Aging in India: Comparison of Conventional and Prospective Measures, 2011

Conventional measurements of aging do not take into account the dynamic nature of aging-related characteristics over time. Therefore, in order to refine the estimates of aging, demographers have proposed prospective measures based on remaining life expectancy, Sanderson and Scherbov (2007). We compared these new measures with conventional aging measures using the data from the Census of India 2011 and Sample Registration System life tables 2009-2013. In conventional aging measures, we used life expectancy at age 60 and the old age dependency ratio (OADR), whereas for new measures of aging, we applied the threshold of old age based on the remaining life expectancy and prospective old age dependency ratio (POADR). Both measures of aging provided different estimates of the aging population at the national and subnational levels. At national level, application of prospective measures increased the number of older dependents from 66.4 million to 71.8 million (OADR: 8.6% vs. POADR: 10.6%). We observed profound variation at sub-national level in India. We also observed that the prospective ageing measures not only provided higher estimates of ageing burden in India, but also altered the gender and rural urban differential in ageing. Considering the heterogeneity of life expectancies across Indian states, prospective measures provide more accurate refined estimates of aging burden in India as they are based on length of life expectancy. Application of these measures has great policy relevance in India.