Oikos

The ongoing decline in biodiversity highlights the need for understanding the causes of population changes. This study uses 25-year, large-scale monitoring dataset to investigate the influence of climate and landscape structure on the annual population growth rates of 84 bird species across Poland. Our methodological framework involves the spatiotemporal decomposition of these environmental drivers to decouple demographic effects of long-term carrying capacities from the short-term effects of environmental perturbations. Using species-specific demographic models followed by a community-wide meta-analysis, we evaluated how individual species responses scale up to shape community-level dynamics. The results reveal significant variation in species-specific responses to individual drivers. At the community level, our findings suggest that bird populations are mainly regulated by the long-term spatial constraints rather than short-term disturbances. Persistent environmental heterogeneity had the strongest positive demographic effect on birds, followed by temperature, forest dominance over croplands, and precipitation. In contrast, rapid temporal shifts in environmental heterogeneity and precipitation anomalies negatively affected population growth, whereas urbanisation consistently exerted a negative effect across both spatiotemporal dimensions. Our results highlight the significance of protecting existing heterogeneous and ecotonal habitats, as well as the need to incorporate features that enhance habitat heterogeneity into urban development. Article impact statementPreserving heterogeneous habitats is essential for the conservation of bird populations.

The Biodiversity-Ecosystem Functioning (BEF) literature has shown species diversity to be essential for ecosystem functioning and services. Yet although acquiring information through interspecific networks can impact ecosystem functioning, it is unclear how it is modulated by species diversity. Eliciting vocal responses using predator models across a latitudinal gradient, we first show that the species diversity of birds increases public information about predation both in the low-cost system of mobbing and in the higher-cost system of alarm calls. A similar result was also found across a fragment area gradient for mobbing; this system was then used to test how species diversity affects interspecific information flow in mobbing communities. We set up two BEF playback experiments, manipulating the species richness level of the playback sound files by varying the number of species producing mobbing calls (one, two, four, eight species). In an experiment in which the call rate across treatments was held constant, and only heterospecific responses were counted, increasing species richness of the sound files increased the number of species and individuals responding, the number of calls produced and their frequency range, and decreased latency to call. An experiment in which call rate increased with the addition of species in each treatment showed a similar, but stronger pattern. There was little evidence that the signals of one particular species changed responses. This supports the hypothesis that the species diversity of a community is a key component influencing the quantity and quality of information flow inside it.

Ectomycorrhizal (EcM) fungi are well-recognized symbionts impacting tree health and ecosystem functioning globally, yet understanding of their timing of proliferation in soils across seasons and years remains limited. We analyzed monthly patterns of EcM fungal abundance and community structure over two years in five temperate monodominant forest plots via quantitative PCR and Illumina sequencing. We found that the phenological dynamics of EcM fungi differed significantly by host tree leaf habit, fungal exploration type, fungal genus, and soil moisture. Overall, total EcM fungal abundances based on qPCR consistently peaked in autumn, and were more dynamic in evergreen than deciduous plots, supporting ideas of surplus carbon and asymmetric above-belowground dynamics. Longer-distance exploration types peaked earlier and were more stable than shorter-distance types, suggesting an independent and supportive role in releasing spring nutrients. About half of 20 focal taxa consistently peaked in either autumn, summer, or spring, while others were either host- and/or year-dependent. Our findings highlight that phenology is a key EcM fungal trait best explained by both host and fungal contributions, and future studies across biomes should consider seasonal shifts and sampling to elucidate phenological traits. Summary- The timing of belowground production and seasonal community dynamics remain poorly understood for ectomycorrhizal (EcM) fungi. - We collected soils monthly for two years from five temperate monodominant forest plots. - Fungal production peaked in autumn, shorter-distance and evergreen-associated spanned wider ranges, and half of focal fungal genera showed seasonal preference, emphasizing autumn surplus carbon and spring nutrients from long-distance types. - Future studies should consider seasonal shifts when sampling EcM fungal communities, and forest carbon models should include asymmetric above-belowground phenology. Translated Summary (Spanish)- La fenologia de la produccion y composicion de comunidades de hongos ectomicorrizicos (EcM) es poco estudiada. - Recolectamos suelos mensualmente por dos anos de cinco parcelas mono-dominantes templados. - Produccion maxima de hongos ocurrio en otono, hongos asociados con arboles siempreverdes y de exploracion de corta-distancia observaron rangos mas amplios, y la mitad de generos de hongos focales observaron preferencia estacional, enfatizando extra carbono en otono y nutrientes en primavera de tipos larga-distancia. - Estudios deben considerar cambios estacionales para el muestreo de hongos EcM, y modelos de carbono deben incluir fenologia asimetrica entre hojas y hongos. Plain language summaryEctomycorrhizal fungi are critical for the global carbon cycle, but their seasonal and inter-annual growth patterns remain unclear. We sample soil DNA monthly over two years across five different monodominant temperate forest stands. We find an overall belowground peak in autumn, with significantly later growth under wetter conditions, more dynamism with evergreen trees, and distinct spring growth by longer-distance fungi.

