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○ Elsevier BV

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Med's content profile, based on 39 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.03% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
Clinical pathogen adjudication in metagenomic sequencing using a large language model

Wei, M.; Zhao, Y.; Fang, C.; Zhang, S.; Xu, K.; Li, S.; Liu, L.; Pang, Y.; Liang, L.; Deng, Z.; Li, M.

2026-10-21 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.10.16.26361411 medRxiv
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Clinical metagenomic sequencing detects hundreds of organisms whose relevance to infection requires clinicians' manual interpretation. We retrospectively reviewed 4,855 specimens from 19 sampling sites, linked 1.33 million detected organisms to clinical culprit-pathogen determinations, and fine-tuned a large language model on these labels. The model recovered 92.44% of reference culprit calls in the held-out test set and 84.49% in a later cohort. In a blinded re-adjudication of 215 cases, the model matched 90.5% of culprit calls on which both expert reviewers agreed. Adjudication accuracy varied with organism identity and specimen types. mNGS-derived metrics such as read counts or genome coverage alone were insufficient to identify culprit pathogens, and organisms classified as common colonizers could still be judged causative. Certain organisms were frequently co-reported as causative in the same specimen. These findings support further evaluation of human and AI-assisted report review, particularly regarding missed pathogens, excess calls, and differences across specimen types.

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Persistent gut microbiota alterations after ischemic stroke are modifiable by probiotic intervention

Melton, P.; Sorbie, A.; Aho, V. T. E.; Haslinger, C.; Zimmermann, M.; Marut, W.; Jaeger, C.; Wilmes, P.; Benakis, C.; Liesz, A.

2026-10-20 neurology 10.64898/2026.10.15.26365107 medRxiv
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The gut-brain axis has emerged as a critical modulator in neurological diseases, including stroke. While acute post-stroke dysbiosis is well established, it remains unclear whether these alterations persist long-term and can be therapeutically modulated. This study addresses this gap through integrated metagenomic and metabolomic profiling in two independent clinical stroke cohorts, complemented by experimental models. Experimental stroke induced persistent changes in gut microbiota composition and altered short-chain fatty acid profiles. In patients, microbiota composition remained distinct from controls up to three months after ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA), accompanied by persistent reductions in propionic and valeric acid and reduced abundance of Prevotella-associated microbial signatures. We performed a randomized, double-blind interventional trial (PRISE) testing a multispecies probiotic versus placebo, using household members as additional controls. Probiotic intervention led to microbiome compositional changes with increased abundance of beneficial taxa and significantly improved functional recovery. The tested probiotic strains showed anti-inflammatory and antioxidant effects in vitro. These findings suggest that targeted modulation of the microbiome represents a promising therapeutic avenue to improve chronic stroke recovery, warranting validation in larger Phase III clinical trials.

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Renovascular hypertension drives ischemic white matter injury via brain endothelial AT1R signaling

Jin, X.; Kim, H.; Jung, H.; Cui, Y.; Singh, S. S.; Seo, H. G.; Kim, S. E.; Lee, H. W.; Farr, T. D.; Wardlaw, J. M.; Cox, S. R.; Choi, S. H.; Valdes Hernandez, M. d. C.; Choi, J. Y.; Kim, B. G.

2026-10-20 neurology 10.64898/2026.10.15.26365689 medRxiv
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BACKGROUND: White matter hyperintensities (WMHs), the principal imaging manifestation of cerebral small vessel disease, lack an animal model that produces pathology of sufficient magnitude to validate potential therapeutics. We characterized white matter (WM) degeneration in a renovascular hypertension (RVH) rat model, interrogated its mechanism, and tested its relevance in patients. METHODS: RVH was induced by two-kidney, two-clip surgery and assessed by T2-weighted and diffusion MRI, myelin and axonal histology, and blood-brain barrier (BBB) leakage markers. The influence of angiotensin II (Ang II) on barrier function in brain endothelial cells was examined using transendothelial electrical resistance and reactive oxygen species (ROS) assays. Losartan was infused intracerebroventricularly to block brain AT1R (Ang II type 1 receptor) without systemic blood pressure reduction. WMH burden was compared between patients with and without renal artery stenosis, and WMH progression across antihypertensive classes was assessed in the CHALLENGE (Korea), MSS2 (UK), LBC1936 (UK), and SPRINT-MIND-MRI (US) cohorts. RESULTS: Approximately two-thirds of RVH rats developed WMHs that expanded between 7 and 9 weeks, accompanied by reduced fractional anisotropy, demyelination, axonal and mature oligodendrocyte loss, and glial activation. IgG, albumin, and fibrinogen leakage was confined to affected WM. Ang II impaired endothelial barrier function and generated ROS through AT1R. Intracerebroventricular losartan attenuated WM pathology and improved behavior while blood pressure remained comparably elevated. Patients with renal artery stenosis had higher WMH volumes (10.52 versus 6.52 mL; P = 0.035). Angiotensin receptor blocker use was associated with the slowest tertile of annual WMH progression in the Korean cohort (OR, 2.57 [95% CI, 1.20-5.61]) and among White participants in SPRINT-MIND-MRI (OR, 3.52 [95% CI, 1.05-12.29]). CONCLUSIONS: RVH produces prominent ischemic WM degeneration driven by AT1R signaling, identifying a blood pressure-independent therapeutic target with corroborating clinical evidence.

