Sarcoptes scabiei, causing a protracted clinical time-course in the host. Using an empirically informed state-based deterministic model we explore how wombat population trajectories are influenced by (i) seasonal constraints to mite survival and (ii) in context of host-pathogen encounter rates, as measured by the ratio of burrows to wombats. C_LIO_LIWe demonstrate three long-term outcomes of wombat-mange: host and parasite extinction, endemic disease, and disease-free. We find seasonal environments narrow the range of host-pathogen encounter rates that support S. scabiei persistence relative to stable environments, and prevalence and population sizes vary more in seasonal compared to stable environments except under moderate host-pathogen encounter rates when seasonal effects are less apparent. We also find that a protracted infectious period is essential for host-parasite coexistence in the wombat-mange system. C_LIO_LIOur seasonal model results are consistent with field observations, such that mange prevalence in natural populations increases during seasons of longer off-host mite survival. Application of these findings suggest management efforts could reduce host population impacts through disease management in seasons with longer off-host parasite survival or reduce the environmental reservoir through disease management in seasons with shorter off-host survival. C_LIO_LIWe provide novel, mechanistic explanations for distinctive population trajectories that arise from a seasonally forced wildlife disease, including climate factors that operate independently on parasites, host demography, and disparate timescales over which seasonality affects parasites and hosts. Broadly, linking seasonality to long-term population dynamics can improve the predictability and management of wildlife diseases, but requires an understanding of how local intrinsic factors interact with seasonal pressures over time. C_LI

11
Diet and feeding strategies of two sympatric mouse lemurs (Microcebus) in the xeric forests of Andohahela, southeastern Madagascar

Hyde Roberts, S.; Segami, J. C.; Harinala, V. J. N.; Yoder, A. D.

2026-08-24 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.22.746410 medRxiv
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Understanding how closely related species coexist in highly seasonal and unpredictable environments is central to studies of ecological differentiation and niche partitioning. We investigated the feeding ecology of sympatric populations of Microcebus murinus and M. griseorufus within a contact zone in Andohahela National Park, southeastern Madagascar, across dry and wet seasons. Using a combination of direct behavioral observations (1,611 feeding records), fecal sample analyses (n = 56), and vegetation phenology surveys, we quantified dietary composition, seasonal shifts in resource use, and habitat-related variation. Seasonal changes in diet were pronounced, with dry-season feeding dominated by exudates and wet-season diets incorporating greater proportions of fruit and flowers, closely tracking phenological patterns at both sites. Diets of both species were dominated by plant resources, but consistent interspecific differences in dietary strategy were evident. Although both species consumed comparable proportions of insect prey, M. murinus showed pronounced wet-season increases in the use of high-sugar, carbohydrate-rich floral resources (15.9%) and hemipteran-associated honeydew (30.6%). In contrast, M. griseorufus relied more consistently on predictable exudates throughout the year. Fecal analyses supported observational data but revealed differences in the detectability of dietary components, with increased representation of invertebrates in the wet season and seeds in the dry season. These results indicate substantial dietary overlap but consistent differences in resource use, suggesting that coexistence is facilitated by fine-scale trophic differentiation within a broadly shared omnivorous niche. Such subtle but persistent differences in feeding strategy likely reduce competitive overlap and enable continued sympatry in a climatically variable and resource-limited system.

12
Functional Robustness of Food Webs: A Dynamic Biomass Framework with Vital Species Sets and Cluster Influence

Qu, X.; Guo, C.; Fan, T.; Lv, L.

