Biostatistics

The incidence rate ratio R is the standard measure for comparing event rates in clinical trials and epidemiology. In vaccine trials, the vaccine efficacy is VE = 1 - R. When events are rare, the two arm counts are Poisson. The estimator of R is heteroskedastic: its sampling variance changes with the data. So no fixed-width interval covers correctly everywhere. The usual log-Wald interval is undefined at zero events and covers poorly at small counts. Early vaccine and drug-safety readouts fall in exactly this regime. We show that a single reparameterization collapses this bivariate problem to an effective one-parameter family with a quadratic variance function, whose variance-stabilizing transformation is 2 arcsinh(sqrt(R)). The reduction yields a closed-form confidence interval for R. Its two leading errors, a curvature bias and the variability of the estimated scale, each admit a closed-form correction with no tuning constants. In a Monte Carlo study of our seven arcsinh variants and five competitors, the +Curve+Stu variant covers within 0.002 of the nominal 0.95 for about 50 control and 5 treatment events. Its width is on par with the best competitor. It avoids the conservatism and zero-count breakdown of log-Wald and MOVER. For moderate counts, we recommend this interval; for sparser data, our Bar-Lev and Enis count-shift variant is more robust. The result is a ready-to-use, closed-form interval for the low-count regime. We illustrate it on early Covid-19 vaccine-efficacy readouts and provide reference implementations in R and Python.

Background During the COVID-19 pandemic, public health agencies used near real-time observational data to answer questions regarding vaccine effectiveness. However, traditional observational methods do not allow conclusions regarding counterfactual scenarios to be drawn from clinical data. Counterfactuals, which are outcomes that would have occurred under alternative interventions, can be used to formally assess the causal effects of public health interventions on health outcomes while accounting for the effects of confounding. Ideally individual patient data is used for the development of counterfactuals. Low-fidelity synthetic data may be useful for advancing methodological development where governance and privacy constraints prohibit access to sensitive personal data. Methods We simulated synthetic datasets based on the EAVE-II COVID-19 platform which has been limited to use for surveillance purposes. EAVE-II includes almost all resident people in Scotland registered with qualified general medical practitioners. Patient characteristics were simulated to reflect the known distribution of the Scottish population, accounting for dependencies between variables. Each synthetic dataset was encoded to different realistic scenarios for EAVEII 'ground truth' vaccine rollout and effectiveness results, explicitly stating the causal and confounding mechanisms, using a statistically sound method based on marginal structural models. Synthetic datasets of 100,000 individuals were then generated across five confounding scenarios and five severe outcome types. Results In scenarios with weak confounding, both unweighted and inverse probability of treatment weighted (IPTW) logistic regression recovered the true causal parameters. As confounding strength increased, only weighted models recovered the true mechanism. Conclusions Low-fidelity synthetic datasets simulated from EAVE-II data analysts to build and test causal inference pipelines, develop novel analysis pipelines, and train new researchers while awaiting access to real data. We showed how to generate synthetic datasets from a marginal structural model under different confounding scenarios.

Polygenic scores are imperfect measures of the additive genetic effects of common genetic variants. The resulting measurement error biases estimates of quantities of interest in epidemiological analyses integrating polygenic scores. For example, how much of an exposure-outcome association is genetically confounded can be substantially underestimated when using polygenic scores alone. Here we present extensions to Gsens, a genetic sensitivity analysis, which aims to correct for such measurement error using both polygenic scores and heritability estimates. Gsens now allows for multiple exposures and estimates several quantities of interest, i.e. genetic confounding, adjusted residual association (net of genetic confounding), genetic overlap and environmentally mediated genetic effects. We present derivations and simulations showing how Gsens accounts for measurement error in the polygenic score; we also show how estimation may be affected by misspecifications of the causal structure between exposures. Applying Gsens in the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study (MoBa), we uncover, among other results, substantial genetic confounding in the associations between multiple known risk factors for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), such as low birth weight and temperament, and measures of ADHD in childhood. The updated Gsens R package offers multiple options, including for missing data handling and customisable syntax. Our extended version of Gsens is applicable to a broad range of substantive questions in multiple disciplines.