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Severity-stratified, longitudinal cis-eQTL mapping enables high-sensitivity detection of candidate causal genes for critical COVID-19

Chen, E.; Gabernet, G.; Corry, D. B.; Kheradmand, F.; Baden, L. R.; Sekaly, R.-P.; McComsey, G. A.; Haddad, E. K.; Cairns, C. B.; Rouphael, N.; Fernandez-Sesma, A.; Simon, V.; Metcalf, J. P.; Agudelo Higuita, N. I.; Hough, C. L.; Messer, W. B.; Davis, M. M.; Nadeau, K. C.; Pulendran, B.; Maecker, H. T.; Kraft, M.; Bime, C.; Reed, E. F.; Schaenman, J.; Erle, D. J.; Calfee, C. S.; Atkinson, M. A.; Brakenridge, S. C.; Melamed, E.; Ehrlich, L. I. R.; Shaw, A. C.; Hafler, D. A.; Augustine, A. D.; Becker, P. M.; Peters, B.; Ozonoff, A.; Diray-Arce, J.; Levy, O.; Bosinger, S. E.; Eckalbar, W.; IMPACC

2026-10-21 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.10.14.26365529 medRxiv
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Host genetic variation influences heterogeneity in infectious disease severity. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 69 lead single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with critical COVID-19, but most lack known regulatory mechanisms. To date, the genetic cis-regulatory effects of critical COVID-19 GWAS lead SNPs have not been systematically characterized across acute illness and convalescent phases in a COVID-19 specific cohort. Here, performing severity-stratified, longitudinal cis-expression quantitative trait loci (cis-eQTL) mapping and colocalization with critical COVID-19 GWAS signals, we find that host cis-regulatory effects vary across clinical severity and disease phase. We analyzed peripheral blood mononuclear cells from 1,031 patients in the Immunophenotyping Assessment in a COVID-19 Cohort (IMPACC), a prospective multicenter study of adults hospitalized with COVID-19, profiled across 10 timepoints spanning acute illness and convalescence. We identified 23 GWAS lead SNPs that colocalized with cis-eQTLs at 26 candidate causal genes, with 16 detectable only when severity stratification and longitudinal sampling were incorporated. A colocalized, protective allele (chr19:4,717,660) at the TMIGD2 locus upregulated TMIGD2 expression exclusively during the acute phase in the prolonged-critical/fatal cohort, with no detectable effect in the rapid-recovery cohort. Our results show that host genetic effects on critical COVID-19 can be context-dependent, with cis-regulatory effects varying across clinical severity and disease phase. Severity-stratified, longitudinal cis-eQTL designs have greater sensitivity to identify candidate causal genes for critical COVID-19 GWAS associations than single-timepoint cross-sectional studies.

5
Accurate repeat expansion genotyping from whole-genome and real-time targeted nanopore sequencing with Mahi-mahi

Gibson, S. B.; Palmer, R. N.; Hollizeck, S.; Koole, W.; Jeffery, H. M.; Albring, M.; Buchan, J. G.; Cheetham, R. K.; Elferink, M. G.; Goffena, J.; Hamlin, E. J.; Jansen, R.; Lockhart, P. J.; Martin, R.; Miller, A. L.; van Outersterp, I.; Prall, T.; Rosinski, J.; Rowley, S. M.; Sadedin, S.; Sewell, D.; Todd, M.; Zabelkin, A.; Zalusky, M. P. G.; van der Zwaag, B.; Nurk, S.; Juul, S.; van Gassen, K. L. I.; Lunke, S.; Miller, D. E.; Rescheneder, P.

2026-10-20 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.10.16.26365781 medRxiv
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Tandem repeat expansions cause more than 60 Mendelian disorders but are difficult to detect and size accurately with short-read sequencing because of their length and repetitive structure. Long-read sequencing (LRS) resolves these loci directly, yet analytic tooling for nanopore sequencing data has lagged behind that available for other long-read platforms. Here we present Mahi-mahi, a tandem repeat genotyper designed for nanopore reads that reports allele-level repeat length, motif composition, interruptions, and read-level flags for systematic basecalling artifacts. Across six Genome in a Bottle samples, whole-genome and adaptive sampling (real-time targeted) data returned calls within one repeat unit of each other for 829 of 832 alleles, and Mahi-mahi calls were within one repeat unit of orthogonal HiFi data at 95.6% of compared alleles after excluding three loci at which the two tools define the repeat differently. In 245 samples from the 1000 Genomes Project, Mahi-mahi calls were within one repeat unit of assembly-derived calls for 98.6% of 10,927 alleles at 57 loci, and Mahi-mahi distinguished pathogenic from nonpathogenic RFC1 alleles of overlapping size by motif. Across 14 Coriell reference lines, Mahi-mahi identified the expected expansion in every line and agreed with orthogonal assays to within two repeat units at HTT, ATXN1, DMPK, and PABPN1. Finally, in 103 samples from three laboratories, Mahi-mahi detected an expanded allele in all samples in which prior testing had reported a pathogenic expansion, assigned the same category as the referring laboratory for 98% of 180 genotypes, and identified known ATXN1 interruption structure. Our results demonstrate that Mahi-mahi accurately identifies repeat expansions at disease-associated loci and could serve as a single assay to evaluate repeat expansions.

