Ecography

Reliable models of species niches and distributions depend on accurately matching occurrences to environments via spatial and temporal coordinates. For fossil occurrences, time-averaging and age uncertainty can create mismatches between fossils and their associated environments, distorting inferred niches and distributions. Using a virtual ecology approach, we assessed how temporal uncertainty ({+/-}200 years to the full late Quaternary) influences niche and distribution estimates for four virtual species centered on three periods: Holocene (6,000 y.b.p), deglacial (13,500 y.b.p.), and Last Glacial Maximum (18,000 k.y.b.p.). We compared uncertain estimates, derived by matching occurrences with environmental layers drawn from different times within each uncertainty window, against true niches and distributions. We found that during environmentally stable intervals, niches and distributions were robust to temporal uncertainty until it reached {+/-}2500 years. Higher environmental variability reduced accuracy, with the greatest mismatch occurring during the deglacial. These results demonstrate both the promise and limitations of paleodistribution reconstruction.

AimUnderstanding whether invasive species retain or shift their ecological niches has traditionally relied on scalar overlap metrics that quantify the magnitude of niche change, but not its structure. Here, we test whether biological invasions involve a reorganisation of the environmental axes along which native and invasive ranges are differentiated, and whether the dominant axes of this reorganisation are consistently associated with invasion pathway type (intercontinental vs. within-continent). LocationGlobal (North America, Europe, Africa, Asia, Australasia). Time periodContemporary (environmental variables representing long-term averages, 1980-2021). Major taxa studiedFreshwater crayfish (Decapoda: Astacidea): Procambarus clarkii, Faxonius limosus, Pacifastacus leniusculus, Faxonius virilis, Faxonius rusticus. MethodsWe analysed native and invasive occurrences for five globally important crayfish invaders using [~]400 hydrologically resolved environmental variables from the Global Crayfish Database of Geospatial Traits. Classification models were used to quantify environmental differentiation between native and invasive ranges, and feature contributions were aggregated by environmental domain (climate, topography, soil, land cover). Patterns were evaluated across intercontinental and within-continent invasion pathways and assessed for robustness using cross-validation, permutation tests, sample-size sensitivity, and comparisons with classical niche overlap metrics. ResultsNative and invasive occurrences were consistently distinguishable across all species (accuracy 96.5-99.9%). A pathway-dependent pattern emerged: intercontinental invaders were primarily differentiated along climatic dimensions (58-76% of model importance), whereas within-continent invaders showed a more balanced contribution of climatic and topographic variables ([~]42% each), including strong signals from river network position. This contrast was stable across cross-validation folds (SD < 1.6%), and supported by permutation tests (P = 0.001). Classical niche overlap metrics (Schoeners D = 0.30-0.62) did not capture this qualitative distinction. Main conclusionsBiological invasions involve not only changes in niche position but a reorganisation of the environmental axes that distinguish species distributions. Our results suggest that the dominant axes of this reorganisation differ systematically with invasion pathway, reflecting whether species encounter novel climatic regimes or primarily shift within existing climatic space along topographic and network-position gradients. By resolving which environmental dimensions underpin native-invasive differentiation, this approach provides a complementary perspective to scalar overlap metrics and a basis for more mechanistic interpretations of invasion processes.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to support risk assessment for invasive non-native plant species (INNPS), but their performance is constrained by the coverage of occurrence data. Combining occurrences from citizen science (CS) platforms with data from structured state agency (StAg) monitoring provides unique advantages, yet they are rarely integrated. Here, we systematically compare how CS, StAg, and combined (COM) occurrence data influence the inferred environmental niches, predictive performance, and spatial applicability of SDMs for three widespread INNPS (A. altissima, H. mantegazzianum, I. glandulifera) in central Germany. We quantified niche overlap between datasets using PCA and Schoeners D and applied a hierarchical SDM utilizing boosted regression trees, while the Area of Applicability (AOA) was assessed to identify monitoring gaps. CS data were strongly biased toward lower-elevation, urbanized environments, whereas StAg data captured higher-elevation, remote habitats, particularly along watercourses. Niche overlap reflected both invasion stage and habitat preferences: A. altissima, a species that is spreading, showed the lowest overlap. H. mantegazzianum, associated with linear habitats like watercourses and infrastructure, exhibited intermediate overlap, while I. glandulifera, a widespread species, displayed the highest overlap. Overall, combined models achieved the highest predictive performance (AUC: 0.85, TSS: 0.58), reduced uncertainty along environmental gradients and produced more ecologically plausible suitability patterns. AOA analysis revealed high applicability ([&ge;]59%) across data sources and species, with COM models consistently reducing extrapolation uncertainty. Our findings highlight that integrating CS and StAg data reduces spatial biases and enhances SDM robustness, which is vital to improve INNPS risk assessments and management. HighlightsO_LICitizen science and state agency data capture distinct environmental spaces. C_LIO_LIOverlap between data sources is related to invasion stage and habitat preference. C_LIO_LICombined data improves invasive species niche representation and model accuracy. C_LIO_LIAOA analysis reveals monitoring gaps, especially in remote and high-elevation areas. C_LI