As machine learning and artificial intelligence systems are increasingly used in healthcare, rigorous evaluation of their classification performance has become critical. The F1 and F{beta} scores are widely adopted metrics for assessing performance in imbalanced biomedical data. Recently, we introduced psF1, a unified statistical framework for inference and study design for single and comparative F1 and F{beta} scores under the assumption of independent classifiers. In practice, however, benchmarking two classifiers on the same dataset creates a correlated paired setting. Ignoring this intrinsic dependency leads to overestimation of the standard error and a substantial loss of statistical power. To address this, we develop psF1pair, an advanced framework for statistical inference and power analysis that explicitly accounts for correlations between classifier pairs. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate the performance of psF1pair, and its utility is further illustrated through application to a real-world imaging classification system. As expected, higher correlation between classifiers yields narrower confidence intervals and enhanced statistical power. A freely available R package is provided to facilitate implementation, supporting accurate evaluation and study design for predictive and classification models in biomedical research.

Automated interpretation of neuroimaging studies requires simultaneous assessment of multiple imaging evidence variables, each tied to distinct anatomical structures. Vision-language models (VLMs) offer a unified framework for multi-task analysis, but adapting pre-trained VLMs remains challenging. Full fine-tuning is computationally prohibitive, and joint multi-task training requires simultaneous access to all task data, which is often infeasible in clinical settings. Although model merging enables multi-task composition without joint re-training, existing methods focus on post-hoc algorithms with limited extension to VLMs and minimal application to neuroimaging. Here, we present GRadient-guided Adapter Merging (GRAM), a layer-selective low-rank adaptation (LoRA)-based fine-tuning and merging framework for multi-task neuroimaging visual question-answering (VQA). GRAM uses a gradient ratio that contrasts class-specific gradients to identify task-discriminative layers, and applies subspace-constrained projected gradient descent to restrict LoRA updates to directions consistent with the geometry of the pre-trained model. We leveraged a structured VQA benchmark, developed from the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (NACC) dataset, that pairs multi-sequence brain MRI studies with question-answer pairs across clinically relevant imaging evidence variables. Experiments on the VQA benchmark showed that GRAM outperformed or matched all-layer LoRA fine-tuning and a standard merging baseline while reducing inter-task interference during merging, and approached or surpassed the performance of joint multi-task training without joint re-training.

Causal effect estimates can often be biased in clinical and epidemiological studies as patient cohorts frequently exhibit substantial covariate imbalances between treated and control groups, often amplified in multicentre studies due to heterogeneous recruitment, clinical practice, and case mix. Covariate balancing methods are therefore essential for valid causal inference. However, their application becomes challenging when data are distributed across cohorts and cannot be pooled because of privacy, legal, or institutional constraints, leaving a gap in practical methods for causal effect estimation in federated and imbalanced clinical data settings. We develop a privacy-preserving framework for covariate balancing and causal effect estimation across distributed data providers, combining federated aggregation with differential privacy to enable propensity score subclassification and matching without sharing individual-level records. Matching relies on non-disclosive quantities and differentially private distance evaluation, and the resulting matched subsets remain local to each server. Balance can be assessed through federated diagnostics and privacy-preserving visualisations, and we provide secure estimators for average treatment effects with associated uncertainty quantification. We implement this framework in the DataSHIELD federated analysis platform via 2 R packages. In simulations, we demonstrate agreement between federated and centralised analyses in the absence of privacy noise and quantify the bias--variance trade-offs induced by differential privacy. We illustrate applicability in two multinational settings-a Long COVID cohort and very preterm birth cohorts-showing that the approach enables practical causal analyses under real-world data protection constraints. The DataSHIELD packages are available on Github. Additional methodological details are provided in the Supplementary Material.