6
First-in-human trial in Burkinabe adults and children of replication-competent, genetically attenuated PfSPZ-LARC2 Vaccine for malaria

Sirima, S. B.; Richie, T. L.; Ouedraogo, A.; Soulama, B. I.; Zou, A. R.; Nebie, I.; KC, N.; Camargo, N.; Goswami, D.; Kabore, J. M. T.; Kirakoya, N.; Mbaiasra, R. K.; Ezinmegnon, S.; Badoum, E. S.; Ouedraogo, S. Y.; Henry, N. B.; Yaro, J. B.; Mabuka, T.; Murshedkar, T.; Abebe, Y.; Perez, D.; James, E. R.; Minkah, N.; Vaughan, A. M.; Laurens, M. B.; Sim, B. K. L.; Kappe, S. H. I.; Tiono, A. B.; Hoffman, S. L.

2026-10-21 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.10.16.26365330 medRxiv
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The World Health Organization has called for malaria vaccines with > 90% efficacy against Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) infection. The live, non-attenuated PfSPZ-CVac (chloroquine) vaccine provides the strongest protection against controlled human malaria infection (CHMI). Its 100% protective efficacy at 12 weeks against genetically distant Pf stems from a highly amplified immune stimulus. After inoculation, each invading sporozoite (SPZ) replicates up to 50,000 times within a hepatocyte. Over six days of development, these parasites express thousands of distinct proteins, presenting a vast and diverse array of antigens to the host immune system. The late liver stage parasites then rupture into the bloodstream, where they are killed by the co-administered drug, chloroquine. To engineer a Pf parasite that develops to the late liver stage like PfSPZ-CVac (chloroquine), but then arrests before transitioning to the blood stage, two genes required for transition from non-pathogenic liver to pathogenic blood stages were identified and deleted, creating late-liver stage arresting, replication-competent (LARC) PfSPZ. In a first-in-human, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial, we assessed PfSPZ-LARC2 Vaccine in 75 malaria-exposed Burkinabe 1- to 48-year-olds. No vaccine-strain breakthrough blood-stage infections were detected; safety and tolerability profiles were similar in vaccinees and placebo recipients; and the highest immunogenicity was observed in the youngest recipients. Based on these findings, PfSPZ-LARC2 Vaccine has progressed to Phase 2 testing with the goal of rapidly advancing this genetically attenuated whole parasite vaccine to licensure and deployment.

7
inClinico Agent for clinical trial endpoint prediction and prospective evaluation

Chen, J.; Duan, C.; Gou, W.; Wang, J.; Zheng, Z.; Leung, H.; Naumov, V.; Sidorenko, D.; Aliper, A.; Ren, F.; Pun, F. W.; Zhavoronkov, A.

2026-10-15 health informatics 10.64898/2026.10.13.26365373 medRxiv
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High attrition rates across clinical drug development impose immense clinical and financial burdens, yet prospectively forecasting whether an individual trial will achieve its primary endpoint remains challenging. Here we present a machine-learning system that predicts clinical trial success across phases I-IV, independently modeling studies with efficacy versus safety/toxicity primary endpoints. To prevent lookahead bias and outcome leakage, models are trained on registration-time features, including target and mechanism-of-action precedent, drug modality and novelty, trial design and operational characteristics, and frozen literature-derived target-choice embeddings. Each prediction yields a continuous Predictive Trial Index (PTI) between 0 and 1 reflecting success probability. On a test set of trials initiated in 2021 or later, the efficacy model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.828 (95% CI 0.812-0.845; n = 2,347) and the safety/toxicity model reached 0.809 (95% CI 0.787-0.831; n = 1,485). These models are embedded in inClinico Agent, an agentic AI system integrating frontier large language models (LLMs) with deterministic scoring engines, retrieval tools and specialized clinical skills. We also introduce ClinBench, a prospective benchmark of 2,040 ongoing trials evaluated by inClinico Agent and five frontier LLMs, establishing a leakage-free foundation for tracking prospective predictive accuracy as trials reach completion.

8
BanglaDiaHallu: Hallucinations of large language models and the effect of guideline-grounded retrieval-augmented generation in Bangla diabetes question answering

Nahid, K.; Anam, M.; Saon, M. T. H.; Any, O. H.; Hassan, K. M. R.; Anwar, M. M.