Alpine ecosystems are among the most climate sensitive on Earth, yet logistical challenges and detection biases often impede robust assessment of alpine dependent species. We investigated habitat associations and density patterns of the Sierra Nevada subspecies of the Gray-crowned Rosy-Finch (Leucosticte tephrocotis dawsoni), an alpine obligate and regional endemic, over five breeding seasons from 2018 to 2022 using hierarchical distance sampling and mark-recapture distance sampling to explicitly account for imperfect detection and spatial heterogeneity. Density estimates tracked annual snowpack variation, ranging from 4.77 individuals/km{superscript 2} in a low snow year to 12.08 individuals/km{superscript 2} in a high snow year. Abundance was highest near persistent snow patches that provide foraging habitat and near cliffs that provide nesting substrate, and declined sharply above approximately 10% woody cover, with densities approaching zero beyond approximately 25%, indicating a steep ecological threshold. In contrast, the proportion of surveyed blocks with detections remained relatively stable across years. Together, these patterns indicate a three timescale co-limitation framework in which breeding habitat is shaped by static features (cliffs), dynamic annual drivers (snowpack), and longer-term directional change (woody encroachment). By linking population density to climate sensitive habitat features, this study provides a high-resolution abundance-based baseline for long term monitoring and offers a framework for evaluating climate vulnerability in alpine and other resource-limited systems. Open Research StatementData necessary to replicate the analyses and results presented in this manuscript will be archived in the Dryad Digital Repository upon acceptance, with no embargo on the material. The R code associated with this manuscript is not novel. All analyses use publicly available packages and functions without modification, including mrds (v2.3.0), unmarked (v1.2.5), tidyverse (v2.0.0), MuMIn (v1.47.5), and standard ggplot2 visualization tools. All code is properly cited within the manuscript and publicly available through CRAN. Complete analysis scripts will be archived in Dryad alongside the data upon acceptance to facilitate full reproducibility of results.

Theory suggests that different components of environmental fluctuations, from daily and seasonal cycles to multidecadal trends, can have distinct and even opposing effects on species abundances and community dynamics, depending on their specific adaptations. But empirical research that deconstructs the influence of these different cycles on communities is lacking. Here, we used long-term biological monitoring data together with flow records of rivers across New Zealand to (i) investigate the role of fast, slow, and seasonal river-flow fluctuations in structuring macroinvertebrate communities; and (ii) to assess whether life-history and mobility traits mediate the response. Using joint species distribution models, we found striking differences in taxon and community responses to the different components of river flow variation. Responses to slow fluctuations were generally stronger and better predicted by traits, while responses to seasonal fluctuations were highly heterogeneous. Fast increases in flow, typical of flooding events, had pervasive negative effects on species abundances, but the severity of impact partly depended on mobility traits. Our results suggest that different ecological mechanisms underpin the response to distinct environmental fluctuations, highlighting the value of jointly considering multiple temporal scales of variation and species functional traits to understand and predict how communities reorganise under fluctuating environmental regimes.

