Modelling the effect of an improved trace and isolate system in the wake of a highly transmissible Covid-19 variant with potential vaccine escape
Bowie, C.
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ObjectiveHow helpful would a properly functioning find, test, trace, isolate and support (FTTIS) system be now in the UK with new Covid-19 infections at a low level and half the adult population immunised but with a highly transmissible variant becoming predominant? Designa dynamic causal model of Covid-19 supplied with the latest available empirical data is used to assess the impact of a new highly transmissible variant. Settingthe United Kingdom. Participantsa population based study. Interventionsscenarios are used to explore a Covid-19 transmission rate 50% more and twice the current rate with or without a more effective FTTIS system. Main outcome measuresincidence, death rate and reproductive ratio Resultsa small short third wave of infections occurs which does not occur if FTTIS effectiveness is improved from 25% to 30%. Conclusiona modest improvement in FTTIS would prevent a third wave caused by a highly transmissible virus.
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