2026-10-16 health informatics 10.64898/2026.10.14.26365587 medRxiv
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Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly consulted for health advice, but they can produce fluent statements that are false or unsupported, known as hallucinations, and this risk is poorly characterised in low-resource languages such as Bangla. We measured hallucinations of locally deployable open-weight LLMs in Bangla diabetes question answering and tested whether retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) grounded in Bangladeshs National Guideline on Diabetes Mellitus reduces them. Forty patient questions spanning six clinical sub-domains were each answered twice, under zero-shot prompting, by Qwen3.5-9B, TigerLLM-9B, Qwen3.6-35B-A3B and Gemma-4-26B-A4B, and by BanglaDiaRAG, which adds hybrid dense (BGE-M3) and sparse (BM25) retrieval from a physician-reviewed Bangla guideline knowledge base to Qwen3.5-9B. Two physicians rated the 400 de-identified responses by consensus for medical accuracy, completeness, safety, readability and reliability on a 0-1 scale, and responses with accuracy below 0.70 were classified as hallucinated. Hallucination rates were 2.5% for Gemma-4-26B-A4B, 3.8% for TigerLLM-9B, 22.5% for Qwen3.6-35B-A3B and 77.5% for Qwen3.5-9B. Guideline grounding lowered the rate of Qwen3.5-9B to 11.3% (difference -66.3 percentage points; 95% CI -76.3 to -55.0) and raised every criterion by 0.24 to 0.38 points (Holm-adjusted p < 0.001). BanglaDiaRAG outscored Qwen3.6-35B-A3B on all five criteria and matched or exceeded TigerLLM-9B, but it remained below Gemma-4-26B-A4B in safety, readability and reliability, and its residual errors were specific, confident and potentially harmful. Guideline grounding can turn a weak general-purpose model into a much safer Bangla diabetes assistant, but the choice of base model mattered as much as retrieval and no configuration was free of hallucination, so clinical oversight remains essential before patient-facing use.

9
Expression and Distribution of Src Kinase Lyn in the Placenta of Patients with Preeclampsia

Heyman, T. D.; Buhimschi, I. A.; Zhao, G.; Medegan Fagla, B.; Buhimschi, C. S.; Ackerman, W. E.

2026-10-21 obstetrics and gynecology 10.64898/2026.10.19.26365934 medRxiv
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Src family kinases (SFKs) constitute a major non-receptor tyrosine kinase class that regulate processes important for pregnancy. We profiled placental SFKs to assess cell-specific expression, tissue localization, and clinical associations in early-onset preeclampsia (PE). Placental SFK transcripts were analyzed using bulk RNA sequencing discovery (GSE203507; n=15 PE, n=15 controls) and external validation (GSE114691; n=40 PE, n=21 controls) cohorts. Single-cell and single-nucleus RNA sequencing atlases mapped cell-specific expression. Computational deconvolution and causal mediation analyses were applied to bulk datasets. Findings were cross-validated by real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR; n=9 early-onset PE, n=7 controls) and immunohistochemistry (IHC). Transcriptomic data showed that LYN was the sole SFK member consistently elevated in early-onset PE placentas across discovery (1.8-fold, FDR<0.01) and validation cohorts (2.2-fold, FDR<0.001). Elevation was verified by qPCR (p<0.0001) and remained significant after adjusting for clinical covariates. Placental LYN abundance correlated positively with maximum antepartum maternal systolic blood pressure (r=0.63, p<0.01). Single-cell transcriptome atlases demonstrated LYN enrichment in myeloid lineages, extravillous trophoblasts, and syncytiotrophoblast (SCT). Deconvolution and mediation analyses indicated that altered tissue composition and increased per-cell expression each accounted for approximately half of the PE-associated LYN increase. IHC localized Lyn protein to Hofbauer macrophages and the apical microvillar SCT membrane in PE placentas. We conclude that placental LYN expression is selectively elevated in early-onset PE and correlates with maternal blood pressure severity. Lyn localization to trophoblasts and placental immune cells suggests potential roles in mediating inflammation and hypoxia-associated signaling in PE pathogenesis.

10
AI-Empowered Multimodal Data Integration and Knowledge Discovery for Pharmacovigilance

Li, Y.; Zhou, H.; Yeh, F.-Y.; Sun, Z.; Zheng, J.; Alzaidi, S.; Guan, H.; Li, J.; Seger, D. L.; Wang, L.; Li, M.; Li, X.; Chen, T.; Plasek, J. M.; Li, H.; Jiang, A.; Hong, P.; Li, F.; Zhang, W.; Cui, L.; Bates, D. W.; Zhou, L.; He, Y.; Tao, C.

2026-10-21 health informatics 10.64898/2026.10.20.26365969 medRxiv
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Biomedical artificial intelligence (AI) increasingly relies on heterogeneous data sources, yet differences in data structure, terminology, evidence quality, and provenance complicate their integration into reliable knowledge resources. Here, we develop an evidence-aware framework for processing and integrating heterogeneous pharmacovigilance data from FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS) reports, biomedical literature, clinical trials, and electronic health records in Mass General Brigham. The framework combines large language model (LLM)-based information extraction, ontology-driven semantic normalization, cross-source evidence assessment, statistical and machine learning-based prioritization, and ingredient-based adverse drug event (ADE) relationship inference to transform heterogeneous evidence into a structured and evidence-based knowledge resource. The constructed knowledge system contains 11,588 drug nodes, 44,843 ingredient nodes, 3,275 ADE nodes, 993 indication nodes, and more than 2.47 million relationships, with each drug-ADE relationship assigned a confidence score. We further developed a drug-level web interface for accessing the knowledge resource and validated its utility in downstream AI tasks. Specifically, incorporating the developed knowledge resource improved the comprehensiveness, relevance, and overall quality of LLM-based drug-specific ADE synthesis and improved the precision and F1 score of clinical ADE relation extraction. These results demonstrate that AI-assisted processing combined with evidence-aware curation can transform heterogeneous biomedical evidence into reusable, AI-ready knowledge with explicit provenance and evidence strength information. The framework provides a general strategy for integrating heterogeneous biomedical data to support reproducible knowledge construction and downstream biomedical AI applications.