A major goal of community ecology lies in the deciphering of the processes underlying species distribution. A widespread approach to this question is to identify patterns in species community data and relate them to possible processes. Joint Species Distribution Models (JS-DMs) offer one way to do so through the infernece of association networks that describe patterns of statistical correlations and dependencies between species, but it is unclear what processes can explain the presence of such correlations. While it has now been established that there is no equivalence between JSDM-inferred associations and biotic interactions, the later remain one possible explanation, among others, for the former. However, to our knowledge, there is no specific study of the statistical patterns induced by different types of interactions or of the conditions under which they may or may not appear as statistical correlations / dependencies in species communities. To explore these questions, we propose a "virtual ecologist" approach that consists in simulating community data based on abiotic and biotic processes with the VirtualCom model that emulates the effects of environmental processes and of competition and facilitation interactions. Then, we study to what extent JSDMs retrieve correlations between species that match the simulated interactions. We show that these interactions are better identified when using JSDMs that model partial correlations between species rather than marginal ones. We further demonstrate how critical it is to correctly model abiotic effects in order to identify biotic ones and that the "correct modelling" of these effects depend on the type of interactions at stake.

AimA comprehensive understanding of the spatial distribution of biodiversity is hindered by fragmented datasets, sampling biases, and inconsistent observation protocols. Here, we present a workflow that integrates disparate datasets to produce large scale maps of biodiversity metrics as a basis for management-relevant information tools. We use integrated species distribution modeling (iSDM) to account for sampling biases and disparate data collection techniques, taking advantage of the vast numbers of open datasets available in data aggregators like GBIF. LocationNorway (excluding Svalbard and Jan Mayen) TaxonVascular plants MethodsThe workflow consists of four main steps: data acquisition, data integration, integrated species distribution modelling (iSDM), and the production of derived outputs. Input data include structured surveys, opportunistic observations, and environmental covariates. These are standardised and integrated into a point-processed based iSDM framework to produce species richness maps, associated uncertainties, and sampling effort maps. The outputs are further processed to identify biodiversity hotspots or to summarise species-environment relationships. The workflow used vascular plant data from Norway, combining occurrence-only and presence-absence datasets with environmental covariates. Outputs were generated at a spatial resolution of 500 x 500 meters, balancing accuracy, computational feasibility and relevance for management decisions. High-performance computing resources were utilized for model fitting and predictions. A subset of available data was used to validate the species richness maps. ResultsWe produced detailed maps of species richness, uncertainties and sampling intensity across Norways heterogeneous landscape, incorporating 1218 species in our final results. The species richness patterns highlight patterns consistent with previous mapping efforts. Validation showed an increase in model accuracy when compared to models which did not use an iSDM framework. The workflow highlights limitations in the infrastructure of the currently openly accessible data, particularly the need for more structured presence-absence datasets and standardized metadata. Main conclusionsThis study underscores the potential of workflows that integrate disparate datasets for biodiversity modeling. To maximize accuracy and utility, future efforts should focus on improving data standardization, the publication and collection of more structured data, and fostering data-sharing collaborations. Advances in the workflow itself, including optimising modelling covariates and integrating more comprehensive spatio-temporal aspects, will also increase the relevance of the outputs. These advances will increase our ability to estimate species richness with a precision and accuracy that can reliably inform conservation and management decisions.

The ongoing decline in biodiversity highlights the need for understanding the causes of population changes. This study uses 25-year, large-scale monitoring dataset to investigate the influence of climate and landscape structure on the annual population growth rates of 84 bird species across Poland. Our methodological framework involves the spatiotemporal decomposition of these environmental drivers to decouple demographic effects of long-term carrying capacities from the short-term effects of environmental perturbations. Using species-specific demographic models followed by a community-wide meta-analysis, we evaluated how individual species responses scale up to shape community-level dynamics. The results reveal significant variation in species-specific responses to individual drivers. At the community level, our findings suggest that bird populations are mainly regulated by the long-term spatial constraints rather than short-term disturbances. Persistent environmental heterogeneity had the strongest positive demographic effect on birds, followed by temperature, forest dominance over croplands, and precipitation. In contrast, rapid temporal shifts in environmental heterogeneity and precipitation anomalies negatively affected population growth, whereas urbanisation consistently exerted a negative effect across both spatiotemporal dimensions. Our results highlight the significance of protecting existing heterogeneous and ecotonal habitats, as well as the need to incorporate features that enhance habitat heterogeneity into urban development. Article impact statementPreserving heterogeneous habitats is essential for the conservation of bird populations.

