Disruption in seasonality, patient characteristics and disparities of respiratory syncytial virus infection among young children in the US during and before the COVID-19 pandemic: 2010-2022

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections and hospitalization have surged sharply among young children. Here we test how the seasonal patterns of RSV infections in 2022 compared with those from other COVID-19 pandemic and pre-pandemic years. For this purpose, we analyzed a nation-wide and real-time database of electronic health records of 56 million patients across 50 states in the US. The monthly incidence rate of first-time RSV infection in young children (<5 years of age) and very young children (<1 year of age) followed a seasonal pattern from 2010 to 2019 with increases during the autumn, peaking in winter, subsiding in spring and summer. This seasonal pattern was significantly disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020, the incidence rate of RSV infections was remarkably low throughout the year. In 2021, the RSV season expanded to 9 months starting in the early summer and peaking in October. In 2022, RSV infections started to rise in May and were significantly higher than in previous years reaching a historically highest incidence rate in November 2022. There were significant racial and ethnic disparities in the peak RSV infection rate during 2010-2021 and the disparities further exacerbated in 2022 with peak incidence rate in black and Hispanic children 2-3 times that in white children. Among RSV-infected children in 2022, 19.2% had prior documented COVID-19 infection, significantly higher than the 9.7% among uninfected children, suggesting that prior COVID-19 could be a risk factor for RSV infection or that there are common risk factors for both viral infections. Our study calls for continuous monitoring of RSV infection in young children alongside its clinical outcomes and for future work to assess potential COVID-19 related risk factors.