2026-08-28 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.27.747453 medRxiv
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1. Species loss can erode food-web functioning not only through secondary extinctions, but also through biomass redistribution, weakened energy pathways, and threshold-like functional collapse. Common topology-, connectivity-, and extinction-based robustness metrics provide valuable summaries of structural disassembly and cascade risk, but they are not designed to quantify continuous biomass retention, collapse-associated species sets, and non-additive group-level effects within a single dynamic framework. 2. We develop a dynamic biomass-based framework for assessing food-web robustness under progressive species removal. The framework introduces Dynamic Area-based Robustness (DAR), which quantifies the weighted area between slow- and fast-collapse reference trajectories of total ecosystem biomass retention. Building on these trajectories, we operationally define the Minimal Vital Species Set (MVSS) as the smallest fast-collapse-prefix species set whose removal first drives biomass below a predefined functional-collapse threshold. We further propose Cluster Influence (CI), which compares the biomass effect of simultaneous group removal with the mean effect of removing the same species individually. 3. We evaluated the framework using 120 niche-model virtual food webs spanning controlled gradients of species richness and connectance, and further demonstrated its applicability on 16 empirical stream food webs. We compared DAR with AUC- and secondary-extinction-based robustness metrics and assessed the sensitivity of DAR, MVSS, and CI to key bioenergetic parameters and parameter uncertainty. 4. DAR captured biomass-based robustness patterns that were only partly aligned with structural and extinction-based metrics, indicating that dynamic functional degradation provides complementary information. In virtual food webs, MVSS subsets were strongly enriched in basal species or basal resource nodes, and smaller MVSS proportions were associated with stronger positive CI under fast-collapse trajectories. Together, DAR, MVSS, and CI provide a reproducible framework for linking food-web structure, biomass dynamics, collapse thresholds, and non-additive species-set effects, offering a practical tool for dynamic robustness assessment in theoretical and empirical food webs.

13
Life history traits predict the contribution of transient dynamics to variation in population growth

Lin, H.-w.; Hernandez, C.; Jaggi, H.; ZUO, W.; Tuljapurkar, S. D.; Salguero-Gomez, R.

2026-08-28 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.28.747639 medRxiv
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The performance of any natural population in variable environments depends on contemporaneous changes in its vital rates (e.g., survival, reproduction) as well as legacies carried by its population structure. Yet whether the relative contribution of these two pathways can be predicted from life history remains unknown. Here, we use stochastic simulations of 1,986 matrix population models from 137 species to quantify the contribution of transient dynamics to variation in population growth rate, and test its associations with key life history traits. Longer generation times were associated with reductions in transient contributions, contrary to theoretical expectations. Greater stage-specific survival heterogeneities were associated with increases in transient contributions, whereas greater iteroparity was associated with decreases in plants but increases in animals. These associations were robust to body size, phylogenetic relationships, and vital-rate variability. Life history traits therefore provide a strong predictor for when population structure shapes population responses to environmental variability.

14
Immediate and carryover reproductive costs of infection in female but not male house finches

Talbott, K.; Fleming-Davies, A.; Tillman, F.; Nunez, C.; Weil, J.; Perez-Umphrey, A.; Hawley, D. M.; Adelman, J.

2026-08-07 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.06.741781 medRxiv
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Wildlife diseases cause well-documented and often dramatic reductions in host survival. However, the impact of infectious diseases on host reproduction remains understudied, especially with respect to effects of prior and/or current pathogen exposure on reproductive development. Here we experimentally tested how prior and/or current infection with a common bacterial pathogen, Mycoplasma gallisepticum ( MG), alters reproductive development for female versus male house finches (Haemorhous mexicanus). Finches were inoculated with either MG or sterile media while in wintering condition and subsequently received one of these treatments while in breeding condition. In females, MG exposure had both immediate and carry-over effects on reproduction: controls had higher odds of laying eggs compared to females inoculated with MG in spring only, higher odds than females inoculated in both winter and spring, and higher odds than females given MG in the winter only. Conversely, breeding-condition males inoculated with MG in spring had higher testosterone levels than males receiving only control inoculations, and there were no carryover effects of winter MG inoculation or inoculations during both seasons on testosterone. Sex bias in the reproductive impacts of infectious diseases may have important knock-on effects on the epidemiology and population-regulating effects of pathogens, thereby warranting further study.

15
Genetically informed distribution models refine predictions for the overwintering range of Helicoverpa armigera in North America

Williams, C. D.; Jiggins, C. D.; North, H. L.

