Global prediction for monkeypox epidemic
Zhang, L.; Huang, J.; Chen, B.; Zhao, Y.; Wang, D.; Yan, W.
Show abstract
The monkeypox epidemic has now spread all over the world and has become an epidemic of widespread concern in the international community. Before the emergence of targeted vaccines and specific drugs, it is necessary to numerically simulate and predict the epidemic. In order to better understand and grasp its transmission situation, and put forward some countermeasures accordingly, we predicted and simulated monkeypox transmission and vaccination scenarios using models developed for COVID-19 predictions. The results suggest the monkeypox epidemic will spread to almost all countries in the world by the end of 2022 based on modified SEIR model prediction. The total number of people infected with monkeypox will reach 100,000. The top five countries will be the United States, Brazil, Germany, France and Britain with more than 28000, 20000, 4000, 4500 and 4000 cases respectively. If 30% of the population is vaccinated, the number of infected people will drop by 35%.
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The top 11 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
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