Controlled human infection models (CHIMs) are increasingly used in infectious disease research to study pathogen dynamics and evaluate interventions under controlled conditions. However, these studies are resource-intensive and involve ethical and safety constraints, making efficient study design critical. Dose-finding is a key early component in CHIMs, where the aim is to identify a challenge dose that achieves a target infection probability. Traditional rule-based designs are commonly used but can be inefficient, motivating the use of model-based adaptive approaches such as the Bayesian Continual Reassessment Method (CRM). Although CRM has been extensively studied and widely adopted in Phase I oncology trials for identifying the maximum tolerated dose of therapeutics, its application in CHIM settings remains limited, particularly when the endpoint of interest is infection. This tutorial provides step-by-step guidance for implementing a Bayesian CRM in dose-finding CHIMs, using an oropharyngeal Neisseria gonorrhoeae challenge as a motivating case study. The framework outlines key design components, including dose-grid specification, dose-response model, prior elicitation, Bayesian updating, decision rules, and stopping criteria, with particular emphasis on a clinically interpretable parameterisation. Trial operating characteristics are evaluated through simulation studies under multiple dose-response scenarios and prior-predictive analyses, and compared with a commonly used '3+3' type rule-based design. This work highlights the advantages of Bayesian model-based designs for dose-finding in CHIMs over classic rule-based designs and provides a structured, reproducible framework for implementing CRM, supporting their application in future CHIM studies.

As population-scale whole-genome sequencing datasets continue to expand, they enable genetic association studies beyond single-nucleotide variants to more complex forms of genetic variation, including classical human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles. The HLA region comprises nine highly polymorphic classical HLA genes in extensive linkage disequilibrium that are associated with numerous autoimmune and infectious diseases. However, unlike genome-wide association studies of single-nucleotide variants, there is no general guidance for controlling the multiple-testing burden in HLA allele association analyses. Here, we systematically evaluated the effective number of independent HLA allele tests using sequencing data from diverse genetic ancestries, analytical derivation and simulations. We show that the multiple-testing burden depends on genetic ancestry, allele frequency, and the phenotype model, but remains remarkably stable across minor allele count thresholds, corresponding to approximately 60-70% of the total number of tested HLA alleles. Simulations further demonstrate that the effective number of tests can exceed 90% under realistic disease models. Analyses of 4-field HLA alleles from long-read sequencing showed that higher typing resolution increases the number of alleles but preserves the underlying correlation structure and scales the effective number of independent tests proportionally. Our results provide practical guidance for HLA association studies and support Bonferroni correction based on the total number of tested HLA alleles as a simple and robust approximation when permutation-based approaches are impractical.

Mapping hierarchical brain networks within traditional Euclidean space causes significant structural distortion, undermining neuroimaging diagnostic frameworks. While hyperbolic models like the Poincare ball preserve these nested topologies, they demand heavy computational overhead due to intricate Mobius operations and curved geodesics. This paper introduces a highly efficient non-Euclidean framework for analyzing neurocognitive decline utilizing the Beltrami-Klein ball model. By projecting hyperbolic geodesics as Euclidean straight lines, this approach converts complex distance calculations into simple dot products, radically reducing processing demands. We validated our methodology against state-of-the-art Poincare and Lorentz baselines using datasets for Schizophrenia, Parkinsons Disease, and Alzheimers Disease. The Klein-based framework demonstrates superior performance, delivering both higher diagnostic precision and accelerated processing velocities across all three neurocognitive disorders.

Genome-scale Perturb-seq screens prioritize candidate targets by the strength of a perturbations transcriptional effect. Effect strength does not answer a prior measurement question: is the readout dependable? A large effect estimated from a single guide, a single donor, or a pseudobulk of few cells need not survive replication, and for target prioritization each false lead costs a validation experiment. We treat each perturbation effect as a measurement in a crossed Target x Guide x Donor x Condition design and apply generalizability theory (Brennan, 2001; Cronbach et al., 1972) to separate the dependable part of an effect from facet-specific idiosyncrasy. Guides and donors enter as random facets; condition enters as a fixed facet and is analyzed within its levels. For each target we report a dependability profile over the facets and a joint generalizability coefficient over the two random facets, and we re-rank targets by effect magnitude weighted by that coefficient. On the released screen (Zhu et al., 2025), removing the measurement-error floor estimated from the non-targeting controls raises the number of genes with a dependable target-signal share above .10 from 40 to 7,674. Analyzed within activation states, dependability recovers the T-cell-receptor signaling module as reliably measurable only in activated cells, without recourse to gene annotation. A design study indicates that reliability is limited by the number of guides rather than the number of donors, so a future screen should add guides. Every methodological decision was recorded and adversarially reviewed, and all results regenerate from the released summary statistics.