O_LIAgricultural intensification can support the expansion of introduced species which are highly adapted to human-modified landscapes, but the mechanisms by which this occurs are often unclear. C_LIO_LIHere we investigate the spatial ecology of a rapidly expanding introduced bumble bee (Bombus impatiens) and a native congener (B. mixtus) in agricultural landscapes of southwestern British Columbia, Canada. We used microsatellite genotyping and spatially explicit capture-recapture models to compare the foraging distance of the two species, and fitted hierarchical models to compare their abundance, behaviour (nest searching vs foraging), and lineage survival as a function of landscape composition and configuration. C_LIO_LIWe found that B. impatiens had a broader foraging range than B. mixtus, and that its colony/worker abundance were positively associated with the surrounding area of residential gardens, but decreased relative to B. mixtus abundance in response to increasing seminatural area. In contrast, B. mixtus colony abundance decreased in landscapes with a greater area of intensively managed berry crops. C_LIO_LIWe observed fewer B. impatiens queens per survey in landscapes with more low-disturbance landcover, and hypothesize space use of this species could be shaped by concentration on potential nesting habitat. Consistent with this observation, nest searching behaviour was more common for B. impatiens queens, while B. mixtus queens were primarily observed foraging, suggesting these two species derive different value from agricultural landscapes during colony establishment. C_LIO_LIFinally, we found that the rate of lineage re-capture between 2022 colonies and 2023 spring queens was nearly 10-fold higher for B. impatiens than for B. mixtus, indicating a greater capacity of the introduced species to complete its life cycle in agro-natural landscape mosaics. C_LIO_LIOur results suggest that differences in spatial ecology may contribute to the differential success of these two species in human-modified landscapes, and provide insight into the mechanisms by which land-use change shapes community composition. C_LI O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=184 HEIGHT=200 SRC="FIGDIR/small/723627v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (62K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1e72eacorg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@a958a0org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1f970b6org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@156f522_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG Graphical abstract. Coloured diagrams of B. mixtus and B. impatiens are credited to Elaine Evans and the Xerces Society, with permission.

Plants, as structural elements of habitats, contribute greatly to the maintenance of local biodiversity through their biological interactions. In this study we explore whether their rarity, according to Rabinowitzs (1981) three criteria, is related to the richness and diversity of arthropods and other plants they are associated to, in a gypsum-rich steppe. We first analysed whether the geographic abundance and ecological specialisation of 32 characteristic and dominant plant species are related to the diversity (richness and phylogenetic diversity (MPD)) and degree of local specialisation of arthropods associated with them (1,694 taxa). Then, we focused on a non endemic and non specialized plant in the study area (Krascheninnikovia ceratoides) to explore the effect of population size on two types of interactions: aerial arthropods and plant facilitation. Results indicate that: 1) plant species abundance (geographical range) is not related to the richness or MPD of communities of associated arthropods, 2) plant species ecological specialization (edaphic endemisms or gypsophiles) do not contribute differentially to the maintenance of singular arthropod communities, and 3) the community of aerial arthropods and plants interacting with K. ceratoides in a small population are not necessarily less diverse than those in patches of similar size in a large population. Results also revealed that the two plant species with fewer interactions (one rare, one widespread) do show the highest singularity in their interactions with arthropods. Our study illustrates the important contribution of rare plants to the conservation of local biodiversity.