Urbanization and human-induced environmental changes create unique and unprecedented thermal landscapes, yet the extent to which species respond to these changes remains poorly understood. One major challenge in studying these responses is the spatial mismatch between the small scale at which organisms experience their environment and the broader scale at which climate data are typically collected. We use Infrared Thermography (IRT) to quantify the fine scale microclimate in urban and rural habitats used by two tropical agamid lizards, Calotes versicolor and Psammophilus dorsalis. By combining field-based body temperatures and lab-based measures of thermal limits (CTmax, CTmin)and preferences (Tpref), we assess how the thermal heterogeneity of these fine mosaics of microhabitats influence the degree of thermoregulation (k) of these species. We find that thermal responses to urbanization are shaped by species-specific thermal traits and patterns of microhabitat use. Between the species, urban individuals did not differ markedly in habitat thermal heterogeneity, substrate temperature used or degree of thermoconformity. However, within species, P. dorsalis experiences warmer and more heterogeneous conditions in rural habitats, whereas C. versicolor experiences similar thermal conditions across habitats. Calotes versicolor also exhibits broader thermal tolerance and preferred temperature ranges than P. dorsalis. Collectively, our results suggest that P. dorsalis may be more susceptible to the thermal constraints imposed by human-modified landscapes. Overall, we demonstrate the critical need to account for microclimatic conditions and species-specific thermal traits when determining how animals respond to changes in the thermal environment expected from climate change.

Paleobiologists commonly use genera as a proxy for species in biodiversity studies. However, a lingering concern is that patterns among genera might not always faithfully reflect patterns among species. To date, the concern has focused chiefly on measured patterns of richness over time and on implied origination and extinction rates. However, similar issues might arise for studies of morphological disparity. Moreover, there potentially are additional implications of disparity patterns among species versus those among genera concerning the range of observable anatomical characters and whether disparity within genera is comparable to disparity among genera. If clades have some relatively slowly changing characters that workers have used to denote different genera, then we would expect to see congeneric species to cluster in morphospace; however, if such characters are rare, then within-genus disparity might approach among-genus disparity. Here, we use genus-level and species-level disparity patterns among acanthoceratid ammonoids from the Late Cretaceous. In particular, we examine whether these different level imply different evolutionary dynamics over a major ecological event (Ocean Anoxic Event 2) and how disparity within genera (i.e., among congeneric species) compares to disparity among genera. We find genus-level disparity somewhat inflates early acanthoceratid disparity but implies similar patterns over the OAE2. We also find that within-genus disparity is slightly lower than among-genus, but not hugely so. The combined results suggest that acanthoceratoid shell anatomy does not really show "genus" level characters, even if congeneric species do tend to be more similar to each other than to species in other genera. Thus, this might provide more of a warning for other types of studies using anatomical data (e.g., phylogenetic studies) than for disparity studies. Non-technical SummaryMany paleobiologists use genera to examine scientific questions. This leads to questions over whether this broader approach misses important species-level patterns. This study uses acanthoceratid ammonoids from the Late Cretaceous to examine disparity patterns at both the genus-level and the species-level. We specifically examine the disparity at both levels of this group over a time of high stress for this group, Ocean Anoxic Event 2 (OAE2). Our results show that genus-level disparity slightly exaggerates early acanthoceratid disparity but lowers to a similar pattern to the species-level disparity during OAE2. Within-genus disparity is shown to be slightly lower than among-genus, but not enough to be startling. Together, these results indicate that while some species within the same genus tend to be more alike to each other than those in other genera, there isnt a set of true "genus" level characters. This outcome leads to a warning against using anatomical data in phylogenetic studies, but less so for disparity studies.