Malaria subnational tailoring is often a population-level allocation problem: which interventions should be prioritized, at what coverage, and under what budget and uncertainty assumptions? We present DELENDA, a differentiable compartmental model of Plasmodium falciparum transmission designed for posterior calibration and intervention-mix optimization. We fit a NUTS posterior jointly to age-stratified prevalence and clinical-incidence data from five sub-Saharan African sites plus three pre-intervention Garki Project villages, spanning a broad entomological inoculation rate (EIR) range. DELENDA is implemented in JAX, which makes the full simulation differentiable. This enables efficient Bayesian inference and continuous constrained optimization over intervention coverage. We apply the framework to an illustrative decision problem: a highly seasonal transmission setting where coverage is optimized for ITNs, SMC, IRS, and pediatric malaria vaccination across EIR, budget, objective, and uncertainty grids. Three findings are decision-relevant. First, intervention rankings are more robust than projected impact: posterior, vector-biology, and intervention-efficacy uncertainty change optimized coverage modestly but substantially widen the distribution of cases averted. Second, the objective matters: under-five optimization brings child-targeted SMC and vaccination in earlier, whereas all-age optimization delays vaccination and favors broader population protection through IRS. Third, cost uncertainty is mainly a constraint-side problem: expected-cost optima have material budget-overrun probability, while tail-risk budget rules sharply reduce overrun risk at the cost of lower effective coverage and fewer expected cases averted. DELENDA therefore demonstrates an uncertainty-first approach to subnational tailoring: differentiable model structure exposes the biological parameter space to posterior calibration and carries biological and operational uncertainty into constrained decision optimization, tasks that are difficult with the non-differentiable models currently central to SNT workflows.

Stochastic epidemic models are a cornerstone of infectious disease epidemiology and are often used to study intervention scenarios. However, large run-to-run variability can make intervention effects difficult to estimate precisely. We revisit the epidemic Sellke construction, which assigns each individual an infection threshold for the cumulative infection hazard such that, conditional on the thresholds, the epidemic trajectory becomes deterministic. This enables coupling of simulations with and without an intervention, yielding low-variance effect estimates even when outcomes such as final size or peak incidence vary widely between runs. We develop an exact, event-driven implementation that maintains infection and recovery events in priority queues. Cumulative infection-hazard updates require O(log N) time per event, yielding overall complexity O(Elog N) for E events in a population of size N. The implementation achieves computational performance comparable to the classical Gillespie algorithm while naturally accommodating non-Markovian infectious periods and complex infectiousness profiles. We illustrate the approach using distance-dependent spread of avian influenza between poultry farms in the Netherlands and a multilayer population with households, schools, and workplaces. In both examples, coupling enables efficient within-run comparisons of intervention scenarios across stochastic realisations.

Background: Increased public access to data from disparate sources provides opportunities to study and validate predictive and subphenotype models in heterogeneous disease conditions using aggregated individual patient data. Robust, explicit, and transparent harmonization of data elements is critical to ensure interpretability, reproducibility, and generalizability of secondary and retrospective analyses. Methods & Results: We designed and implemented ADAPT (Aggregating Data to Accelerate Personalized Therapy), a scalable framework using multiple software packages (R, SQL, BigQuery) that enables rapid, explicit harmonization of structured data elements from randomized trials and observational studies using a standard spreadsheet interface. User-specified criteria are applied to primary study data to produce harmonized longitudinal datasets comprised of demographics, medical history, quantitative observations, repeated measures, and clinical outcomes. We demonstrate this functionality using 26 clinical studies found in the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute BioLINCC resource. We illustrate the scalability of ADAPT to the order of billions of datapoints using administrative clinical data in a cloud-computing platform. We also present examples of collaborators using ADAPT for independent harmonization tasks for secondary analyses and democratization of publicly available data. Conclusion: ADAPT is a disease-agnostic, extensible, and scalable platform to support robust, transparent harmonization of structured research data using interfaces accessible to a variety of researchers regardless of programming ability. It extends FAIR principles beyond research data to also represent harmonization analyses by improving Findability of harmonization decisions, Accessibility of methods to other stakeholders, Interoperability with independent analyses and datasets, and Reusability through efficient implementation in a variety of analysis environments.

