Optimal vaccination with time-varying based on immunity barrier in Hunan Province, China
Guo, X.; Liu, Z.; Yang, S.; Zhao, Z.; Guo, Y.; Abudurusuli, G.; Rui, J.; Wang, Y.; Zhao, S.; Zeng, G.; Hu, S.; Luo, K.; Chen, T.
Show abstract
The current outbreak of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is already causing a serious disease burden worldwide, this paper analyzed data of a delta variant Covid-19 outbreak in Hunan, China, and proposed an optimal dose-wise dynamical vaccinating process based on local contact pattern and vaccine coverage that minimize the accumulative cases in a certain future time interval. The optimized result requires an immediate vaccination to that none vaccinated at age group 30 to 39, which is coherent to the prevailing strategies. The dose-wise optimal vaccinating process can be directive for countries or regions where vaccines are not abundant. We recommend that vaccination should be further intensified to increase the coverage of booster shots, thus effectively reducing the spread of COVID-19.
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