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Integrating dynamic nomogram and machine learning for personalized disability prediction in elderly cardiometabolic multimorbidity: routine blood markers and mental health

XIAOJIN, H.; Yang, S.; Ma, L.; Song, T.; Li, J.; Zhang, X.; Xue, H.; Cao, S.; Yan, W.; Zhang, S.; SHUQIN, S.

2026-06-29 geriatric medicine
10.64898/2026.06.25.26356637 medRxiv
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Abstract Background: Disability prediction in elderly with cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM) is limited. We developed a dynamic nomogram and addressed three questions: predictive value of routine blood markers, depression vs. physical function, and plateau in CMM count.Methods: Using CHARLS data (46 predictors), disability defined as ADL/IADL impairment or self-report. LASSO and logistic regression built the nomogram, with mediation, RCS, trend tests, machine learning, and SHAP.Results: Six predictors (depression, cognition, stroke, CMM number, age, falls) formed a good-performing nomogram (https://xjbsashjtdx.shinyapps.io/DynamicNomogram/). Left-hand grip strength mediated 12.3% of strokes effect. Cognition showed an inverted U-shape (inflection point=12.043). CMM count plateaued after 3 diseases. Depression outranked grip strength and walking speed. SHAP identified HbA1c, creatinine, uric acid, hematocrit, fasting glucose, TyG, and CVAI as risk markers.Conclusions: The nomogram enables personalized risk stratification. Routine blood markers predict disability, depression dominates over physical function, and the CMM-disability relationship plateaus at CMM[≥]3.

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