11
Gut microbiota dysbiosis in adrenoleukodystrophy: a new piece in the puzzle?

Torreni, L.; Schluter, A.; Marti, S.; Ruiz, M.; Velez Santamaria, V.; Rodriguez-Palmero, A.; Artuch, A.; Guilera, C.; Arias, A.; Mochel, F.; Aguilera-Albesa, S.; Cantarin, V.; Casasnovas, C.; Artuch, R.; Koehler, W.; Pujol, A.; FOURCADE, S.

2026-10-20 neurology 10.64898/2026.10.19.26365873 medRxiv
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X-linked adrenoleukodystrophy (X-ALD) is the most common monogenic disorder affecting brain white matter, presenting a broad clinical spectrum from slowly progressive adrenomyeloneuropathy (AMN) to rapidly advancing cerebral demyelination. Factors influencing the variable disease expressivity remain poorly understood. We conducted shotgun metagenomic profiling of fecal samples from X-ALD patients and integrated these data with targeted plasma metabolomic analyses of amino acids and key metabolic intermediates. We identified distinct microbiome-associated metabolic signatures across X-ALD phenotypes. Notably, Bacteroides cellulosilyticus and Helicobacter apodemus abundance were significantly altered in AMN compared with childhood CALD patients. In parallel, X-ALD patients exhibited evidence of microbial metabolic remodeling characterized by altered amino acid metabolism, reduced folate biosynthetic potential, and enrichment of stress-adaptive pathways, including redox-associated functions, glyoxylate shunt activity, lipid A modification, lipopolysaccharide assembly, biofilm adhesin biosynthesis, and curli fiber production. Consistent with these microbial changes, plasma levels of branched-chain amino acids and methionine, as well as serum folate concentrations, were significantly reduced. Importantly, methionine levels showed an inverse correlation with neurofilament light chain (NfL) concentrations in patients with cerebral disease. Our findings reveal a previously unrecognized link between gut microbial metabolic capacity and systemic metabolic alterations in X-ALD. Our results reinforce previous evidence implicating methionine metabolism in disease severity. Collectively, these data support a modulatory role of the microbiota-gut-brain axis in neuroinflammatory and mitochondrial-related processes underlying X-ALD progression and highlight new opportunities for biomarker development and microbiome-informed therapeutic interventions.

12
Epidemiologic shifts predict spatial patterns of measles re-emergence in the United States

Kumar, C. K.; Stoffel, L. A.; Warren, J. L.; Blumberg, S.; Schechter, R.; Bubar, K. M.; Fattah, M.; Kiang, M. V.; Maldonado, Y.; Mordecai, E. A.; Hotez, P. J.; Lipsitch, M.; Lo, N. C.

2026-10-16 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.10.14.26365590 medRxiv
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Globally, measles is re-emerging in countries that have previously achieved elimination, including the United States. As immunization rates decline, characterizing the dynamics and evolving spatial pattern of measles re-emergence is critical to inform the public health response. We analyze annual county-level measles cases and vaccine coverage data in the United States (US) from 2011-2025 and find a shift in measles epidemiology in recent years indicative of re-emergence. While outbreak risk is spatially concentrated, we find that outbreaks are increasingly spreading throughout the broader population and across counties, but targeted interventions are predicted to prevent re-emergence nationwide. During the first decade of this period (2011-2020), outbreaks were only weakly associated with county-level vaccine coverage and predominantly isolated to single counties; however, recently (2021-2025), vaccine coverage has become strongly associated with outbreak size and spread across neighboring counties has increased. These findings suggest that measles transmission is increasingly sustained across the broader population rather than only in socially clustered communities. We developed a spatial statistical model to predict outbreak risk and size in all US counties with validation over 2021-2025; the model predicted counties with [&ge;]10 cases with a sensitivity of 95% (range across 2021-2025: 75-100%) and specificity of 83% (64-98%). Mechanistic models based on county vaccine coverage alone had worse performance, particularly in predicting larger outbreaks. Using the spatial statistical model, we find that prioritizing interventions in the areas of greatest model-predicted risk (e.g., top decile of US counties) was more impactful than state-level interventions (e.g., top five states) or targeting based on low vaccine coverage alone. Achieving even modest (5 percentage point) increases in vaccine coverage in counties in the top decile of model-predicted risk reduced long-term measles risk nationwide by over 90%. Together, these findings demonstrate that predictive risk modeling to inform spatially targeted interventions can likely mitigate the re-emergence of vaccine-preventable diseases.

