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Prevalence Threshold and Temporal Interpretation of Screening Tests: The Example of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Pandemic
2020-05-22
epidemiology
Title + abstract only
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The curvilinear relationship between a screening tests positive predictive value (PPV) and its target disease prevalence is proportional. In consequence, there is an inflection point of maximum curvature in the screening curve defined as a function of the sensitivity (a) and specificity (b) beyond which the rate of change of a tests PPV declines sharply relative to disease prevalence ({phi}). Herein, we demonstrate a mathematical model exploring this phenomenon and define the prevalence threshol...
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