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Impact of COVID-19 Vaccinations in India - A Statewise Analysis

Adhikary, A.; Pal, M.; Maiti, R.; Ghosh, P.

2022-12-06 public and global health
10.1101/2022.12.02.22283013 medRxiv
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ObjectiveThe COVID-19 vaccination program in India started after the first wave of infections had almost subsided. In this work, the objective is to perform a statewise analysis to assess the impact of vaccination during the second COVID-19 wave in India. A total of 21 states are chosen for the analysis encompassing 97% of the Indian population. MethodsWe use the generalized Gompertz curve to study the COVID-19 outbreak. The generalized Gompertz model is then modified to study the impact of vaccination. The modified model considers the cumulative daily number of individuals having the first and second shots of the vaccine in each state as explanatory variables. ResultsWe observe that, out of 21 states, 16 states show the effectiveness of vaccines in curbing the spread of COVID-19. However, in states like Telangana, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, and Kerala, we do not conclusively observe the impact of vaccination during the study period. ConclusionsThe effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccine depends on many factors. Some of them are not directly measurable. Using only COVID-19 infection cases and the vaccination data, we conclude that overall the vaccination program was effective in curbing the spread of COVID-19 in India.

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