Effective conservation planning increasingly relies on species distribution models (SDMs) to guide where actions deliver the greatest biodiversity benefits through spatial conservation prioritization. However, SDMs are inherently uncertain, and this uncertainty propagates through prioritization processes, affecting the identification of priority areas and influencing conservation decisions. Here, we evaluate whether correcting SDM overprediction reduces uncertainty propagation into spatial conservation prioritization. Using two large European datasets of vertebrates and invertebrates, we compared unconstrained SDMs with models corrected for overprediction through a Bayesian integration of occurrences, expert range maps, and habitat suitability. We found that overprediction correction reduced spatial and performance uncertainty, with uncertainty strongly structured by model and algorithm choice and amplified when overprediction was not corrected. Although no single modelling adjustment fully eliminates uncertainty propagation from SDMs into prioritization, we demonstrate that overprediction correction consistently reduces it across datasets, taxa, and modelling approaches, highlighting its importance for robust conservation planning.

AimAnalysis of species distributions often rests on the assumption of environmental equilibrium. That is, the distribution of a species (as documented by observation records) captures the full range of environmental conditions under which that species can maintain viable populations. Despite the centrality of this assumption to a variety of biogeographic questions, it is rarely empirically tested. This is particularly critical for recently introduced invasive species that are characterized by rapid expansion in their introduced range, often coupled with a niche shift relative to their native distribution. Defining equilibrium under these dynamic conditions is difficult. We developed the concept of environmental stasis as a more tractable proxy for equilibrium. In the context of species invasions, we define stasis as a prolonged period without an increase in the environmental conditions occupied by a species. LocationNorth America Time Period1614 to 2020. Major Taxa StudiedInvasive plants MethodsWe applied the metric of climatic stasis to a suite of 258 invasive plant species in North America. We categorized their invasion trajectories into three classes (linear, two- and three-phase) based on theoretical expectations and then assessed how many had demonstrated environmental (climatic) stasis over a period of at least thirty years. ResultsMore than 80% of the species were best fit by two- or three-phase models, indicating a declining rate of expansion. Climatic stasis was only documented for 44% of the species. In contrast, 85% of the species were in climatic stasis in their native ranges. The time to reach stasis ranged from 30 to 145 years (mean 90), and species at stasis in their invaded range occupied 97% of the climatic space they occupied in their native range. Main ConclusionsThis assessment provides valuable insight into the unrealized threat posed by the majority of invasive plants that have not yet reached stasis, as well as identifying which species can be most appropriately evaluated by methods that depend on the equilibrium assumption. Our work also demonstrates the useful perspective provided by the environmental stasis concept, which enables empirical quantification of one of the key aspects of equilibrium.

O_LIUnderstanding functional community structure and the niche-based mechanisms that enable coexistence among sympatric species is essential for explaining how biodiversity is maintained in natural systems, and for anticipating how ecological communities will respond to ongoing environmental change. Stable isotope analysis provides a process-oriented perspective on resource use by integrating information across time and space, thereby allowing reconstruction of realised isotopic niches that reflect multiple dimensions of ecological differentiation. C_LIO_LIWe applied this framework to a community of ungulates in the Central-Eastern Italian Alps, including red deer (Cervus elaphus), roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), and Alpine chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra). Using stable isotope ratios in summer-grown hair segments ({delta}13C, {delta}15N, {delta}34S, {delta}18O, {delta}2H), we quantified species-specific n-dimensional niche hypervolumes within a Bayesian framework and estimated niche regions, overlap probabilities, univariate differentiation and multivariate structure. C_LIO_LIDespite broad dietary overlap typically observed among these ungulates, we found clear isotopic niche segregation, with mean pairwise overlap consistently remaining below 40%. Three dimensions emerged as primary drivers of differentiation: water sourcing ({delta}18O), diet quality ({delta}15N), and habitat openness ({delta}13C). Specifically, chamois appeared to derive more water from plants in their diet rather than from drinking, and to consume a higher-quality diet compared to Cervids. Red deer relied more heavily on forested habitats for resource use compared to roe deer and chamois, and additional isotopic differences between red deer and roe deer may stem from fine-scale abiotic conditions like microclimate and topography. We found no isotopic evidence for differential niche breadth among the three ungulate species. C_LIO_LITogether, these patterns highlight functional differentiation across multiple ecological axes, offering mechanistic insight into how these ungulates segregate realised niche space despite substantial potential for resource overlap. This multi-element isotope perspective underscores the value of integrative, process-based approaches for understanding current coexistence as well as improving predictions of how mammal communities may reorganise under accelerating environmental change. C_LI

