Prognostic value of visual quantification of lesion severity at initial chest CT in confirmed Covid-19 infection: a retrospective analysis on 216 patients

Rationale and ObjectivesStudies suggest an association between chest CT findings assessed with semi-quantitative CT score and gravity of Covid-19. The objective of this work is to analyze potential correlation between visual quantification of lesion severity at initial chest CT and clinical outcome in confirmed Covid-19 patients. Materials and MethodsFrom March 5th to March 21st, 2020, all consecutive patients that underwent chest CT for clinical suspicion of Covid-19 at a single tertiary center were retrospectively evaluated for inclusion. Patients with lung parenchyma lesions compatible with Covid-19 and positive RT-PCR were included. Global extensiveness of abnormal lung parenchyma was visually estimated and classified independently by 2 readers, following the European Society of Thoracic Imaging Guidelines. Death and/or mechanical ventilation within 30 days following the initial chest CT was chosen as the primary hard endpoint. Results216 patients (124 men, 62 years-old {+/-} 16.5, range 22 - 94 yo) corresponding to 216 chest CT were included. Correlation between lesion severity and percentage of patients that met the primary endpoint was high, with a coefficient {rho} of 0.87 (p = 0.05). A greater than 25% involvement was significantly associated with a higher risk of mechanical ventilation or death at 30 days, with a Risk Ratio of 5.00 (95% CI [3.59-6.99]). ConclusionThis retrospective cohort confirms a correlation between visual evaluation of lesions severity at initial chest CT and the 30 days clinical outcome of Covid-19 patients and suggests using a threshold of greater than 25% involvement to identify patients at risk.