Microbiome-based risk prediction in incident heart failure: a community challenge

Heart failure (HF) is a major public health problem. Early identification of at-risk individuals could allow for interventions that reduce morbidity or mortality. The community-based FINRISK Microbiome DREAM challenge (synapse.org/finrisk) evaluated the use of machine learning approaches on shotgun metagenomics data obtained from fecal samples to predict incident HF risk over 15 years in a population cohort of 7231 Finnish adults (FINRISK 2002, n=559 incident HF cases). Challenge participants used synthetic data for model training and testing. Final models submitted by seven teams were evaluated in the real data. The two highest-scoring models were both based on Cox regression but used different feature selection approaches. We aggregated their predictions to create an ensemble model. Additionally, we refined the models after the DREAM challenge by eliminating phylum information. Models were also evaluated at intermediate timepoints and they predicted 10-year incident HF more accurately than models for 5- or 15-year incidence. We found that bacterial species, especially those linked to inflammation, are predictive of incident HF. This highlights the role of the gut microbiome as a potential driver of inflammation in HF pathophysiology. Our results provide insights into potential modeling strategies of microbiome data in prospective cohort studies. Overall, this study provides evidence that incorporating microbiome information into incident risk models can provide important biological insights into the pathogenesis of HF.