O_LIStandardising temperature data across heterogeneous study sites is essential for ecological meta-analyses, yet elevation-driven lapse rates often confound direct comparisons of coarse-grid climate data. Ecological studies frequently document only site altitude - particularly historical datasets - limiting analysis of thermal influences on spatial organism distribution. C_LIO_LIA dual-approach protocol was developed to derive regional correction factors ({Delta}H) from altitude-temperature regressions (Lapse Rate Method: SW Germany/Italian Alps, n=33 stations) and cross-regional station pairs (TAV Matching Method, n=27) with closely aligned long-term mean temperatures ({Delta}TAV [&le;] 1.2{degrees}C). Applied to 109 Ixodes ricinus study sites across nine European regions, correction factors were calculated only for regions with consistent altitude shifts ({Delta}H > 100m) relative to Southwest German reference stations. C_LIO_LIRegional correction factors ({Delta}H) from both methods included +1300 m (Finland, TAV Matching), +370 m (Netherlands/NE Germany, TAV Matching), and -220 m (Italian Alps, Lapse Rate Method) across five regions. In total, 27 cross-regional TAV matched pairs demonstrated high matching precision (median {Delta}TAV = 0.05{degrees}C, 89 % [&le;] 0.2{degrees}C). These factors standardised site altitudes to a common SW German thermal reference frame, enabling cross-site comparability. C_LIO_LIThe dual-method protocol requires no automation and is applicable to any taxa with documented site altitudes. The complete methodological workflow - including station data, lapse rate regressions, matching decisions, and correction calculations is publicly available at Zenodo [DOI 10.5281/zenodo.18835116], providing ecologists with a pragmatic, fully reproducible template for elevation-standardised temperature estimation in meta-analyses. C_LI

Identifying how and why species vary in their ability to adjust to rapidly changing climates is a key challenge in ecology. While phenological shifts are well documented for birds and often studied in the context of tracking resource availability, less is known about the extent to which adjustments in phenology allow populations to track a consistent thermal niche. In particular, there has been little examination of how the extent of phenological thermal niche tracking compares over time versus space; a comparison that has the potential to inform on the underlying mechanisms. Here, we use data on breeding phenology derived from BTO Nest Record Scheme data, to examine the extent to which 13 passerine bird species track a consistent incubation thermal niche across years (both interannually and a year gradient) and along latitudinal and elevational gradients, and whether migrant and resident species differ in their tracking ability. Overall, we found support across species for partial tracking, with all species showing trends consistent with partial tracking across one or more axis, though for one species we could not reject the null hypothesis of no tracking. When we looked at average trends across species, we found significant tracking across interannual variation, latitude, and elevation, but not across a year trend. However, we found no evidence that tracking differs between residents and migrants, and for only a few species did we found evidence that species incubation thermal niche impacts on fitness. Taken together, our findings highlight the extent to which shifts in phenology can allow birds to track a thermal niche in a changing climate. The timing of a thermal niche provides a useful and widely-applicable yardstick to examine how changes in climate will impact on the abiotic conditions that populations experience.