Wildlife crossing infrastructure is promoted to restore connectivity for fragmented populations, but its effectiveness at enabling natural recolonisation remains untested. We tested this using a spatially explicit agent-based model parameterised with GPS telemetry data from bobcats (Lynx rufus) in New Jersey, USA. By integrating movement behaviour, stochastic demography, habitat suitability, and traffic-dependent mortality risk, we simulated 50-year recolonisation dynamics across a highly urbanised landscape. Despite extensive unoccupied suitable habitat, natural recolonisation completely failed across all scenarios, with vehicle-induced mortality during dispersal acting as the primary limiting factor and turning the matrix into a demographic sink. Even an idealised mitigation scenario in which mortality at high-mortality crossings was reduced to zero failed to produce a self-sustaining population. Although dispersal increased, individuals at the recolonisation front remained too sparse to overcome the mate-finding Allee effect. Sensitivity analysis confirmed that the recolonisation-failure result is robust to {+/-}50% variation in per-crossing mortality and {+/-}25% variation in disperser survival. Restoring structural connectivity is not, in itself, a sufficient intervention for recovering low-density carnivore populations facing a high-mortality matrix. Instead disperser survival and local density at the recolonisation front are the rate-limiting determinants. In such systems translocation rather than crossing-structure investment is more likely to result in recolonisation success.

O_LIPlants take up nutrients from the soil while investing in absorptive root surface or mycorrhizal partners. Root hairs - a major structure for nutrient uptake and cheap to build - increase the absorptive root surface. As such they are an important component of plant resource economics but largely neglected in root economic concepts so far. C_LIO_LIThis is mainly due to data scarcity, which we set out to overcome by measuring root-hair traits on 82 European grassland species in a greenhouse experiment. Using fluorescence and light microscopy, root-hair length and incidence was measured along with mycorrhizal colonization. C_LIO_LIWe found a phylogenetically conserved trade-off between plant investment into root hairs and mycorrhiza. A similar trade-off between root-hair incidence and mycorrhiza occurred at the intraspecific level, while patterns were heterogeneous among species. Plant species with high colonization rates showed the highest variability in root-hair incidence. C_LIO_LIWe conclude that plants vary along a gradient ranging from investment into root hairs as part of a "do-it-yourself" strategy to collaboration with mycorrhizal fungi while showing intraspecific variation in root-hair incidence. These findings demonstrate that root hairs play a fundamental role in fine-root trait variation and need to be considered when studying belowground plant economic strategies. C_LI

AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWEnvironmental heterogeneity across freshwater systems often promotes phenotypic variation, yet disentangling environmentally induced variation from heritable differentiation remains a central goal in evolutionary ecology. We investigated the geographic distribution and morphological differentiation, and heritability of shell traits among populations of the freshwater lymnaeid snail Pectinidens diaphanus in Patagonia. Extensive field surveys across 196 freshwater sites revealed that the species occupies a broad range of lentic and lotic habitats and constitutes the only lymnaeid inhabiting southern Patagonia. While reproductive anatomical structures were conserved across populations, shell shape differed markedly among populations from contrasting habitat types, with population identity explaining nearly 50% of total shape variation. Populations from hydrologically unstable habitats (ponds and streams) exhibited more elongated shells and relatively smaller apertures, a pattern consistent with functional responses to hydroperiod variability and desiccation risk. To assess the heritability of this differentiation, we conducted a common-garden experiment across two generations. Shell shape differences between permanent- (lagoon) and temporary- (pond) habitat-derived populations persisted into the G2 generation reared under standardized laboratory conditions, indicating that the observed variation is not solely a response to local environmental conditions but includes a heritable component. Together, our findings demonstrate that P. diaphanus constitutes the sole lymnaeid across southern Patagonia, occupying a broader range than previously documented, and that populations show heritable shell differentiation potentially associated with contrasting freshwater habitats. By integrating large-scale biogeographic surveys with morphometric and experimental approaches, this study provides new insight into how habitat variation may contribute to ecological and evolutionary differentiation in freshwater gastropods.