13
AI-Assisted Interpretation of Neurologic Autoantibody Cell-Based Assays

Qi, Z.; Cao, Z.; Tan, H.; Tang, B.; Shi, S. X.; Jia, R.; Yao, Y.; Chen, J.; Zhang, Z.; Wan, J.; Zheng, P.

2026-10-19 neurology 10.64898/2026.10.16.26365578 medRxiv
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Neurologic autoantibody cell-based assay images are difficult to interpret when fluorescence is weak, focal or dominated by background signal. We developed a visual artificial intelligence overlay that transfers detected cell boundaries from the structural channel to the antibody-staining image and evaluated standalone model concordance and its association with reader classifications. The analysis used 2 763 records for model development and 499 held-out records spanning 14 antibody targets. Four readers assessed the held-out records first without assistance and then with the boundary overlay and model category available. The selected model agreed with the reader-derived three-class reference in 85.2% of records, but recall was lowest for weak-positive or equivocal records. Reader agreement increased in the assisted session, and almost all revised ratings moved towards the model category. The combined display may support consistent visual review while also creating a risk of model-directed anchoring; its role as a second-read aid requires independent validation.

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High definition longitudinal spatial atlas of psoriasis reveals SPRR2F+ keratinocytes and distinct tissue-resolution trajectories under IL-17 and IL-23 inhibition

Sezin, T.; Oktafina Prayitno, N.; Gupta, Y.; Mousavi, S.; Tang, X.; Bivona, D. L.; Zirpel, H.; Staender, S.; De Luca, D. A.; Papara, C.; Pommerien, L.; Thaci, D.

2026-10-21 dermatology 10.64898/2026.10.21.26365789 medRxiv
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How inflammation is established and resolved within tissues remains a fundamental question in human biology. Psoriasis is a chronic inflammatory skin disease driven by the IL-23/IL-17 pathway, with IL-17 pathway targeting biologics producing more rapid clinical improvement than IL-23 inhibitors. This difference raises the question of how IL-17 and IL-23 inhibition differentially remodel the cellular and transcriptional landscape of psoriatic skin during resolution. Here, we generated a longitudinal spatial atlas of plaque psoriasis using 2 micron high-definition spatial transcriptomics (HD-SPT), profiling 42 matched biopsies from 11 biologic treatment-naive patients before and during IL-17- or IL-23-targeted therapy. By integrating HD-SPT with a single-cell RNA-sequencing (sc-RNAseq) reference atlas, we resolved the cellular composition and spatial organization of psoriatic skin and mapped its remodeling during treatment. We identified a distinct cluster of SPRR2F+ keratinocytes (KCs) that was spatially restricted to the upper stratum granulosum at the transition to the stratum corneum and was strongly associated with inflamed psoriatic epidermis. SPRR2F+ KCs were enriched for antimicrobial and inflammatory barrier genes, including S100A8, S100A9, LCN2, IL36G, and PI3, and their abundance correlated with disease activity during treatment. In psoriasis patient-derived human epidermal KCs (P-HEK), SPRR2F knockdown attenuated inflammatory and antimicrobial transcriptional responses, supporting a functional role for SPRR2F in sustaining the inflammatory KC response in psoriasis. Longitudinal profiling further revealed distinct trajectories of tissue remodeling following IL-17 and IL-23 inhibition. Following IL-17 inhibition, SPRR2F+ KCs and their characteristic transcriptional signature resolved rapidly, whereas IL-23 inhibitors produced more gradual resolution of KC-centered transcriptional changes accompanied by broader immune and stromal remodeling. Together, these findings established the first HD-SPT atlas of a human skin disease and revealed distinct cellular and transcriptional trajectories of psoriatic skin during therapeutic resolution, identifying SPRR2F as a regulator of persistent KC inflammation.

15
Wildfire smoke leaves a large five-year imprint on mortality in the United States

Zhang, W.; Su, H.; Ni, R.; Tao, S.; Lelieveld, J.; Cheng, Y.

2026-10-16 occupational and environmental health 10.64898/2026.10.15.26365428 medRxiv
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Wildfire smoke poses a growing health risk worldwide, yet the magnitude and temporal evolution of mortality after episodic exposure remain poorly resolved, limiting burden assessment. Using monthly county-level wildfire PM2.5 and mortality data from the United State, we exploit episodic exposure contrasts to deconvolve overlapping mortality responses and recover the impulse-response function. The excess mortality response peaks approximately three years after an exposure pulse and subsides by five years. We estimate 1.7 (95% uncertainty interval: 1.1-2.3) million smoke-associated deaths during 2011-2023, approximately ten times estimates using long-term ambient PM2.5 mortality relative risks. Circulatory and respiratory diseases contribute comparably and dominate this burden. Responses are markedly greater among adults [&ge;]65 years; during the COVID-19 pandemic, population-wide cumulative responses are significantly higher over at least the first seven months after exposure. Reducing wildfire smoke exposure can thus yield substantial health benefits over multiple years, particularly when population vulnerability is heightened.