2026-08-24 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.21.746245 medRxiv
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The ecological and economic threat posed by invasive pests demands proactive mitigation. Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used in efforts to predict where invasive species might spread after introduction, though such models face several limitations. Among these is the unrealistic assumption of niche uniformity throughout a species' range. This has led to interest in developing SDMs that explicitly account for local adaptation, though few methods have achieved this in a way that confidently separates local adaptation from population structure. Here we develop and implement a sequential SDM approach that incorporates experimentally verified associations between genotype, phenotype, and environment to forecast establishment risk in a major agricultural pest. We leverage genomic data from 738 individuals to characterize the geographic distribution of alleles at a major-effect locus for cold tolerance (tret1) in Helicoverpa armigera, an invasive crop pest of major economic concern in North America. We demonstrate that a recently detected North American population carries a cold-adapted tret1 allele, which has likely contributed to its persistence. We quantify the contribution of cold-adapted tret1 to the potential invasive range of H. armigera in North America under current and future climate scenarios. We find that cold-adapted tret1 may dramatically expand the potential range of H. armigera, and that potential future range expansion is likely to be driven primarily by cold-adapted individuals. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for intraspecific variation in invasive species risk assessments and management strategies.

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Nutrient enrichment and herbivore exclusion disrupt the climate-driven balance between C3 and C4 plants in grasslands

Atkinson, J.; Price, J. N.; Buitenwerf, R.; Smith, N. G.; Ezekannagha, E.; Borer, E. T.; Brown, C.; Brudvig, L. A.; Buckley, Y. M.; Bugalho, M. N.; Caldeira, M. C.; Campana, S.; Carbutt, C.; Dickman, C. R.; Donohue, I.; Eisenhauer, N.; Elgersma, K. J.; Eskelinen, A.; Garbowski, M.; Hader, S.; Hagenah, N.; Harpole, S.; Hautier, Y.; Jentsch, A.; Knops, J. M.; Koerner, S. E.; Kohli, M.; Komatsu, K. J.; Laanisto, L.; Leakey, A. D.; Macek, P.; Ma, M.; MacDougall, A. S.; Martina, J. P.; Martinson, H. M.; McCulley, R. L.; Morgan, J. W.; Pärtel, M.; Pennings, S. C.; Peri, P. L.; Power, S.; Prober, S.

2026-08-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.17.744757 medRxiv
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The distribution of plants with different photosynthetic pathways is strongly structured by climate, with C3 plants favoured in cooler temperate regions and C4 plants in hotter, high-light conditions. The relative abundance of C3 and C4 plants across the world has cascading impacts on local food webs, decomposition, productivity and other vital ecosystem processes. Human impacts, including climate change, changes to herbivore assemblages, and increased nutrient availability, are shifting the optimal conditions for important C3 and C4-dominated ecosystems and crops. Using 3,184 plot-level observations from 112 sites across six continents, we reveal how chronic nutrient enrichment disrupts the climate-driven balance between C3 and C4 plants in grasslands. We found that, consistent with expectations, the global distribution of C4 plants was strongly related to climate. However, experimental nutrient addition reduced the relative cover of C4 species, with the strongest declines found when nitrogen and phosphorus were added together. Herbivore exclusion had no consistent effect on C4 plants. Our results provide global experimental evidence that elevated nutrients, particularly nitrogen, alter competitive outcomes among plant functional types to suppress C4 grasses, even in climatically optimal conditions. This has major implications for predicting vegetation responses to global change, with consequences for carbon cycling, primary productivity, herbivore dynamics, and food security.

17
Geometric scaling of non-consumptive interactions generates sublinear density dependence and reshapes coexistence

Baruah, G.; KC, Y. K.

2026-08-31 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.30.748073 medRxiv
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The shape of density-dependence governs species persistence, and ecosystem stability. Yet, whether per-capita growth declines sublinearily, or superlinearily with density remains hotly debated. Growth rates across the tree of life have been shown to decline sublinearly with density, whereas theory founded on resource competition predicts the opposite. Here, we resolve this discrepancy and show that sublinearity can readily emerge from geometric constraints on consumer interactions. By linking inter individual spacing, movement and interference rates, we derive two limiting-interference regimes, one of which the well-mixed limit recovers the form of classic Beddington DeAngelis interference response. We then developed an individual-based model from first principles which reproduces the derived sublinearity response, and further use empirical data from published consumer-resource experiments that also bears the signature of sublinear density-dependence. Further, embedding the interference mechanisms underlying the emergence of sublinear density-dependence in coexistence theory opens a new regime for species coexistence where classical theory fails to predict. Our framework indicates that non-consumptive interactions are not merely a correction to resource competition but might be a distinct axis along which diverse communities may potentially coexist.

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Generalism vs. specialization: Does niche breadth influence species responses to anthropogenic land-use change in Neotropical leaf-cutter ants?