Background Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia (SAB) is clinically heterogeneous. Potential heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) have recently been identified through analysis of patient subgroups, identified using routine clinical variables.However, the impact of misclassifying patients into these groups is unclear, and practical strategies to improve HTE detection remain uncertain. Methods We performed a simulation study using published data from selected randomised trials and observational studies in SAB. We assessed the impact of varying classification accuracy (70%-100%) on i) power, ii) type I error, and iii) bias in post-hoc analyses of HTE. We then evaluated two strategies to improve performance: enrichment designs, in which only patients predicted to belong to a target subgroup are randomised, and the use of ordinal rather than binary outcomes. Results Even with perfect classification, post-hoc detection of heterogeneous treatment effects remained highly conditional on subgroup prevalence, baseline mortality, and effect size. One subgroup was detectable at moderate sample sizes; however, power was inadequate for all other subgroups even with sample sizes of 20,000. Decreasing classification accuracy reduced power, increased type I error, and introduced bias. Enrichment marginally improved power. Ordinal outcomes substantially improved performance when they matched the treatment-effect structure, but were worse when they did not. Conclusions Detecting HTE in SAB is challenging, but not uniformly infeasible. Feasibility depends on the interaction between subgroup frequency, baseline risk, classifier performance, and outcome choice. To advance stratified medicine in SAB, research should prioritize robust classifiers, outcome measures matched to the expected mechanism and pattern of treatment effect, and trial designs that acknowledge uncertainty in subgroup prevalence and treatment-effect structure.

Objectives. Radiomics pipelines extract hundreds of quantitative features that are widely known to be redundant, but the structure of this redundancy is usually treated as a per-dataset nuisance to be pruned away. We tested the alternative hypothesis that a substantial number of feature-feature correlations are universal: they persist across patients and across anatomically distinct structures because they reflect shared mathematical and image-statistical properties of how the image is summarised, rather than properties of the tissue being imaged. Materials and Methods. We re-analysed the publicly available Radiomics Atlas Dataset of normal Abdominal and Pelvic CT (RADAPT), restricting the analysis to the 526 non-contrast-enhanced examinations of the 531-subject atlas and to the 107 original (non-filtered) PyRadiomics features. The 53 segmented structures were grouped into four broad anatomical categories -- bones, muscles, vessels, and parenchymal organs. RADAPT is distributed as one Excel file per structure, with patients as rows and features as columns. Within each structure file we z-score-normalised every feature across patients, computed the absolute Spearman correlation matrix, and retained edges with |{rho}| [≥] {tau} for {tau} in {0.70, 0.80, 0.90}. We then intersected the edge sets across all structure files to obtain a "universal" correlation graph, in which an edge survives only if it exceeds the threshold in every structure (each estimated across the full patient sample). Stable feature communities were defined as the maximal cliques of this graph. Robustness to patient sampling was tested by repeating the entire pipeline on five independent random splits of each file into two patient halves (10 sub-cohorts per threshold), and the implementation was independently reproduced in R. Results. Despite the strictness of the global-intersection criterion, 34, 24, and 14 stable feature communities survived at {tau} = 0.70, 0.80, and 0.90 respectively, with the largest cliques containing six members at {tau} = 0.70 and {tau} = 0.80 and five members at {tau} = 0.90. The community structure was clearly interpretable: separate cliques captured (i) variance-like intensity dispersion, (ii) long-run / low-frequency (coarse) texture, (iii) high gray-level texture, (iv) low gray-level texture, (v) volume and surface shape, and (vi) local-homogeneity and energy/entropy duals. On random-half resampling the exact-match recovery rate of these communities was 81.5 %, 86.7 %, and 80.7 % across the three thresholds; departures from exact recovery were almost always a single boundary feature added or dropped, consistent with finite-sample fluctuation of near-threshold edges rather than structural instability. The R re-implementation reproduced the Python results exactly. Conclusion. A substantial portion of radiomics feature collinearity is universal across patients and tissues. We distinguish two layers within it: trivial near-algebraic duals that are universal by construction, and non-trivial cross-matrix-family communities that are the genuine empirical finding. Together they provide an interpretable, definition-grounded basis for aggressive dimensionality reduction, for retrospectively reconciling apparently different feature selections in the literature, and for moving radiomics pipelines toward organ-agnostic, more reproducible models. Clinical relevance statement. Selecting a single representative feature from each universal community shrinks the original-feature space by roughly an order of magnitude without sacrificing biologically distinct information. For example, the five variance-family members (first-order Variance, GLCM SumSquares, GLCM ClusterTendency, GLDM and GLRLM GrayLevelVariance) can be replaced by a single representative, removing redundant degrees of freedom that would otherwise inflate model variance; and labelling each retained feature by its community lets two studies that selected different variance-family names be recognised as having found the same signal, simplifying model development and improving cross-cohort generalisability in clinical CT workflows.