16
Characterization of de novo structural variants in trios with orofacial clefts

Robinson, K. R.; Curtis, S. W.; Kurtas, N. E.; Sanchis-Juan, A.; Manchel, A.; Adeyemo, W. L.; Beaty, T. H.; Butali, A.; Buxo Martinez, C. J.; Cutler, D. J.; Epstein, M. P.; Feingold, E.; Gowans, L. J.; Hecht, J. T.; Moreno Uribe, L.; Padilla, C. D.; Shaw, G. M.; Weinberg, S. M.; Murray, J. C.; Cotney, J.; Talkowski, M.; Marazita, M. L.; Brand, H.; Leslie-Clarkson, E. J.

2026-10-21 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.10.16.26365772 medRxiv
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Structural variants (SVs) are larger genetic rearrangements such as deletions, duplications, and insertions and other forms of structural alterations. Given their large size, they can have an outsized effect on phenotype, however, the contribution of SVs to the genetic architecture of orofacial clefts (OFCs) is not well understood. In this study, we sought to better understand the contribution SVs to OFC risk by characterizing de novo SVs (dnSVs) in 1,549 probands with an OFC. Overall, we called 375 dnSVs in 307 probands (0.242 dnSVs per genome). The dnSV rate per genome was highest among individuals with cleft lip (CL, 0.29), followed by cleft lip and palate (CLP, 0.25) and cleft palate only (CP, 0.20), though differences across subtypes were not statistically significant. There were also no differences between sex or syndromic status, but we did identify a significant difference in the rate of duplications across OFC subtypes (p=0.005). Compared to CP (0.028), duplication rates were significantly higher for both CL (0.121; p = 0.003) and CLP (0.096; p = 0.002), suggesting a potential etiologic mechanism for CL/P. We systematically curated each dnSV to classify its potential for influencing OFC risk by examining the genes and regulatory elements disrupted by the SV and evidence for their role in craniofacial development or OFCs. We identified 22 dnSVs in regions associated with recurrent genomic disorders, including seven deletions and one duplication of the well-established OFC risk locus 22q11.2. Additionally, we identified 12 large (>1Mb) SVs, with eight meeting criteria for a likely pathogenic classification based on total gene involvement, and seven dnSVs disrupting well-known genes associated with autosomal dominant forms of OFC. The most notable was SATB2, for which we found four dnSVs, all in individuals with CP. Next, by combining evidence from recurrent dnSVs and de novo single nucleotide variants with Hi-C contact maps and predicted chromatin states from developing craniofacial tissues, we found new candidate genes for OFC risk including FHAD1, NBEA, NR3C2, and SPHKAP. Overall, dnSVs classified as likely pathogenic accounted for putative molecular diagnoses in approximately 1.67% of the cohort, with an additional 0.96% having variants of unknown significance with plausible risk for OFCs. Our results support dnSVs as an important component of OFC etiology and suggest their inclusion in analyses may improve diagnostic yield for affected individuals.

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Accuracy and confidence calibration of large language models on neurology board-style questions

Graham, N. S.; Auger, S. D.; Attaallah, B.; Batla, A.; Scott, G.

2026-10-19 neurology 10.64898/2026.10.17.26365807 medRxiv
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Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly evaluated for clinical tasks, but safe use requires reliable uncertainty estimates as well as high accuracy. We tested eight general-purpose LLMs on 100 validated neurology board-style multiple-choice questions and compared three confidence signals: self-reported confidence, critique-implied confidence from an independent model instance, and consistency-based confidence from repeated sampling. Accuracy varied from 45% (Llama 3.1 8B) to 92% (Gemini 3 Flash/Pro), but confidence was generally overestimated, particularly in lower-accuracy models. Consistency-based confidence provided the best discrimination between correct and incorrect answers (pooled AUROC 0.74), outperforming self-report, although calibration differences between methods were not significant. Calibration should therefore be reported alongside accuracy when clinical LLMs are evaluated.

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Serum PFOS Concentration and Isomer Composition in Relation to Depressive Symptoms in Young Adults

Bi, Y.; Liu, Y.; Li, Y.; Bu, H.

2026-10-15 occupational and environmental health 10.64898/2026.10.14.26365394 medRxiv
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Total serum perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) concentration and its isomer composition describe different aspects of internal exposure, but their respective associations with depressive symptoms remain uncertain. We examined adults aged 18-25 years in NHANES August 2021-August 2023 using survey-weighted models of the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9). Total measured PFOS was the sum of linear PFOS and pooled monomethyl-branched PFOS; composition was their log-ratio. The analytic cohort included 169 participants, with 147 complete cases for core adjustment. Median total PFOS was 1.70 ng/mL, the median linear fraction was 72.2%, and the weighted prevalence of PHQ-9 [&ge;]10 was 22.6%. In the joint adjusted model, a doubling of total PFOS at fixed composition corresponded to -0.49 PHQ-9 points (95% CI, -1.65 to 0.68); a doubling of the linear-to-branched ratio at fixed total corresponded to 0.21 points (-1.94 to 2.36). Algebraic rescaling across the reported interquartile ranges yielded differences of -0.58 points (-1.95 to 0.81) for total PFOS and 0.13 points (-1.16 to 1.41) for composition. The inverse continuous-score association weakened with adjustment, whereas the screening odds ratio primarily lost precision. Excluding three observations with an isomer below detection shifted both joint coefficients. The data therefore do not establish an independent composition association or equivalent isomer effects. Experimental evidence supports candidate oxidative, inflammatory, and synaptic pathways, but differential protein binding and elimination prevent a serum composition ratio from being interpreted directly as brain dose or toxicity. Larger longitudinal analyses with isomer-resolved exposure and toxicokinetic measurements are needed to test these pathways.

