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Emerging diseases: when Random Clinical Trial success means poor economic value

2026-01-21 public and global health Title + abstract only
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Using the example of an unknown emerging disease with simple SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) dynamics, we show that an efficacy randomized clinical trial (RCT) for a vaccine can be misleading when it comes to the cost-effectiveness of that vaccine. An RCT is more likely to demonstrate efficacy with a high confidence level if it is carried out during the peak of the outbreak. However, in this scenario, the vaccine also has a higher chance of being approved too late to be cost-effective. A ...

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