AimHuman land-use change contributes to biodiversity declines, but also creates new niches that facilitate novel biotic interactions. These interactions can reshape ecological communities and ecosystem function, yet remain poorly understood. Swiftlets and swallows in Southeast Asia present a classic example: coexistence is facilitated by fine-scale diet partitioning, with population sizes historically limited by available nesting substrates. However, several species now nest on manmade structures, particularly "nest farms" built to harvest edible swiftlet nests. We evaluated whether land-use change, especially the spread of nest farms, is leading to breakdowns in niche partitioning and increased competition among six sympatric swiftlets and swallows. LocationNorthern Borneo MethodsWe calculated geographic niche overlap using species distribution models (SDMs) with different environmental predictors, hypothesizing greater overlap when land-use variables were included. We then implemented joint species distribution models (JSDMs) to partition shared environmental responses from potential biotic interactions, predicting that competition would emerge as negative residual correlations. We used sightings from citizen-science datasets and structured surveys to evaluate the influence of climate, land-use, nest farms, morphology, and foraging behavior on species occurrences. ResultsSDMs that included land-use variables showed high niche overlap, suggesting that human activity homogenizes niches. The optimal JSDM, based on structured survey data, identified distance to nest farms as the strongest predictor of occurrence for all species, with species showing both positive and negative responses. Morphology and behavior had small effects, and residual correlations were weak, indicating limited unexplained biotic interactions. Main conclusionsHuman activity, through the creation of artificial nesting sites, broadly drives co-occurrence of swallows and swiftlets across our study region. These effects appear to operate primarily through environmental filtering rather than direct competition. Our findings reveal substantial and complex impacts of land-use change and anthropogenic nest sites on the distribution and composition of aerial insectivore communities.

The concern about how climate change affects marine ecosystems is growing, despite the international commitment to reduce the rate of CO2 emissions. Predicting amphipod species responses to ocean warming is critical due to their high abundance and key ecological role in marine ecosystems. We applied Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling on 17 selected benthic amphipod species across different ocean depths and feeding groups to evaluate their response to different future climate change scenarios. We used SSP 2.6 (low CO2 emission scenario) and SSP 8.5 scenarios (high CO2 emission scenario) on a global scale projected to the years 2050 and 2100. We further employed linear mixed-effects models (LMMs) to reveal differences in feeding groups responses across different scenarios and time scales. The projected distributions exhibited the reshaping of amphipod species composition areas, including potential local extinctions and the possibility of invasions into new locations. Multiple environmental variables contributed to the model outputs predicting future distributions across different feeding groups. Chlorophyll concentration and turbidity contributed majorly in predicting the future distribution of deposit feeders, while temperature and O2 were more influential for suspension feeders and herbivorous amphipods. Our findings indicated that trophic ecology mediates climate sensitivity, as a significant interaction between feeding types and two scenarios was observed. These findings highlight that climate change may dramatically alter the functional composition of benthic communities and their ecological roles, beyond simple changes in species distributions, emphasizing the need to consider ecological roles and trophic identity when assessing climate impacts on marine ecosystems.

O_LIAnimal-mediated seed dispersal is key for the maintenance and functioning of tropical ecosystems. Specifically, in the Cerrado, the largest Neotropical savanna and a global biodiversity hotspot, nearly 60% of plant species rely on animals for dispersal. C_LIO_LIClimate change threatens these interactions by affecting species distributions, reshaping communities, and potentially decoupling plants from their dispersers. Anticipating how such disruptions may alter seed dispersal networks is particularly relevant for understanding the resilience of future tropical ecosystems. C_LIO_LIHere, we combined empirical data on 139 pairwise plant-frugivore interactions with species distribution forecasts to build probabilistic interaction matrices under present and future climate scenarios, which were then used to construct 6,221 local seed dispersal networks. Using ecological niche modelling, we tested how climate change influences species range size and centroid displacement. Then, we evaluated whether such changes translate into losses of pairwise plant-frugivore co-occurrence. Finally, we investigated how these changes in occurrence overlap may affect key structural properties of future local seed dispersal networks. C_LIO_LIWe forecast that by the 2070s, under a business-as-usual climate scenario, species are likely to contract their ranges by 56 {+/-} 33% and shift their distribution centroids by 88 {+/-} 57 km within the Cerrado, leading to a 27 {+/-} 29% loss in plant-frugivore co-occurrence mainly driven by reductions in plant species distributions. At the community level, these losses will lead to smaller and more nested networks and specialized, indicating a structural simplification of seed dispersal systems in the Cerrado. C_LIO_LISynthesis: By combining empirical data on animal-mediated seed dispersal with forecasts of species distributions, we found that climate change may simplify frugivore-plant interaction networks in the Cerrado by decreasing species ranges and co-occurrence of partners. Our study demonstrates that future climate may pose a threat not only to species distributions but also to ecological interactions, such as seed dispersal, that are key to enabling climate-tracking by plants. Thus, preventing the simplification of interaction networks will be essential to conserve biodiversity in species-rich regions. C_LI