Garcia Castillo, D.

2026-08-17 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.12.744409 medRxiv
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Land-use change, such as the transformation of woody ecosystems into open pastures, acts as a strong ecological filter, favouring some species while excluding others according to differences in ecological niche breadth. Understanding how differences in niche breadth influence species responses under anthropogenic filters is crucial to anticipate their persistence or displacement. In this study, we quantified realized niche breadth in two sympatric ecosystem engineers, the Neotropical leaf-cutter ants Atta cephalotes and Atta laevigata, to test whether breadth differences are consistent with specialist and generalist ecological strategies. We characterized realized niche breadth across fine-scale environmental gradients by integrating hemispherical photography, microclimatic data, mound architecture, and edaphic profiles from 114 colonies across a regional transect in the Colombian Andes, alongside macroclimatic data from Copernicus. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and PERMANOVA identified canopy openness and bushes- and tree-type vegetation density as the principal axes of interspecific niche partitioning. The observed differences in realized niche breadth were consistent with specialist and generalist ecological strategies. A. laevigata was predominantly associated with open-canopy areas, warmer micro- and macroclimatic conditions, and narrower edaphic dispersion. In contrast, A. cephalotes occupied a wider range of microhabitat conditions. This broader realized niche breadth is compatible with previous reports of A. cephalotes occurring in urban areas. Together, these findings suggest that niche breadth may influence how Neotropical leaf-cutter ants respond to habitat transformation, helping to understand the ecological consequences of land-use change.

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The spatiotemporal effects of seasonal migration on passerine phylogenetic community structure

Hack, M.; Winger, B.

2026-08-19 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.18.745533 medRxiv
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O_LISeasonal migration in birds involves a substantial spatial redistribution of avian biodiversity each year and drives seasonal changes in community composition. Migrants experience different combinations of species interactions over space and time, generating regular disassembly and reassembly of bird communities throughout their annual cycles. However, the effects of seasonal migration on phylogenetic community structure remain poorly understood. C_LIO_LIWe assess spatiotemporal variation in phylogenetic community structure of North American passerines to test how seasonal migration restructures the evolutionary relatedness and dominant assembly mechanisms in bird communities throughout the annual cycle. Using distributional projections, we calculated metrics describing the phylogenetic dispersion of passerine communities each week of the year. We then tested the relationship between seasonal turnover in community phylogenetic dispersion and seasonal variation in species richness and proportion of migratory species. C_LIO_LISeasonal migration, by changing spatial patterns of avian diversity, simultaneously drives a complex continental redistribution of phylogenetic community structure. We find evidence of taxonomic scale dependency to our results, wherein throughout North America, the seasonal influx of migrant passerines yields communities that are overall more phylogenetically clustered, yet also exhibit greater phylogenetic overdispersion at smaller taxonomic scales. C_LIO_LISeasonal shifts in phylogenetic dispersion, though complex, track changes in diversity, manifesting as fluctuations in phylogenetic dispersion between northern and southern regions as seasonal migrants move between these regions. Our findings reveal a dynamic continental landscape of phylogenetic community structure directed by the movements of seasonal migrants. C_LI

20
Diversity without borders: partitioning continuous spaces using probabilistic equivalent numbers

Castro Sanchez-Bermejo, P.; Hortal, J.; Olsen, E. M.; Ronquillo, C.; Villegas-Rios, D.; Carmona, C. P.

2026-08-11 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.10.743903 medRxiv
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Equivalent numbers represent biodiversity as the effective number of equally distinct units, typically species, and can be partitioned across scales. In practice, they summarize each unit of biodiversity by a single value and compare units pairwise, misrepresenting units that are better described as distributions and the relationships between several units that share the same space. We introduce an equivalent-number index for assemblages of units represented as probability density functions (PDFs) over a continuous space, estimated as the integral of the pointwise maximum across abundance-weighted PDFs. Resulting equivalent PDF numbers fulfil elementary properties of classical equivalent numbers, and support additive partitioning across any number of nested scales. We illustrate the framework with case studies across three domains: (1) measuring trait diversity considering intraspecific variability in grasslands, (2) partitioning realized bioclimatic niches among clades of Carnivora, and (3) understanding seasonal changes in the partitioning of fish home ranges in geographic space.