Back

Estimating chronological and brain age using risk-taking behavior under uncertainty

Gong, Y.; Tan, M.; Ma, M.; Fu, Y.; Wu, D.; Luo, G.; Ren, P.

2026-03-16 neuroscience
10.64898/2026.03.12.711461 bioRxiv
Show abstract

Risky decision-making under uncertainty reflects complex cognitive processes supported by distributed brain networks that are vulnerable to aging. However, it remains unclear whether risk-taking behavior can serve as a behavioral marker of brain aging. In the present study, we combined behavioral tasks, computational modeling, and structural magnetic resonance imaging to investigate the relationship between risky decision-making, chronological age, and brain age. A total of 55 young adults and 112 healthy older adults completed the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART), along with neuropsychological assessments and neuroimaging scanning. Decision processes were quantified using computational models, including the Value-Plus-Perseveration model and Exponential-Weight Mean-Variance. Brain age was estimated from gray matter volume. The results showed significant age-related alterations in parameters reflecting feedback sensitivity, learning rate, and loss aversion in both tasks. Within older adults, several decision parameters were significantly associated with both chronological age and brain age. Regression analyses further showed that computational parameters significantly predicted chronological age and brain age, whereas traditional cognitive screening measures did not show significant predictive effect. Structural brain analyses indicated that IGT-related parameters were primarily associated with the basal ganglia, while BART-related parameters were linked to a broader network including prefrontal, cingulate, and temporal regions. These findings suggest that computational markers of risk-taking behavior capture subtle age-related changes in cognitive processes and brain deterioration. Therefore, risk-taking parameters may serve as reliable functional markers of brain aging, providing critical insights into the mechanisms underlying successful aging.

Matching journals

The top 5 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.

1
Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience
67 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
26.3%
2
Neurobiology of Aging
95 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
10.3%
3
npj Aging
15 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
6.9%
4
Human Brain Mapping
295 papers in training set
Top 1.0%
6.4%
5
NeuroImage
813 papers in training set
Top 2%
6.4%
50% of probability mass above
6
Aging Cell
144 papers in training set
Top 1%
4.9%
7
Aging
69 papers in training set
Top 0.5%
4.4%
8
Scientific Reports
3102 papers in training set
Top 42%
2.9%
9
Translational Psychiatry
219 papers in training set
Top 2%
2.8%
10
GeroScience
97 papers in training set
Top 0.7%
2.6%
11
eLife
5422 papers in training set
Top 35%
2.1%
12
Brain Research
35 papers in training set
Top 0.7%
1.7%
13
NeuroImage: Clinical
132 papers in training set
Top 3%
1.4%
14
Alzheimer's Research & Therapy
52 papers in training set
Top 1%
1.2%
15
Alzheimer's & Dementia
143 papers in training set
Top 2%
0.9%
16
Imaging Neuroscience
242 papers in training set
Top 3%
0.9%
17
Biological Psychiatry: Cognitive Neuroscience and Neuroimaging
62 papers in training set
Top 1%
0.9%
18
Communications Biology
886 papers in training set
Top 20%
0.8%
19
PLOS ONE
4510 papers in training set
Top 66%
0.8%
20
Progress in Neurobiology
41 papers in training set
Top 2%
0.8%
21
The Journal of Neuroscience
928 papers in training set
Top 8%
0.8%
22
Alzheimer's & Dementia: Diagnosis, Assessment & Disease Monitoring
38 papers in training set
Top 1%
0.7%
23
Frontiers in Human Neuroscience
67 papers in training set
Top 3%
0.7%
24
Advanced Science
249 papers in training set
Top 23%
0.5%
25
Frontiers in Neuroscience
223 papers in training set
Top 9%
0.5%
26
National Science Review
22 papers in training set
Top 3%
0.5%