Accurately attributing causes of death is vital for global health, yet fewer than 5% of deaths in resource-constrained regions are medically certified. To assign causes to these unlabeled deaths at scale, practitioners traditionally rely on verbal autopsy, using supervised statistical models to classify based on structured survey data. However, modern mortality surveillance increasingly collects rich, unstructured multimodal data, such as free-text caregiver narratives and postmortem diagnostics, which traditional supervised statistical models struggle to seamlessly integrate. In this paper, we present a comprehensive, multimodal benchmark for cause-of-death classification using data from the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network, a unique surveillance platform spanning nine countries across South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Using this dataset, we introduce an evaluation framework designed to rigorously assess diagnostic reasoning, moving beyond traditional metrics that fail to capture complex clinical realities. We demonstrate the utility of this benchmark by evaluating zero-shot large language models against supervised baselines across various data modalities. Our results reveal distinct differences in how these modeling approaches synthesize unstructured medical evidence. This benchmark provide a rigorously defined resource for assessing clinical reasoning in next-generation mortality surveillance.

Background Averagebased summaries serve individual patients poorly PORTRAIT is a calibrated abstentionaware tool that describes where one patient sits relative to a reference population across 12 cardiometabolic markers how confident that placement is and which features drive it PORTRAIT describes it does not diagnose or predict Abstention is a designed feature given the known limits of conditional coverage Methods Conformal calibration was combined with distributionfree coverage bounds quantileregression coordinates and copulabased joint structure A frozen reference cohort n9421 supplied fixed calibration a heldout cohort n2247 tested transportability across six strata A release gate required the minimum perslice coverage to hold across 4 of 5 seeds Coverage was retested under survey weighting to the US adult population Coherence was reported as a descriptive joint coordinate Discrimination was summarised with Harrells C and multiplicity controlled by BHFDR Interface conformance was assessed against defined requirements Nielsen heuristics and WCAG 22 AA with attention to automation bias and riskgraph design Results The frozen reference held all six strata within band 08640903 at abstention 0113 whereas a resplit undercovered to 071 at abstention 0227 coverage survived survey weighting The release gate passed on 4 of 5 seeds at abstention 0101 against a nominal 090 and in the frozenreference configuration that ships all six strata held inside the calibrated band 08640903 Coherence showed orthogonality 0444 to raw extremity and correlated 0892 with a copulaMahalanobis distance while remaining deliberately nonidentical so it adds perfeature information Two transfer tests returned negatives the ocular transfer did not hold coverage at thinn Adding coherence changed mortality discrimination by deltaC 00047 Interface requirements moved from 142718 to 38147 METPARTIALUNMET Nielsen severity resolved 7 of 10 issues WCAG 22 AA text criteria passed Conclusions PORTRAIT situates a patient against a frozen reference holds coverage under survey weighting to the US adult population and abstains when calibration cannot be supported The headline result is that the frozen reference held coverage where a resplit did not

Rising costs, slow accrual and molecular substratification of cancers necessitate novel clinical trial designs. We demonstrate that artificial intelligence-generated synthetic patients can replace real controls to reproduce results of the SORAML trial. Using external multimodal data from 1,377 acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients from previous trials and a real-world registry, we fine-tuned a tabular foundation model to generate synthetic patients, reproducing clinical and genetic features and outcome associations. Synthetic patients were then matched to the original SORAML intervention group using Cox risk scores, replacing the original control and reproducing the original trial result with near-identical median event-free survival (EFS) and treatment effect (original hazard ratio [HR] 0.64, 95%-confidence interval [CI] 0.47-0.87, p=0.004; with synthetic control HR 0.66, 95%-CI 0.48-0.90, p=0.009). Our findings demonstrate that AI-generated synthetic patients can serve as statistically rigorous controls supporting novel trial designs.