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Genetic Variants Associated with Placental Abnormalities in Stillbirths

Workalemahu, T.; Nicholas, T. J.; Quinlan, A. R.; Yang, X.; Griffin, L. B.; Leisher, S.; Blue, N. R.; Arthurs, A. L.; Page, J. M.; Branch, D. W.; Camp, N. J.; Jorde, L. B.; Roberts, C. T.; Jessica, G. L.; Wapner, R.; Kingdom, J.; Gibbins, K. J.; Parast, M. M.; Reddy, U. M.; Silver, R. M.

2026-10-21 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.10.19.26365933 medRxiv
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Abstract Background: Placental insufficiency (PI), characterized by impaired placental function, is a leading cause of stillbirth. Although rare coding variants are known to cause a subset of stillbirths, their contribution to PI is poorly understood. Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of stillbirth cases (N=292) of the Stillbirth Collaborative Research Network study with exome sequencing available on postmortem placental or fetal samples. PI was defined by standardized placental pathological lesions (e.g., maternal vascular malperfusion) and prespecified clinical criteria for placental dysfunction. Candidate gene-based rare-variant burden analysis was performed using the Sequence Kernel Association Test-Optimal framework, focusing on evolutionarily constrained developmental and placental-function genes. Primary analysis compared stillbirths with and without placental vascular malperfusion. Similar comparisons by clinical PI and other placental pathological lesions were conducted in secondary analysis. Results: Stillbirths with PI phenotypes demonstrated different patterns of genetic variation than stillbirths without PI. Specifically, we observed nominal differential enrichment of constrained variants in biologically prioritized placental-function genes, regulating extravillous trophoblast invasion and spiral artery remodeling (CTNND2, PHACTR1, SLIT1, VEGFA), placental angiogenesis (IGF2R, TEK), mitochondrial homeostasis (OPA1), and fetal growth (DLK1, GNAS). Secondary analyses on specific placental pathological lesions suggested recurrent enrichment of genes within similar placental developmental pathways. Conclusions: We observed nominal differential enrichment of constrained developmental and placental-function genes in stillbirths with PI compared to stillbirths without PI. The observed genetic signals across PI phenotypes suggest shared biological pathways underlie placental dysfunction. Our findings advance genotype-phenotype characterization and help prioritize candidate pathways for larger collaborative genomic and functional studies to improve stillbirth risk stratification and prevention.

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Interictal functional ultrasound imaging in human epilepsy resection and responsive neurostimulation surgery

Agyeman, K. A.; Lee, D.; Lee, B. P.; McGinn, R. J.; Abedi, A.; Russin, J.; Wu, K.; Choi, w.; Liu, C.; Christopoulos, V. N.

2026-10-20 neurology 10.64898/2026.10.15.26365563 medRxiv
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Over 30% of patients with epilepsy are refractory to medication and may require surgical or neuromodulation-based intervention. Accurate localization of seizure-onset zones (SOZ) and assessment of treatment-associated brain responses remain major clinical challenges. Current workflows may involve invasive intracranial monitoring, prolonged hospitalization, adjustment of anti-seizure medications, and seizure capture to localize the SOZ, while opportunities for complementary intraoperative functional assessment remain limited. We used intraoperative functional ultrasound imaging (fUSI) to characterize interictal (i.e., non-seizure) cortical activity in nine patients with drug-resistant focal epilepsy and to assess treatment-associated brain responses following SOZ resection and responsive neurostimulation (RNS). fUSI signals were acquired directly from the exposed cortex during standard-of-care surgery. We developed six ultrafast power Doppler-based interictal activity markers (IaMs) to distinguish SOZ from peri-resection zone (PRZ) cortex and to quantify treatment-associated changes. The IaMs revealed distinct interictal hemodynamic dynamics between SOZ and PRZ cortex. Following SOZ resection, all six markers changed significantly within the surrounding PRZ. RNS also induced robust, stimulation paradigm-dependent modulation of cortical hemodynamic dynamics. Notably, RNS and surgical resection produced concordant directional changes across five of the six IaMs, despite representing fundamentally different therapeutic interventions. Together, these findings demonstrate the feasibility of intraoperative fUSI for characterizing and distinguishing interictal dynamics within SOZ and PRZ cortex and assessing treatment-associated cortical responses during human epilepsy surgery. Furthermore, fUSI could provide a complementary high-resolution functional imaging approach alongside established clinical methods for SOZ localization and intraoperative functional assessment.