BackgroundWintering migratory birds must balance energetic requirements, resource availability, and disturbance in increasingly human-modified landscapes. However, individual-level variability in daily movement and winter space use remains poorly understood in South Asian populations of the common crane. We investigated how seasonal dynamics, landscape composition, and individual differences structure winter movement ecology in a semi-arid agro-wetland system in western India. MethodsWe analysed high-resolution GPS telemetry data from multiple tagged cranes tracked across three consecutive winters. Daily movement distances were modelled using mixed-effects approaches to partition variance within and among individuals and among winters. Daily movement trajectories were evaluated using non-linear temporal terms. Landscape predictors, including cropland proportion, built-up area, and habitat heterogeneity, were incorporated to assess environmental drivers. Winter range distributions were estimated using autocorrelation-informed kernel density estimation within a continuous-time movement modelling framework. ResultsMost variation in daily movement occurred within individuals rather than among them, indicating strong behavioural flexibility. Interannual differences explained substantial variance, suggesting sensitivity to changing environmental conditions. Daily movement distance followed a non-linear seasonal pattern consistent with shifts in the profitability of agricultural resources over winter. Cropland proportion and landscape evenness were negatively associated with movement distance, whereas a high proportion of built-up areas increased daily movement distance, reflecting a trade-off between resource concentration and anthropogenic disturbance. Winter range distribution size varied markedly both within individuals across years and among individuals within seasons. ConclusionWinter movement and space use in common cranes are predominantly context-dependent and environmentally driven. Seasonal dynamics, agricultural landscapes, and human disturbance jointly structure movement patterns, with limited but consistent individual differences. Multi-year, individual-based telemetry provides a comprehensive understanding of winter spatial strategies in dynamic semi-arid agro-wetland systems.

Urban pollinator gardens can provide refugia and support diverse populations of native bees amid threats from habitat destruction, pesticides, and potential ecological pressures from the introduced honey bee (Apis mellifera (Linnaeus, 1748)). The University of California, Berkeley, maintained a native bee garden at the Oxford Tract research facility to study the biodiversity, phenology, and foraging habits of urban bees from 2003 to 2009. That garden was decommissioned, and a new garden was re-established in 2019. Using diversity observations from the early 2000s garden and non-lethal sampling techniques, we characterized plant-pollinator interactions between flowers and urban bees in the newer bee garden with a bipartite interaction network. Across 12 flower species, we observed two non-native pollinators, the honey bee (A. mellifera) and the alfalfa leafcutter (Megachile rotundata (Fabricius, 1793)), along with at least ten native bee species across three families (Apidae, Halictidae, Megachilidae). We found that, despite the garden being created for native bees, honey bees accounted for 84% of all pollination interactions. The most abundant native bees were sweat bees (Family: Halictidae). Generalist interactions dominated the network, as both honey and sweat bees foraged on most available flowers. Honey bees showed a significant positive correlation with floral abundance, visiting flowers with the highest number of inflorescences, whereas native bees did not show this preference. These results indicate that native bee garden stewardship could benefit from greater floral diversity, while avoiding the dominance of any single species with high floral abundance, thereby reducing the likelihood of direct competition with honey bees.

