A clinicoradiological model for preoperative prediction of lateral lymph node metastasis in rectal cancer

Background: Lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) is associated with poor prognosis in patients with rectal cancer and may influence the indication for lateral lymph node dissection. Accurate preoperative identification of LLNM remains challenging. This study aimed to develop and internally validate a clinicoradiological model for preoperative prediction of LLNM in rectal cancer. Methods A retrospective cohort of 64 patients undergoing lateral lymph node dissection (LLND) for rectal cancer was analysed; 21 (32.8%) had pathological lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM). A prespecified preoperative clinicoradiological model was fitted using penalised logistic regression with L2 regularisation (ridge), incorporating MRI-measured lateral lymph node short-axis diameter (LLN-SAD), dichotomised clinical T stage (T3-4 vs T1-2), dichotomised clinical N stage (N+ vs N0), and log(CA19-9+1). Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration analysis, and bootstrap internal validation. Results The model showed good discrimination (AUC 0.914), with an optimism-corrected AUC of 0.887 on bootstrap validation. Calibration remained acceptable after optimism correction (calibration intercept -0.127; slope 1.045). Decision curve analysis suggested net benefit across clinically relevant threshold probabilities, particularly between 0.10 and 0.30. The model was implemented as a web-based calculator to facilitate clinical use. Conclusion This clinicoradiological model showed good discrimination, acceptable calibration, and potential clinical utility for preoperative assessment of LLNM risk in rectal cancer. It may assist individualized risk stratification and treatment planning, although external validation is required before routine clinical implementation.