Burden and trend of kidney cancer attributable to high body mass index among middle-aged males in East and Southeast Asia from 1990 to 2021

BackgroundWith economic development and lifestyle transitions, obesity prevalence has increased, and kidney cancer is significantly influenced by high body mass index (BMI), particularly among middle-aged males. This study analyzes the burden and trends of kidney cancer attributable to high BMI among middle-aged males in East and Southeast Asia, and projects future trends. MethodsBased on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, we assessed the burden of kidney cancer attributable to high BMI among middle-aged males in East and Southeast Asia from 1990 to 2021, specifically comparing deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized DALY rates (ASDR), and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR). Furthermore, we analyzed spatiotemporal trends of kidney cancer at multiple levels. Additionally, the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was employed to predict future burden trends through 2040. ResultsFrom 1990 to 2021, DALYs and deaths attributable to high BMI-induced kidney cancer among middle-aged males in East Asia increased dramatically by 530.73% and 517.28%, respectively, while corresponding increases in Southeast Asia reached 478.68% and 478.70%. These growth rates significantly exceeded the global average. In 2021, the ASDR in East Asia was 15.63 per 100,000, and the ASMR was 0.40 per 100,000. For Southeast Asia, the ASDR and ASMR were 9.40 per 100,000 and 0.25 per 100,000, respectively, highlighting substantial regional disparities. Both regions exhibited a positive correlation between Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and ASDR/ASMR, with a disproportionately higher burden observed in the 55-59-year age group. Projections indicate that the burden in these regions will continue to rise through 2040. ConclusionThe increasing burden of kidney cancer attributable to high BMI among middle-aged males in East and Southeast Asia has become a serious public health challenge. Developing and implementing targeted interventions to address the escalating obesity epidemic and its impact on kidney cancer have become critically urgent.