The mechanisms driving host-symbiont associations across space and time in contemporary mutualisms can give insight into the capacity for symbiotic organisms to respond to environmental change. High specificity between partners can increase cooperation and facilitate efficient holobiont selection, whereas low specificity could reduce host benefit, but facilitate adaptive associations across heterogeneous environments. The present study explores specificity in natural populations of a cnidarian-algal model, Exaiptasia diaphana, across a latitudinal gradient to understand the genetic and environmental effects driving host-symbiont associations, and their relation to heritable and/or environmental symbiont acquisition. We found that symbiotic associations were extremely flexible in E. diaphana, regardless of transmission mode. E. diaphana were capable of associating with diverse symbiont communities across genetically identical hosts seeded with vertically transmitted symbionts, as well as across highly connected host populations which acquire symbionts horizontally. Host population connectivity was complex and unrelated to geographic distance, whereas symbiont community composition tracked the thermal gradient, potentially due to context dependent biotic interactions. These results indicate that in a flexible symbiosis, symbiont communities are environmentally-determined, suggesting the future of this symbiosis will likely depend on climate adaptation of symbionts.

There is disagreement on whether secondary endosymbionts are found in the major cereal pest aphid, Rhopalosiphum padi. Some papers report a diversity of secondary bacterial endosymbionts while others have failed to find evidence of these bacteria in this species. Here we revisit this issue by summarizing the relevant literature and through additional sampling of the species in Australia, China and Denmark using a combination of molecular approaches. We find a general absence of secondary endosymbionts beyond the obligate endosymbiont Hamiltonella defensa in R. padi. While the inconsistency in survey results may reflect rapid changes in endosymbiont turnover in populations and/or the impact of ecological factors such as host plant type on endosymbiont diversity, we are concerned that technical issues may be at least partly responsible for inconsistencies in the literature. This leads us to emphasize the importance of multiple sources of evidence required to establish and characterize endosymbiont infections, including PCR and qPCR assays, DNA Sanger sequencing and 16SrRNA gene metabarcoding. We note that several major aphid pests show a low incidence of secondary endosymbionts which raises issues about the importance of these endosymbionts in aphids that constitute pests, even though endosymbionts can in some cases increase host fitness and therefore pest impact.

AimHome range size is a fundamental aspect of animal spatial ecology, and understanding the factors that shape it is important for conservation purposes. Several hypotheses, based on energy needs or competition, assume that home range size negatively correlates with population density. However, this pattern has been little investigated on a global scale, and it remains unclear whether it would stand at both intra- and interspecific levels. To fill this gap, we conducted a global exploration of this relationship at the level of an animal family. Location: Global. Time period: Contemporary. Major taxa studied: Wild Felidae. MethodsIndividual home range size records (n = 1022) and population density estimates (n = 1061) were retrieved from the literature for 23 felid species across the world. We first investigated the interspecific relationship by modelling the median home range size of a species as a function of its median population density. To study the intraspecific relationship, we spatially merged data points based on their spatial or temporal proximity. We then applied a mixed-effects linear model using species as a random factor. ResultsWe found that home range size was negatively associated with population density, at both interspecific (-1.323 {+/-} 0.180, p < 0.001) and intraspecific levels (-0.569 {+/-} 0.201 to - 0.537 {+/-} 0.201 depending on the merging approach, p < 0.01). Landscape features were also predictors of home range size, without confounding the effect of population density. Main conclusionsSeveral processes likely govern the relationship between home range size and population density: differences in body mass between species may drive the interspecific relationship, whereas the intraspecific pattern is probably explained by conspecific competition. Although more research is needed to quantify their relative contribution, our study highlights a worldwide ecological pattern that exists at multiple biological levels in the wild.

