Walking in the Free World: Establishing Normative Trajectories for Ecological Assessment of Robust Gait Variability with Age

Gait variability is a critical functional indicator of dynamic balance and neurocognitive decline in health. Its translation into clinical practice is, however, challenged by a lack of age-related normative trajectories and reference values under real-world ecological settings. Furthermore, the conventional metrics used to estimate gait variability (Coefficient of Variation, CV; Standard Deviation, SD) have a fundamental methodological flaw: the inherent sensitivity of conventional metrics to the statistical outliers and environmental noise in real-world walking. In this study, we mitigate this factor by applying a robust statistical framework to quantify gait variability. Analysing a large-scale cohort of community-dwelling older adults (n=2,193), we first demonstrate that freeliving gait data follows a heavy-tailed distribution, necessitating the use of robust estimators like the Robust Coefficient of Variation (RCVMAD) and Median Absolute Deviation (MAD). Leveraging these metrics, we established the normative trajectory and reference values of real-world gait variability across the ageing lifespan, revealing a distinct, age-dependent increase in spatio-temporal fluctuations, indicating a decline in rhythmicity and steadiness with age. We further demonstrated the clinical utility of these robust metrics: RCVMAD consistently yielded larger effect sizes than conventional CV in discriminating between fallers and non-fallers across all gait parameters. Furthermore, we illustrate the potential of long-term unsupervised monitoring to capture intrinsic variability during real-world walking. Validated for consistency and reliability, this robust framework provides the necessary ecological validity to transform gait variability into a standardised, rapid clinical metric for assessing functional decline at an early timepoint.