Objective To evaluate adherence to published American Society for Reproductive Medicine (ASRM) infertility evaluation and treatment recommendations among commercially insured infertility patients who subsequently underwent in vitro fertilization (IVF) and to assess whether observed care gaps support the need for a restorative reproductive medical framework. Methods A retrospective claims-based analysis was performed using MarketScan(R) Commercial Claims and Encounter Data between January 1, 2021, and December 31, 2024. Approximately five million commercially insured members were evaluated. Patients with infertility-related diagnoses who subsequently underwent IVF were identified. Claims were analyzed for evidence of diagnostic testing, medical treatment, or surgical intervention recommended by ASRM or AUA/ASRM guidance before IVF initiation. Cumulative adherence rates were assessed over nine months following initial infertility diagnosis. Results IVF initiation rose early and consistently exceeded completion of nearly all guideline-recommended evaluations and treatments. Observed care gaps ranged from approximately 13% to 78% for most recommended evaluations and treatments, with several measures demonstrating gaps exceeding 50 percentage points, suggesting substantial divergence between guideline recommendations and observed clinical practice. By 3 months, IVF initiation ranged from 28% to 39% across cohorts, while adherence to many recommended interventions remained low. Overall, by 9 months, IVF utilization commonly exceeded 70-85%, while many guideline-supported evaluations and treatments remained below 40% adherence, with several interventions remaining below 15%. These findings suggest substantial divergence between published infertility-care recommendations and observed pre-IVF practice patterns. From an RRM perspective, the gaps are clinically important because many recommended steps are directed toward identifying, correcting, restoring, or preserving reproductive function and anatomy before reproductive barriers are bypassed through IVF. Conclusions Many commercially insured infertility patients appeared to progress to IVF without documented evidence of diagnostic evaluation or therapeutic intervention recommended in ASRM and AUA/ASRM guidance. These findings raise important questions regarding the implementation of infertility guidelines before IVF and the extent to which patients receive meaningful opportunities for diagnosis-directed treatment of potentially reversible causes of infertility. The findings further suggest an important role for restorative reproductive medicine as a quality-of-care framework focused on comprehensive evaluation, correction of underlying dysfunction, preservation of reproductive anatomy and physiology, and optimization of patient-centered fertility care prior to attempts with assisted reproduction.

Purpose: Nonresponse to routinely collected patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) threatens the representativeness of aggregated data. We characterized patient-, provider-, and clinic-level factors associated with PROMIS Global-10 nonresponse in routine radiation oncology care. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, all adults seen at five Mass General Brigham radiation oncology clinics over one year were included. The primary outcome was patient-level nonresponse, defined as never completing the portal-administered Global-10 versus completing it at least once. Using iterative mixed-effects logistic regression, we modeled patient-, provider-, and clinic-level factors. Results: Among 12,214 patients, 71 providers, and five clinics, patient- and appointment-level response rates were 35.4% and 10.9%, with patient-level response ranging nearly fivefold across clinics (12.8% to 66.2%). In Model 1, male sex, lower education, not working, and recent surgery had higher odds of nonresponse, and longer time since diagnosis lower odds. After provider- and clinic-level factors were added, patient sex, education, and employment became nonsignificant, whereas recent surgery (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.97) and longer time since diagnosis (aOR 0.46 for >12 months) persisted. A provider's historical collection rate was protective but attenuated at the clinic level. There, a later program launch (aOR 0.29) and higher historical collection rate (aOR 0.79) correlated with lower nonresponse, whereas academic versus community setting did not. Conclusions: Nonresponse to routinely collected PROMs is a multilevel phenomenon driven substantially by clinic-level implementation factors, not patient characteristics alone. Because response rate is only a proxy for representativeness, PROMs programs and PRO-based performance measures should prioritize representative collection over volume.