A major goal of community ecology lies in the deciphering of the processes underlying species distribution. A widespread approach to this question is to identify patterns in species community data and relate them to possible processes. Joint Species Distribution Models (JS-DMs) offer one way to do so through the infernece of association networks that describe patterns of statistical correlations and dependencies between species, but it is unclear what processes can explain the presence of such correlations. While it has now been established that there is no equivalence between JSDM-inferred associations and biotic interactions, the later remain one possible explanation, among others, for the former. However, to our knowledge, there is no specific study of the statistical patterns induced by different types of interactions or of the conditions under which they may or may not appear as statistical correlations / dependencies in species communities. To explore these questions, we propose a "virtual ecologist" approach that consists in simulating community data based on abiotic and biotic processes with the VirtualCom model that emulates the effects of environmental processes and of competition and facilitation interactions. Then, we study to what extent JSDMs retrieve correlations between species that match the simulated interactions. We show that these interactions are better identified when using JSDMs that model partial correlations between species rather than marginal ones. We further demonstrate how critical it is to correctly model abiotic effects in order to identify biotic ones and that the "correct modelling" of these effects depend on the type of interactions at stake.

Minimum viable populations (MVPs) are population levels large enough to surmount risk from demographic, environmental, and genetic stochasticity. MVPs are estimated by biologists to guide conservation practices. However, MVPs are generally estimated for a target population without regard for how they interact with intra- and inter-species population dynamics in the broader ecological community. Thus, how and why population dynamics interact with MVPs imposed by conservation biologists remain unclear. When MVPs are imposed on a continuous population model, traditional analyses fail to capture the range of possible outcomes those MVPs create. Here, we describe viability space decomposition (VSD) as a mathematical tool to systematically analyze the potential crossing of MVPs during population dynamics. We demonstrate that different extinction and survival outcomes can be recovered from a model with imposed MVPs using three VSD concepts in junction with a traditional phase portrait: mortality manifolds which separate conditions that lead to different existential outcomes, ordering manifolds which determine the order of extinction events for multiple populations, and collapse manifolds which determine the survival or extinction of one species given the loss of another. We employ these methods with a standard consumer-resource model, and the methods can be scaled to systems with more species. VSD is a useful tool for conservation biologists and community ecologists concerned with boundary crossing problems in any dynamical system.

In many tropical areas, seasonal rainfall leads to distinct dry and wet seasons. Many butterflies developing under wet season conditions develop into adults with large ventral eyespots on the wing margins, whereas those developing under dry season conditions have smaller or no eyespots. In greener, wet season habitats, larger eyespots can divert predator attacks toward the wing margins, while reduced eyespot size improves camouflage in the dry leaf litter-dominated habitat during the dry season. However, the dry season is also characterised by higher desiccation stress than the wet season. We hypothesised that larvae developing under dry season conditions develop into adults with higher desiccation tolerance than those reared under wet season conditions. We tested this by rearing larvae of the butterfly Mycalesis mineus under simulated dry and wet season conditions and assaying the desiccation tolerance of the resulting adults. Butterflies reared in dry conditions survived longer under desiccation stress, lost lesser water during pupal-adult metamorphosis, and were heavier than those reared in wet conditions. We also tested the correlation between eyespot size and desiccation tolerance. A negative correlation between the traits would be expected if similar developmental pathways regulate them. Consistent with this expectation, individuals with smaller eyespots had higher desiccation tolerance. Our results demonstrate plasticity in desiccation tolerance, and suggest that predator avoidance and desiccation tolerance traits may share similar developmental pathways.

O_LIThe frequency and intensity of heat events is increasing across marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Within the same ecological community, the relative exposure and sensitivity to heat stress may vary considerably among interacting species, like predators and prey. This can be especially true for species that interact at the aquatic-terrestrial interface, as well as for interactions between primarily nocturnal and diurnal species, making it difficult to predict how such communities will respond to habitat warming. C_LIO_LIThermal limit metrics such as CTmax are often assumed to equate with ecological death because such temperatures impair behavioral activity and/or physiological functioning. Prey that are diurnally active can be more frequently exposed to temperatures that approach CTmax compared to their nocturnal predators, which may use thermal refuges during the day. Yet the impacts of daytime heat exposure on nighttime predation risk remain unknown. C_LIO_LIHere, we compared the thermal environment, performance, and heat tolerance between the predatory blue crab, Callinectus sapidus and one of its prey species, the mangrove periwinkle Littoraria anguilifera in a tropical mangrove ecosystem. We examined how exposing prey to heat stress at and below their CTmax affected their capacity to avoid predation in the field at night when predation risk is highest. C_LIO_LIWe found that acute exposure to temperatures near CTmax during the day increased the prey species susceptibility to predation during recovery at night. Although both interacting predator and prey have high thermal tolerance, prey are exposed to conditions that already reach CTmax, suggesting that current extremes in temperatures may already be influencing vulnerability to predation in this ecosystem. C_LIO_LIOur results suggest that differential exposure to sublethal heat stress in diurnal prey relative to their predator, along with the subsequent impact of these exposures on predation risk, will play a role in shaping these interacting as climate warms. C_LI