The small mammals in the tropical savannas of northern Australia, have undergone a degree of change in recent decades, best documented in the Northern Territory. Data is limited from northern Queensland and though the same trends are assumed, the topographic and climatic features differ substantially. In this study we examined data systematically collected from 725 sites between 1998-2012 in three bioregions representing a climatic gradient: from semi-arid to monsoon tropical savannas. We investigated via information-theoretic models and model averaging, the relationship between five mammal groupings and three landscape variables (fractional cover green, elevation and vegetation diversity) to elucidate any consistent or different patterns in the mammal fauna. Key patterns included relationships with increasing elevation (critical weight range species richness positively associated with elevation, rodent species richness negatively associated), increasing rodent and dasyurid species richness with vegetation diversity, and lower macropod and dasyurids abundance with increasing fractional cover green. These relationships underscore a need to consider mammal conservation in Queensland with more nuance than in the more topographically inert Northern Territory. Management strategies need to be more attuned to taxonomic and regional differences, to prevent perverse outcomes.

Enhanced AbstractO_ST_ABSBackgroundC_ST_ABSThere is overwhelming evidence that global change is having widespread, detrimental impacts on biodiversity. Population declines and local disappearances have been recorded with increasing frequency across all taxa, resulting in a steady rise in the number of threatened species. However, the number of documented extinctions remains counterintuitively low ([~] 1000 species across all kingdoms) compared to the sense of emergency pervading the scientific community. In isolation, that figure might fuel scepticism about the biodiversity crisis, but when put into context, it reveals that current extinction rates might be comparable to those that occurred during past mass extinction events estimated from the fossil record ([&ge;] 75% extinctions within < 2 million years). Although this is an important clue supporting the claim that we might now be witnessing a new ( sixth) mass extinction, it falls short of definitive proof. The claim bears such high importance that it requires exceptionally solid foundations. However, our main aim was not to ascertain whether current extinction rates qualify as a new mass extinction event in progress. Instead, we examined the intersection of potential future loss scenarios and species discovery rates to address the fundamental question of whether and when we will be able to confirm a mass extinction is under way. AdvancesOur extrapolations suggest that the timing for a mass extinction to materialise (2,604-34,808 years from now at 75% diversity loss) is consistent with past mass extinctions (e.g., 12,000-108,000 years estimated for the Permian-Triassic extinction to unfold) under modern extinction rates (loss of 0.004%-0.053% of global species richness per year). We identify the minimum necessary conditions in which we could confirm a mass extinction under the full range of assumptions related to total species diversity (ranging from < 1.8 million to 163.2 million animal species) and discovery rates (e.g., [~] 13,110 new animal species described per year as of 2026, with the number growing by [~]77 species per year), and the associated timeframe required. We show that there are many realistic future scenarios where we would fail to detect a mass extinction in progress. OutlookBased on available evidence, the rate of global biodiversity loss might already be consistent with the standard definition of a mass extinction. But even if true, current extinction rate estimates (20-8343 times background rates) would not necessarily imply a mass extinction is currently unfolding, because this claim can only be verified a posteriori. Our projections instead indicate that there is a high risk of not recognising a mass extinction as it unfolds -- 49% across all parametrisations we explored. Furthermore, the temporal scale required for a mass extinction to materialise is orders of magnitude longer than relevant policy and legislative horizons, a mismatch that might appear to absolve todays society of responsibility. In reality, the opposite is true -- underestimating the likelihood of already being on a trajectory toward a mass extinction could have catastrophic consequences for future generations and historical accountability. Future generations will be forced to confront a world they perceive as normal, unaware of how much better off humanity could have been.