Back

The reproductive index from SEIR model of Covid-19 epidemic in Asean

udomsamuthirun, p.; Chanilkul, G.; Tongkhonburi, P.; Meesubthong, C.

2020-04-29 infectious diseases
10.1101/2020.04.24.20078287 medRxiv
Show abstract

As we calculate analytic to link the coefficient of third-order polynomial equations from raw data of an Asean to the SEIR model. The Reproductive index depending on the average incubation period and the average infection period and the coefficient polynomial equations fitted from raw are derived. We also consider the difference of the average incubation period as 5 days and 3 days with the average infection period as 10 day of an Asean. We find that the value of R0 are Indonesia (7.97), Singapore (6.22), Malaysia (3.86), Thailand (2.48), respectively. And we also find that Singapore has 2 values of R0 as 1.54 (16 Feb to 37 March) and 6.22 (31 March-4 April).The peak of infection rate are not found for Singapore and Indonesia at the time of consideration. The model of external stimulus is added into raw data of Singapore and Indonesia to find the maximum rate of infection. We find that Singapore need more magnitude of external stimulus than Indonesia. And the external stimulus for 14 days can stimulate to occur the peak of infected daily case of both country.

Matching journals

The top 9 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.

1
Chaos, Solitons & Fractals
○ 32 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
13.4%
Similar papers in this journal
2
PLOS ONE
● 5266 papers in training set
Top 16%
11.4%
Similar papers in this journal
3
Scientific Reports
○ 3612 papers in training set
Top 13%
5.7%
Similar papers in this journal
4
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
● 23 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
5.7%
Similar papers in this journal
5
Nonlinear Dynamics
○ 10 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
4.2%
Similar papers in this journal
6
Infectious Disease Modelling
○ 54 papers in training set
Top 0.4%
3.6%
7
Physical Review E
● 112 papers in training set
Top 0.6%
2.5%
8
Frontiers in Public Health
○ 148 papers in training set
Top 2%
2.5%
9
PeerJ
◐ 308 papers in training set
Top 4%
2.2%
50% of probability mass above
10
F1000Research
○ 88 papers in training set
Top 0.9%
2.2%
11
Journal of Biosciences
○ 15 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
2.1%
12
Journal of Medical Virology
○ 140 papers in training set
Top 1%
1.8%
13
The European Physical Journal Plus
○ 13 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
1.8%
14
BMC Infectious Diseases
○ 133 papers in training set
Top 2%
1.6%
15
Cureus
○ 68 papers in training set
Top 3%
1.5%
16
PLOS Computational Biology
● 1863 papers in training set
Top 15%
1.5%
17
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
○ 13 papers in training set
Top 0.1%
1.4%
18
Biophysical Journal
○ 631 papers in training set
Top 3%
1.2%
19
JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
◐ 45 papers in training set
Top 0.9%
1.2%
20
Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science
● 17 papers in training set
Top 0.2%
1.2%
21
Heliyon
○ 152 papers in training set
Top 5%
1.2%
22
Environmental Research
○ 49 papers in training set
Top 0.7%
1.2%
23
Pan African Medical Journal
● 11 papers in training set
Top 0.3%
1.2%
24
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
○ 128 papers in training set
Top 4%
1.2%
25
JMIRx Med
◐ 32 papers in training set
Top 1%
1.2%
26
Journal of Public Health
◐ 24 papers in training set
Top 0.8%
1.1%
27
Medicine
○ 31 papers in training set
Top 1%
1.1%
28
Royal Society Open Science
● 214 papers in training set
Top 5%
1.0%
29
Frontiers in Medicine
○ 120 papers in training set
Top 4%
0.9%
30
PLOS Global Public Health
● 344 papers in training set
Top 8%
0.6%

"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.