Natural populations are often nonlinear and exhibit substantial variability. A central question is how stochasticity interacts with density-dependent regulation to shape population stability. We address this using four long-term time series of Trinidadian guppies and find that their dynamics are well described by a stochastic logistic model with multiplicative environmental noise. The model predicts that stochasticity does not merely add fluctuations around deterministic carrying capacity, but alters the equilibrium structure. Using stochastic bifurcation theory, we show that increasing noise shifts the most-probable population size below the deterministic equilibrium and can push populations closer to a noise-induced bifurcation, even when mean growth rates remain positive. The effects of stochasticity across populations align with known ecological differences among streams, particularly the effects of light level and seasonality. The analysis also identifies populations most sensitive to perturbations, which are not detected by standard early warning indicators. Temporal and spectral analyses further show that intrinsic growth rate governs local recovery, while seasonal variation interacts with density-dependence to shape longer-term population fluctuations. Together, our results show that stochasticity can alter resilience and vulnerability by reshaping ecological stability landscapes.

Dormancy is a widespread adaptive strategy that allows organisms to survive in temporally varying habitats by suspending development and reproduction. Although environmental variability is expected to shape dormancy strategies, it remains unclear how differences in environmental variability and predictability influence both the production of dormant embryos and the termination of dormancy. We addressed these questions by comparing D. pulex and D. obtusa, two closely related species that inhabit environments differing in variability and predictability. We hypothesized that D. obtusa, which inhabits ephemeral environments, would exhibit a greater propensity for sexual reproduction and dormancy and would require stronger cues to break dormancy than D. pulex, which occurs in more permanent, predictable habitats. Consistent with our hypothesis, D. obtusa lineages produced significantly more males and ephippia than D. pulex when reared under identical laboratory conditions, indicating greater investment in sexual reproduction and dormancy. Contrary to our hypothesis, we found no difference in responsiveness to cues between the two species. Across species, embryos broke dormancy and hatched most readily after experiencing changes in cold and light, even if not experienced at the same time. In contrast, desiccation reduced the propensity to break dormancy. Together, these results indicate that species occupying more ephemeral environments invest more heavily in the production of dormant offspring, but that the environmental cues regulating dormancy termination appear broadly similar between species. This pattern suggests that while investment in dormancy may evolve in response to environmental variability, the mechanisms controlling dormancy termination are more conserved.

Elucidating how habitat degradation facilitates extinction is critical for effective conservation efforts. Here, we propose integrating physiologically-structured population models into stochastic population viability analyses to assess how differing consequences of habitat degradation interact to drive extinction dynamics in a focal population. Using the isolated spectacled caiman Caiman crocodilus population/ecomorph from the Apaporis River as a case study, we find that threatening the resource base, which individuals increasingly rely upon, to outgrow vulnerable size ranges and mature accelerates extinction. We also found that when habitat degradation impacts both the primary adult and juvenile resource bases, this can have marked synergistic effects on threatening population viability. By contrast, destroying nesting sites has only a small effect on accelerating the impact of deteriorating prey availability. Through integrating community-level feedback between habitat degradation/change and population dynamics/structure, our approach provides a comparative framework for assessing the relative importance of distinct mechanisms through which habitat degradation ultimately drives extinction risk.