The role of NIH funding in vaccine readiness; foundational research and NIH funding underlying candidate SARS-CoV-2 vaccines

This work characterizes the NIH contribution to vaccine technologies being employed in "warp speed" development of vaccines for COVID-19, as well as the lack of sustained NIH funding for published research against recognized epidemic threats. Using quantitative methods, we examined the advance of published research on ten of the vaccine technologies incorporated in the 165 candidate vaccines entering development through July 2020 as well as the NIH funding that supported this research. Live, attenuated virus, inactivated virus, and adjuvant technologies have been used in successful products since the 1950s and continue to exhibit steady advance. Synthetic (recombinant) vaccines, viral vectors, DNA, and TLR9 agonists as adjuvants emerged since the 1980s, and exhibit a logistic, "S-curve" pattern of growth characteristic of emerging technologies that have passed an analytically-defined established point. In contrast, mRNA, virus-like particle, and nanoparticle technologies show exponential growth characteristic of technologies short of their established points. The body of research and NIH funding for established and emerging vaccine technologies exhibited sustained growth through the late 2010s, supported by > 16,000 project years of NIH funding totaling over $17.2 billion (2000-2019), the majority through cooperative agreements and intramural programs. NIH funding for published research on vaccines for recognized zoonotic threats including coronavirus, Zika, Ebola, and dengue, however, has been inconsistent and reactive to disease outbreaks. These data are considered in the context of the high failure rate for candidate vaccines and evidence that technological maturity is a significant factor in the efficiency of product development. Sustained funding for both enabling technologies and vaccine development is essential to ensure a rapid response to COVID and future pandemic threats. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENTThis work examines the advance of research and NIH funding for technologies being employed in "warp speed" development of COVID-19 vaccines in the context of evidence that mature technologies have a greater likelihood of generating successful products. We show that candidate vaccines for COVID-19 employ a variety of established and still-emerging technologies, and identify $17.2 billion in NIH funding for this research from 2000-2019. In contrast, NIH funding for published research for vaccines on recognized pandemic threats has been inconsistent. This work highlights the significance and scale of the NIH contribution to vaccine technologies and the lack of sustained initiatives for vaccine development.